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Dynasty start-up: break the bank for 1 player (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
You’re in a startup dynasty league, no salary cap, and you’re committed to spending 20% (or more) of your $500 budget on 1 player.

All TDs = 6, Ru/Re = .1/1, Pa = .1/2

So much has changed since week 1.  Just curios to see who people value as the #1 dynasty asset now that half the 2019 season has passed. 

That player’s name is _______________, and you’re willing to break the bank for him because ____________? 

 
Its so hard to bet against Mahomes right now. Even with his recent struggles and his injury, he is just a human cheat code and locking down the best QB is often a championship winner. 

Other names that come to mind are Saquon, Elliot, and MacCafferey, but barring injuries lingering Mahomes will have a longer period of productivity. 

 
Saquon Barkley has 1,680 career rushing yards, 113 receptions, 882 receiving yards, and 18 career TDs. In 21 games.

At the end of this season he'll still be 22 years old.

/fin

Caveat: In 2-QB / superflex, Mahomes is the only acceptable answer. I would gladly spend 40% of a startup budget on him and not think twice.

 
I would do it for Mahomes.  While Saquon is THE RB of this decade, next decade when there is a new RB of the decade, Mahomes will still be playing.

 
ffmail4me said:
RG3 looked like a generational talent his first year too...things can change quickly 
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that is not a valid comparison to Maholmes.  RG3 was existing and was fun to watch but everyone knew he was reckless and would be in trouble if he didn't change his game.  Mahomes is a much better passer and has better QB skills than RG3 ever had.  Baring a fluke injury (unlike the injury that was likely with RG3) he will be viable for many years.  Of course, something like the Luck situation could happen but that could happen to anyone. 

 
Oh I agree Mahomes is 10x the QB and prospect Griffin was, I was just responding to the idea that Luck is the only example of a QB suddenly not having the perceived long term value (RG3) 

 
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dahabi said:
That's a crazy comparison. He's literally the only QB of our generation to do something quite like that. Neil Lomax?
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Here's a little statistical nugget for you: In the post-merger era, QBs have recorded 61 fantasy seasons of 250+ points in their year 11+ in the league. Well over half of those 61 seasons (35, to be exact) were courtesy of exactly six guys: Brady, Brees, Rivers, Big Ben, A-Rod, and Peyton.

There is absolutely no guarantee that the "QBs as productive fantasy starters well into their 30s" wave we're experiencing will persist when those other 5 join Manning in retirement. Not only could it be a freak statistical coincidence, I think it's actually pretty likely. And whether a guy retires or fades into irrelevance a la Eli / Flacco, the net effect from a fantasy perspective is the same.

 
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I was trying to think if there was a single WR that could meet the criteria and only Thomas comes to mind. But I don't think I could pass up Mahomes, CMC or Barkley. Truth is I wouldn't break the bank for any of them. If I hold the #1 I try to trade down to 4, 5 or 6. I'd put Thomas ahead of Zeke.

 
Caveat: In 2-QB / superflex, Mahomes is the only acceptable answer. I would gladly spend 40% of a startup budget on him and not think twice.
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In that format I spent $120/500 on Mahomes & was criticized for overspending, so I’m glad to hear some like-minded feedback on this one. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I was trying to think if there was a single WR that could meet the criteria and only Thomas comes to mind. But I don't think I could pass up Mahomes, CMC or Barkley. Truth is I wouldn't break the bank for any of them. If I hold the #1 I try to trade down to 4, 5 or 6. I'd put Thomas ahead of Zeke.
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Generally when talking $/budget it’s for auction draft, so draft pick wouldn’t really come into play, but I get your point regardless. :)  

 
Mingooch said:
I would do it for Mahomes.  While Saquon is THE RB of this decade, next decade when there is a new RB of the decade, Mahomes will still be playing.
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Agreed. And RBs get hurt so much (see: Saquon this year) I just can’t see spending that much. RB as a high pick in redraft is fine, but for dynasty give me the WR or QB. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I was trying to think if there was a single WR that could meet the criteria and only Thomas comes to mind. But I don't think I could pass up Mahomes, CMC or Barkley. Truth is I wouldn't break the bank for any of them. If I hold the #1 I try to trade down to 4, 5 or 6. I'd put Thomas ahead of Zeke.
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Hopkins could be on that short list, too. 

