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I will be putting my thoughts (word vomit, maybe? ;)  )  into this thread now instead of the FD one.  Took most of my $ out of FD and moved it to DK after last week's live scoring debacle.  

Will put more stat thoughts together, but I did notice that since they took so long to update contests, they were able to price up Mattison to 7.2K which makes him the 3rd most expensive on the slate.   At first glance, it seemed like a lot of rbs at the top in decent spots.  Gurley is cheap, and just went off, but I hate playing RBs like that on DK when they have 0 reception upside, so I will be torn there.   I did make a mental note of the group of sub 6K RBs going against bad run Ds this week:  R.Jones, Gibson, Gaskin, Montgomery, and David Johnson.   I also noted the basically trash TE options.  Last week we had to pick from 5 studs, this week we have Andrews at the top and then .... 

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So with all our talk last week about needing 2 correlations in the LUs - what I liked last week was trying something like:

Correlation 1:  Qb-Wr-WR/te + opposing WR/TE

Correlation 2:  Rb + WR (either opposite team or same team)

Correlation 3:  Rb + DT  or another RB -WR stack (if I used TE in the first game stack).  

 

Mostly where I am going with this is I think I am going to do a bit less research with the WRs just because I will be using correlations and the pool will be narrowed down because of that.  

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RBs.   I focused a bit more on target market share for the list since I am focusing on DK.  When looking at the list, the target % cutoff seemed to be about 12%, so RBs with a high opportunity share% (I believe I did 30%+) and 12% target share:

A.Jones, J.Robinson, R.Jones, Gaskin, Mixon, M.Davis, Montgomery.  

A few ??s:

Gurley - had 14% target share last week

Gibson - had 18% last week.  

Mattison -  Cook averages 12% 

 

I think of that list, the only one that I didn't see a decent WR to correlate with from the opponent was Mixon.   I am not touching Indy pass catchers.  

A couple that were close were: (10-11% target share) Conner, Gordon, Hunt.  

 

I tout this guy too much, but J.Williams saw 24% target share last week and a few carries.  If I remember right, TB is weak vs. pass catching RBs but I will have to look into that.  He is only 4K, which is why I even brought him up.  

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1 hour ago, bucksoh said:

First lineup

Qb. C. Newton

Rb. A. Gibson

Rb. M. Gaskin

Wr. A. Thielen

Wr. J. Smith-Schuster

Wr. D. Bryd

Te. N. Fant

Wr.  J. Edelman

D. Miami

:lol:

my hope placeholder waz a Gibson/Gaskin lineup too:

Tannehill - Gaskin/Gibson - Brown/Fuller/Galloday/Crowder - J.Smith - Wash

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2 hours ago, Lionz will turn it around! said:

Toying with:

 

QB.  Cousins

RB. Mattison

RB. Gaskin

WR. Cooks

WR. Thielen

WR. Jefferson

TE. Andrews

FLX. J. Smith

D.  Miami

 

A few observations:

1.  If you are going with a stack like that, you probably should have an Atl run back.  

2.  Double TE LUs rarely take top spots in gpps

3.  I would be nervous that Cousins doesn't throw enough to support all that, but if he does - then it's definitely a shootout and you probably need Atl players like I posted in #1.  

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4 hours ago, Lionz will turn it around! said:

Toying with:

 

QB.  Cousins

RB. Mattison

RB. Gaskin

WR. Cooks

WR. Thielen

WR. Jefferson

TE. Andrews

FLX. J. Smith

D.  Miami

 

I wouldn't go chasing points with Cook,  Also would go with a better Te. Matchup like E. Engram over J. Smith.  But other than that I  like.

Edited by bucksoh
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22 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I will be putting my thoughts (word vomit, maybe? ;)  )  into this thread now instead of the FD one.  Took most of my $ out of FD and moved it to DK after last week's live scoring debacle.  

