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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
This year might be tricky to start turning over a new leaf like that -- because nobody might want them -- and 2023 is probably the wrong year unless people are willing to massively overpay. Just my two cents, Lehigh.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Spiller, Hall, Burks, Wilson, London, Walker. At least 2 of those are going to get a decent landing spot and I'd rather gamble on them than a team with Hurts as the Qb for another year, and that seems like it's identity will be run first.
I may also have an irrational intolerance to Eagles WR's, after being one of them guys that drafted JJAW.
I don’t get this line of thinking at all. For one, mocks are for the most part mostly junk and meaningless. More importantly, we actually know what Smith’s landing spot and situation is and it pretty badly sucks. His QB, likely to get at least another year, seems unlikely to support a consistent fantasy WR. And if that QB ends up being the guy?
As others have said, the fact that the Eagles have three mid 1st in a draft with a lot of mid 1st type WRs available is also potentially terrible for Smith if the Eagles grab one of them and now he’s batting for limited targets with another 1st round WR and Goedert.Exactly. The options that a pick like 1.02 presents are why it’s so much better than Smith right now. So what if the good WRs land in Cleveland or on the Jets? That’s honestly no worse than Philly right now. But what if they end up on the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, or some other high octane offense with a young franchise QB? Jackpot. And that’s not even accounting for the safety net of 2-3 likely second round RBs whom will likely get picked by teams with prime opportunities at the position.
I don’t get this line of thinking at all. For one, mocks are for the most part mostly junk and meaningless. More importantly, we actually know what Smith’s landing spot and situation is and it pretty badly sucks. His QB, likely to get at least another year, seems unlikely to support a consistent fantasy WR. And if that QB ends up being the guy?
Exactly. The options that a pick like 1.02 presents are why it’s so much better than Smith right now. So what if the good WRs land in Cleveland or on the Jets? That’s honestly no worse than Philly right now. But what if they end up on the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, or some other high octane offense with a young franchise QB? Jackpot. And that’s not even accounting for the safety net of 2-3 likely second round RBs whom will likely get picked by teams with prime opportunities at the position.
Smith is not a bust - we know he can get separation against NFL corners and his low BMI wasn't an issue. He finished top 30 in PPR as a rookie with a crappy QB. It's known commodity vs. unknown commodity for me. Whoever you take at 1.02, there's risk involved. I think Smith is safer at this point compared to the players in this class. I also think Smith's situation can change - Eagles could draft a QB or use those picks to trade for a QB.
For the record, I never said that Smith was a bust. I like him plenty. I’d just much prefer the “unknown” of one of a handful rookies at 1.02 to the known in Smith.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Where we putting Elijah Moore in relation to rookie picks either this year or next....................
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
battlestar
Footballguy
12 Team PPR Start 1QB no premium scoring beyond 6Pt TD's
Have an offer of:
Give Ceedee Lamb
Get 2022 1.4 and 2022 1.10
Trying to get the 1.8 instead of the 1.10
Feel like at worst I can get a near replacement for Lamb while adding more talent.
Just won an unforeseen Championship in this league so don't mind adding assets and continuing to build.
What say you? Take the deal? Hold?
Have an offer of:
Give Ceedee Lamb
Get 2022 1.4 and 2022 1.10
Trying to get the 1.8 instead of the 1.10
Feel like at worst I can get a near replacement for Lamb while adding more talent.
Just won an unforeseen Championship in this league so don't mind adding assets and continuing to build.
What say you? Take the deal? Hold?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I would not trade Lamb for that as I think his value will go up. Last year’s finish was poor and I think if Dallas gets their head on straight they will keep him in the slot and feed him.This class IMO is a bit underwhelming so unless you had ten guys you really like I am not sure this is anymore than “trading just to trade.”
ghostguy123
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hmm, figured more than thatHot Sauce Guy said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My trade calc has him at ~1.07-Ish.
Trade calcs are not the end all be all, nor do they reflect nuances. I see a talented WR with a QB that I believe has upside to develop.
On the other hand, some people might be hesitant to invest in Jets.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My god. I’m just about the biggest Pitts honk around and that’s a brutal overpay to me.
I have up Hopkins for the 1.08 to draft Pitts. And got a mid 2nd to boot!
That’s a crazypants trade.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ok, so what pick is the 2022 1st, and what does the team look like for the 2023 1st?
Probably still an overpay either way, but obviously the looks of the 1sts matter a ton
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'm not sure what I would offer for him. Not 1.01 though.