the recent trade chatter was disturbing (as a Hopkins dynasty owner) but he’s proved to be QB-proof, and he’s not that old. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Generally when talking $/budget it’s for auction draft, so draft pick wouldn’t really come into play, but I get your point regardless. :)  
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Oh shoot yeah my bad. I am a very strong auction drafter for redraft but have never done it for a dynasty startup. I should, though. With that in mind, I would definitely pay up for a couple of those names perhaps. I might go something like Mahomes/Thomas/CMC. Could you get that for 350? Then I'd grab tons of cheap players with the balance and build. Do you buy future draft picks out of the auction budget or are they made available later? 

 
Great timing on this thread and cool idea.  

Just today, I dealt 4 2020 1sts (likely all between 8-12) for CMC and a very early 2020 2nd in a 12 team Superflex.  I’m now rolling out CMC and Cook at RB.  I like acquiring studs as they can be such weekly difference makers and this is a weekly game after all.

i know it is a lot but with them all being likely late and a chance to get another true stud at RB I wanted to roll the dice and see if I can make a run in the first year of a startup.  Plus my team is young and i will have an even stronger team next year just from likely progression.

 
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I go nuts on studs in Dynasty startups.  They hold their value better and leave room for a ton of lottery tickets at the bottom of the roster.

The last two I did (this past offseason) I ended up with Mahomes, Barkley, Kyler, Juju, Tyreek in one and Mahomes, Watson, Barkly, Juju in another.  I have multiple 2020 firsts as well, so these teams are looking like they are going to be amazing for years.

How did I get multiple 1st round startup picks including the 1.01 and the 1.02?  Trading like crazy in the second, the first was an auction.  The consensus is that everyone wants to trade down to accumulate depth, going against the grain has some value IMO.

 
I have no idea how to budget a dynasty auction, but for people that are going Mahomes, what about Watson?  Isn't he now in the conversation as far as 1A and 1B go in terms of both redraft and long-run value? 

 
rockaction said:
I have no idea how to budget a dynasty auction, but for people that are going Mahomes, what about Watson?  Isn't he now in the conversation as far as 1A and 1B go in terms of both redraft and long-run value? 
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I still have Mahomes pretty far out ahead.

Mainly because I think Mahomes is a bit better and I'm worried about a Watson injury - Watson doesnt preserve himself as much as I'd like him to.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
easy for you perhaps - but RB would be the last position I’d break the bank for. They get hurt often, and RBs seemingly come out of nowhere every year. 
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Can't you say this about any position?

Austin Ekeler is the only top 10 scoring RB this season that is really a big surprise, and even that was somewhat predictable with Gordon holding out.  It certainly doesn't hold a candle to DJ Chark magically becoming a top 5 WR nor the TE landscape having Austin Hooper as TE1, Darren Waller TE3, Darren Fells TE8, and Will Dissly still being TE9 despite not having played in 4 weeks.

Saquon is a 22 year old Marshall Faulk which is pretty much the most valuable thing you can have in fantasy football.  Only CMC potentially being the same thing even enters the discussion for me.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Saquon is a 22 year old Marshall Faulk which is pretty much the most valuable thing you can have in fantasy football.  Only CMC potentially being the same thing even enters the discussion for me.
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In an auction format, I would not be at all surprised to see whichever one of these two that was nominated 2nd go for more than the one who was nominated first.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Saquon is a 22 year old Marshall Faulk which is pretty much the most valuable thing you can have in fantasy football.  Only CMC potentially being the same thing even enters the discussion for me.
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Saquon is Marshall Faulk running around in Jim Brown's body.

Totally not fair.

 
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ffmail4me said:
RG3 looked like a generational talent his first year too...things can change quickly 
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I have this concern about Lamar Jackson.

