ZWK's 2024 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

 

[(HULK)]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.

FYSA, Cousin's contract has a no trade clause.

 

[ZWK]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.

FYSA, Cousin's contract has a no trade clause.

Good point. So a trade will only happen if Cousins agrees to it. And Atlanta probably won't get all that much back if they do trade him, since teams will be competing with each other to get Cousins to choose them instead of trying to make the offer that the Falcons like most. It does still seem like a possibility, a year from now, if ATL wants to hand things over to Penix and get out of Cousins' contract and a team like PIT or NYJ wants to woo Cousins to their city.

 

[ZWK]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

Video of every Ricky Pearsall rushing touchdown

 

[ZWK]

Day 2 RBs

46 Jonathon Brooks CAR
66 Trey Benson ARI
83 Blake Corum LAR
88 MarShawn Lloyd GB

My dynasty ranking is currently the same as their draft order.

These picks are pretty close to their consensus board ranks (56, 58, 77, 94), though with more of a gap between Brooks & Benson. Initial impression is that landing spot is great for Corum, bad for Lloyd, and solid for Brooks & Benson.

Carolina has Hubbard in the last year of his contract, and Miles Sanders in the last guaranteed year of his contract (and probably not worth his non-gtd 2025 salary). Could be a committee, or Brooks could earn a workhorse role in year 1 or year 2. Though if the offense doesn't get better that will make the Panthers' RB role less valuable.

Arizona has 29-year-old James Conner in the last year of his contract, and not much else. So Benson has a straightforward path to an immediate committee role and a year 2 starting job, with possibilities of taking over a bigger role in year 1 if Conner struggles or misses time.

Los Angeles has Kyren Williams with 2 years left on his rookie deal, coming off a huge year. I like this landing spot a lot for Corum - I was worried that he was a low ceiling guy because he doesn't seem like a special back, but LA is a situation that creates a high ceiling. They like to rely heavily on their top back, and can change suddenly who that is, which makes this a boom-or-bust landing spot for a reliable back like Corum, depending on whether he can usurp Williams.

Green Bay has Josh Jacobs on basically a year-to-year contract for $11.5M/year - he gets $14.8M this year and will cost an additional $8.2M to keep in 2025, $11.5M for 2026, and $13.5M in 2027. Jacobs will probably be the lead back as long as he's good, but GB could easily move on if he declines. Definitely bad for Lloyd to land behind him, but leaves more room for hope than it seems. Though there's an additional concern that Lloyd was much better on man/gap run concepts than on zone runs, and the Packers use a lot of zone blocking.

 

[ZWK]

Generic PPR rookie rankings, based on position and draft pick.

The number in parentheses (e.g. 149 for Xavier Legette) is the player's estimated career fantasy points over replacement, given the position he plays & the pick he was taken with, based on historical data.

The first number (e.g. 140 for Legette), which they're sorted by, is the reach-adjusted version of that player value. That means that if a player was drafted earlier than expected (compared to the consensus board), then his projection is in between the value of the pick that he was taken at and the value of the pick that he was projected at (it's 60% actual pick, 40% projected pick), based on research by Timo Riske.

