Government Response To The Coronavirus (10 Viewers)

dozer · Mar 31, 2020

msommer said:
Trump, in common with all populists and demagogues, favours simple solutions to complex problems.

This checks out.

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

moleculo said:
I have not fact-checked the below - showed up on my facebook. Seems relavant to the above conversation.

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Want to know why this is actually Trump’s fault? From Matt Kelty:

For those of you complaining about Trump being blamed for the coronavirus:

So I thought I would throw up a little history lesson for everyone on both sides of the political divide. I think it’s important that we understand the truth, especially come November when it’s time to vote. Forgive the length. But, hey we all have time on our hands to read, right?

In December 2013, an 18-month-old boy in Guinea was bitten by a bat. Then there were five more fatal cases. When Ebola spread out of the Guinea borders into neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone in July 2014, President Obama activated the Emergency Operations Center at the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta. The CDC immediately deployed CDC personnel to West Africa to coordinate a response that included vector tracing, testing, education, logistics and communication.

Altogether, the CDC, under President Obama, trained 24,655 medical workers in West Africa, educating them on how to prevent and control the disease before a single case left Africa or reached the U.S.

Working with the U.N. and the World Health Organization President Obama ordered the re-routing of travelers heading to the U.S. through certain specific airports equipped to handle mass testing.

Back home in America, more than 6,500 people were trained through mock outbreaks and practice scenarios. That was done before a single case hit America.

Three months after President Obama activated this unprecedented response, on September 30, 2014, we got our first case in the U.S. That man had traveled from West Africa to Dallas and had somehow slipped through the testing protocol. He was immediately detected and isolated. He died a week later. Two nurses who tended to him contracted Ebola and later recovered. All the protocols had worked. It was contained.

The Ebola epidemic could have easily become a pandemic. But thanks to the actions of our government under Obama, it never did. Those three cases were the ONLY cases of ebola in our country because Obama did what needed to be done three months before the first case.

Ebola is even more contagious than Covid-19. If Obama had not done these things, millions of Americans would have died awful painful deaths like something out of a horror movie (if you’ve ever seen how Ebola kills, it’s horrific).

It’s ironic that BECAUSE President Obama did these things - we forget that he did them, because the disease never reached our shores.

Now the story of Covid 19 and Trump’s response that we know about so far:

Before anyone even knew about the disease (even in China) Trump disbanded the pandemic response team that Obama had put in place. He cut funding to the CDC. And he cut our contribution to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Trump fired Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer, the person on the National Security Council in charge of stopping the spread of infectious diseases before they reach our country - a position created by the Obama administration.

When the Outbreak started in China, Trump assumed it was China’s problem and sent no research, supplies or help of any kind. We were in a trade war, why should he help them?

In January he received a briefing from our intelligence organizations that the outbreak was much worse than China was admitting and that it would definitely hit our country if something wasn’t done to prevent it. He ignored the report, not trusting our own intelligence.

When the disease spread to Europe, the World Health Organization offered a boatload of tests to the United States. Trump turned them down, saying private companies here would make the tests “better” if we needed them. But he never ordered U.S. companies to make tests and they had no profit motive to do so on their own.

According to scientists at Yale and several public university medical schools, when they asked for permission to start working on our own testing protocol and potential treatments or vaccines, they were denied by Trump’s FDA.

When Trump knew about the first case in the United States he did nothing. It was just one case and the patient was isolated. When doctors and scientists started screaming in the media that this was a mistake, Trump claimed it was a “liberal hoax” conjured up to try to make him “look bad after impeachment failed.”

The next time Trump spoke of Covid-19, we had 64 confirmed cases but Trump went before microphones and told the America public that we only had 15 cases “and pretty soon that number will be close to zero.” All while the disease was spreading. He took no action to get more tests.

What Trump did do is stop flights from China from coming here. This was too late and accomplished nothing according to scientists and doctors. By then the disease was worldwide and was already spreading exponentially in the U.S. by Americans, not Chinese people as Trump would like you to believe.

