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First Crack 2021 Rookie Picks

Zyphros

By Zyphros,
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Zyphros

Zyphros 2,029

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The name says it all. This is what I'm currently looking at for my own rankings. 

I prefer to go RB early and right now my RB1 is Javonte Williams. This is based on full PPR leagues and it only includes WR/RB. Kyle Pitts would definitely be a top8 selection though. 

1.01 - Javonte Williams

1.02 - Travis Etienne

1.03 - Najee Harris

1.04 - JaMarr Chase

1.05 Jaylen Waddle

1.06 Rondale Moore

1.07 DeVonta Smith

1.08 Chuba Hubbard

1.09 Tylan Wallace

1.10 Jermar Jefferson

1.11 Kenny Gainwell

1.12 Terrace Marshall

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socrates

It is hard not to get excited about Pitts, I will admit.  However, I have seen my share of sure-fire TE prospects never live up to the hype.  Johnny Mitchell was going to take the league by storm.  Ky

socrates

I will post my very early 2021 Dynasty Draft Board.  With the combine and individual workouts still to come, and landing spots yet to be determined, I know my board will undergo seismic shifts before

Dutch Kincade

I like to look at draft class over draft class to gauge strength.  Here is my current 20-21 versus what I thought of that class at this time last year: (all for dynasty) QB Lawrence Fields  

wgoldsph

wgoldsph 966

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Etienne kind of scares me.

Hubbard really scares me.

I'm scared of losing out on Pitts. I wonder how high he could possibly go.

Tylan Wallace looks scary...good in athleticism.

Why do they scare you? I was a big hubba guy last year.

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Andy Dufresne

Andy Dufresne 12,811

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Why do they scare you? I was a big hubba guy last year.

Etienne is explosive, but doesn't seem very physical.

1 hour ago, Mark Football said:

What do you like about Hubbard? He has always seemed a step slow to me. And he's not real physical.

Yup. He just doesn't look great, and he can't block.

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Boston

Boston 3,199

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I am super-high on Najee...he is 6'2", 230, runs a reported 4.45 40, is athletic and can run thru you, is good in the passing game, is very productive in college and was seen as the top recruit in the nation coming out of high school...he checks every box and IMO should be the first RB off the board.

Chris Olave has that Michael Thomas/Terry McLaurin vibe to me and is more productive than both of them were at OSU...I like him after Chase, Smith and Waddle and I think he is the type of polished route-runner that will contribute right away in the NFL.

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Buckna

Buckna 1,534

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, That one guy said:

What are the premium landing spots for RB next year?  ATL, SF, HOU, NYJ (lol), MIA?

HOU doesn’t have a pick in the first 2 rounds so they won’t be drafting one of the higher regarded prospects. Most likely restructure one or both of the DJ’s but who knows at this point with no coach or GM.

Edit: Miami is flush with picks, could easily afford to spend a high one on someone.

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Zyphros

Zyphros 2,029

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20 hours ago, Babooya said:

Rashod?

Not that big of a fan of his. He's alright from my first thoughts and I don't hate him. 

 

19 hours ago, Mingooch said:

Where do u think Trevor Lawrence will fall into this?  I know you didnt include QBs yet

2QB Lawrence is easily the 1.01. Non 2QB - I think I put him around 8? But that's very shaky.

16 hours ago, Boston said:

I am super-high on Najee...he is 6'2", 230, runs a reported 4.45 40, is athletic and can run thru you, is good in the passing game, is very productive in college and was seen as the top recruit in the nation coming out of high school...he checks every box and IMO should be the first RB off the board.

Chris Olave has that Michael Thomas/Terry McLaurin vibe to me and is more productive than both of them were at OSU...I like him after Chase, Smith and Waddle and I think he is the type of polished route-runner that will contribute right away in the NFL.

Najee looks really great. I worry a bit about his pass catching since he had to grow into that role in college. I hope he can continue that into the NFL, but my philosophy for RB's and catches are that if you're not special in that area, you're subject to being benched for those roles rather easily. Some coaches might still use them for that role even if they aren't very good at it though. It's very situation dependent to me.

