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Pick-a-Player -- 1.11: Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill, or Josh Jacobs (1 Viewer)

Given the scenario below, who would you select?

  • Nick Chubb

    Votes: 28 35.4%

  • Tyreek Hill

    Votes: 34 43.0%

  • Josh Jacobs

    Votes: 15 19.0%

  • Other/None of these three

    Votes: 2 2.5%
  • Total voters
    79
Clayton Gray

Clayton Gray

Just call me Carlton
Staff member
Let's make another decision in the Pick-a-Player series. Every couple of days, we'll give you a situation and ask you to pick one of three players.

A couple of days later, the results will be published on the Footballguys website along with select comments from this thread.

So, let's get to it

It's the 1.11 pick in a 12-team, PPR, 4-point passing touchdown draft. The players listed below are off the board. Would you take Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill, or Josh Jacobs? Or would you pass on all three?

Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 PK, 1 Def

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR/13
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG/11
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL/10
RB Alvin Kamara, NO/6
RB Dalvin Cook, MIN/7
RB Derrick Henry, TEN/7
RB Joe Mixon, CIN/9
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC/10

WR Michael Thomas, NO/6
WR Davante Adams, GB/5

 
I would go with Hill, since he is relatively safe top WR with a high ceiling and I doubt he would be available by your next pick. I do not value either Jacobs or Chubb enough to end up with them this early, especially in PPR where neither of them catch the ball much and they both have better pass catching backs on their teams roster in Richard and Hunt respectively. Since there are only the 2 picks at the bend for #12 until our next pick, we still have plenty of available RB to choose from at 2.02. I would rather have Sanders or Drake over these 2 if I was going RB anyway, in that order. I think it is likely at least one of those 2 RB are left, and somehow if #12 picks both of them you still have a reasonable choice between Julio Jones and your favorite between the two poll RBs or another top RB like Aaron Jones. If you go Julio Jones then ideally you could grab 2 of David Johnson, James Conner, or Chris Carson at 3.11/4.02. WR WR is perfectly reasonable in 3 WR PPR if they both have first round grades.

 
huthut said:
I would go with Hill, since he is relatively safe top WR with a high ceiling and I doubt he would be available by your next pick. I do not value either Jacobs or Chubb enough to end up with them this early, especially in PPR where neither of them catch the ball much and they both have better pass catching backs on their teams roster in Richard and Hunt respectively. Since there are only the 2 picks at the bend for #12 until our next pick, we still have plenty of available RB to choose from at 2.02. I would rather have Sanders or Drake over these 2 if I was going RB anyway, in that order. I think it is likely at least one of those 2 RB are left, and somehow if #12 picks both of them you still have a reasonable choice between Julio Jones and your favorite between the two poll RBs or another top RB like Aaron Jones. If you go Julio Jones then ideally you could grab 2 of David Johnson, James Conner, or Chris Carson at 3.11/4.02. WR WR is perfectly reasonable in 3 WR PPR if they both have first round grades.
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Going back to Hill and Mahommes last full season together, Hill had five games over 28 points.  Chubb and Jacobs had two combined last year.  Hill gives you a fighting chance when you are facing the Cmac owner.  Selecting Chubb or Jacobs seems like you are spotting 100 points to the guys drafting in spots 1-5 at the RB position.  I would prefer to claw some of that advantage back by getting a leg up at WR.    

 
BassNBrew said:
Going back to Hill and Mahommes last full season together, Hill had five games over 28 points.  Chubb and Jacobs had two combined last year.  Hill gives you a fighting chance when you are facing the Cmac owner.  Selecting Chubb or Jacobs seems like you are spotting 100 points to the guys drafting in spots 1-5 at the RB position.  I would prefer to claw some of that advantage back by getting a leg up at WR.    
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You are preaching to the choir, I went with Hill too, I do not need to be convinced! I would have Hill ranked 1.07 with this scoring. 

 
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I'd go with Jacobs out of running back scarcity. I've become -- partly because of this exercise -- fairly certain that in order to win this year in redraft you have to appreciate the backs for what they are, which is scarce. If you have a chance to get Jacobs at 1.11 and potentially Chubb or even Ekeler, if this is PPR, at your turn, you're shoring up a position that will show little value later.

I think that running backs are king again in fantasy football. 