As of the moment I’m posting this, the morning of March 30, 2020, we have 164,610 CONFIRMED CASES in the U.S.

A lot of propaganda. It took three weeks for Ebola to double vs. 2-3 days for Coronavirus, so Corona is a LOT more contagious. The biggest blessing for Ebola is that it occurred in a very remote location where there was no direct air travel to population centers, and that is what made it easily isolated. With that much spin and misinformation, it is not too much digging into the other claims to declare them BS.

Politician Spock · Mar 31, 2020

Feb 24:

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock market starting to look very good to me

Feb 25:

You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.

Feb 26:

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done.

Feb 28:

It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.

Mar 9:

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on.

Mar 10:

And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.

Mar 12:

It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.

I still believe you Donald. I still believe. You are great. You are the best!!!!

Mar 17:

I've always known this is a real — this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.

Wait.... WAT!!!! That's not what you were saying.... AT ALL!!!!!

:oldunsure:

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

fatguyinalittlecoat said:
If you thought that we would have 100,000 deaths even after all the steps that people have taken to reduce the spread, then you were deliberately misleading people early on in this thread. I can go back and look but I remember numerous posts along the lines of "we only have X number of cases and X number of deaths, compared to other causes of death that's nothing, we are totally overreacting."

Corona-virus will be responsible for less than 1% of the total deaths which occur this year.

moleculo · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
A lot of propaganda. It took three weeks for Ebola to double vs. 2-3 days for Coronavirus, so Corona is a LOT more contagious. The biggest blessing for Ebola is that it occurred in a very remote location where there was no direct air travel to population centers, and that is what made it easily isolated. With that much spin and misinformation, it is not too much digging into the other claims to declare them BS.

oh. So Trump actually did send a team to China? He did have the US completely preapared weeks in advance? He made sure all hospitals were well stocked and people were trained in advance? Trump listened to any intelligence warning him that this was coming? Trump accepted tests from the WHO? interesting. Weird that the FAKE NEWS media covered all that up.

James Daulton · Mar 31, 2020

Politician Spock said:
Feb 24:

Feb 25:

Feb 26:

Feb 28:

Mar 9:

Mar 10:

Mar 12:

I still believe you Donald. I still believe. You are great. You are the best!!!!

Mar 17:

Wait.... WAT!!!! That's not what you were saying.... AT ALL!!!!!

The hold he has over his supporters is beyond reason. None will come in here and say that he downplayed it, nor will they agree that said downplaying made a bad thing worse.

Sinn Fein · Mar 31, 2020

"WHO could have seen this coming?"

Yes, Mr. President, WHO did see this coming, and you ignored the warning...

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

The Commish said:
Oh...and those of you who will incessantly compare our "results" to the "results" of other countries to prove some point. Why do you have ANY confidence in the numbers coming out of those other countries (or ours for that matter)? This is like the deflection of all deflections...perhaps the Ultimate Deflection!

What else do we have to compare. Do you want to make up some imaginary numbers to compare. The numbers we have which are reported by medical professionals are flawed, but certainly reliable to base analysis on. Nobody is lying. Are you suggesting some conspiracy. Really don't get your point besides being silly.

Sinn Fein · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
What else do we have to compare. Do you want to make up some imaginary numbers to compare. The numbers we have which are reported by medical professionals are flawed, but certainly reliable to base analysis on. Nobody is lying. Are you suggesting some conspiracy. Really don't get your point besides being silly.

Garbage in - garbage out.

Nobody says you have to compare anything - even more so when its comparing apples to oranges.

