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First Crack 2021 Rookie Picks (1 Viewer)

What are the premium landing spots for RB next year?  ATL, SF, HOU, NYJ (lol), MIA?
Im not sure if Hou is actually a good spot, they don't target the RB a ton

Sure. I'd add AZ, SEA and PIT. They don't have a need per se, but I think there is room for a new back to come in and take over. 
I agree, esp Pitt

I think Id rank them Pit, Atl, NYJ, SF, Mia, Sea, Den, Bills

The last 5 could be better than it looks rn, they just need more targets to the RB or the potential of a workhorse opportunity.

 
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Najee looks really great. I worry a bit about his pass catching since he had to grow into that role in college. I hope he can continue that into the NFL, but my philosophy for RB's and catches are that if you're not special in that area, you're subject to being benched for those roles rather easily. Some coaches might still use them for that role even if they aren't very good at it though. It's very situation dependent to me.
:)  🥱

Only 4TDs and a few yards in the first half of the SEC championship game :shrug:

and he looks pretty good catching the rock.

 
I thought that Florida vs Alabama game was basically dynasty scouting porn.  We enter that game with what I viewed as 4 likely first round dynasty picks this year and each and every one of those 4 played great and showed you exactly why they are first rounds picks. Getting that in a game with big  December game with heavy implications against SEC D's was awesome.

For me, I can't see how anyone can watch that game and not consider Najee Harris the 1.1 at least until or if the actual draft landing spots change the way people value them. Size, speed, good movement and most of all his growth as a receiver makes this a pretty easy call to me unless you are someone who prefers to draft a WR.

I also can't see how anyone watches that game and comes away thinking that despite his size Devonta Smith should not merit at least consideration for WR1. Well, that game or just any game from Devonta. This is not a knock on Chase in the slightest.

 
I thought that Florida vs Alabama game was basically dynasty scouting porn.  We enter that game with what I viewed as 4 likely first round dynasty picks this year and each and every one of those 4 played great and showed you exactly why they are first rounds picks. Getting that in a game with big  December game with heavy implications against SEC D's was awesome.

For me, I can't see how anyone can watch that game and not consider Najee Harris the 1.1 at least until or if the actual draft landing spots change the way people value them. Size, speed, good movement and most of all his growth as a receiver makes this a pretty easy call to me unless you are someone who prefers to draft a WR.

I also can't see how anyone watches that game and comes away thinking that despite his size Devonta Smith should not merit at least consideration for WR1. Well, that game or just any game from Devonta. This is not a knock on Chase in the slightest.
Yup. Harris is #1 for me, PPR or not.

 
I thought that Florida vs Alabama game was basically dynasty scouting porn.  We enter that game with what I viewed as 4 likely first round dynasty picks this year and each and every one of those 4 played great and showed you exactly why they are first rounds picks. Getting that in a game with big  December game with heavy implications against SEC D's was awesome.

For me, I can't see how anyone can watch that game and not consider Najee Harris the 1.1 at least until or if the actual draft landing spots change the way people value them. Size, speed, good movement and most of all his growth as a receiver makes this a pretty easy call to me unless you are someone who prefers to draft a WR.

I also can't see how anyone watches that game and comes away thinking that despite his size Devonta Smith should not merit at least consideration for WR1. Well, that game or just any game from Devonta. This is not a knock on Chase in the slightest.
I have made my crush on Harris known for a few years...the question I have is what can you knock him on?  He is the complete package...when you look at the end of the first round there are a few teams that could take their O to another level with him in the Bills and Steelers and I think the Dolphins could do a lot worse than reuniting him with Tua...I'm just glad the Chiefs used a #1 on CEH last year because if they didn't and took Najee this year it just wouldn't be fair...as for Smith he just reminds me so much of Marvin Harrison...and you're right, he looks good every time you see him play...on a Super-flex/2 QB note it will be real interesting to see where both Jones and Trask go...I think it is easy to knock Jones because of the talent he plays with but he is extremely accurate and just looks like a leader...as a Pats fan I would love to know what Saban is telling his buddy BB about him because the Pats have a big QB for hire sign in their window right now. 

