Concept Coop
Footballguy
As of today, I'm only taking OBJ, Zeke, or Evans for Hunt straight up.
Edit: I'd happily take Julio over Gurley.
Edit: I'd happily take Julio over Gurley.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I just turned down an offer of DJ for Hunt straight up. In a different league I turned down Snead, Crowell and Abdullah for Hunt.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
They are 28 and 29, which seems crazy to say because it feels like just yesterday when they were rookies, but in my experience that's about the age when dynasty owners start getting more reluctant about paying top dollar for a player. Maybe those players have 7-8 good years left in the tank. Maybe it's more like 2-3. Either way, for the purpose of shaping a roster, their trade value will only keep declining from here on out. I had Julio in one league for the last five years and decided to cash out this offseason. I don't think there will be a better time.
That doesn't mean I'd take any deal for them just because they're getting old. Sometimes it's better to let the player decline on your roster and take the points than it is to make a bad trade. It just depends on whether or not you can get a deal that you like.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Before season started, I acquired Ingram for my 2017 2.02 developmental draft pick & a 2018 4th round rookie pickAndy Dufresne said:
kutta
Footballguy
Hunt has played 3 games. I think most people want to see him do it a little longer before putting him in the top 10
He also averaged 8.0 yards per carry over 200+ carries as a sophomore in college and caught 41 passes his senior year at Toledo. It's not like he just started being productive.
EBF
Footballguy
And yet he was a third round pick and the 6th RB selected this year despite that. If it was so obvious before now that he was an elite talent, why did so many teams pass on him in the draft multiple times?
I've always been lukewarm on Hunt and so this might not come as a surprise, but for me a more moderate position makes sense. Give him some credit for what he's done so far and bump him up significantly from his offseason rankings, but don't assume that he's a long-term mega star on the basis of a few games either. His size/speed/power combo looks pretty awesome and that's not going to change. On the other hand, one of the main things I see when I watch his KC highlights is his blocking clearing out big holes and lanes for him.
It can be easy to conflate RB performance and OL/blocking/playcalling performance when a back is struggling or dominating. It is hard to look good when you are getting swarmed in the backfield on every carry and it's hard to look bad when you're given chances to run into a wide open field. I'm not going to say that everything Hunt is doing is down to the situation, but the situation certainly hasn't hurt. Although I always liked Spencer Ware, he was a late round pick and was out of the league entirely for a year, and this same KC system made him look like a viable starter. How much of what we're seeing is Hunt and how much is the offense?
Anyway, the third round pick thing that I mentioned previously isn't that damning. Plenty of great backs were third round picks. Gore, Charles, and Murray come to mind recently. My point was that Kareem Hunt wasn't unanimously viewed as an elite prospect coming into the league, so citing his Toledo performance in hindsight to justify the idea that he has always been great doesn't really work. Personally, I'd have him as a top 10 dynasty RB now, but I wouldn't take him with a first round pick in a startup draft.
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kutta
Footballguy
There are lots of productive RB's in college, especially at the non-elite colleges that play non-elite teams. I'm not saying he's not going to be great. But I want to see it a tad longer before I rank him in the top 10.
I completely agree that KC's offensive lines has been one of the biggest surprises this year, and no doubt a significant % of Hunt's success can be attributed to that. But play calling is something that KC does better than most every team in my opinion. Their 'gadget' plays seem to be more successful than other team's, and not by accident. You can debate if playcalling is a temporary bump that other teams will scheme away, but Reed has been successful at this for many years.
Re: the NFL draft..i think it's pretty obvious we have to work in some fallibility into our hindsight analysis. Teams simply aren't good at drafting. Alabama players are routinely drafted 30+% higher than they should be because NFL teams dedicated scouting personnel exclusively to Alabama, so of course those players will be over drafted. Meanwhile, players from Toledo who a scout sees one or maybe two games of in person routinely fall through the cracks. It's an archaic system based on what scouts think they see. That's it. Point being, the "6th rb taken" argument doesn't hold much weight with me. Opportunity is king, and he has more of that than any rb in the league besides TyMo and maybe Gurley.
Nope, not as prolific and productive as Hunt with his combine #s. College production matters, and Hunt had more of it than basically anyone. To discount that is wrong imo
kutta
Footballguy
OK.