372 WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI (372 at pick 4)
326 WR Malik Nabers NYG (326 at pick 6)
285 WR Rome Odunze CHI (285 at pick 9)
255 TE Brock Bowers LV (255 at pick 13)
212 RB Jonathon Brooks CAR (213 at pick 46)
185 WR Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (185 at pick 23)
162 RB Trey Benson ARI (162 at pick 66)
158 WR Xavier Worthy KC (164 at pick 28)
156 QB Caleb Williams CHI (156 at pick 1)
143 WR Ladd McConkey LAC (143 at pick 34)
142 WR Keon Coleman BUF (146 at pick 33)
140 WR Xavier Legette CAR (149 at pick 32)
135 WR Ricky Pearsall SF (153 at pick 31)
130 RB Blake Corum LAR (130 at pick 83)
122 QB Jayden Daniels WAS (128 at pick 2)
122 RB MarShawn Lloyd GB (122 at pick 88)
119 QB Drake Maye NE (119 at pick 3)
117 WR Ja'Lynn Polk NE (134 at pick 37)
102 WR Adonai Mitchell IND (102 at pick 52)
93 QB J.J. McCarthy MIN (93 at pick 10)
84 WR Malachi Corley NYJ (84 at pick 65)
83 QB Michael Penix Jr. ATL (99 at pick 8)
81 RB Jaylen Wright MIA (81 at pick 120)
76 RB Bucky Irving TB (76 at pick 125)
74 RB Will Shipley PHI (74 at pick 127)
73 RB Ray Davis BUF (73 at pick 128)
73 QB Bo Nix DEN (88 at pick 12)
67 RB Braelon Allen NYJ (67 at pick 134)
67 WR Roman Wilson PIT (67 at pick 84)
66 WR Jermaine Burton CIN (70 at pick 80)
64 TE Ben Sinnott WAS (79 at pick 53)
62 RB Isaac Guerendo SF (72 at pick 129)
60 WR Jalen McMillan TB (60 at pick 92)
56 RB Audric Estime DEN (56 at pick 147)
52 WR Troy Franklin DEN (52 at pick 102)
45 WR Javon Baker NE (45 at pick 110)
43 WR Luke McCaffrey WAS (53 at pick 100)
42 WR Devontez Walker BAL (42 at pick 113)
41 RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG (41 at pick 166)
34 RB Rasheen Ali BAL (41 at pick 165)
31 RB Isaiah Davis NYJ (35 at pick 173)
29 TE Tip Reiman ARI (42 at pick 82)
29 TE Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR (29 at pick 101)
28 RB Kimani Vidal LAC (29 at pick 181)
28 WR Jacob Cowing SF (28 at pick 135)
27 RB Keilan Robinson JAC (40 at pick 167)
26 TE Theo Johnson NYG (26 at pick 107)
23 RB Jase McClellan ATL (26 at pick 186)
22 RB Dylan Laube LV (22 at pick 208)
20 RB Jawhar Jordan HOU (22 at pick 205)
20 WR Ainias Smith PHI (20 at pick 152)
19 TE Cade Stover HOU (19 at pick 123)
19 WR Anthony Gould IND (25 at pick 142)
19 WR Jamari Thrash CLE (19 at pick 156)
17 TE Erick All CIN (22 at pick 115)
16 TE Jared Wiley KC (16 at pick 131)
15 TE AJ Barner SEA (20 at pick 121)
11 WR Bub Means NO (14 at pick 170)
10 WR Malik Washington MIA (10 at pick 184)
10 WR Johnny Wilson PHI (10 at pick 185)
10 QB Spencer Rattler NO (10 at pick 150)
9 WR Jha'Quan Jackson TEN (10 at pick 182)
8 QB Jordan Travis NYJ (8 at pick 171)
7 WR Ryan Flournoy DAL (7 at pick 216)
6 WR Casey Washington ATL (10 at pick 187)
6 WR Jordan Whittington LAR (7 at pick 213)
6 WR Brenden Rice LAC (6 at pick 225)
6 WR Tejhaun Palmer ARI (9 at pick 191)
6 QB Joe Milton III NE (6 at pick 193)
5 TE Tanner McLachlan CIN (5 at pick 194)
5 WR Tahj Washington MIA (5 at pick 241)
4 WR Cornelius Johnson LAC (4 at pick 253)
4 WR Devaughn Vele DEN (5 at pick 235)
3 QB Devin Leary BAL (3 at pick 218)
2 TE Jaheim Bell NE (2 at pick 231)
2 QB Michael Pratt GB (2 at pick 245)
1 TE Devin Culp TB (2 at pick 246)

I'm working on my actual rankings, but this is a pretty good starting point.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Do you do a Superflex ranking as well?

 

[ZWK]

First pass at rookie rankings here. One set of rankings for regular PPR leagues, one set for superflex TE premium leagues.

I will probably tinker some more with these over the next couple days.

 

[massraider]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

Boy so old, I think he Velus Jones' uncle!!

 

[Joe Bryant]

Formulaic PPR rookie rankings, based on position and draft pick.

The number in parentheses (e.g. 149 for Xavier Legette) is the player's estimated career fantasy points over replacement, given the position he plays & the pick he was taken with, based on historical data.

