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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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1 hour ago, shader said:

But the bottom line is, what are the risks of outside transfer?  Of course they aren't zero, but if they are so low that they won't move the R0 significantly, then we can rethink a whole host of things.

Has any localized COVID outbreak or superspreader event -- anywhere in the world -- been conclusively traced back to any outdoor activity?

I was wondering about the annual Hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia set to begin on July 28th ... but travel restrictions have led to a de facto cancellation for this year.

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42 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Has any localized COVID outbreak or superspreader event -- anywhere in the world -- been conclusively traced back to any outdoor activity?

I was wondering about the annual Hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia set to begin on July 28th ... but travel restrictions have led to a de facto cancellation for this year.

I think a soccer match in Italy was one of their initial super-spreading events.  But cold weather + people jam packed together screaming for hours does seem like a bad combo for spreading, not a typical outdoor event.

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5 hours ago, Doug B said:

So far as I know, pretty much all March-April "lockdowns" all over the U.S. were similar. I don't know of anywhere that truly restricted personal movement.

I think that early outbreak in Westchester County NY (somewhere like that) employed some restrictions on personal movement.

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6 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:
5 hours ago, Doug B said:

So far as I know, pretty much all March-April "lockdowns" all over the U.S. were similar. I don't know of anywhere that truly restricted personal movement.

I think that early outbreak in Westchester County NY (somewhere like that) employed some restrictions on personal movement.

I don't think so, if you're talking about New Rochelle.  CNN article

Quote

The containment area did not limit people's movement and was more focused on gatherings and schools within the zone. 

 

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40 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I don't think so, if you're talking about New Rochelle.  CNN article

 

Yes, it was the first "lockdown" zone, and the concept was new and unnerving, but they didn't "lock it down" along the lines of what China does.

It was also wishful thinking in retrospect, it would have been nice if just shutting down a few blocks in New Rochelle would have prevented the spread.

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7 hours ago, gianmarco said:

As I was driving back home this morning, I was thinking of our inability as a country to do the right thing as a whole and wear masks for the sake of others because it benefits society.  I'm thinking this as someone is driving aimlessly in the left lane without regard to others and making people go around on the right.

Just seemed like an obvious parallel.  Go to Europe, for example, and everyone drives on the right unless passing.  It's just what everyone does, it works, and it's considerate.  It works because everyone understands and follows along.  Here, however, it's futile.  So many just don't care and will cruise along in the left lane because it benefits them and being considerate of others doesn't really matter.  And it only takes 1 person to affect a whole bunch of people on the road.

Just like masks.

Gotta be honest...if I'm going ten over the limit and in your way, I'm not merging into slower traffic so you can drive EVEN FASTER.

Many of those places in Europe dont have speed limits too

 

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3 minutes ago, renesauz said:

Gotta be honest...if I'm going ten over the limit and in your way, I'm not merging into slower traffic so you can drive EVEN FASTER.

Many of those places in Europe dont have speed limits too

 

You shouldn't have a license.   

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3 minutes ago, renesauz said:

Gotta be honest...if I'm going ten over the limit and in your way, I'm not merging into slower traffic so you can drive EVEN FASTER.

Many of those places in Europe dont have speed limits too

 

If you are passing a car or cars, you're fine. When there's an opening and you are no longer passing cars, you should be moving over. You can move back into the left when you're ready to pass the next car. It's pretty simple.

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3 hours ago, bcat01 said:

Im good with his belief here as long as he's consistent with it, and stays the heck away from me and mine. Does he have a durable DNR order? Will he take mama off the ventilator as soon as doctors suggest there's no real hope, or will he keep her on it another week praying for God's miracle?

Edited by renesauz
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17 minutes ago, -fish- said:

You shouldn't have a license.   

read what I wrote again. I'll move over...but I'm not SLOWING DOWN to move over. IE: If the folks in the right lane are going 60 and I'm going 70...YOU'RE the one being rude if your angry with me for not slowing down to 60 (in a 55 zone!) just so you can speed back up to 80 and drive up the next car's backside

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5 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Although their position demands it, I’m inherently skeptical on bed/resource reports from public officials and hospital admin. Too much incentive to paint a rosy picture, or simply disconnected from reality.
 

Frontline workers always have a better appraisal of how dire (or not) the situation is.

If there is one thing the San Antonio mayor is NOT doing, it is painting a rosy picture. He and Judge Wolff have been by far the leaders in criticizing Abbott and has constant meddling in the affairs of the city. They hold a daily COVID brief and brief the numbers, the trends, the key indicators, and constantly PLEAD with the idiots to start doing the right thing. Until Abbott relents power to those that need to be in control of their own municipalities,  Texas will continue to struggle.

I fondly look back and remember telling my wife how proud I was of SA as we NEVER had a day with over 50 positive cases. We were doing things right. Then Governor McMoron threw caution to the wind and just opened everything. Now we routinely have days 16x-20x that number.

