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Best Positional Values / Deepest Groupings in the 2021 NFL Draft


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I didn't seen a general draft thread so opted to make a new thread to discuss what NFL team strategies should be looking at who is available overall. I looked at Todd McShay's rankings and here are the breakdowns by position based on the number of players with a particular rating score (100 is the highest).

	90s	80s	70s	60s	50s	40s
QB	5	0	3	0	1	1
RB	1	2	3	3	3	4
WR	4	6	8	8	9	4
TE	1	2	2	1	2	4
C	0	2	1	2	1	1
OT	3	4	4	1	3	1
G	1	2	4	4	3	3
ILB	3	3	1	5	4	0
OLB	0	2	3	2	1	2
DE	2	5	3	2	9	0
DT	0	2	6	4	2	1
CB	4	4	9	6	4	1
S	1	3	3	4	6	6
PK	0	0	0	0	1	0

That adds up to 231 players . . . or basically 6 rounds worth. There are 119 additional players in the score of 30-39 range (basically 7th round options). Players in the 80+ range will likely be gone in Round 2 (or early 3rd). Based on the positional breakdowns, it seems like there are a ton of WR, CB, and S that should be available in the middle rounds. Not many OLB or OT in the mid to late rounds this year.

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5 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I didn't seen a general draft thread so opted to make a new thread to discuss what NFL team strategies should be looking at who is available overall. I looked at Todd McShay's rankings and here are the breakdowns by position based on the number of players with a particular rating score (100 is the highest).


	90s	80s	70s	60s	50s	40s
QB	5	0	3	0	1	1
RB	1	2	3	3	3	4
WR	4	6	8	8	9	4
TE	1	2	2	1	2	4
C	0	2	1	2	1	1
OT	3	4	4	1	3	1
G	1	2	4	4	3	3
ILB	3	3	1	5	4	0
OLB	0	2	3	2	1	2
DE	2	5	3	2	9	0
DT	0	2	6	4	2	1
CB	4	4	9	6	4	1
S	1	3	3	4	6	6
PK	0	0	0	0	1	0

That adds up to 231 players . . . or basically 6 rounds worth. There are 119 additional players in the score of 30-39 range (basically 7th round options). Players in the 80+ range will likely be gone in Round 2 (or early 3rd). Based on the positional breakdowns, it seems like there are a ton of WR, CB, and S that should be available in the middle rounds. Not many OLB or OT in the mid to late rounds this year.

Nice work

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5 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I didn't seen a general draft thread so opted to make a new thread to discuss what NFL team strategies should be looking at who is available overall. I looked at Todd McShay's rankings and here are the breakdowns by position based on the number of players with a particular rating score (100 is the highest).


	90s	80s	70s	60s	50s	40s
QB	5	0	3	0	1	1
RB	1	2	3	3	3	4
WR	4	6	8	8	9	4
TE	1	2	2	1	2	4
C	0	2	1	2	1	1
OT	3	4	4	1	3	1
G	1	2	4	4	3	3
ILB	3	3	1	5	4	0
OLB	0	2	3	2	1	2
DE	2	5	3	2	9	0
DT	0	2	6	4	2	1
CB	4	4	9	6	4	1
S	1	3	3	4	6	6
PK	0	0	0	0	1	0

That adds up to 231 players . . . or basically 6 rounds worth. There are 119 additional players in the score of 30-39 range (basically 7th round options). Players in the 80+ range will likely be gone in Round 2 (or early 3rd). Based on the positional breakdowns, it seems like there are a ton of WR, CB, and S that should be available in the middle rounds. Not many OLB or OT in the mid to late rounds this year.

Waldman says this is a heck of a deep draft for WRs in terms of overall talent at the position (not in terms of predicted future fantasy success or who will stick in the pros) and this seems to back him up.

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For cross-reference purposes, here is similar information from the prospect rankings at NFL.com. This adds up to 251 players (so 20 more than the first list).

Their rating system is as follows . . .

