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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

I've been trash talking for a month now.   :)

But seriously, as long as we aren't bashing other states too hard, I love the idea.  New York and New Jersey better pick up their games, or Connecticut is gonna add them to the quarantine list.
That’s the spirit. We’re better at beating this thing. Whatcha got. 

 
Although the national and state figures bear watching, it's hard to mentally use that data to inform local situations. The constant focus on the negative really messes with the mind and isn't helpful in trying to make the best decisions for my family and how navigate life during this time. I live in DuPage county IL, a collar county of Chicago. One of the "hard hit" counties on the IL maps. We still have a large orange dot on the state of IL dashboard map, meaning we are one of the worse off. But when I go to the Dupage County dashboard it really paints a different picture. Out of our counties population of 922,921, there have been 9,209 confirmed cases this year (.9%) and 470 deaths (.05%). As of today, our counties 7 day rolling average for hospital admissions is .1 a day. None of that takes away from how infectious it is, or what is happening nationwide, but it was eye opening and really helps informing decisions like feeling better about having kids go to school in the fall.
Your numbers look pretty good.  The only state in the 900K range is Delaware.  They have 2700+ more cases and 42 more deaths.

 
I’ll say it again: we need good data before willy-nilly prescribing a potentially cardiotoxic med for an infection that frequently involves the heart.
The controversy surrounding it was based off a couple of sound bites. It was being prescribed and over prescribed by doctors before then, and it has been used around the world. I still don’t know if it works or not, but with better news coming out now, it’s clear this controversy was overblown. 

 
The controversy surrounding it was based off a couple of sound bites. It was being prescribed and over prescribed by doctors before then, and it has been used around the world. I still don’t know if it works or not, but with better news coming out now, it’s clear this controversy was overblown. 
Incorrect. In the medical community, the controversy was based on using a drug with unclear benefit and potential for harm without appropriately designed clinical trials. While it was/is used desperately as a therapeutic Hail Mary, we still don’t have definitive data to support its use.

Like many other “issues” in the pandemic, politicization of science will likely cause more harm than good.

 
I've been trash talking for a month now.   :)

But seriously, as long as we aren't bashing other states too hard, I love the idea.  New York and New Jersey better pick up their games, or Connecticut is gonna add them to the quarantine list.
Hopefully, we continue to quarantine all you continentals. Even CT doesn’t make the cut, nor should it.

 
Went to Costco today where masks are required, and then I went to my local Kroger to fill in the grocery gaps and the the crowd was somewhere between 80-90% mask-free. Not going back.

 
Hopefully, we continue to quarantine all you continentals. Even CT doesn’t make the cut, nor should it.
Oh, it's game on now!

CT is 75% as big as HI, but HI has only 39% of the population - and you thought you guys were packed like sardines  :sleep:

CT has tested 13.96% of it citizens, HI lags far behind at 6.94% - wanna borrow some q-tips?  ;)

CT's positivity yesterday was 0.68%, while HI nearly doubled that at 1.20% - it's like HI has become a hotspot  :lmao:

You're up!

 
Oh, it's game on now!

CT is 75% as big as HI, but HI has only 39% of the population - and you thought you guys were packed like sardines  :sleep:

CT has tested 13.96% of it citizens, HI lags far behind at 6.94% - wanna borrow some q-tips?  ;)

CT's positivity yesterday was 0.68%, while HI nearly doubled that at 1.20% - it's like HI has become a hotspot  :lmao:

You're up!
Remember that like 97% of Hawaii is covered with beaches, volcanoes or lava flows though. I would wager that their population density on habitable land is much higher. 

 
Remember that like 97% of Hawaii is covered with beaches, volcanoes or lava flows though. I would wager that their population density on habitable land is much higher. 
I was just typing my reply, to remind Winz about island geography. Oahu has the highest population of the islands by far, with a density of 1631 people per square km (CT is 285). But that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the habitable land is really limited to coastal areas as you mention.

And there is a ton of multigenerational housing which doesn’t exist on the mainland, both for financial and cultural reasons.

 
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Oh, it's game on now!

