wikkidpissah
Footballguy
well, i was always a closer for a sucker....................................hmmmm...............thought that might be a joke...............'t'isn't.................carry onI always was a sucker for a closer
well, i was always a closer for a sucker....................................hmmmm...............thought that might be a joke...............'t'isn't.................carry onI always was a sucker for a closer
trying to keep it clean, big fellawell, i was always a closer for a sucker....................................hmmmm...............thought that might be a joke...............'t'isn't.................carry on
good to see O Besos holding at a consistent 40/1 ... it's very early still, but enthused to see that he has yet to be "Wise-guyed", which is what i'm most wary of with him - hope he stays relatively under the radar, hovering in the 30+ range.
I don't know about a closer for a sucker, but I've heard that only closers get coffee. Sell it, Shel, sell it.trying to keep it clean, big fella
this opens the door for Brooklyn Strong, last seen sucking wind in the glacial Wood at beautiful Aqueduct.
to his great credit, he does have this gritty win in last year's Remsen to call back on ... waayyyy ahead of eventual Fla. Derby winner (and current KD darling) Known Agenda, who wanted NO part of that off track.
Your post made me chuckle is allto his great credit, he does have this gritty win in last year's Remsen to call back on ... waayyyy ahead of eventual Fla. Derby winner (and current KD darling) Known Agenda, who wanted NO part of that off track.
something to consider if we get anuddah muddah in 6 days.
i gotcha on that ... that's what i figuredYour post made me chuckle is all
yeah, i have a weakness for Remsen winners cuz its the first time 2yos go 9f (or used to be, i dunno) and Known Agenda was in it, but now i see the fig was a wetass 79, which actually lines up with his onceover in the Wood. nothing to see here, move alongCadoooo is OUT
this opens the door for Brooklyn Strong, last seen sucking wind in the glacial Wood at beautiful Aqueduct.
@wikkidpissah your boy gets his shot
biggest story here is losing the rabbit we all wanted so much ... this sets RYW up beautifully if he can snag a favorable draw - he's the fastest of this bunch, and now he may not be softened, lest we think Soup n' Sammy can do the job - dunno if Hot Rod Chuck is gonna wanna burn out early chasing a (hopefully) sub :23/:46
maybe RYW now lets Soupy give 'em a target - but i can't imagine he'll be any further back than 2nd heading to the stretch.
best part of him sneaking in is giving Rispoli a mount for this race ... booted off of RYW, he now gets to sit on Brooklyn Strong in the biggest race of his life ... kid has been a solid rider out in Cali, good to see him resurfaceyeah, i have a weakness for Remsen winners cuz its the first time 2yos go 9f (or used to be, i dunno) and Known Agenda was in it, but now i see the fig was a wetass 79, which actually lines up with his onceover in the Wood. nothing to see here, move along
changes how i'm gonna 'cap this thing a great deal ... dunno who can get out with him at top cruising speed - no reason to believe he can't sustain, he looked fit for another panel or two at the S.A. wire - only cat who checks every recent form box:i was getting more behind Rock anyway after seeing he had a final furlong under 12secs in one of his turf races. it'll be a 3-1, 7-2 sitch w he and the fave now. any fans who can still get +525 on him should hit now
yeah, RYW's weakness is that it takes a lot to get him to that last lead change. i'm not sure whether to fault Rispoli for that or fear whether the next boy wontbest part of him sneaking in is giving Rispoli a mount for this race ... booted off of RYW, he now gets to sit on Brooklyn Strong in the biggest race of his life ... kid has been a solid rider out in Cali, good to see him resurface
this was prior to being named on Brooky ✌
#motivated
EQ? That work suckedkinda have a feeling we see one more bigger name scratch prior to post draw Tuesday - this thing is flippin'
EQ? That work sucked
as of now, yes ... but i do believe they are plum outta AEs - ergo, any more defections, and we'll be reduced by that (those) #s.Looking like a full field of 20?
I was excited he was on RTW, then my happiness got crushed. Wikkid should be happy tho.as we await tomorrow's draw, here's a pretty thorough look at Umberto Rispoli - the kid is a winner.
