DFS - WEEK 4 (1 Viewer)

[KarmaPolice]

Didn't see anything started and I was surprised. I just started looking through stuff for the week.

One thing that stuck out for gpps that I wanted to get out there is that there were 5 teams that were in the top 10 for Sack Potential and Rush Potential. I don't usually force the Rb/DT correlation, but when it pairs like that I take note. ALSO for this week, it helps because a few are the chalk RBs and their Ds are low owned. The teams were:

Chicago, Dallas, Det, Clev, NE.

Herbert and J.Williams are chalk this week, but those two DTs are at 2% or lower. Dallas is a popular D, but Zeke isn't highly owned. My favorite Chubb/Clev or even Hunt Clev as both pieces are low owned. NE I might try on FD if I am rolling out 100-150 LUs. That's a huge field gpp-only play.

 

[FairWarning]

A good sleeper RB/D could be Pitt.

 

[KarmaPolice]

For gpps - also more reminders to have those secondary stacks and correlations in the LUS a good amount. 66% of the Milly makers have had at least one secondary stack in the LU this year. Most common secondary stack was Rb + opp WR in 75% of them. The other was a team superstack of Rb/WR/DT.

 

[FairWarning]

How much do the chalk stacks hit? Usually I play the single lineups to avoid the deep pockets of cleaning up.

 

[KarmaPolice]

How much do the chalk stacks hit? Usually I play the single lineups to avoid the deep pockets of cleaning up.

I don't remember seeing stats on that. Mostly just mention of needing at least 1 spot with a player that is 5% owned or less, because obviously you want stand out a bit to avoid splitting pots. But chalk is chalk for a reason, so you also probably aren't going to have great success having an entire LU of 5% owned or less players.

Honestly, I think it's more about overall ownership. IE for DK i think a good total is a LU with 90-110% ownership when you add them all up. So like for tomorrow, if you are playing Allen/Diggs/Andrews and Herbert/J.Williams in a LU, that is already at about 110-120%, so you for sure would want some super low owned darts after that. A different way to do it is to fill out a LU with all 8-12% owned players.

 

[FairWarning]

How much do the chalk stacks hit? Usually I play the single lineups to avoid the deep pockets of cleaning up.

I don't remember seeing stats on that. Mostly just mention of needing at least 1 spot with a player that is 5% owned or less, because obviously you want stand out a bit to avoid splitting pots. But chalk is chalk for a reason, so you also probably aren't going to have great success having an entire LU of 5% owned or less players.

Honestly, I think it's more about overall ownership. IE for DK i think a good total is a LU with 90-110% ownership when you add them all up. So like for tomorrow, if you are playing Allen/Diggs/Andrews and Herbert/J.Williams in a LU, that is already at about 110-120%, so you for sure would want some super low owned darts after that. A different way to do it is to fill out a LU with all 8-12% owned players.

Actually a good way to win money - if you like a dog, play the captains showdown lineups and stack it with the dogs. I won one outright a couple of years for $2000ish.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I'm following the field with J Williams in Detroit...and have some exposure to Josh Reynolds...but it feels sketchy to rely on Goff in the absence of St Brown and Swift.

Similarly not thrilled with Herbert versus 8 in the box, so I probably have more Taylor / Barkley and Taylor / Hunt stacks than most.

Williams, Hunt, Herbert, etc. allow for spending up for some strong WR plays when not paying up for a top QB.

I like Tonyan vs NE...extremely cheap.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Didn't see anything started and I was surprised. I just started looking through stuff for the week.

One thing that stuck out for gpps that I wanted to get out there is that there were 5 teams that were in the top 10 for Sack Potential and Rush Potential. I don't usually force the Rb/DT correlation, but when it pairs like that I take note. ALSO for this week, it helps because a few are the chalk RBs and their Ds are low owned. The teams were:

Chicago, Dallas, Det, Clev, NE.

Herbert and J.Williams are chalk this week, but those two DTs are at 2% or lower. Dallas is a popular D, but Zeke isn't highly owned. My favorite Chubb/Clev or even Hunt Clev as both pieces are low owned. NE I might try on FD if I am rolling out 100-150 LUs. That's a huge field gpp-only play.

On Fanduel both Elliott and Hunt appear severely underpriced. Or maybe I just want to mitigate exposure to what I fear may be bad chalk.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Trying 150 LUs on FD and going heavier on 2 games. 63% of the LUs are Allen or Lamar. 24% Carr, 11% Mariota. For leverage at RB, I really liked the Rbs in the ATL/Clev and GB/NE games. all pretty low owned, and Atl, Clev, NE are all in the top 5 for rush %.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I'm following the field with J Williams in Detroit...and have some exposure to Josh Reynolds...but it feels sketchy to rely on Goff in the absence of St Brown and Swift.