CT is 75% as big as HI, but HI has only 39% of the population - and you thought you guys were packed like sardines  :sleep:

CT has tested 13.96% of it citizens, HI lags far behind at 6.94% - wanna borrow some q-tips?  ;)

CT's positivity yesterday was 0.68%, while HI nearly doubled that at 1.20% - it's like HI has become a hotspot  :lmao:

You're up!
See my other post regarding population density. While I’d love to do more testing, we’ve had low positivity throughout the pandemic. Even if we doubled our tests, there’s no way we’d approach your cases and deaths per 100,000 population. And I’m willing to bet that difference remains a year or so from now when we finally get a vaccine.

 
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Happy 4th everyone!  Heading to a coworkers house for a cookout today.  Should be about 12 people, burgers and brews, outside the entire time.  Wife and I will show up wearing masks as a courtesy, but I am 100% sure everyone will take them off within 30 seconds of arriving.  These are 5 of my closest coworkers, and we spend so much time together, I almost feel we are all in each others circle of trust.

 
Had about a dozen acquaintances that went on vacation to Clearwater (dont ask me why). All but 1 tested positive after coming back. All wore masks. The one negative was asked to come back to work the following day.
This makes me wonder what all the scientologists think about the virus.... guess that views it as clearing the planet?  :mellow:

 
Happy 4th everyone!  Heading to a coworkers house for a cookout today.  Should be about 12 people, burgers and brews, outside the entire time.  Wife and I will show up wearing masks as a courtesy, but I am 100% sure everyone will take them off within 30 seconds of arriving.  These are 5 of my closest coworkers, and we spend so much time together, I almost feel we are all in each others circle of trust.
Foregoing family gathering. Meeting another couple we know have been disciplined. I am making pulled pork to share. We are bringing our own sides, paper plates, sides, beers, lawn chairs. Will all be in a back yard at distance. My god Americans are so soft. 

 
This can be solved for. The idea is to fight for a common goal, have some good old American competition along the way, figure out a way to incentivize everyone for winning. You know this virus is a piece of #### and it wouldn’t hurt to have common goals and common integration to make this thing more manageable across the nation. Just a thought.
The idea is fine. Unfortunately it would require the American people to execute it. We are the issue, not you idea.

 
The idea is fine. Unfortunately it would require the American people to execute it. We are the issue, not you idea.
It would also require someone to identify, convince, cajole and unite people  into accepting this common goal. How else does this common goal actually become "common". On my more optimistic days, I think folks can actually see it, care about others, even those they don't know and are willing to work towards a common good. Recently I haven't had many optimistic days. 

 
Can we please drop the state bashing everyone? That gets us literally ####### nowhere. 
 

Seriously, we need to lean on each other to get through this. If I want to read petty arguments I’ll go on Twitter or Facebook. 
Yeah, we just need to learn from other states if they seem to be doing well, and even then, we don't know that they'll keep doing well.  Spiking the football has turned out to be silly at nearly every turn. We can all pretend to have the answers everywhere else in life, but this time it's particularly foolish. 

This is all tinged with politics, but eagerness to get back to life and not having all the answers is not tied to a political party. 

We root for everyone right now, but I would think every American has their eyes on NY/NJ right now as they try to re-open. After as well as they've done, if they have a set-back that would absolutely demoralizing. 

And they very well might. Nobody knows. And if they do, it won't be because of what party their Governor is in. It'll be because people are people, and dealing this damn thing is hard. 

 
And they very well might. Nobody knows. And if they do, it won't be because of what party their Governor is in. It'll be because people are people, and dealing this damn thing is hard. 
It didn't have to be. People refusing to do the right thing put us in this position where it is now ten times harder than it needed to be. America is self-centered, arrogant and soft. And we are paying the price for all of that now.

 
A big issue in Florida is tourism. That’s what the state is built on.  It’s quite possible there is a huge disconnect in how tourists handle the virus and how locals handle it.

Even yesterday a Florida tourist in this thread remarked that there were few masks, while a Tampa local (likely in a different part of town) said he saw heavy mask usage.

Tourists not following the rules is a big part of this. 

That’s probably obvious, but since we are all dunking on states, it’s important to point that out. 

 
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A big issue in Florida is tourism. That’s what the state is built on.  It’s quite possible there is a huge disconnect in how tourists handle the virus and how locals handle it.

Even yesterday a Florida tourist in this thread remarked that there were few masks, while a Tampa local (likely in a different part of town) said he saw heavy mask usage.

Tourists not following the rules is a big part of this. 

