I would rate Guice over 1.7 in the old vacuum but it's close and I can see why you or anyone would want out on a guy that has not even been able to play 100 snaps.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
An ACL tear on a non-contact run shouldn't really be held against him - those things happen.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yea 1.07 in a loaded class isn't really buying low.
And that was ffpc too so the roster spot adds even more value to the side getting the pick.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
There was much speculation making the rounds that Guice suffered damage to that ACL in his final season of college and didn't have surgery, which some teams dinged him for on his medicals, contributing to his surprising (at the time) fall. If so, that ACL may not have been in the best shape entering his rookie year. I don't know if this makes it better or worse for his value.
The MCL sprain he struggled with this season is likely a predictable result of the ACL repair, right? Compensation injuries and whatnot?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But players come back from it all the time without future issues and I’m not sure it should lead to a player being labeled “injury prone” when it’s a single occurrence.
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
10-team PPR
gave Ertz
got Kirk
I still have Kittle, Andrews, and Howard at TE.
gave Ertz
got Kirk
I still have Kittle, Andrews, and Howard at TE.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
jwsbowler
Footballguy
Catbird
Footballguy
Close for me, but the 1.02 is as high potential as Godwin and I'd gladly take Gallup over the 2.02 and 3.02. I can sure see the risk averse grabbing Godwin and being completely satisfied. A lot may come down to whether you are a strong team in your league and can coast with Godwin as a foundation piece or are in a rebuild and need the chance at a stud plus Gallup to compete.
Catbird
Footballguy
1.12 easily. Johnson just looked finished even when at full strength down the stretch. There is some chance he returns to a significant role if he weren't as healthy as advertised, but I think almost none that he supplants both Drake and Edmonds into a bell cow role. And age. I'll take the first rounder in a strong RB/WR class who has a good chance of being a long term value.
Thanks Doc, for the opinion in line with my (uneducated but enthusiastic) feeling about the future. It wasn't long ago that people were throwing Dalvin to the dogs as 'made of glass.' Guice could still go the Kevin White route, but I think even that was ultimately a confidence and lack of talent issue more than 'injury proneness' as a career killer. I don't think Guise suffers from any lack of confidence or talent. He has already shown clear stretches of elite skills on a team with, at least yet, little competition and great other needs for their draft picks. I think Guice is far more likely to be a stud player than a 1.7, even in this strong class. I'm pretty confidently holding him everywhere.
Catbird
Footballguy
I own and have loved Ertz, but with Goedert going nowhere and cracks beginning to show in Ertz' performance (whether from shared opportunities or the beginning of the end facing 30 at a position where the beating taken often leads to early career decline) I am looking for trade opportunities. I am not a huge Kirk fan, but I think its time to get the best value you can for Zach, before a sense of production erosion becomes general.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
I've been trying to sell Ertz since the fantasy season ended and haven't had much luck. Not only did I feel overloaded at TE with Kittle, Ertz, Andrews, and Howard, but I also worry about Ertz starting to decline and/or Goedert stealing targets from him. I like Kirk as a player and in that offense, even if he won't ever be a WR1. Don't need him to be.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
10-team PPR.
I'm prepared to hear that I gave up too much, but I really wanted Sanders and I have a ton of draft picks and need to trim some fat to make room. So, the roster spots hold plenty of value to me.
Gave: Melvin Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, Nick Foles, 2020 1.10
Got: Miles Sanders, 2020 2.08
I'm prepared to hear that I gave up too much, but I really wanted Sanders and I have a ton of draft picks and need to trim some fat to make room. So, the roster spots hold plenty of value to me.
Gave: Melvin Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, Nick Foles, 2020 1.10
Got: Miles Sanders, 2020 2.08
jeaton6
Footballguy
I don’t think it’s too much at all. A full Foles and Emmanuel Sanders too much? Those are bit players...MG is gone, no idea what he did next and M. Sanders is a star. At this point give me Miles by a bit.