 
Out of these I’m taking Hill solely for the reason that I like 3 RBs fairly equally in Chubb, Jacobs and Miles Sanders, and I’ll get one of those with my next pick. Julio would be the only other consideration but not enough to want to go WR-WR here. 

 
rockaction said:
I'd go with Jacobs out of running back scarcity. I've become -- partly because of this exercise -- fairly certain that in order to win this year in redraft you have to appreciate the backs for what they are, which is scarce. If you have a chance to get Jacobs at 1.11 and potentially Chubb or even Ekeler, if this is PPR, at your turn, you're shoring up a position that will show little value later.

I think that running backs are king again in fantasy football. 
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so do you think Jacobs is the better fantasy player in a combined board or are you just selecting him because so many backs are already taken?

 
Gally said:
so do you think Jacobs is the better fantasy player in a combined board or are you just selecting him because so many backs are already taken?
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I guess if you're talking raw points and nothing else, I'm taking Hill. But there are still going to be a ton of receivers left that will give you a closer value to Hill at the end of the third round than you'll find a back close to Jacobs at the end of the third. So, yeah, I'm selecting him based on how many backs have been taken and what's left, really. I know I'm not picking for another twenty picks after my first turn, so I'm really worried about throwing late darts at running backs with either muddled positions or guys that are still vying for touches as opposed to a quality receiver that you'll likely find in the third or fourth. I think it's a rudimentary VBD, really, what I'm doing, just without math. Unless you have a few guys you think you can get late at RB that you really believe in, that seems to be the way it's working this year.

At least that's my take.  

 
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Jacobs by a lot. In my opinion he is the last of the elite running backs.

Hill is a stud but at 1.11, with only two receivers off the board so far, you're going to have a top 5 wr available at 2.2 by definition. Regardless of ADP, you might even get hill if the owner at 1.12 is a stud rb enthusiast.  If you take hill, there's a good chance 1.12/2.1 are Jacobs and Chubb and now you're probably going wr again at 2.2 and hoping to take your rb1 with the 35th pick. And you'll be forced into taking at least one at the 3/4 turn because after round 5 or so, it's a wasteland.  Yuck. 

I love Chubb"s talent, and he could put up high rb1 numbers in year 3, but at this point it would be a bit of an outlier season, especially in full PPR. He's more of a high floor low ceiling pick. Jacobs was a first round talent, looked the part, can run catch and score touchdowns, the team should be improved over last year, and they now have deep speed along with a stud tight end to keep safeties away.  He's got a similar floor to Chubb but it's possible he makes the second year leap we've seen from plenty of other top backs.  

The next tier of RBs has some high upside guys but with a lot more warts. Get your anchor rb1 and your whole draft works easier after that 

 
bostonfred said:
Jacobs by a lot. In my opinion he is the last of the elite running backs.

Hill is a stud but at 1.11, with only two receivers off the board so far, you're going to have a top 5 wr available at 2.2 by definition. Regardless of ADP, you might even get hill if the owner at 1.12 is a stud rb enthusiast.  If you take hill, there's a good chance 1.12/2.1 are Jacobs and Chubb and now you're probably going wr again at 2.2 and hoping to take your rb1 with the 35th pick. And you'll be forced into taking at least one at the 3/4 turn because after round 5 or so, it's a wasteland.  Yuck. 

I love Chubb"s talent, and he could put up high rb1 numbers in year 3, but at this point it would be a bit of an outlier season, especially in full PPR. He's more of a high floor low ceiling pick. Jacobs was a first round talent, looked the part, can run catch and score touchdowns, the team should be improved over last year, and they now have deep speed along with a stud tight end to keep safeties away.  He's got a similar floor to Chubb but it's possible he makes the second year leap we've seen from plenty of other top backs.  

The next tier of RBs has some high upside guys but with a lot more warts. Get your anchor rb1 and your whole draft works easier after that 
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Disagree. James White is always a playable ppr option available in the wasteland.  Finished two spots in front of Jacobs last year.  I’ve been seeing Bell available at the 3/4 turn who could easily match Jacobs

 
I love having dynamic players who can score on any play from anywhere. That would be Tyreek Hill. Especially in a 3 wr league. Then I will take my favorite RB on the way back. I think there is more opportunity than normal to snag a future quality starter or maybe even a league winner at RB later in the draft. This is both because of C19 and also because there is some really good depth behind established starters. I love the WR/RB start from this position. I plan on loading up on upside RBs in the mid to late rounds. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Disagree. James White is always a playable ppr option available in the wasteland.  Finished two spots in front of Jacobs last year.  I’ve been seeing Bell available at the 3/4 turn who could easily match Jacobs
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13 games 1314 yards as a rookie is pretty good.

