The Z Machine
Footballguy
Just as my wife, the doctorate in public health told me 2 months ago, "this isn't going to get better until Biden becomes President."
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Government Response To The Coronavirus (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter James Daulton
- Start date
- Status
dawgtrails
Footballguy
God that band is terribleBobbyLayne said:
Franknbeans
Footballguy
I make a general point at work (retail pharmacy) to not give much of a response to customers when they start getting political. But I have one customer who is way down the 5G/Gates microchipping us with vaccine etc rabbit hole and makes a point to say something crazy every time he comes in. Last time he said it was all gonna go away on November 3rd. I told him that it would take a couple more months because he wouldn’t take office until January 20th and he’s got a lot to fix. The look of shock on his face with my response was something I really needed after a string of stressful weeks at work.
-jb-
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Probably worth remembering that Boris Johnson ended up in ICU. Of course the president could be fine in a couple weeks. But really anything can happen.
squistion
Footballguy
Trump is 74 and obese which is considered a high risk group, plus he may have other health issues that have been disclosed to the public. Comparatively Boris Johnson is much younger and healthier. He probably will get through this OK, but who knows how this will play out. Hope and pray for the best.
The Commish
Footballguy
I suspect most of the rest of these jobs to be reclaimed will rely on confidence of the economy and feeling safe to be out and about (hotels, bars, restaurants, entertainment venues, etc). Expect this second half to be much more difficult to reclaim than the first. It's going to be a while. Analysis here in the Central Florida area suggests that over 40% of the jobs lost and yet to be refilled don't even exist anymore.
I think this has caused a seismic shift in the labor market, and nobody is really thinking about the ramifications. (Andrew Yang is, but not many other people).
Stock market still reacting to lower labor costs, probably has not factored in lost future revenues yet...
The Z Machine
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
This is what should be criticized quite a bit in all of this. The holding back such information and exposing more people is completely irresponsible.
dgreen
Footballguy
Not sure where to put this, but this thread seems fine.
I've been thinking about the covid death toll and the best way to put it into perspective. We've seen comparisons to the flu or heart disease or starvation or auto accident deaths. We've even had comparisons to numbers seen in wars.
Recently, I started thinking about this in terms of population growth. From 2018 to 2019, the US population growth was about 1.5 million. Population growth has been declining for a while. Even in a world without covid, I think the assumption is growth would continue to decline. So, without covid, I'd say, at best, we were on pace to grow by another 1.5 million people.
I'm pretty sure population growth is: (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration). My best guess (it's annoying that I can't just easily find this number) is that as of a few weeks ago, we were around 265,000 excess deaths so far this year. Just that number alone could bring population growth down to about 1.25 million. I assume the excess deaths will only continue to rise, though, so we are looking at even less population growth the longer this lasts.
I haven't found (in my 10 minutes of looking) any great info on what's going on right now with migration, but I assume there is almost no emigration or immigration the past 6 months. I believe the US usually gains population from migration (immigration > emigration) so a huge cutback in all migration would likely lead to more cutbacks in population growth. I found some data saying a little over 100,000 new people migrated to the US in FY20 Q1 (which would have been Oct-Dec 2019 assuming it uses the federal government fiscal calendar - that was the most recent number available that I could find). I wonder if that means we're looking at another 200,000+ reduction in population growth because of restricted migration.
I'd be interested to see if there are any demographers out there predicting what population growth might look like. My totally amateur, back-of-the-envelope approach leads me to think that we could net less than 1 million growth this year. That means we could see over a 33% decline in population growth due to covid.
Of course, so far, I've left out one piece of data: births. Early on people were joking/predicting a baby boom due to stay-at-home orders. That will be interesting to see if we have an increase in births to help soften the blow to population growth.
I've been thinking about the covid death toll and the best way to put it into perspective. We've seen comparisons to the flu or heart disease or starvation or auto accident deaths. We've even had comparisons to numbers seen in wars.
Recently, I started thinking about this in terms of population growth. From 2018 to 2019, the US population growth was about 1.5 million. Population growth has been declining for a while. Even in a world without covid, I think the assumption is growth would continue to decline. So, without covid, I'd say, at best, we were on pace to grow by another 1.5 million people.
I'm pretty sure population growth is: (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration). My best guess (it's annoying that I can't just easily find this number) is that as of a few weeks ago, we were around 265,000 excess deaths so far this year. Just that number alone could bring population growth down to about 1.25 million. I assume the excess deaths will only continue to rise, though, so we are looking at even less population growth the longer this lasts.
I haven't found (in my 10 minutes of looking) any great info on what's going on right now with migration, but I assume there is almost no emigration or immigration the past 6 months. I believe the US usually gains population from migration (immigration > emigration) so a huge cutback in all migration would likely lead to more cutbacks in population growth. I found some data saying a little over 100,000 new people migrated to the US in FY20 Q1 (which would have been Oct-Dec 2019 assuming it uses the federal government fiscal calendar - that was the most recent number available that I could find). I wonder if that means we're looking at another 200,000+ reduction in population growth because of restricted migration.