Sinn Fein · Mar 31, 2020

Brian M. Rosenthal @brianmrosenthal

Whoa: Half of the coronavirus tests processed last night in New York came back positive. (About 9,000 positives out of 18,000 tests). That is ... a high percentage. The state is now at 75,795 cases.

moleculo · Mar 31, 2020

Sinn Fein said:
Brian M. Rosenthal @brianmrosenthal

Whoa: Half of the coronavirus tests processed last night in New York came back positive. (About 9,000 positives out of 18,000 tests). That is ... a high percentage. The state is now at 75,795 cases.

that means we aren't testing enough.

jonessed · Mar 31, 2020

Sinn Fein said:
Brian M. Rosenthal @brianmrosenthal

Whoa: Half of the coronavirus tests processed last night in New York came back positive. (About 9,000 positives out of 18,000 tests). That is ... a high percentage. The state is now at 75,795 cases.

I know in CA different hospitals have different standards. Anything run through the counties takes significantly longer and requires specific symptoms and/or underlying health/age considerations. Hospital networks with their own labs can do more testing, faster.

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

Sinn Fein said:
Garbage in - garbage out.

Nobody says you have to compare anything - even more so when its comparing apples to oranges.

Again, this forum wants to ignore facts when they don't like it. I get it.

Biff84 · Mar 31, 2020

moleculo said:
that means we aren't testing enough.

Exactly. Half positive means that we’re still only testing the people who have clear cases.

cloppbeast · Mar 31, 2020

Sinn Fein said:
I did not google anything - it came across as a NYT story on my app at the same time you were complaining this has no impact on rural America.

Sorry to ruin your narrative.

It doesn't.

Amused to Death · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Again, this forum wants to ignore facts when they don't like it. I get it.

Like the way you ignored the Chris Murphy tweet after it contradicted your narrative of hindsight and Trump hate, right?

fatguyinalittlecoat · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
fatguyinalittlecoat said:

If you thought that we would have 100,000 deaths even after all the steps that people have taken to reduce the spread, then you were deliberately misleading people early on in this thread. I can go back and look but I remember numerous posts along the lines of "we only have X number of cases and X number of deaths, compared to other causes of death that's nothing, we are totally overreacting."

Click to expand...

Corona-virus will be responsible for less than 1% of the total deaths which occur this year.

Here are some of the posts I was talking about:

jon_mx said:
Yes, and it is semantics. We don't typically refer to flus as pandemics but technically they are. Usually pandemics language is reserved for things like black death or Spanish flu where large percentage of the population dies. This is in the noise and is no where near the top 10 causes of death.

jon_mx said:
Still less than 5,000 deaths.

jon_mx said:
And that is part of the problem. When you model these things with exponential growth and are slightly wrong with your date/assumptions, the overstatement of the impact can get ridiculously huge really fast. Exponential growth has been a tool of fear-mongers for centuries. Things do tend to grow exponentially until they start hitting limits or action is taken, but slight errors blow things up fast and make it a lot worse than it really is..

jon_mx said:
Not necessarily. If our economy goes in the tank, companies fold, we run into another real estate crash....blah, blah, blah, the Trump Depression. Millions of people will drop into poverty and people will go hungry, all to slow-down a problem which may inevitably run its course anyways. Is it worth it to impact the lives of 6 billion people to save 10,000 people. As cold as it may sound, the answer is no. There are better and far more cost-effective means to save far more lives.

jon_mx said:
Yes, we know 5,000 people have died. We also know 60,000,000 people are going to die this year from other causes. We can not #### can our entire economy for every reason 5,000 people have died, no matter how tragic and bleeding heart you think that sounds. We must live our lives. Should we ban cars because 40,000 people die on our highways. COME ON, PEOPLE ARE DYING!!! No, we must live our lives and take measured reasonable actions based on the danger.

jon_mx said:
I don't think you are stating or applying those numbers correctly. And no, we are not talking millions of Americans.

I think you were doing a terrible disservice to the board if at the time you wrote these posts you were under the belief that we would have over 100,000 deaths in the United States even with closing everything down. Your repeated references to 5000 deaths worldwide seems completely disingenuous. Your reference to "impacting the lives of 6 billion to save 10,000 people", which you've now dismissed as a mere hypothetical, was totally misleading. As was your comparison to 40,000 people dying on highways a year. Your dismissal of the idea that this could strike "millions of Americans" seems far too confident, because it's clear that the only reason we might not have millions of Americans die is because we're taking these harsh measures that you pushed against in the first place.

