ghostguy123
Footballguy
I have been trying to acquire Gronk in leagues for the last few years. Not any more.
If I owned him and was offered good value for him I would likely take it.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
If I owned him and was offered good value for him I would likely take it.
I'm a Gronk owner, and actually not looking to sell.
I get that the mounting injury history makes him risky, but there is such a shortage of week-to-week reliable TEs for FF that I can't see myself parting with him at a discount, given the downgrade I'd take at what is otherwise a "plug and play" lineup spot when healthy.
I own Reed in another dynasty league and feel the same way. Prefer the upside when healthy to whatever value not having to carry him on roster when hurt would be.
I get that the mounting injury history makes him risky, but there is such a shortage of week-to-week reliable TEs for FF that I can't see myself parting with him at a discount, given the downgrade I'd take at what is otherwise a "plug and play" lineup spot when healthy.
I own Reed in another dynasty league and feel the same way. Prefer the upside when healthy to whatever value not having to carry him on roster when hurt would be.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
As a gronk owner I'd still need a decent amount. Young prospect and a 1st anyway, which is probably down a 1st. It probably depends on the team that owns gronk- if rebuilding I could see them wanting to get some youth in there asap and may be more apt to take less. If I'm contending, I probably keep him and hope he can stay healthy and help my team or rehab his value a bit.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah I'm holding on Gronk unless I still get offered top top value.
Sure the injuries are piling up but the per game advantage he gives you when healthy is just insane. There just aren't really many other TEs worth getting excited about, especially in non-ppr. Maybe Kelce and that's about it. HH as a prospect but there have been a zillion of those guys that never broke out to nearly the level people were hoping.
I actually had Jimmy Graham as my backup to Gronk and was pretty meh on him all year. Felt like I was losing a ton when he was out compared to Gronk. Yet when push comes to shove, he was the #4 TE this year. Felt like I was starting junk compared to Gronk but he was the 4th highest scoring TE. With 120 points? That's like half a season for Gronk.
Sure the injuries are piling up but the per game advantage he gives you when healthy is just insane. There just aren't really many other TEs worth getting excited about, especially in non-ppr. Maybe Kelce and that's about it. HH as a prospect but there have been a zillion of those guys that never broke out to nearly the level people were hoping.
I actually had Jimmy Graham as my backup to Gronk and was pretty meh on him all year. Felt like I was losing a ton when he was out compared to Gronk. Yet when push comes to shove, he was the #4 TE this year. Felt like I was starting junk compared to Gronk but he was the 4th highest scoring TE. With 120 points? That's like half a season for Gronk.
If Bell loses a tier's worth of value for being a suspension threat, Gronk loses at least as much for his lifestyle. How well will the guy's game age when there is video of him being surrounded by strippers pouring vodka down his throat while holding sparklers? I think he actually non-sarcastically said he prefers to drink liquor with water because it keeps him hydrated and he can drink longer. Are we really surprised his body repeatedly breaks down ever season?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think people are worried about what the pot is doing to Bell's body. Rather, his potential eligibility to play in the NFL every year.
Right. The similarity is that outside influences are impacting dynasty rankings. Bell has a suspension threat, Gronk has longevity issues due to lifestyle
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think this is a reach. The guy likes to party, sure, but I doubt he's waking up in the morning and having a drink. I doubt he's hitting happy hour for 3 hours a day. He's a guy in his 20s who has access to some pretty awesome parties. I really doubt his offseason weekends are the reason he gets injured. It's being a beast in the middle of the field and crashing into 250 lbs and safeties.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Agree. If I'm anywhere near a contender he's worth more to me for the 4-12 games I'm going to get out of him than most offers are going to bring.
