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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd take Jeudy. His air yard share was very impressive and drops have been bandied about as not an inherent trait in guys. I've never been a big Jeudy guy, either, but what you're getting back isn't really that impressive.
Fair deal, I guess, though.
rockaction
Footballguy
Snell is probably your best bet, at least in my opinion. I don't think McFarland quite has the size to be a lead back. Snell looked spry last year compared to his iteration of himself the year before. I think the Steelers have screamed that they want a RB, though, so I'm not sure that's the team to pick a back and hope. Maybe it is.
jtd13
Footballguy
I don't disagree with anything here at all. But given this is a true zig-when-others-zag approach, there will be plenty of reasons not to buy right now. I'm just wondering which of the "obvious sells" mathematically survives, because that guy will have a stupid rise in value over the summer, I think.Snell is probably your best bet, at least in my opinion. I don't think McFarland quite has the size to be a lead back. Snell looked spry last year compared to his iteration of himself the year before. I think the Steelers have screamed that they want a RB, though, so I'm not sure that's the team to pick a back and hope. Maybe it is.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Are there even enough day 1/day 2 rb prospects to fill in all the teams that we see as needing a rb this year? Especially given that 1 or 2 of them usually end up surprisingly being scooped up by a team that didn't really have an immediate need at rb (a la aj dillon).
It seems to me like at least 1 of these Davis/Snell/Coleman/Edmonds types are going to dodge the draft bullet and maybe that guy will be Davis. I know that guy won't be Mack.
Even if they draft a back there is still a reasonable chance that Davis is useful this year as the rook is eased in as we've seen a million times before.
Seems 50/50 to me that Davis scores more fantasy points in week 1 than Mack scores the rest of his career.
It seems to me like at least 1 of these Davis/Snell/Coleman/Edmonds types are going to dodge the draft bullet and maybe that guy will be Davis. I know that guy won't be Mack.
Even if they draft a back there is still a reasonable chance that Davis is useful this year as the rook is eased in as we've seen a million times before.
Seems 50/50 to me that Davis scores more fantasy points in week 1 than Mack scores the rest of his career.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I would rather use roster spots other ways than roster any of those players. If I had any of them, I have long since purchased them a Greyhound bus ticket to another owner.
rockaction
Footballguy
Look at the picks each team has. I think Edmonds stands a fighting chance, despite everyone to the contrary, as does Davis. I think this because the Cardinals have the 16th and 49th pick and then nothing, really. If you get past 49, you're generally fine with Edmonds. I'd even look more at Ward on his own team (Benjamin is there, too, but he and Edmonds are almost identical size/speed-wise.) Davis surprised last year and if you're out of the top three, you really run into the question of whether you think the guys that aren't testing well -- are they going to come in and replace him with low draft capital in ATL? Maybe not.
Then you look at the other teams. I think when Miami backed up the Brinks truck to haul in Le'Veon Bell last year, that told you all you needed to know about how the felt about their RB situation. The question in Miami really is whether they're using analytics to determine draft capital usage. If they are, then RB might be lower on the list, but I suspect they'll want one. Pittsburgh is probably more than likely to draft one of the big three. Believe it or not, Jacksonville and its plethora of picks in the first three rounds might select one early because Robinson is an undrafted free agent with no ties to the current coaching staff (he has ties to the GM, but who is really running the show). It's really tough to speculate this year because of the unique situation at running back.
rockaction
Footballguy
You'd have to find an owner willing to take a risk. I got rejected for a third and future second for Edmonds. I asked too much, I was told. I've had him on the block explicitly saying a second-round pick might do. That has been met with crickets. It's easy to say that you can just flip a non-liquid asset, harder to do.
rockaction
Footballguy
I mean, if we all know it, chances are in savvy leagues they know the deal, too. Why would I flip Edmonds for just a third-round pick when he's a lottery ticket and a third-down back with passing work at worst?
You need to get something for him.
You need to get something for him.
rockaction
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
An early third in this draft isn’t bad. Besides, how long has people been putting the lottery ticket label on Edmonds?
rockaction
Footballguy
You never could get anything. He was clearly Drake's backup, thereby depressing his value, and once Drake left, everyone knew that Arizona would be looking back. Trust me, there was no window.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, I'm talking last year only. I also think you're overestimating him. I was contacted about him as a handcuff and handcuff only. We're talking third-round range. And I disagree upthread about third-round being enough. The draft isn't that deep. Edmonds was (an admittedly unsustainable because of touchdowns) RB22 through the sixteen fantasy weeks in half-PPR last year. That's a low-end RB2.
I'm not giving up a RB3 for a third-round pick. The return rates on even back-half second rounders are so low that you're better holding.
https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/04/what-is-a-dynasty-draft-pick-actually-worth-2021-fantasy-football/
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That 3rd might be looking good this time next year. Especially if they draft a RB with that 49th pick. Even if they don’t, Benjamin could very easily chip into Edmonds.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I don't disagree with any of this besides a future third looking good next year. Can't say I think Edmonds's value is that low. Benjamin and Ward could chip into his time, sure, but that's unlikely if they draft somebody. Eno Benjamin is a seventh-rounder and Ward is a UDFA. Neither have size/speed score advantages over Edmonds, and played behind him last year, so...
