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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

IC FBGCav said:
Tell me the ones other than this you had.
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Flu shot every year among boosters for other shots you typically get when going for your well visits. But hey if you want to continue to play dumb could you go do it else where and not pollute the thread with your BS? 

 
DJackson10 said:
Flu shot every year among boosters for other shots you typically get when going for your well visits. But hey if you want to continue to play dumb could you go do it else where and not pollute the thread with your BS? 
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I thought you left a long time ago.  You should have considered coming back more.

 
IC FBGCav said:
How many boosters?  Infinite?
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Of course not. Up front they'll need to be more frequent, as the virus is novel, with a big pool to mutate. But hopefully it will settle out to every year or two long-term. Kinda like influenza vaccination. Such a minor inconvenience in the grand scheme of things.

Based on the level of b!tching about trivial stuff like wearing masks and boosters, some of you guys are in for a rude awakening, when your health requires you to make real sacrifices. Unfortunately, few people escape that reality.

IC FBGCav said:
Is it really a vaccine at this point or not?
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Already been covered, repeatedly. Of course it is, just like multiple other vaccines that require periodic boosters. Since when did vaccination mean "single shot"? ####, most vaccines require multiple shots. And none are 100% effective.

Everybody gets it. You think natural immunity is all you'll ever need, and it's better than the vaccines. Nothing will dissuade you. That's fine. But please stop with the unsubstantiated crazy talk, conspiracy theories and badgering people who post updates and evidence that runs contrary to your dogma.

 
IC FBGCav said:
Sure.  Month good.  Do me the same in cydy thread.
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I never post in the cydy thread, because I know little to nothing about speculative investing.

Perhaps you should remain on the sidelines in the covid threads, as it appears you're about as good with science as I am with money?

Regardless, @Dwayne Hoover, please take him up on his offer. I know gambling on penny stocks is fun, but the board needs a Christmas miracle.

 
Doug B said:
It seems we really shouldn't be waiting too much longer on a multivalent COVID vaccine. Original formula (which more or less covers Delta) + an Omicron vaccine.

...

Just as an aside -- I wonder how, microbiologically, Omicron outcompetes Delta. Delta thrives on replication speed compared to earlier versions -- is Omicron faster yet? Or is it simply more evasive from the human immune system in general (previous COVID antibodies or not)?
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Yeah, flexibility was/is one of the big selling points of mRNA vax. But they didn't release one for delta, so I'm not holding my breath.

I'm sure there's a ceiling on contagion for aerosolized pathogens, but I doubt SARS-CoV-2 has achieved it. Measles is always mentioned among the most contagious virus, and its R0 is 12-15. No idea mechanistically why that is the case.

 
I also posted this link before. It may or may not be instructive regarding SARS-CoV-2, but it’s interesting as starting point for duration of natural immunity (with implications for frequency of boosters).

Background

We investigated frequency of reinfection with seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs) and serum antibody response following infection over 8 years in the Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) cohort.

Methods

Households were followed annually for identification of acute respiratory illness with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction–confirmed HCoV infection. Serum collected before and at 2 time points postinfection were tested using a multiplex binding assay to quantify antibody to seasonal, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike proteins and SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomains and N protein.

Results

Of 3418 participants, 40% were followed for ≥3 years. A total of 1004 HCoV infections were documented; 303 (30%) were reinfections of any HCoV type. The number of HCoV infections ranged from 1 to 13 per individual. The mean time to reinfection with the same type was estimated at 983 days for 229E, 578 days for HKU1, 615 days for OC43, and 711 days for NL63. Binding antibody levels to seasonal HCoVs were high, with little increase postinfection, and were maintained over time. Homologous, preinfection antibody levels did not significantly correlate with odds of infection, and there was little cross-response to SARS-CoV-2 proteins.

Conclusions

Reinfection with seasonal HCoVs is frequent. Binding anti-spike protein antibodies do not correlate with protection from seasonal HCoV infection.
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Terminalxylem said:
Tetanus requires boosters every 10 years until you die. Varicella requires a booster 50 years after the primary series is completed. Same link I posted before...
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We give annual boosters to our pets (and many farm animals).  Rabies, Distemper, Feline Leukemia, etc. 

I wonder how many people who are complaining about the likely frequency of COVID-19 shots have brought Fluffy or Fido in for their annual shots in the last few months.  

 
jobarules said:
FYI Im an actuary and get a lot of data. There is definitely a STRONG correlation between vaxxed population vs # of covid claims. I really cant share the data we get but basically, since the summer, the highest vaxxed states basically had 5-10% lower % of covid claims than the lowest vaxxed states. HOWEVER, since September, that difference has decreased and in November there is almost no difference. Im guessing this means the vax has lost most protection hence the need for boosters.

