ZWK's 2023 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

I haven't looked as closely at the guys after this, who I see as day 3 NFL picks, but if I were to keep going it would be something like:
... Jared Wayne

Ian Cummings
@IC_Draft
Pitt WR Jared Wayne is a big-time sleeper in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Measured at 6’3”, 208 pounds with 32 3/8” arms at the Hula Bowl.
Caught 60 passes for 1,062 yards and 5 TDs in 2022.
Now jumps 41.5” in the vertical.
Stock rising!
Nick Farabaugh@Nick_Farabaugh
Another gaudy number. 41 1/2 inches for WR Jared Wayne.
>>> LINK to video

 

[ZWK]

Matt Harmon's 2023 Reception Perception numbers are out for the first 9 twelve WRs in this class.

I've put his numbers together into an overall open rate over expected. Here's how the WRs in this class compare to the past two WR classes, with tier breaks where there are gaps in the rankings.

2021 DeVonta Smith
2021 Jaylen Waddle
2022 Chris Olave

2022 Garrett Wilson

2022 Jahan Dotson
2023 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2021 Elijah Moore
2021 Rashod Bateman
2022 Drake London
2022 Skyy Moore

2022 Jameson Williams
2021 Ja'Marr Chase
2023 Zay Flowers
2023 Jayden Reed
2023 Josh Downs
2022 George Pickens

2021 Dyami Brown
2023 Jordan Addison
2022 Jalen Tolbert
2023 Quentin Johnston
2021 Terrace Marshall
2023 Marvin Mims

2023 Cedric Tillman
2022 Alec Pierce
2022 Treylon Burks
2021 Amari Rodgers
2023 Jonathan Mingo
2021 Tylan Wallace
2023 A.T. Perry

2021 Rondale Moore
2021 Amon-Ra St. Brown

2023 Jalin Hyatt
2022 Justyn Ross
2022 John Metchie

2021 Kadarius Toney

2023 Rashee Rice

These are adjusted for routes & for coverage. e.g. I compare Quentin Johnston's open rate on post routes with the overall open rate of all of these receivers on post routes, and credit him for how much higher or lower his open rate is, and then average that across all routes based on how often Johnston ran each route. Then I do the same for open rate by coverage (man, zone, press, double), which is the other breakdown that Harmon gives (this basically gives the same results, and I average the two together). I also do a strength of schedule adjustment at the end, which (e.g.) boosts guys who got open against SEC defenses relative guys who got open at the same rate against Sun Belt defenses.

This looks pretty predictive, with more successful NFL WRs coming from the top trio than from the bottom half. And this class doesn't look good, with only JSN landing in the top third.

Edit: Added Marvin Mims, Rashee Rice, and A.T. Perry whose data have been added to the site.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Matt Harmon's 2023 Reception Perception numbers are out for the first 9 WRs in this class.

I've put his numbers together into an overall open rate over expected. Here's how the WRs in this class compare to the past two WR classes, with tier breaks where there are gaps in the rankings.

2021 DeVonta Smith
2021 Jaylen Waddle
2022 Chris Olave

2022 Garrett Wilson

2022 Jahan Dotson
2023 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2021 Elijah Moore
2021 Rashod Bateman
2022 Drake London
2022 Skyy Moore

2022 Jameson Williams
2021 Ja'Marr Chase
2023 Zay Flowers
2023 Jayden Reed
2023 Josh Downs
2022 George Pickens

2021 Dyami Brown
2023 Jordan Addison
2022 Jalen Tolbert
2023 Quentin Johnston
2021 Terrace Marshall

2023 Cedric Tillman
2022 Alec Pierce
2022 Treylon Burks
2021 Amari Rodgers
2023 Jonathan Mingo
2021 Tylan Wallace

2021 Rondale Moore
2021 Amon-Ra St. Brown

2023 Jalin Hyatt
2022 Justyn Ross
2022 John Metchie

2021 Kadarius Toney

These are adjusted for routes & for coverage. e.g. I compare Quentin Johnston's open rate on post routes with the overall open rate of all of these receivers on post routes, and credit him for how much higher or lower his open rate is, and then average that across all routes based on how often Johnston ran each route. Then I do the same for open rate by coverage (man, zone, press, double), which is the other breakdown that Harmon gives (this basically gives the same results, and I average the two together). I also do a strength of schedule adjustment at the end, which (e.g.) boosts guys who got open against SEC defenses relative guys who got open at the same rate against Sun Belt defenses.

This looks pretty predictive, with more successful NFL WRs coming from the top trio than from the bottom half. And this class doesn't look good, with only JSN landing in the top third.

Thanks for this.
I disagree that only tip 3 tiers predict success. That 4th tier has a stud and 2 potentials in Jameson and Pickens. That tier to me looks promising so based on that:
JSN, Flowers, Reed, Down.

 

[joey]

Matt Harmon's 2023 Reception Perception numbers are out for the first 9 WRs in this class.

I've put his numbers together into an overall open rate over expected. Here's how the WRs in this class compare to the past two WR classes, with tier breaks where there are gaps in the rankings.