Anyway, enough on my end regarding Edmonds. I'm just explaining the thought process behind holding one particular guy in one particular instance. Mike Davis falls into this same category, IMO. You might, however, have been able to get something last year for Davis come deadline time, which would make this all moot. But acquiring him now for Mack? No brainer.
jtd13
Footballguy
Some of us were using the found money of a Davis or Gaskin last year to try to win. And even then, I can't say I could even gotten a 2nd. That market was cold.
Edmunds has probably had greater than dart throw value for max a total of 3 weeks in his career. The 2 weeks following his big game pre drake, and for half a week last year when Drake's injury looked more serious than it was.
Edmunds has probably had greater than dart throw value for max a total of 3 weeks in his career. The 2 weeks following his big game pre drake, and for half a week last year when Drake's injury looked more serious than it was.
Jeudy and it isn’t particularly close.
Lockett’s the best piece on the 4 Quarters For A Dollar side of the trade, and he’s an aging guy on a run first, run second, run third team.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I do agree about one thing. Of all those RBs initially listed, if there is hope, it is with Edmonds. Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and a good thing never dies. Andy.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
jtd13
Footballguy
I'll take Chubb and Allen. I get selling declining assets for a young stud WR, but there's a lot of points to be had from those 2 for the next few seasons.
rockaction
Footballguy
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
12 team PPR. 1 qb.
gave: 1.07, 2022 2nd
got: 1.11, 2022 1st
gave: 1.07, 2022 2nd
got: 1.11, 2022 1st
Jefferson. I like Allen's 2021 outlook but he's going into his 9th season.
It's essentially Chubb for Jefferson straight up.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ummmmm, it's not though.
I probably take jefferson here also, but this trade makes the chubb/allen team better for perhaps 3 years
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
In his 8 pro seasons, Keenan Allen has only once received 1200 yards.
So what’s 29 year old Allen worth to you? Multiple firsts?
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Not multiple unless its pick 12 this year and future 1st of a loaded team.
He is a very good WR and will continue to see a lot of targets from his up and coming 2nd year QB.
I can easily see Allen in the top 10-15 WR scoring a couple more times and almost certainly this year.
There is value in points, even if those points are projected to come to an end in 3 years.
Like I said, I probably go jefferson, it just might take 2-3 years to break even then maybe another year or so to reap the bigtime benefits, in which case Jefferson will be 26 or so which still puts him in 1st round startup territory if he maintains what he looks like he will.
It's interesting we take the same side of the deal and where I view it as roughly Jefferson = Chubb & 2 2nds = Allen, you think Allen is very undervalued by this metric. So that means you think Jefferson is leaps and bounds superior to Chubb
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I love me some Justin Jefferson but I think Chubb/Allen wins here. Not sure how you get that trade without a 1st being included, even if it is a future one. Not terribly uneven but Jeff Wilson can't be trusted at all and I'm a Niner fan.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I'd say you did good here. Before Drake signed in LV, this might have gone the other way and I'm sure some people go with the other side but I'm not a Chark fan and Big Bob Tonyan doesn't move the needle enough for me to not take Sanders and OBJs come back. I just hop he can find his way on to another team.Zyphros said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Just looking at a couple startups I was doing, jefferson went 6 in one and 8 in the other.
Chubb went 12 in one and 22 in the other.
Allen went 54 and 58.
Fairly small sample size but those ADPs would be startup pick 7 for picks 17 and 56. Pick 56 basically represents a future 1st in these.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think Jefferson is definitely worth a lot more than Chubb. Chubb will likely have his upside capped for at least one more year by Hunt, maybe two years in which he will then be 27.Edgar said:
When Chubb is 30 Jefferson will be smack in the middle of his prime years, not to mention I think Jefferson probably scores as much or more than Chubb every year over the next few years.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I see a lot of Akers trades, and I’d think most people will like this trade, but I’m tentative on him a bit. Seems bold to ship Akers and fuller for the 1.02 though. 1.12=2022 picks.
eta: looking at his yr 1 stats and not his playoff usage really looks bad. He was a beast in the playoffs, I’ll be curious to see what his usage is through the season this year.
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Probably Akers, but the 1.12 is a sneaky good piece in PPR Superflex. I have a SF tier drop after 12 (5 QBs, 3 RBs, Pitts, Chase/Smith/Waddle).
BINGBING
Footballguy
I still own 1.01, 1.07, 2.01, 2.02, 2.07, and 3.11. That obviously matters in this context, as I will be making moves to get back into that range. I don't even like Will Fuller, so he will also be used to move back up.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Born to Run
Footballguy
OK. Your trade makes sense now. That 1.02 is valuable in SF, but not as much as the 1.01.
rockaction
Footballguy
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Jones wasn’t used in the passing game anyway and Gio can’t be used as a runner anymore.
