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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

I'm going to try and spend my time in this thread instead of the Politics Forum one because it is disintegrating into Biden vs Trump.

We still don't have a firm grasp on what Putin's goal is here, but troops have moved in on all three sides (East from Russia, South with landings from the Black Sea and North out of Belarus, with the help of Belarus troops).  There were explosions in Kharkiv (East), Odessa (South port) and Kiev (capital in the center north) starting around 5am Ukraine time (about 11:00pm EST).  The vast majority of the strikes were to Ukrainian military targets, but some collateral damage (including a hospital) has been reported.  How far and how fast the ground troops are moving is unkown to us at this point.  Ukraine has been preparing for this for 8 years since Russia took Crimea, but it still has been a shock to the people as they were starting to think it would never happen.

Many people are fleeing to the Eastern portion of the country and the city of Lviv, but the Ukrainian government told the people to stay in their homes.  Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, refused to flee the country earlier this week and is declaring they will fight Russia and asking for help from the world.

No nation or international organization is obligated to help with troops and no one is currently saying they will send troops in to help.  Ukraine is likely in this alone within their own borders.  The US has moved troops to the NATO nations that either border Russia, Belarus or Ukraine (i.e. Poland, Romania and the Baltic states).

This is as real of a top tier military war as we've seen since WW2.  The EU, US, UK and NATO appear to be willing to sanction Russia and send supplies to Ukraine but that will likely be it.

Godspeed Ukraine.

 
Really wish just one time China would say "You know..we are siding with the USA on this one"

Then Russia who say  Whoaaa
I think they will.  Maybe not say it out loud, but behind closed doors.  I know there is a lot of fear and speculation that China will use this opportunity to go after Taiwan.  That would pretty much be a declaration of economic war against the US.  I just can't see China wanting to start an economic war with us.  As much as we need them to make our stuff, I think they need our money more.    

 
I think they will.  Maybe not say it out loud, but behind closed doors.  I know there is a lot of fear and speculation that China will use this opportunity to go after Taiwan.  That would pretty much be a declaration of economic war against the US.  I just can't see China wanting to start an economic war with us.  As much as we need them to make our stuff, I think they need our money more.    
We're not in a good position to flip China the bird economically but in another year or two, we'll be producing things here we wouldn't have considered before the pandemic (computer chips, batteries, drugs). This will allow us to have a more leveraged conversation about cutting ties with some of the China lifelines we depend on now. It will be painful and pricing will probably be higher but the US will be in a much better position economically than we are today. Some of the production facilities we are building now are massive.

 
Now lots of reports of fighting around the Chernobyl disaster site and that the nuclear waste storage facility has been destroyed.

Oof.  Ukraine saying this is an act of war against all of Europe (likely to try and draw some actual military aid).

 
We're not in a good position to flip China the bird economically but in another year or two, we'll be producing things here we wouldn't have considered before the pandemic (computer chips, batteries, drugs). This will allow us to have a more leveraged conversation about cutting ties with some of the China lifelines we depend on now. It will be painful and pricing will probably be higher but the US will be in a much better position economically than we are today. Some of the production facilities we are building now are massive.
Exactly.  I think of the FoxConn factory in WI that didn't pan out like it was hoped, but it's been and being built and the size of a small country.  They will be plenty capable of making all sorts of stuff there.  Pretty sure there is something big like that going up in Ohio too? 

If not in the US, and if we're looking for cheaper labor, I wouldn't mind seeing a few more factories in Mexico or Central/South America instead of China.  Help our southern neighbors add some jobs and build their economies. 

 
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Reports of civilian areas being bombed and some speculation that it is intentional to try and intimidate the Ukrainian population.

Marco Rubio providing some decent analysis on twitter.

 
Exactly.  I think of the FoxConn factory in WI that didn't pan out like it was hoped, but it's been and being built and the size of a small country.  They will be plenty capable of making all sorts of stuff there.  Pretty sure there is something big like that going up in Ohio too

If not in the US, and if we're looking for cheaper labor, I wouldn't mind seeing a few more factories in Mexico or Central/South America instead of China.  Help our southern neighbors add some jobs and build their economies. 
I think you're referring to the planned Intel plant in the Columbus area.  Good to see, but it's a slow process as wafer fabs tend to take years to get up and running.

