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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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On 1/24/2020 at 2:43 PM, Jules Winnfield said:

Whatever China reports, you should actually multiply that by four to get a number that’s actually closer to the truth

Then multiple that 4 x 25. Then round up. And you will still probably hit the under.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

47 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

Decided to get a little extra food on our normal shopping list today and the wife was giving me poop for getting extra water, peanut butter and canned goods.

I am a type one Diabetic--a disease like this is a death sentence for someone like me. I do all the shopping and 90% of the cooking for us, so if this thing blows up, I want to make sure we have close to 3 weeks of food in the house.  I watch what goes down in my neighborhood Safeway right before a snow storm is coming (think Zombie apocalypse level hording) ---I can't imagine what the community would do if this virus got real bad. 

You're being smart.

Certain folks dismiss any level of preparedness like you're some Crazy militia extremist sticking your bunker for the zombie apocalypse.

However, the reality is that the odds are pretty good that we all have pretty decent odds of looking at some sort of pandemic or natural-disaster induced disruption of services in our lifetime. 

IMO anyone who doesn't stock at LEAST 2 weeks of food (~20-30K cal per person), and water (7-10gal per person) is asking for trouble.

Add in a means/fuel to cook/heat water without services like gas or power... (gas grill, camp stove, sterno cans, fire pit or stove)...And radio/flashlights plus sufficient batteries for a month.

Some means to filter water would be smart (especially if you have time to fill your tubs before water is lost/contaminated). 

First aid should include immodium, Advil, Tylenol, etc plus a good bit of antibacterial wash, wipes. Bleach is huge for sterilizing water, disinfecting non food items, etc.

All the supplies would fit in a small tote under your bed. Food, in a corner of your closet. Water on a shelf in the garage. Voila.

Generators and such are an awesome luxury but just that. Small solar panel for charging cell phones would be nice. Hand crank + solar emergency radios that have 2000mah batteries to charge phones are $25. 

You've spent $250-300 and one afternoon, and thus helped insure your family against some bad juju. 
 

 

oh, and don't forget the colloidal silver ;)

 

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11 minutes ago, [icon] said:

You're being smart.

Certain folks dismiss any level of preparedness like you're some Crazy militia extremist sticking your bunker for the zombie apocalypse.

However, the reality is that the odds are pretty good that we all have pretty decent odds of looking at some sort of pandemic or natural-disaster induced disruption of services in our lifetime. 

IMO anyone who doesn't stock at LEAST 2 weeks of food (~20-30K cal per person), and water (7-10gal per person) is asking for trouble.

Add in a means/fuel to cook/heat water without services like gas or power... (gas grill, camp stove, sterno cans, fire pit or stove)...And radio/flashlights plus sufficient batteries for a month.

Some means to filter water would be smart (especially if you have time to fill your tubs before water is lost/contaminated). 

First aid should include immodium, Advil, Tylenol, etc plus a good bit of antibacterial wash, wipes. Bleach is huge for sterilizing water, disinfecting non food items, etc.

All the supplies would fit in a small tote under your bed. Food, in a corner of your closet. Water on a shelf in the garage. Voila.

Generators and such are an awesome luxury but just that. Small solar panel for charging cell phones would be nice. Hand crank + solar emergency radios that have 2000mah batteries to charge phones are $25. 

You've spent $250-300 and one afternoon, and thus helped insure your family against some bad juju. 

This is by far THE dumbest question I've ever asked....how long would plastic gallons of water stay healthy?

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15 minutes ago, facook said:

This is by far THE dumbest question I've ever asked....how long would plastic gallons of water stay healthy?

Plastic Gallons are probably okay for a while (Years) but aren't the best options. They tend to break down over time.  

"Water should be stored in a UV-resistant, food-grade plastic container or in metallized bags. Traditionally, water storage barrels are blue. This color limits light exposure and biological growth (bacteria and algae) and also signifies that what is stored in the container is safe for human consumption (for example, gasoline is stored in red containers).

The safest containers to hold water in are polyethylene-based plastics, or plastics #1, #2, and #4. This type of plastic is good for long-term storage and is BPA-free."

If you're planning on long term refillable storage it would be smart to replace the water in storage every year or so  to be on the safe side, but they're likely fine for much longer if stored properly. 
 

 

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So far 95% of  the deaths have occured in the Hubei province. Interesting to see if that holds.

France will evacuate several hundred citizens from Wuhan and quarantine them on arrival for two weeks

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18 hours ago, Hugh Jass said:

Oh great. @Mr. Ham in a virus thread at the beginning of information gathering. #Iremember cytokinitestorm

I still have a dozen pallets of colloidal silver in my basement from his hysteria during the swine flu. 🤦🏻‍♂️

:lmao:

I admit I was thinking the same. Like a moth to a flame...

But really starting to wonder myself if this thing is going to end up spreading further.  Hope they can get it under control quickly.  

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18 hours ago, [icon] said:

Seeing a lot of people dismissing this and using it as a platform to rail against people for not being more worked up about the standard flu.

Standard Flu kills ~1 in 100,000

2019-nCoV currently kills 1 in 50 

 

where you seeing 1 in 50?