The first number (e.g. 140 for Legette), which they're sorted by, is the reach-adjusted version of that player value. That means that if a player was drafted earlier than expected (compared to the consensus board), then his projection is in between the value of the pick that he was taken at and the value of the pick that he was projected at (it's 60% actual pick, 40% projected pick), based on research by Timo Riske.

372 WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI (372 at pick 4)
326 WR Malik Nabers NYG (326 at pick 6)
285 WR Rome Odunze CHI (285 at pick 9)
255 TE Brock Bowers LV (255 at pick 13)
212 RB Jonathon Brooks CAR (213 at pick 46)
185 WR Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (185 at pick 23)
162 RB Trey Benson ARI (162 at pick 66)
158 WR Xavier Worthy KC (164 at pick 28)
156 QB Caleb Williams CHI (156 at pick 1)
143 WR Ladd McConkey LAC (143 at pick 34)
142 WR Keon Coleman BUF (146 at pick 33)
140 WR Xavier Legette CAR (149 at pick 32)
135 WR Ricky Pearsall SF (153 at pick 31)
130 RB Blake Corum LAR (130 at pick 83)
122 QB Jayden Daniels WAS (128 at pick 2)
122 RB MarShawn Lloyd GB (122 at pick 88)
119 QB Drake Maye NE (119 at pick 3)
117 WR Ja'Lynn Polk NE (134 at pick 37)
102 WR Adonai Mitchell IND (102 at pick 52)
93 QB J.J. McCarthy MIN (93 at pick 10)
84 WR Malachi Corley NYJ (84 at pick 65)
83 QB Michael Penix Jr. ATL (99 at pick 8)
81 RB Jaylen Wright MIA (81 at pick 120)
76 RB Bucky Irving TB (76 at pick 125)
74 RB Will Shipley PHI (74 at pick 127)
73 RB Ray Davis BUF (73 at pick 128)
73 QB Bo Nix DEN (88 at pick 12)
67 RB Braelon Allen NYJ (67 at pick 134)
67 WR Roman Wilson PIT (67 at pick 84)
66 WR Jermaine Burton CIN (70 at pick 80)
64 TE Ben Sinnott WAS (79 at pick 53)
62 RB Isaac Guerendo SF (72 at pick 129)
60 WR Jalen McMillan TB (60 at pick 92)
56 RB Audric Estime DEN (56 at pick 147)
52 WR Troy Franklin DEN (52 at pick 102)
45 WR Javon Baker NE (45 at pick 110)
43 WR Luke McCaffrey WAS (53 at pick 100)
42 WR Devontez Walker BAL (42 at pick 113)
41 RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG (41 at pick 166)
34 RB Rasheen Ali BAL (41 at pick 165)
31 RB Isaiah Davis NYJ (35 at pick 173)
29 TE Tip Reiman ARI (42 at pick 82)
29 TE Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR (29 at pick 101)
28 RB Kimani Vidal LAC (29 at pick 181)
28 WR Jacob Cowing SF (28 at pick 135)
27 RB Keilan Robinson JAC (40 at pick 167)
26 TE Theo Johnson NYG (26 at pick 107)
23 RB Jase McClellan ATL (26 at pick 186)
22 RB Dylan Laube LV (22 at pick 208)
20 RB Jawhar Jordan HOU (22 at pick 205)
20 WR Ainias Smith PHI (20 at pick 152)
19 TE Cade Stover HOU (19 at pick 123)
19 WR Anthony Gould IND (25 at pick 142)
19 WR Jamari Thrash CLE (19 at pick 156)
17 TE Erick All CIN (22 at pick 115)
16 TE Jared Wiley KC (16 at pick 131)
15 TE AJ Barner SEA (20 at pick 121)
11 WR Bub Means NO (14 at pick 170)
10 WR Malik Washington MIA (10 at pick 184)
10 WR Johnny Wilson PHI (10 at pick 185)
10 QB Spencer Rattler NO (10 at pick 150)
9 WR Jha'Quan Jackson TEN (10 at pick 182)
8 QB Jordan Travis NYJ (8 at pick 171)
7 WR Ryan Flournoy DAL (7 at pick 216)
6 WR Casey Washington ATL (10 at pick 187)
6 WR Jordan Whittington LAR (7 at pick 213)
6 WR Brenden Rice LAC (6 at pick 225)
6 WR Tejhaun Palmer ARI (9 at pick 191)
6 QB Joe Milton III NE (6 at pick 193)
5 TE Tanner McLachlan CIN (5 at pick 194)
5 WR Tahj Washington MIA (5 at pick 241)
4 WR Cornelius Johnson LAC (4 at pick 253)
4 WR Devaughn Vele DEN (5 at pick 235)
3 QB Devin Leary BAL (3 at pick 218)
2 TE Jaheim Bell NE (2 at pick 231)
2 QB Michael Pratt GB (2 at pick 245)
1 TE Devin Culp TB (2 at pick 246)