 
Exactly.  I think of the FoxConn factory in WI that didn't pan out like it was hoped, but it's been and being built and the size of a small country.  They will be plenty capable of making all sorts of stuff there.  Pretty sure there is something big like that going up in Ohio too? 

If not in the US, and if we're looking for cheaper labor, I wouldn't mind seeing a few more factories in Mexico or Central/South America instead of China.  Help our southern neighbors add some jobs and build their economies. 
There is a huge chip manufacturing facility going in around Columbus, OH. There is a massive battery facility going in Kentucky and Memphis? for Ford. This kinda reminds of me of WWII ramp up (on a much smaller level). I suspect a Chinese incursion into Taiwan would only push the proverbial pedal further down, accelerating the process.

 
Well crap.  Russia is moving in.

They are "recognizing" the factions they planted as separate from Ukraine and are moving in to "assist" them with establishing control against the big bad Ukrainian government.

The ruse was established and justification manufactured so here we are and tanks have now rolled in (though unmarked).  Not sure if the ultimate goal is to take Kiev or not, but the war on the ground has started.
I don't think it's a reach to believe that these factions exist given that we undermined the sitting, pro-Russian, Ukrainian president to install a figure head who would be more receptive to negotiating with EU.  We set this wheel in motion 8 years ago.  It was just a matter of time.

 
Reports of civilian areas being bombed and some speculation that it is intentional to try and intimidate the Ukrainian population.

Marco Rubio providing some decent analysis on twitter.
My link was a video that was a direct attack on a civilian village. No question about it that the russians are doing this intentionally.

 
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's public address to the people of Russia.

It was apparently spoken in Russian.  Found a text version of the translation on Reddit:

Ukrainian President Zelensky's speech before the attack:

"I have initiated a call today with the president of the Russian Federation. The result - silence. Although silence should be in Donbass.

That is why today, I want to come with an appeal to all citizens of Russia. Not as President. I am appealing to the people of Russia as a citizen of Ukraine. We share more than two thousand kilometres of border. Around it, today, is your army: almost 200,000 soldiers; thousands of military units. Your leadership has approved their movement towards us. Towards the territory of another country. This step can become the start of a big war on the European continent. The whole world is talking about what can happen any day now. A reason can appear at any moment. Any provocation. Any spark. A spark that has the potential of burning everything down.

You are told that this flame will bring freedom to the people of Ukraine. But the people of Ukraine are free. They remember their past, and are building their own future. They are building it, not destroying it, as you are told everyday on TV. Ukraine in your news and Ukraine in reality are two completely different countries. The most important difference is that ours is real.

You are being told that we are nazis. But how can a nation be called nazist after sacrificing more than 8 million lives to eradicate nazism. How can I be a nazi, when my grandfather has survived the whole war as part of the Soviet infantry, and has died a colonel in an independent Ukraine. You are told that we hate Russian culture. But how can a culture be hated? Any culture. Neighbours are always enriching each other culturally. Yet, that does not make them one entity, and does not separate people into “us” and “them”. We are different, but that is not a reason to be enemies. We want to build our own history. Peacefully, calmly, and truthfully.

You are told that I am ordering to attack the Donbass. To shoot. To bomb without questions. Although there are questions: To shoot at whom? To bomb what?

Donetsk? To which I have been dozens of times. I have seen their faces and eyes.

Artema street? On which I have been on many walks with my friends in the past.

Donbass arena? Where I have been rooting with the locals for our boys during the Euros.

Shcherbakova Park? In which we were drinking together after our team has lost

Lugansk? The home of my best friend’s mom. The place where my best friend’s father is buried.

Note that I am now speaking in Russian, yet no one in Russia understands what these names, streets, and events mean. This is all foreign to you. Unknown. This is our land. This is our history. What are you going to fight for? And against whom?

