TB Mike Williams (1 Viewer)

In response to a trade and responses to it in the offseason dynasty thread, I thought I would take a look at the value of Mike Williams.

23 years old

65 receptions

964 yards

11 TDs

At first glance, really impressive numbers for a rookie. Great numbers for TDs especially.

However his catch rate was an incredible 65/128. 50.8%. His Quarterback, Josh Freeman, completed 61.4% of his passes. For comparison, here are some other receivers who had strong rookie seasons:

2010

Dez Bryant: 45-561-6

2009

Jeremy Maclin: 56-773-4

Hakeem Nicks: 47-790-6

Kenny Britt: 42-701-3

Percy Harvin: 60-790-6

Mike Wallace: 39-756-6

2008

Desean Jackson: 62-912-2/3

Eddie Royal: 91-980-5

Donnie Avery: 53-674-3

2007

Dwayne Bowe: 70-995-5

James Jones: 47-676-2

I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data - I can add him in if we want to later. Just thought I should mention that he was a top receiver his rookie year

2006

Marques Colston: 70-1038-8

Santonio Holmes: 49-824-2

2005

Reggie Brown: 43-571-4

Braylon Edwards: 32-512-3

Mark Clayton: 44-471-2

2004

Michael Clayton: 80-1193-7

Lee Evans: 48-843-9

Roy Williams: 54-817-8

Before Proceeding, I have a guess to make: I believe that many of the speed players, who spend a lot of their time on boom-bust plays or are slot guys, will be at the top or the bottom of the following study.

Now, I have their catch percentages as well - target numbers taken from FFToday. I have grouped them by tiers:

70.0+

Eddie Royal - 70.5%

65-69.9

Percy Harvin - 65.9%

Michael Clayton - 65.5%

60-64.9

Lee Evans - 64.0%

Hakeem Nicks - 63.5%

Dez Bryant - 62.5%

Jeremy Maclin - 62.2%

Marques Colston - 60.9%

55-59.9

Dwayne Bowe - 59.8%

James Jones - 58.8%

Santonio Holmes - 57.6%

Kenny Britt - 56.0%

50-54.9

Reggie Brown - 54.4%

Braylon Edwards - 54.2%

Mike Wallace - 54.2%

Desean Jackson - 51.2%

Donnie Avery - 51.0%

45-49.9

Roy Williams - 45.8%

I have highlighted the speed players that I am about to discuss with blue.

It appears to me as though most of the speed players were indeed top of bottom guys. Royal and Harvin in the slots, and Avery, DJax, Wallace - low rec, high ypc players, were near the bottom.

Mike Williams looks like a TD guy to me. His type of play is most similar to the Claytons, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Britt, James Jones, and Bowe. His TD propensity makes me want to consider him with Nicks as well.

Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.

I didn't want to continue typing because I've got to get back to my finals studying, but a quick examination of receivers who were successful from every year, but not at the top of the rookie receiving totals, showed a ton of guys over a 60% reception rate.

All in all, I think that we must evaluate each case on its own, but we have to also take note that Williams is a pretty close parallel to another promising Williams. I'd love to get a 1300 yard season out of him like the other, but just like Braylon Edwards, it looks like the odds are stacked against Tampa Bay Mike. I'm an owner in quite a few leagues, but I may be looking to sell if (and only if) I can get something I consider to be a pretty nice return.

EDIT: subtitle update (post 81)

EDIT2: another subtitle update (post 102)

'Instinctive said:

Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.

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Braylon went on to 80-1289-16 in his 3rd season. I could live with that.

'Couch Potato said:

'Instinctive said:

Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.

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Braylon went on to 80-1289-16 in his 3rd season. I could live with that.

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But what else has he done with his career? A big game or two with the Jets? That's like saying Brandon Lloyd hasn't been a total bust just on the basis of last year. I think you're nitpicking at a small point here in a decently large amount of data. One great season does not a career make - just ask Michael Bennett or Kevan Barlow. They had RB careers kind of similar to Braylon. One great year, disappointment followed.

Now yes, there is a lot of value in one great season - I'm not saying TB Mike goes one way just based on this. But it's a lot of data with some not-so-great implications.

Great thread. Great data. I have watched a bit of Mike's rookie season and feel better than his catch rate would suggest I should. However, I am not convinced he is a career WR1 in the NFL. There very well could be upgrades that find their way on the tampa roster.

'Instinctive said:

'Couch Potato said:

'Instinctive said:

Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.

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Braylon went on to 80-1289-16 in his 3rd season. I could live with that.