I agree with this. I think Ertz has much less trade value in most leagues than a calculator would say. First because there are always owners in your league that don't value the TE position in a start one league (for strategy and team construction reasons). And then you have to factor in that basically every dynasty analyst has been recommending selling Ertz since last offseason and I'm sure the sentiment is even stronger now with the passage of another year and the emergence of Goedert. Your leaguemates will have noticed this and will likely have no interest in buying Ertz for "full value" based on production when there are younger, likely cheaper options with upside, and if you're the one selling Ertz they will be wary and won't want to pay up even if they are interested. A player at the level (and age) of Kirk to me seems like pretty much a best case scenario TBH if 2020 first rounders aren't on the table.Dr. Dan said:
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Gave D Freeman
Got 2021 2nd, 2021 3rd
Gave D Freeman
Got 2021 2nd, 2021 3rd
Zyphros
Footballguy
FFPC
I traded away: Odell Beckham Jr and Marlon Mack
I got: Joe Mixon
I still have JuJu, DJ Moore, Deebo, Metcalf 1.02, 1.10 and 2.02 as major pieces.
I don't hate OBJ but I don't think he's ever top5 consideration WR anymore. Ever. Cashing out with 2 unknowns for a beast of a RB on an ascending team with Burrow (hopefully). Mack is average'ish, some blow up weeks, good depth on an ok team. I'm shooting my shot on ceiling here.
I traded away: Odell Beckham Jr and Marlon Mack
I got: Joe Mixon
I still have JuJu, DJ Moore, Deebo, Metcalf 1.02, 1.10 and 2.02 as major pieces.
I don't hate OBJ but I don't think he's ever top5 consideration WR anymore. Ever. Cashing out with 2 unknowns for a beast of a RB on an ascending team with Burrow (hopefully). Mack is average'ish, some blow up weeks, good depth on an ok team. I'm shooting my shot on ceiling here.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
That deal had me try to get Mixon... I offered D Freeman ATL RB & Tyler Lockett SEA WR & 2 late picks (4.11 & 4.12) for Mixon & Mercole Hardman (he has Hill, Robinson & Da Williams all KC)
Shot down immediately... But I like the idea of this move. Might up the picks and try again.... 2.11 is my best pick. Or include Waller
Birdie048
Footballguy
WOW... this just went thru.... 12 Team 1.5 PPR TE, 1.0 PPR RB, 0.5 PPR WR Bonus at 50 yards TE & 100 Rush/Rec RB/WR (so TE heavy league)
Team A (lost Championship and now rebuild mode) GAVE: KC TE T. Kelce & SF WR E. Sanders
Team B (competitive but injury bug bit hard 2019) GOT: NYG E Engram, 1.04 & 2.09
FYI - Team B Injuries = Cam, Guice, AJ Green, Ker Johnson (so he has potential for a competitive future)
Team A (lost Championship and now rebuild mode) GAVE: KC TE T. Kelce & SF WR E. Sanders
Team B (competitive but injury bug bit hard 2019) GOT: NYG E Engram, 1.04 & 2.09
FYI - Team B Injuries = Cam, Guice, AJ Green, Ker Johnson (so he has potential for a competitive future)
I think if you're going after Mixon you'll need to offer a top 5+ pick in this class or an equivalent player as part of the deal. Lockett is good and he produces, but his trade value in my experience isn't as great as you'd think given where he is typically ranked (as someone who has tried to move him). Freeman is almost worth nothing now and the 4th rounders are inconsequential. To ask for Hardman as well.....I'm not surprised it was shot down immediately.
It's funny how quickly values change because I traded OBJ for Mixon and a second last offseason just before the OBJ trade to the Browns and it looked like a terrible trade at the time (and I regretted it). Now I feel like I got the better end of it.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
FFPC
Sutton, Courtland
Hill, Justice
2021 2nd Round
For
Henry, Derrick
Westbrook, Dede
In league but not involved other than envy\jealousy that an 11-2 team could pick up Henry so cheaply. Two owners have lodged official complaints which is pretty silly imho. Its bad but not close to must be reversed bad; right?