I was a bit surprised, as I figured the calcs would have him as a top 3 value.
Just realized I had the Dominator on SF. When i turn it off it has him worth 1.04.
Dynasty 101 has him worth ~1.04 to 1.06 (that's where it says "fair" but the 1.05 is closer to even points).
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's still a ton for Pitts. I feel like Williams, Friermouth & Toney might even get it done.
I don't see mention of TE premium - but then I'm not familiar with FFPC. Is it TEP?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
At first glance I thought it was an overpay.
if those firsts are late (should know where 2022 is or close to it) I stay with Pitts.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
OK, that makes more sense then, but still. I'm very high on Williams, which may be influencing my opinion here, but that seems like such an overpay.
Take out a player or a pick and it's a little more reasonable. Or if, as you suggest, the picks are low (1.11/1.12)
It's just hard to imagine paying that much for what one hopes is the next great TE, without evidence that he actually is. I believe he is, but I'm realistically concerned about the QB position on the Falcons after Ryan.
For this deal to pay off, Pitts would absolutely have to be Kelce for the next ~8 years.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I think the Pitts trade is an overpay. I think it's a real significant overpay, though who knows if the guy is clearing his roster with Toney. That sort of determines it. FFPC has short benches in the offseason, so I hear.
I think the Lamb trade is one of those things I just don't know about. I'd say if you can get the 1.8 that you kind of go for it. At least that's where I lean. Hindery has the picks as the losing side of that deal, by quite a bit, actually. So what do I know?
I think the Lamb trade is one of those things I just don't know about. I'd say if you can get the 1.8 that you kind of go for it. At least that's where I lean. Hindery has the picks as the losing side of that deal, by quite a bit, actually. So what do I know?
DropKick
Footballguy
I agree with you on both points. Freiermuth was not as sexy a pick but he was productive. Steelers need to find a QB but it wasn't like Ben was still on his game. Javonte is the principal piece and I see it as him for Pitts, will the other pieces sweetening the pot. Love the deal if I need a RB; maybe not so much if I'm silly deep at the position.
I cooled on Lamb some this year. Dallas really spread the ball around this year and didn't hesitate to use their 3rd receiver, be it Gallup or Wilson. Saw him have some mental lapses... 80 catches for 1,100 and 6 TDS isn't bad but we're expecting more. Haven't taken a deep look at the 2022 class, but a 1.4 and 1.8 is appealing.
battlestar
Footballguy
I appreciate all the perspectives but made the deal and gave Lamb for the 1.4 and the 1.8. Add that to my 1.12 and I have ammo to either move up further or punt to 2013 picks. It's a flex heavy league and I feel like I still have enough depth to consolidate and strengthen my starting roster further.
This may not matter to any of you but for me it is important context as I was not expecting to win it all this year but did. Was year two of my rebuild but Burrow and Chase went nuts for me at the perfect time.
Did I leave some value on the table? Perhaps but I like the additional asset added to my mix and am not done making moves.
Thanks to all who responded.
This may not matter to any of you but for me it is important context as I was not expecting to win it all this year but did. Was year two of my rebuild but Burrow and Chase went nuts for me at the perfect time.
Did I leave some value on the table? Perhaps but I like the additional asset added to my mix and am not done making moves.
Thanks to all who responded.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At the end of the day, it onlY matters that you like the trade.
I’m rooting for it to work out for you.
I would agree with 1.01 value for Moore. The trade value chart on FBG has Moore worth more than the 1.01.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
I'm a Moore fan, but I would sell instantly for the 1.01. I think his value is in the 1.04-1.08 range.
I would pay the 1.01. Probably not more, just wanted to offer another viewpoint.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree (my trade calcs both do as well)
if I had him I’d sell for the 1.01 for sure.
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sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I think I'm at 1.3 or 1.4 for E. Moore. If you were a WR away, I think there's a case for 1.1 or 1.2 in this draft, maybe getting something else back.
I can legitimately see wanting Moore and what he showed in his rookie year over any of the top rookie WRs once they find their home. Maybe one of the top rookies finds an amazing landing spot and you would have to give them the nod, but I'm not sure there will be two. Moore is essentially the "safe" WR conversion of an early 1st. Any bust potential there is pretty much limited to injury. Not that Jets WR is the pinnacle, but there's only so many decent landing spots out there for a rookie WR to come in and feast on targets. I think Moore can in 2022.