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11 hours ago, bradyfan said:

From China NHC, # of new cases on Jan-26 0 - 24hrs:


Suspected cases: +3806 new  ==>  5794 total

Confirmed cases: +769 new  ==>  2744 total

Severe cases: +137 new  ==>  461 total

Dead: +24 new  ==>  80 total

Recovered: +2 new  ==>  51 total

 

30 minutes ago, culdeus said:

where you seeing 1 in 50?

Math :) (D/CC=Mr)


Now ~1 in 35 it appears. 

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11 hours ago, bradyfan said:

From China NHC, # of new cases on Jan-26 0 - 24hrs:


Suspected cases: +3806 new  ==>  5794 total

Confirmed cases: +769 new  ==>  2744 total

Severe cases: +137 new  ==>  461 total

Dead: +24 new  ==>  80 total

Recovered: +2 new  ==>  51 total

Where did ya get this data? Been looking for a source for updated counts. Thx 

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9 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Where did ya get this data? Been looking for a source for updated counts. Thx 

This is someone on my ignore list you quoted.  Notebook says psf agitator.  I would doubt this has sourcing. 

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11 minutes ago, culdeus said:

This is someone on my ignore list you quoted.  Notebook says psf agitator.  I would doubt this has sourcing. 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health

From China's NHC. 

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3 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

I’ll be there Thursday and Saturday. Thankfully I have a respite in my usual weekly travel after that. I won’t wear a mask, but I do bring antibacterial wipes and will wipe my arm rests, tray table and all around my seats.

I'm traveling today to Mexico. 

Never considered wearing a mask, wiping down the tray, use antibacterial etc. Have subscribed to the bring it on theory of germs and and pretty much has worked for a decade of intensive travel. Rarely get sick, much less than my office bound co-workers (when I do it's a doozy).

Picked up the wipes and some goo for the hands for this trip. Have cheap masks in the garage and am debating if I bust that out.

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13 minutes ago, tkrull said:

Wouldn't it be closer to dead / confirmed+suspected?  That puts it around 1%.

No, because many of the suspected folks don't actually have the 2019-nC0V. Infection rates are calculated using confirmed cases. 

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15 hours ago, [icon] said:

Plastic Gallons are probably okay for a while (Years) but aren't the best options. They tend to break down over time.  

"Water should be stored in a UV-resistant, food-grade plastic container or in metallized bags. Traditionally, water storage barrels are blue. This color limits light exposure and biological growth (bacteria and algae) and also signifies that what is stored in the container is safe for human consumption (for example, gasoline is stored in red containers).

The safest containers to hold water in are polyethylene-based plastics, or plastics #1, #2, and #4. This type of plastic is good for long-term storage and is BPA-free."

If you're planning on long term refillable storage it would be smart to replace the water in storage every year or so  to be on the safe side, but they're likely fine for much longer if stored properly. 
 

 

If inside a house, such as a basement closet, would UV resistance even be an issue?

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5 minutes ago, matttyl said:

If inside a house, such as a basement closet, would UV resistance even be an issue?

If it's in total darkness the vast majority of time, no. Algae doesn't need a ton of light to grow, though.  I'm no scientist, but IMO the only clear containers I would use would be factory sealed ones. Otherwise I would likely increase the cycling rate to every 6mo. That's just me though. 

Not an expert... JMHO. Just check it every couple months and if you see algae forming, dump, clean, refill. 

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11 minutes ago, [icon] said:

No, because many of the suspected folks don't actually have the 2019-nC0V. Infection rates are calculated using confirmed cases. 

That may be, but the denominator is almost certainly larger than just the confirmed cases.

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1 minute ago, Scoresman said:

Apparently tomorrow a bunch of US people are being evacuated from Wuhan back home and they’re all coming into SFO, where I work.
 

It’s been real, guys. Will try and post from my deathbed. 

Dumb.  Just keep them over there pls

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25 minutes ago, tkrull said:

That may be, but the denominator is almost certainly larger than just the confirmed cases.

And the amount of people dead/infected is almost certainly larger than what's reported too. That's why we stick to the standard formula, even when things are unfolding.  If you'd like to calculate your own personal fatality rate, knock yourself out :) 

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3 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

Apparently tomorrow a bunch of US people are being evacuated from Wuhan back home and they’re all coming into SFO, where I work.
 

It’s been real, guys. Will try and post from my deathbed. 

Vacuum seal yourself IMO. #Safetyfirst. 

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56 minutes ago, tkrull said:

Wouldn't it be closer to dead / confirmed+suspected?  That puts it around 1%.

It's actually dead/infected.

So people who are asymptomatic, not going to a doctor or who've recovered at home should be included in the denominator.

If we counted dead/people admitted to the hospital for the flu the baseline # looks a lot different.

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1 hour ago, The General said:

I'm traveling today to Mexico. 

Never considered wearing a mask, wiping down the tray, use antibacterial etc. Have subscribed to the bring it on theory of germs and and pretty much has worked for a decade of intensive travel. Rarely get sick, much less than my office bound co-workers (when I do it's a doozy).