Will put more stat thoughts together, but I did notice that since they took so long to update contests, they were able to price up Mattison to 7.2K which makes him the 3rd most expensive on the slate.   At first glance, it seemed like a lot of rbs at the top in decent spots.  Gurley is cheap, and just went off, but I hate playing RBs like that on DK when they have 0 reception upside, so I will be torn there.   I did make a mental note of the group of sub 6K RBs going against bad run Ds this week:  R.Jones, Gibson, Gaskin, Montgomery, and David Johnson.   I also noted the basically trash TE options.  Last week we had to pick from 5 studs, this week we have Andrews at the top and then .... 

I just started looking at stuff this week and honestly the list of players based on your research is the first thing I look at.   I hope you never stop posting your thoughts about DFS  :thumbup:

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19 minutes ago, Steeler said:

I just started looking at stuff this week and honestly the list of players based on your research is the first thing I look at.   I hope you never stop posting your thoughts about DFS  :thumbup:

Thanks for that.  I figure if I look at it, I might as well post it just in case it might help somebody or in the discussion/pushback it might make me think about something else.  

I will probably look at stuff more tonight - it seems like stats and stuff were lagging behind this week, and I am not sure if there are even totals for the other games.  I was surprised at how long my initial list of RBs was, so ownership might dictate a bit of who I look at closer, honestly.  

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On 10/13/2020 at 5:49 PM, KarmaPolice said:

I will be putting my thoughts (word vomit, maybe? ;)  )  into this thread now instead of the FD one.  Took most of my $ out of FD and moved it to DK after last week's live scoring debacle.  

Will put more stat thoughts together, but I did notice that since they took so long to update contests, they were able to price up Mattison to 7.2K which makes him the 3rd most expensive on the slate.   At first glance, it seemed like a lot of rbs at the top in decent spots.  Gurley is cheap, and just went off, but I hate playing RBs like that on DK when they have 0 reception upside, so I will be torn there.   I did make a mental note of the group of sub 6K RBs going against bad run Ds this week:  R.Jones, Gibson, Gaskin, Montgomery, and David Johnson.   I also noted the basically trash TE options.  Last week we had to pick from 5 studs, this week we have Andrews at the top and then .... 

As a Bears fan, I hate Montgomery in these spots.  They look so attractive, then Nagy gives him 10 carries.  After the game, he'll admit that he needs to call more running plays.   

Edited by FairWarning
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54 minutes ago, FairWarning said:

As a Bears fan, I hate Montgomery in these spots.  They look so attractive, then Nagy gives him 10 carries.  After the game, he'll admit that he needs to call more running plays.   

So you are give us FairWarning that Montgomery might suck?   :bowtie:

Is this old Bears or do you think something might be changing with the Cohen injury?  I brought him up because I was seeing his workload get better every week.  His team rush %s for the season are:  50, 52, 58, 65, 71.   His target % the last couple weeks have been 14% and 19%.  

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

So you are give us FairWarning that Montgomery might suck?   :bowtie:

Is this old Bears or do you think something might be changing with the Cohen injury?  I brought him up because I was seeing his workload get better every week.  His team rush %s for the season are:  50, 52, 58, 65, 71.   His target % the last couple weeks have been 14% and 19%.  

Bears lost one of their starting OL for the year last week also.  Cohen really was doing little anyway, more a change of pace back.  If you don’t mind 65 total yards and a possible TD, DM is your flex guy.  I think there are guys with more upside.  

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I am having trouble with the Qbs this week.    The high pace games are Houst/Jax, Atl/Minn (just because of Atl.  Minn is one of the slowest), and Miami/Jets.   I guess that is a place to start.  

I tried to break down tiers of WRs, especially to see what would be good stacking partners.  

Tier 1 (25%+ targets, 40%+ air yards):

Thielen, OBJ, M.Brown, McLaurin, Ridley, Edelman, Adams

 

Tier 2 (25% + targets, 30%+ air yards):

Crowder, A.Robinson, R.Anderson

 

Tier 3 (20%%+  targets, 40%+ air yards)

Slayton, DJ Moore

 

Tier 4 (20%+ targets, 30%+ air yards)

Golladay, Fulgham, Hilton, Byrd, Higgins, Fuller

 

Going to do some dumpster diving like I did last week and see if any sub 4K WRs stand out.  Didn't have Claypool on the list last week, but did have Fulgham in Lus and J.Smith instead of Zacch.  