By all accounts he is really mentally tough and does a good job of not taking big hits, but he's really walking that line too tightly I think.  Cam Newton could take those hits because Cam had the body.  Lamar does not have the body, I'd like to see him doing what Kyler does and just go down when he's about to get hit, rather than get a few more yards.

Deshaun Watson too - you're an elite QB so sacrificing a few yards each time you run is well worth it.

 
some of the WORST startup teams I've seen are ones where guys went all in on just a couple of studs, and finished their roster with nothing but long shots.

It's fine to build around ONE stud, but breaking the bank to get two is often a grave error

 
renesauz said:
some of the WORST startup teams I've seen are ones where guys went all in on just a couple of studs, and finished their roster with nothing but long shots.

It's fine to build around ONE stud, but breaking the bank to get two is often a grave error
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Were they productive struggles doing it on purpose? 

In my examples above where I spent it all on 4 or 5 super young studs, I'm building a ridiculous core to build around, and I won't win in year 1, but my early 2020 1st will add another stud to the core.  Also have multiple later 2020 1sts, so next year I should be able to slingshot from last to playoffs and only going up from there with the core being so young and studly.

IMO only the most elite young studs maintain value through almost anything.  Those are the only players who you can look ahead more than 2 or 3 years on. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Were they productive struggles doing it on purpose? 

In my examples above where I spent it all on 4 or 5 super young studs, I'm building a ridiculous core to build around, and I won't win in year 1, but my early 2020 1st will add another stud to the core.  Also have multiple later 2020 1sts, so next year I should be able to slingshot from last to playoffs and only going up from there with the core being so young and studly.

IMO only the most elite young studs maintain value through almost anything.  Those are the only players who you can look ahead more than 2 or 3 years on. 
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not productive, but they were deeper lineups (start 11 or 12) and superflex.

I've found better luck going heavy after (young) 2nd/third tier guys and the higher ranked rookies.IN startups (inclduding an auction) this year I drafted a lot of Kupp/Lockett/Golladay types adding tons of rookies like Sanders/Deebo/Hollywood. It's common for a a couple of those guys to break into the STUD category you're looking for while leaving some depth and quality darts. IE: Instead of spending 80% on 3 players...try spending that 80% on 7 or 8

 
renesauz said:
some of the WORST startup teams I've seen are ones where guys went all in on just a couple of studs, and finished their roster with nothing but long shots.

It's fine to build around ONE stud, but breaking the bank to get two is often a grave error
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I actually took that approach this year in a start up dynasty… I spent 70% of my budget on Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, and DeAndre Hopkins.

it wasn’t totally my plan… My plan was to get two out of those three, but I was working on the first day of the draft and by the time I won two of them, it was too late as I had been bid up on the third player to the point of no return.

it’s a two quarterback super flex league, and I managed to salvage with value picks  like Derek Carr,  Tom Brady, Mark Ingram, Tyrell Williams, Sutton, Evan Engram, And then made a lot of trades a future draft picks to acquire some younger players like KeeSean Johnson, Tyler Boyd, Demarcus Robinson, and a few others. Finally, I traded Kamara to get Mike Evans and Sony Michele.

so long story short, I agree with you that it is risky, but it’s not necessarily a death sentence. What do you have to do is not be too attached to any of those studs to the point where you’re unwilling to parlay them into more players or more future picks. 

it helps that it’s a no salary cap league. 

 
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there's no such thing as a 'generational' player, it's just a catch phrase.just how many 'generations' does Tom Brady cover, then? how many did Peyton manning cover? 

I think the current catch-phrase QB in KC is closer to a Mark Rypien, who had a couple really good seasons in Washington, than he is to the HOF'er y'all make him out to be after 1 and 1/3 years as a starting Qb. you remember Rypien , right? the guy who won a SB, had a cup of coffee as the best QB in the league, just like Rich Gannon, and others.