 
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Curious, where would people slot this year's prospects vs. last year?
I haven’t done a deep dive but my sense is the QB position is deeper and better this year. As hyperbolic as it sounds the QB has a chance to be on par with ‘83. Lawrence appears to be a generational talent. And there are 4 others that have a chance to have long, successful NFL careers.

The RB class doesn’t appear as deep but I think Najee Harris is better than anyone in last year’s class.

Chase, Smith and Waddle appear to be stars in waiting in a WR that might be as deep as last year.

TE is much better this class, lead by Pitts.

 
I like to look at draft class over draft class to gauge strength.  Here is my current 20-21 versus what I thought of that class at this time last year:
(all for dynasty)

QB
Lawrence
Fields
  Burrow
  Tua
Lance
  Herbert
Wilson
  Love
Jones
Trask
  Eason

RB
Harris
  Taylor
Etienne  
  Swift
  Dobbins
Williams  
  CEH
  Akers
Hubbard
Jermar
  Vaughn
   Moss

WR
Chase  
  Jeudy
  Lamb
Devonta
  Jefferson
Waddle
  Reagor
Bateman
  Ruggs
  Higgins

TE
Pitts
Freiermuth
<<a small wasteland of space>>
Jordan
<<a large wasteland of space>>
Kmet
Trautman

Your mileage may vary, and I'd love to see it...
How does Ruggs make the list, but no Aiyuk, Claypool etc? Oof

 
Updated version:

1.01 - Javonte Williams

1.02 - Najee Harris

1.03 - Travis Etienne

1.04 - JaMarr Chase

1.05 - Jaylen Waddle

1.06 - Chuba Hubbard 

1.07 - Tylan Wallace

1.08 -  Kylin Hill

1.09 - Kyle Pitts

1.10 -  Sage Surratt

1.11 - Jermar Jefferson

1.12 - Rashod Bateman

That's currently how my rankings would be sorted. I loved Tylan Wallace last year, love Sage Surratt this year, and I just simply want to take them ahead of Bateman and a certain Alabama guy in the next grouping. Let the fun begin. 

Next grouping after 1.12 - Kenny Gainwell, Davonta Smith, Rondale Moore, Elijah Mitchell, Terrace Marshall, Zonovan Knight (might not declare), Brian Robinson Jr., Trey Sermon, Seth Williams, Dyami Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zamir White (might not declare), 

A few fallers from the last posting here: Devonta Smith, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, Kenny Gainwell. Those are the main ones that went from being on the top12 to outside of it. Devonta Smith because of his size, age, and because I see very little nuance in what he does other than his release if he's being pressed. That's about the only part I like about his game. Rondale Moore fell because of size concerns, although he's more well rounded, I think he's very situation dependent and could get the Tavon Austin treatment. Terrace Marshall drops purely for the reason that I like others more. And Gainwell is down because I'm not sure if he's a feature workload type of RB since he's listed at 191 lbs. Pre-draft process will effect his ranking a lot. Gains weight, proves speed still, just as good in drills as he was on tape. He's so exciting for what could be but he's not a finished product. 

 
I haven’t done a deep dive but my sense is the QB position is deeper and better this year. As hyperbolic as it sounds the QB has a chance to be on par with ‘83. Lawrence appears to be a generational talent. And there are 4 others that have a chance to have long, successful NFL careers.

The RB class doesn’t appear as deep but I think Najee Harris is better than anyone in last year’s class.

Chase, Smith and Waddle appear to be stars in waiting in a WR that might be as deep as last year.

TE is much better this class, lead by Pitts.
Good summary.