As for Olave, I am not really a fan. I've seen some people say he's a very underrated guy, I just don't see anything special with him. Very "meh" type of prospect for what I look at. I can almost guarantee he won't be on any of my rosters. I'd rather have Surratt/Dyami/Seth Williams/Amon-Ra, at least right now. 

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Wu-banger

Wu-banger 113

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20 hours ago, That one guy said:

What are the premium landing spots for RB next year?  ATL, SF, HOU, NYJ (lol), MIA?

Pitt could be a prime landing spot. If they get a great talent falling to them they could look to move on from oft-injured Conner. After Miami , Atl and NYJ could be top production from a rookie. 

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Crippler

Crippler 172

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I love doing mocks for my dynasty league. So here is how it would go

 14 team Superflex, TE premium, IDP for different thoughts

  1. A - Trevor Lawrence
  2. A - Justin Fields
  3. B - Zach Wilson
  4. C- Trey Lance. QBs are Newton, Trubisky
  5. A - Kyle Pitts
  6. A- Jamar Chase
  7. B - Travis Etienne
  8. D- Jaylon Waddle
  9. E - Pat Friermuth. Best Te Everett
  10. B - Rashod Bateman
  11. E - Devonte Smith
  12. B - Najee Harris
  13. A - Rondale Moore
  14. D - Kyle Trask or Mac Jones. Draft dependant like most drafts are
  15. A - Javonte Williams
  16. B - Micah Parsons
  17. F - Brevin Jordan
  18. C - Terrance Marshall
  19. A - Dylan Moses
  20. D -  Chuba Hubbard
  21. A - Nick Bolton
  22. D - Tylan Wallace
  23. E - Zaven Collins
  24. A - Justyn Ross
  25. A -  Gregory Rousseau 
  26. G - Kenneth Gainwell
  27. B - Carlos Basham
  28. H - Kwity Page

interesting that A has 5 of the next 6 picks also. 

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Truebluey

Truebluey 485

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On 12/10/2020 at 1:26 PM, Zyphros said:

The name says it all. This is what I'm currently looking at for my own rankings. 

I prefer to go RB early and right now my RB1 is Javonte Williams. This is based on full PPR leagues and it only includes WR/RB. Kyle Pitts would definitely be a top8 selection though. 

1.01 - Javonte Williams

1.02 - Travis Etienne

1.03 - Najee Harris

1.04 - JaMarr Chase

1.05 Jaylen Waddle

1.06 Rondale Moore

1.07 DeVonta Smith

1.08 Chuba Hubbard

1.09 Tylan Wallace

1.10 Jermar Jefferson

1.11 Kenny Gainwell

1.12 Terrace Marshall

Seems like DeVonta Smith will go higher than 1.07, but I've been wrong before.

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Zyphros

Zyphros 2,029

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18 minutes ago, Truebluey said:

Seems like DeVonta Smith will go higher than 1.07, but I've been wrong before.

It’ll be pretty much impossible for him to go higher on my list at least. The only way is if he absolutely destroys the combine and everyone else above him bombs it. 

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PantherThunder

PantherThunder 41

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On 12/11/2020 at 5:05 PM, Crippler said:

I love doing mocks for my dynasty league. So here is how it would go

 14 team Superflex, TE premium, IDP for different thoughts

  1. A - Trevor Lawrence
  2. A - Justin Fields
  3. B - Zach Wilson
  4. C- Trey Lance. QBs are Newton, Trubisky
  5. A - Kyle Pitts
  6.  

I have the 5th pick, figure it will come down between the 4th QB, 1st RB, or 1st WR depending on where everyone lands. Had not considered Pitts that high, but I will have to start. 

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Tornacl

Tornacl 64

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1 hour ago, PantherThunder said:

I have the 5th pick, figure it will come down between the 4th QB, 1st RB, or 1st WR depending on where everyone lands. Had not considered Pitts that high, but I will have to start. 

