Taking a look at the matchups this week in DFS. (Part I)
KC@NO (Spread: NO+3 O/U: 51.5)
Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and a bunch of value plays, this is about as simple as it gets. NO has a good defense, but it will be difficult to slow KC on a fast track. If you want to play it safe, this is the way to go.
On the other side, NO with Taysom Hill doesn’t really excite me. They will likely be playing from behind and I just don’t trust Hill in the passing game. Assuming NO does throw, Michael Thomas is the obvious runback. KC is vulnerable to the run though, and Alvin Kamara has found his place with Hill. I like Kamara in this game.
Det@Tenn (Tenn -10.5 O/U: 51.5)
Another high scoring game, but the spread is troubling. This one screams a big game for Derrick Henry and I will be building around him in a lot of lineups. Tennessee has proven capable throwing the ball, but will they need to? I doubt it. AJ Brown could have a good day, but I don’t think I can justify his price ($8300). Corey Davis would be a better option at $6800. I am just concerned about the volume.
Detroit is going to struggle on offense. Stafford is hurt and Daniels is so-so. I like the Tenn defense as a value play this week. Possible runbacks for Detroit are D’Andre Swift and Danny Amendola. Amendola makes a good pivot, and at $5300 he clears room for the higher end plays.
Hou@Ind (Ind -7 O/U: 51)
OK, another high scoring game involving the Colts. The trouble is, Indianapolis is a balanced offense with multiple scoring options. TY Hilton has shown that he could be the WR1 in this offense and at $6800 is worth considering. But, Indy also likes the running backs, especially in the red zone; this makes Johnathan Taylor an interesting option. Not sure which way to go on this one. Given the high implied total for Indy (29), I like Michael Pittman ($5500) as a value play this week.
Houston will have Brandon Cooks back and that will help. But Indy is the league’s best secondary and could be a problem in the passing game. Watson should be able to get his points; but with no real options to throw to, it would be hard to justify using him. David Johnson ($5900) should be back and could be an option, but he has not shown much and the game script likely would not favor him.
TB@ATL (Atl -5.5 O/U: 50.5)
Now this is a game with a lot of potential. Good scoring, decent line, I like this one. How to stack Brady, though? Even though Tampa does spread the ball around, when it is money time it is Evans time. Adding Gronk fills the TE slot at a reasonable price ($6300). Jones is out for this game so Leonard Fournette will be the featured back, but he should have a tough time against a solid Atlanta run defense.
The question for Atlanta is ‘Will Julio play?’ Atlanta is a much better offense on the field with him in the lineup. Calvin Ridley is a great runback option or even a stand-alone choice. I don’t trust Ryan against the Tampa D, so I doubt I will do any ATL stacks. If Julio does not play, Russell Gage may be an interesting option at $5700.
Summary
So, looking at the high-scoring games, I love a Henry/TEN mini stack. KC/NO is the best matchup so I likely will do the obligatory KC stack. I personally am not a fan of Brady, but this is about as good a game to get for him, so I will likely throw a TB stack in and see what happens. I doubt I will stack the HOU/IND game, but I will try to find room for players like Taylor, Hilton, and Pittman.
I will have more on the rest of the games later.