I actually like the 11th pick over say 7th thru 10th.Bump. There's got to be other unfortunate souls with the 11th pick.
Pretty much the same strat for me, but I'll deviate a little.My league where I'm drafting from the 11-hole gives QBs 6pts/TD. With this in mind, I usually gun for Portis or Lynch and then try to land Manning at the first turn. If not, then I either have to wait and hope I can get Palmer in the 3rd, or I reach for Romo.At the 3/4 turn, if I went RB/QB at the 1/2, I then go WR/RB, depending on who's available. This crappy thing here, is that the DD nearly 100% of the time tells me to take Edge as my RB here. I'm questioning that a LOT these days, especially when Edge has come back to me in many drafts at the 5/6. I'm thinking I would like a little more upside from my RB2, and am now looking at McFadden or even reaching for TJones.At the 5/6 turn, again I go for my RB3, and my WR2. If the value is there in a TE, I will go Winslow or Gonzo if they are still on the board and fill my WRs later.7/8 turn I usually go with a DST in MIN or SD, and then another WR. That seems like a reach, I know, but I'm finding that unless you reach a little at the 11 spot, you are always playing catch-up, rather than dictating the pace.9/10 I either go RB/WR for the 9.11 pick, depending on the value available. the 10.02 pick, I usually grab my QB2.The rest are just filled on who I need, but I take my kicker at 12.02 usually.The significant alteration I go with depends who falls to me in the first round. I have had Moss/TO on the 1/2 turn, and if they're both on the board, screw it, I'm taking them. If this is the case, I usually shoot for Palmer in the 3/4, if not, then McNabb at the 5/6, if not then I go Garrard/Cutler back-to-back at the 7/8 turn.Since most of the value in the 1st round is RB, we get the last crack at the "top" RBs, but we get first at the elite WRs (or QBs), so I think its prudent to take 1 of the "elites". I have even tried going WR/WR or WR/QB and had some drafts turn out. Still, my strongest drafts are when I go RB/QB/WR and have a "top" TE by rnd 6 and either MIN or SD by 8.It seems the more I mock, the more confused I become....I'm at #11 in one league, #10 (12 team) in another (non-PPR). I've done quite a few mocks over the last several days, and here's what I'm seeing:Round 1: Pretty much a choice between Lynch, Portis, MBIII here. I've been snagging Portis because I trust him more than the other two (if Buff LT Peters gets in camp and is healthy Lynch might edge out Portis for me). In all the mocks I've done both Brady AND P. Manning have gone in first 11 picks.Round 2: LJ, MJD, Wayne, Edwards. I've decided I pretty much HAVE to go WR here. The value at RB later is much greater IMO than WR later. Once TO slid this far, the other times I've taken Wayne, but Edwards is creeping up my radar.Round 3: Welker, Boldin, Greg Jennings, ROY. Consistently going WR as RB value continues to slide. If you HAVE to get a QB, Big Ben MAY slide this far (got him once).Round 4: McFadden, Willie Parker, Jacobs, Selvin Young, Bush, Maroney, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson. Pretty much where you find value. I've been waffling between McFadden and Homes here, setting up a decision in Round 5 to either get my 2nd RB or 3 WR.In most of the drafts I've done after Round 4 you're looking at the Hasselbecks, Favres, Bulgers of the QB world. I've been waiting to take Eli or Cutler or Rodgers, as I see their baselines about the same (too many ?s with the older guys). A typical core for my mock teams has ended up looking like this:QB: Eli, J. Cambell (or Rivers or Rodgers)RB: Portis or Lynch, McFadden or Maroney or Bush, Selvin Young or Lyndale WhiteWR: Wayne, Boldin or Jennings, Cotchery or Coles or Driver, Curryetc...I'd feel pretty confident with that group, although it'd be an uphill climb vs. the teams with picks 1-3 as far as I've seen.
facook, you are my hero!
