Was talking to a doc friend of mine this past Friday who is very much involved in response strategy from a health care standpoint. He noted about Italy that they had a huge spike in the curve that, while it overwhelmed their health care system, likely shortened the duration of the curve because so many people were exposed to the virus. Flattening the curve as we did in most areas of the U.S., he said, also likely lengthens the curve, at least until a vaccine is available. Given Italy’s history, it is very likely that a substantially greater percentage of their population has been exposed to the virus than the U.S. generally. And as those exposure percentages reach 60-70%, the risk of a second wave is dramatically reduced.
Put another way, one could argue that it’s the areas of the country that have only had moderate community spread that are more at risk of a second wave upon reopening.