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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Carson/RoJo with a bunch of crap behind them.
Specifically: I have Hyde, AP, Duke Johnson, and every ATL RB not named Gurley.
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The Future Champs
Footballguy
Ouch. You could definitely use some help there. That said, personally, Edmonds is the sort of player I avoid. I just don't see much potential there. Best (reasonable) case scenario is 8-10 carries a game, 4-6 targets, equaling an anemic flex starter. Murray is going to personally take a lot of a COP RB's value for himself.Carson/RoJo with a bunch of crap behind them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - that’s a concern I share. And based on AZ bringing in Drake to keep Chase in that COP role, I’m not convinced Chase will ever be handed the reins in that offense as a “feature” back. That said, Drake has his history with injuries.
Samuel is a bit of a mystery since he may not be with CAR next year. There’s a chance he signs somewhere that’s a worse situation for him. just don’t know.
It’s not a bad offer. Just not sure it’s one that makes sense for me at the moment.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
I'd hold Samuel and hope he ends up in a better position, or try to trade him for an RB with upside for next year, like AJ Dillion. I know that doesn't help your RB situation right now, but I don't think Edmonds is the answer.
Any thought to shopping Evans or ARob? I've got them both in my main league, and while I think they both have at least 2-3 more prime years ahead, I'm seriously considering moving at least one of them, Evans in particular. (Brady/Evans has sparked a fair amount of fanboy interest.)
That said, it's not a bad offer, and a good reply to the other owner is the minimum due.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve been shopping Evans for a year+ with crickets in response, even from teams in contention. Seems silly to me considering how productive he’s been and how he plays through injury to varying effect.
Had the Bucs not upgraded to the oldest possible QB it may have helped his value, but for now he’s my ride or die. I’ll likely try again to move him in the offseason.
Tepid interest in ARob as well, despite showing he’s QB-proof. People in my league seem reluctant to invest in the Bears offense.
Again, maybe that changes in the off-season.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Yeah. He probably changes teams, but I usually like rolling the dice on that situation.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I wouldn't read too much into any outlier data from this particular year. To your original point it depends on my confidence level of the situations the non-Lawrence guys are drafted into.
I will be adding one in my league with Bridgewater, Brees, and Darnold (and Trubisky for this week) as my QB's. I have an extra pick in the top 20 or so and I've refused to move it for anything but a better qb. It hasn't happened, so I'm hoping to earn a bye today and have Bridgewater back for weeks 15 and 16.
But I don't intend to add one in my league with Watson, Bridgewater, T Hill, Winston, and Darnold. Not any one reason but I already have a young franchise qb. I dont know if that's good depth or just depth, but the former is plausible. And I don't have an excess pick anyway. This class is good enough I'll consider it if that's how the draft falls, but I won't overtly try to get in position to get one like I am in league 1.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Only potential outcome i value Edmonds more is if Arizona let's Drake walk, doesn't add a meaningful free agent, and ignores rb until after the top 75 or so in the draft. That's plausible but its also a lot of if's.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I find all of that extremely unlikely given they could have done that this year & instead signed Drake. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that while they don’t mind filling in with Edmonds from time to time, they don’t see Edmonds as a long term feature back.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Whatever the Elliott owner is willing to take.
It’s so hard to say - all depends on how much the owner values him & whether the owner believes in Zeke’s future.
RC94
Footballguy
I'll rephrase because I don't know what the Elliott owner will want in any of my leagues. What I meant was what would you (anyone here) give for Elliott and consider it a good buy-low offer and giving up more would start to no longer be a buy-low deal? We can't predict what an owner will want, but I can set a price I'm willing to give and if it's not enough so be it and I move on.Whatever the Elliott owner is willing to take.
It’s so hard to say - all depends on how much the owner values him & whether the owner believes in Zeke’s future.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My answer doesn’t really change. It is highly situational. Depends a lot on whether the Elliot owner will be competitive next year regardless of whether Elliot bounces back or not, and also on whether the Elliot owner still has, or has lost faith Ezekiel Elliott.also probably depending on how deep The Elliot owners team is at running back.
at this point I would think you could offer a first round pick + A player that may fit the Elliot owners needs.
what are usually do in those situations is reach out directly to the owner and ask “are you interested in selling Elliott? float me an offer.” Let them make the opening salvo, and you’ll get a much better idea of what you’ll have to pay.