I'm working on my actual rankings, but this is a pretty good starting point.

Thanks! Always good to see.

 

[beef]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

Poor QB play? Passes off target so when Pearsall has to adjust to make the catch, that stall/break in route allows defenders to close the separation gap.

 

[ZWK]

Here are my first-pass rookie rankings, linked earlier. For comparison, I've put the generic rookie rankings from a couple posts up (based only on NFL draft slot and pre-draft expected draft pick) and the Fantasy Pros consensus dynasty rookie rankings (which are similar to other rookie rankings & ADP) in parentheses.


1 WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI (generic: 1 WR1, fpros: 1 WR1)
2 WR2 Malik Nabers NYG (generic: 2 WR2, fpros: 2 WR2)
3 WR3 Rome Odunze CHI (generic: 3 WR3, fpros: 3 WR3)

4 TE1 Brock Bowers LV (generic: 4 TE1, fpros: 4 TE1)
5 RB1 Jonathon Brooks CAR (generic: 5 RB1, fpros: 10 RB1)
6 WR4 Xavier Worthy KC (generic: 8 WR5, fpros: 6 WR4)
7 WR5 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (generic: 6 WR4, fpros: 7 WR5)
8 RB2 Trey Benson ARI (generic: 7 RB2, fpros: 12 RB2)
9 QB1 Caleb Williams CHI (generic: 9 QB1, fpros: 5 QB1)
10 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS (generic: 15 QB2, fpros: 9 QB2)

11 WR6 Ladd McConkey LAC (generic: 10 WR9, fpros: 8 WR6)

12 RB3 Blake Corum LAR (generic: 14 RB3, fpros: 18 RB3)
13 WR7 Keon Coleman BUF (generic: 11 WR8, fpros: 11 WR7)

14 WR8 Xavier Legette CAR (generic: 12 WR7, fpros: 17 WR10)
15 WR9 Ricky Pearsall SF (generic: 13 WR6, fpros: 13 WR8)
16 WR10 Ja'Lynn Polk NE (generic: 18 WR10, fpros: 23 WR13)
17 QB3 Drake Maye NE (generic: 17 QB3, fpros: 15 QB3)
18 RB4 Jaylen Wright MIA (generic: 23 RB5, fpros: 21 RB5)
19 RB5 MarShawn Lloyd GB (generic: 16 RB4, fpros: 19 RB4)
20 WR11 Adonai Mitchell IND (generic: 19 WR11, fpros: 14 WR9)
21 WR12 Jermaine Burton CIN (generic: 30 WR13, fpros: 24 WR14)

22 QB4 J.J. McCarthy MIN (generic: 20 QB5, fpros: 16 QB4)
23 TE2 Ben Sinnott WAS (generic: 31 TE2, fpros: 30 TE2)
24 WR13 Roman Wilson PIT (generic: 28 WR14, fpros: 22 WR12)
25 WR14 Malachi Corley NYJ (generic: 21 WR12, fpros: 26 WR15)
26 RB6 Isaac Guerendo SF (generic: 32 RB9, fpros: 39 RB12)
27 RB7 Ray Davis BUF (generic: 26 RB8, fpros: 27 RB6)