It's OK to admit you were wrong about stuff. That's a much better choice than saying you thought there would be 100,000 American deaths but still made these bad faith arguments.

The Commish · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
The Commish said:

No...the bold is answered by the underlined in YOUR very own post. I guess I was wrong with the "it would have been significantly worse had we not acted" shtick being the shtick.

Click to expand...

A Democratic President would not have convinced a nation to change their hygiene habits overnight. It took this incidence for people to take it seriously.

I never claimed otherwise. Jury's still out on whether people are paying attention or not and taking it seriously. Here in Florida, I'd say they still aren't taking it seriously. I fully expect for us to be another "hot zone" before this is over.

The Commish · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
What else do we have to compare. Do you want to make up some imaginary numbers to compare. The numbers we have which are reported by medical professionals are flawed, but certainly reliable to base analysis on. Nobody is lying. Are you suggesting some conspiracy. Really don't get your point besides being silly.

I don't have a need to compare :shrug:

to what end, I have no idea. I don't know if people are lying or not. However, I DON'T take China at their word. I'm confident stories will come out that things were/are worse there than what's being reported to the world. I think it's human nature to try and present the best possible image....you know, like people do on social media? I don't think it requires a "conspiracy" to draw that conclusion. With such desires will come a less than honest reporting scheme. Of that I am sure.

The Commish · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Again, this forum wants to ignore facts when they don't like it. I get it.

No one is ignoring anything. I simply brought up the very real possibility that we may not be getting an accurate picture from other countries. I mean, honesty isn't our best trait in the US. We can see that by what's happened with the people heading this thing up being constantly rebutted by the science. Do you really think the US is unique in that light? I don't.

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Here are some of the posts I was talking about:

I think you were doing a terrible disservice to the board if at the time you wrote these posts you were under the belief that we would have over 100,000 deaths in the United States even with closing everything down. Your repeated references to 5000 deaths worldwide seems completely disingenuous. Your reference to "impacting the lives of 6 billion to save 10,000 people", which you've now dismissed as a mere hypothetical, was totally misleading. As was your comparison to 40,000 people dying on highways a year. Your dismissal of the idea that this could strike "millions of Americans" seems far too confident, because it's clear that the only reason we might not have millions of Americans die is because we're taking these harsh measures that you pushed against in the first place.

It's OK to admit you were wrong about stuff. That's a much better choice than saying you thought there would be 100,000 American deaths but still made these bad faith arguments.

It will not be millions of Americans. 5,000 was a factual number at the time. The actions we have taken to flattening of the curve does not prevent all deaths. It may save some lives, like 10,000. I believe the flu killed 40,000 people in 2018. We did not panic or shut down everything. This is worse and especially more deadly to older people, but this is not 10 times worse than 2018. It will be about 2 to 3 times worse.

Sweet J · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
And what would we have done? You think we would have shut down before there was clear evidence that this could really be bad? The response would not have been significantly different no matter who was president.

The same day that the secretary of HHS was imploring the White House that this will be an emergency for the US and a potential disaster -- the same day -- the Secretary of State tweeted that we are sending tons of medical supplies to China to help them. The White House didn't take this seriously, even though their own HHS was sounding the alarm for weeks.

That's just one thing. There are about a dozen more we could do.

msommer · Mar 31, 2020

fatguyinalittlecoat said:
It's OK to admit you were wrong about stuff. That's a much better choice than saying you thought there would be 100,000 American deaths but still made these bad faith arguments.

Did you notice that in his reply jon did not once admit to being wrong or making bad faith posting?

The General · Mar 31, 2020

People are still doing the flu comparison stuff?