Sutton, Courtland
Hill, Justice
2021 2nd Round
For
Henry, Derrick
Westbrook, Dede
In league but not involved other than envy\jealousy that an 11-2 team could pick up Henry so cheaply. Two owners have lodged official complaints which is pretty silly imho. Its bad but not close to must be reversed bad; right?
Mark Football
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Birdie048
Footballguy
Thanks both for the feedback. I understood it was unlikley, but I was hoping to get a counter. Maybe he likes Ingram over Freeman and only needs the 2.11 to be added.... I was just looking to find a starting point as to the availablilty or cost.
I have not recieved any interest in Lockett which is a little surprising IMO, but he is my WR2 (behind Adams) so it would clearly have impacted my starters. With him having 5 KC players, why not move 1 of them? Is it a roster clog to have 3 KC WRs - T Hill, M Hardman, D Robinson? I guess I was hoping to take advantage of that situation to some degree.
But as for the Mixon trade value, I just don't have the pieces to make a worthy package to entice the owner without offering my best players (Chubb or Adams).
ETA: He said, rightly, it would take Chubb or D Adams to get Mixon. Thus defeating the value of the move from my perspective.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's the recency bias based on what he's done in the playoffs. Obviously he had a great season overall as well, but given his age and heavy workload I agree he's not a terrible sell high candidate. I don't see this deal as lopsided either.
Zyphros
Footballguy
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Birdie048
Footballguy
I think he sold Kelce short, not hosed but missed on other value. Engram 2020 is in final year of contract and I do not trust Gettleman. I am not a fan of Engram due to injury history (34 of 48 games played last 3 seasons) I don't think they will resign him and uncertain future.
Kelce has missed 1 game in last 5 season & signed thru 2021... Granted Kelce is 30 & Engram is 25 yo...
I see Kelce as a Sell High... this was not high IMO
FFPC, about a week ago:
Gave: N'keal Harry, Corey Davis, Crowder
Got: Gallup and AJG
I already lost by drafting Harry and Davis over Miles and CMC, and I'm saying that as far from giving up on Harry but who in their right mind would take him over Sanders today? Corey I gave up on.
Harry vs Gallup was how trade offer to me started and like I said I'm not giving up on Harry but I'm certainly disappointed so this was easy call to me. Their age is about 9 months apart, one just posted 15PPG over 14 games, the other I don't know if/when he'll develop on an offense with ton of uncertainty.
AJG vs Corey/Crowder component of trade. Again easy call for me but I also was going to cut one of Corey or Crowder if not both so I don't mind the 2 for 1. Really other then what I could get back in trade for the two WR's I gave up they had little to no value to me and this league WR's have been going for peanuts this offseason and I'm still sitting on a guy like John Brown I'm tasked with moving for decent value and so far not finding it . I got a very young roster that is pressed hard for roster room today and that should get worse in upcoming next few years so I don't mind so much on this team acquiring someone to help me out a year or two before sending them off. Also this team basically lived on a bunch of WDIS type WR's last year(Crowder, John Brown, Anthony Miller types) and felt a sure thing weekly lineup guy like AJG made a ton of sense. AJG is one of my least favorite players in the NFL, but I still think he has an elite 1-2 years left with Burrow or in the right new destination.
Gave: N'keal Harry, Corey Davis, Crowder
Got: Gallup and AJG
I already lost by drafting Harry and Davis over Miles and CMC, and I'm saying that as far from giving up on Harry but who in their right mind would take him over Sanders today? Corey I gave up on.
Harry vs Gallup was how trade offer to me started and like I said I'm not giving up on Harry but I'm certainly disappointed so this was easy call to me. Their age is about 9 months apart, one just posted 15PPG over 14 games, the other I don't know if/when he'll develop on an offense with ton of uncertainty.