28 RB8 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG (generic: 39 RB13, fpros: 44 RB14)
29 WR15 Troy Franklin DEN (generic: 35 WR17, fpros: 20 WR11)
30 RB9 Will Shipley PHI (generic: 25 RB7, fpros: 37 RB10)
31 WR16 Javon Baker NE (generic: 36 WR18, fpros: 28 WR16)
32 RB10 Bucky Irving TB (generic: 24 RB6, fpros: 31 RB7)
33 WR17 Jalen McMillan TB (generic: 33 WR15, fpros: 32 WR17)
34 QB5 Bo Nix DEN (generic: 27 QB6, fpros: 25 QB5)
35 RB11 Kimani Vidal LAC (generic: 44 RB16, fpros: 38 RB11)
36 RB12 Audric Estime DEN (generic: 34 RB11, fpros: 34 RB9)
37 RB13 Rasheen Ali BAL (generic: 40 RB12, fpros: 51 RB16)
38 RB14 Braelon Allen NYJ (generic: 28 RB10, fpros: 33 RB8)
39 WR18 Devontez Walker BAL (generic: 38 WR19, fpros: 40 WR19)
40 TE3 Theo Johnson NYG (generic: 47 TE5, fpros: 45 TE4)

41 RB15 Isaiah Davis NYJ (generic: 41 RB15, fpros: 47 RB15)
42 WR19 Luke McCaffrey WAS (generic: 37 WR16, fpros: 35 WR18)
43 WR20 Jacob Cowing SF (generic: 45 WR20, fpros: 43 WR21)
44 RB16 Dylan Laube LV (generic: 49 RB19, fpros: 42 RB13)
45 WR21 Ainias Smith PHI (generic: 51 WR22, fpros: 53 WR25)
46 TE5 Erick All CIN (generic: 55 TE6, fpros: 54 TE6)
47 TE4 Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR (generic: 43 TE4, fpros: 36 TE3)
48 TE6 Cade Stover HOU (generic: 52 TE8, fpros: 50 TE5)
49 QB6 Michael Penix Jr. ATL (generic: 22 QB4, fpros: 29 QB6)
50 TE7 Tip Reiman ARI (generic: 42 TE3, fpros: 77 TE10)
51 RB17 Blake Watson DEN (generic: 78 RB20, fpros: 84 RB22)
52 RB18 Jase McClellan ATL (generic: 48 RB17, fpros: 63 RB17)
53 WR22 Anthony Gould IND (generic: 53 WR21, fpros: 68 WR30)
54 WR23 Jamari Thrash CLE (generic: 54 WR23, fpros: 52 WR24)
55 WR24 Johnny Wilson PHI (generic: 60 WR27, fpros: 49 WR23)
56 WR25 Malik Washington MIA (generic: 59 WR26, fpros: 41 WR20)
57 TE8 Jared Wiley KC (generic: 56 TE9, fpros: 59 TE8)

Compared to my generic rankings (based on NFL draft slot):
I am higher on: Xavier Worthy, Ben Sinnott, Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Javon Baker, Jaylen Wright, Tyrone Tracy, Kimani Vidal, Blake Watson
I am lower on: Malachi Corley, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, Michael Penix, Tip Reiman

Compared to Fantasy Pros (and I think other dynasty rankings & ADP):
I am higher on RBs and lower on QBs.
I am higher on: Xavier Legette, Ja'Lynn Polk, Ben Sinnott, Isaac Guerendo, Tyrone Tracy, Rasheen Ali, Tip Reiman, Blake Watson
I am lower on: Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Michael Penix, Malik Washington

Picking out a few of these guys:
RBs Tyrone Tracy NYG & Kimani Vidal LAC: Two guys I like later in rookie drafts. Both are guys that I was high on prior to the draft due to a nice combination size, athleticism, receiving ability, and being hard to tackle, both fell to the 5th-6th round of the NFL draft but landed in nice spots with weak backfields. Vidal got a nicer landing spot (worse competition and better team) and the rest of fantasy community seems to be with me in being high on him, Tracy is more highly rated (by me pre-draft, by pre-draft consensus boards, and by the NFL draft) and has a better excuse for not going earlier (he just switched from WR to RB this season) and the fantasy community doesn't seem to be on him in the same way.

RBs Jaylen Wright MIA & Isaac Guerendo SF: Both are real fast and were drafted in the 120s to teams that are good at using fast RBs, but which already have good RBs. Both have high long-term upside if you're patient.

