otb_lifer
Footballguy
LIVE ODDS TICKER
hi.
this looks to be the kinda year where the tote can explode.
hello, again.
Essential Quality will undoubtedly be your post-time fave, and very well deserving. an unblemished 6-0, including 5 straight mile+ Stakes wins, capped off by snagging the Blue Grass at Keeneland last week.
his biggest comp seemed to be Shug's trainee Greatest Honour, but he's off the trail.
Concert Tour was also highly touted, but flattened out in yesterday's Arky. bounceroo.
since the points system was introduced back in '12, all the Derby winners had won one of the Arky/Fla./S.A. as their final prep.
those 3 horses this year are (respectively) Super Stock/Known Agenda/Rock Your World.
RYW dazzled at S.A. in his first ever dirt start ... Super Stock ran a very economic beaut in a 6 horse field (dusting an underwhelming Concert Tour), while Known Agenda bounced back in the FD after a facacta 5th in the Sam Davis (Tampa).
so, yeah ... i think Essential Quality stands out - best of a mediocre crop, but by how much? enough to warrant even money by the time the gate springs?
i think he'll be bet down as such, yes ... think Battaglia will install at 5/2, possibly 2/1 - would expect 9/5 come the playing of "My Old Kentucky Home"
so there's that.
as i accentuate every year, i am not here to simply pick a winner ... hell, 2/1 on EQ is gonna pay $6 and change, same as it would at a bullring like Chucktown.
but the KD exotics are bountiful - the biggest pools of the year ... you ain't getting those kinda tix cashed on a Monday at Parx, i assure you.
my goal here is to find the clunk up mofo who i can use as my key horse in the exotics. that longer priced hoss who can last the distance, pass up the gassed, and tilt the tri and super totes to PAYDAY!
it's been awhile since the yuuuuuuuge explosions happened frequently enough (think Giacomo and MTB, for example) to warrant that kinda outlay ... and most of that is due to adopting the points system, which rewards excellence in routes, over the old method of qualifying via money earned in graded stakes - which always opened the field up to cheap speed that really had no biz on the CD oval going the KD distance.
matter of fact, i believe it was a 19 year stretch where the favorite didn't win ... but, once the pts system took over, we had 7 favorites in a row - including 2 Triple Crowns after a 37 year drought.
Essential Quality is very good - heck, i think a few more can make a somewhat decent spec for winning as well (including Hot Rod Charlie) ... but the status quo gotta be upended in abject chaos eventually - it's a simple case of the odds getting greater every year in it's favor.
i think we have it this year.
PS - as effed up as the past year or so has been, getting this race back for the first Saturday in MAY seems like something is finally right.
doesn't it?
PPS - will miss every last word of @Man of Constant Sorrow's posts up in here ... from the ridiculous to the beautiful to the sublime to the poignant to the purely abstract - it will not be the same without him - R.I.P., Tom
hi.
this looks to be the kinda year where the tote can explode.
hello, again.
Essential Quality will undoubtedly be your post-time fave, and very well deserving. an unblemished 6-0, including 5 straight mile+ Stakes wins, capped off by snagging the Blue Grass at Keeneland last week.
his biggest comp seemed to be Shug's trainee Greatest Honour, but he's off the trail.
Concert Tour was also highly touted, but flattened out in yesterday's Arky. bounceroo.
since the points system was introduced back in '12, all the Derby winners had won one of the Arky/Fla./S.A. as their final prep.
those 3 horses this year are (respectively) Super Stock/Known Agenda/Rock Your World.
RYW dazzled at S.A. in his first ever dirt start ... Super Stock ran a very economic beaut in a 6 horse field (dusting an underwhelming Concert Tour), while Known Agenda bounced back in the FD after a facacta 5th in the Sam Davis (Tampa).
so, yeah ... i think Essential Quality stands out - best of a mediocre crop, but by how much? enough to warrant even money by the time the gate springs?
i think he'll be bet down as such, yes ... think Battaglia will install at 5/2, possibly 2/1 - would expect 9/5 come the playing of "My Old Kentucky Home"
so there's that.
as i accentuate every year, i am not here to simply pick a winner ... hell, 2/1 on EQ is gonna pay $6 and change, same as it would at a bullring like Chucktown.
but the KD exotics are bountiful - the biggest pools of the year ... you ain't getting those kinda tix cashed on a Monday at Parx, i assure you.
my goal here is to find the clunk up mofo who i can use as my key horse in the exotics. that longer priced hoss who can last the distance, pass up the gassed, and tilt the tri and super totes to PAYDAY!
it's been awhile since the yuuuuuuuge explosions happened frequently enough (think Giacomo and MTB, for example) to warrant that kinda outlay ... and most of that is due to adopting the points system, which rewards excellence in routes, over the old method of qualifying via money earned in graded stakes - which always opened the field up to cheap speed that really had no biz on the CD oval going the KD distance.
matter of fact, i believe it was a 19 year stretch where the favorite didn't win ... but, once the pts system took over, we had 7 favorites in a row - including 2 Triple Crowns after a 37 year drought.
Essential Quality is very good - heck, i think a few more can make a somewhat decent spec for winning as well (including Hot Rod Charlie) ... but the status quo gotta be upended in abject chaos eventually - it's a simple case of the odds getting greater every year in it's favor.
i think we have it this year.
PS - as effed up as the past year or so has been, getting this race back for the first Saturday in MAY seems like something is finally right.
doesn't it?
PPS - will miss every last word of @Man of Constant Sorrow's posts up in here ... from the ridiculous to the beautiful to the sublime to the poignant to the purely abstract - it will not be the same without him - R.I.P., Tom
Last edited by a moderator: