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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
CabinFever
Footballguy
12 team PPR dynasty
Gave: Dak & Martellus Bennett
Got: Winston & DeSean Jackson
Gave: Dak & Martellus Bennett
Got: Winston & DeSean Jackson
One More Rep
Footballguy
CabinFever
Footballguy
I thought it was pretty close, but still think Winston has a higher upside, especially if they get a good #2 this year, and I even like DeSean if he lands in the right spot...but if though
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
14 team PPR devy league
Gave:
Dalvin Cook
Got:
Nuk Hopkins, Gio Bernard
Gave:
Dalvin Cook
Got:
Nuk Hopkins, Gio Bernard
One More Rep
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Love me some Luke but give me Dez there.
Fat Rob, though I know the value of 3.09 in an IDP league.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Some Melvin Gordon trades: (FFPC scoring with 1.5 ppr for TE)
Team A receives: Gordon
Team B receives: 1.4/2.3/Duke Johnson
Team A receives: Gordon/2018 1st (could be anywhere)
Team B receives: L. Miller/1.6
Team A receives: Gordon/1.11
Team B receives: L. Miller/A. Hooper/1.6
Team A receives: Gordon
Team B receives: 1.4/2.3/Duke Johnson
Team A receives: Gordon/2018 1st (could be anywhere)
Team B receives: L. Miller/1.6
Team A receives: Gordon/1.11
Team B receives: L. Miller/A. Hooper/1.6
JohnnyU
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Andrew74
Footballguy
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 team dynasty PPR
Team A got OBJ, Stephan Anderson (TE Hou), pick 2.8, 2.10
Team B gets Jordan Howard, Stephan Diggs, Cameron Brate, pick 1.11
Team C got Aaron Rodgers, pick 4.11
Team D got Dak Prescott, 2018 1st (mid to late)
Team A got OBJ, Stephan Anderson (TE Hou), pick 2.8, 2.10
Team B gets Jordan Howard, Stephan Diggs, Cameron Brate, pick 1.11
Team C got Aaron Rodgers, pick 4.11
Team D got Dak Prescott, 2018 1st (mid to late)
One More Rep
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I think a reasonable argument can be made that Gordon could see a regression if Woodhead returns to form. Gordon had 74 rec, 611 yds, 2 rec tds. How much do you think woodhead will cut into those figures?
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
No, he had 41 rec for 419 yards. You are looking at his career total from his two seasons.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 team dynasty PPR
Team A got TJ Yeldon, Doctson, pick 1.8, 2.11
Team B got Devante Adams, Isiaah Crowell, pick 4.1
Team A got TJ Yeldon, Doctson, pick 1.8, 2.11
Team B got Devante Adams, Isiaah Crowell, pick 4.1
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Point remains the same, plus he caught zero in the one full game Woodhead played.
The only thing I'd say is I'm not sure Woodhead will cut into his role because I'm not sure Woodhead is going to be on the team. But people forget not only did the Chargers lose Woodhead they lost Oliver, Gordon was last man standing for a OC who prefers to run a RBBC but did not have the pieces. So maybe it's Woodhead, or maybe it's someone else, but I think someone is going to take a chunk of his workload away.
One More Rep
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's not necessarily just that either. Gordon was a TD dependent, volume dependent player that has averaged 3.5 and 3.9 ypc in his two seasons in the NFL. 3.X ypc guys don't generally hold down that kind of volume for long (Eddie George excluded), especially when much of that volume came from a high number of injuries to his competition.
Regression to the mean is not an uncommon thing. I'm not sure I can remember a case where a guy had this many different and seemingly obvious reasons that he should regress the next season.
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
At what point do we take into consideration that the Chargers O-Line was the worst in the NFL last year?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
My bad, second worst OLine, and it's not the Vikings that are the worst.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season/
Regardless, both were atrocious so what is the point?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
You might be right, just saying that it is assumed that Gordon is guaranteed to regress based on his volume and ypc. His volume will surely decline but his overall play should only get better from here out. Might not happen right away but that line can only get better.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Or the Rams lineAndy Dufresne said:
Zyphros
Footballguy
Reasonable argument sure, but that still puts Gordon as a top10 RB. He's young, proved he can handle a workload while playing through injuries and is still improving. Yeah people point to his YPC and TD's but whose to say he won't improve on those as well? It's not like his numbers last year were THAT bad. He did improve after his first year after all. Maybe he's a guy that's realizing what it takes to be a pro at a sport and he's put the work in, to keep improving. Either way you look at it, you can't say he's a bad RB to own and those trades were light for whatever you think Gordon is. I see it as he adapted well after a bad rookie year and is gaining his comfort in the speed of the NFL. I expect him to improve in every category other than maybe TD's.32 Counter Pass said:
Rookie year receptions/yards/TD's 33/192/0
2nd year receptions/yards/TD's 41/419/2
That's not a massive difference from with Woodhead/Oliver to without them. They just used Gordon in some of those situations that Woodhead/Oliver were in leading to a much better yards per catch. It's the scheme or play calls that helped him improve, not the lack of other RB's.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Serious question here because I don't know the answer. What guys in recent memory have started their careers with two seasons of YPC as low as Gordon's (assuming a significant number of carries) and gone on to have a nice career?
There have been a decent handful of guys to have a poor YPC as a rookie and go on to have nice careers, but I can't really think of many that were sub 4ypc in each of their first two years and did. The most recent I can think of is Thomas Jones and that was 16 years ago now (man I'm old).
FWIW I believe this is the same argument I was making regarding Trent Richardson after his 2nd year when people still believed, though to be fair of course his YPC was much worse.