2021 DeVonta Smith
2021 Jaylen Waddle
2022 Chris Olave

2022 Garrett Wilson

2022 Jahan Dotson
2023 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2021 Elijah Moore
2021 Rashod Bateman
2022 Drake London
2022 Skyy Moore

2022 Jameson Williams
2021 Ja'Marr Chase
2023 Zay Flowers
2023 Jayden Reed
2023 Josh Downs
2022 George Pickens

2021 Dyami Brown
2023 Jordan Addison
2022 Jalen Tolbert
2023 Quentin Johnston
2021 Terrace Marshall

2023 Cedric Tillman
2022 Alec Pierce
2022 Treylon Burks
2021 Amari Rodgers
2023 Jonathan Mingo
2021 Tylan Wallace

2021 Rondale Moore
2021 Amon-Ra St. Brown

2023 Jalin Hyatt
2022 Justyn Ross
2022 John Metchie

2021 Kadarius Toney

These are adjusted for routes & for coverage. e.g. I compare Quentin Johnston's open rate on post routes with the overall open rate of all of these receivers on post routes, and credit him for how much higher or lower his open rate is, and then average that across all routes based on how often Johnston ran each route. Then I do the same for open rate by coverage (man, zone, press, double), which is the other breakdown that Harmon gives (this basically gives the same results, and I average the two together). I also do a strength of schedule adjustment at the end, which (e.g.) boosts guys who got open against SEC defenses relative guys who got open at the same rate against Sun Belt defenses.

This looks pretty predictive, with more successful NFL WRs coming from the top trio than from the bottom half. And this class doesn't look good, with only JSN landing in the top third.

Thanks for this.
I disagree that only tip 3 tiers predict success. That 4th tier has a stud and 2 potentials in Jameson and Pickens. That tier to me looks promising so based on that:
JSN, Flowers, Reed, Down.

Was going to say the same thing about tier 4.

thanks for the great work as always, @ZWK

 

[ZWK]

My personal top 11 WRs at this stage:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Quentin Johnston

Jalin Hyatt
Jordan Addison
Marvin Mims
Zay Flowers
Josh Downs

Kayshon Boutte
Trey Palmer
Nathaniel Dell
Cedric Tillman

I've been watching more Jalin Hyatt, and (like many people who have watched Tennessee's offense) I've been struck by how much that offense helped him get big plays.

In this video of every Hyatt touchdown, by my count 7 of his 15 TDs this year were primarily a result of blown coverage / being schemed open: his first TD against Akron, his first 2 against Alabama, his second TD against UT Martin, both of his 2 TDs against Kentucky, and his TD against Missouri. (I've linked to a couple of the individual game videos because some of these are easier to see on the replay angles.)

Some of those 7 still depended on Hyatt to do something, e.g. the two blown coverages by Alabama were both slight lapses which he had to use his speed to take advantage of. And Hyatt is not the only receiver who has ever benefited from a blown coverage or being schemed open. But we're still talking about an awful lot of production which didn't require all that much from him, 7 catches for 324(?) yards and 7 touchdowns, including 6 30+ yard gains and 4 40+ yard gains. Thanks to 1 HB pass, 2 routes out of the backfield where the defense lost track of him, 2 switch routes that broke the zone coverage and 1 that created a pick against man coverage, and 1 play where another receiver's motion at the snap froze both deep defenders.

To his credit, even if we remove those 7 plays he's still left with 79 yards per game, 11.5 YPT, and 8 touchdowns in 12 games, which is still pretty good (all three beat out Quentin Johnston). And those other 8 touchdowns include some nice plays where he's beating a defender to get open deep. But a pretty good final season after not doing much his first two years would not be that strong of an overall production profile. And there were also some similar plays that didn't go for touchdowns, like a 38-yarder against Kentucky which was schemed up basically the same way as his two touchdowns in that game (a switch route against zone coverage, where the first receiver started outside & cleared things out by running deep inside, Hyatt followed and went deep down the sideline, a Kentucky CB stayed underneath and let Hyatt go by because he assumed he had help deep, but the deep coverage followed the clearout route and left Hyatt wide open).

This has me less optimistic about Hyatt than I was a month, along with his poor Reception Perception showing. His profile looks a lot weaker - definitely not at the top of that tier of WR3-7, maybe at the bottom of it, and maybe that tier should be split up. I guess I'm coming around to the consensus view which has Addison & Flowers a tier ahead of Hyatt & Downs. That leaves Mims as the one guy who I'm significantly higher than consensus on, where I have him somewhere among those four guys and the consensus has him at least a tier back from them.

 

[Tau837]

Just discovered this thread. Love it. On this:

I guess Pollard played some WR in college; I'd forgotten about that & probably shouldn't have included him here.

I noticed you had Hines in your lists, and he played WR in his first college season before moving to RB.

 

[ZWK]

Cedric Tillman is a big receiver in a class full of small WRs. He has averageish athleticism (which is fine at his size), and had a good year in 2021 by my formula so he meets the "did he ever have a good season?" bar. On the other hand, he's a 5th year senior who only had 1 good season out of 5, and has just 1622 yards over his 5 year career. He has a pretty good excuse for not producing more in 2022, as an ankle injury caused him to miss half the season and meant that he was at less than 100% for some of the games he played. But a month or two with an ankle injury is not such a good excuse for why his career production over 5 years wasn't better. That mainly comes down to his first 3 years, when he barely saw the field behind various combinations of Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, Josh Palmer, Velus Jones, Jalin Hyatt, and Brandon Johnson, and was left competing for scraps with guys like Ramel Keyton and Tyler Byrd. Also, a big part of what made his 2021 season good by my formula was very good efficiency numbers (including 12.0 YPT), but I'm coming around to the view that it's better to look at career efficiency numbers rather than single seasons, and for his career he's only at 9.7 YPT which is a bit below average for a rd1-3 WR. Looking at some peripheral stats, he has been above average at contested catches & faced a pretty high number of contested catch opportunities, he's been below average after the catch, and he's been a bit below average at getting open according to Reception Perception. The NFL Mock Draft Database consensus board currently has him as the 73rd pick of the NFL draft; on the whole I think I like him slightly less than that and would've had him in the rd3-4 range.

Nathaniel Dell is another 5th year senior, with some major differences from Tillman. The most obvious is that he's tiny - in a class full of small WRs, he's the smallest (5'8.4, 165 lb, 24.8 BMI), though, to be fair, he's not Tutu Atwell small (Atwell was 155 lb. at a similar height). He also has a very different production profile than Tillman, starting off at non-FBS schools but producing every year to end up with 4285 yards and 43 touchdowns over 5 years. He started at Alabama A&M where he had 91 ypg as a true freshman but only played 4 games due to injury, then transferred to Independence Community College where he dominated the receiving corps with 44% of the team's receiving yards, then on to the FBS in yr3 with the Big 12 Houston Cougars for their 8-game covid season where he led the team with 428 receiving yards (20% MS) but was behind Marquez Stevenson in the 5 games that Stevenson played. In 2021 & 2022 he had big numbers, 90/1329/12 and 109/1398/17, including 23 red zone touchdowns over 2 years (which is a ton: Devonta Smith & Justin Jefferson are the only other FBS players to have 11+ red zone receiving TDs in a single year over the past 5 seasons). Though his receiving totals benefited from Houston's pass-heavy offense - his YPRR at Houston is averageish for a rd1-3 WR even though his per-game numbers are great - and his efficiency numbers are below average too (9.3 YPT, which is a bit worse than Tillman). Dell looks dynamic on the field, but his athletic testing numbers weren't great (4.49 40, 10'1" broad jump) and his after the catch numbers are averageish (slightly below avg YAC, slightly above average MT rate). And the big negative, obviously, is his lack of size. Though it seems a bit strange that the fantasy community seems to be dismissing him based on his size while waving off size concerns about some of the slightly-less-small WRs in this class, e.g. Josh Downs measured in just 0.75" and 6 pounds bigger than Dell at the combine (Downs does play bigger than Dell at the catch point, IMO, but not after the catch). NFL folks seem less concerned about Dell's size than fantasy folks; he's 85th on the Mock Draft Database consensus board. I have him & Tillman pretty close, which means that I'm much more likely to end up with Dell on my roster given how drafts are going.

 

[ZWK]

Some pro day 40 times from Draftscout (with Fusue's time in parentheses, where available)

RB
4.45 Israel Abanikanda (4.50)
4.45 Tank Bigsby (4.50)
4.46 Xazavian Valladay
4.51 Zach Evans (4.58)
4.54 Tyjae Spears (4.50)
4.62 Eric Gray
4.63 Christopher Brooks
4.69 Toa Taua
4.82 Travis Dye

WR
4.52 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.55)
4.57 Puka Nacua
4.73 Jared Wayne

I'm doing a weighted average with some slight adjustments for the players who have times from both draftscout & Fusue. That results in treating Abanikanda, Bigsby, and Valladay's times as basically the same (equivalent to about a 4.47 at the combine), and Evans, Spears, and Smith-Njigba's times as also all basically the same (equivalent to about a 4.54 at the combine).

Abanikanda's time, according to draftscout & Fusue, is much slower than initial reports and pretty close to what I'd expected him to run before the combine.

Also, great verticals at the Pitt pro day from both Abanikanda (41") & Jared Wayne (40"). And Zach Evans apparently weighed in at 208 at his pro day, after showing up to the combine at only 202.

Kendre Miller (MCL), DeWayne McBride (hamstring), and Sean Tucker ("medical exclusion") haven't worked out. Reports are that McBride is still planning to. Tucker released a video of some pre-combine workouts but I find it kinda sketchy; Fusue's frame-counting estimate of his 40 time on the video is over 4.50 when the video claims he ran sub 4.40. Tucker's track times suggests that his speed is in the mid to high 4.4s.

Pro day workouts were bad news for everyone who ran slower than 4.60 (Gray, Brooks, Taua, and especially Wayne & Dye), and the lack of a workout is a concern for McBride since I have questions about his athleticism. Generally good news for everyone who draftscout has a 4.52 or faster (Abanikanda, Bigsby, Valladay, Evans, JSN), since almost all of them were faster than I'd expected. Abanikanda had the one fast 40 which was not faster than I'd expected, but his jumps made his pro day an overall positive.

Main effects of these pro days on my RB rankings will be to add Xazavian Valladay to the Deneric Prince + receiving back tier. And they'll probably affect the order of the big tier ahead of that; I still need to go through and think about the order within that pretty tightly packed tier. That's the tier with 5 of the guys I've mentioned here (Abanikanda, Bigsby, Evans, McBride, Tucker) plus Chase Brown & Roschon Johnson. (I had Evans below that tier when I posted here immediately after the combine, but moved him up to that tier the next day after deciding that I'd overreacted to his low combine weight & lack of workout, and after his pro day it's clear that he does belong on that tier.)

 

[ZWK]

Rashee Rice: My WR formulas are not very high on Rice, because even though he had good volume in his last season (and decent volume over his career), his efficiency was bad. 8.8 career YPT is not good. Also doesn't help that he was a year 4 G5 receiver, and that he just had the one high-volume season. He does have pretty good after-the-catch numbers, but not amazing: 57th percentile YAC/att, 80th percentile MT/att relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. I watched his game against UCF and if anything that lowered my impression of him. Tons of underneath catches that the defense was basically just conceding, and occasionally he'd go deep and they'd throw him a jump ball. Very few plays where defenders were trying to cover him and he was trying to create separation, except for a bunch of hitch routes where the DBs were sorta trying to cover him but (it looks to me) mainly just trying to stay over the top. So the low YPT makes a lot of sense, and I think shows why the high volume numbers aren't that promising for his prospects. Then his Reception Perception came out, and it's awful - I have it as the second-worst out of 91 WR prospects, ahead of only Malachi Dupre. I'm seeing Rice as NFL pick 87 (WR12) on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus board and fantasy rookie WR9 at KTC; I'm out at anything like those prices.

 

[ZWK]

Here are pre-draft ppr generic rookie rankings for this class, which are based only on each player's position and projected draft pick according to the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus board. The first number is an estimate of career fantasy points over baseline, based on historical data (and adjusted for trends - we can have higher expectations of a pick 110 RB now than they would have a decade ago because teams are drafting RBs later). Within each position these are just ranked based on projected NFL draft order, but that points over baseline number shows how steep the dropoff is and makes it possible to compare across positions.

477 RB Bijan Robinson (pick 9)
279 RB Jahmyr Gibbs (pick 30)
265 WR Jaxon Smith (pick 11)
207 WR Quentin Johnston (pick 19)
196 WR Jordan Addison (pick 21)
193 RB Zach Charbonnet (pick 52)
181 TE Michael Mayer (pick 24)
176 WR Zay Flowers (pick 25)
165 TE Dalton Kincaid (pick 27)
158 RB Devon Achane (pick 67)
156 QB Bryce Young (pick 1)
138 RB Tyjae Spears (pick 77)
138 TE Darnell Washington (pick 33)
129 WR Jalin Hyatt (pick 39)
128 QB C.J. Stroud (pick 2)
123 RB Tank Bigsby (pick 86)
118 RB Roschon Johnson (pick 89)
109 QB Anthony Richardson (pick 5)
107 WR Josh Downs (pick 49)
90 RB Israel Abanikanda (pick 110)
86 QB Will Levis (pick 13)
85 TE Luke Musgrave (pick 50)
84 WR Cedric Tillman (pick 65)
83 RB Zach Evans (pick 116)
82 RB Kendre Miller (pick 117)
80 RB Chase Brown (pick 119)
77 WR Marvin Mims (pick 72)
76 RB Sean Tucker (pick 123)
75 WR Rashee Rice (pick 75)
74 WR Nathaniel Dell (pick 76)
72 RB DeWayne McBride (pick 127)
72 WR Tyler Scott (pick 78)
70 RB Kenny McIntosh (pick 129)
67 WR Jonathan Mingo (pick 84)
64 RB Eric Gray (pick 136)
62 TE Sam LaPorta (pick 63)
62 WR A.T. Perry (pick 90)
59 RB Deuce Vaughn (pick 142)
57 WR Jayden Reed (pick 96)
55 TE Tucker Kraft (pick 68)
50 WR Kayshon Boutte (pick 104)
45 QB Hendon Hooker (pick 37)
44 WR Michael Wilson (pick 111)
43 RB Keaton Mitchell (pick 161)
41 WR Xavier Hutchinson (pick 115)
33 WR Trey Palmer (pick 126)
28 RB Mohamed Ibrahim (pick 182)
27 RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (pick 184)
27 TE Luke Schoonmaker (pick 105)
27 WR Parker Washington (pick 138)
23 RB Evan Hull (pick 200)
22 WR Charlie Jones (pick 147)
20 WR Andrei Iosivas (pick 152)
20 TE Zack Kuntz (pick 120)
19 RB Deneric Prince (pick 220)

It's a good year for drafting RBs and fading WRs, at least in the middle rounds of the rookie draft. I'm actually even farther in that direction than this list suggests, since I'm fairly high on some of the mid-round RBs relative to their projected draft slot, but at WR the only day 2 guy I particularly like more than his draft slot is Marvin Mims.

 

[ZWK]

And here's my pre-draft rookie draft board for PPR leagues. This spreadsheet also has my draft board for superflex TE-premium leagues, and if I tinker with my rankings over the next couple days that'll happen in the spreadsheet.

RB Bijan Robinson

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
RB Zach Charbonnet
WR Quentin Johnston

WR Jordan Addison
WR Zay Flowers
QB Anthony Richardson
RB Tyjae Spears
RB Kendre Miller
RB Devon Achane
TE Dalton Kincaid
TE Michael Mayer

RB Tank Bigsby
RB Israel Abanikanda
RB Zach Evans
WR Jalin Hyatt
WR Josh Downs
QB Bryce Young
TE Darnell Washington
QB C.J. Stroud
RB DeWayne McBride
RB Roschon Johnson
WR Marvin Mims
RB Sean Tucker
TE Luke Musgrave
RB Chase Brown
WR Kayshon Boutte
WR Cedric Tillman

QB Will Levis
WR Nathaniel Dell
TE Sam LaPorta
RB Eric Gray
RB Kenny McIntosh
RB Deuce Vaughn
WR Tyler Scott
TE Tucker Kraft
RB Keaton Mitchell
WR Trey Palmer
RB Evan Hull
WR A.T. Perry
WR Rashee Rice
WR Jayden Reed
WR Xavier Hutchinson
WR Michael Wilson
WR Jonathan Mingo

QB Hendon Hooker
RB Deneric Prince
RB Xazavian Valladay
WR Parker Washington
WR Puka Nacua
RB Mohamed Ibrahim
WR Rakim Jarrett
WR Dontayvion Wicks
TE Zack Kuntz
WR Charlie Jones
TE Luke Schoonmaker
WR Andrei Iosivas

 

[ZWK]

Jahmyr Gibbs has a pretty straightforward type: undersized receiving back who's great in space, not so good in traffic.

Great receiving prospect, with speed, hands, elusiveness in space, and production.