Sinn Fein · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
It will not be millions of Americans. 5,000 was a factual number at the time. The actions we have taken to flattening of the curve does not prevent all deaths. It may save some lives, like 10,000. I believe the flu killed 40,000 people in 2018. We did not panic or shut down everything. This is worse and especially more deadly to older people, but this is not 10 times worse than 2018. It will be about 2 to 3 times worse.

It will be 2-3 time worse, if we shut the country down for a month.

Imagine how much worse it would have been if everyone just went about their business like an ordinary flu season...

Amused to Death · Mar 31, 2020

msommer said:
Did you notice that in his reply jon did not once admit to being wrong or making bad faith posting?

Too busy accusing others.

msommer · Mar 31, 2020

Amused to Death said:
msommer said:

Did you notice that in his reply jon did not once admit to being wrong or making bad faith posting?

Click to expand...

Too busy accusing others.

Perhaps engagement is not the optimal strategy

fatguyinalittlecoat · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
It will not be millions of Americans.

It could be. And it definitely would have been if we hadn't taken actions like cancelling sports and schools, etc. Things that you said were an overreaction.

jon_mx said:
5,000 was a factual number at the time.

A number can be both accurate and misleading. You were arguing that this wasn't that big a deal because there were fewer than 5,000 deaths worldwide. Even though you believed that there would be over 100,000 American deaths. That is wildly misleading. 100,000 American deaths is a big number.

jon_mx said:
The actions we have taken to flattening of the curve does not prevent all deaths. It may save some lives, like 10,000. I believe the flu killed 40,000 people in 2018. We did not panic or shut down everything. This is worse and especially more deadly to older people, but this is not 10 times worse than 2018. It will be about 2 to 3 times worse.

This definitely would have been ten times worse if everyone was still going to schools and work and basketball games. The only reason we might escape with 100,000 deaths would be because we've taken the serious measures you were arguing against.

Bottomfeeder Sports · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Why do you believe this is a disaster in Europe? Are European leaders just as bad as Trump?

Did the European leaders do this? Would the response in Europe had been different if the US had someone in place to handle funneling information to us and them?
Did Europeans also gut government and leave nothing but "yes men" in key roles, not to mention ?
Did the Europeans blow this all off as a democratic hoax "out to get" Trump?
Did the Europeans leaders blow smoke up their countries' for a few days to allow those that matter to sell off their stocks?
Did the European leaders punt the responsibilities for this off to state and local governments? To corporate America?
Did they give people "hope" by saying this was to blow over in a few weeks because the felt in their gut we had a miracle cure?
But who cares right now with your latest variation of "both sides" "what aboutism" to defend.

Trump is very likely to be saved from the worst of the worst by those in the "deep state" and those ungrateful governors but having an occasional somewhat normal press conference doesn't change the fact that Trump has made this worst at every step along the way. This not being a complete disaster will be in-spite of Trump and not because of him. And that statement doesn't support Tim's belief that the there is very little the president could have done to made this so much better. This is a failure of Trump and his administration. More importantly it is a failure of conservative anti government, and anti power at the federal level government. Like most things this probably will be better than worst case scenarios because they almost always are, and we might get lucky, but this plays out differently with people who believe there is a role for government in positions to do something!

When this thing broke there was only one thing that President Trump should have done - Get the :censored:

out of the way! There were many ways he could have done that, but he didn't and we will suffer as a result!

timschochet · Mar 31, 2020

Shelter in place in California appears to be working so far:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/california-shelter-in-place-effects/index.html

msommer · Mar 31, 2020

fatguyinalittlecoat said:
This definitely would have been ten times worse if everyone was still going to schools and work and basketball games. The only reason we might escape with 100,000 deaths would be because we've taken the serious measures you were arguing against.

But that won't stop anyone you are arguing with from moving the goalposts and declaring victory, unfortunately

Sweet J · Mar 31, 2020

I don't understand Trump supporters to dig in to the narrative of "it's not that bad." Why?? Why are you making that argument? Admitting that COVID has done serious damage and could do even more serious damage doesn't have to mean you support Trump less. Is is all because Trump early on said "it won't be that bad," and now you feel like you need to be in lockstep with him? If he does now say: "this is a serious threat; an emergency that could end up very bad," would you then be ok with admitting it?