Many of you have visited Ukraine in the past. Many of you have relatives here. Some of you studied in our universities. Befriended Ukrainian people. You’re familiar with our character, with our people, our principles. You know what we cherish the most. Look inside you, listen to the voice of reason, of common sense. Hear our voices. The people of Ukraine want peace. Ukrainian authorities want peace. We want it, and we make it. We do everything in our powers. We are not alone. It’s true, Ukraine is supported by many countries. Why? Because we are not talking about peace at any cost. We are talking about peace, and about principles, justice. About everyone’s right to define their own future, of safety, and everyone’s right to live without threat. All this is important to us. All this is important for peace. I know for sure that this is also important for you. We know for sure that we don’t want war. Neither cold, hot, or hybrid.

But, if we are threatened; If someone is trying to take away our country, our freedom, our lives. The lives of our children. We are going to defend ourselves. Not attack. Defend. By attacking us, you are going to see our faces. Not backs. Our faces.

War is a big distress, and it has a big price - in all meanings of this word. People lose their money, reputation, quality of life, freedom, and most importantly, people lose their loved ones. Lose themselves. A lot of things are always lacking in war. But what is in abundance is pain, dirt, blood, and death. Thousands. Tens of thousands of deaths. You are told that Ukraine is a threat to Russia. This was not true before, not now, and won’t be in the future. You are demanding security assurances from NATO. We are also demanding assurances of our security. The security of Ukraine from you. From Russia. And from other signatories of the Budapest memorandum. Today, we are not part of random security alliances. The security of Ukraine is tied to the security of our neighbours. That is why we are now talking about the security of all Europe. But our main goal is peace in Ukraine, and the safety of our citizens. Of Ukrainians. We are determined to let everyone know about this, including you. War is going to deprive everyone of any assurances. No one will have assurances of security.

Who is going to suffer from this the most? The people.

Who does not want this more than anyone? The people.

Who can prevent all this from happening? The people.

If these people are among you. I am sure they are. Public figures, journalists, musicians, actors, athletes, scientists, doctors, bloggers, stand-up comics, tiktokers, and others. Ordinary people. Ordinary, simple people. Men, women, old, young, fathers, and most importantly - mothers. Just as much as the people in Ukraine, no matter how much they try to convince you of the opposite.

I know that my announcement will not be aired on Russian television. But the citizens of Russia have to see it. They need to know the truth. And the truth is, that this needs to stop, before it’s too late. And if the authorities of Russia don’t want to talk to us, for the sake of peace, maybe they will talk to you.

Do the people of Russia want war? I would’ve very much liked to be able to answer this, but the answer depends only on you - citizens of the Russian Federation."

Credit to /u/nelyubov for the translation.

 
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Stolen from @massraider in the PF thread:

Massraider has been consistently providing some really good info on this.  He seems as obsessed about it as I am.  :loco:
It's good to see that the Russian people, to some extent, are opposing Putin's action as well.  I hope the sanctions cripple the hell out of his country ...although that will probably hurt the people more than it will him.  :sigh:

 
It's good to see that the Russian people, to some extent, are opposing Putin's action as well.  I hope the sanctions cripple the hell out of his country ...although that will probably hurt the people more than it will him.  :sigh:
I believe the goal is to cripple the power brokers around Putin enough that they make him stop.

Someone in the PF equated it to the guards assassinating Roman Emperors when they went too far.

 
Biden's address and Q & A answered some questions:

-We aren't sending troops to Ukraine

-Sanctions were harsh but we didn't do everything possible (excluding Russia from SWIFT still out there)

-We will defend all NATO allies with our military

 
I'm just following the reddit live thread on r/worldnews.  Seems as good a source as any.  The networks are not really giving a bunch of value here imo

 
No possible way that will backfire on Russia.
It's always good to see other countries not named US make colossal #### ups in front of the world although, in this case, I'd prefer it didn't result in the irradiation of a quarter of the world.