The line play would be one thing if this were a Ronnie Brown situation where he jumped off the page when he ran and you thought to yourself "wow how did that guy manage to get 2 yards on that play!". But when I watched Gordon play this year I didn't see anything remarkable about him other than him being the guy with the ball in his hands a lot.
I think if he'd been a 4th round pick in the draft we'd all be assuming he was some JAG that was soon to be replaced right now.
There have been a decent handful of guys to have a poor YPC as a rookie and go on to have nice careers, but I can't really think of many that were sub 4ypc in each of their first two years and did. The most recent I can think of is Thomas Jones and that was 16 years ago now (man I'm old).
FWIW I believe this is the same argument I was making regarding Trent Richardson after his 2nd year when people still believed, though to be fair of course his YPC was much worse.
The line play would be one thing if this were a Ronnie Brown situation where he jumped off the page when he ran and you thought to yourself "wow how did that guy manage to get 2 yards on that play!". But when I watched Gordon play this year I didn't see anything remarkable about him other than him being the guy with the ball in his hands a lot.
I think if he'd been a 4th round pick in the draft we'd all be assuming he was some JAG that was soon to be replaced right now.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
Went through a couple of recent RB's and Gordon's first 2 seasons looks a lot like Devonta Freeman's actually. 3.8 and 4.0 in Freeman's first 2 years with massive jumps in TD's (1 to 11). Gordon was used more as a rookie than Freeman was but their 2nd year jumps are similar. For Freeman he's another guy it's fair to question if he's in that top tier or not (I tend to say no, others might say yes), but they're both in that 2nd tier after Bell/Zeke/DJ I believe.
I think it's fair to question if he's the real deal or an aberration in becoming a top tier asset. I for one believe he'll make it up there and 1 more season like 2016 will cement that. I have a chart that I keep track of 1st/2nd year stats with cut offs to see who might be buy lows and Gordon fits 3/4 of the criteria. If they don't fit at least 2/4 I try to avoid or sell them off.
What I look for in a RB:
Yards in rookie season (minimum 600)? check.
TD's in rookie season (minimum 4)? no.
Improved yards in 2nd season (minimum 800)? check.
Improved TD's in 2nd season (minimum 6)? check.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Maclin put up ~85/1200/9 in his last two healthy seasons. I'd gamble on him getting back to that, if doing so comes with Garcon for free.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I doubt he re-signs with SD. They'll bring in some depth, but I think they like Gordon as the workhorse.32 Counter Pass said:
garlicduck
Footballguy
I don't trust Alex Smith and it seemed to me that KC liked running their offense through Kelce and Tyreek. Plus, I think they want to be a running team...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think that's all fair. I think it's safe to say that Crabtree is the safest asset involved. I think it's close enough, but would side with the volume here.
Does Garçon really tip the needle at all here? I can't imagine even really factoring him into this. He'll be a 31 year old heading into an unknown destination with two career 1000 yard seasons under his belt, having never scored more than 6 TDs in a year during his career. Seems more like a roster clog than anything else.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Agreed. He's barely worth a roster spot to be honest. I realize he's coming off a decent season, but he's useless to a rebuilding team (even as trade bait) and a contender should have better options (even for depth).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
When talking about Crabtree--yeah, he certainly moves the needle for me. His 2016 play was more impressive than his blanket production. He was a stud last season. He finished top 10 in YAR and DYAR, top 15 in DVOA. PFF graded him as the 8th best WR in the league last year. He's only a year older than Crabtree, who also has only 2x 1,000 yard seasons in his career. I also expect the Redskins to re-sign him and let Jackson walk.
He's a top 30 NFL WR likely to re-sign with a top 5 offense that is losing 100 targets it will need to spread around. I think he's a good bet for WR2/3 numbers over the next couple years--and I've got room on all of my rosters for that.
Edit: He has very little trade appeal and could see his value drop in FA, so I certainly understand the apprehension. I don't mean to make it sound like he's anything more than he is. But he's a guy I'm targeting and he just more than bridges the gap between Maclin and Crabtree for me.
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garlicduck
Footballguy
You both might be right!
Garcon was #22 WR in PPR last year and yet is being drafted as #87 WR in dynasty start ups...seems like "a buy" at that price.
It's actually pretty bleak when you look at it. I used 300 carries as the limit and YPC 3.9 or less for first two years and in both cases I used totals, not just one season. So any RB who first two years in the league got 300 carries and averaged 3.9 yards or less after two seasons.
It's not a strong list. Forte was probably best fantasy back of the group and what made him so good was receiving. Garrison Hearst, McGahee and Ricky Williams were other RB's who had solid careers that fit this criteria, which went all the way back to 1960.
But, all of those RB's I mentioned had a higher YPC then Gordon after two seasons. Looking for a RB with less YPC than Gordon that fit this criteria and the best fantasy RB I saw was Reggie Bush, who again was not so good because of his running most of his career.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I moved Garçon in this deal but do like him. That said even if he does stay (I expect him to follow the money and likely not be in as good a situation as he was this year personally) his output is likely to drop and it could be significant. Reed missed a lot of time, Doctson was hurt almost all year and they had little going on throwing to RBs. I could see a lot of that changing next year. He has little trade value right now as you indicated. If I needed more depth I could understand taking the Maclin side but for me this was about raising my WR3 floor, reducing my variance and increasing overal value to my team. If I wanted a first round pick I could probably get one for Crabtree but Maclin plus Garcon? Not likely.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
This isn't exactly earth shattering, but....
10-team best ball PPR with deep rosters and full IDP
Dion Lewis, 4.05, 4.09, 5.09
for
2.04
10-team best ball PPR with deep rosters and full IDP
Dion Lewis, 4.05, 4.09, 5.09
for
2.04
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