Because he has now said how bad this is. It's ok to admit it. Really.

moleculo · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
It will not be millions of Americans. 5,000 was a factual number at the time. The actions we have taken to flattening of the curve does not prevent all deaths. It may save some lives, like 10,000. I believe the flu killed 40,000 people in 2018. We did not panic or shut down everything. This is worse and especially more deadly to older people, but this is not 10 times worse than 2018. It will be about 2 to 3 times worse.

if it is 2 to 3 times worse, it will be purely becasue we shut everything down. Had we kept everything going for the sake of the economy, we would see much more than 10x. Per Trumps estimate (>2M), maybe 50x worse.

Good thing we shut down, huh?

cloppbeast · Mar 31, 2020

moleculo said:
if it is 2 to 3 times worse, it will be purely becasue we shut everything down. Had we kept everything going for the sake of the economy, we would see much more than 10x. Per Trumps estimate (>2M), maybe 50x worse.

Good thing we shut down, huh?

The 2m was an exaggeration, wouldn't have happened. But that's all behind us now and we'll never really know. All we are going to hear now is about how many lives we've saved by locking down. Those numbers are bound to be as accurate as the original 2m prediction.

Sinn Fein · Mar 31, 2020

Why federal leadership is still important:

Samantha-Jo Roth

@SamanthaJoRoth

JUST NOW— Gov. Ron DeSantis says the White House task force hasn't told him to issue a statewide stay-at-home-order: "The task force is not recommending this. If they do, that’s something that would carry a lot of weight with me."

The Commish · Mar 31, 2020

The Commish said:
Here in Florida, I'd say they still aren't taking it seriously. I fully expect for us to be another "hot zone" before this is over.

Reading up a bit on this because I wanted to go beyond my anecdotal observations. Looks like I could be eating some crow on this one. I did some looking around and while we've had a few missteps like not cancelling spring break and kicking everyone out, it looks like we might be escaping this thing depending on how SE Florida goes. If they get to that 1 in 200 tested mark, we'll have a good indicator here as to where things are going. I am happy to see that the rest of the state seems to be doing as asked. A humble reminder to not extrapolate what you see in your immediate world out beyond that...your immediate world.

tonydead · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
It will not be millions of Americans. 5,000 was a factual number at the time. The actions we have taken to flattening of the curve does not prevent all deaths. It may save some lives, like 10,000. I believe the flu killed 40,000 people in 2018. We did not panic or shut down everything. This is worse and especially more deadly to older people, but this is not 10 times worse than 2018. It will be about 2 to 3 times worse.

The model showed 1.6 to 2.2 million people dead if we did nothing. Only by social distancing does it get down to 80,000 to 160,000. We don't do social distancing really well so the experts in creased those numbers to 100,000 to 200,000.

There really isn't any reason to argue the experts as their model as the model was verified independently. Those are the numbers as we know them right now.

You can argue if shutting down was worth 1,000,000 people, because that's the current price tag.

If you want to watch them explain the number you can here, in 5 minutes.

shader · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
It will not be millions of Americans. 5,000 was a factual number at the time. The actions we have taken to flattening of the curve does not prevent all deaths. It may save some lives, like 10,000. I believe the flu killed 40,000 people in 2018. We did not panic or shut down everything. This is worse and especially more deadly to older people, but this is not 10 times worse than 2018. It will be about 2 to 3 times worse.

shader · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Again, this forum wants to ignore facts when they don't like it. I get it.

You don't post facts in here.

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

moleculo said:
if it is 2 to 3 times worse, it will be purely becasue we shut everything down. Had we kept everything going for the sake of the economy, we would see much more than 10x. Per Trumps estimate (>2M), maybe 50x worse.