✌
thanks for the kind words.First of all, so good to have you back, OTB. You make this thread interesting every year. And you bring out the best in other posters as well.
I was sort of down on this Derby, until I started reading Clocker reports from Mike Welsch. They have been such a part of my Derby wagering strategy and success over the years. When he says a horse is working phenomenally well or looks the best in the field I have often bet with both fists. Street Sense, Always Dreaming, Orb and others. I also RUN from horses who put in average works in their final work. I also traditionally hate the Blue Grass as a prep. 4 weeks is not ideal, and it's a horses for courses track more than others. EQ and Highly Motivated not only come out of a prep I don't like, they battled to the wire in a tough race after setting a soft pace up front going easy. EQ had a funky motion late, sort of lugging out and his legs flying out. Then in their final work they both struggled, finishing behind their workmates. I hate that. You have to draw away from those horses with ease. I think both are over the top so my main strategy is to toss both. I am with OTB on both Rock Your World and O Besos being extra live. A lot depends on the draw but if RYW breaks clean he should get the most comfortable trip. He drew off with authority in the SA Derby and is still progressing. My only pause is Sadler has done nothing in the Derby. And he's had good 3 year olds. (I hope you all saw Flightline's race this weekend - WOW). Rosario on is the right call.
I can't fault Known Agenda's race in the Florida Derby at all. The kind I like to see. Professional. Stayed on the rail and showed he can rate inside of horses easily. Irad was patient, then eased out, went around the front runners and won going away. Looks like 1 1/4 is within reach. And looks pushbutton. If RYW doesn't fire for whatever reason this is the horse to beat. Doesn't need the lead. Hard to see him not contending turning for home.
Pretty game win by Hot Rod Charlie in the LA Derby. Like the fact that he was basically shown the whip twice in the stretch and was game pulling away at the end with a hand ride. O'Neill has a better track record in the Derby than Sadler though I don't think this horse is as talented as I'll Have Another or Nyquist. He'll be right there turning for home. After that I don't know.
O Besos looks like a very live closer and the workout report was sensational. Can't fault Super Stock either. Like Known Agenda looked very professional rating. Similar race but not quite as impressive to me. But could see clunking up in the exotics picture.
Like I do every year I have to dismiss the Wood. They walked early at 50 and change and then almost 1:15 and closers still dominated. There were 8 horses lined up passing the 1/8th pole which typically means a bunch of average horses.
Rock Your World could win easily or finish 6th. Wouldn't say the same for Known Agenda. I think his style gets him in the exacta. First run on the RYW and/or Hot Rod Charlie and it's just a matter of who's better. One of those 3 wins. Then O Besos closing. I'll probably play big exactas keying Known Agenda to the two speed types and a bunch of different exotics with O Besos in there.
It's only Monday - lot can happen. But that's my early call after watching preps and works.
i get why they made the switch, but it would've been the mount of a lifetime for the guy - will be pulling for Brooky to make some noise, and hoping to squeeze him in on my tix - we'll see after the draw.I was excited he was on RTW, then my happiness got crushed. Wikkid should be happy tho.
I will try to get the draw results posted by noon Eastern.i will be tied this morning at a dad/daughter event at my kid's school - 10 'til 1 - we have been asked not to be preoccupied with our mobile devices - gonna miss the draw - @Leroy Hoard & @Cowboysfan8 usually had the live draw updates in years past, iirc.
let's gooooo!
I haven’t been keeping up with anything except this thread (which I’m loving) this week. I’m in Cancun. I might be able to watch the draw on my phonethanks for the kind words.
just fantastic stuff here, Judge - always look forward to your contributions ... one can't break the race down any better than this ✌
i had mentioned a week or so ago that it was gonna be awfully hard not to use Known Agenda as my key ... i was on a high watching Irad masterfully take down the Apple Blossom over 2 better horses (Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver) ... his piloting of Letruska in the stretch, after getting eyeballed and passed by MG, was textbook dig down. cashed me a decent double up tri for his efforts (put him on top).
he's riding gangbusters these days, have considered him best in the gig for awhile ... putting him on that horse (Known Agenda) is one of those tipping points when confronted with making a call.