I'd be interested to see if there are any demographers out there predicting what population growth might look like. My totally amateur, back-of-the-envelope approach leads me to think that we could net less than 1 million growth this year. That means we could see over a 33% decline in population growth due to covid.
Of course, so far, I've left out one piece of data: births. Early on people were joking/predicting a baby boom due to stay-at-home orders. That will be interesting to see if we have an increase in births to help soften the blow to population growth.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Trump knew Hicks was positive before his fundraiser on Thursday. Not only did he continue with the fundraiser, but he didn't tell anyone there about Hicks.
Also, the timeline suggests that Trump did not get tested until after he returned from the fundraiser.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I wonder what percentage of people that attended will still vote for him. Probably close to 100% right?
[scooter]
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Plus no one from the Trump camp notified the Biden camp that he had been exposed at the debate. Gotta love their concern for fellow man.
Trump’s Covid messaging:
JAN: It’s under control
FEB: It’s a hoax
M: Packed churches by Easter
APRIL: It’s going away
MAY: Time to open up
JUNE: Just embers
JULY: Time to open schools
AUG: Other countries are worse
SEPT: Vaccines coming soon!
OCT: *tweeting from the hospital*
JAN: It’s under control
FEB: It’s a hoax
M: Packed churches by Easter
APRIL: It’s going away
MAY: Time to open up
JUNE: Just embers
JULY: Time to open schools
AUG: Other countries are worse
SEPT: Vaccines coming soon!
OCT: *tweeting from the hospital*
Jake Sherman @JakeSherman · 6m
NEWS from me and @BresPolitico: @realDonaldTrump just held a call with @stevenmnuchin1 @GOPLeader and @senatemajldr on Covid relief talks.
Lots of skepticism in the GOP ranks about the shape of a package under discussion with Pelosi and whether a deal is possible.
It kind of feels like the Trump Party have simply given up. Instead of trying to get a COVID-relief package passed in time for the election - they are punting on that idea, and moving full steam ahead on a SC nominee.
NEWS from me and @BresPolitico: @realDonaldTrump just held a call with @stevenmnuchin1 @GOPLeader and @senatemajldr on Covid relief talks.
Lots of skepticism in the GOP ranks about the shape of a package under discussion with Pelosi and whether a deal is possible.
It kind of feels like the Trump Party have simply given up. Instead of trying to get a COVID-relief package passed in time for the election - they are punting on that idea, and moving full steam ahead on a SC nominee.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bamboo Bill
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
And it's now officially dead.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.
I have asked @senatemajldr Mitch McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Our Economy is doing very well. The Stock Market is at record levels, JOBS and unemployment also coming back in record numbers. We are leading the World in Economic Recovery, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!
Stocks just tanked, surprised he didn't wait to announce this until after the markets closed.
caustic
Footballguy
I know Donald Trump wants to win in November, so it's amazing how every move he's made recently seems calibrated to inflict maximum harm on his campaign. How do you think voters feel about halting economic aid to focus on confirming a supreme court justice who could overturn the ACA and Roe?
dgreen
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't get it. I guess he's going with "It's the dems fault we don't have a second stimulus. Vote for me and all Rs and you'll get the biggest stimulus ever!"
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Harm on his campaign? Seems like maximum harm on the American people, particularly those who need help the most or at the most risk.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
Of course -- I just mentioned the campaign because that's something I know he cares about. I was expecting a deal, not necessarily because Trump took the advice of expert economists or empathized with those who are struggling through the pandemic, but because sending out another round of checks right before the election could help him win. It was an instance where his self-interest aligned with the public interest, and he botched it.
Last edited by a moderator:
BigJim®
Footballguy
And query, if Trump loses the election, what is his motivation to do something for the American people who voted him out?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
A stimulus bills was unlikely but this move puts an end to any hope. If you’re a small business who believes that stimulus bill was the last chance to stay open, the news of today might be the last straw that leads to layoffs or full closures. There may have been hope that Trump would come out of his hospitalization and tell his people to get a deal done. I’ve given up on trying to understand a stock market booming during a pandemic.
The easiest way to think about this - stop thinking about the stock market as an economic indicator/barometer.
In the short-term, a lot of public companies cut a lot of costs by laying people off - increasing profits. Some companies - the Amazons of the world - were in the perfect position to take advantage of the situation. While, a lot of the pain has initially fallen on smaller, non-public, businesses.
Eventually that will catch-up to the bigger companies - but the stock market generally thinks about 3 months ahead at a time - at best.
Trump in a lame duck period is a scary thought. I don’t know if he will do anything to benefit his own party, it will all be about enriching and protecting himself.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Forget all those hurting...we need a supreme court justice. The dems commercials wrote themselves.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
I think we will fully understand why a fired employee is typically escorted out of the building immediately.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
This is exactly why I figured a deal would get done. Why miss the chance to have another round of checks with your signature on it sent to the voters? I mean, this is just such common sense......jeez....
It might not be a bad thing if he continues to believe that he has a chance to win throughout the transition period.
- Status
Similar threads