I don't do any Superflex leagues, but I'm very interested to see where Pitts ends up going off the board.  Normally, I wouldn't consider a QB or TE until the very end of the 1st round, but don't think Pitts will be around at the end of the 1st.

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FUBAR

FUBAR 3,203

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On 12/11/2020 at 4:05 PM, Crippler said:

I love doing mocks for my dynasty league. So here is how it would go

 14 team Superflex, TE premium, IDP for different thoughts

  1. A - Trevor Lawrence
  2. A - Justin Fields
  3. B - Zach Wilson
  4. C- Trey Lance. QBs are Newton, Trubisky
  5. A - Kyle Pitts
  6. A- Jamar Chase
  7. B - Travis Etienne
  8. D- Jaylon Waddle
  9. E - Pat Friermuth. Best Te Everett
  10. B - Rashod Bateman
  11. E - Devonte Smith
  12. B - Najee Harris

Similar format but with 12 teams. I have the 4th and I think 8th picks. I'd love to get Lance at the 4 but suspect the top 3 in SF or 2qb leagues will be Trev, fields and Lance. I'm not quite as big on Wilson but could be convinced. I don't really need a QB (Watson, tannehill and trubisky) but it's tough to pass on a qb in these leagues. Javonte at 4 could work well imo. Definitely targeting najee at 8 and I think he's available there in these leagues. He'll drop some in ppr. 

I'm curious to see what people are willing to give for the 1 in SF or 2qb leagues. Does the 4 and 8 get it in most leagues? 

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King of the Jungle

King of the Jungle 1,435

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34 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

Similar format but with 12 teams. I have the 4th and I think 8th picks. I'd love to get Lance at the 4 but suspect the top 3 in SF or 2qb leagues will be Trev, fields and Lance. I'm not quite as big on Wilson but could be convinced. I don't really need a QB (Watson, tannehill and trubisky) but it's tough to pass on a qb in these leagues. Javonte at 4 could work well imo. Definitely targeting najee at 8 and I think he's available there in these leagues. He'll drop some in ppr. 

I'm curious to see what people are willing to give for the 1 in SF or 2qb leagues. Does the 4 and 8 get it in most leagues? 

Value varies greatly between leagues. In SF Lawrence is a clear #1 though and one of the better prospects to come out at his position in awhile. You may be able to swing that trade now but as we get closer to the draft I think you would have to pay more. Of course you run the very slight risk of him returning to school now.

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Boston

Boston 3,199

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14 hours ago, PantherThunder said:

I have the 5th pick, figure it will come down between the 4th QB, 1st RB, or 1st WR depending on where everyone lands. Had not considered Pitts that high, but I will have to start. 

The other thing to consider with regard to Pitts' value is the timing...TE has been a messy position this year and that could possibly convince some owners who may not usually value the position to think otherwise...if anyone is targeting Pitts this year I would not get "cute" trying to obtain him because you may miss out.

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PantherThunder

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13 hours ago, Boston said:

The other thing to consider with regard to Pitts' value is the timing...TE has been a messy position this year and that could possibly convince some owners who may not usually value the position to think otherwise...if anyone is targeting Pitts this year I would not get "cute" trying to obtain him because you may miss out.

I try to set my draft board before the NFL draft. I will adjust a little bit based on when/where someone goes. 

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Aznflyer14

Aznflyer14 119

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On 12/12/2020 at 5:07 PM, Truebluey said:

Seems like DeVonta Smith will go higher than 1.07, but I've been wrong before.

I see Devonta and JaMarr Chase being tied as #1 ranked WR.  The only thing that worries me is Smith's playing weight (175 lbs).  He'll get jammed and pressed a lot in NFL whereas Chase has strength to fend them off.  

Now what about RB?  Think Etienne is preemptive favorite for #1 pick in rookie draft?  I also like Najee Harris. 

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Zyphros

Zyphros 2,029

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On 12/13/2020 at 9:14 AM, humpback said:

Curious, where would people slot this year's prospects vs. last year?