Overall rushing efficiency stats are middling - whether they're above average or below average depends on which stat you look at. Better at YPC, YAC/att, MT/att, worse at RYOE, .5FD+TD+20. And if you zoom in to get more detail on his rushing profile, there are some ridiculous splits which fit the space vs. traffic story:

great on perfectly blocked plays, awful on not perfectly blocked plays
great on RPO carries, awful on non-RPO carries
awful in short yardage when he got those carries (and usually his team went with a different RB)

He has an obvious receiving back role in the NFL, which helps his fantasy floor and ceiling. Unlikely to get the goal-line carries. Big questions are 1) whether it will be a huge receiving role (80+ rec per year) or just a standard one, and 2) whether his explosiveness as a runner will be enough to win a good sized rushing role, or if he'll get a mostly receiving-only sort of role like James White. The good news is that some outstanding fantasy backs have had this sort of profile (Ekeler, McCaffrey, Charles, McCoy, Westbrook) and he has two clear paths to high-end production. The bad news is that I don't think that either path to high-end production is the mainline result - things will have to go better than expected for it to work out (or at least better than I expect - I know that a lot of people are higher on Gibbs than I am).

Best type of landing spot for Gibbs would probably be a team that loves to throw to their RBs, like the Payton+Brees Saints did (unfortunately the Sean Payton Broncos don't pick until the third round, otherwise we'd probably see endless mocks sending him there to carry on the line of Bush-Sproles-Kamara). Second best would be a team that is good at creating space for their RBs with RPOs, the threat of QB runs, or scheme, like the Sirianni+Hurts Eagles.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the generic rookie rankings for rd1 picks (fantasy value over baseline, based only on position & draft pick):

495 RB Bijan Robinson ATL 8
429 RB Jahmyr Gibbs DET 12
201 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 20
196 WR Quentin Johnston LAC 21
190 WR Zay Flowers BAL 22
185 WR Jordan Addison MIN 23
175 TE Dalton Kincaid BUF 25
156 QB Bryce Young CAR 1
128 QB C.J. Stroud HOU 2
114 QB Anthony Richardson IND 4

These were pretty close to expectations, and mostly matched my within-position rankings. I had Flowers & Addison flip-flopped (also for fantasy I had & still have Richardson higher than QB3 because running, but this matches my rankings for NFL value).

Jahmyr Gibbs was the one guy who got drafted significantly earlier than expected. But getting this draft capital was good news for most of these guys, even though they were drafted about where we expected, because there was some risk of them falling farther than expected. That's especially true for the quarterbacks Richardson & Stroud, since QB can be very volatile and reports on the non-Young QBs were all over the place this past week.

Smith-Njigba is the one guy on this list with disappointing draft capital, falling to pick 20 after he was projected at pick 11, which is a meaningful drop. He was still the first WR drafted, but he just led the string of consecutive picks rather than having some distance between him & the pack. Obviously not good for the guys who fell out of the first, especially Levis who was being talked about as an early first rounder (and there's a huge drop in QB value from early rd1 to rd2), and to a lesser extent Mayer who is the one other guy who was projected rd1.

Best landing spots for fantasy I think are Johnston to the Chargers (because Herbert), Richardson to the Colts (because Streichen), and Kincaid to the Bills (because Josh Allen). Having Dawson Knox there is a negative for Kincaid - he is signed for the next 4 years, and the first 2 of those years are guaranteed - but the ceiling is still there, especially for year 3 and beyond. Competing for targets with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler isn't great for Johnston, but that could look very different a year from now. The advantage of having good QBs who are prolific passers outweighs those negatives.

Baltimore maybe the worst of these WR landing spots, if you expect them to stay near the bottom of the league in passing attempts, though there's some chance that they'll pass more going forward. Also not great to be basically guaranteed to not be your team's top receiver in Minnesota. And the target competition in Seattle is worse than in LAC, and likely to last for longer.

Not sure yet what to think about the Detroit landing spot for Gibbs. Seems like the default path is for a Gibbs-Montgomery committee to replace the Swift-Williams committee, maybe with similarish results (except for the unsustainably high number of short yardage scores). That'd mean something like high-end RB2 production. But I think there's some upside beyond that in the passing game, if the Sean Payton coaching tree blossoms and Gibbs plays better than Swift & gets on Campbell's good side. And there's also still upside in the running game, since it shouldn't be *that* hard to win a larger share of the rushing work from Montgomery if he plays well. Swift still being there is a complication, but for just one season at most I'd guess.

 

[ZWK]

Here are generic rookie rankings through round 3.

The first number is the player's estimated career VBD based only on position & draft pick. The number in parentheses is their reach-adjusted value, which downgrades players who were drafted earlier than expected (it is based 60% on their actual pick and 40% on their projected pick).