Wait that's Todd Gurley 

Jacobs had 1316 yards in 13 games. 

The difference of course is that they were both first round picks and both were good at running catching and scoring touchdowns wait a minute they don't sound that different

 
Out of the 3 players listed, one them has upside through the roof.  That player is Hill.  He's the easy choice here.  Chubb has Hunt to kill a lot of his value, and while I like Jacobs a lot,  there isn't much difference between Jacobs, Chubb, A Jones, Sanders or Drake to me.  I am going to get one of these at 2.2.   

So I take Hill and pray Jacobs lasts 2 more picks.

 
Hill is a no brainer, and if the two RBs come around the corner, I would not care which one gets to me at 2.2.  Still would take BPA, but the two RB options...  

 
I know it’s a discussion on the 11 pick. But I’m surprised to see Michael Thomas sitting there at #9 in PPR.

Im worried about getting him at #8 on standard.

 
Last 3 years tyreek hill 220 receptions, 3522 yards, 26 touchdowns in 43 games.m

Last 2 years 135/2339/19 in 28 games. 

Specifically in 2018, during mahomes MVP season, he had 87/1479/12. 

I think it's reasonable to project him for 80 catches, 1300 yards, 10 touchdowns - that's his per game production over the three seasons. It includes a little of the 2018 MVP season and a little of him playing dinged up. 

That's really good, but in the second round you've got Godwin, who put up 86/1333/9, and Julio, who had 99/1394/6. 

You are guaranteed one of those 3 in the second round if you take Jacobs at 1.11. You are not guaranteed a stud RB. 

I can understand if you are higher on Hill than I am, but unless you're expecting him to repeat or exceed his best season, or are very down on julio/godwin, he's really not head and shoulders above the next two receivers on the board. He's definitely an exciting player and a guy you want to have in your lineup on Monday night no matter how many points you need to win, but I don't personally care whether I get him or Julio, who has been better all 3 of the last 3 years. 

I do care about which RB I get. Maybe I'm too high on Jacobs, but I think he takes a big step forward in year two.

I've heard people say that Carr doesnt throw to his running backs, because the raiders had just 68 receptions from their running backs last year. But in 2018, it was 115. 

People worry about Jalen Richard. Richard's 68 catches in 2018 was a symptom of Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch being older backs who needed to be spelled, and not being pass catchers. Last year, their starting running back was too good a runner to take him off the field as much as they did and it was Jalen Richard's numbers that suffered. 

They drafted Jacobs in the first round in large part because he can catch, and Gruden loves throwing to his running backs.  Michael Pittman had 175 catches as the full time starter from ages 27 to 29. Then they drafted Cadillac Williams and he couldn't stay healthy. I think a lot of us remember the RBBC days with Cadillac, Pittman, Alstott and Earnest Graham sharing work. But Gruden wants to throw to his starting backs. Napoleon Kaufman, Charlie Garner, Michael Pittman - these guys all were getting big time receiving numbers, and Jacobs is a better runner than any of them.

I see a high floor high ceiling player who could take the next step to becoming elite. 

 
I change my answer to Miles Sanders. I thought he had been picked originally. I think it's possible to get Tyreek on the way back. 

 
Mongidig said:
I change my answer to Miles Sanders. I thought he had been picked originally. I think it's possible to get Tyreek on the way back. 
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Not if I’m sitting at the turn it ain’t. ;)  

 
Clayton Gray said:
Absolutely no consensus:

  • FBG Staff takes Chubb
  • Shark Pool takes Hill
  • Facebook takes Jacobs
The 1.11 could be a wild spot this year.