In hindsight last years RB class might could put itself in consideration with the 2017 and 2008 class as an all-time great class and that's were we will see a severe dropoff this year. I even struggle trying to sort out where I'd take last years RB class if I was ranking them today.  In no particular order CEH, Taylor, Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Gibson and James Robinson is one heck of a class and some others might still materialize. 

Also with how good the WR class was last year, plus Herbert and Hurts who at least looks like a big time fantasy player if he keeps the job I find myself wondering if when it's said and done the 2020 class will go down as best class in modern era for fantasy football? I think it will because in the 10 years of so I've been playing dynasty I think it's the best and deepest class at the key spots, RB and WR with some good QB's mixed in.

 
As for Olave, I am not really a fan. I've seen some people say he's a very underrated guy, I just don't see anything special with him. Very "meh" type of prospect for what I look at. I can almost guarantee he won't be on any of my rosters. I'd rather have Surratt/Dyami/Seth Williams/Amon-Ra, at least right now. 
He's putting on a good show tonight. Not doing his standing any harm.

 
Fields is a tough kid. No way he doesn’t have something broken after that hit and he is still out there throwing touchdowns.
One thing I am impressed with is he will run up field on plays and try to get involved as a blocker, sometimes pretty far down field...love the effort.

 
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Devonta Smith moves like an elite NFL receiver, so quick and smooth. Only concern is his legs look like a strong wind could bend them.
Will be saying it a 1,000 more times this offseason but Smith reminds me so much of Marvin Harrison...Olave was productive again last night, the kid just knows how to play the position...I feel strongly that he will be a very good NFL WR...could end up being one of the better bangs for your buck in rookie drafts.

 
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Seems like a lot of people down on Smith, why? 

Not being confrontational, just, educate me please.

He's been insanely productive in the SEC.  He has done a lot with run after the catch.  He makes tough catches in the endzone.  

He's small, but seems to consistently use his craftiness/shiftiness to get of the line.  

 
Seems like a lot of people down on Smith, why? 

Not being confrontational, just, educate me please.

He's been insanely productive in the SEC.  He has done a lot with run after the catch.  He makes tough catches in the endzone.  

He's small, but seems to consistently use his craftiness/shiftiness to get of the line.  
Not sure I've seen any of that, honestly. :shrug:

 
Seems like a lot of people down on Smith, why? 

Not being confrontational, just, educate me please.

He's been insanely productive in the SEC.  He has done a lot with run after the catch.  He makes tough catches in the endzone.  

He's small, but seems to consistently use his craftiness/shiftiness to get of the line.  
Metrics people will be down on Smith. I don't agree with them. There's more to good eval than just metrics and he passes every single one of those other tests. 

 
Is that the hurdle? Forget it, this guy is number one overall in rookie drafts barring a combine collapse. I thought maybe Etienne, Chase, somebody else, and he'd fall to me at 1.04. But no way.
Yeah, I've got the #3 in a couple of leagues, and I was expecting him to be there, but not anymore.  This is going to be a very solid 1st round, although the later rounds won't compete with last year's insane depth.

 
Not sure I've seen any of that, honestly. :shrug:
The OP updated his rankings and has Smith outside the top 12.  

Someone in the Devonta Smith thread said nothing about him screams high end NFL WR.  

I guess it's not a lot of people.  I think Smith and Chase are 1A and 1B in some order.  I'm surprised to see people have him outside of their top 12 and such.  

People have posted there is nothing special about him.  The guy had 1600 and 20 TD's in the SEC.  And, sure, college stats don't translate.  But that's ridiculous production in one of the best conferences.  

He runs good routes.  He has HUGE run after the catch plays--against elite competition.  He makes difficult catches in the end-zone.  

The only knock I can see is his weight.  But he's amazing at getting off the line.  

Situation will probably decide who I rank higher in terms of Chase vs Smith.  But if the world is down on Smith and he makes it to me, I'll snatch him up every time.