495 RB Bijan Robinson 8 ATL (488)
429 RB Jahmyr Gibbs 12 DET (369)
201 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20 SEA (201)
196 WR Quentin Johnston 21 LAC (196)
193 RB Zach Charbonnet 52 SEA (193)
190 WR Zay Flowers 22 BAL (185)
185 WR Jordan Addison 23 MIN (185)
175 TE Dalton Kincaid 25 BUF (171)
156 QB Bryce Young 1 CAR (156)
150 RB Kendre Miller 71 NO (123)
134 TE Sam LaPorta 34 DET (105)
131 RB Tyjae Spears 81 TEN (131)
130 TE Michael Mayer 35 LV (130)
129 WR Jonathan Mingo 39 CAR (104)
128 QB C.J. Stroud 2 HOU (128)
126 RB Devon Achane 84 MIA (126)
120 RB Tank Bigsby 88 JAX (120)
114 QB Anthony Richardson 4 IND (112)
107 TE Luke Musgrave 42 GB (98)
105 WR Jayden Reed 50 GB (86)
[rd 4 RBs could slot in as high as here]
97 WR Rashee Rice 55 KC (88)
82 WR Marvin Mims 67 DEN (80)
80 WR Nathaniel Dell 69 HOU (78)
76 WR Jalin Hyatt 73 NYG (76)
75 WR Cedric Tillman 74 CLE (75)
71 WR Josh Downs 79 IND (71)
70 TE Luke Schoonmaker 58 DAL (53)
65 TE Brenton Strange 61 JAX (42)
58 WR Michael Wilson 94 ARI (53)
53 WR Tre Tucker 100 LV (35)
53 QB Will Levis 33 TEN (53)
45 TE Tucker Kraft 78 GB (45)
34 TE Darnell Washington 93 PIT (34)
29 TE Cameron Latu 101 SF (21)
10 QB Hendon Hooker 68 DET (10)

 

[ZWK]

There's a very obvious top 6 in PPR, IMO, with just a couple small questions about order. First the two RBs Robinson & Gibbs with a big gap between them and a big gap after them, then the 4 first round WRs. I'd put JSN & Johnston as the first two WRs (order unclear) and Addison & Flowers as the next two (order unclear). If it's superflex, stick the top 3 QBs in there between the RBs top make it an obvious top 9 - I'd rank them Richardson-Young-Stroud (with Richardson vs. Young a close call).

After that it really opens up.

Zach Charbonnet would clearly belong in the top 7 in PPR if he didn't land in Seattle, and not necessarily as #7. But Ken Walker is good (I'd guess) and young and early in his contract. With two similarly rated prospects there, it's easy to imagine a value-killing committee, but it's worth keeping in mind that there's a wide range of possibilities for any young prospect and things often don't stick right in the balanced middle. Four realistic possibilities:

• There's a competition rather than a balanced committee, Walker wins, Charbonnet gets maybe 30% of the workload which makes him just a desperation fantasy RB3, and a high-end handcuff who could be an RB1 if Walker misses time
• Value-killing committee, where the workload is split 50:50, Charbonnet and Walker are each perhaps a low-end RB2 (and they each still have high-end handcuff value if the other misses time)
• MJD - Fred Taylor style committee, where the workload is split 50:50, but MJD/Charbonnet gets the goal-line work and the receiving work, which makes him something like a borderline RB1/RB2 while Fred Taylor / Walker is just a low-end RB2 or an RB3 (and both still have high-end handcuff value)
• Charbonnet wins the competition and gets 70% of the workload, he can be a fantasy RB1 and Walker is just his backup

The average fantasy value across these scenarios is much higher than the value of the middling scenario where they're both just low-end RB2s. And worth remembering that the negative scenarios aren't unique to crowded backfields: any rookie RB has a chance of being worse than expected and getting relegated to a backup-type role during his rookie contract (perhaps behind a player that the team adds in his 2nd or 3rd year). Though having high-end competition does increase the chances of being stuck in a 50% or less role.

Anthony Richardson is another candidate beginning at pick 7. Should get at least a couple years as starter to show what he can do, and whenever he plays his rushing makes him a likely fantasy starter and potential high end fantasy QB. Drafting him feels a lot like trading the pick for Justin Fields; similar range of outcomes, I think. And there's the obvious Jalen Hurts comparison, and the Hurts connection with Shane Steichen.

Round 3 running backs Kendre Miller and Devon Achane went a little later in the draft, but I was pretty high on each of them. They have more straightforward paths to a starting job than Charbonnet. Kamara potentially faces a suspension, age-related decline, and a large non-guaranteed contract amount beginning in 2024 which could get him cut for cap space. Achane is just competing with Mostert & Jeff Wilson, who haven't been as good, are both getting up there in age, and are each just on cheapish 2-year deals with only 2023 guaranteed. Miller was my favorite pre-draft and got the highest draft capital. Miami is a great fit for Achane, both for the Shanahan-style running game which could make great use of his speed (like it has for Mostert in SF & MIA) and for McDaniel's creative coaching which has made for an explosive offense. Tyjae Spears is another option as a third-rounder who I had rated similarly to these two pre-draft, with Henry similar to Kamara (without the suspension risk), but I'd put him behind these two.

Dalton Kincaid belongs in the top 7 in TE premium formats (and not necessarily at #7), and there's a case for him as early as 7 even without bonuses for tight ends. He's another first round pick, drafted mainly as a receiver, going to be playing with Josh Allen. It does require patience since TEs rarely put up big numbers as rookies, and Dawson Knox is there with his 2023 & 2024 salaries guaranteed. Some other TE options were drafted in early rd2, but I'd put all of them behind Kincaid.

So picks 7-11 I have as those five guys, in some order. Literally any order seems plausible; in this moment I'm leaning towards the order I put here (Charbonnet, Richardson, Miller, Achane, Kincaid) but I might feel differently in an hour. Then #12 is easy, Tyjae Spears.

After that it opens up again, with the other two top QBs (Young, Stroud), the next batch of TEs (Mayer, Musgrave, LaPorta), the rd2 WRs (Rice, Mingo, Mims, Reed), and a couple more mid-round RBs (Bigsby, R Johnson). That covers most of fantasy round 2, in some order. Currently thinking something like the order I just listed, but not quite as bunched by position.