Bottom line, its an effective vax in preventing hospitalizations/deaths but substandard in preventing spread and does not last long.
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jobarules said:
I am an actuary for an insurance company that pays out life insurance and short term disability claims. There is a DEFINITE correlation between vax% and covid case/100k at the state level. Its clear and evident in our data.
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jobarules said:
You caught me. I'm actually an accountant 
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IvanKaramazov said:
He's not really wrong though.  Without wading into the issue of whether previous infection is really exactly equivalent to a shot of Moderna, previous infection definitely isn't nothing.  The booster will still be available a few months down the road.

The fact is that right now, we don't actually know what the optimal dosage or timing of the vaccines is.  Reasonable guesswork is really what we're all operating under.
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This is why I don’t I understand why there’s not an antibody test that can say we are at a level that is sufficient.  There so many millions of people that have taken the vaccines - there’s bound to be someone who thinks they are protected but aren’t or aren’t as much as they think.  

 
worrierking said:
We give annual boosters to our pets (and many farm animals).  Rabies, Distemper, Feline Leukemia, etc. 

I wonder how many people who are complaining about the likely frequency of COVID-19 shots have brought Fluffy or Fido in for their annual shots in the last few months.  
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And they likely let their kids get a bunch of shots to attend school.

But we already knew young and middle aged adults were bad about routine healthcare. Politics just gave people an extra excuse.

 
Doug B said:
I think we can deal with an increase in breakthrough cases from Omicron so long as they generally don't lead to serious illness. Meanwhile ... shake those molecular Legos onto the floor and slap together the Omicron vaccine already :D  
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The question is how are we supposed to behave if boosted in the meantime?  

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
What about unvaccinated?  Is it milder for them?

Everyone keeps saying it, but I haven't seen any data on it yet.
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Too early to tell for sure. We are getting data back on vaccine protection because that more easily measured (neutralizing antibodies). For the unvaccinated it’s going to real life data - actual hospitalizations and deaths before we can confirm the severity. Early signs are positive.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
What about unvaccinated?  Is it milder for them?

Everyone keeps saying it, but I haven't seen any data on it yet.
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There's not much data yet, but check out Your Local Epidemiologist's post from last night

tl;dr:

It is far too early to conclude that Omicron is mild; there are a variety of factors tangled up with each other:

  1. Are we seeing mild cases because vaccines are working or because Omicron is a less severe disease? We can have a virus that leads to mild cases, but isn’t less severe.
  2. Are the majority of cases mild because South Africa has a relatively younger population than, for example, the United States? Extrapolating real-world data from one place to predict how we will do in another place is not straightforward.
  3. Is Omicron growing too quickly, so we don’t have enough data yet? This may seem counterintuitive, but in a fast-growing epidemic, the proportion of cases is actually smaller than the proportion of cases in a slower growing epidemic. I tried to show this phenomenon in the figure below. At the same point in the wave, the proportion of Delta cases (orange highlight) was far higher than the proportion of Omicron cases (green highlight). This factor alone could cause an unusually low proportion of hospitalizations at first. We have to see what happens when this denominator gets bigger and bigger.
  4. We are also mixing individual-level implications with population-level implications. Immunity may largely protect us against Omicron. But people do still end up in the hospital. Four out of 42 patients (9%) in the South Africa hospital needed intensive care. A small percentage can add up quickly when we are talking about an incredibly fast virus moving through 330,000,000 people in the United States.
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Nathan R. Jessep said:
It is far too early to conclude that Omicron is mild; there are a variety of factors tangled up with each other:

  1. Are we seeing mild cases because vaccines are working or because Omicron is a less severe disease? We can have a virus that leads to mild cases, but isn’t less severe.
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What can YLE mean by the bolded? Seems contradictory.

 
Doug B said:
What can YLE mean by the bolded? Seems contradictory.
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Yeah, kind of clunky wording there. I THINK she means we are seeing less severe in most cases thus far BECAUSE of the vaccines. But that could mislead to the thinking that Omicron itself is not less severe (particularly for vulnerable populations).  

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Steep increases and what that means (from Friendly Neighborhood Epidemiologist)

tl;dr: She doesn't have a great outlook now about Omicron + Delta here in the states due to the sharp increases seen in the last couple of weeks. She also isn't convinced on the "Omicron is less severe" angle.
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I'm not either.  If the entire population is vaxxed and/or infected you'd expect the worst outcomes to be low.  Maybe we'll catch a break, and there may even be reason to be optimistic, but right now I don't think we can say it's less severe.

