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First Crack 2021 Rookie Picks (1 Viewer)

Yeah, you have to look at your roster requirements and league tendencies too.

If you can start three WR max and you have five good ones, it doesn't always make sense to draft a sixth IF you need a RB AND your league mates won't trade. In that case you take the RB if it upgrades your starting lineup.

 
menobrown said:
But you must admit that's a pretty big jump you are making assuming a RB chosen at 1.1 is not a hit. Keep in mind I said that "I hope" a RB is worthy of being 1.1 when all is said and done, I did not say just pick any old random RB.

But while on the subject I struggle to think of a RB that was selected 1.1 that did not hold considerable trade value at minimum heading into their second season.
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I am not assuming anything.  My method is to do a combined draft board ranking all players amongst everyone.  Part of that is using tie breaks such as you have alluded to when two talents are close as that positional advantage/disadvantage is part of the ranking.  Its why I said that QB's is two QB leagues do get elevated quite a bit on the combined board because that scarcity is a huge component of the evaluation.

I think we are on the same page.  The whole point I was trying to bring out was that there are many owners that force a position because they need that position when a much better player should have been taken.  

Drafts are successful or not by making a combined draft board of all positions and then trusting your evaluation to follow your list.

 
Boston said:
Will be saying it a 1,000 more times this offseason but he reminds me so much of Marvin Harrison...Olave was productive again last night, the kid just knows how to play the position...I feel strongly that he will be a very good NFL WR...could end up being one of the better bangs for your buck in rookie drafts.
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Was really impressed last night.  Watching the highlights--he looks so smooth.  

I saw 1 mock with him sneaking into the end of the 1st round.  Wherever he falls, I'm hoping I can get him later in rookie drafts.

 
menobrown said:
Yes I'm also talking about depth and positions are not on an island, they work together to create depth. The strength of depth of last years RB class helped create depth at WR because it pushed so many of them the board.
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The same thing will happen this year, only the discounted names (and positions?) will be different.

 
Hey, I think you guys are striking at the core of some important rookie draft strategy here, not just for 2021 but beyond. Good work. I've managed to acquire 1.1, 1.2, and 1.8 in my 1QB 12 team dynasty league and though the 1st round WR talent for 2021 is seemingly greater/deeper than the RB/TE talent, my positional needs are mostly at RB and TE. The last time I had a top 3 pick, I chose Bishop Sankey and don't want to repeat that fiasco. hahaha  

The argument of drafting best available player over positional needs would seem to dictate taking two 2021 WR's with 1.1 & 1.2, but I just can't see that happening in my particular case. Not that I'm absolutely stacked at WR. I just don't have as big a need at that position. My thinking at this point is that ideally I come away with a top RB, WR, and Pitts with my first 3 picks. I'm thinking I need to take a RB with one of my first two picks, because they go quickly in my league. And if I really want to guarantee I get Pitts, I'm thinking I may need to take him with 1.2, and then go best available WR at 1.8, since WR is so deep. So if I go Najee and Pitts 1.2, 1.2 (for instance), that would be purely due to positional needs. The question then becomes, is there enough difference in future value between the top few WR's and the top RB/TE combo? Are there considerations here I've not taken into account? If you had 1.1 and 1.2, would you consider positional need more than you would if you only held one of those picks?

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
Hey, I think you guys are striking at the core of some important rookie draft strategy here, not just for 2021 but beyond. Good work. I've managed to acquire 1.1, 1.2, and 1.8 in my 1QB 12 team dynasty league and though the 1st round WR talent for 2021 is seemingly greater/deeper than the RB/TE talent, my positional needs are mostly at RB and TE. The last time I had a top 3 pick, I chose Bishop Sankey and don't want to repeat that fiasco. hahaha  