 

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TEs I made a quick list of guys with 15% or so target % and 15% or more air yards:

J.Smith, Andrews, Fant, Hooper, Gesicki, Tonyan, Ebron.  

Two punts that stood out from the last couple weeks that might be low % gpp shots for stacks:

Eifert (16% the last couple weeks, and air yards coming up)

Irv Smith (13% targets last week and 20% air yards)   

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Cheap WRs:

In the sub 4K range, Byrd, J.Smith and Hightower are the ones that stood out.   First two for sure, Hightower is just a WTF gpp pivot.  I just thought it was interesting that he had 18% targets and 44% of the air yards last week.  

In the sub 5K range  Cooks, Higgins, MVS, N.Harry, Fulgham are the ones that were on the above list that I posted.  

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On 10/13/2020 at 5:49 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Took most of my $ out of FD and moved it to DK after last week's live scoring debacle. 

You probably saw this but maybe not since you bailed on FD - they refunded 50% of loses up to $100 due to the issues they experienced last week.  Would hate for you to leave any money there if you got a refund after you left the platform.

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9 minutes ago, Steeler said:

You probably saw this but maybe not since you bailed on FD - they refunded 50% of loses up to $100 due to the issues they experienced last week.  Would hate for you to leave any money there if you got a refund after you left the platform.

Unless I missed it, I didn't see that come through.  I got an email from them that said they gave me a voucher for Milly Maker entry this week for the trouble.  I am not fully off FD - it's just that I had about 80% of my $ on FD and 20% on DK last week, and I just made the transfer to reverse those #s.    

ETA:  I just checked and the only notification on my account was for the voucher.  I thought I lost a little, but maybe I broke even on the week?

Edited by KarmaPolice
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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I got an email from them that said they gave me a voucher for Milly Maker entry this week for the trouble

Maybe they gave people different things for their troubles?  I didn't get a voucher and I lost money last week at FD.

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First glance at ownership %s, and a few things stood out:

GB/TB being underowned across the board.  

I see Montgomery at 40%+, and R.Jones at 4.   Gaskin at 14.etc..  I had him on the list, but at that ownership, D.Mont might be a flat out fade.   Mattison was close in the high 30s, so if that game doesn't go things will shift.  

Looking now like my gpp rbs will be Jones, Jones, Gaskin, Gibson, Mixon, et al. 

Not sure why, but Fuller was really low owned, as was Cooks.  Also the NE WRs and Crowder as a comeback with Gaskin.  

 

Not sure what GB stacks will look like with the rest of the LU since they are $$$, but I might look at that now.   

 

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On 10/14/2020 at 4:43 PM, bucksoh said:

I wouldn't go chasing points with Cook,  Also would go with a better Te. Matchup like E. Engram over J. Smith.  But other than that I  like.

I'm chasing points from Cooks too this week. It's more about the fact that BoB is gone. I would chase points from Jets too if Gase was gone. 

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1 minute ago, TwinTurbo said:

I'm chasing points from Cook this week too. It's more about the fact that BoB is gone. I would chase points from Jets too if Gase was gone. 

Good luck I only chase points if it is a stud and he is playing a poor defense.

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Just now, bucksoh said:

Good luck I only chase points if it is a stud and he is playing a poor defense.

Yes makes sense. I only play gpp, so I try to go after players that could hit big but will have lower ownership. I targeted Cooks last week too but didn't get him in enough lineups. 

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1 minute ago, TwinTurbo said:

Yes makes sense. I only play gpp, so I try to go after players that could hit big but will have lower ownership. I targeted Cooks last week too but didn't get him in enough lineups. 

Fbgs should get into multiplyers.  I usually do $10 win $100 or $5 win $50.  I think it would be more fun if you know who you're winning against.   That's why I always go in against  chipotle addict cause that dude plays in a lot of gpp.  And it is more fun when I beat him.  If anyone wants to do this I'm Bucksoh on draft kings.

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27 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Yes makes sense. I only play gpp, so I try to go after players that could hit big but will have lower ownership. I targeted Cooks last week too but didn't get him in enough lineups. 