 
It's always good to see other countries not named US make colossal #### ups in front of the world although, in this case, I'd prefer it didn't result in the irradiation of a quarter of the world.
I can agree with this, and in fact, I feel bad for the soldiers who are put in harm’s way because Putin decided to become Ivan the Terrible Redux.

 
Now lots of reports of fighting around the Chernobyl disaster site and that the nuclear waste storage facility has been destroyed.

Oof.  Ukraine saying this is an act of war against all of Europe (likely to try and draw some actual military aid).
WTF?  That's very strange.  Makes me think the chain of command is a bit loopy in this invasion.

 
I can agree with this, and in fact, I feel bad for the soldiers who are put in harm’s way because Putin decided to become Ivan the Terrible Redux.
Russian soldiers have historically done pretty well when defending the Rodina.  Not so much in their wars of conquest (hi Finland, Afghanistan, etc).  I doubt these Russian soldiers are filled with fire.

 
Russian soldiers have historically done pretty well when defending the Rodina.  Not so much in their wars of conquest (hi Finland, Afghanistan, etc).  I doubt these Russian soldiers are filled with fire.
I’m speaking more of the fact they’ll be exposed to at least some radiation, and have to deal with the effects of that.

 
Someone give me a snapshot of Belarus. Russian puppet state?
Yes.  It's nickname is "White Russia" which I'm not 100% sure what that means, but the ties are close.

Lukashenko (their President) has been called the "last dictator of Europe" and was nearly ousted by some more pro-democracy candidates 2 years ago.  He ended up killing them, putting them in jail or threatening them until they fled and he narrowly stayed in power.  Word is he got some help from Putin and has buddied up to him closely ever since.

Right before the invasion, Russian troops moved into Belarus and started doing joint exercises with Belarusian troops.  Lukashenko mocked the West's intelligence reports saying they were a waste of money and completely wrong and stated that the Russian and Belarusian armies had essentially merged into one fighting force.

At around 5:30 am this morning (Ukrainian time), Belarusian troops marched into Ukraine alongside Russian troops and began fighting against the Ukrainian border patrol and have continued in with them toward Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

 
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From reddit, apply salt as needed:

Putin is bent on replacing Ukraines government with his goddaughters dad on the helm so that it can be a puppet nation and subordinate to Russia. The president of Ukraine and his team should probably save themselves and shorten the timeline of this war and leave Ukraine. Because they will be unnecessarily killed or imprisoned for no wrongdoing on their part. It will be difficult though to build up a anti-russia stance militarily but it might be the only safe and quick resolution to this unnecessary war. Alternatively, Ukraine fights till their last breath but I dont think that will happen since there are a good amount of russian supporters in Ukraine and Russia will probably topple Kyiv in no time.

 
(I know you’re just quoting a rando Reddit post so not direct @ you)

in some regions

seems like every major city in Russia has a massive civilian protest against the war today 
I don't recall seeing a huge march of Ukrainians welcoming their liberators, either. 

And ahh, I been looking

 
Someone give me a snapshot of Belarus. Russian puppet state?
Yes.  It's nickname is "White Russia" which I'm not 100% sure what that means, but the ties are close.
In the 18th and 19th centuries, the term “White Russian” described ethnic Russians living in the area between Russia and Poland (today this includes Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia and Moldova).

More specifically, in the 20th century it meant those who fought against the Soviet Red Army in the Russian Civil War (1918 to 1921).

 
Yea I'm aware. I have this cult fascination with Chernobyl ever since I ran across the Kidd of Speed website quite by accident when trying to find the end of the internet back in the early 2000's. I still wouldn't want to overnight in the red forest.

Honestly, don't think they are stupid enough to get close to the actual site. It would be a silly waste of personnel if they start dropping from radiation poisoning. 

 
Belarus is ruled by an authoritarian regime (since 1994) which is barley clinging to power following their latest fraudulent elections in 2020.

Basically Putin/Russia stans with very close economic & military ties to Russia.

 
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I mean it sounds like the Russian army isn't just dominating and the Russian people might not be just thrilled with this idea.  I think give it another day or two and they roll over though and everyone goes back to tik Tok

 

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