Similarly not thrilled with Herbert versus 8 in the box, so I probably have more Taylor / Barkley and Taylor / Hunt stacks than most.

Williams, Hunt, Herbert, etc. allow for spending up for some strong WR plays when not paying up for a top QB.

I like Tonyan vs NE...extremely cheap.

I have concerns about Det and their ability to do much without their top 2 guys. I have about what the field does on J.Williams, but I also have interest in Seattle D and Penny to leverage off of him too.

 

[FatNate]

Weather concerns in the NorthEast? Changing anyones mind on Phi/Buf/Balt?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Weather concerns in the NorthEast? Changing anyones mind on Phi/Buf/Balt?

Not me. I have been burned waaayy more when it comes to weather when I back off on it vs. if I just roll with it. On RG it looked like the one most concerning when it comes to possible decrease in score was the Chic/NYG game.

 

[FatNate]

Weather concerns in the NorthEast? Changing anyones mind on Phi/Buf/Balt?

Not me. I have been burned waaayy more when it comes to weather when I back off on it vs. if I just roll with it. On RG it looked like the one most concerning when it comes to possible decrease in score was the Chic/NYG game.

5pt drop in the total for buf/Balt and Phi/Jax this morning for betting purposes.

 

[FatNate]

Weather concerns in the NorthEast? Changing anyones mind on Phi/Buf/Balt?

Not me. I have been burned waaayy more when it comes to weather when I back off on it vs. if I just roll with it. On RG it looked like the one most concerning when it comes to possible decrease in score was the Chic/NYG game.

Make no mistake. I am still loading up. Just wanted to bring it up.

 

[EBF]

Firing one small GPP and 6-7 50/50s.

Core options for me this week:

QB - Revolving door of Allen / Murray / Lawrence / Carr / Wentz - Not loving any one play, so just going with a blend.
RB - Taylor / Saquon / Najee / Jacobs - Leaning on these backs hard, as I think all are value. Hunch that Jacobs finally has a big day today. We'll see.
WR - Pittman / Lamb / Sutton / London / Palmer - High target volume per cost. Seem like great 50/50 plays. Also have pieces of AJB, Metcalf, McLaurin.
TE - Pitts yet again, with Hockenson as my alternate.
DEF - Revolving door of IND, ATL, SEA, ARI, LV.

Basically went high $$$ at RB and supplemented with mid-level WRs with good target numbers.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Absolutely brutal week. We are talking cashing 10 out of 200 lineups bad....

 

[EBF]

Getting massacred as well. Unlikely to hit any cashes barring a late surprise.

Too many whiffs on Taylor, Pitts, and Palmer. Palmer just killed me everywhere this week, including redraft. 8 targets in W2. 10 targets in W3. 1 target today with Allen out. Yikes. Pitts is probably my most disappointing FF player so far this year. Just not producing.

I'm still up for the season, but might be done playing. Rankings have calcified and I'm noticing everyone gravitating towards the same ideas now. A lot of my 50/50 picks had crazy high ownership this week (Taylor, Saquon, Hockenson, Lamb, and London all around 50-75%). The edge feels very, very thin.

 

[FatNate]

This week I played some double ups and 50/50. Never again. Pay line is lower on the big tournaments which is usually pay back double your money. Appears double ups and 50/50 ‘cash’ games all trended at about 140pt payout where most multiple entry tournaments were around 125pts. For cash games I think the best method is pick head to head matches each week and single entry tournaments. I play FD only and thought I would share my observation. I won a little this week. I had one lineup get to 160pts. My player pool was good, but we all know it’s like winning the lottery picking the right combo with that player pool.

 

[ActionJackson68]

I keep finding myself in the 100 - 120 range. Always have 2 guys who produce like 4 points.

Need to get over this hump.

 

[Steeler]

Honestly, I think it's more about overall ownership. IE for DK i think a good total is a LU with 90-110% ownership when you add them all up.

This year I started tracking the DK milly maker total percentage for the winning rosters and I agree this is the range you want to target (small sample size for sure, but see chart below).

May of my initial builds are too low in terms of total roster percentage so I tweak them and start over.

%	Week	Year
???​	5​	2022​
121​	4​	2022​
83​	3​	2022​
110​	2​	2022​
112​	1​	2022​