The argument of drafting best available player over positional needs would seem to dictate taking two 2021 WR's with 1.1 & 1.2, but I just can't see that happening in my particular case. Not that I'm absolutely stacked at WR. I just don't have as big a need at that position. My thinking at this point is that ideally I come away with a top RB, WR, and Pitts with my first 3 picks. I'm thinking I need to take a RB with one of my first two picks, because they go quickly in my league. And if I really want to guarantee I get Pitts, I'm thinking I may need to take him with 1.2, and then go best available WR at 1.8, since WR is so deep. So if I go Najee and Pitts 1.2, 1.2 (for instance), that would be purely due to positional needs. The question then becomes, is there enough difference in future value between the top few WR's and the top RB/TE combo? Are there considerations here I've not taken into account? If you had 1.1 and 1.2, would you consider positional need more than you would if you only held one of those picks?
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If you take Harris and Pitts you are not making an obvious draft for need move as you can make a very good case that they are the right picks...Harris has been discussed but Pitts really hasn't too much...he is the without a doubt the best TE prospect in quite sometime...the x-factor with him is if you look at the TE position it is a little thin these days...if Pitts is the real deal you could be in a spot where you won't have to worry about that position and could have a positional advantage for the foreseeable future and there is a lot to be said about that...while that could be looked at as kind of drafting for need I would almost call it drafting for positional advantage because in some ways TE is different than QB, RB and WR...now that is not a blanket statement for any good TE prospect but one with the potential of Pitts which is rare...with his skills he is not a reach at that spot.

Love the Bishop Sankey reference...that was such a bad year to have a top pick...the guy who took him in one of my league still mentions him every draft day.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Etienne kind of scares me.

Hubbard really scares me.

I'm scared of losing out on Pitts. I wonder how high he could possibly go.

Tylan Wallace looks scary...good in athleticism.
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I'm with you, man. I long ago locked into Etienne, but now I'm more about Harris. And I too wonder about how high Pitts could go and don't want to miss out on him. I am of the opinion he could go top 3 now based on the fact that I am seriously considering taking him at 1.2.

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
I'm with you, man. I long ago locked into Etienne, but now I'm more about Harris. And I too wonder about how high Pitts could go and don't want to miss out on him. I am of the opinion he could go top 3 now based on the fact that I am seriously considering taking him at 1.2.
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Same, except super flex so the top back or fields will be there and probably the better pick.

 
I covet Pitts too. But I would not draft him ahead of Ja'Marr Chase (or DeVonta Smith, and maybe a couple others too). I too have the 1 and 8 in a league where I'd like to draft him - I might take him at the 8. If he's gone before then...C'est la vie. 

There are only two TEs in the top THIRTY pass catchers in fantasy (regardless of PPR/non-PPR). So Pitts has to be probably top 3-ish to make it worth it. 

I get positional scarcity/mismatches/whatever, but I think you're better off taking the potentially elite WR/RB regardless. I would guess that of league winners this year, a non-majority less than a top TE on their roster.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I covet Pitts too. But I would not draft him ahead of Ja'Marr Chase (or DeVonta Smith, and maybe a couple others too). I too have the 1 and 8 in a league where I'd like to draft him - I might take him at the 8. If he's gone before then...C'est la vie. 

There are only two TEs in the top THIRTY pass catchers in fantasy (regardless of PPR/non-PPR). So Pitts has to be probably top 3-ish to make it worth it. 

I get positional scarcity/mismatches/whatever, but I think you're better off taking the potentially elite WR/RB regardless. I would guess that of league winners this year, a non-majority less than a top TE on their roster.
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Yeah, I'm with you. Originally, I was thinking Chase over Pitts, but I don't exactly have a warm and fuzzy owning Tonyan and Blake Jarwin, and figure at 1.8 I can get Rondale Moore or Rashod Bateman, a guy like that.

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
Hey, I think you guys are striking at the core of some important rookie draft strategy here, not just for 2021 but beyond. Good work. I've managed to acquire 1.1, 1.2, and 1.8 in my 1QB 12 team dynasty league and though the 1st round WR talent for 2021 is seemingly greater/deeper than the RB/TE talent, my positional needs are mostly at RB and TE. The last time I had a top 3 pick, I chose Bishop Sankey and don't want to repeat that fiasco. hahaha  