WR/TEs Adonai Mitchell, Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Malik Washington: All fell further in the NFL draft than expected, but a lot of the fantasy community is still high on them. I was lower than others on Mitchell, Wilson, and Sanders pre-draft and value them close to where they were drafted. Franklin & Washington I liked pre-draft, and like relative to where they went in the NFL draft, but I still think the Fantasy Pros rankings are too high on them given what the NFL apparently thinks of them.

 

[Aznflyer14]

Here are my first-pass rookie rankings, linked earlier. For comparison, I've put the generic rookie rankings from a couple posts up (based only on NFL draft slot and pre-draft expected draft pick) and the Fantasy Pros consensus dynasty rookie rankings (which are similar to other rookie rankings & ADP) in parentheses.


1 WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI (generic: 1 WR1, fpros: 1 WR1)
2 WR2 Malik Nabers NYG (generic: 2 WR2, fpros: 2 WR2)
3 WR3 Rome Odunze CHI (generic: 3 WR3, fpros: 3 WR3)

4 TE1 Brock Bowers LV (generic: 4 TE1, fpros: 4 TE1)
5 RB1 Jonathon Brooks CAR (generic: 5 RB1, fpros: 10 RB1)
6 WR4 Xavier Worthy KC (generic: 8 WR5, fpros: 6 WR4)
7 WR5 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (generic: 6 WR4, fpros: 7 WR5)
8 RB2 Trey Benson ARI (generic: 7 RB2, fpros: 12 RB2)
9 QB1 Caleb Williams CHI (generic: 9 QB1, fpros: 5 QB1)
10 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS (generic: 15 QB2, fpros: 9 QB2)

11 WR6 Ladd McConkey LAC (generic: 10 WR9, fpros: 8 WR6)

12 RB3 Blake Corum LAR (generic: 14 RB3, fpros: 18 RB3)
13 WR7 Keon Coleman BUF (generic: 11 WR8, fpros: 11 WR7)

14 WR8 Xavier Legette CAR (generic: 12 WR7, fpros: 17 WR10)
15 WR9 Ricky Pearsall SF (generic: 13 WR6, fpros: 13 WR8)
16 WR10 Ja'Lynn Polk NE (generic: 18 WR10, fpros: 23 WR13)
17 QB3 Drake Maye NE (generic: 17 QB3, fpros: 15 QB3)
18 RB4 Jaylen Wright MIA (generic: 23 RB5, fpros: 21 RB5)
19 RB5 MarShawn Lloyd GB (generic: 16 RB4, fpros: 19 RB4)
20 WR11 Adonai Mitchell IND (generic: 19 WR11, fpros: 14 WR9)
21 WR12 Jermaine Burton CIN (generic: 30 WR13, fpros: 24 WR14)

22 QB4 J.J. McCarthy MIN (generic: 20 QB5, fpros: 16 QB4)
23 TE2 Ben Sinnott WAS (generic: 31 TE2, fpros: 30 TE2)
24 WR13 Roman Wilson PIT (generic: 28 WR14, fpros: 22 WR12)
25 WR14 Malachi Corley NYJ (generic: 21 WR12, fpros: 26 WR15)
26 RB6 Isaac Guerendo SF (generic: 32 RB9, fpros: 39 RB12)
27 RB7 Ray Davis BUF (generic: 26 RB8, fpros: 27 RB6)

28 RB8 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG (generic: 39 RB13, fpros: 44 RB14)
29 WR15 Troy Franklin DEN (generic: 35 WR17, fpros: 20 WR11)
30 RB9 Will Shipley PHI (generic: 25 RB7, fpros: 37 RB10)
31 WR16 Javon Baker NE (generic: 36 WR18, fpros: 28 WR16)
32 RB10 Bucky Irving TB (generic: 24 RB6, fpros: 31 RB7)
33 WR17 Jalen McMillan TB (generic: 33 WR15, fpros: 32 WR17)
34 QB5 Bo Nix DEN (generic: 27 QB6, fpros: 25 QB5)
35 RB11 Kimani Vidal LAC (generic: 44 RB16, fpros: 38 RB11)
36 RB12 Audric Estime DEN (generic: 34 RB11, fpros: 34 RB9)
37 RB13 Rasheen Ali BAL (generic: 40 RB12, fpros: 51 RB16)
38 RB14 Braelon Allen NYJ (generic: 28 RB10, fpros: 33 RB8)
39 WR18 Devontez Walker BAL (generic: 38 WR19, fpros: 40 WR19)
40 TE3 Theo Johnson NYG (generic: 47 TE5, fpros: 45 TE4)