Picked up the wipes and some goo for the hands for this trip. Have cheap masks in the garage and am debating if I bust that out.

Hey, I’m at SeaTac right now!  (My trip to Denver doesn’t sound as good as yours to Mexico.). Haven’t seen a single person in a mask.  

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1 minute ago, krista4 said:

Hey, I’m at SeaTac right now!  (My trip to Denver doesn’t sound as good as yours to Mexico.). Haven’t seen a single person in a mask.  

I'm on a redeye tonight or I'd meet you for a coffee, Krista.

Thanks for the update. I'm prolly going to stick one in my bag on the small chance things get a little nutty while I'm gone.

Safe travels! 

 

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10 minutes ago, The General said:

I'm on a redeye tonight or I'd meet you for a coffee, Krista.

Thanks for the update. I'm prolly going to stick one in my bag on the small chance things get a little nutty while I'm gone.

Safe travels! 

 

Taking one along sounds like a good idea.  Wish our paths had crossed!  Have a great trip.

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First confirmed death in Beijing. 

Jan 8th - Travelled to Wuhan
Week Later (Jan 15th?) : Had fever back in Beijing
Jan 21st - Sought Medical Attention
Jan 22nd - Confirmed 2019-nCoV
Jan 27th - Died of respiratory failure

So from ~Jan 9th until Jan 21st he was roaming around Beijing transmitting the virus unknowingly. :unsure: 

The contagious incubation period of this virus is going to be the kicker... there are likely many of tens of thousands of folks walking around with the disease transmitting it unknowingly right now. 

Good times ahead! :popcorn: 
 

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John's Hopkins Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. The virus in their simulation killed 65 million people.

"Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die."

:popcorn:



 

 

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42 minutes ago, [icon] said:

First confirmed death in Beijing. 

Jan 8th - Travelled to Wuhan
Week Later (Jan 15th?) : Had fever back in Beijing
Jan 21st - Sought Medical Attention
Jan 22nd - Confirmed 2019-nCoV
Jan 27th - Died of respiratory failure

So from ~Jan 9th until Jan 21st he was roaming around Beijing transmitting the virus unknowingly. :unsure: 

The contagious incubation period of this virus is going to be the kicker... there are likely many of tens of thousands of folks walking around with the disease transmitting it unknowingly right now. 

Good times ahead! :popcorn: 
 

What's really scary is Chinese New Year is this week.  Last week was basically the equivalent to the week before Christmas here - huge travel times.  Busy airports, train stations, etc.  This is the time when Chinese really travel - a lot.  If this thing is really that contagious, the rest of the country needs to be on high alert.

Worst possible time for an outbreak in some of he most densely populated, high traffic areas in the world.

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11 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Should give us all pause that Chinese government thinks it’s necessary to quarantine Wuhan, and 5 million travelled out for holidays prior.

We've lived through lots of "pandemics" that amounted to not a whole lot -- SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. -- and I'm not one to get too excited over this kind of story.  But I do have to admit that China's decision to quarantine a region of 35 million people is like something out of a horror movie and has me paying more attention.

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1 minute ago, [icon] said:

 

John's Hopkins Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. The virus in their simulation killed 65 million people.

"Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die."

:popcorn:



 

 

You forgot to mention that the pathogen they hypothesized was a lot more deadly than what we currently see from Ncov-2019 (also, that study was quoted on the first page of this thread)

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5 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

We've lived through lots of "pandemics" that amounted to not a whole lot -- SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. -- and I'm not one to get too excited over this kind of story.  But I do have to admit that China's decision to quarantine a region of 35 million people is like something out of a horror movie and has me paying more attention.

Perspective is hard to gain in these situations, I mean is that really alot for China, don't they have a Billion+ alone?  That's like us shutting down Omaha or something.  

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7 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Perspective is hard to gain in these situations, I mean is that really alot for China, don't they have a Billion+ alone?  That's like us shutting down Omaha or something.  

Sure, but it would be a BFD if the CDC literally shut down traffic into and out of Omaha.

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40 minutes ago, msommer said:

You forgot to mention that the pathogen they hypothesized was a lot more deadly than what we currently see from Ncov-2019 (also, that study was quoted on the first page of this thread)

Icon has been nothing but disinformation and hysteria in here. Just skipping right over his posts now to real info. 

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

Icon has been nothing but disinformation and hysteria in here. Just skipping right over his posts now to real info. 

Preppers need reasons to prep, so there is that

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1 minute ago, Mr. Ham said:

NYC density is quaint. I haven’t been to China, but I’ve been to Tokyo and Bangkok, and there are places and times in Asia when you are in such density you’re touching everyone around you.

So when I go to hell, it will be Tokyo, apparently.

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A guy who I know very well lived in China for over 5 years.  He lives here now, and we were talking about this yesterday.

He lived far from Wuhan and said the people he knows are all fine.

But he said one thing that, while we all know it, really makes you think.  He said that you literally cannot believe a single word that comes from the government.  

The funny thing is that all the people who are trying to calculate death rates and figure out how contagious this thing is, are doing so on the back of Chinese stats, all of which are likely false.

 

 

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