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7 minutes ago, renesauz said:

read what I wrote again. I'll move over...but I'm not SLOWING DOWN to move over. IE: If the folks in the right lane are going 60 and I'm going 70...YOU'RE the one being rude if your angry with me for not slowing down to 60 (in a 55 zone!) just so you can speed back up to 80 and drive up the next car's backside

yeah, I read what you wrote.   If you're going slower than the car behind you and you don't move over, you shouldn't be allowed to drive.   

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3 hours ago, Biff84 said:

Gov Ducey (AZ) is having a press conference at 3pm AZ time, should be interesting. Speculation is that it will be further business closures or a new stay at home orders.

Short update because this is in the FFA thread:

-AZ is doing good, curve is flattening

-Indoor dining down to 50% (didn’t realize it was ever higher)

-2 new drive-thru CDC testing sites to do up to 5000 per day for 12 day surge starting next week

-Partnerships to increase testing capacity to 35k by end of July and 60k by the end of August

Tweet from Senator Sinema confirmed that the restaurant restrictions were already in place. So other than more testing, nothing new to stop the spread other than begging people to stay home and watch Netflix.

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10 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Short update because this is in the FFA thread:

-AZ is doing good, curve is flattening

-Indoor dining down to 50% (didn’t realize it was ever higher)

-2 new drive-thru CDC testing sites to do up to 5000 per day for 12 day surge starting next week

-Partnerships to increase testing capacity to 35k by end of July and 60k by the end of August

Tweet from Senator Sinema confirmed that the restaurant restrictions were already in place. So other than more testing, nothing new to stop the spread other than begging people to stay home and watch Netflix.

Wait, “AZ is doing good, curve is flattening”? Is that true?

Nothing new to stop the spread? Is there a statewide mask order? No to bars, retail, restaurants, malls, gyms, theaters, bowling alleys? Are all the lakes and rivers closed? Sedona and the Grand Canyon? The rim lakes? Lake Havasu? It seems like if all those are closed, then there’s nothing else to do. But hearing how fast everything opened there after only 45 days or so, it seems like they could still do more, but I don’t know that for sure.

The school superintendent said the threats to “Open or else” weren’t welcome. That was smart.

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57 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Short update because this is in the FFA thread:

-AZ is doing good, curve is flattening

-Indoor dining down to 50% (didn’t realize it was ever higher)

-2 new drive-thru CDC testing sites to do up to 5000 per day for 12 day surge starting next week

-Partnerships to increase testing capacity to 35k by end of July and 60k by the end of August

Tweet from Senator Sinema confirmed that the restaurant restrictions were already in place. So other than more testing, nothing new to stop the spread other than begging people to stay home and watch Netflix.

I haven’t been watching AZ, would you agree with the governor that the curve is flattening?

Yesterday Florida tried to say that their curve is flattening too, which is 100% false, based on the data we have. 
 

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10 minutes ago, shader said:

I haven’t been watching AZ, would you agree with the governor that the curve is flattening?

Yesterday Florida tried to say that their curve is flattening too, which is 100% false, based on the data we have. 
 

Absolutely not. He used the Rt declining as his main statistic for his reasoning. He also pointed out that cases spiked 14 days after the end of the stay at home order and we’re 10 days out from the closing of bars, so they are expecting more decreases. I didn’t see the whole thing but that seemed to be his whole argument. The only flattening that’s happening is the number of daily test results reported.

My complete assessment isn’t appropriate for this forum.

 

 

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1 hour ago, shader said:

I haven’t been watching AZ, would you agree with the governor that the curve is flattening?

Yesterday Florida tried to say that their curve is flattening too, which is 100% false, based on the data we have. 
 

Arizona is a #### show. 

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21 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

Just shy of 62,000 new cases in the US today!?!  What an embarrassment ...what a failure.  Fall routines (esp. schools) could be FUBAR, which means our economy could be dragged down further. So sad.  So frustrating.

61k more today.  Almost 1k deaths.  Our leadership has failed us.

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1 hour ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Wait, “AZ is doing good, curve is flattening”? Is that true?

Nothing new to stop the spread? Is there a statewide mask order? No to bars, retail, restaurants, malls, gyms, theaters, bowling alleys? Are all the lakes and rivers closed? Sedona and the Grand Canyon? The rim lakes? Lake Havasu? It seems like if all those are closed, then there’s nothing else to do. But hearing how fast everything opened there after only 45 days or so, it seems like they could still do more, but I don’t know that for sure.

The school superintendent said the threats to “Open or else” weren’t welcome. That was smart.

The main actions were allowing cities and counties to put in mask mandates (many did) and shutting down bars and gyms and a few other things. That’s the extent of action so far.

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29 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

The main actions were allowing cities and counties to put in mask mandates (many did) and shutting down bars and gyms and a few other things. That’s the extent of action so far.

Hoping for the best there for all. My Dad is in Glendale, I lived in Scottsdale for 20 years, I’m a Sun Devil. Stay safe.

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Mexico also looking bad.  Almost 12% IFR on 282k cases but they’ve only tested 700k people per Worldometer.  If accurate that’s a 40% positive test rate.  :shock:
 

ETA - I guess they are only testing folks that are very, very sick.