 
OK, just to throw this thread into another loop (or maybe I didn't read far enough back), Omicron is interesting in that apparently while it is very contagious it isn't as severe as previous versions of Covid.

If it turns out (and read the word IF please) that this version isn't much worse than a cold BUT (and read that word too) it infers protection against all versions of covid would it not be a good thing?  Almost like the end of the pandemic?

Heck, I don't know if it is true but I believe when I was young some parents actually held chicken pox parties to get their children infected while they were young and the symptoms were mild.  Could we see the start of Omicron parties? 

Disclaimer - I have zero medical background so if someone here has qualifications to discuss this I'd love to hear if this is a possibility.

 
Jamesinaz said:
OK, just to throw this thread into another loop (or maybe I didn't read far enough back), Omicron is interesting in that apparently while it is very contagious it isn't as severe as previous versions of Covid.

If it turns out (and read the word IF please) that this version isn't much worse than a cold BUT (and read that word too) it infers protection against all versions of covid would it not be a good thing?  Almost like the end of the pandemic?

Heck, I don't know if it is true but I believe when I was young some parents actually held chicken pox parties to get their children infected while they were young and the symptoms were mild.  Could we see the start of Omicron parties? 

Disclaimer - I have zero medical background so if someone here has qualifications to discuss this I'd love to hear if this is a possibility.
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I think people are hanging onto the word ‘milder’ too much. It’s so far more mild in comparison to Delta. I don’t think there’s a strong indication that the symptoms are mild like a common cold, just not as severe as Delta which is still a very good thing.

 
Biff84 said:
I think people are hanging onto the word ‘milder’ too much. It’s so far more mild in comparison to Delta. I don’t think there’s a strong indication that the symptoms are mild like a common cold, just not as severe as Delta which is still a very good thing.
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Well, I'm going to hope.  😀  Nothing wrong with hope.  I am traveling overseas in January if nothing drastic changes.  Had vaccine and booster.  I am not that afraid of becoming ill but catching it and ending up in quarantine isn't a desired outcome.  LOL

 
Jamesinaz said:
Well, I'm going to hope.  😀  Nothing wrong with hope.  I am traveling overseas in January if nothing drastic changes.  Had vaccine and booster.  I am not that afraid of becoming ill but catching it and ending up in quarantine isn't a desired outcome.  LOL
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Right with you. The booster protection data is extremely positive and hopefully the good news keeps coming.

 
Jamesinaz said:
Heck, I don't know if it is true but I believe when I was young some parents actually held chicken pox parties to get their children infected while they were young and the symptoms were mild.  Could we see the start of Omicron parties? 
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It's putting kids in the hospital in South Africa. 

 
Jamesinaz said:
OK, just to throw this thread into another loop (or maybe I didn't read far enough back), Omicron is interesting in that apparently while it is very contagious it isn't as severe as previous versions of Covid.

If it turns out (and read the word IF please) that this version isn't much worse than a cold BUT (and read that word too) it infers protection against all versions of covid would it not be a good thing?  Almost like the end of the pandemic?

Heck, I don't know if it is true but I believe when I was young some parents actually held chicken pox parties to get their children infected while they were young and the symptoms were mild.  Could we see the start of Omicron parties? 

Disclaimer - I have zero medical background so if someone here has qualifications to discuss this I'd love to hear if this is a possibility.
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Nothing wrong with cautious optimism. The problem is, people don’t want to be cautious. Hospitals are already really full (with non-Covid patients), so our margin for error in estimating omicron’s trajectory is small.

I just posted an article up thread about immunologic cross reactivity. In other coronaviruses, it doesn’t work out so well, at least in the long term. It’s also a big stretch to think Covid will power down several levels to the severity of a cold. I guess we’ll see in the next few weeks, but please delay your omicron party at least until 2022.

 
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Terminalxylem said:
Nothing wrong with cautious optimism. The problem is, people don’t want to be cautious. Hospitals are already really full (with non-Covid patients), so our margin for error in estimating omicron’s trajectory is small.

I just posted an article up thread about immunologic cross reactivity. In other coronaviruses, it doesn’t work out so well, at least in the long term. It’s also a big stretch to think Covid will power down several levels to the severity of a cold. I guess we’ll see in the next few weeks, but please delay your omicron party at least until 2022.
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I think it only powers down to a cold in practice based on vaccination and exposure.  We need to get out of the pandemic stage here, and fully expect a flu-like shot going forward based on the seasonal covid strains that are seen globally.

 
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