Good thing we shut down, huh?

Trump is an idiot. Flattening the curve spreads out the cases, it does not neccesarily reduce the cases. This was never going to kill 2 million Americand.

The General · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Trump is an idiot. Flattening the curve spreads out the cases, it does not neccesarily reduce the cases. This was never going to kill 2 million Americand.

What happens if everyone got sick at the same time, say right now?

cloppbeast · Mar 31, 2020

tonydead said:
The model showed 1.6 to 2.2 million people dead if we did nothing. Only by social distancing does it get down to 80,000 to 160,000. We don't do social distancing really well so the experts in creased those numbers to 100,000 to 200,000.

There really isn't any reason to argue the experts as their model as the model was verified independently. Those are the numbers as we know them right now.

You can argue if shutting down was worth 1,000,000 people, because that's the current price tag.

If you want to watch them explain the number you can here, in 5 minutes.

This model was flawed though based on what we know now but didn't know then.

sho nuff · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Trump is an idiot. Flattening the curve spreads out the cases, it does not neccesarily reduce the cases. This was never going to kill 2 million Americand.

So the doctors making that prediction are wrong and you know better?

Sinn Fein · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Trump is an idiot. Flattening the curve spreads out the cases, it does not neccesarily reduce the cases. This was never going to kill 2 million Americand.

I think we have reached an understanding of the disconnect.

Flattening the curve - absolutely reduces the deaths - as the mortality rate rises significantly for every case that comes in when the healthcare system is overextended.

This is why arguing over the mortality rate of the virus is a fool's errand. Its not the mortality rate that is important - its the actual spread, and how many people are affected at the same time. The more we can spread that out - the more we can lower the actual mortality rate.

The Commish · Mar 31, 2020

Sinn Fein said:
Why federal leadership is still important:

Samantha-Jo Roth

@SamanthaJoRoth

JUST NOW— Gov. Ron DeSantis says the White House task force hasn't told him to issue a statewide stay-at-home-order: "The task force is not recommending this. If they do, that’s something that would carry a lot of weight with me."

Without completely derailing this thread, I am confident saying this is a lot of political posturing. DeSantis has done a pretty good job here best I can tell with the "suggestions" vs "mandates" and the local officials have done even better when they disagree with him. For example, he's refused to shut down the beaches, so local officials close the county parks and public parking lots to keep the numbers down. It's been an interesting dance to watch. WIth this comment, I believe he's pushing back on those who are insisting everything be shut down. I don't really question that, should the data warrant it, he'd shut things down even if the federal government said it wasn't necessary.

tonydead · Mar 31, 2020

cloppbeast said:
This model was flawed though.

Link?

shader · Mar 31, 2020

jon_mx said:
Trump is an idiot. Flattening the curve spreads out the cases, it does not neccesarily reduce the cases. This was never going to kill 2 million Americand.

2 million is the LOW end of how many this would kill if it spread to even half of the country.

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

The General said:
What happens if everyone got sick at the same time, say right now?

That is not how it works. Yes, a spike could overly stress resources and increase deaths. But that is more like a 10 percent increase no a ten-fold increase.

shader · Mar 31, 2020

BTW, when you Trump supporters come into the other thread, (the one where we are trying to post facts and keep it non-political) and start criticizing the WHO and China, and parroting Trump ideas, and you know that no one can call you out on your hypocrisy because we "can't talk politics"....we know what you're doing.

jon_mx · Mar 31, 2020

Sinn Fein said:
I think we have reached an understanding of the disconnect.

Flattening the curve - absolutely reduces the deaths - as the mortality rate rises significantly for every case that comes in when the healthcare system is overextended.

This is why arguing over the mortality rate of the virus is a fool's errand. Its not the mortality rate that is important - its the actual spread, and how many people are affected at the same time. The more we can spread that out - the more we can lower the actual mortality rate.

That is why I said cases and not deaths. It would be a factor in mortality, but not to the extent you think.

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