41 RB15 Isaiah Davis NYJ (generic: 41 RB15, fpros: 47 RB15)
42 WR19 Luke McCaffrey WAS (generic: 37 WR16, fpros: 35 WR18)
43 WR20 Jacob Cowing SF (generic: 45 WR20, fpros: 43 WR21)
44 RB16 Dylan Laube LV (generic: 49 RB19, fpros: 42 RB13)
45 WR21 Ainias Smith PHI (generic: 51 WR22, fpros: 53 WR25)
46 TE5 Erick All CIN (generic: 55 TE6, fpros: 54 TE6)
47 TE4 Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR (generic: 43 TE4, fpros: 36 TE3)
48 TE6 Cade Stover HOU (generic: 52 TE8, fpros: 50 TE5)
49 QB6 Michael Penix Jr. ATL (generic: 22 QB4, fpros: 29 QB6)
50 TE7 Tip Reiman ARI (generic: 42 TE3, fpros: 77 TE10)
51 RB17 Blake Watson DEN (generic: 78 RB20, fpros: 84 RB22)
52 RB18 Jase McClellan ATL (generic: 48 RB17, fpros: 63 RB17)
53 WR22 Anthony Gould IND (generic: 53 WR21, fpros: 68 WR30)
54 WR23 Jamari Thrash CLE (generic: 54 WR23, fpros: 52 WR24)
55 WR24 Johnny Wilson PHI (generic: 60 WR27, fpros: 49 WR23)
56 WR25 Malik Washington MIA (generic: 59 WR26, fpros: 41 WR20)
57 TE8 Jared Wiley KC (generic: 56 TE9, fpros: 59 TE8)

Compared to my generic rankings (based on NFL draft slot):
I am higher on: Xavier Worthy, Ben Sinnott, Jermaine Burton, Troy Franklin, Javon Baker, Jaylen Wright, Tyrone Tracy, Kimani Vidal, Blake Watson
I am lower on: Malachi Corley, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen, Michael Penix, Tip Reiman

Compared to Fantasy Pros (and I think other dynasty rankings & ADP):
I am higher on RBs and lower on QBs.
I am higher on: Xavier Legette, Ja'Lynn Polk, Ben Sinnott, Isaac Guerendo, Tyrone Tracy, Rasheen Ali, Tip Reiman, Blake Watson
I am lower on: Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Michael Penix, Malik Washington

Picking out a few of these guys:
RBs Tyrone Tracy NYG & Kimani Vidal LAC: Two guys I like later in rookie drafts. Both are guys that I was high on prior to the draft due to a nice combination size, athleticism, receiving ability, and being hard to tackle, both fell to the 5th-6th round of the NFL draft but landed in nice spots with weak backfields. Vidal got a nicer landing spot (worse competition and better team) and the rest of fantasy community seems to be with me in being high on him, Tracy is more highly rated (by me pre-draft, by pre-draft consensus boards, and by the NFL draft) and has a better excuse for not going earlier (he just switched from WR to RB this season) and the fantasy community doesn't seem to be on him in the same way.

RBs Jaylen Wright MIA & Isaac Guerendo SF: Both are real fast and were drafted in the 120s to teams that are good at using fast RBs, but which already have good RBs. Both have high long-term upside if you're patient.

WR/TEs Adonai Mitchell, Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Malik Washington: All fell further in the NFL draft than expected, but a lot of the fantasy community is still high on them. I was lower than others on Mitchell, Wilson, and Sanders pre-draft and value them close to where they were drafted. Franklin & Washington I liked pre-draft, and like relative to where they went in the NFL draft, but I still think the Fantasy Pros rankings are too high on them given what the NFL apparently thinks of them.