The argument of drafting best available player over positional needs would seem to dictate taking two 2021 WR's with 1.1 & 1.2, but I just can't see that happening in my particular case. Not that I'm absolutely stacked at WR. I just don't have as big a need at that position. My thinking at this point is that ideally I come away with a top RB, WR, and Pitts with my first 3 picks. I'm thinking I need to take a RB with one of my first two picks, because they go quickly in my league. And if I really want to guarantee I get Pitts, I'm thinking I may need to take him with 1.2, and then go best available WR at 1.8, since WR is so deep. So if I go Najee and Pitts 1.2, 1.2 (for instance), that would be purely due to positional needs. The question then becomes, is there enough difference in future value between the top few WR's and the top RB/TE combo? Are there considerations here I've not taken into account? If you had 1.1 and 1.2, would you consider positional need more than you would if you only held one of those picks?
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I'll start with the caveat that a lot can change with actual landing spots.  There will be risers and fallers, so you'll have to gauge the odds of Pitts dropping to the 1.8

Regardless of the number of picks, I don't see myself straying from BPA.  I would take two WRs.  However, I could go WR/TE, especially if Pitts were in a plus spot.  Bottom line is that I would be very happy with two elite prospects.

I don't want to be forced into taking a back...  I think the 1.8 lands the 4th best back, which could be quite serviceable.  

A lot to consider in the interim.  I would be looking at the cost of moving the 1.8 up a couple slots or even the chance of dropping back a pick or two from 1.2.

 
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toddthebountyhunter said:
Yeah, I'm with you. Originally, I was thinking Chase over Pitts, but I don't exactly have a warm and fuzzy owning Tonyan and Blake Jarwin, and figure at 1.8 I can get Rondale Moore or Rashod Bateman, a guy like that.
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I was really high on Bateman in 2019 but have to say he did not do anything that made me think 1st round FF rookie. I watched a few games and he seemed pretty invisible. I was more impressed by Tyler Johnson last year, who I took in the 4th round of my 2020 rookie draft. What am I missing here? 

 
BigJim® said:
I was really high on Bateman in 2019 but have to say he did not do anything that made me think 1st round FF rookie. I watched a few games and he seemed pretty invisible. I was more impressed by Tyler Johnson last year, who I took in the 4th round of my 2020 rookie draft. What am I missing here? 
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You almost have to throw out this season with some of these guys. Yet, everything I've seen projects Bateman as a 1st rounder NFL pick, so with that kind of draft capital, I gotta think he's someone to at least take look at in a 1st round FF rookie. 

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
You almost have to throw out this season with some of these guys. Yet, everything I've seen projects Bateman as a 1st rounder NFL pick, so with that kind of draft capital, I gotta think he's someone to at least take look at in a 1st round FF rookie. 
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I really, really, REALLY doubt that Bateman will be drafted in the first round. 

 
You could be 

Andy Dufresne said:
I really, really, REALLY doubt that Bateman will be drafted in the first round. 
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You could be right, but he is a little bigger than most of the top rookie WR's and didn't have the QB the others did, so I'm not ruling it out. But the main point I was making is that at 1.8 there is likely to be a pretty good WR available, especially with leagues that prize RB's.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I covet Pitts too. But I would not draft him ahead of Ja'Marr Chase (or DeVonta Smith, and maybe a couple others too). I too have the 1 and 8 in a league where I'd like to draft him - I might take him at the 8. If he's gone before then...C'est la vie. 

There are only two TEs in the top THIRTY pass catchers in fantasy (regardless of PPR/non-PPR). So Pitts has to be probably top 3-ish to make it worth it. 

I get positional scarcity/mismatches/whatever, but I think you're better off taking the potentially elite WR/RB regardless. I would guess that of league winners this year, a non-majority less than a top TE on their roster.
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I fully understand what you are saying but I will throw this out there...right now college football is pumping out legit WRs...in the last three years Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins, Claypool, Jeudy,  Deebo, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, McLaurin, Ridley, DJ Moore, Sutton, Chark and Gallup have entered the league (and there are other solid prospects as well) and they really aren't coming out of nowhere (i.e. it seems to be getting a little easier identifying WR talent unless you are the Patriots)...this year's class looks like it will be another nice crop...in that same period the best TEs drafted are Hockenson, Fant, Gesicki, Andrews and Goedert (and I definitely understand TEs take longer to develop)...my point is not TE in general but more specific to Pitts in that if you see him as an elite prospect he could end up being a tremendous asset and one that you may not see again for awhile while there is a very good chance you will be able to get your hands on another top-end WR prospect....again, this is only if you feel Pitts is special and will be joining the Kelce/Waller (they were the starting TEs on the championship teams in my two leagues) world and be staying there for a long period of time.