That’s probably obvious, but since we are all dunking on states, it’s important to point that out. 
My boss went to Clearwater this week.  Not to excited about him being back in the office on Monday.

 
Any Rhode Islanders wanna chime in on the hospital situation?  One site has them as the worst state for ICU's and beds, but the numbers on other sites doesn't seem to reflect this.  Heck, the same site that has them at near capacity shows them as having cut their hospitalizations in half over the last 14 days.  It just doesn't make sense.  RI's own COVID website has them:

Current hospitalizations - 61
Current ICU's - 9
Current ICU & ventilator - 7

Are these numbers really crippling a state?

 
A big issue in Florida is tourism. That’s what the state is built on.  It’s quite possible there is a huge disconnect in how tourists handle the virus and how locals handle it.

Even yesterday a Florida tourist in this thread remarked that there were few masks, while a Tampa local (likely in a different part of town) said he saw heavy mask usage.

Tourists not following the rules is a big part of this. 

That’s probably obvious, but since we are all dunking on states, it’s important to point that out. 
In the last two months, central florida has had 99% and 97% losses in tourist dollars/taxes from the same months last year.  I am confident the people here, getting sick, are primarily people who live here.  

 
Florida reported 190,052 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday

That can't possibly be right.
Florida marks coronavirus case record as July Fourth weekend approaches

Excerpt:

(CNN)Florida will enter July Fourth weekend after marking yet another record for new coronavirus cases, a staggering 10,109 new infections that bring the state's case total to 169,106. 

The Sunshine State joined Arizona, California, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas in reporting a record number of new cases Wednesday, with the nation setting another record for new cases at 50,203. At least 23 states have paused reopening plans in the midst of the surge in infections. 

Health officials urged caution as Americans embark on holiday weekend festivities but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has said the state will not revert to stricter measuresto curb the outbreak. 

Florida has reported 3,617 deaths during the pandemic. Florida's gradual reopening started on May 4.

 
Happy 4th everyone!  Heading to a coworkers house for a cookout today.  Should be about 12 people, burgers and brews, outside the entire time.  Wife and I will show up wearing masks as a courtesy, but I am 100% sure everyone will take them off within 30 seconds of arriving.  These are 5 of my closest coworkers, and we spend so much time together, I almost feel we are all in each others circle of trust.
I like my coworkers, but I don't want to see them or talk to them on the weekend.

 
West Virginia seems interesting
The eastern panhandle (closest to DC) is driving the state totals, however the governor refuses to act in a regional manner and instead factor in the entire state’s numbers in total to drive decisions. 3,000 positives with a population of 1.8 million sounds way better than 2500 positives in a population of 200,000.

 
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Any Rhode Islanders wanna chime in on the hospital situation?  One site has them as the worst state for ICU's and beds, but the numbers on other sites doesn't seem to reflect this.  Heck, the same site that has them at near capacity shows them as having cut their hospitalizations in half over the last 14 days.  It just doesn't make sense.  RI's own COVID website has them:

Current hospitalizations - 61
Current ICU's - 9
Current ICU & ventilator - 7

Are these numbers really crippling a state?
Small state so likely low bed totals but those numbers aren't crippling by any stretch. Lifespan owns RIH (biggest in the state, located in downtown Providence), Miriam Hospital (also in PVD), and Newport Hospital. Their website lists 16 ICU beds at Miriam, 8 in Newport, and doesn't specify the number for RIH which is more than twice the size of Miriam & Newport combined. I'd wager those bed totals were pre-ramp-up and have been expanded but I'm not sure if/when that site was last updated so that's just my guess. That doesn't include capacity for other hospitals not in their network, and there are quite a few more. Kent Hospital and OLF each have a larger "staffed bed" total than Miriam according to this chart on the AHD site. 

 RI updates have been very positive day after day for the last few weeks now. 1 death yesterday and only 59 new cases. The vast majority of deaths throughout the pandemic were nursing homes. I'm pretty sure we are better than CT in almost every way, including COVID related things. 😛

 
Regarding the HCQ study, before we start the mud-slinging, it’s probably best to give it a few days to let the experts weigh in.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext
 

It’s already been pointed out (in a table in the linked study) that the median age of those treated with HCQ was 54.  The median age of those that didn’t get treated was 71.

