Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

How do you avoid drafting WR6?


Recommended Posts

How many of you have a litter of these types of WRs on your dynasty squad and can't give them away?  Even WRs with NFL draft capital or solid, but unspectacular NFL WR#2s.   I don't know about you, but I've thought about this for some time now and would like to avoid too many of them on my dynasty teams.  I suppose we have to start with the team he is on.  Does he have poor QB play, poor scheme / usage, etc.  Then be honest with yourself about his abilities after about three years.   I don't know which is worse, having RBs with no NFL draft capital, or a bunch of WR6s that probably will never help my fantasy team, except as an emergency flex play.  For this reason I believe the best play is to trade up in rookie drafts as much as you can if there are real stud possibilities at RB.  Even if you miss on them, at least you minimize getting stuck with WRs that may never really help your fantasy team.  In start 1qb leagues, if you take someone like Lawrence (say at 1.7) over one of the top WRs, is it really as bad as you think?  At least with Lawrence there is strong possibility he is more tradable than the WR you passed on at 1.7 should he bust.

I don't really have an answer for this, thus the reason for the thread.  But I think we all agree that having too many WR6s on your team isn't a good thing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess this is a long way of saying “there’s too many good WRs, with most of them young, in the league now”.

Yes, very true and I agree that’s what makes taking RBs, TEs and even QBs a little more attractive in rookie drafts now. But yet, passing on very good WRs will still be tough.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good subject, but the answer really depends on replacement value in a particular league. This is why I am considering not even writing down names like St Brown and Surratt on my cheat sheet though. If they go to a great situation and hit then they might be a wr3/flex option. Yay.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO I think you need to ID what these guys are way before three years...no doubt you will make some mistakes due to this but the earlier you move on from these guys (as well as acquiring those that show something early) the more value you will get for them and the cleaner your roster will be.

Edited by Boston
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Boston said:

IMO I think you need to ID what these guys are way before three years...no doubt you will make some mistakes due to this but the earlier you move on from these guys (as well as acquiring those that show something early) the more value you will get for them and the cleaner your roster will be.

While I agree with you in principle, you can't judge a WR after one year IMO, because of some factors could be beyond his control.  Or in some cases, some WRs actually do get better in their 2nd or 3rd year, and / or their situation drastically changes.  However, far too often we see a WR slip into this WR6 mode and it is too late a lot of the time to get rid of them before that happens.  Then you are forever stuck with your WR6s, or give them away for far less than you gave.

Edited by JohnnyU
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

While I agree with you in principle, you can't judge a WR after one year IMO, because of some factors could be beyond his control.  Or in some cases, some WRs actually do get better in their 2nd or 3rd year, and / or their situation drastically changes.  However, far too often we see a WR slip into this WR6 mode and it is too late a lot of the time to get rid of them before that happens.

That's why I said you are gonna make some mistakes and you need to be able to live with that...this year I pulled the plug on Ruggs real quickly and got a decent but nothing special return but on the flipside I went all in on Aiyuk and while I paid top dollar I felt the price was only gonna continue to go up...regardless of how this plays out I can live with the results as watching those two play I felt strongly about each of them...sometimes you just gotta trust your gut.

Edited by Boston
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Boston said:

That's why I said you are gonna make some mistakes and you need to be able to live with that...this year I pulled the plug on Ruggs real quickly and got a decent but nothing special return but on the flipside I went all in on Aiyuk and while I paid top dollar I felt the price was only gonna continue to go up...regardless of how this plays out I can live with the results as watching those two play I felt strongly about each of them...sometimes you just gotta trust your gut.

I like your post, but I wish there was something I could do to minimize WR6s besides trusting my gut.  I suppose you have to factor in all of that player's situation and make an educated decision.  Sometimes it will work, and obviously sometimes it will not.  The last thing someone should do is give up on a player after one year unless they actually see their mistake clearly and don't see any factors beyond that player's control that could change your perception of that player.

Edited by JohnnyU
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

In start 1qb leagues, if you take someone like Lawrence (say at 1.7) over one of the top WRs, is it really as bad as you think?  At least with Lawrence there is strong possibility he is more tradable than the WR you passed on at 1.7 should he bust.