7.0-7.1 - Pro Bowl talent
6.7-6.8 - Year 1 quality starter
6.5 - Boom or bust prospect
6.3-6.4 - Will be starter within first two seasons
6.1-6.2 - Good backup who could become starter
6.0 - Developmental traits-based prospect
5.8-5.9 - Backup/special-teamer

	6.8+	6.6	6.4	6.2	6	5.8
QB	1	0	3	1	3	2
RB	0	1	2	1	5	10
FB	0	0	0	0	0	1
WR	3	0	1	11	10	14
TE	1	0	0	2	1	6
C	0	0	1	3	1	1
OT	0	2	2	8	3	10
G	0	0	1	6	4	5
LB	2	0	0	6	5	7
EDGE	0	0	2	7	4	7
DE	0	0	0	3	0	7
DT	0	0	1	3	5	9
CB	1	0	2	11	4	16
S	0	0	0	5	4	10
PK	0	0	0	0	0	2
PK	0	0	0	0	0	2

Here's how the 2021 NFL.com ratings compare to other recent drafts . . .

	6.8+	6.6	6.4	6.2	6	5.8
2021	8	3	15	67	49	109
2020	5	11	10	69	40	118
2019	10	22	7	64	49	121
2018	13	14	11	69	55	109
2017	18	15	8	55	45	115
2016	21	20	4	36	34	119
2015	13	17	6	37	28	126
2014	13	10	7	20	23	145

This supports the theory that some have suggested that there aren't many legit first round picks in this draft. The first two columns only add up to 11 players. That normally is much higher. I don't know if they changed their methodology or their evaluator, as the number of players in the 6.2 and 6.0 columns took a big jump over the years.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

For cross-reference purposes, here is similar information from the prospect rankings at NFL.com. This adds up to 251 players (so 20 more than the first list).

Their rating system is as follows . . .

7.0-7.1 - Pro Bowl talent
6.7-6.8 - Year 1 quality starter
6.5 - Boom or bust prospect
6.3-6.4 - Will be starter within first two seasons
6.1-6.2 - Good backup who could become starter
6.0 - Developmental traits-based prospect
5.8-5.9 - Backup/special-teamer


	6.8+	6.6	6.4	6.2	6	5.8
QB	1	0	3	1	3	2
RB	0	1	2	1	5	10
FB	0	0	0	0	0	1
WR	3	0	1	11	10	14
TE	1	0	0	2	1	6
C	0	0	1	3	1	1
OT	0	2	2	8	3	10
G	0	0	1	6	4	5
LB	2	0	0	6	5	7
EDGE	0	0	2	7	4	7
DE	0	0	0	3	0	7
DT	0	0	1	3	5	9
CB	1	0	2	11	4	16
S	0	0	0	5	4	10
PK	0	0	0	0	0	2
PK	0	0	0	0	0	2

Here's how the 2021 NFL.com ratings compare to other recent drafts . . .


	6.8+	6.6	6.4	6.2	6	5.8
2021	8	3	15	67	49	109
2020	5	11	10	69	40	118
2019	10	22	7	64	49	121
2018	13	14	11	69	55	109
2017	18	15	8	55	45	115
2016	21	20	4	36	34	119
2015	13	17	6	37	28	126
2014	13	10	7	20	23	145

This supports the theory that some have suggested that there aren't many legit first round picks in this draft. The first two columns only add up to 11 players. That normally is much higher. I don't know if they changed their methodology or their evaluator, as the number of players in the 6.2 and 6.0 columns took a big jump over the years.

 

 

I feel like something significantly changed in their ranking system.  The drop off is too big, and it's not like we've seen talent coming out dropping off THAT much.

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9 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

This supports the theory that some have suggested that there aren't many legit first round picks in this draft. The first two columns only add up to 11 players. That normally is much higher. I don't know if they changed their methodology or their evaluator, as the number of players in the 6.2 and 6.0 columns took a big jump over the years.

 

They changed the scale last year.  They went back to older drafts and refactored the scores to match the new scale.  I've collected some of them but not enough to be able to translate them 1:1 for you, though it's probably doable

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13 hours ago, rockaction said:

Waldman says this is a heck of a deep draft for WRs in terms of overall talent at the position (not in terms of predicted future fantasy success or who will stick in the pros) and this seems to back him up.

Waldman is right. It's why I'm keeping an open mind with what to do with late round 2 and early round 3 rookie picks. Pre-draft it all looks cloudy, but I think the picture will become much clearer on the other side. When there's a flood of WR's picked day 2 some of them are going to a) get priority over IDP's picked in the same range or later and b) provide clarity on QB or WR decisions a round earlier. Avoiding the dreaded WR6 should still drive decision making, but that's more of a later into the night Friday thing than early. 

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