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But what else has he done with his career? A big game or two with the Jets? That's like saying Brandon Lloyd hasn't been a total bust just on the basis of last year. I think you're nitpicking at a small point here in a decently large amount of data. One great season does not a career make - just ask Michael Bennett or Kevan Barlow. They had RB careers kind of similar to Braylon. One great year, disappointment followed.

Now yes, there is a lot of value in one great season - I'm not saying TB Mike goes one way just based on this. But it's a lot of data with some not-so-great implications.

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I wasn't really making an argument. i just remembered that one big year and threw it out there. Not looking to

My only fear is that he might have had a Michael Clayton type first year. I think if he backs up his first year with a solid 1000yd 8 TD season he will creep in to the top 5 dynasty WR to own.

'No Way Jose said:

My only fear is that he might have had a Michael Clayton type first year. I think if he backs up his first year with a solid 1000yd 8 TD season he will creep in to the top 5 dynasty WR to own.

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Michael Clayton faded into irrelevance because he was lazy and wanted to party all the time instead of busting his butt to stay a starting receiver.

'No Way Jose said:

My only fear is that he might have had a Michael Clayton type first year. I think if he backs up his first year with a solid 1000yd 8 TD season he will creep in to the top 5 dynasty WR to own.

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What do you think happens if he comes out with like 800-900 yards, another low catch percentage, and Benn outperforms? I'm actually wondering, not making a point here. Does his value stay about the same? Does it go through the floor?

I don’t think that the data highlighted means what you think it does. You make a point to show the catch %, and then you veer away from that. There is no correlation with successful receivers long term and busts that follows the catch % argument. So, at this point the speed receivers are separated from the big bodied possession types. I don’t understand why, but I’m willing to follow where you are going. Even when you do this, the data does not enlighten us further. Speed vs Possession receivers, it's all the same.

For that matter, where do you get that Williams is a “TD receiver”. Does that mean a possession type, move the chains receiver? He’s not a burner, but he isn’t slow either, running a 4.5. What exactly turns you off to Williams? Is it his terrific body control and superior athleticism?

He’s 23, coming off a great rookie year, the incumbent #1 WR of an up and coming superstar QB in Josh Freeman. He’s only scratched the surface. What other than fuzzy numbers do you have that would make anyone feel pessimistic about Mike Williams Tampa? If you think he’s Michael Clayton II, then you’d be wrong. Clayton got paid and went into the tank. Williams is still awaiting his first big payday. This kid passes the “eyeball” test, and I said that during preseason last year. No way that he is “overvalued”.

'Raiderfan32904 said:

I don’t think that the data highlighted means what you think it does. You make a point to show the catch %, and then you veer away from that. There is no correlation with successful receivers long term and busts that follows the catch % argument. So, at this point the speed receivers are separated from the big bodied possession types. I don’t understand why, but I’m willing to follow where you are going. Even when you do this, the data does not enlighten us further. Speed vs Possession receivers, it's all the same. For that matter, where do you get that Williams is a “TD receiver”. Does that mean a possession type, move the chains receiver? He’s not a burner, but he isn’t slow either, running a 4.5. What exactly turns you off to Williams? Is it his terrific body control and superior athleticism? He’s 23, coming off a great rookie year, the incumbent #1 WR of an up and coming superstar QB in Josh Freeman. He’s only scratched the surface. What other than fuzzy numbers do you have that would make anyone feel pessimistic about Mike Williams Tampa? If you think he’s Michael Clayton II, then you’d be wrong. Clayton got paid and went into the tank. Williams is still awaiting his first big payday. This kid passes the “eyeball” test, and I said that during preseason last year. No way that he is “overvalued”.

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He's a guy who came in as the only viable target who has jump ball skills - the jump ball skills are what make me see him as a TD guy, which can be very valuable, but usually doesn't correlate too strong year to year.I don't know that he's Michael Clayton just because he's a rookie WR on the Bucs who did well.There's a huge correlation between catch percentage and busts. Every receiver with a low catch percentage, except the speed guys who have low targets and low catches with a high ypc (TB Mike's ypc is 14ish, iirc), has busted. That's somethign to think about. No to mention all the guys with success had very high catch percentages. And every year "terrific body control" and "superior athleticism" have been used to discuss guys who looked great after one year, but actually had an underlying thing that gave them success which they couldn't maintain. If you believe in him, great. I like him a lot too - owner in many leagues. But I'm going to be hedging my bets in a few leagues.

You left out Larry Fitzgerald (2004): 58 receptions, 780 yards, 8 TDs and a 50.4% catch rate.

Seems like he's actually the closest overall match to Mike Williams in his style of play too.