As an Abdullah fan I'm holding my breath. Detroit has a lot of cap money, too, so I won't be shocked if they add a significant RB somehow. If Abdullah had stayed healthy this year, I think he'd have proven himself and kept the job. Now it's a roll of the dice if he'll have significant competition or not.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm sure he works out just as hard as anyone when. Do you think that excessive drinking doesn't have an impact of athletic performance at the highest level. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't project him to have Gates/Fitz type longevity.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't know that he consistently drinks excessively. We've all see the pictures/videos from the party boats etc. - but do we really know that these events happen more than a handful of times during the offseason?
I think his injuries are more attributable to him playing a violent sport at arguably the second most punishing position. I'm thinking that whether or not he did some shots at 2:00 am a few times during the offseason that he'd blow out his knee when a safety dives into it.
I can agree that he may not have the longevity, but I'd say that has more to do with his numerous back surgeries that date back to college than his blowing off steam during the offseason.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I actually did trade away Gronk during the season after starting the year off 1-4 and looking to rebuild a little. I moved Gronk and Carlos Hyde for DeAndre Hopkins and the guy's first round pick, about a week or two before Gronk was lost for the season. At the time he also looked like a team that was going to miss the playoffs. Ironically we both ended up in the championship game (I lost) - so the trade wasn't as great in hindsight, but I'm still ok with it.
mikel2014
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
I'm not saying Abdullah is worth the price but I think it takes a first round pick to get him in most leagues. Probably around the 8-12 range. The issue is he is young so teams are highly invested. He had decent numbers prior to the injury this year and Zach Zenner isn't a known enough name to scare owners. Round 2 RB picks are probably viewed as an even bigger gamble than he is at this time. Heck, if I had him I would probably rather hold and hope over a 2nd round pick.
mikel2014
Footballguy
You're probably right. Most owners probably paid the equivalent of a mid-first and would not want to sell low.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Assuming start one QB, I wouldn't pay more than a mid second (which is where QBs usually get drafted) but their owners will want firsts.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
For me would depend on the size of rosters. For the FFPC where there are always serviceable QBs on the waiver wire, I would say these guys aren't really worth much at all.
In another league I play in with huge rosters and NEVER anything available on waivers, I can see them being worth a mid-late 1st.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Agree with the others that this one really depends on league format. I play in a few zealot leagues where you start 1 QB but rosters are big so that pushes them up in value because teams can hoard the position. I would maybe look at it more from a standpoint of where QB went last year. Dak had a great year and is on a good offense. I think his value is probably a few spots higher than where the top QB was drafted last year in your drafts. Wentz started out hot but was pretty average the second half. I don't think his value changes much from where he was drafted last year.
squistion
Footballguy
Adrian Peterson says he would like to stay in Minnesota, but if he were to leave the team:
http://www.hotnewhiphop.com/adrian-peterson-lists-three-teams-hed-like-to-join-if-he-leaves-minnesota-news.27680.html
http://www.hotnewhiphop.com/adrian-peterson-lists-three-teams-hed-like-to-join-if-he-leaves-minnesota-news.27680.html
What would be his fantasy value in rookie draft pick(s) for the three teams mentioned?
Pwingles
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
This is the start of if Minnesota drops me I would like to play anywhere that I am wanted.Adrian Peterson says he would like to stay in Minnesota, but if he were to leave the team:
http://www.hotnewhiphop.com/adrian-peterson-lists-three-teams-hed-like-to-join-if-he-leaves-minnesota-news.27680.html
What would be his fantasy value in rookie draft pick(s) for the three teams mentioned?
For me, he no longer has first round rookie pick value anywhere. Giants or Bucs I would look at a pick in round 2 if I picked in the later picks so I would consider him at about rookie pick #20 if I was looking for a short term fix. I don't know that Lamar Miller goes away if he goes to the Texans so round 3 for me (pick #30 ish). If I am not looking for a boost for next season only I probably just don't touch him.