 
Yeah, I've got the #3 in a couple of leagues, and I was expecting him to be there, but not anymore.  This is going to be a very solid 1st round, although the later rounds won't compete with last year's insane depth.
I don't agree. I think this year's second round will likely be similarly as strong as last. Both of these classes were prime for loading up on as many top 20-25 picks you can get. 

 
Najee Harris is gonna be a stud in the NFL:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpVntBdZ4Bk
Great play but to me it also brings up the biggest negative on Najee. That play was his only 50+ yard run or reception in his collegiate career.

He's my early frontrunner for 1.1 so not coming here to knock him. I recall a similar gripe about Leveon Bell coming into the league, I for sure recall a lot of people saying he was a plodder and maybe had he not radically changed his body they'd have been right.

Breakaway speed and being just a little taller then I usually prefer are my only knocks right now on him.

 
I don't agree. I think this year's second round will likely be similarly as strong as last. Both of these classes were prime for loading up on as many top 20-25 picks you can get. 
I've said this a few times in last few weeks but last years class was top two in last 10 years for both RB's and WR's. When you combine that depth at the two most critical positions in non-SF fantasy you won't be beating that this year or probably any year coming up and I would in fact label it the best overall class, and easily so, in the 10 years I've been doing dynasty.

 
If Chase lasts until spot number four, I'll be ecstatic, Chuck.
Agreed. Chase is the #1 overall FF prospect in my book. A superior talent to the remarkable Justin Jefferson. Top end of RB class is good, not great. Chase will be great. I'll take him #1 everywhere, regardless of landing spot. He will be a FF WR1 soon. 

 
I've said this a few times in last few weeks but last years class was top two in last 10 years for both RB's and WR's. When you combine that depth at the two most critical positions in non-SF fantasy you won't be beating that this year or probably any year coming up and I would in fact label it the best overall class, and easily so, in the 10 years I've been doing dynasty.
You and I probably don't agree on this year's wr class. I agree about the rb depth, but it's made up for at te. Last year literally had none and that is very clearly not the case this year. 

 
Harris is the front runner for me right now but I may put the names Harris, Smith, Chase, and Williams in a hat and pick one.

I wish Elijah Moore was playing today.

 
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Seems like a lot of people down on Smith, why?  
Size in and of itself and speed what will likely be solid but when combined with the size not exactly jaw dropping. Jim Nagy said he had Devonta as a high 4.4 range at a pro day in spring of his Soph. year. If that holds you currently got a high 4.4 guy who goes about 175 pounds.

As for me if my life depended on taking a successful pick in my dynasty rookie draft I'd take him.

 
You and I probably don't agree on this year's wr class. I agree about the rb depth, but it's made up for at te. Last year literally had none and that is very clearly not the case this year. 
I doubt the bolded is true actually but you can't just dismiss last years RB class with a throw away line. That class was all time great, has a legit chance to rival 2017 and 2008 before that as best ever.

As for TE I mainly play FFPC so value TE but it's just not premium a position to make up for the ### whipping last years RB class has on this years.

 
Devonta Smith moves like an elite NFL receiver, so quick and smooth. Only concern is his legs look like a strong wind could bend them.
Agreed. I may be in the minority, but I have Chase #1 and Smith #2 overall in my rookie rankings and would take both over any RB is this class. I forsee both being WR1s for many years. I'd take Chase over any WR from last year's stellar class, and take Smith only after Lamb and Jefferson if combining the cohorts.

 
 I may be in the minority, but I have Chase #1 and Smith #2 overall in my rookie rankings and would take both over any RB is this class.
I agree with you they are the two best players. I have pick 1.1 in two leagues and right now I'd take Najee and in general I hope when it's all said and done I feel good enough about a RB to select one at 1.1 but that has to do with positional scarcity/need, these are the two best players to me.

 
I doubt the bolded is true actually but you can't just dismiss last years RB class with a throw away line. That class was all time great, has a legit chance to rival 2017 and 2008 before that as best ever.