Young & Stroud don't add much through rushing, but early 1st round QBs have a pretty good track record (especially #1 picks) and they're both straightforwardly good QB prospects. The TEs all have pretty good profiles. Ordinarily I'd take rd2 WRs over rd2 TEs, but I have some doubts with these WRs. Unfortunately there is no overlap between the best landing spot (Rice in KC), the best draft capital (Mingo at 39), and the guy I liked the most pre-draft (Mims). So I'm probably waiting till late round 2 for those guys. See more on Rice here, and Mingo's numbers here (Mingo has the second-lowest YPRR among FBS WRs drafted this year ahead of only 7th rounder Jalen Brooks; it's also the second-lowest among rd1-3 WRs in the PFF era ahead of only Josh Palmer). Bigsby would be close to the earlier RB trio but he has a Charbonnet-like situation alongside Walker. Roschon Johnson was drafted a bit later but has an Achane-like situation competing with just Herbert & Foreman (and I guess Travis Homer).

 

[acarey50]

@ZWK - what adjustments, if any, would you make for non-PPR rookie drafts?

This is where I'm struggling the most this year for my one non-PPR dynasty league and trying to figure out what adjustments I should be making to the valuations to account for that.

 

[facook]

There's a very obvious top 6 in PPR, IMO, with just a couple small questions about order. First the two RBs Robinson & Gibbs with a big gap between them and a big gap after them, then the 4 first round WRs. I'd put JSN & Johnston as the first two WRs (order unclear) and Addison & Flowers as the next two (order unclear). If it's superflex, stick the top 3 QBs in there between the RBs top make it an obvious top 9 - I'd rank them Richardson-Young-Stroud (with Richardson vs. Young a close call).

After that it really opens up.

Zach Charbonnet would clearly belong in the top 7 in PPR if he didn't land in Seattle, and not necessarily as #7. But Ken Walker is good (I'd guess) and young and early in his contract. With two similarly rated prospects there, it's easy to imagine a value-killing committee, but it's worth keeping in mind that there's a wide range of possibilities for any young prospect and things often don't stick right in the balanced middle. Four realistic possibilities:

• There's a competition rather than a balanced committee, Walker wins, Charbonnet gets maybe 30% of the workload which makes him just a desperation fantasy RB3, and a high-end handcuff who could be an RB1 if Walker misses time
• Value-killing committee, where the workload is split 50:50, Charbonnet and Walker are each perhaps a low-end RB2 (and they each still have high-end handcuff value if the other misses time)
• MJD - Fred Taylor style committee, where the workload is split 50:50, but MJD/Charbonnet gets the goal-line work and the receiving work, which makes him something like a borderline RB1/RB2 while Fred Taylor / Walker is just a low-end RB2 or an RB3 (and both still have high-end handcuff value)
• Charbonnet wins the competition and gets 70% of the workload, he can be a fantasy RB1 and Walker is just his backup

The average fantasy value across these scenarios is much higher than the value of the middling scenario where they're both just low-end RB2s. And worth remembering that the negative scenarios aren't unique to crowded backfields: any rookie RB has a chance of being worse than expected and getting relegated to a backup-type role during his rookie contract (perhaps behind a player that the team adds in his 2nd or 3rd year). Though having high-end competition does increase the chances of being stuck in a 50% or less role.

Anthony Richardson is another candidate beginning at pick 7. Should get at least a couple years as starter to show what he can do, and whenever he plays his rushing makes him a likely fantasy starter and potential high end fantasy QB. Drafting him feels a lot like trading the pick for Justin Fields; similar range of outcomes, I think. And there's the obvious Jalen Hurts comparison, and the Hurts connection with Shane Steichen.

Round 3 running backs Kendre Miller and Devon Achane went a little later in the draft, but I was pretty high on each of them. They have more straightforward paths to a starting job than Charbonnet. Kamara potentially faces a suspension, age-related decline, and a large non-guaranteed contract amount beginning in 2024 which could get him cut for cap space. Achane is just competing with Mostert & Jeff Wilson, who haven't been as good, are both getting up there in age, and are each just on cheapish 2-year deals with only 2023 guaranteed. Miller was my favorite pre-draft and got the highest draft capital. Miami is a great fit for Achane, both for the Shanahan-style running game which could make great use of his speed (like it has for Mostert in SF & MIA) and for McDaniel's creative coaching which has made for an explosive offense. Tyjae Spears is another option as a third-rounder who I had rated similarly to these two pre-draft, with Henry similar to Kamara (without the suspension risk), but I'd put him behind these two.

Dalton Kincaid belongs in the top 7 in TE premium formats (and not necessarily at #7), and there's a case for him as early as 7 even without bonuses for tight ends. He's another first round pick, drafted mainly as a receiver, going to be playing with Josh Allen. It does require patience since TEs rarely put up big numbers as rookies, and Dawson Knox is there with his 2023 & 2024 salaries guaranteed. Some other TE options were drafted in early rd2, but I'd put all of them behind Kincaid.

So picks 7-11 I have as those five guys, in some order. Literally any order seems plausible; in this moment I'm leaning towards the order I put here (Charbonnet, Richardson, Miller, Achane, Kincaid) but I might feel differently in an hour. Then #12 is easy, Tyjae Spears.

After that it opens up again, with the other two top QBs (Young, Stroud), the next batch of TEs (Mayer, Musgrave, LaPorta), the rd2 WRs (Rice, Mingo, Mims, Reed), and a couple more mid-round RBs (Bigsby, R Johnson). That covers most of fantasy round 2, in some order. Currently thinking something like the order I just listed, but not quite as bunched by position.