 
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toddthebountyhunter said:
You could be right, but he is a little bigger than most of the top rookie WR's and didn't have the QB the others did, so I'm not ruling it out. But the main point I was making is that at 1.8 there is likely to be a pretty good WR available, especially with leagues that prize RB's.
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Like last year, quality WR's will run well into round 2. How deep depends on a myriad of factors, some that will flesh out between now and April and others that depend on the league.

 
I'll agree - it is easier than ever to get good/really good/even great WRs much later than you could before. 

I mean, Elijah Moore is a FIRST team All American...and almost nobody mentions his name.

Just look at this list - and it's not even all inclusive of guys that could make a difference:

Ja'Marr Chase
DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Rashod Bateman 
Chris Olave
Kadarius Toney
Rondale Moore
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Tylan Wallace
Elijah Moore
Sage Surrat

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
You almost have to throw out this season with some of these guys. Yet, everything I've seen projects Bateman as a 1st rounder NFL pick, so with that kind of draft capital, I gotta think he's someone to at least take look at in a 1st round FF rookie. 
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Yes, I understand some are projecting Bateman this way. I'm asking why, and 'throw 2020 out, people love him' isn't really helping explain. Is it his speed? His route running? Explosiveness? Or (my suspicion) is it carry over effect that this guy sparkled a bit in 2019 in a nice WR group (with Tyler Johnson/Autman-Bell) and people just expect him to continue upward trajectory? Now, I don't watch a ton of college football, but being a Gopher's fan I saw all of the 2020 games. Unashamed to admit I'm an eyeball test guy, not a draft guru. When I scout 1st round WRs, I expect to have a "whoa, man amongst boys" reaction to what I see. What I saw of Bateman was more "meh, he's ok" than someone who dazzled and was worth targeting (which Tyler Johnson was). 

 
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BigJim® said:
Yes, I understand some are projecting Bateman this way. I'm asking why, and 'throw 2020 out, people love him' isn't really helping explain. Is it his speed? His route running? Explosiveness? Or (my suspicion) is it carry over effect that this guy sparkled a bit in 2019 in a nice WR group (with Tyler Johnson/Autman-Bell) and people just expect him to continue upward trajectory? Now, I don't watch a ton of college football, but being a Gopher's fan I saw all of the 2020 games. Unashamed to admit I'm an eyeball test guy, not a draft guru. When I scout 1st round WRs, I expect to have a "whoa, man against boys" reaction to what I see. What I saw of Bateman was more "meh, he's ok" than someone who dazzled and was worth targeting (which Tyler Johnson was). 
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Honestly, I haven't seen much tape on Bateman. I've seen more tape on Rondale Moore, who I've been eyeing at 1.8, along with Pitts (if he makes it that far or I don't take him at 1.2), and possibly Javonte or Gainwell, if they make it that far. It should be an interesting Combine this year for sure. Will be nice seeing some of these guys we haven't seen much of this year. 

 
MAC_32 said:
I don't disagree, but if a hypothetical person is hell bent on a RB and they don't like the available options then I think that would be the prudent move.
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In my particular case, I have David Montgomery, Chris Carson, and Darrel Henderson as my running backs in a full PPR, which might help to explain why I'm targeting a RB with my 1.1 or 1.2 pick. A lot depends on landing spot of course, but if Najee somehow ends up in Pittsburgh, for instance, I'd likely grab him at 1.1 then decide between WR/TE at 1.2.

