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RB Sony Michel (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Chiefs ≠ Bengals. Michel is game script dependent. He will get heavy use in games the Patriots are leading. There was no reason to believe the Patriots would be leading the Chiefs. And they didn't. There is every reason to believe the Patriots will be leading the Bengals. By a lot. Sony has 6 rushing touchdowns this season which have come against the Jets, Redskins, and Dolphins. Bengals fit the bill.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Fair Point. In week 2 of the FF Playoffs, I don't have the minerals. But good luck to those of you that do.
zamboni
Footballguy
IIRC, in that game against the Dolphins, he wasn’t a huge of a factor as he should have been in a 43-0 blowout. Game scripts on paper unfortunately don’t always work as expected. It’s not like the Pats have a high powered offense to blow teams out like they used to.
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Manster
Footballguy
Seems like a good analysis on paper, but I just flat out do not trust the Pats offense AT ALL.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, the patriots refused to commit to them. He had a really nice last game after it was way too late for it to matter. Also Rex Burkhead is way too involved.
I landed him as a toss in on a trade where I gave up Alvin Kamara for Mike Evans and the dude kicked in Sony Michele as a bonus to sweeten the pot for me. I actually ended up winning that trade since Kamara was terrible until week 16 and Mike Evans help me finish strong until he got hurt. Obviously since that’s a dynasty league I’m hoping for good things for Michelle, but as my fourth running back if he doesn’t work out, so be it.
In the context of when I made those statements, they appeared to be true, so if you’re asking me to eat crow over them, you’re going to have an awful long wait. We make the best guesses with the information we have at hand at the time.
as for being a “peach“, I’m not exactly sure what that means. I was pretty civi/politel in both of my responses if you’re implying otherwise.
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No he's not the same looking guy to me either and I'm so glad I sold him in the two leagues I drafted him last year after his big postseason run.
When he was drafted Mike Lombardi, who of course has contacts in NE, said that NE knew he had a bone on bone issue and knew they'd likely never give him a second contract. Really highlights how much they must have valued his college tape but that to me is the answer to your question if he will ever be right. I would say bone on bone issues don't improve over time so no.
Shame to because he actually looks like a 8-10 year vet at RB and I mean that as a compliment but just no explosion.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He looked fantastic in the preseason, and any time they decided to feature him he looked pretty good. He wasn’t bad in the playoffs.
i got him as a toss-in on a Kamara for Evans trade, so hopefully the Pats will narrow the rotation down a little.
All due respect to Lombardi, but the doom and gloom around this dude seems pretty over the top. His production was primarily limited by the Pats overall offensive decline, OL issues & having a RBBC from hell. I didn’t see anything in his play that looked like his knee was the issue. Looked more like that line can’t open holes up the middle.
of course we may never know if the Pats never commit to using him with any sort of consistency.
maybe if/when Brady moves on The Pats will run more. Maybe not. A change of scenery To a team committed to the run might well be the best thing for Michele.
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He will be fine spelling Harris next year. He was okay at times this year, but clearly lacks the burst and speed we saw at Georgia. His degenerative knee is the likely cause and he’s a player I won’t be drafting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Because Harris showed so much this year that he took the job by the reins and never looked back?
you were super impressed by Harris 4 carries for 12 yards (3 YPC) vs Michele’s 247 for 912 (3.7 YPC) & 9 TD?
I doubt Burkhead comes back, so Harris likely gets some play, but I’m not sure what your basing your theory on here.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sony Michel is best left undrafted on your team unless you get him in the sixth or seventh.
He's awful.
He's awful.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s better than people are giving him credit for.
i won’t be targeting him in redraft, but IMO he’s a hold in dynasty for now. Maybe even a buy-low.
if Burkhead is gone next year, Sony could be a centerpiece of the Pats offense. They need to get their OL issues sorted out - they’re an awful run blocking team.
But as a 6-7-8th round RB4-5 you could do worse than Michele in redraft.