I went back and picked a random, recent year - 2013 - enough time where all these guys could be in the NFL. Here are the top five college rushing leaders by yards:
1. Andre Williams 2177
2. Jordan Lynch 1920
3. Ka'Deem Carey 1885
4. Bishop Sankey 1870
5. Tre Mason 1816
College production doesn't always equate to NFL success.
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Ok I'll play along here:
Andrew Williams - only average agility and zero production catching passes
Jordan Lynch - bottom 5% combine measureables
Ka'Deem Carey - bottom 5% combine measureables
Sankey - No real explanation, prolific in college and above average combine. Not sure why he didn't fire in the NFL
Tre Mason - was actually very productive in the NFL for a year before the Rams unexpectedly drafted Gurley. Flamed out with apparent mental issues. Also, did not catch passes in college.
So I ask again, what's the knock on Hunt?
kutta
Footballguy
You're the one who said "College production matters, and Hunt had more of it than basically anyone. To discount that is wrong imo." I'm merely pointing out that there are lots of productive college players who don't make it in the NFL.
Do i really need to add, "assuming the prospect doesn't have some other fatal flaw preventing NFL success." ?
C'mon
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
To each their own of course, but when I watch him play the first thing I notice is him swatting away defenders like flies, which I believe he's doing at a league leading or near league leading rate.
The impressive thing to me hasn't just been the big runs or the sprints through big holes. On those plays he typically gets more than the play is blocked for, and when there's nothing he often still gets something too. Like the first run of this video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpwePbnYWuY&t=0m2s
The second bolded part is of course the big question. To me, Hunt pops off the screen like few other RBs in the league. Regarding Ware, he ran for 4.3ypc last year and West for 3.8 in this same system so it's not like you can just plug anyone back there and get some amazing efficiency. Those are pretty modest averages that Hunt is obviously blowing away.
The other thing with Reid and his "system" is the question of how much of it is the system vs. how much is Reid being exceptionally good at identifying RB talent. It's not like Shady McCoy turned into a pumpkin when Reid left town. Most likely it's some combination of the two, but I truly believe Hunt was as much one of those incredible finds as he is the guy running the ball in Reid's system.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I think the issue is that there are so many variables that to say elite college numbers and combine numbers = NFL success there is majors flaws there.
I won't disagree with this too much, because identifying talent is obviously extremely difficult. But imo the starting point has to be college production and measurable athleticism. From that you can nitpick or tape grind or whatever.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
There is nothing to really argue with this. You obviously have to use the how the player played in college as a huge measurement to determine success and then add in, I suppose, combine numbers
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Those people missed their window. At one point it stopped mattering whether Arian Foster was as talented as Adrian Peterson. In the same way, I don't think it matters whether you think Hunt is a top 5 talent or not. Unless something crazy happens, he's clearly on his way to being a top 5 startup pick in the off-season. He's going for close to those prices now and the next 14 weeks project to pad or solidify that.
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kutta
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I agree with this. No one is letting him go right now. If you don't have him, you aren't getting him unless you pay a king's ransom.
I'm just saying that today, I wouldn't take him in the first round of a startup. I agree that next year, it's very possible that I would.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Ware started off last season with a 199 yard game, had a few more 150/160 yard games a few weeks later. He was also nearly untouchable for a time. Then he became human again. Wore out later in the season. Maybe that's what the wait-and-see group are waiting on? It wasn't very long ago and just throwing out a guess.
Hunt has been better than Ware. Historic even. I'm not disputing that. Chill out a little if you feel I am throwing the golden child under the bus. It's nothing personal. If Hunt got hurt, we all know West would become the hot pick-up of the moment. That KC run game is top notch.
Hunt has been better than Ware. Historic even. I'm not disputing that. Chill out a little if you feel I am throwing the golden child under the bus. It's nothing personal. If Hunt got hurt, we all know West would become the hot pick-up of the moment. That KC run game is top notch.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, his YPC is obviously coming down a lot over the next 13 games. 8.5 YPC is not sustainable. He can drop down to half that and still be viewed as a huge success, so that's not really a big issue, but he's not going to break a 50+ yarder every week. When a player is on the streak of his life, it's hard to be measured about his long-term outlook. I don't think he's a fluke, but whether or not he's one of the best backs in the league is still debatable for me. I think he's this year's Jordan Howard, but with more versatility and a better situation.