Abdullah is a weird case because everyone is likely in a holding pattern until after free agency and the draft. If Detroit shows faith in him by not investing a top 3 round pick on the position, then he's clearly got a lot of value going forward. If they do bring in someone like Lacy/Martin or draft someone in rounds 1-3, then only a true believer in his talent would hang onto him or trade for him, because he's still got two more years on his contract. That second round pick would suddenly become pretty enticing. Personally, I've seen enough and there are enough experts that like him that I'm a fan, but that doesn't mean I'm confident Detroit feels the same way.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I own him in 2 dynasties, acquired in a trade in both, so I'm not invested draft pick wise. I think an early 2 (2.1-2.3) would be enough for me to let him go at this point, but I haven't really done my rookie scouting yet. I think I'd take a chance and hope I find someone like Howard who can wrestle the job away. I'm not sure Abdullah has the volume or the role to be a true fantasy asset. Better in real life, and a class act, but not going to be dependable fantasy option.
This can't really quantify what another owner would want for Abdullah but in terms of what you feel comfortable offering in terms of draft picks I would simply slot Abdullah into my current rookie pool and work from there, that is what I tend to do with all veterans. This is not easy to do right now with no combine or draft but everyone is making same valuations without that information.
For me I'd put take 6 RB's in this draft over him and 3 WR's. In TE premium leagues I'd put 2 over him which most of you are probably not in but it's about all I do so hard for me to rate TE's in single PPR format. So for me he's coming in as player 12 in TE premium leagues and I'd guess somewhere in 10-12 range in single PPR leagues. Since people love the new of rookie picks, and the fun factor can't be ignore, I'd buffer an extra pick or two to account for this so for me I'd think 2.1-2.3 range is about right, which was the range Snorkelson just referenced.
I'd also add I like Abdullah the talent more than I like his situation. One one hand Zenner and Theo are not world beaters but seems to be a system that goes RBBC when they can and most of all I like heavy pass catching RB's and believe Theo in particular is an obstacle so for me I'd gamble on the 6 RB's I'd take over him landing in a better situation or have enough talent I'd take them in worse situation.
For me I'd put take 6 RB's in this draft over him and 3 WR's. In TE premium leagues I'd put 2 over him which most of you are probably not in but it's about all I do so hard for me to rate TE's in single PPR format. So for me he's coming in as player 12 in TE premium leagues and I'd guess somewhere in 10-12 range in single PPR leagues. Since people love the new of rookie picks, and the fun factor can't be ignore, I'd buffer an extra pick or two to account for this so for me I'd think 2.1-2.3 range is about right, which was the range Snorkelson just referenced.
I'd also add I like Abdullah the talent more than I like his situation. One one hand Zenner and Theo are not world beaters but seems to be a system that goes RBBC when they can and most of all I like heavy pass catching RB's and believe Theo in particular is an obstacle so for me I'd gamble on the 6 RB's I'd take over him landing in a better situation or have enough talent I'd take them in worse situation.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think the main problem for Abdullah in fantasy is that Theo Riddick is very good and is not going to go away. So that limits Ameers opportunity even if he manages to stay healthy a full season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In terms of NFL draft picks I doubt a team would give more than a 2nd round pick for Peterson. Even that seems somewhat doubtful to me because teams know the situation the Vikings are in with Peterson set to make $18 million in 2017. I tend to think teams wait the Vikings out. Some time in March the Vikings have to decide if they will pay Peterson a roster bonus. If a trade were to happen, it likely would need to be before then. I think if teams just wait the Vikings will end up cutting Peterson.Adrian Peterson says he would like to stay in Minnesota, but if he were to leave the team:
http://www.hotnewhiphop.com/adrian-peterson-lists-three-teams-hed-like-to-join-if-he-leaves-minnesota-news.27680.html
What would be his fantasy value in rookie draft pick(s) for the three teams mentioned?
Peterson is not the type of player to take a pay cut.
My cousin and I were talking about how the Vikings have handled veteran star players recently, for example they paid Jared Allen $17 million in the last year of his contract. Allen clearly wasn't worth that although he did come close to the season record in sacks the season before. It was kind of paying him for past performance. It is possible the Vikings do this as an overall strategy to attract older veteran players, who will see how the Vikings have treated these players in the past, very well, and that maybe makes the team more attractive for veteran free agents to sign.