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
Hey, I think you guys are striking at the core of some important rookie draft strategy here, not just for 2021 but beyond. Good work. I've managed to acquire 1.1, 1.2, and 1.8 in my 1QB 12 team dynasty league and though the 1st round WR talent for 2021 is seemingly greater/deeper than the RB/TE talent, my positional needs are mostly at RB and TE. The last time I had a top 3 pick, I chose Bishop Sankey and don't want to repeat that fiasco. hahaha  

The argument of drafting best available player over positional needs would seem to dictate taking two 2021 WR's with 1.1 & 1.2, but I just can't see that happening in my particular case. Not that I'm absolutely stacked at WR. I just don't have as big a need at that position. My thinking at this point is that ideally I come away with a top RB, WR, and Pitts with my first 3 picks. I'm thinking I need to take a RB with one of my first two picks, because they go quickly in my league. And if I really want to guarantee I get Pitts, I'm thinking I may need to take him with 1.2, and then go best available WR at 1.8, since WR is so deep. So if I go Najee and Pitts 1.2, 1.2 (for instance), that would be purely due to positional needs. The question then becomes, is there enough difference in future value between the top few WR's and the top RB/TE combo? Are there considerations here I've not taken into account? If you had 1.1 and 1.2, would you consider positional need more than you would if you only held one of those picks?
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Here is where you need to make your combined draft board and then trust it.   The entire key to a successful draft is finding fantasy starters.  

Put in the time and effort to really figure out your rankings based in whatever factors you think are important.  Some of that is your league willingness to trade RB talent but you need to figure out how important that is in elevating a lesser talent.  Sankey was a great example.  

There are no guarantees no matter what so you have to trust your process of evaluating and then go with it.  The combined draft board is really the critical tool.

 
Gally said:
Here is where you need to make your combined draft board and then trust it.   The entire key to a successful draft is finding fantasy starters.  

Put in the time and effort to really figure out your rankings based in whatever factors you think are important.  Some of that is your league willingness to trade RB talent but you need to figure out how important that is in elevating a lesser talent.  Sankey was a great example.  

There are no guarantees no matter what so you have to trust your process of evaluating and then go with it.  The combined draft board is really the critical tool.
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Solid advice. I've never done a combined draft board before. This is a good year to institute that practice. 👍

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
In my particular case, I have David Montgomery, Chris Carson, and Darrel Henderson as my running backs in a full PPR, which might help to explain why I'm targeting a RB with my 1.1 or 1.2 pick. A lot depends on landing spot of course, but if Najee somehow ends up in Pittsburgh, for instance, I'd likely grab him at 1.1 then decide between WR/TE at 1.2.
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If you are sold on one of the RBs, I would take that RB with the 1.01, and try to trade down from the 1.02.  Personally, I would be taking Harris with the 1.01 if I had it in any leagues. If your league is as RB obsessed as you say, someone will want to get the 1.02 pick to grab one of the remaining RBs (Williams or Etienne).  If you can drop back to the 1.05 or so, acquire a good young WR for dropping down, then you could draft Pitts at the 1.05 and take the best WR available at 1.08.

With all of the hype now, I doubt Pitts lasts until the 1.08 in 1 QB leagues, so you may have to get into the top 6 to land him.  But if you do the above scenario, and he's gone by 1.05, then you're probably looking at Williams and any WR not named Chase at 1.05.

I haven't seen a TE prospect getting hyped like this since Vernon Davis blew up the combine.  That's the only time I used a mid-1st on a TE in dynasty taking him at 1.07.  He had a great NFL career, but he never matched the hype fantasy-wise. If you think Pitts is going to end up like Gonzalez/Gronk/Hernandez (fantasy football wise, not other issues) in their primes, or Kelce, Waller, Kittle, then picking him in the top 3 would be the right move, but I know I couldn't get myself to pull that trigger.

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
In my particular case, I have David Montgomery, Chris Carson, and Darrel Henderson as my running backs in a full PPR, which might help to explain why I'm targeting a RB with my 1.1 or 1.2 pick. A lot depends on landing spot of course, but if Najee somehow ends up in Pittsburgh, for instance, I'd likely grab him at 1.1 then decide between WR/TE at 1.2.
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Najee in Pittsburgh would likely behind the consensus top pick in all but SF or 2QB leagues.

 
Tornacl said:
If you are sold on one of the RBs, I would take that RB with the 1.01, and try to trade down from the 1.02.  Personally, I would be taking Harris with the 1.01 if I had it in any leagues. If your league is as RB obsessed as you say, someone will want to get the 1.02 pick to grab one of the remaining RBs (Williams or Etienne).  If you can drop back to the 1.05 or so, acquire a good young WR for dropping down, then you could draft Pitts at the 1.05 and take the best WR available at 1.08.