Pick-a-Player: Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill, or Josh Jacobs
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-pick-a-player-chubb-hill-jacobs
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Baffled by this. I see at least 4 RBs of roughly equal value there in AJones, Jacobs, Sanders & Chubb (who I believe is at least a full tier behind them due to Kareem Hunt).

i see no other WRs there with the BOOM! potential/weekly ceiling of Tyreek Hill. 

knowing imma get one of Sanders/AJones/Jacobs on the way back, TyHill seems like a no-brained, but I know some folks just hate Tyreek Hill, often for reasons having nothing to do with football. 

i suspect that influences some of the answers. That & the ever-shifting narrative of RB value in FF. 

Fun poll though - this was definitely a good exercise in seeing how others would value these dudes from that spot. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Baffled by this. I see at least 4 RBs of roughly equal value there in AJones, Jacobs, Sanders & Chubb (who I believe is at least a full tier behind them due to Kareem Hunt).

i see no other WRs there with the BOOM! potential/weekly ceiling of Tyreek Hill. 
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Julio has literally outscored hill every year. 

Hill's best game last year was 11/157/1. Julio's was 13/134/2.

Chubb has Hunt to worry about, Jones has Dillon, and Sanders has Pedersen.  Jacobs is the guy. 

 
bostonfred said:
Julio has literally outscored hill every year. 

Hill's best game last year was 11/157/1. Julio's was 13/134/2.

Chubb has Hunt to worry about, Jones has Dillon, and Sanders has Pedersen.  Jacobs is the guy. 
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Julio is a favorite player of mine - I’ve had him many times. 

Julio isn’t a spring chicken.

Mahommes > Ryan

Hill is 26, Mahomes is 24. 

Julio is 31, Ryan is 35

Chiefs offense > Falcons offense

Using any comparative examples from last year seems a bit unfair since Hill hurt his shoulder and was out for a month, then  Mahomes missed a month with the knee injury. Seems like an apples to apples comparison wouldn’t include 8 weeks they didn’t play together. :shrug:  
 

Even then, Hill had the back to back 11/157/1 & 6/140/1 games. That’s the kind of production I’m looking for more of with a full schedule played together. The home run hitting ability of Hill is what makes him such an exciting player to me. 

Maybe I’m crazy, but I’d much rather have the younger WR with the younger QB who I see as having a higher ceiling for 2020. I believe a full year with a more developed Mahomes & a healthy Hill could be one of the most explosive of all time. 

Unfortunately past season’s stats don't count for the next season or I’d agree that Julio is the choice. 

I don’t see Jacobs as that much better than Sanders or AJones. There are other RBs in Oakland they use as well, and I think of the 3 offenses, Oakland arguably has the worst QB. That matters to me as well since QBs help or hinder sustaining drives. I wish they didn’t since I have Carr on my superflex roster, but it is what it is.

Not knocking your choice - we all have our takes. But Hill’s the pick here for me. I hate investing early in aging players. It rarely works out. In my experience they’re far  more likely to be 2019 AJ Green than 2007 Randy Moss. I acknowledge that JJones is special, so when he does eventually fade, he’ll probably more resemble  Tim Brown‘s or Jerry Rice’s 2003 season than a complete breakdown. 

 
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Clayton Gray said:
The best part of this lack of consensus is that many people easily have a favorite player to take here.
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I appreciate it in another sense because it tells me Hill is not valued the same by all, with some happily letting him fall to the turn 

as a result I just made an opening salvo to.a trade for Hill in my dynasty league. 

I likely would not have done that without this topic, so it was definitely valuable in an unexpected sense. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Not if I’m sitting at the turn it ain’t. ;)  
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No kidding, not getting past me at the turn either but Julio is a nice consolation prize at the 2.02

I'm stuck with the 1.12 in my main redraft this year and RB is gross going WR/WR. I'll take hill and a dart throw at one of the RB's in that pile.

 
FreshiZ said:
No kidding, not getting past me at the turn either but Julio is a nice consolation prize at the 2.02

I'm stuck with the 1.12 in my main redraft this year and RB is gross going WR/WR. I'll take hill and a dart throw at one of the RB's in that pile.
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Remember, the best laid plans of mice & men. The turn could go Hill/Julio.

then you get Jacobs/RB, because you don’t want to reach for a lesser tier WR, and then your WR1 is at 3.11.

ew. 

I’ve been in that exact position. Never again. Hill is the pick for me here. 

 
with 11 pick, I'd take Hill if the board fell like that. 