The strategy recently for the Vikings is to not sign older players to big money deals, so that does not really fit the attract older veteran players strategy. However since Zimmer arrived veterans such as Newman have made significant contributions even though they are near the end of their careers.
No other team is going to want to pay Peterson $18 million this year either. So I would think to get a deal done would also require renegotiating a new contract for Peterson as well. How reasonable this is likely has some impact on what teams might be willing to give in trade for him.
If he went to the Texans he would be in a time share with Miller. This move really doesn't make sense. It is just Peterson's connections with the state that makes it a consideration for him.
The Giants and Bucs have more of a need. I don't really see Peterson fitting in with McAdoo's offense, but maybe I am wrong about that. Out of those 3 teams, the Bucs perhaps the more likely fit. I still think it will be as a free agent rather than a trade though.
For fantasy I wouldn't expect Peterson to have over 250 rushing attempts with whatever team he plays for. Due to time share with a RB who can block and is a better receiver (not that hard to find as Peterson is below average in these areas) or due to Peterson missing some games.
I do think he will play and get something like 200 rushing attempts, but unless he scores a lot of TD I don't see him performing as more than a RB 2 in fantasy in 2017.
If somehow Peterson stays with the Vikings I see the same thing occuring as far as Peterson's opportunity as he will time share with McKinnon.
In dynasty I likely wouldn't give much for him in trade. Not even a 2nd round 2017 rookie pick. A 3rd in 2017 or 2nd in 2018 or some player(s) who are not part of my long term plans is about all I would pay for him at this point.
I am completely open to Peterson proving me very wrong about this, bur thats how I see things playing out.
I fully agree with the bolded, but I don't think it's as bad as it seems. I agree Theo holds him back in the reception department, but how much does he hold him back? Abdullah had 5 targets in week 1 of this year (although zero in 17 snaps before his week 2 injury). Detroit throws to their RBs at a decent clip, so there's room for both backs to catch passes, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Abdullah plays well enough to keep Theo off the field. People forget just how good he is due to a slow start to his rookie year, overall disappointing aggregate stats, and then an early injury in his second year. But once JBC took over in 2015, Abdullah's ypc went from 3.6 ypc in games 1-8, to 4.7 ypc in games 9-16. And outside of his 40 time, his stats are amazing, especially his college dominator stats: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ameer-abdullah/menobrown said:
It makes you wonder if that 40 time wasn't an aberration. I don't trust pro day results much, but it's worth noting he likely is faster than his combine number, although I don't buy the 4.4 assertion: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2386640-ameer-abdullah-boosts-draft-stock-with-faster-40-at-nebraska-pro-day
I like the playerprofiler comparison to Ahmad Bradshaw. Of course Bradshaw could only muster a single 16 game season out of his 9 year career due to chronic foot problems, but when he was healthy he was a great RB and quite the fantasy asset.
Finally, I'd like to remind everyone just how pedestrian of an athlete Riddick is: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/theo-riddick/
wakelawyer
Footballguy
You won't see any team give up anything for Peterson with his current contract. No one is paying him $18 million next year. So he either renegotiates or the Vikes cut him. And the Vikes will cut him because I can't see him renegotiating and the Vikes won't pay him under the contract. So he becomes a free agent. And, given the draft class and other vets on the market, as well as AP's baggage, I'd be surprised to see any team give him more than $4 or 5 million in real money for 2017. And I'm not sure that AP would play for that amount. With that in mind I think that there's a realistic chance that AP may end up like Welker and be forced into retirement because of contract demands.Biabreakable said:
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
What is Spencer Ware's value in draft picks. Is anybody giving up a late first for him?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
That sounds pretty fair, probably not going to be cheaper at any point this offseason, and if Jc leaves that goes up. Now is the time if you like him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have no idea what teams will offer to pay Peterson or his willingness to renegotiate a deal for the money you are talking about.