Thats a massive difference and by itself could easily account for the mortality differences in the two groups.
I looked back at the study. Something is wrong with the table comparing demographics versus treatment. You're correct that the median age is 54 vs. 71 for HCQ alone vs. no treatment. But the interquartile range is mathematically impossible for the HCQ group, as it lists the 25th percentile as greater than both the mean and median. So there's a typo somewhere. But the breakdown of age < 65 is skewed younger for HCQ (51 vs. 38% for no treatment), so the group receiving meds is indeed younger on average. I also don't understand the p < 0.001 in the age breakdown column; generally you want that difference to be nonsignificant (p > .05) to show the groups are statistically similar. This problem is also seen with other listed variables which should not differ between groups. Lastly, the hospital length of stay is much lower for the untreated vs. HCQ groups (median 4 vs. 6 days), which doesn't make a lot of sense unless the former were dying off early in hospitalization (possible, but not usually how this disease works) - I see the the HQ group has more ICU and ventilator days, so maybe the older patients not receiving HCQ were quickly transitioned to comfort care, while full court press was attempted for the younger peeps on HCQ? In theory, the propensity score matched patients should have taken care of most of these confounders, but there sure seems like a lot of inconsistencies in the data they've provided.

The journal isn't especially well respected, with an impact factor of 3.2 (higher is better). Compare that to the New England Journal of Medicine 74.6, JAMA 51.3, Nature 43 and Lancet Infectious Disease 24.4, some of the other journals referenced in this thread.

Anyway, for all these reasons, I'm extremely skeptical of the study's conclusions. The age difference alone could account for the mortality differences they're seeing, along with non-HCQ treatment differences between groups (steroids, ICU care).

 
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A big issue in Florida is tourism. That’s what the state is built on.  It’s quite possible there is a huge disconnect in how tourists handle the virus and how locals handle it.

Even yesterday a Florida tourist in this thread remarked that there were few masks, while a Tampa local (likely in a different part of town) said he saw heavy mask usage.

Tourists not following the rules is a big part of this. 

That’s probably obvious, but since we are all dunking on states, it’s important to point that out. 
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880?s=09

A twitter thread everyone trying to make sense of the data should read. Introducing Simpson's Paradox: data pooling may lead to misinterpretation of both correlation AND causation. Basically, grouping outcomes may lead to contradictory conclusions based upon the groups.

Excellent explanatory video in the linked thread: https://youtu.be/ebEkn-BiW5k

I would especially pay attention to the Wisconsin and Texas education example.

 
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880?s=09

A twitter thread everyone trying to make sense of the data should read. Introducing Simpson's Paradox: data pooling may lead to misinterpretation of both correlation AND causation. Basically, grouping outcomes may lead to contradictory conclusions based upon the groups.

Excellent explanatory video in the linked thread: https://youtu.be/ebEkn-BiW5k

I would especially pay attention to the Wisconsin and Texas education example.
As sad as it is to read that, thanks for sharing. Anyone who has watched this over the last few months knows an increase in deaths is obviously coming. I hate that it some states are going to wait until the rapid death increase arrives to do anything.

I was reading on reddit earlier today and someone from New Jersey was trying to tell the Florida folks what was coming, essentially saying that it would be rough, but that they’d get through it.

While yes, they will get through it, it’s important to remember the major difference in states NOW, and states 3 months ago.

As an example, when New Jersey received their stay at home lockdown order on March 21st, they only had 18 deaths.

New Jersey’s PEAK in deaths came 5 weeks later at the end of April.

As that  thread stated,We are ALREADY seeing deaths rise In affected areas and there are still no lockdowns. It’s going to be brutal.

 
shader said:
A big issue in Florida is tourism. That’s what the state is built on.  It’s quite possible there is a huge disconnect in how tourists handle the virus and how locals handle it.

Even yesterday a Florida tourist in this thread remarked that there were few masks, while a Tampa local (likely in a different part of town) said he saw heavy mask usage.

Tourists not following the rules is a big part of this. 

That’s probably obvious, but since we are all dunking on states, it’s important to point that out. 
They track cases by non residents.  It's not a substantial number where I followed it (South Walton Beach).  

The non residents hospital numbers for the whole state was like a half dozen last I looked also.  

The bigger aspect could be people coming to Florida and returning home with the virus and a sunburn.   Same thing is likely in Colorado.  Got tons of people in my circle in Colorado and Florida now.   No ####s given whatsoever.  

 

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