Last week was the only week I didn't play Cook. Also rage dropped him in 3 leagues :bag:

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Great article this week talking about looking at top 10 LUs in the Milly Maker on DK for the season so far.  Highlights were:

 

48% used a 4 man game stack, and 72% had a game stack of some sort (3, 4, or 5 man)

60% had WR in the slot, and looked like about 35% with RB

Average was 1.9 players with <5% ownership or less.  43 of 50 had between 1-3 of those low owned players.  

For the low owned players, most common positions were WR and TE.  

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4 hours ago, bucksoh said:

Fbgs should get into multiplyers.  I usually do $10 win $100 or $5 win $50.  I think it would be more fun if you know who you're winning against.   That's why I always go in against  chipotle addict cause that dude plays in a lot of gpp.  And it is more fun when I beat him.  If anyone wants to do this I'm Bucksoh on draft kings.

Did you enter any yet? I'll search for you. 

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15 hours ago, bucksoh said:

Fbgs should get into multiplyers.  I usually do $10 win $100 or $5 win $50.  I think it would be more fun if you know who you're winning against.   That's why I always go in against  chipotle addict cause that dude plays in a lot of gpp.  And it is more fun when I beat him.  If anyone wants to do this I'm Bucksoh on draft kings.

What kind of contests are you talking about?  Like we run for FD - a 20 entry contest?

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1 minute ago, Raging weasel said:

As far as I know, you can't search for someone on DK or FD. He might just mean he's going to manually look at the entries:shrug:

Makes sense.  I thought you could invite people into a contest, but I guess that's just via email or a link like we use here?

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So I tried a little bit more of a step back and look at the games and ownership approach this am.  We have 5 games that are sitting at 50pts+ on the week:

GB/TB, Atl/Minn, Det/Jax, Houst/Tenn, and Clev/Pitts.    

Then what I did is just wrote down quick what the highest owned pieces of those games were and see where all the ownership is going.  No surprise, it was a ton on Minn, Tenn, Atl, and quite a bit on Houst and J.Robinson.   So my idea was to try to attack these games with lower owned pieces and use the popular ones as secondary stacks.  Here are the things that I highligted on my sheet to look at:

  • I said before, but despite being the highest total and the closest game, GB and TB pices are relatively low owned.  Rodgers/Jones/Adams/Godwin hovering about 10% which isn't terrible, Tonyan at 6.   But, besides that there are some interesting GB pieces that are really low owned: MVS/J.Williams  also Brady is low owned.  
  • I keep staring at DET.   Specifically looking at the owership, Stafford/Galloday/Shenault/Robinson looks popular.   Hockenson is about 6, but what about D.Swift/Eifert/Cole sitting at <1%?   Cole saw 40% of air yards last week, Eifert's role is increasing.  
  • Very surprised that Clev/Pitts was so high.  Everything is low owned here, besides maybe chasing Claypool.    OBJ at 4% looks great.  Connor at 6%.  Ebron at 6.   I really like something like Ebron or Connor + OBJ as a secondary stack.   Don't think I want any of the QBs.  

I also just wrote down the 8 highest implied team totals and looked there for ideas if something was low owned.  

  • Of the top teams, NE might be the lowest owned.  It's interesting because they have a really concentrated WR share and they are cheap.  Problem is do we trust a Denv player as a runback?  They are also concentrated though.  Something like Cam/Harry or Byrd + Jeudy or Patrick would have 0 ownership and as a homer I might take a couple shots in the bigger gpp I am in.  
  • Balt is middle ownership, and Lamar has as high of a change at erupting as anybody.  Looks like people will be back on Fulgham, but despite Wentz throwing it more than just about anybody on the slate, nobody else is owned.  Ward, Hightower are 1% or less.   I said somewhere else, but Hightower saw 44% of the air yards last week.   The week before Rodgers saw 30%+ of the air yards, as did G.Ward.   IMO these are perfect shots for gpps since Wentz averages 354 air yards/game.  