New England in general kinda feels like an avoid next year, but IMO Michele is shouldering way too much of the blame.
Helps if the OL opens holes. The RB runs to where the play is designed for him to run. I saw the same result as you. And like you, I’ll also avoid Michele in redraft as anything other than BYE week filler.
but I don’t think it’s Michele’s fault that the OL sucked, and his 3.7 YPC shows he was better than people seem to think.
I understand why people will avoid him, but I also expect an over-correction to the point that he becomes a value pick next year.
sort of like how everyone overreacted following his monster preseason & drafted him way too high this year.
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rockaction
Footballguy
FYP and you've got me.sort of like how everyone overreacted follows his monster preseason and postseason last year & drafted him way too high this year.
Seriously, your points are taken and I just disagree with them. Belichick seems to disagree with us naysayers, but Bill's left a lot of points on the field in terms of player evaluation, too. He's not infallible.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - I didn’t want to rub it in too much but you’re right - his postseason last year combined with his preseason had people salivating.FYP and you've got me.
Seriously, your points are taken and I just disagree with them. Belichick seems to disagree with us naysayers, but Bill's left a lot of points on the field in terms of player evaluation, too. He's not infallible.
i recall specific discussion about how good he looked & how his knee seemed to not be a problem.
which is why it’s a little amusing to see everyone harping on his knee when it was obvious that the Pats OL was terrible at opening any holes. Most of the Pats run success seemed to be around the outside.
Also, Michele didn’t look too bad against TEN in the playoffs. 18 for 72 (4 YOC) & a TD. Most folks would call that a pretty decent day for a RB Maybe you disagree?
rockaction
Footballguy
His main problem in these threads is he has absolutely no floor to speak of. You can't use him, and you learn that quick. He utterly nuked fantasy teams early season and cost games single-handedly with his no floor performances in spots. It was an ugly thing, and one can chalk it up to usage, but good backs get their due during a game for the most part. The only comparison to him in the usage/bellcow dept. is Mixon from early to late season, but Mixon didn't absolutely kill you and if so, did so against tough defenses, not the NFL East.Also, Michele didn’t look too bad against TEN in the playoffs. 18 for 72 (4 YOC) & a TD. Most folks would call that a pretty decent day for a RB Maybe you disagree?
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He's exactly the kind of guy I would NOT be looking for as a RB4-5. With those guys I'd either want someone with big upside to become a solid starter or a high floor that is easy to plug in for bye weeks.
Sony provides neither of those. He's a guy that could get you zero points or 10 points. You can find those guys anywhere when the time comes that you need to plug one in.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This season, sure.
in a crowded backfield with an offense that was clearly in decline.
Next season could be a different story. Likely fewer mouths to feed. I expect them to retain White but both he & Burkhead could be gone.
i’m not saying Michele is the next LT2, but he’s gone from dramatically overvalued to dramatically undervalued in a hurry.
i got him essentially for free as part of a larger deal, so if be busts it’s not a trauma for me. But I do believe he’s got potential to be more valuable than he was this year.
the pendulum swings fast in FF. Recency bias to the extreme with this dude.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I just don't see what is likely to change next year. White is still on his fully guaranteed contract and is far more valuable to the team than Sony, so there is no chance they cut him. Burkhead they either keep or if not Harris can step right into his role.
The backfield will still be crowded. The offense is still likely declining.
For free, sure. But 6th-8th round I am looking for something more appealing than a TD dependent committee back that doesn't catch passes on an offense that likely won't score a lot of TDs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
as I understand it they owe White & Burkhead nothing. White has no guaranteed money, and McDaniels & Brady could be gone. So both RB could walk, but I have a hard time seeing the Pats let White go.
then again, White was a safety valve for a QB who’s arm was in decline. They may see needs in other places next year. I honestly have no idea what The Pats offense will look like next year.
we seem to take it as written in stone that the pats will he RBBC to the extreme, yet it was not that long ago they had a feature back / scat back combo to great effect.
these are both possibilities, sure. Hopefully there’s greater clarity on both by the time we’re drafting.