With all of the hype now, I doubt Pitts lasts until the 1.08 in 1 QB leagues, so you may have to get into the top 6 to land him.  But if you do the above scenario, and he's gone by 1.05, then you're probably looking at Williams and any WR not named Chase at 1.05.

I haven't seen a TE prospect getting hyped like this since Vernon Davis blew up the combine.  That's the only time I used a mid-1st on a TE in dynasty taking him at 1.07.  He had a great NFL career, but he never matched the hype fantasy-wise. If you think Pitts is going to end up like Gonzalez/Gronk/Hernandez (fantasy football wise, not other issues) in their primes, or Kelce, Waller, Kittle, then picking him in the top 3 would be the right move, but I know I couldn't get myself to pull that trigger.
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I remember the guy before me taking ebron, and OBJ falling to the 1.09. that was awesome. 

I don't think this year is quite that, but it could be.

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
I'm with you, man. I long ago locked into Etienne, but now I'm more about Harris. And I too wonder about how high Pitts could go and don't want to miss out on him. I am of the opinion he could go top 3 now based on the fact that I am seriously considering taking him at 1.2.
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Man I hope he isn't shooting up draft boards like you think.  I was hearing some people talk about it being dangerous to take him in the 1st due to TE development and history.  I am in love with him and really want him as a mid first.

 
The one league where I have good picks, super flex 2 and 10. 

I'll call my shot now and bet on walking away with Najee and Pitts. (I need a TE)

 
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Tornacl said:
If you are sold on one of the RBs, I would take that RB with the 1.01, and try to trade down from the 1.02.  Personally, I would be taking Harris with the 1.01 if I had it in any leagues. If your league is as RB obsessed as you say, someone will want to get the 1.02 pick to grab one of the remaining RBs (Williams or Etienne).  If you can drop back to the 1.05 or so, acquire a good young WR for dropping down, then you could draft Pitts at the 1.05 and take the best WR available at 1.08.

With all of the hype now, I doubt Pitts lasts until the 1.08 in 1 QB leagues, so you may have to get into the top 6 to land him.  But if you do the above scenario, and he's gone by 1.05, then you're probably looking at Williams and any WR not named Chase at 1.05.

I haven't seen a TE prospect getting hyped like this since Vernon Davis blew up the combine.  That's the only time I used a mid-1st on a TE in dynasty taking him at 1.07.  He had a great NFL career, but he never matched the hype fantasy-wise. If you think Pitts is going to end up like Gonzalez/Gronk/Hernandez (fantasy football wise, not other issues) in their primes, or Kelce, Waller, Kittle, then picking him in the top 3 would be the right move, but I know I couldn't get myself to pull that trigger.
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Solid feedback here. 👍  I like the idea of trading down a bit from 1.2 and picking up a young WR as compensation.  Another viable strategy worthy of consideration.

 
-OZ- said:
I remember the guy before me taking ebron, and OBJ falling to the 1.09. that was awesome. 

I don't think this year is quite that, but it could be.
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Was that guy in front of you employed by the Lions' front office?

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I'll agree - it is easier than ever to get good/really good/even great WRs much later than you could before. 

I mean, Elijah Moore is a FIRST team All American...and almost nobody mentions his name.

Just look at this list - and it's not even all inclusive of guys that could make a difference:

Ja'Marr Chase
DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Rashod Bateman 
Chris Olave
Kadarius Toney
Rondale Moore
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Tylan Wallace
Elijah Moore
Sage Surrat
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That is some good quality.  Does the fact that Chase opted not to play this year give you any concern at all?

I haven't heard anything about how he's been training.  If he's been training by himself, I might be a little concerned.  If he's been going to one of those training factories then I might not be as worried, but if he was concerned enough not to play this year he may not want to train with anyone.

 
I know nothing about Pitt, but I’ll be gosh darned if I’m taking any rookie TE in the top 5. There’s like 10 WRs and RBs I’d take first unless it’s a massive TE premium league. 
Your money is far better spent getting a veteran

 
tangfoot said:
I know nothing about Pitt, but I’ll be gosh darned if I’m taking any rookie TE in the top 5. There’s like 10 WRs and RBs I’d take first unless it’s a massive TE premium league. 
Your money is far better spent getting a veteran
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I thought that too until I watched Pitts drop 8/170/4 against Ole Miss this year. The dude is a beast, basically a 6'6" 240 lb WR. Many project him to be a top ten overall pick in the NFL draft and some have him as high as #4 pick overall. 

