JbizzleMan
Footballguy
The new expected death count is 95k per Trump. “Or something more” Definitely has this under control.
IncorrectFootball Jones said:The facts lead to opening up in many, many areas.
I'm not sure what you're not understanding about starting to open up without a second wave hitting. There's a bunch of smart people watching the numbers in areas where they're opening up. We're doing great here.
The answer can't be shut down until it goes away. That's a fail. It's not going away anytime soon. Instead, we keep working on the hardest hit areas & let the others get back to normal.
It's not like it's rocket science.
Is he predicting what it will be by next weekend? What a terrible predictionThe new expected death count is 95k per Trump. “Or something more” Definitely has this under control.
He said “ultimately.” Maybe they’ll just stop counting at 95k?Is he predicting what it will be by next weekend? What a terrible prediction
95K is the current low end of the confidence interval from the IHME model. I wonder if that's where he got that number from.He said “ultimately.” Maybe they’ll just stop counting at 95k?
Maybe he is using his cubic spline showing deaths go to 0 by next Friday.He said “ultimately.” Maybe they’ll just stop counting at 95k?Is he predicting what it will be by next weekend? What a terrible prediction
I'd say you're wrong.Incorrect
There's absolutely no way for anyone to be able to claim an area that has opened up is "holding their own" yet. Way too early for that, though I hope you're right.We're doing very well here. I also have friends & family in various areas of the country who have opened up & are holding their own.
Personally, I'm getting fed up with those who continue to preach the shut-in lifestyle for EVERYONE. It's not only wrong, it's a dangerous notion given the untold needless suffering that could result from it.
You conveniently left out that many US counties have ZERO COVID-10 deaths & quite a few have ZERO cases. In fact, an alarming number.There's absolutely no way for anyone to be able to claim an area that has opened up is "holding their own" yet. Way too early for that, though I hope you're right.
No one wants everyone to stay at home forever. Some of us are just worried that opening up while cases are still on the rise is a recipe for disaster.
He was joking lolWorkhorse said:This would be unbelievable if it weren't completely believable:
https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1258750892448387074
The current administration is one giant PR stunt in general.
All of these areas with no cases have no cases because of shelter in place, with no shelter in place the virus will eventually reach them. Maybe not as fast as a big city, but it will get there at some point.You conveniently left out that many US counties have ZERO COVID-10 deaths & quite a few have ZERO cases. In fact, an alarming number.
This sheltering-in nonsense has to stop. If you're in an area where it makes sense or are in an at-risk group, by all means, please continue to do so.
Think about what you're saying.All of these areas with no cases have no cases because of shelter in place, with no shelter in place the virus will eventually reach them. Maybe not as fast as a big city, but it will get there at some point.
Yeah....kinda like when people see a lack of new cases immediately after we open up....and go, "See, SEE!!!"If it wasn't funny, it would be funny, but I have to kinda snicker at people who see new cases as we open up & go, "See, SEE!!!."
LMAO
Football Jones said:we're opening up here & holding our own.
I addressed the bolded in my previous reply to you, which you conveniently didn't respond to.Think about what you're saying.
No cases & we still keep sheltering in? Until when?
The places who can open up, we open up. We've been open here awhile & still doing well. No crazy 2nd wave is hitting, but that doesn't mean we ignore being conscientious.
Opening up in areas where it makes sense isn't debatable & it's not negotiable.
So are they going to shelter in place forever? What date will it be ok for them to stop?All of these areas with no cases have no cases because of shelter in place, with no shelter in place the virus will eventually reach them. Maybe not as fast as a big city, but it will get there at some point.
Until it was under control, which numerous countries have already done with a proactive government and compliance, as opposed to letting States shut down or open whenever they want while encouraging nuts to go around and protest. With strict enforcement we could probably have been opening up around June or so, which will definitely not be happening now. As it is there are daily reports of people refusing to do simple things liking wearing a mask to make it safer for those around them. How can you say no crazy second wave is hitting, when it is not due until the end of May? I am not sure where you live, but population centers shutting down and not travelling are what is saving the less populated areas, if that ends it will spread to the areas where the virus is not present currently.Think about what you're saying.
No cases & we still keep sheltering in? Until when?
The places who can open up, we open up. We've been open here awhile & still doing well. No crazy 2nd wave is hitting, but that doesn't mean we ignore being conscientious.
Opening up in areas where it makes sense isn't debatable & it's not negotiable.
Huh?Yeah....kinda like when people see a lack of new cases immediately after we open up....and go, "See, SEE!!!"
Yep you nailed it, you can’t hide inside forever. Life goes on, be smart, follow the guidelines, the world won’t end.Think about what you're saying.
No cases & we still keep sheltering in? Until when?
The places who can open up, we open up. We've been open here awhile & still doing well. No crazy 2nd wave is hitting, but that doesn't mean we ignore being conscientious.
Opening up in areas where it makes sense isn't debatable & it's not negotiable.