I agree in principal - it’s where I picked up Singletary this year (8th). But I’m saying there’s a possibility that the following happens:
• BB clearly went to Michele in the playoffs, which he did last year too. Maybe he sees that as a way forward (as so many here said he would this year) since he’s likely going to have a new OC & QB.
• Burkhead is gone, White (less likely IMO) is gone.
• If Burkhead and/or White are gone, Harris/Michele could be splitting carries. While that sounds less than ideal, it could mean more consistent play than Michele has this year with fewer mouths to feed.
• New OC (Whomever that is) is less pass happy
• NEP addresses OL in the draft / FA
if all or any combination of those things happens, I could easily see Michele as a solid value in the 6-8 round.
I’m just saying that right now we just don’t know enough to write him off. There are way too many variables in play, and what we do know is that BB trust Michele in the biggest situations, and leaned on him in the playoffs, again. That’s hard to ignore. And Michele’s production wasn’t why the Pats lost.
claims of his knee being a major issue seem overblown & unfounded given his solid production when given the touches/opportunity. The bigger issues have been 1. opportunity & 2. a poor run blocking OL.
I think there’s a strong chance that Michele vastly outperforms his draft day ADP next season & becomes something of a post-post-hype sleeper.
But I totally understand why people would avoid him altogether. A lot of people got burned by Michele two years in a row. But perspective matters - if people didn’t believe there was something there, they wouldn’t have been burned.
since I got him for free, I’m essentially playing devil’s advocate here - but if he does well, I obviously wouldn’t mind. I just see very little big picture analysis in this topic and a whole lot of “he sucks” or “the knee!” or tales of running into his OL (which literally every RB does every single game).
Mile-high view, I just don’t think we know enough to properly evaluate him for 2020. And what we do actually know shows a pretty good player who could be more than that if the opportunity presents itself. Will be good to revisit this around August to see what the Pats have done.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I get what you're saying, but we can do this exercise for any player being drafted in that range. Any player anywhere in the draft, really. Even 15th rounders we can conjure up a list of things that might happen to make them a good value. That's why they get drafted.
Sony's list of things we need to conjure up to make him a good pick there just seem far less likely to actually happen than the other guys that will be likely picked in that area to me. And his upside seems much less than the other guys that will likely be available in those same scenarios as well.
I've never been burned by Michel (I always avoid guys whose value rose based on postseason play) and I don't think his lack of interest is just spite from people that were. People are pretty universally uninterested in him whether they drafted him this past year or not.
There is no shortage of guys who have been committee backs behind bad offensive lines for whom we can dream up a scenario where they leave all that behind pop the following year. Most of them actually offer some upside as a receiver, have looked more dynamic than Sony, yet are still generally cheaper.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Again; this is why we need to wait until August to see how everything shakes out.
but I’ll disagree that Michele has less upside or greater risk than those with likely similar ADP. He has a track record of proven success.
Right now it’s not possible to know what Michele’s value will be in August. The dust needs to settle on a number of issues in NE to see what Michele’s upside actually is.
again, if people want to write him off, I get it. I just think that’s premature.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think FreeBagel just totally changed my mind with some solid analysis. If you can wait on a horse to shake out, this guy is undraftable other than in desperation or in later rounds.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I said sixth or seventh would be a good place to take him if he was there. I'm sort of convinced FreeBagel is right. I'd rather have what you did in the sixth -- a Singletary type guy -- than Sony. But, to clarify, I said this...How did that “change your mind”?
This has been your position all along.
I should have said sixth or lower, but it was implied.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah - so now you’re a DND on him, even though we have no idea what the Patriots are going to look like in 2020?
That’s your prerogative. I suspect a great many others will agree with you & follow suit.
which, again, makes Michele a potential bargain in the 8th or maybe even later.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, not really. For clarity's sake, I would not draft him as high as previously indicated. I said he's virtually undraftable, but that's at what will be a likely inflated ADP.