 

An idea I used for a 3max contest:  Stafford - Mattison/Gaskin - Golladay/Cole/Fuller/AJBrown - Hockenson - Minn

 

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23 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Did you enter any yet? I'll search for you. 

I'm in the multiplyers $10  win $100 right now their is 60 out of 117 entries.  What's your name I'll look for ya.  Also in the $27 win $1000, and $25 win 250.  Which has 56 out of 176 entries.

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Ok, I B a little tipsy, so keep that in mind.   One thing I evidently don't look at enough is the RG chart of smash %.  It's their chart of odds of hitting gpps odds.  Here is their top 5 of of each position:

QB:  Stafford, Fitz, Jones, Foles, Lamar

RB:  M0nt, Matt, Davis, Henry, freeman

Wr:  Golladay, AjBrown, Theilen, McLauRin, Ridley

TE:  ebron, Engram, Burton, J>Smith, hooper

DT:  Indy, NE, Balt

 

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On 10/15/2020 at 6:52 PM, TwinTurbo said:

Miami D seems like an easy button this week. But I feel like the Jets may somehow get their first win. 

Idk about the Jets winning, but it’s a flat spot for Miami after last week.  

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On 10/14/2020 at 6:58 PM, KarmaPolice said:

So you are give us FairWarning that Montgomery might suck?   :bowtie:

Is this old Bears or do you think something might be changing with the Cohen injury?  I brought him up because I was seeing his workload get better every week.  His team rush %s for the season are:  50, 52, 58, 65, 71.   His target % the last couple weeks have been 14% and 19%.  

Here is a Little more about the bears running game  -  https://www.radio.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-bears/emmas-tailgater-bears-running-woes-start-with-matt-nagy?utm_source=WSCR-AM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WSCR-AM NEWSLETTER&utm_content=WSCR Newsletter 10-16-20

 

 I usually play single lineup tourneys on DK.  What are the best to play?  I really don’t want to go the 20 lineup route.

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2 minutes ago, FairWarning said:

Here is a Little more about the bears running game  -  https://www.radio.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-bears/emmas-tailgater-bears-running-woes-start-with-matt-nagy?utm_source=WSCR-AM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WSCR-AM NEWSLETTER&utm_content=WSCR Newsletter 10-16-20

 

 I usually play single lineup tourneys on DK.  What are the best to play?  I really don’t want to go the 20 lineup route.

The next step up are the 3 max contests. 

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I posted in the other thread, but will in here too.  I keep gravitating to that GB/TB game - DK ownership %s are even better.  Highest total, closest game on the slate and the highest owned player is Adams at 11%.    I like the cheaper RBs this week, so I think a different construction is using this game + 2 lower salary RBs.  Loading up on Brady this week and see if he has a shootout in him.  

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On 10/13/2020 at 10:40 PM, bucksoh said:

First lineup

Qb. C. Newton

Rb. A. Gibson

Rb. M. Gaskin

Wr. A. Thielen

Wr. J. Smith-Schuster

Wr. D. Bryd

Te. N. Fant

Wr.  J. Edelman

D. Miami

Another bad week $158 in and got blanked.  High score of 179 something.  Crap all around.  Roto optimizer wasn't working this week, so never able to go in with a lot of lineups might have to break down and buy a new computer.  For next week.

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8 hours ago, bucksoh said:

Another bad week $158 in and got blanked.  High score of 179 something.  Crap all around.  Roto optimizer wasn't working this week, so never able to go in with a lot of lineups might have to break down and buy a new computer.  For next week.

179 didn't win anything??! My high was 127+ which missed cashing by 2-4 points in the contests I used it in .

Too much Robinson,Evans,OBJ,Jonnu,Brate,Stafford,Brady

Missed the Burton memo- 12-22% in my 9 contests.

$8.50 in $0 out.

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On 10/19/2020 at 8:21 AM, Raging weasel said:

179 didn't win anything??! My high was 127+ which missed cashing by 2-4 points in the contests I used it in .

Too much Robinson,Evans,OBJ,Jonnu,Brate,Stafford,Brady

Missed the Burton memo- 12-22% in my 9 contests.

$8.50 in $0 out.

Where would have the Burton memo have been? I missed it too! 

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