How about till we have adequate testing and contact tracing - just like Trump outlined in his re-opening guidelines?So are they going to shelter in place forever? What date will it be ok for them to stop?
This has already been covered, even when there is enough testing to make the everyone happy you can’t force people to get tested defeating the purpose to hide inside until then. It will never work, but sounds great in a chat room that slants hard Left.How about till we have adequate testing and contact tracing - just like Trump outlined in his re-opening guidelines?
It's too early for official cases to rise for any state that has "opened up"I'd say you're wrong.
We're doing very well here. I also have friends & family in various areas of the country who have opened up & are holding their own.
Not everyone lives in an area with a lot of cases & not everyone lives in an urban setting. There are many counties who don't have ANY COVID-19 deaths & quite a few have ZERO cases.
Personally, I'm getting fed up with those who continue to preach the shelter-in lifestyle for EVERYONE. It's not only wrong, it's a dangerous notion given the untold needless suffering that could result from it.
I wonder how it sounded to the Trump administration when they put in their phase 1 guideline? Or was that slanted hard left?This has already been covered, even when there is enough testing to make the everyone happy you can’t force people to get tested defeating the purpose to hide inside until then. It will never work, but sounds great in a chat room that slants hard Left.
I can't speak for Atlanta, Nashville, etc.It's too early for official cases to rise for any state that has "opened up"
As an example, Georgia and TN "opened up" Monday the 27th.
With an incubation period of 7 days, the earliest anyone would have gotten sick and tested is likely this past Monday. 4 days ago. But the incubation period is up to 14 days, meaning everyone that got sick on Monday the 27th from "re-opening" is not yet symptomatic.
So the full extent of the spread from the 27th will not be known until next Monday.
And that's assuming that everyone that gets sick goes and gets tested the moment they first show symptoms, which is unlikely.
Then you have to factor in the fact that it still takes 2-3 days for test results to come back.
Bottom line: Any additional community spread from the reopening on Monday the 27th wouldn't be fully known for 3 weeks.
So how would you have any idea if you're doing pretty well? Or whether your friends or family are "holding their own". It's simply too early to know. This virus could be absolutely spreading like wildfire where you live, and you'd never know it.
Maybe because they're just guidelines? Hate to break it to you but the mayors and governors making the re-opening decisions don't report to President Trump.How about till we have adequate testing and contact tracing - just like Trump outlined in his re-opening guidelines?
If it's been 14 days since you've started opening up, you don't know if you're doing well yet.I can't speak for Atlanta, Nashville, etc.
Most everything was shut down here for a good 3 weeks. It's been 14+ days since we started opening back up (small town, but close to a top-50 city).
Again, we're doing well. I suspect a LOT of areas will do well, but sure, I'm all for staying vigilant.
I didn't make it anything. I was using the premise set out by another poster. You seem to be coming from a different perspective than he is. I will say I DID assume the "facts" that he was talking about were with regard to safety and spread of the virus, not this set you've illustrated here. I guess I should clarify which "facts" he is referring to.PhantomJB said:You've made it binary. It's not. Reopening is not a question of maximizing, it is one of optimizing.
Fact: There is an inverse correlation between saving lives and economic well-being. Maximizing along either of those dimensions adversely affects the other.
Executives must optimize the best outcome of minimizing lives lost with least amount of damage to economy.
That's a fact-based decision.
We get it, you are going to always find something to complain about. I’m not interested in rearguing the same things when it’s clearly time to open up in most areas and that’s what we are doing.I wonder how it sounded to the Trump administration when they put in their phase 1 guideline? Or was that slanted hard left?
Again, I'm amazed at how wanting to follow the Trump guidelines is a "left" position. Just...amazing.
LOL. What's the median incubation period? 4-5 days? There's a testing site close by with a quick turnaround.If it's been 14 days since you've started opening up, you don't know if you're doing well yet.
Can you point to a statement or instance where Trump admonished those governors? Has Trump or his administration done ANYTHING to promote its guidelines? I can point to Trump actually encouraging states to go against them. Maybe those governors and mayors take their queues from him?Maybe because they're just guidelines? Hate to break it to you but the mayors and governors making the re-opening decisions don't report to President Trump.
All good. I must have misinterpreted.I didn't make it anything. I was using the premise set out by another poster. You seem to be coming from a different perspective than he is. I will say I DID assume the "facts" that he was talking about were with regard to safety and spread of the virus, not this set you've illustrated here. I guess I should clarify which "facts" he is referring to.
Did you even read my previous post? Obviously not. Forget it.LOL. What's the median incubation period? 4-5 days? There's a testing site close by with a quick turnaround.
We're doing well. Period.
I suspect I'll have the same news next week & the week after, but I'm certainly not underestimating it.