It's simply too early for me to figure that out. My list for 2020 at this time last year was definitely not something worth comparing. Overall it was solid like who the top10 or so were, but the order was very skrewy. Likely the same for this year at this moment. I'm fairly confident with my top12 overall, but the order is going to drastically change once draft time comes. 

This class looks just as good at WR, not quite as deep I'd say, and probably slightly worse at RB and again not as deep. 

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Dutch Kincade

Dutch Kincade 8

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

This class looks just as good at WR, not quite as deep I'd say, and probably slightly worse at RB and again not as deep. 

I like to look at draft class over draft class to gauge strength.  Here is my current 20-21 versus what I thought of that class at this time last year:
(all for dynasty)

QB
Lawrence
Fields
  Burrow
  Tua
Lance
  Herbert
Wilson
  Love
Jones
Trask
  Eason

RB
Harris
  Taylor
Etienne  
  Swift
  Dobbins
Williams  
  CEH
  Akers
Hubbard
Jermar
  Vaughn
   Moss

WR
Chase  
  Jeudy
  Lamb
Devonta
  Jefferson
Waddle
  Reagor
Bateman
  Ruggs
  Higgins

TE
Pitts
Freiermuth
<<a small wasteland of space>>
Jordan
<<a large wasteland of space>>
Kmet
Trautman


Your mileage may vary, and I'd love to see it...





 

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sushinsky4tsar

sushinsky4tsar 31

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I have a couple of picks in the mid-2nd and 3rd.   Nothing in the 1st.   Basically, great WR territory when I'm already loaded at the position.   I will almost always hit RB if there's any whiff of opportunity or talent, but it doesn't sound like the depth is great this season to make that profitable in the back half of the 2nd.  A backup QB and a third TE are in play.   I won't get a whiff of Lawrence, Fields, or Pitts.

Does Freiermuth have Hockenson levels of fantasy receiving upside, and do you think he will be a guy that can be plugged into lineups year one?   There's zero reason to stash away TEs that won't contribute in the passing game until Year 3 in my league's format.   

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Biabreakable

Biabreakable 5,179

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37 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

How about some love for those of us who traded away our 1-2 picks. What are my 3rd round bargains? :whistle:

Shirley this is way too early for this kind of a question. As Zyphros said upthread, he isn't cofident in the order of the top 12 here yet, just that he thinks those players will be top 12.

There is a lot to be sorted before we get to paupers like you.

Who do you think will be overlooked 24 times at least but still be worth picking?

Edited by Biabreakable
spell check is better for society than the absence of it
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Zyphros

Zyphros 2,029

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

That is exactly what I want to know’ :rant:

The only guy's I could see going under the radar that could be had later is Sage Surratt or Dyami Brown. At least right now. I expect both to rise through the process though. 

Sage because he sat out 2020 season, but he's so good in my own personal view. I see nobody else hyping him up. If you haven't learned by now, I love planting my flag on under appreciated guys. I think this year that's Sage Surratt. 

I think lots of people just push Dyami Brown down because UNC was overall just that good. Kind of like the light version of LSU in 2019. Lots of talent all around and they'll have one hell of a draft class in 2020. He's 21, had 1000 yds in back to back seasons and is the best of that teams bunch at WR. I've seen some hype for Dazz Newsome who I don't think can even be a WR4 on an NFL roster, so that leaves me to believe Dyami is underappreciated. 

Lots of people would prefer a few others like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, Seth Williams, Tutu Atwell or others, and I have Dyami bunched in with them, I do however have Sage Surratt ahead of all of them. Dyami pops the most out of that group to me, but he's 2nd among the guys I just listed to Seth Williams. But that could easily change. 

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Boston

Boston 3,199

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As for overlooked...I have not heard Michael Carter's name mentioned too much as far as the draft goes...kid looks very legit both running and receiving...definitely someone I could see getting more notoriety as this process goes fourth.

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Buckna

Buckna 1,534

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2 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

PIT might be in the market given the lack of production at the position. I wonder if CIN has grown weary of Mixon's injury history. Might Carroll be in the market?

Cinci just gave Mixon a big extension 3 months ago.

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