AJG vs Corey/Crowder component of trade. Again easy call for me but I also was going to cut one of Corey or Crowder if not both so I don't mind the 2 for 1. Really other then what I could get back in trade for the two WR's I gave up they had little to no value to me and this league WR's have been going for peanuts this offseason and I'm still sitting on a guy like John Brown I'm tasked with moving for decent value and so far not finding it . I got a very young roster that is pressed hard for roster room today and that should get worse in upcoming next few years so I don't mind so much on this team acquiring someone to help me out a year or two before sending them off. Also this team basically lived on a bunch of WDIS type WR's last year(Crowder, John Brown, Anthony Miller types) and felt a sure thing weekly lineup guy like AJG made a ton of sense. AJG is one of my least favorite players in the NFL, but I still think he has an elite 1-2 years left with Burrow or in the right new destination.
Thanks for answering and based on how people feel about Engram I thought that was way you probably felt.
I'd prefer the Engram side myself. I get the injuries on Engram but sometimes stuff just happens. Kelce missed his entire first year, Engrams had a multiple injuries but stuff like that just does not bother me as much because despite the last few years I don't feel confident predicting Engram will continue to suffer more injuries then a player 5 years older. Those 5 years, and not because of injury, are just huge to me.
I also don't trust Gettleman because of that the fact he is entering the last year of his contract I view as great news. His future is not uncertain to me, where he plays might be but not his future. I think a lot of teams that would know how to use him better and in an offense were 2 of your top 3 WR's are better slot WR's could be way better for his long term future but the production, especially his weekly consistency, was already pretty good last year in this offense with Eli and a rookie QB. My strong opinion is that any potential change of scenery will just be better.
So for me I'd take the player who has had some injuries but I get 5 years younger and know I'm also going to be able to draft one of Jeudy, Lamb, Swift, Dobbins as absolute worst case scenario I'd do it.
But people hate or are super down on Engram right now so I understand your reaction to the trade, especially when Kelce is running around throwing down 40+ in real playoff games.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Errrrrrr I'm going to say Team B by an entire Kelce, Sanders, Engram, 1.04 and 2.09. Holy cow. This is like that heads I win tails you lose scenario. Love it. I can never get this one to work, though.
Just kidding, I take Engram and 1.04 by a lot. I love Kelce but this is the perfect kind of deal to move him.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I would much rather have Henry over Sutton, particularly in that lg where i have thomas,evans,allen,kupp,mclaurin,gallup and desperate for rb. Many of my tms r wr heavy and my feeling is there r lot more young promising wrs than solid rbs. As has been pointed out there is a lot of love for Sutton and i did call out the protests as silly so not pounding the table over it.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Gave - Noah Fant
Got - 1.05 and John Ross
Gave - Noah Fant
Got - 1.05 and John Ross
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not in any TE premium leagues but did he even get drafted before or at 1.05 last offseason in such leagues? It's hard to imagine one could turn a profit on him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
the only thing I'd argue here is that TE's usually take longer so usually worth more in year 2 or 3 then as a rookie. Fant flashed enough that we are pretty positive he'll be good. I didn't think it was that far off but I sold him as I like the top half of rd1 in this draft. In several of my FFPC league he went 1.4-1.7 last year
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The furthest I would fall giving up the 1.01 is 1.06. Also, I wouldn't have given two 2nd rd picks to move down to 1.06. The most I would have considered is the 1.01 and one 2021 2nd for the 1.06 and two 2021 1st rd picks. I wouldn't even do that for the 1.07. I would want one of Swift, Dobbins, Etienne, Jeudy, Lamb, or Taylor.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree with your overall point but every year a RB or WR that no one is hyping yet goes to a prime location and gets “overdrafted” so one or two of those guys will likely drop to 1.07.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Regardless, I wouldn't have given two 2nd rd picks in the deal, just one, even if I was willing to get the 1.07 instead of it being the 1.06. Not to mention that one or two of those players I listed in my top 6 could end up in a crappy situation.
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