I think Bowers belongs to the same tier as top 3 WRs in MH Jr, Nabers, and Odunze. Yes, I'm aware of the fact that Bowers is TE but I believe Raiders drafted him as OW (offensive weapon) who can do everything. I see no reason why he cannot co-exist with TE Michael Mayer. Both can be Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. And yes, that's huge standard to compare with it. Beside, neither O'Connell nor Minshew has a cannon arm. So, I think Raiders will make their QB to be system manager to allow their playmakers to do the actual work.

 

[ZWK]

I put together a spreadsheet calculation to be more systematic about how I'm thinking about this WR class. It mostly matches my rankings from a couple posts up, but not entirely.

"Pick Value" & "Reach/Steal" come directly from my generic rookie rankings. The Reach/Steal adjustment makes it so that reaches are rated at 60% actual pick value + 40% projected pick value, while steals are rated at 95% actual pick value + 5% projected pick value. "Talent adjustment" is totally subjective and similar to how I summarized my pre-draft thoughts here. "Fantasy-friendly skillset" is just serving as a slight penalty to deep threats who are more valuable to NFL teams than to fantasy teams. "Landing Spot (QB & Coaches)" is a bonus for guys who landed on great passing offenses that are likely to stay great, due to QB/coach/scheme, especially if they are a good fit for that offense. "Landing Spot (Competition)" is a small bonus for guys who landed on teams with a thin receiving corps who could get a ton of targets, and a small downgrade for teams with lots of good target competition (especially an elite WR1 who will likely be in the picture long-term).

These multiply together to get the overall adjustment, e.g. for Rome Odunze 101% x 105% x 100% x 110% x 95% = 111% overall adjustment. And 284.7 x 111% = 315 Value.

The top 12 WRs by this calculation actually perfectly match my ranking. Here's more detail on them:

Elite top 3: Harrison, Nabers, Odunze. Draft order, pre-draft consensus rankings, and my pre-draft ranking of their talent all match this order. Situational factors don't change things much. So pretty straightforward to rank as the top 3 in this order.

Next 3: Worthy, Thomas, McConkey. My pre-draft talent ranking had Thomas, McConkey, and Worthy as the best of the rest out of the rd1-2 picks. Draft order had Thomas, Worthy, and then a few in a row including McConkey. The consensus board pre-draft had Thomas, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy. Landing spot is best for Worthy, then a tier of good landing spots for Coleman, McConkey, and Thomas. So it's pretty clear that this is the next trio and McConkey is 3rd, the only question is whether the KC landing spot matters enough to put Worthy ahead of Thomas (I think yes, and the calculation just barely agrees).

Other rd1-2 picks: Coleman, Legette, Pearsall, Polk, Mitchell. I am down on the talent of all of these guys relative to a borderline rd1-2 draft spot, though I could make a case for why there's some hope for each of them (e.g. early declare from Coleman & kinda Mitchell, one huge season from Legette, tough target competition from teammates for Polk & Mitchell & perhaps Coleman, good Reception Perception numbers from Pearsall & Mitchell & Polk). Mitchell (pick 52) fell farthest in the real draft (which is why he didn't need a further negative for "Talent"), the others all went between 31-37. The pre-draft consensus board had them ranked Mitchell (29), Coleman (36), Legette (42), Pearsall (48), Polk (62). Coleman has the best landing spot with Josh Allen, although I'd like it more if they were planning to try him as a big slot rather than just as an X. I basically agree with the calculation, which has Coleman first thanks to landing spot, then Legette just ahead of Pearsall, then Polk just barely holding off Mitchell.

Jermaine Burton: He's the guy who I'm highest on relative to draft slot, talent-wise. I was willing to put a ++ talent adjustment on him since I think he fell due to character concerns which matter more for NFL teams than for fantasy teams. And he landed in a nice spot with Burrow, especially since Higgins is likely to leave soon. So despite going at pick 80, I have him close behind the early round 2 picks. Though this only moves him ahead of 1 WR who was drafted ahead of him - Corley at 65 - since Corley & Mitchell were the only 2 WRs drafted in the 40 picks ahead of him.

WR13-24 (in this image) mostly match my rankings, though a few guys are 1-2 spots different: Corley vs. R Wilson, McMillan vs. Baker, Thrash vs. Smith & Gould, M Washington vs. J Wilson (25 by the calculation, not shown).