Young & Stroud don't add much through rushing, but early 1st round QBs have a pretty good track record (especially #1 picks) and they're both straightforwardly good QB prospects. The TEs all have pretty good profiles. Ordinarily I'd take rd2 WRs over rd2 TEs, but I have some doubts with these WRs. Unfortunately there is no overlap between the best landing spot (Rice in KC), the best draft capital (Mingo at 39), and the guy I liked the most pre-draft (Mims). So I'm probably waiting till late round 2 for those guys. See more on Rice here, and Mingo's numbers here (Mingo has the second-lowest YPRR among FBS WRs drafted this year ahead of only 7th rounder Jalen Brooks; it's also the second-lowest among rd1-3 WRs in the PFF era ahead of only Josh Palmer). Bigsby would be close to the earlier RB trio but he has a Charbonnet-like situation alongside Walker. Roschon Johnson was drafted a bit later but has an Achane-like situation competing with just Herbert & Foreman (and I guess Travis Homer).

1.6 in a 1 qb full ppr dynasty where I have no wr needs, 1 viable RB (JK Dobbins), and 1 qb is Lamar.

Predraft I was all in on Charbs. Now I'm torn between him and Richardson. Thoughts?

 

[ZWK]

Non-ppr generally boosts QBs, and to a lesser extent RBs, compared to WRs & TEs. Also helps or hurts specific players based on their profile, e.g. bad for a receiving-heavy back like Gibbs.

You could look at the generic rookie rankings a couple posts up, multiply all the QB values by 1.2, and divide all the WR & TE values by 1.2, for a starting point.

I don't play in any non-ppr leagues so I haven't thought about it in depth for this class.

 

[ZWK]

1.6 in a 1 qb full ppr dynasty where I have no wr needs, 1 viable RB (JK Dobbins), and 1 qb is Lamar.

Predraft I was all in on Charbs. Now I'm torn between him and Richardson. Thoughts?

Draft for value, trade for need. I wouldn't draft anything but a WR at 1.6 regardless of what my roster looks like.

You could try to trade the pick for the best RB you can get, or trade down to 1.8 & draft whoever's left out of Charbs, Richardson, and the top 4 WRs, or trade down a bit farther to get Achane or better, or (if you're a contender) try to trade something else for a vet RB like Aaron Jones or James Conner.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Eric prince@ - Deneric Prince is one to watch. He blazed a 4.32 a few days ago........ @ 6.1 and 217lbs IJS...
Derrick Blaylock@ - 18 steps through 39 yards!!!!!!

!! Guess the time??? @denericprince

@DraftDiamonds @nfl 6’1 217 RB!!

Chiefs HC Andy Reid impressed by RB Deneric Prince's performance at rookie minicamp

 

[ZWK]

I have my rookie rankings in this spreadsheet.

RB Bijan Robinson ATL (8)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs DET (12)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA (20)
WR Quentin Johnston LAC (21)
WR Jordan Addison MIN (23)
WR Zay Flowers BAL (22)

RB Zach Charbonnet SEA (52)
QB Anthony Richardson IND (4)
RB Kendre Miller NO (71)
RB Devon Achane MIA (84)
TE Dalton Kincaid BUF (25)

RB Tyjae Spears TEN (81)
QB Bryce Young CAR (1)

WR Rashee Rice KC (55)
TE Michael Mayer LV (35)
TE Sam LaPorta DET (34)
RB Tank Bigsby JAX (88)
WR Jonathan Mingo CAR (39)
WR Marvin Mims DEN (63)
RB Roschon Johnson CHI (115)
WR Jayden Reed GB (50)
TE Luke Musgrave GB (42)
QB C.J. Stroud HOU (2)
WR Josh Downs IND (79)
WR Jalin Hyatt NYG (73)
WR Nathaniel Dell HOU (69)
WR Cedric Tillman CLE (74)

TE Luke Schoonmaker DAL (58)
RB Israel Abanikanda NYJ (143)
RB Chase Brown CIN (163)
TE Tucker Kraft GB (78)
WR Michael Wilson ARI (94)
TE Brenton Strange JAX (61)
RB Eric Gray NYG (172)
RB Zach Evans LAR (215)

TE Darnell Washington PIT (93)
QB Will Levis TEN (33)
WR Tyler Scott CHI (133)
RB Evan Hull IND (176)
RB Deuce Vaughn DAL (212)
WR Tre Tucker LV (100)
WR Kayshon Boutte NE (187)
RB DeWayne McBride MIN (222)
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. WAS (193)

RB Kenny McIntosh SEA (237)
WR Puka Nacua LAR (177)
RB Sean Tucker TB (udfa)
WR Justin Shorter BUF (150)
WR Dontayvion Wicks GB (159)
WR Charlie Jones CIN (131)
QB Hendon Hooker DET (68)
WR Parker Washington JAX (185)
WR Trey Palmer TB (191)
WR Derius Davis LAC (125)
RB Deneric Prince KC (udfa)
RB Lew Nichols III GB (235)
WR A.T. Perry NO (195)
TE Will Mallory IND (162)
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson CLE (140)
TE Elijah Higgins MIA (197)
WR Xavier Hutchinson HOU (205)
RB Xazavian Valladay HOU (udfa)
WR Colton Dowell TEN (228)

 

[Gally]

Here is who I picked and when in my recent rookie draft (6 rounds - Full IDP) - Listed in ZWK order with where they went in the draft:

• Pick 1.12 - WR Zay Flowers BAL (22)
• Pick 3.09 - RB Tank Bigsby JAX (88)
• Pick 2.12 - RB Chase Brown CIN (163)
• Pick 3.04 - RB Zach Evans LAR (215)
• Pick 5.04 - RB DeWayne McBride MIN (222)

*** Also picked up Deneric Prince in the auction ($34)