I understand your feelings about Berrian. I've always been a bit of a homer of his. Seems like he always breaks free for a couple of long reception opportunities. I expect something along the lines of 70 yds, .4 TDs/game. If I came out of Weeks 1 and 2 with Berrian giving me 120 yds and a TD, I'd feel like I protected Smith pretty well. The downside is that Minny plays GB and Indy those first two weeks, so it's not like Tavaris is throwing against weak Ds.Thanks for the kudos though. I thought that this might be a useful tool for some guys bummed about #11.Nice work from the 11th spot. Loved every one of your picks Rounds 1-7. I'm bullish on Berrian with Tavaris there. But it's Round 8 so it's a crapshoot more or less then. You ended up with Scheffler regardless later (solid pick) & your team looks solid everywhere. Nice work
Well I kinda broke my promise. I took Gore at 1.11 and at 2.02 I had the choice between Reggie Wayne and Marshawn Lynch.I went Lynch. I went with Anquan Boldin and Calvin Johnson in the 3rd and 4th followed by Edge and McNabb in the 5th and 6th.My goal is to end up with one of the Top 3 receivers (Moss, Wayne, Owens) at either 11 or 14.
If Moss is still there, I'm taking him.
If Moss is the only receiver off the board, I'm taking RB at 11 figuring that 12/13 will go RB/WR and I'll take the remaining one form the Big 3.
My problem (which I think is unlikely) is what happens if 2 of the 3 WR go in the Top 10? If Brady has also been taken, there should be some prime RB. If I take the third Wr at 11, does 12/13 go RB-RB?If that's the case then I end up with Portis or Lynch/Owens just in the wrong order.
Your scoring and leaguemates sound a lot like mine. Drafted last night and ended up with a similar first few rounds:Moss 1.11Just finished a redraft from the 11 spot. (12 teams/14rds, 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1k, 1def; all tds 6pts, no ppr).
To preface; there are a couple of owners who are while not new to the game do make some questionable picks each year.
I had planned on taking portis or lynch at 11 but both were gone.
1.11 - Randy Moss (didnt think he'd be there). 9rbs/Brady taken before him
1.12 - Peyton
2.01 - TO
2.02 - Larry Johnson (thought about Reggie Wayne here; but couldn't do it).
- Expected players go in between my picks but early qb selections (3.1 - Derek Anderson, 3.6 - Donovan Mcnabb).
- Had been looking at Torry Holt but he was selected 3.9
3.11 - Brandon Jacobs
- Would have taken Plax here if Jacobs was gone
3.12 - Wes Welker
4.01 - Jason Witten (yeah - he still doesn't have any RBs)
4.02 - Plaxico
- Thought about Big Ben here, and with Moss/Plax having the same early bye week had me chasing some WR's later but Plax was highest on my board here.
5.11 - Edge
-
5.12 - Thomas Jones
6.01 - Lendale White
6.02 - Brandon Marshall
Thru 6
RB - LJ/Jacobs/Edge
WR - Moss/Plax/B Marshall
7.11 - Joey Galloway (late bye week and what look to be some good matchups early in the year while Marshall serves his time)
- Evans/D Bowe/Cotchery/Roddy White/Curtis/Driver/Chambers/Berrian all go in round 6/7
8.02 - Hasselback, not sure who he's going to throw to but 11th qb off the board. Followed up with Delhomme at 10.02.
9.11 - Vincent Jackson; will need a WR3 week 4.
11.11 - Todd Heap, last tight end taken (O. Daniels picked at 10.12)
QB - Hass/Delhomee
RB - LJ/Jacobs/Edge
WR - Moss/Plax/Marshall/Galloway/VJackson
TE - Heap
Definitely a few other teams in the league that I like on paper more than this one, but there you go.
Damn man... I can only hope mine goes that well. I would take that team in a second, but I would try to pry Ward out of someone's hand if possible, and have my finger on Droughns' trigger...Your scoring and leaguemates sound a lot like mine. Drafted last night and ended up with a similar first few rounds:Moss 1.11Lynch 2.02 (Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees all off the board!)Jacobs 3.11Plax 4.02 (Big Ben was already gone- I was hoping for him at this spot)Cotchery 5.11Cooley 6.02 (I wasn't happy with any of the available WR's and RB's at this spot) Burleson 7.11 (Week 4 bye issues as well)Cutler 8.02 (11 QB's taken before him and I guessed correctly that I wouldn't have to reach)Deangelo Williams 9.11Chester Taylor 10.02Chris Johnson 11.11Schaub 12.02 (Same bye as Cutler, but I'm not going to worry about one week)Etc.My backup RB's are a crapshoot, but I'm definitely happy with my WR's. I came out of last year's draft with a WR stable of Lee Evans, Coles, Kennison, and Jerry Porter and I wasn't going to let that happen again this year. Overall, I can't complain.