As for TE I mainly play FFPC so value TE but it's just not premium a position to make up for the ### whipping last years RB class has on this years.
Well, my comment was in regards to depth. Last year's tier 1 at rb being better than this year's tier 1 does not matter so long as this year's tier 1 is a worthwhile investment in the top 20 or so. And I think they are. 

 
I agree with you they are the two best players. I have pick 1.1 in two leagues and right now I'd take Najee and in general I hope when it's all said and done I feel good enough about a RB to select one at 1.1 but that has to do with positional scarcity/need, these are the two best players to me.
I think a lot of people in dynasty drafts sometimes put too much premium on this type statement.  For dynasty I believe you take the best player on your board regardless of your roster construction.  The only position that gets some bump due to position is QB in 2QB leagues because the draft is the only way you can a young QB if they are any good.

Other than that the draft is a crapshoot and the only "win" is if you get a FF multi year starter with your pick and it doesn't really matter what position.  Taking a RB first because he is a RB but a lesser talent doesn't do you any good if he doesn't hit.  Even if you don't need WR but you get one that hits you win.  

I really have gone away from worrying about the position a rookie plays and just go with the guy I think has the most chance to succeed.   I have had a lot more success this way.

 
Well, my comment was in regards to depth. Last year's tier 1 at rb being better than this year's tier 1 does not matter so long as this year's tier 1 is a worthwhile investment in the top 20 or so. And I think they are. 
Yes I'm also talking about depth and positions are not on an island, they work together to create depth. The strength of depth of last years RB class helped create depth at WR because it pushed so many of them the board.

 
I think a lot of people in dynasty drafts sometimes put too much premium on this type statement.  For dynasty I believe you take the best player on your board regardless of your roster construction.  The only position that gets some bump due to position is QB in 2QB leagues because the draft is the only way you can a young QB if they are any good.
Some validity to what you said but I can't get behind it as a blanket statement.  To many variables at play but I'd only bore people talking about my specifics. But short version when you got more WR's then you know what to do with, when you league is not trading for WR's and when that is combined with needing another RB I don't think need should be ignored.

 
I think a lot of people in dynasty drafts sometimes put too much premium on this type statement.  For dynasty I believe you take the best player on your board regardless of your roster construction.  The only position that gets some bump due to position is QB in 2QB leagues because the draft is the only way you can a young QB if they are any good.

Other than that the draft is a crapshoot and the only "win" is if you get a FF multi year starter with your pick and it doesn't really matter what position.  Taking a RB first because he is a RB but a lesser talent doesn't do you any good if he doesn't hit.  Even if you don't need WR but you get one that hits you win.  

I really have gone away from worrying about the position a rookie plays and just go with the guy I think has the most chance to succeed.   I have had a lot more success this way.
I agree with this.  

I took Henderson a few years ago because I was the Gurley owner despite AJ Brown falling to me and having AJ Brown higher.  Regret the hell out of it.  

And sure, I'm singing a different tune if Henderson had been a hit.  But the reality of it was--I was pretty certain Brown was going to hit.  

 
Some validity to what you said but I can't get behind it as a blanket statement.  To many variables at play but I'd only bore people talking about my specifics. But short version when you got more WR's then you know what to do with, when you league is not trading for WR's and when that is combined with needing another RB I don't think need should be ignored.
This is a good point too.

A lot of leagues don't trade a ton.  And there's almost a tax on RB's.  

In one league, I had crap for WR's, and then through trades/drafts the last 3 years have gotten to the point of having Hill/Ridley/McLaurin/Lamb/Higgins/Mims.  But you can't pry a decent RB away from anyone for a WR package.  

Also people often seem way more content with their crappy WR's.

All that said--You still are better off with 6 WR's that are good than 4 WR's that are good and Darrell Henderson+Darwin Thompson.