RC94
Footballguy
I get that it depends on the Elliott owner and his team, but I'm trying to keep this as a general dynasty value discussion and not a AC forum question.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I get that, but the situation makes this extremely case by case dependent.
we’re talking about a healthy busy girl Elliot who is still in a “Bilo“ situation… Or not, depending on how the owner feels.
if I had Izzy Keel Elliott on my roster I would be a firm home and I would not even entertain offers that I considered less than the value Elliot in September. Some might say that’s insane or stubborn or whatever… But I believe that will be Ezekiel Elliott‘s value in 2021 and beyond. Went healthy, the Cowboys have one of the best offense of lions in the NFL. When healthy the Cowboys have a quarterback that opens things up for Ezekiel Elliott.what’s taking Eli value is that neither Jack Prescott nor the offense of line are healthy.
The only way to find out what his value is right now is to reach out to the Ezekiel Elliott honors and have them extend the initial offer.
I just don’t think there’s an easy answer for you. I understand what you’re looking for, but this is a pretty unique situation in my opinion.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think the question is what he's worth to you.
If the Elliott owner wants to jump ship but knows you want him, he'll ask for more than he thinks Zeke is worth...because he knows you like him more than he does.
If the Elliott owner still likes him, you're in the same boat - you'll pay a decent price for him.
I would guess you'll pay a first plus in order to get him.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
QB stats were obviously going to be inflated a little this year simply due to lack of crowd noise. It's a real thing.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'd put Gibson somewhere between Josh Jacobs and De'andre Swift. On a bad team he's already putting it on the field despite being considered something of a project, at least that's what I thought of him. He should continue to improve as a player of football combining with his natural ability. Future top 5 rb is not out of the question, or top 1 for real.
CEH and JT were overvalued to begin with, the football games have only made it worse. Gibson is worth more.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Zeke owner, here. I'm not making or considering any offers til May. I don't expect his value to recover before then, but I expect it to recover about then.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I own Zeke as well and I expect Zeke to bounce back next year, so I am not selling low either.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I countered in the Edmonds offer with Fuller for Zeke to sniff out value.
Zeke owner countered & wants RoJo + Fuller for Zeke and I’m considering it.
My fear is that while it gets me a potential premium RB for next year, RoJo has just been much better than Zeke this year, and being the 1-seed I’m not seeing Zeke as an immediate upgrade to RoJo.
Man this one’s rough. But per the above, it does help answer “what’s zeke’s value” - in my case it’s RoJo + a suspended Fuller.
Zeke owner countered & wants RoJo + Fuller for Zeke and I’m considering it.
My fear is that while it gets me a potential premium RB for next year, RoJo has just been much better than Zeke this year, and being the 1-seed I’m not seeing Zeke as an immediate upgrade to RoJo.
Man this one’s rough. But per the above, it does help answer “what’s zeke’s value” - in my case it’s RoJo + a suspended Fuller.
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Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Smash accept for meI countered in the Edmonds offer with Fuller for Zeke to sniff out value.
Zeke owner countered & wants RoJo + Fuller for Zeke and I’m considering it.
My fear is that while it gets me a potential premium RB for next year, RoJo has just been much better than Zeke this year, and being the 1-seed I’m not seeing Zeke as an immediate upgrade to RoJo.
Man this one’s rough. But per the above, it does help answer “what’s zeke’s value” - in my case it’s RoJo + a suspended Fuller.
Rig24
Footballguy
Zeke owner here, and I would be happy to unload him, but only getting low end RB2 offers...I'll go down with the ship if thats all I can get.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Definitely thinking about it. I also divest from Bucs, since I’ve got RoJo, Gronk & Evans.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Don't over value RoJo. His inconsistency is remarkable. I'd accept that trade and I'm not even that high on Zeke.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dammit. Re-checked and he wants to do Beasley+Zeke for RoJo, ARob & Fuller.