Edited by AAABatteries
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Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 9: 626 deaths

Last two Thursdays: (342,418,581)

 

7-day average in deaths

6/28: 278

6/29: 304

6/30: 310

7/1: 305

7/2: 316

7/3: 321

7/4: 302

7/5: 304

7/6: 317

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

7/9: 391

  

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8 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

I’m sure there’s a thread on this somewhere, but are you arguing being lazy with cart return is a noble act?
 

Do you litter to keep sanitation workers employed?

There is indeed a thread on this somewhere (though I think it was inside a pet peeves thread or something similar) and I posted that I knew some FBG or other would make such an argument - as if the worker would get laid off if the carts were all properly put away.  Oof.  

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12 minutes ago, Aerial Assault said:

There is indeed a thread on this somewhere (though I think it was inside a pet peeves thread or something similar) and I posted that I knew some FBG or other would make such an argument - as if the worker would get laid off if the carts were all properly put away.  Oof.  

Same reason why we don't pump our own gas in Oregon. Think of all the jobs that would be lost!

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2 minutes ago, CR69 said:

Same reason why we don't pump our own gas in Oregon. Think of all the jobs that would be lost!

Same reason we have one neighborhood member who never cleans up their dog's crap, just leave in your yard, your sidewalk, the street. They don't want to put the city's pooper scoopers out of work.

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On 7/6/2020 at 1:45 PM, Terminalxylem said:

I agree it’s a problematic stance. It seems like SARS-CoV-2 transmission falls somewhere on the droplet-aerosol continuum, but it isn’t exactly clear where. If they want to go all in on airborne transmission, that really implies protection from aerosol spread is optimal. Empirically we already know just about any face covering and droplet-based social distancing works pretty well, so I’ll be surprised if they suggest bigger space cushions and/or N95 masks for close encounters. 

I’m also eager to read the actual letter. Hopefully the “scientists” aren’t a bunch of bozos with unrelated PhDs, a la climate change deniers.

Curious if  you (or other's with a more critical eye than I will use) have read the article.

Not sure that link to PDF will work b/c it was a long url. If not can be opened from here: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798?searchresult=1

 

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42 minutes ago, CR69 said:

Same reason why we don't pump our own gas in Oregon. Think of all the jobs that would be lost!

There's also an insurance factor to it. We are the same here in NJ and gas stations pay less insurance but not having the public pump their own gas, that's why we are typically lower price per gallon than our surrounding neighbors

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5 minutes ago, Penguin said:

There's also an insurance factor to it. We are the same here in NJ and gas stations pay less insurance but not having the public pump their own gas, that's why we are typically lower price per gallon than our surrounding neighbors

Actually the insurance cost difference is negligible. Our gas used to be cheaper than neighboring states because we had one of the lowest gas taxes in the country. That’s changed in the last few years as they jacked up the gas tax in NJ quite a bit and now our gas is pretty much the same price as neighboring states.

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2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Hoping for the best there for all. My Dad is in Glendale, I lived in Scottsdale for 20 years, I’m a Sun Devil. Stay safe.

I am moving my daughter to ASU. Move in date is 8/14 and they are still a go.

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Discussion

This study found that in patients who had recovered from COVID-19, 87.4% reported persistence of at least 1 symptom, particularly fatigue and dyspnea. Limitations of the study include the lack of information on symptom history before acute COVID-19 illness and the lack of details on symptom severity. Furthermore, this is a single-center study with a relatively small number of patients and without a control group of patients discharged for other reasons. Patients with community-acquired pneumonia can also have persistent symptoms, suggesting that these findings may not be exclusive to COVID-19.6

Who does these studies? 🤣 

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13 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

I know dozen people who have had this and not a single one had any long term effects. I call bs

well that settles that

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4 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

61k more today.  Almost 1k deaths.  Our leadership has failed us.

Saw on the WP's live COVID updates site that Paul Alexander, a top official in the Health and Human Services Department accused the CDC of undermining the president by putting out a report about the potential risks of COVID to pregnant women.

Quote

The adviser, Paul Alexander, criticized the agency’s methods and said its warning to pregnant women “reads in a way to frighten women … as if the President and his administration can’t fix this and it is getting worse.”

Guess what? They haven't shown one shred of ability to fix this. And it IS, unquestionably and demonstrably, getting worse.

And the actual report -- real scientific data written in a clinical tone -- was the furthest thing from reading in a way that would frighten. Here is the summary:

Quote

 

What is already known about this topic?

Limited information is available about SARS-CoV-2 infection in U.S. pregnant women.

What is added by this report?

Hispanic and non-Hispanic black pregnant women appear to be disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy. Among reproductive-age women with SARS-CoV-2 infection, pregnancy was associated with hospitalization and increased risk for intensive care unit admission, and receipt of mechanical ventilation, but not with death.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Pregnant women might be at increased risk for severe COVID-19 illness. To reduce severe COVID-19–associated illness, pregnant women should be aware of their potential risk for severe COVID-19 illness. Prevention of COVID-19 should be emphasized for pregnant women and potential barriers to adherence to these measures need to be addressed.

 

Sending threatening emails to the CDC for putting out real information about COVID, just for partisan reasons, at this stage in the game, is the exact opposite of leadership. 

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