If you've got two guys similar or the same--sure, go running back.  But I had Lamb>Akers last year.  I think Lamb will be a WR1 for several years.  Akers may be really good.  But I've always been confident Lamb would be a star.  I can't pull the trigger on the lesser running back just because he plays the position.

 
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Some validity to what you said but I can't get behind it as a blanket statement.  To many variables at play but I'd only bore people talking about my specifics. But short version when you got more WR's then you know what to do with, when you league is not trading for WR's and when that is combined with needing another RB I don't think need should be ignored.
It's exactly because there are too many variables at play that taking the player you think has the best opportunity to succeed regardless of position will serve you better in the long run than taking a lesser player just because you need that position.  

That being said, there are no guarantees and if you miss on an evaluation then the perceived lesser player could be the better guy but you cannot plan that way.   For me I would rather trust my evaluation and process and go with the guy I think is better regardless of position.

 
This is a good point too.

A lot of leagues don't trade a ton.  And there's almost a tax on RB's.  
But leagues trade even less for players that don't hit.

The only wins in a draft are getting multi year FF starters.   Forcing a position lessens this from happening if you evaluate well.

 
But leagues trade even less for players that don't hit.

The only wins in a draft are getting multi year FF starters.   Forcing a position lessens this from happening if you evaluate well.
Agreed.  I went on to say you're better off with 6 good WR's than 4 good WR's and 2 misses at RB.  

It's a lesson learned the hard way sometimes haha.

 
I think a lot of people in dynasty drafts sometimes put too much premium on this type statement.  For dynasty I believe you take the best player on your board regardless of your roster construction.  The only position that gets some bump due to position is QB in 2QB leagues because the draft is the only way you can a young QB if they are any good.

Other than that the draft is a crapshoot and the only "win" is if you get a FF multi year starter with your pick and it doesn't really matter what position.  Taking a RB first because he is a RB but a lesser talent doesn't do you any good if he doesn't hit.  Even if you don't need WR but you get one that hits you win.  

I really have gone away from worrying about the position a rookie plays and just go with the guy I think has the most chance to succeed.   I have had a lot more success this way.
I know what you're saying and I don't disagree so much as I do think the position scarcity of RB in particular can sway the decision. *If* the talent difference is small enough. It is one thing to say one prefers WR X or Y over RB A based on talent, but that doesn't mean the gap is so large as to make it a slam dunk. 

If it is a marginal call, and it often is, I have no issue whatsoever in going RB as a tiebreaker. I don't have an opinion yet on Chase and Smith vs any of the RBs yet, but if I need RBs I need RBs. I have many teams that are stacked at WR but I do have a couple where I love my RB corps and will probably go with WR as a tiebreaker if the talent gap is marginal.

 
Some validity to what you said but I can't get behind it as a blanket statement.  To many variables at play but I'd only bore people talking about my specifics. But short version when you got more WR's then you know what to do with, when you league is not trading for WR's and when that is combined with needing another RB I don't think need should be ignored.
Yep

 
But leagues trade even less for players that don't hit.
But you must admit that's a pretty big jump you are making assuming a RB chosen at 1.1 is not a hit. Keep in mind I said that "I hope" a RB is worthy of being 1.1 when all is said and done, I did not say just pick any old random RB.

But while on the subject I struggle to think of a RB that was selected 1.1 that did not hold considerable trade value at minimum heading into their second season.

 
It's exactly because there are too many variables at play that taking the player you think has the best opportunity to succeed regardless of position will serve you better in the long run than taking a lesser player just because you need that position.  

That being said, there are no guarantees and if you miss on an evaluation then the perceived lesser player could be the better guy but you cannot plan that way.   For me I would rather trust my evaluation and process and go with the guy I think is better regardless of position.
Again, I don't disagree. I think it is a very strong approach, really. I just think there are times the gap is so grey it is worth revisiting. However, if your process says the gap is wide, then I'm with you 100%. I guess a tier break would be considered wide enough, no? 

 

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