You still may get one of Chubb and Jacobs if the 12 pick goes WR/RB or WR/WR .  

With Hopkins, Julio, Miles Sanders, (all who I like more than Jacobs)  on the board you will have plenty of options on the turn

 
bostonfred said:
Julio has literally outscored hill every year. 

Hill's best game last year was 11/157/1. Julio's was 13/134/2.

Chubb has Hunt to worry about, Jones has Dillon, and Sanders has Pedersen.  Jacobs is the guy. 
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Julio is great. He's too good and gets doubled and triple teamed  because of it. He will still end up near the top. It's weird though, it just feels like he leaves you wanting more each week. I would rather grab Calvin Ridley a couple rounds later and invest in another stud early round two.

 
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It's unreal how many great receiving options there are this year. You could go RB/RB to start and still get 3 studs at WR. 

 
Hurl Bruce said:
If Davante Adams was there, would you pick him?
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I would take a deep breath, convince myself that end of year after injury recovery Adams is the player on the board, ignore my recency bias of getting burned last year, and take him, knowing I’d get one of the RBs or Hill on the way back. 

 
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I'd go Chubb there. I think the Hunt concerns are overblown. Hunt and fresh legs late last year, and that as under an entirely different staff. I could see Hunt being no greater a threat to Chubb than Mattison was to Cook.

Chubb has averaged 5 YPC despite arguably the NFL's worst coaching and worst OT play in his career. Both those things drastically upgraded this offseason. I'd take him over Kamara/Mixon/CEH as well. I think if things break right, we have another Derrick Henry here. 

Jacobs would be my 2nd choice. I like Hill, but I think WR is just so much deeper than RB. Unless a draft is basically nothing but RB's taken, I doubt I'm going WR before round 3.

 
rockaction said:
Sigmund Bloom agrees with you.

So do I.

Place the weight accordingly and think of broken clocks in my instance. :)
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I still probably go WR/RB/WR if Hill is there. 

i am a believer in positional scarcity. I am also a believer in not letting an elite scorer pass me by at 1.11, knowing I can still get an very good RB 3 picks later. 

if this hypothetical were different and 3-4 WRs go before 11, I go RB/RB and hunt for upside 3.11, 4.02, 5.11 & probably do well.

But I’m going by tiers before scarcity. Personal preference. I hate letting what I believe could be a top 3 WR slip by to take a guy o think will be RB8-7-10. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I still probably go WR/RB/WR if Hill is there. 

i am a believer in positional scarcity. I am also a believer in not letting an elite scorer pass me by at 1.11, knowing I can still get an very good RB 3 picks later. 

if this hypothetical were different and 3-4 WRs go before 11, I go RB/RB and hunt for upside 3.11, 4.02, 5.11 & probably do well.

But I’m going by tiers before scarcity. Personal preference. I hate letting what I believe could be a top 3 WR slip by to take a guy o think will be RB8-7-10. 
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I see what you're saying. I would have given up the 1.01 plus more in dynasty to get Hill, that's how much I value him. I was just sort of poking fun at myself after reading the article. Nice to see someone in the business have a similar yet independent conclusion as one's own. 

 
Recency bias galore here. This weeks game was the first game Hill has looked like Hill this year. Sure the numbers have been there lately through TDs with Mahomes dinking and dunking but this was the first week Hills suburb attributes were on display all year. Jacobs or more likely Carr and the Raiders can’t be counted on from week to week. I wouldn’t take Jacobs in the top 15 next year. Chubb is still an elite talent and should be right at the back end of the first. 
 

2021 

T Hill 1.8 - 1.11

N Chubb 1.9 - 1.12

J Jacobs 2.1 - 2.9

 
The Show said:
Recency bias galore here. This weeks game was the first game Hill has looked like Hill this year. Sure the numbers have been there lately through TDs with Mahomes dinking and dunking but this was the first week Hills suburb attributes were on display all year. Jacobs or more likely Carr and the Raiders can’t be counted on from week to week. I wouldn’t take Jacobs in the top 15 next year. Chubb is still an elite talent and should be right at the back end of the first. 
 

2021 

T Hill 1.8 - 1.11

N Chubb 1.9 - 1.12

J Jacobs 2.1 - 2.9
Click to expand...
All the recently biased guys are stomping in the playoffs.

 
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