Wanting to follow the Trump administration's guidelines is now complaining? The guidelines that were created to help with safe re-opening and try to avoid/mitigate a 2nd wave? That's complaining?We get it, you are going to always find something to complain about. I’m not interested in rearguing the same things when it’s clearly time to open up in most areas and that’s what we are doing.
ok...thanksFootball Jones said:The facts lead to opening up in many, many areas.
I'm not sure what you're not understanding about starting to open up without a second wave hitting. There's a bunch of smart people watching the numbers in areas where they're opening up. We're doing great here.
The answer can't be shut down until it goes away. That's a fail. It's not going away anytime soon. Instead, we keep working on the hardest hit areas & let the others get back to normal.
It's not like it's rocket science.
Totally agree.Wanting to follow the Trump administration's guidelines is now complaining? The guidelines that were created to help with safe re-opening and try to avoid/mitigate a 2nd wave? That's complaining?
Again, just amazing the talking points people come up with.
My closest experience is in Colorado...and here I'm quite sure the progressive democratic governor was not taking his cue directly from the President when making his decision to begin re-opening last week.Can you point to a statement or instance where Trump admonished those governors? Has Trump or his administration done ANYTHING to promote its guidelines? I can point to Trump actually encouraging states to go against them. Maybe those governors and mayors take their queues from him?
And maybe the president should actually promote his guidelines. I don't care if its GOP or Dem governors, and neither does the virus.My closest experience is in Colorado...and here I'm quite sure the progressive democratic governor was not taking his cue directly from the President when making his decision to begin re-opening last week.
Of course I read it.Did you even read my previous post? Obviously not. Forget it.
Literally nobody is stating everyone needs to stay shut in...my spidey sense sees that and knows its just not true. Can you point out where anyone here is stating everyone needs to be shut in?Football Jones said:LOL at the thought EVERYONE stays shut in. It's called an agenda. My spidey sense starts going off, LOL.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anything so stubborn in my life. I just told you we're opening up here & holding our own. You don't get to decide who suffers needlessly. If you want to stay shut in due to your risk factors &/or because your area is harder hit, I'd suggest doing that.
It's unfathomable to think what kind of suffering there would be with continued shutdown in places that could start to get back up & running. That's not going to happen.
Lots going on. My only point is I am unaware of a single state that has met the phase 1 guidelines yet. I make my comments from that POV. But it does seem like the people who made those standards are now urging states to "open" anyway. It's easy to get confused.All good. I must have misinterpreted.I didn't make it anything. I was using the premise set out by another poster. You seem to be coming from a different perspective than he is. I will say I DID assume the "facts" that he was talking about were with regard to safety and spread of the virus, not this set you've illustrated here. I guess I should clarify which "facts" he is referring to.
And yet, it has worked in other countries.This has already been covered, even when there is enough testing to make the everyone happy you can’t force people to get tested defeating the purpose to hide inside until then. It will never work, but sounds great in a chat room that slants hard Left.
He's so intimidated by women.Trump claims that Angela Merkel, among other foreign leaders he's spoken to about the pandemic, "view us as the world leader, and they're following us," even if they don't want to "admit it."
So you're saying sheltering-in isn't need in many places? I agree, but that's not the vibe I'm getting in here, at all, much less the written word.Literally nobody is stating everyone needs to stay shut in...my spidey sense sees that and knows its just not true. Can you point out where anyone here is stating everyone needs to be shut in?
Yes...people are stubborn...people that keep saying we need to do this or that...but can't answer the simple questions of places meeting the guidelines put in place...what was the agenda of the guidelines?
Well don't leave us hanging, what's it telling you?!?Anyway, my spidey sense starts going off when I see some of the stuff written in this forum.
In regards to the former, from what I've seen the lack of testing capabilities is a huge factor. Beyond that state/local decision-makers are seeing budget surpluses built up over years evaporate and become deficits in a matter of weeks. So conflicting priorities. I think a lot of them think they can manage the risks by using a phased approach.Lots going on. My only point is I am unaware of a single state that has met the phase 1 guidelines yet. I make my comments from that POV. But it does seem like the people who made those standards are now urging states to "open" anyway. It's easy to get confused.
It’s not complicated, it’s a free country and people will do what they want. We’ve been in a “shelter in place” and take a trip by Lowe’s or Home Depot.....they are bursting at the seams more than ever. No matter how many times you want to repeat this pie in the sky plan of everyone staying home and the virus disappearing it’s not realistic at all. Sorry, it sounds great though.And yet, it has worked in other countries.
Are they better than us somehow?
I mean other than they believe in facts and science and we go with our gut?
You don't want to know.Well don't leave us hanging, what's it telling you?!?
The post I responded to was talking about testing.It’s not complicated, it’s a free country and people will do what they want. We’ve been in a “shelter in place” and take a trip by Lowe’s or Home Depot.....they are bursting at the seams more than ever. No matter how many times you want to repeat this pie in the sky plan of everyone staying home and the virus disappearing it’s not realistic at all. Sorry, it sounds great though.