Saquon comes to mind. haven't heard anyone mention him yet, but I'm sayin'  Nick Chubb, it's funny that ppl conveniently forget/overlook just HOW GOOD he really is - 5.5 ypc avg 2019, 5.3 for his career. on a VERY bad team, with a suspect o-line. do you all have blinders on? he's closer to a clone of Eddie George or Bo Jackson than anyone realizes. This guy is a BALLER, no matter the opponent.y'all have the 2019 Pats as the best ever defense right, I mean they're far better than 2000 Ravens, 86 Giants, 85 Bears, Legion of Boom, Peyton Manning's Denver defense in your minds,  correct? well, Chubb obliterated them last week and could've done MORE damage if not for the stupidity of the team he plays for. he's  incredible. he's the ONLY mega carry per week RB left in the league. sorry John Riggins, but Chubb is the Diesel. imagine how good he is with a competent coaching staff.

what happens to the catch phrase QB in KC when Andy Reid gets fired at season's end for failure to win a SB or a playoff game, and some johnny-come-lately comes to town to coach? what if they get a run-first OC? what he did last year was nice, but its unsustainable. look at his stats after the detroit game. all of his stats are down precipitously, I mean, major down trend. ok so he can throw a no look pass, but that's good in basketball not sure the value of that in the NFL and why is it so fawned over?  people are so ga-ga over this catch phrase QB it's comical. He's not half the QB Watson is ( anyone who watched Watson win that nat'l championship knows how good he is/was/will be). I see the KC QB as another D. Culpepper or Randall Cunningham - some really good seasons, but not a HOF'er.sorry to burst your bubbles. he's a product of the system - Matt Moore just did well in the same system/and McNabb did too back in philly. let's not break out the anointing oils just yet.as Troy Aikman said about the Kc QB " call me when he wins a title". hey, Cam Newton won an MVP too.what's he done since?! the road is littered with MVPs who never repeat or even come close.

if I'm talking about a QB I'm going for D. Watson or the one and only Russell Wilson - not only is he a 'joystick' qb ( whatever that means) but he actually wins important games and SBs and is deadly in postseason and is a LOCK HOF'er. If I knew Rodgers would be 'back' as he appears to be, I'd put 20% of my money on him. Matt Ryan is still young and is exceptionally good , and will be for a long time. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Watson doesnt preserve himself as much as I'd like him to.
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Watson takes hits but I think is getting better (I haven't watched him in full since the first three or four weeks of the year. Oh yeah, I watched the KC game.)

I agree, though. There are times he runs when I just cringe. I'd like to see him stepping up in pockets rather than sort of running around haphazardly in them to get away from pressure.

Feel the rush, step up in the pocket, then improvise like Big Ben once did when that fails.

 
rockaction said:
Watson takes hits but I think is getting better (I haven't watched him in full since the first three or four weeks of the year. Oh yeah, I watched the KC game.)

I agree, though. There are times he runs when I just cringe. I'd like to see him stepping up in pockets rather than sort of running around haphazardly in them to get away from pressure.

Feel the rush, step up in the pocket, then improvise like Big Ben once did when that fails.
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He’s still a bit too reckless for my tastes, but yeah; he’s a little better about it.

the catch-22 of Watson is that his recklessness is what made him so valuable. Along with his more conservative approach, he’s not scoring as many FF points. he hasn’t been bad, but I don’t think he’s putting up “break the bank” sort of numbers. 3/8 games of 300+ passing, and while he’s still running the ball a bit the results aren’t that consistently impressive.

6 fumbles in 8 games, with 2 FL isn’t ideal either. 

maybe he has bigger games ahead and he’s certainly not a bad dynasty asset, but when your QB rushes  ~6x a game, they’re exposed to a lot of hits. And that’s just on positive runs - Watson also scrambled around a lot but doesn’t consistently throw the ball away. He was sacked like 62x last year. I think he’s up to 24 already this year, which is better, but still a lot of hits. Granted, a lot of those are coverage sacks or poor OL play, but a few were avoidable. 

and while it’s awesome to see a QB play hero ball & make the impossible throw while getting kicked in the face, if you’re a dynasty owner who’s broken the bank on him, you’d probably want to see a lot less of that. Heh

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
easy for you perhaps - but RB would be the last position I’d break the bank for. They get hurt often, and RBs seemingly come out of nowhere every year. 
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WRs and QBs come out of nowhere every year also

 
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