I may, indeed, reserve the right to take him in the ninth or tenth or something.
I haven't started my rank orders yet. I get the fresh in your mind thing, but I llke to see where these guys are going to go and how the front offices and coaches talk about them before I rank order. So that happens late for me. Which ain't no thing, as I draft redraft and late, though I may break through and get a dyno this year with IDP. (Which I could use help with, mang.)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m really not the “defend Sony Michele to the teeth” dude I may seem to be based on my above contributions. I try to be measured in my takes about him. He may well be worthless.
but there is at least the possibility that he’s more valuable next year than he was this, and he was actually quite valuable this year if inconsistent. If the consistency is improved, Michele’s floor will be significantly higher.
Will be happy to help. HMU whenever, my PM’s are open. IDP is the best way to play FF in my humble opinion. Adds a ton of entertainment while watching, too.
rockaction
Footballguy
I know that, GB. Just discussing.
Thanks. I might take you up on it, all things falling into place and whatnot.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
IDP is the best way to play ff.
Also want to take this moment to congratulate myself again for trading away Michel for Godwin this preseason.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This really isn't that complicated. In the 29 regular season games Michel had played, he's averaged 68.5 YFS, 0.45 TD, and 0.65 receptions per game. That works out to 9.55 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 10.2 ppg in 1 ppr leagues. That's like RB25 in standard and RB35 in PPR. That's what he is. People got smitten on how he did in the playoffs last year, but that's not a regular season reality. He's an ok fantasy flex player . . . maybe a really weak RB2. I don't see that changing unless he starts taking half the workload away from James White (or the NE receiving back, whomever that may be). His fantasy value is based on games with a heavy workload and goal line carries. NE struggled to get to the goal line this year and struggled even more once they got there. IMO, Michel in PPR league should probably be a 7th or 8th round pick.
jm192
Footballguy
I suppose the Pats may commit to the run more in a Brady-less team. I can't see him having a monster season without Brady after the pi$$ poor season he just had with him. The TD potential doesn't feel nearly as high.
That said, I think he's going for a song and dance eat this point. If you're getting a 250 touch guy that late, you could do worse.
That said, I think he's going for a song and dance eat this point. If you're getting a 250 touch guy that late, you could do worse.
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
The sad thing is, I inherited Harris, and after watching him on highlights, Michel might be the best they've got right now. But for what people were making Michel out to be? Not so much. Not even close. He's lousy, and not startable because of his floor.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Patriots better plan on winning a lot of 17-14 games next year, if there is one.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE won every game they allowed 17 or fewer points last year and lost every game they allowed 20 or more. They won 3 games when Brady threw for 0 TD and 3 more when he threw for 1 TD. They went 3-1 with Brady throwing for under 200 passing yards. The point being, Brady wasn’t winning them games last year, the defense was. How good the defense is will go a lot farther in determining how the team will do than how the offense does.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm not just talking about Brady. Brady elevated that offense. Now that he's gone, you can sing the tune all you want but I'm not buying. When I look at the Patriots, I'm talking about the rest of the hot steaming professional garbage the Patriots are trying to pass off as an offense this year.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Were Harris's highlights three runs up the gut and ten minutes of him cheering from the bench?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
lol
I’m cautiously optimistic about Sony’s 2020 prospects.
he was a toss in on what was mainly a (my) Kamara for (his) Evans deal so I’m not heavily invested, but in a Brady-less offense I have to believe they’ll be pounding the rock more. Michele seemed to do pretty well when given opportunity.
I guess it comes down to expectations. Hoping for a RB3/volume play type might be a worthwhile target to a FF team that needs it. If he can consistently get ~12-15 touches, he’s a weekly flex play.
If it’s down around 9-12 touches he’s more realistically a BYE week filler.
i doubt he’s ever an 18-20+ touch RB, but for what he is he could be useful in a post Brady NE world.
and if he’s not, he’s probably dirt cheap, so...not much lost if he doesn’t work out.