I have always leaned toward taking the QB over the WR late in the first round. If you have 3-4 starting QB's on your team chances are someone will need one. It is much easier to trade a QB for WR then the other way around. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I only draft WR1-5s. :yes:

Oh, I don't know, but I don't think many fantasy players are in love with their WR#5 :), but I suppose there could be large difference between your WR5 and WR6 in their chances at future success, I don't know.

Edited by JohnnyU
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I like your post, but I wish there was something I could do to minimize WR6s besides trusting my gut.  I suppose you have to factor in all of that player's situation and make an educated decision.  Sometimes it will work, and obviously sometimes it will not.  The last thing someone should do is give up on a player after one year unless they actually see their mistake clearly and don't see any factors beyond that player's control that could change your perception of that player.

In all honesty I find the best way to make an educated decision is to watch them play...we're not pro scouts but sometimes you can just tell...when I saw Aiyuk play last year I was blown away and made a decision to go all in on him...I fully understand that there are some mitigating factors but I just didn't see anything from Ruggs last year that got me excited...I could turn on the Raiders week 1 and feel totally different but I was very comfortable cashing out on him while I could get some real value back.

Edited by Boston
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Boston said:

In all honesty I find the best way to make an educated decision is to watch them play...we're not pro scouts but sometimes you can just tell...when I saw Aiyuk play last year I was blown away and made a decision to go all in on him...I fully understand that there are some mitigating factors but I just didn't see anything from Ruggs last year that got me excited...I could turn on the Raiders week 1 and feel totally different but I was very comfortable cashing out on him while I could get some real value back.

I'm certainly not trying to defend Ruggs, because I thought coming out of college he wasn't the best at playing the position.  I saw him more as a one trick pony.  I'm not saying HE IS a one trick pony, but I saw a raw WR with athleticism and I'm usually skeptical of those types.  I'm not saying Ruggs won't figure it out, but again, for me at least, he was one of those WRs that has high bust potential.  Again, I'm not calling Ruggs a bust yet, but if you see something you don't like and can get out from under it quickly at equal or just slightly less value, then what you are dong is minimizing risk IMO.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure I quite understand the OP, unless the idea was to spur some kind of discussion.  If you don't want them on your team then don't draft them?  Draft other positions regardless of BPA?  Pick a number of WRs you want on your roster and only fill a spot with someone better than your last WR?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, zed2283 said:

I'm not sure I quite understand the OP, unless the idea was to spur some kind of discussion.  If you don't want them on your team then don't draft them?  Draft other positions regardless of BPA?  Pick a number of WRs you want on your roster and only fill a spot with someone better than your last WR?

The idea of the OP is to figure out how to avoid drafting WRs that are destined to sit on your roster and you can’t play them, or trade them, or drop them.  I just give them the wr6 name.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

The idea of the OP is to figure out how to avoid drafting WRs that are destined to sit on your roster and you can’t play them, or trade them, or drop them.  I just give them the wr6 name.

Generically, instead of trying to avoid the wr6 try to identify how a particular player will become top 20. If you can't then shove him down the priority list.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

The idea of the OP is to figure out how to avoid drafting WRs that are destined to sit on your roster and you can’t play them, or trade them, or drop them.  I just give them the wr6 name.

Zed's response kind of gets to the heart of it.  Don't draft them if you don't like them.  Divest early when you're out on them even at a lower rate just to get some roi.  Take another player higher than recommended.

Nobody is forcing you to take the wr6. It's your team.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds something similar to minimal WR drafting which does place a high priority on having one or two top WR but focuses all depth spots at other positions like RB who may only need a injury or something to gain a lot of opportunity.

My strategy has generally been the opposite. i just try to have the best players I can acquire and if that means I have 10 WR so be it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Zed's response kind of gets to the heart of it.  Don't draft them if you don't like them.  Divest early when you're out on them even at a lower rate just to get some roi.  Take another player higher than recommended.

Nobody is forcing you to take the wr6. It's your team.

I just don’t see the upside in rostering players you can’t play, trade, or drop.  How to do a better job in identifying these players and if possible do it before you draft them.  Or at least trade them before it becomes obvious.