One of my issues with him at Toledo was how much contact he sought/endured as a runner, so that will be something to monitor long-term. He has the frame to take a beating, but nobody is invincible and given a choice I'd usually rather have an elusive back than a pounder.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm not saying you're wrong (about Hunt), but 48% of his yards have come on 4 plays...that's slightly worrisome. Workload is great, passes the eye test, etc. Just saying leading the league in rushing by 100 yards isn't the reason I'd have him top 10.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Another way to look at it is that he'd still be RB3 if you removed 48% of his yards.
Yet another way to look at it is that his YPC would still be over 5 if you removed three 50+ yard runs.
Andrew74
Footballguy
If I am permitted to talk about a college player here - what value does Barkley (2018 1.01) have at this point? I have two 1st in the race for 1.01 next year, so I hope to win the lottery. But if I don't, what to trade for the pick? Top 5 RB? Is he worth more than an older elite WR (e.g., Julio, AJG, Brown)?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
While I'm on your side on both players, it's called having a difference of opinion and frankly we do not know which side is the correct one yet really.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I think he's already in the top tier of RBs and I'd definitely trade the older elite WRs for the pick to get him.
Andrew74
Footballguy
With all the talk about Ben, I've been pondering offering AB for the pick at season's end.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
And it's carried over to the NFL.
"1. KAREEM HUNT – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
PFF Grade: 91.8
PFF Elite elusive rating: 158.0
Hunt’s numbers have been staggering. The rookie running back has taken the league by storm, both as a receiver and ball-carrier, with 17 broken tackles on the ground and another four in the air. Hunt has more than double the elusive rating of any other back in the league through three games."
"1. KAREEM HUNT – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
PFF Grade: 91.8
PFF Elite elusive rating: 158.0
Hunt’s numbers have been staggering. The rookie running back has taken the league by storm, both as a receiver and ball-carrier, with 17 broken tackles on the ground and another four in the air. Hunt has more than double the elusive rating of any other back in the league through three games."
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't have him in my top 12 right now. I think I could end up being very wrong about that, but he just doesn't look like many guys who have had productive careers. He's been better than I expected him to be, to this point, but I'm still not ready to invest at his current rate.
EBF
Footballguy
PFF's elusiveness rating is a deceptive stat because it not only includes tackles avoided, but also tackles broken/yards after contact. So anyone who is a powerful runner, but gets hit a lot will still look like an "elusive" back. Not really what I was talking about.Concept Coop said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's also breaking more tackles per touch than any other RB in the league--by a lot. He's averaging a broken tackle every per 2.7 touches, while the next closest is 3.7. Does that quality him as elusive?
Edit: Or do you specifically mean guys who aren't getting hit, whether they break said tackles or not?
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I haven't seen him moved in the last couple weeks. My offer of Hopkins+Shady was rejected without a counter. I see that offers of Julio and DJ were both rejected recently, according to the forum.
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EBF
Footballguy
To me, elusive means making nice cuts/avoiding hits. What PFF is calling "elusive" is what I would call powerful.
Just look at their list of "elusive" backs:
1. Kareem Hunt
2. Chris Carson
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Jordan Howard
5. Jonathan Stewart
Those are mostly bigger/stronger backs who excel at running hard. They aren't really the guys who come to mind when I think of agility and making nice cuts. Lynch was extremely shifty in his prime, but now I'm not so sure. The others are not guys who I would consider to be among the most elusive players in the league. To me it looks more like a list of players who are good at running through contact, not so much players who are good at cutting and making people miss.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yeah, I'd say that's fair. I haven't paid close attention to any of those guys this season, with the exception of Hunt, but they don't stick out to me as elusive (right now, at least). But I do think that Ajayi is one of the more elusive backs in the league, and PFF's metric have always loved him for that. Ajayi is certainly powerful, but plenty agile and has crazy balance. He makes plenty of "wow" cuts. I think Hunt is elusive in that same way. Maybe not at the level Ajayi was last season, but in the same mold.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
If I understand what EBF is looking for, I don't know that you can. Take Tarik Cohen and Marshawn Lynch. Put them in space and a defense will have a much harder time getting a finger on Cohen. But if and when they do, they'll have a much harder time turing that into a stop against Marshawn Lynch. EBF wants the guy who's not getting hit, not necessarily the guy who gets hit, but requires 2 or 3 to go down. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) I'm not sure how you quantitatively measure how elusive Cohen is.
That's basically how I understand EBF's take as well. But still, there needs to be a metric that tracks this so we can compare players and not just speak in generalities about what we think we saw.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Buy low/Sell high targets?