 
Boston said:
I fully understand what you are saying but I will throw this out there...right now college football is pumping out legit WRs...in the last three years Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins, Claypool, Jeudy,  Deebo, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, McLaurin, Ridley, DJ Moore, Sutton, Chark and Gallup have entered the league (and there are other solid prospects as well) and they really aren't coming out of nowhere (i.e. it seems to be getting a little easier identifying WR talent unless you are the Patriots)...this year's class looks like it will be another nice crop...in that same period the best TEs drafted are Hockenson, Fant, Gesicki, Andrews and Goedert (and I definitely understand TEs take longer to develop)...my point is not TE in general but more specific to Pitts in that if you see him as an elite prospect he could end up being a tremendous asset and one that you may not see again for awhile while there is a very good chance you will be able to get your hands on another top-end WR prospect....again, this is only if you feel Pitts is special and will be joining the Kelce/Waller (they were the starting TEs on the championship teams in my two leagues) world and be staying there for a long period of time.
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Good post (as is @Andy Dufresne's follow-up below). I've been someone who likes to build around WR for years, but the depth really is remarkable right now. The Dynasty Value Discussion thread documents this well. Look at the names rotating into peoples' top tiers every year (e.g. Lamb and Jefferson this season, who could be displaced or joined by at least a couple guys from the 2021 class). I don't know if I'll be able to resist drafting guys like Chase or Smith high (old habits and all) but there's a strong case for prioritizing other positions depending on format.  

The tough thing with drafting rookie TEs is the anticipated wait. But I wonder if Pitts profiles more like big-WR types (e.g. Jordan Reed, Evan Engram) who had early volume and success.

 
menobrown said:
I agree with you they are the two best players. I have pick 1.1 in two leagues and right now I'd take Najee and in general I hope when it's all said and done I feel good enough about a RB to select one at 1.1 but that has to do with positional scarcity/need, these are the two best players to me.
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So you go with need over best available?

 
Spike said:
So you go with need over best available?
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Depends how close I got them.

Someone earlier in this thread invoked Bishop Sankey and I was in my dynasty rookie draft infancy stages when he came out but I did take him at 1.3 or 1.4 in a loaded WR class out of need. I did not think he was close in talent to the WR's. That's a life lesson I'll always remember,  I honestly think of Sankey every year during rookie drafts.

Close is a relative term of course but if if it's what I consider close I'd go for need, if it's not that close I go BPA. Defining the close is the hard part of this equation, maybe bes way to say it is if I got them in same tier I'll go for need.

 
Tornacl said:
If you are sold on one of the RBs, I would take that RB with the 1.01, and try to trade down from the 1.02.  Personally, I would be taking Harris with the 1.01 if I had it in any leagues. If your league is as RB obsessed as you say, someone will want to get the 1.02 pick to grab one of the remaining RBs (Williams or Etienne).  If you can drop back to the 1.05 or so, acquire a good young WR for dropping down, then you could draft Pitts at the 1.05 and take the best WR available at 1.08.

With all of the hype now, I doubt Pitts lasts until the 1.08 in 1 QB leagues, so you may have to get into the top 6 to land him.  But if you do the above scenario, and he's gone by 1.05, then you're probably looking at Williams and any WR not named Chase at 1.05.