at that time it hadn't been confirmed that Caddooo was running, who i thought would press a pace up top with RYW much more urgently than Concert Tour ... once i saw Caddooo in, i drifted to O Besos as the key that could upend the verticals - hoping that we got a complete meltdown, with OB picking up many pieces to possibly crash as high as top of ticket.
with Caddooo's defection, we are left with Soup & Sammy and possibly the lone Baffert (Medina Spirit) to hustle RYW to perhaps expending far too much early on ... but the former has had quizzical works at Churchill (Welsch has been head scratching), and last time out the latter was treated to a gorgeous view of RYW's rear the whole way around, and never challenging a decent lick.
breaks now as RYW being able to get out there comfortably ... don't think the other two are anything for them to worry about sneaking away - i cannot see RYW any worse than 2nd hitting top of the stretch, and if he draws well, i gotta believe he'll be in the lead as we hit the straightaway.
so i'm not really seeing suicidals early on that are gonna wipe the second tier out, as well ... still love O Besos for all the reasons i mentioned in my earlier post about him, but it's gonna be harder for him to spring the upset now ... it will help economize my ticket if i decide to use him solely in 2nd/3rd/4th.
Welsch had been ragging those 2 Blue Grass survivors for a few days, yeah ... he thinks they left too much at Keeneland. works are telling him things.
Hot Rod Chuck is too damn honest not to consider - don't think he can stay close to RYW if he gets out unbothered like the S.A. Derby, though ... so much is gonna depend on how this cat draws.
RYW backers need to see him anywhere from the 7-16 hole, imo ... now, if RYW gets an adverse draw, and we get Medina Spirit and Soup & Sammy with great posts, then that's the perfect setup for O Besos blowing it up - best thing about OB is that his running style will not be hampered a bit by his draw.
but if RYW draws a clean post, with the other early speed compromised, well - i think he'll wire 'em.
i will be otherwise engaged this morning at a dad/daughter event at my kid's school - 10 'til 1 - we have been asked not to be preoccupied with our mobile devices - gonna miss the draw - @Leroy Hoard & @Cowboysfan8 usually had the live draw updates in years past, iirc.
let's gooooo!
Margaritas or Juleps today?I haven’t been keeping up with anything except this thread (which I’m loving) this week. I’m in Cancun. I might be able to watch the draw on my phone
Margaritas or Juleps today?
... not for nuttin', Cowboy - but a Julep prepared by a novice mixologist is no bueno!
the frozen mango margaritas are hard to beat on the beach.
Ive never had a julep. Might have to try one
Run with the champs, get it spoken like the champs.... not for nuttin', Cowboy - but a Julep prepared by a novice mixologist is no bueno!
they tend to overwork the sugar to the point of liquid Pixie Stick nausea - one saving grace in your sitch is that i'm sure the mint down there is fresh, what with Mojitos being a popular order in your locale.
(go for the Mint!)
EQ'S slow work concerns me but he's grey so that negates the slow work. Soup and Sandwich is also grey so will figure in my combos as well. Need the colorage figures on the other horses before settling in on my choices.
-QG
I know a lady that usually goes with the greys and seems to do better than many.EQ'S slow work concerns me but he's grey so that negates the slow work. Soup and Sandwich is also grey so will figure in my combos as well. Need the colorage figures on the other horses before settling in on my choices.
-QG
Of course, the bettors all know greys are the way to goI know a lady that usually goes with the greys and seems to do better than many.
I use the Twinspires website on my chromebook and then cast the races to my bar TV. It has been awesome during the last year. Even though my wife and I were married at a horsetrack we have only ever been occasional betters but it has been a great diversion for both of us and a nice way to meander through an afternoon.A bit off topic but you been back to any tracks in the area OTB? I like to go bet at the Meadowlands or Monmouth (and it keeps me from having another degen apo on my phone) but I think even with the distancing I don't wanna be around that many people just yet even vaxxed. Maybe I take a quick trip just to the window on Friday night
-QG
Enough to throw the #1 off the top of a ticket?Whole race has changed now. Hate when that happens. EQ drew well at 14
So did Sylvia Plath before that run-in with the oven.I only bought the mint juleps for the free glass.