That said I really doubt he would retire because of salary demands. He wants to play.
ETA - Welker was a different situation because he had all those concussions that made it uncertain how long he would play as part of it. Peterson is 32 years old but he does not have a major health issue such as what happened with Welker.
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Andrew74
Footballguy
I think that's probably the top end of the range. I could see him going for anything between 1.10-2.05. I gave up what ended up being the 1.11 and 2.02 for him back in week 3 or so. In hindsight I feel like I overpaid, but he was (sadly) my RB2 the whole season and I made it to the big game, so not too terribly bad.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I agree with this. Peterson thinks he has 5 more top years left. I think he also wants to cement himself as one of the best rushers of all time. I think he wants to play for several more years. I'm just not sure if he will ever be fantasy relevant in those years.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I wouldn't. Based on my draft list a mid 2nd is the highest I would go. Otherwise I'd rather roll the dice on the rookie talent.
wakelawyer
Footballguy
Time will tell. But I remember AP demanding a new contract before he committed to playing for the Vikes last year. He wants money. He likes money. He'll push for money. I understand that he said that he'll take less than $18 million but how much less.
Only two RBs have a contract with an average of more than $8 million per year -- AP and Jamaal Charles. Only 10 RBs have a contract with an average of more than $5 million per year. And only 21 RBs have a contract with an average of more than $3 million per year. So, even though you have no idea what someone will pay, it's very likely that he's going to get his contract cut in half, and most likely a lot more.
Maybe he'll agree to play a few more years and make $5 million per year or even $6 or 7 million. No one knows. But I do know that the guy negotiating last year didn't sound like a guy that was willing to play for less than $10 million. So, as I said, there's a "realistic chance" that his pride takes over and he doesn't sign a contract. I didn't say that it was likely but there is certainly some percentage chance that it could happen.
To say that there's no chance that he won't be signed by another team after being cut means that you're certain that either a team will give him what he wants or that he'll be willing to accept any offer that he gets. And that doesn't always happen.
I get your point, and it's totally valid at face value. But there's no chance that AP isn't signed by someone for 2017. None.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Peterson's contract demands certainly make it very difficult to trade him. I don't know what the market will bear for Peterson who is somewhat limited in what he can do for a team and has some serious holes in his game such as pass protection, fumbles, not good out of the shotgun formation, below average receiving option.
I mean in some ways Peterson is like an older Alfred Morris with big play ability as a runner. The NFL market does not seem very strong for a player like this.
Peterson is likely a future hall of fame player and has some marketing appeal for teams because of that. This is of course tarnished by the incident that caused him to be suspended in 2014.
While Peterson seems very stubborn, I still see his priority to play being greater than the money that he is making. It is going to require some humble pie on his part to play again. He will likely still push to be the highest paid RB in the league, deservedly or not.
I mean in some ways Peterson is like an older Alfred Morris with big play ability as a runner. The NFL market does not seem very strong for a player like this.
Peterson is likely a future hall of fame player and has some marketing appeal for teams because of that. This is of course tarnished by the incident that caused him to be suspended in 2014.
While Peterson seems very stubborn, I still see his priority to play being greater than the money that he is making. It is going to require some humble pie on his part to play again. He will likely still push to be the highest paid RB in the league, deservedly or not.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
What's Cam Newton's value going forward? He looked scared to run last year and who can blame him with all the big hits (both legal and illegal) he was taking. Do the Panthers bounce back or was 2015 his peak and now he'll settle in somewhere around maybe QB 7-10?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Peterson has no fantasy football trade value let alone actual football trade value.
squistion
Footballguy
I think you could get a 3rd for him in most leagues...if you want to argue that a 3rd is of no fantasy football trade value I might disagree...
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Not even sure you're getting that. Maybe on name value alone. Looked awful when he did play this year and he'll be 32 in a couple months.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Standard league I'd gladly pay a 3rd.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Can we really use the small sample size from this year to draw the conclusion he has little/no value? He's easily worth a 3 at minimum.