Shocked you got Calvin in the 6th round - amazing value. My draft is tomorrow, and I'm thinking I'll have to spend pick 4.02 if I want him. That said, at 4.02 he'll be at least the 15th WR off the board, and most likely closer to 20th WR. I think he definitely outperforms that slot and finishes just within top 10 if not higher. Anyone see better value at WR in the 4th round? Maybe Boldin, Holt, or S. Smith?This is my 3rd year using the Draft Dominatior and every year I get better. But this year I feel like a 3rd year WR in his breakout year. Well maybe not a breakout cuz for the past 2 years Im always in the superbowl..
DD Setup
1.2 weights on division games & playoff games. 1.0 weight after round 9 and using comp. player feature
VBD baseline "configure by position" based off leagues history for the first 9 rounds
VBD baseline for rounds 10+ "configurable by point value" based off league history
User ADP based off league history
PD 38%Dodds, 38%Henry, 24%Wood (This is my first year using PD and setting weights with the experts)
Some Tips I Used
Let draft come to me
Always look at #12 and predicit what he will pick and what his needs are
League
17 rounds
1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K/1D/1FLEX TE/WR
25 yards passing, 4 pt passing TD
10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 pt TD
1 PPR
1(11) - WR Reggie Wayne (DD had him at #2 over TO, and TO was gone at 7)
2(14) - RB Frank Gore (#12 took Lynch & Romo, i knew I get a good RB at this pick)
3(35) - RB MJD (Fell in my lap, in a PPR league I like this pick. McFadden & W.Parker were picked B4 MJD. Plus #12 is in need or a RB, he takes 2 RBs and then..)
4(38) - WR Chad Johnson (DD ranking him at WR6, sweet)
5(59) - WR Santonio Holmes (#12 is easy to predict at this point he needs WR & Holmes is a nice pick for me)
6(62) - WR Calvin Johnson (#12 takes 2 WRs. Im torn between Calvin, E.Graham & E.James. I take Calvin thinking I start 4 WRs. Last yr we did 4 with 10 teams. Opps on me)
7(83) - RB DeAngelo Williams (I forgot to check his bye week, He is 9 and so is Gore. Now im concerned at my RB stable)
8(86) - QB Jay Cutler (I wanted a top 6 QB but they ALL went by the 3rd round. So I then went with Dodds "The Perfect Draft" stragety; Cutler. The room says NICE PICK!)
9(107) - TE Owen Daniels (Again following Dodds advise, I hope your right)
10(110) - DEF Minnesota (DD best value pick, I was looking for round 12 for a D. but I only plan to carry 1 for most of the season. So I take the #1 DEF & a small run starts)
11(131) - RB Chris Perry (Someone says ####! and then one of the good drafters in the room likes this pick and give me props, yay!)
12(134) - QB Jason Campbell (Another person says ####! and room goes NICE PICK!)
13(155) - WR Jerry Porter (yup another ####! from the room with this pick and room goes GOOD PICK)
14(158) - TE L.J. Smith (I wanted to land Z.Miller, but lets hope LJ gets some more looks with K.Curtis on PHI being hurt)
15(179) - RB Maurice Morris (I remember reading that Morris is really giving Jones a run for his money at the RB1 spot in SEA, so what the heck i take him)
16(182) - WR Kevin Walter (DAMN! from 1 owner, I just picked whoever DD suggest with "comp player" feature)
17(203) - PK Josh Scobee (I would have taken ipod from the combacks, but we need to start a dicker, i mean kicker)
Summary
Overall I think I did pretty good and im happy with my team. I think my weak spot is quality depth at RB. But with my strengths at DEF & 4 solid WRs ist looking like a good start to a great year..
calvin johnson went 3.10 in my draft, i probably would have taken him with the next pick and the guy in front of me knew it. I took s holmes instead b/c i knew #12 wouldn't take a RB so i got Jacobs at 4.02.I forget which guy said this earlier, but its pretty easy to abuse the #12 spot unless he is a real shark. Just take whatever he needs on the way up and he will usually reach instead of screwing you on the way down due to the distance between his picks.OneEastRiver said:Shocked you got Calvin in the 6th round - amazing value. My draft is tomorrow, and I'm thinking I'll have to spend pick 4.02 if I want him. That said, at 4.02 he'll be at least the 15th WR off the board, and most likely closer to 20th WR. I think he definitely outperforms that slot and finishes just within top 10 if not higher. Anyone see better value at WR in the 4th round? Maybe Boldin, Holt, or S. Smith?This is my 3rd year using the Draft Dominatior and every year I get better. But this year I feel like a 3rd year WR in his breakout year. Well maybe not a breakout cuz for the past 2 years Im always in the superbowl..