I can legitimately see wanting Moore and what he showed in his rookie year over any of the top rookie WRs once they find their home. Maybe one of the top rookies finds an amazing landing spot and you would have to give them the nod, but I'm not sure there will be two. Moore is essentially the "safe" WR conversion of an early 1st. Any bust potential there is pretty much limited to injury. Not that Jets WR is the pinnacle, but there's only so many decent landing spots out there for a rookie WR to come in and feast on targets. I think Moore can in 2022.
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Catbird
Footballguy
I was thinking 1.03 until I read this. Potential downside is Jets could spend on another top WR. Upside is that he has been outstanding in every respect but with a bad OL and rookie QB, so there should be substantial improvement around him. Being a Jet really masks his potential.
I would put Pitts in consideration as top overall valued player in FFPC and a top 3 lock and would also say this is a massive overpay as others have said and I don't care where those picks project.
I believe the Jets consider a bona fide #1 WR one of if not their biggest need and will be spending FA and the draft hunting for that guy. For that reason as well as roster spot considerations I'd prefer the more fluid asset of the picks in that range but also because I feel so confident that Jets do add a WR along with rookie hype that his cost drops. To be clear I'm not really concerned about them adding a true #1, I just think that drops his cost.
Read a tweet last night by a Jets beat writer who said he was asking around about Moore at the Senior Bowl this week and was told he'd be a top 15 pick if he was coming out this year,that the draft class had some good but not great WR's. WR's bust a lot, this guy spent the 7 weeks after his bye as a top 10 WR before he got hurt so has a degree of proven to him. 1.3 is likely to be when WR1 goes and I'd say for me a good chance I'd prefer him over any WR in this draft so I can't say 1.3 is worth it but I'd not pay it now for a reasons, but I do think that's on par with his real value in terms of expected performance from whatever WR you can pick at 1.3.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
To me the only risk with him is that his fate is tied to Zach Wilson’s arm.
As Wilson develops, the likelihood that Moore becomes a true WR1 becomes more likely.
That said, good WRs can have FF success with bad QBs - it’s just maddeningly inconsistent, and can be frustrating when drives stall. Still, the Jets are building a really nice core of young talent, and I’m a Wilson owner in SF - I believe in his upside & liked what he showed when he came back from injury.
I wouldn’t be afraid to invest in Moore for the right price.
I’m a HUGE Pitts fan and I am super excited about having him on my dynasty roster, but goodness.
However, in that format, you could make a case Pitts is one of if not the most valuable single player in the entire league. But still, a little too much for me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Value check: Derek Carr, superflex
trade calcs hate him.
trade calcs hate him.
Catbird
Footballguy
My issue with Carr is that he has rarely if ever been above NFL average in fantasy points and now has lost Ruggs, who didn't produce a huge amount, but was so fast that teams had to cover him deep and that pulled coverage from everyone else. That means they need another WR with 1st round speed/abilities for Carr just to get back to when he was a pretty average QB.
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
My questions with him are how will McDaniels handle being the head coach again? Also, how does Carr respond to McDaniels offense?
I don't think finding a top end speed guy will be a high priority. It's never been a priority in NE. Now if he had it he used it, but his focus was on TE, slot WR, and a receiving back.
For me he is a hold
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree - I think selling now would be a low point.
I fully expect the screen game & Drake to be relevant with the McDaniels hire - they have the weapons for that.
If Carr can thrive in his system, he could be in for a nice value bump.
I’m holding until I see how things shake out this year. I wouldn’t mind them drafting a WR or bringing in a decent FA though.
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
I agree that they need 1 or 2 vet/rookie receivers depending on if you believe Zay Jones revived his career or not.
He has value because he is going to be a starter but he is what he is at this point and that, imo, is a bottom level QB2 with limited upside. His top weekly finishes were QB7 (twice), one QB9 and three QB10 finishes. He had 9 games as QB18 or lower.
Depending on league size, I would put his stand-alone value at a mid-late 2nd (10 teams) to early 2nd (12) to late first (14+) but only if he's someone's QB3. Don't see someone trading him for that if he's their QB2. He probably has more value as the QB add-on if someone is down-tiering at QB
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is certainly the prevailing narrative.
I’ve also seen him play well above average for a long stretch of games. When he had Ruggs & Waller with Renfroe he was putting up some pretty solid numbers.
IMO he might have upside that we haven’t yet seen.
I am leaving open the possibility that he isn’t what he is, at this point. That perhaps he has another gear.