Edited by JohnnyU
Link to post
Share on other sites

🤷‍♂️ depends on the format. In many of mine you can start 5 WRs, so WR6s hold their value sufficiently to be worth drafting.

With smaller lineups, I'd agree that it's best to trade up most often and go after the studs. You will probably miss out on some, but overall take the blue chip over a few lottery tickets.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I just don’t see the upside in rostering players you can’t play, trade, or drop.  How to do a better job in identifying these players and if possible do it before you draft them.  Or at least trade them before it becomes obvious.

Use more analytics, man. DLF and PFF and Rotounderworld and other companies are doing groundbreaking work with certain conditions that are met for top 36 or 24 guys. Be on the lookout for stuff that checks boxes that you'd otherwise think weren't important. I know you like to watch film, so do that, too, but it turns out most of the top guys meet a certain threshold of production in college or a relative share. If you add the combine testing measurements to that, you can get a pretty good feel on who should be excluded, and that's half of the battle. There are guys that will have never produced, or produced at a late age, and you can divine from that certain things about their bust likelihood. That's the important part. To weed out guys that are likely to bust. You'll miss some, but statistically not many.

As far as affirmatively getting guys that will produce, well, that's after the screens what film, draft capital, coaching scheme, surrounding players, and positional situation on the team they're going to are for. To sort of suss out whether or not they'll get their opportunity in the pros.

That's my opinion, anyway. Use the stats at your disposal to weed out, then pick the ones you think have a direct path to stardom.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

In reality it is nearly impossible to avoid drafting a WR6 unless you roster no more than five. 

Crappy jokes aside, I take a realistic approach to WR's I draft. They are harder to project as prospects coming out of college than any other position for me. I do my research and homework and hope I select good ones. I hope they are all WR4's or better but, realistically I know I'll land a WR6 or two. Recognizing poor choices (for whatever reasons) and acknowledging the mistake as early as possible helps to limit the angst of a "wasted roster slot."

I'm sorry, I haven't figured out a sure-fire way to timely recognize and acknowledge those mistakes in almost 25 years enjoying this hobby. Sometimes I see the writing on the wall early enough to salvage part of my investment in a particular player, often times I do not. I believe those times my inherent bias towards my own brilliance gets in the way of an honest assessment of the player(s) in question and what his situation is.

Maybe the answer to the OP's question lies less on the field of play and more in the mindset of the fantasy footballer. I find that an acknowledgment of my own biases towards outcomes I want to see happen can help to clear up and focus my vision on the reality of current situation.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Ruffrodys05 said:

 I believe those times my inherent bias towards my own brilliance gets in the way of an honest assessment of the player(s) in question and what his situation is.

 I find that an acknowledgment of my own biases towards outcomes I want to see happen can help to clear up and focus my vision on the reality of current situation.

Interesting. Yeah, good points. Confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance are huge issues facing the talent assessor.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Ruffrodys05 said:

In reality it is nearly impossible to avoid drafting a WR6 unless you roster no more than five. 

Crappy jokes aside, I take a realistic approach to WR's I draft. They are harder to project as prospects coming out of college than any other position for me. I do my research and homework and hope I select good ones. I hope they are all WR4's or better but, realistically I know I'll land a WR6 or two. Recognizing poor choices (for whatever reasons) and acknowledging the mistake as early as possible helps to limit the angst of a "wasted roster slot."

I'm sorry, I haven't figured out a sure-fire way to timely recognize and acknowledge those mistakes in almost 25 years enjoying this hobby. Sometimes I see the writing on the wall early enough to salvage part of my investment in a particular player, often times I do not. I believe those times my inherent bias towards my own brilliance gets in the way of an honest assessment of the player(s) in question and what his situation is.

Maybe the answer to the OP's question lies less on the field of play and more in the mindset of the fantasy footballer. I find that an acknowledgment of my own biases towards outcomes I want to see happen can help to clear up and focus my vision on the reality of current situation.

Don’t be afraid to go against the grain. When everyone has Ruggs listed above Justin Jefferson don’t be afraid to reach. Don’t care what your league mates might think if you take someone outside of the consensus. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Foosball God said:

The problem isn't in taking a WR6, it's in holding on to them for too long when it's clear that's all they will ever be.

Absolutely. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...