DD Setup
1.2 weights on division games & playoff games. 1.0 weight after round 9 and using comp. player feature
VBD baseline "configure by position" based off leagues history for the first 9 rounds
VBD baseline for rounds 10+ "configurable by point value" based off league history
User ADP based off league history
PD 38%Dodds, 38%Henry, 24%Wood (This is my first year using PD and setting weights with the experts)
Some Tips I Used
Let draft come to me
Always look at #12 and predicit what he will pick and what his needs are
League
17 rounds
1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K/1D/1FLEX TE/WR
25 yards passing, 4 pt passing TD
10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 pt TD
1 PPR
1(11) - WR Reggie Wayne (DD had him at #2 over TO, and TO was gone at 7)
2(14) - RB Frank Gore (#12 took Lynch & Romo, i knew I get a good RB at this pick)
3(35) - RB MJD (Fell in my lap, in a PPR league I like this pick. McFadden & W.Parker were picked B4 MJD. Plus #12 is in need or a RB, he takes 2 RBs and then..)
4(38) - WR Chad Johnson (DD ranking him at WR6, sweet)
5(59) - WR Santonio Holmes (#12 is easy to predict at this point he needs WR & Holmes is a nice pick for me)
6(62) - WR Calvin Johnson (#12 takes 2 WRs. Im torn between Calvin, E.Graham & E.James. I take Calvin thinking I start 4 WRs. Last yr we did 4 with 10 teams. Opps on me)
7(83) - RB DeAngelo Williams (I forgot to check his bye week, He is 9 and so is Gore. Now im concerned at my RB stable)
8(86) - QB Jay Cutler (I wanted a top 6 QB but they ALL went by the 3rd round. So I then went with Dodds "The Perfect Draft" stragety; Cutler. The room says NICE PICK!)
9(107) - TE Owen Daniels (Again following Dodds advise, I hope your right)
10(110) - DEF Minnesota (DD best value pick, I was looking for round 12 for a D. but I only plan to carry 1 for most of the season. So I take the #1 DEF & a small run starts)
11(131) - RB Chris Perry (Someone says ####! and then one of the good drafters in the room likes this pick and give me props, yay!)
12(134) - QB Jason Campbell (Another person says ####! and room goes NICE PICK!)
13(155) - WR Jerry Porter (yup another ####! from the room with this pick and room goes GOOD PICK)
14(158) - TE L.J. Smith (I wanted to land Z.Miller, but lets hope LJ gets some more looks with K.Curtis on PHI being hurt)
15(179) - RB Maurice Morris (I remember reading that Morris is really giving Jones a run for his money at the RB1 spot in SEA, so what the heck i take him)
16(182) - WR Kevin Walter (DAMN! from 1 owner, I just picked whoever DD suggest with "comp player" feature)
17(203) - PK Josh Scobee (I would have taken ipod from the combacks, but we need to start a dicker, i mean kicker)
Summary
Overall I think I did pretty good and im happy with my team. I think my weak spot is quality depth at RB. But with my strengths at DEF & 4 solid WRs ist looking like a good start to a great year..
I think it came out the other day A. Hall will an 'inside the 20's' and goalline back. Good value at 15.filboxer said:Also had a draft yesterday....6pts all TDs 1pt 25yds passing 1pt 10yds rush/rec 1pt PPR QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FL:RB/WR/TE/K/DE1. Portis (like him at 11)2. Edwards (my #3 WR overall)3. T. Jones (Wanted Marshall, but 12 had Owens/Wayne so I thought I could wait but he took Marshall at the turn)4. Holt (solid value in round 4)5. Coles (thinking Driver like #s with Favre)6. McNabb (Not sure about this one)7. Shockey (Should get some looks in NO)8. Chris Jounson (love him in the 8th)9. Issac Bruce (I like him to catch a lot of balls in SF)10. Vincent Jackson (Hopefully he can carry over strong play from the end of last year)11. Mo. Morris (Not a J. Jones fan, He might get a shot)12. Rivers (Nice #2)13. Jags D (probably should have waited)14. Gostkowski (same as above)15. Andre Hall (could be a starter if shanny keeps on being shanny)16. Josh Morgan (took a chance on him, lots of balls flying around in SF)Overall I like my team compared to the other owners in my league. Kind of an average team, but it can compete.