I haven't seen a TE prospect getting hyped like this since Vernon Davis blew up the combine.  That's the only time I used a mid-1st on a TE in dynasty taking him at 1.07.  He had a great NFL career, but he never matched the hype fantasy-wise. If you think Pitts is going to end up like Gonzalez/Gronk/Hernandez (fantasy football wise, not other issues) in their primes, or Kelce, Waller, Kittle, then picking him in the top 3 would be the right move, but I know I couldn't get myself to pull that trigger.
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It is hard not to get excited about Pitts, I will admit.  However, I have seen my share of sure-fire TE prospects never live up to the hype.  Johnny Mitchell was going to take the league by storm.  Kyle Brady was going to be the face of the Jets' franchise (in a sense, he was).  Bubba Franks was going to be the next Kellen Winslow.  Rickey Dudley was an athletic freak.  Kellen Winslow, Jr. was a can't-miss prospect.  OJ Howard was touted as the most complete TE prospect in a decade.  All first-round busts.  Eric Ebron (2014, 1.10) was drawing comparisons to Vernon Davis, and while he has not been a bust, he certainly has not lived up to his draft status.  Meanwhile, Tight Ends like Ben Coates (5th Round), Shannon Sharpe (7th Round), Antonio Gates (3rd Round), Travis Kelce (3rd Round), Darren Waller (6th Round), Mark Andrews (3rd Round) and George Kittle (5th Round) were not the top Tight End prospects in their draft classes.  Even Rob Gronkowski (2nd Round) was drafted a round behind Jermaine Gresham.  

Pitts may indeed be the next Tony Gonzalez, but Tight End has proven to be an incredibly difficult position to scout.  I might grab Pitts with a late first (although it's doubtful he's still on the board), but I am reluctant to take a rookie TE in the first half of Round One of my fantasy drafts.  

 
toddthebountyhunter said:
I thought that too until I watched Pitts drop 8/170/4 against Ole Miss this year. The dude is a beast, basically a 6'6" 240 lb WR. Many project him to be a top ten overall pick in the NFL draft and some have him as high as #4 pick overall. 
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There are concerns with Pitts. Is he gonna play at 240? Jordan Reed/Evan Engram who play at 235-240 arent the elite types. Needs to be 250-255 the minimum.

Team destination matters also.  When  Gronk  was drafted, he had an elite QB. Kittle didn't have a 1000 yd WR on the team.  The same with Gonzalez. No 1000 yd receiver.

Also. Pitts will need to run faster than a 4.55.

 
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Unwrittenlaw said:
I think I would only want Pitts on the Patriots/Bears/Jets/Colts/Bills.
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Seems like an odd grouping of teams. 

  • The Bears have not been very TE friendly.....they have drafted quite a few recently and none have really been fantasy friendly.  Graham did well this year based on TD's early but tailed off as the season went along.
  • Colts have a lot of TE's so I am not sure why that would be a great destination
  • Jets are going under a whole coaching change so not sure why that would be a desired destination
  • Patriots have no QB so tough to say that would be a good spot
  • Bills might be a nice spot but no guarantee.  They have Brown and Diggs hogging targets 



 
socrates said:
It is hard not to get excited about Pitts, I will admit.  However, I have seen my share of sure-fire TE prospects never live up to the hype.  Johnny Mitchell was going to take the league by storm.  Kyle Brady was going to be the face of the Jets' franchise (in a sense, he was).  Bubba Franks was going to be the next Kellen Winslow.  Rickey Dudley was an athletic freak.  Kellen Winslow, Jr. was a can't-miss prospect.  OJ Howard was touted as the most complete TE prospect in a decade.  All first-round busts.  Eric Ebron (2014, 1.10) was drawing comparisons to Vernon Davis, and while he has not been a bust, he certainly has not lived up to his draft status.  Meanwhile, Tight Ends like Ben Coates (5th Round), Shannon Sharpe (7th Round), Antonio Gates (3rd Round), Travis Kelce (3rd Round), Darren Waller (6th Round), Mark Andrews (3rd Round) and George Kittle (5th Round) were not the top Tight End prospects in their draft classes.  Even Rob Gronkowski (2nd Round) was drafted a round behind Jermaine Gresham.  

Pitts may indeed be the next Tony Gonzalez, but Tight End has proven to be an incredibly difficult position to scout.  I might grab Pitts with a late first (although it's doubtful he's still on the board), but I am reluctant to take a rookie TE in the first half of Round One of my fantasy drafts.  
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Well thought out and reasoned comment. I think if Pitts fell to 1.08 in a rookie draft and I really needed a TE more than any position (I do), then I likely take the chance and grab Pitts there if he lands somewhere like Jacksonville or possibly NE. I have Tonyan now but I have to think he regresses next year, being as TD dependent as he is. 

 
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