Too much. As much as I’d like to have Zeke next year this weakens me too much this year.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s not as good as it looked. He added ARob too. It’s too much to give right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I probably might too in a vacuum.
in context it would tank my 2020 playoff run. Zeke is highly unlikely to outscore Jones & ARob over the next few weeks.
as the 1-seed and slightly favorited to win it all this year ($1000+ to 1st) I’m hesitant to do that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I countered with RoJo Fuller & a 2020 3rd foe Zeke & he rejected.
Clearly the Zeke owner in my league is not interested in selling low. :(
Clearly the Zeke owner in my league is not interested in selling low. :(
beef
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The Future Champs
Footballguy
How about a change of plans: look for an RB who should produce down the stretch, but has little potential long range value, and is currently rostered by a team that's going to miss the playoffs. Gaskin, Drake, Hines, Gallman, Bernard...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - just saw a shot at Zeke since he was coming at me with an offer this AM.
unfortunately we have 2 teams at 8-4, 3 at 7-5 and 4 at 6-6, so 9/12 are contenting. Of the 3 remaining, the only one who could deal a RB is team Zeke/Edmonds.
I may revisit in a couple weeks to see if I can get something done before the playoffs.
Now is the time to grab Trautman...Waldman did some film study on this kid and he’s going to be a good one
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How many current NFL QBs would you take over Trevor Lawrence in Dynasty leagues?
Mahomes, Murray, Watson, Herbert, and Jackson for me. And maybe Allen in 4 pt passing leagues. I'd take him over Wilson, Dak, and Burrow in all formats.
Mahomes, Murray, Watson, Herbert, and Jackson for me. And maybe Allen in 4 pt passing leagues. I'd take him over Wilson, Dak, and Burrow in all formats.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think I'd only take Mahomes and Watson ahead of him. Really.
Murray's play style makes him an injury risk.
Jackson just might not ever develop as a passer.
I like Herbert and Burrow.
But Lawrence is just flat out awesome.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
There's a lot imo. Rookie qbs are such a crapshoot, even #1 overall. When quarterbacks play into their late 30s, I'm not seeing the advantage in having an early 20s guy. Are we looking 10+ years into the future now in dynasty?
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Mark Football
Footballguy
How high of a pick would you be comfortable using if you needed QB help? 1 qb league.
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If this were the case I’d wait until Lawrence was off the board and then look to acquire Fields for cheaper. See what your league mates have at QB once Trevor is off the board and move up only before you feel he might get taken. This is riskier but I think the difference between the two in terms of fantasy assets might be a lot closer in value than where they are drafted in rookie drafts
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I wouldn't say I'm looking that far out, but I don't put a cap on the value I place on youth. I'll take a 22 YO QB over a 25 YO QB, all else equal, for example. (Not that I'd prioritize moving a 25 or even 30 YO QB, of course.) But if Lawrence lives up to the hype he'll be a high-end performer in a year or two.
And I can't think of a QB prospect of this caliber who went on to bust. We're talking Luck/Manning/Elway level, from what I've read.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
I come at this from the perspective of expected value based on historical data. Like I said, being the #1 drafted pick is a crapshoot.
You mention the hype, an entity which can not be quantified, or hasn't been that I know about. Just based off memory, I don't recall players regarded higher in FF than warranted to have a better track record.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I was referring to his general NFL hype, not fantasy. Scouts, coaches, pundits, analytics, etc. Based on that I'm comfortable manually adjusting the sample. That's a bad practice in general, of course, but it feels more accurate than any model lumping him in with Bradford, Goff, Baker, etc. - to me.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm asking myself that same question.
If I just needed "help" (like I already have a top 5-ish) I'll probably let someone else take him.
If I needed him for a starter I'd start thinking about it around pick 6. I break from the pack a bit in regards to the importance of the position in start 1 leagues. They're not important...unless you don't have one. There aren't THAT many elite QBs.
Lots of people wish they'd have taken Herbert in the 1st about now.