'GroveDiesel said:

You left out Larry Fitzgerald (2004): 58 receptions, 780 yards, 8 TDs and a 50.4% catch rate. Seems like he's actually the closest overall match to Mike Williams in his style of play too.

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I just grabbed the top 3 receiving yardage seasons every year. Well, except for 2006 - after those two guys was a bunch of RBs like Bush and MJD and no other real impactful receiver seasons.Looking at Fitzgerald though - his QBs that year only completed about 55% of their passes, not more than 61%. Like I said, we can't draw conclusions from single pieces of data, but I thought this was something everyone might want to know about.

It's an interesting set of data, but I think Mike Williams is a strange person to start with if you're looking at it from a fantasy angle.

He's a good not great receiver that is the clear #1 option for a rising offense with a good, young QB. The data might suggest he's far from a lock to be a great NFL wideout, but if you step back and look at his situation he won't need to be Jerry Rice to be a very valuable player in fantasy. I think what the data shows is that his stats were largely a result of being force fed the ball last year. For that to matter, you have to make the assumption that this isn't likely to occur again this year or for years to come. At least in the short term, I'm not sure I can make that leap.

What additional options has TB added? What has changed about their offensive scheme? What has changed about their QB situation? These are all things that would force us to reconsider "Is Mike Williams really that great of a football player"? Until that time, personally I'm thinking he doesn't need to be. He's plenty good enough to cash in on his oppurtunity here.

BTW, with all that said, I do love these kinds of threads. Thanks for the OP as something to think about.

'Instinctive said:

He's a guy who came in as the only viable target who has jump ball skills - the jump ball skills are what make me see him as a TD guy, which can be very valuable, but usually doesn't correlate too strong year to year.I don't know that he's Michael Clayton just because he's a rookie WR on the Bucs who did well.There's a huge correlation between catch percentage and busts. Every receiver with a low catch percentage, except the speed guys who have low targets and low catches with a high ypc (TB Mike's ypc is 14ish, iirc), has busted. That's somethign to think about. No to mention all the guys with success had very high catch percentages. And every year "terrific body control" and "superior athleticism" have been used to discuss guys who looked great after one year, but actually had an underlying thing that gave them success which they couldn't maintain. If you believe in him, great. I like him a lot too - owner in many leagues. But I'm going to be hedging my bets in a few leagues.

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Sorry, but I still don't buy any correlation to Michael Clayton. And do see a hit and miss correlation between catch percentage and busts. No compelling evidence either way. Finally, I won't belabor this argument, but the subtitle of this thread "drastically overvalued" is very misleading. If you want to argue that he's overvalued, fine. I can see that side of the coin. But that subtitle is a tease that the main argument of the OP fails to deliver.

'Instinctive said:

'No Way Jose said:

My only fear is that he might have had a Michael Clayton type first year. I think if he backs up his first year with a solid 1000yd 8 TD season he will creep in to the top 5 dynasty WR to own.

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What do you think happens if he comes out with like 800-900 yards, another low catch percentage, and Benn outperforms? I'm actually wondering, not making a point here. Does his value stay about the same? Does it go through the floor?

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Low catch percentage really means nothing to me. Too many factors go in to that stat that have nothing to do with the WR. I think it shows that a young QB locked in at his favorite target and probably forced some throws to MW that he probably shouldn't have thrown. If Benn out produces MW coming off a torn acl I would be shocked. I don't see Williams ADP dropping more than a round even If he has a mediocre year in 2011. However, 2 great years in a row could put it through the roof. Benn has had problems with injuries in college and now in the NFL, I would be hesitant to invest much in him at this point and by all accounts MW is a superior talent.

I don't see how your data correlates to any reasonable conclusions. Seems like a case of manipulating statistics to support a suspect argument.

Mike Williams may not go on to have a stellar NFL career but I absolutely disagree with your argument. Freeman is only going to get better. Benn should be a serviceable WR2 to take alot of pressure off Williams, and Briscoe is a promising WR3 who can play WR2 if Benn's game doesn't develop. The Bucs have good TE and a very strong running game. Williams situation is better than Megatron ever had (although Megatron's situation is improving. Everything I see about Williams game tells me that he is a football player with "my ball" attitude.

If you can land him as a WR2 for your team right now you're doing great. He has the potential to be a top 5 WR in a couple years.

Shaky premise (1st year catch percentage is in an indicator of future success) cherry picked data (eliminating speed guys) and glaring omissions (Fitzgerald? Well, he wasn't top 3, Calvin? well he was top 3, but "I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data" - which conveniently ignores the fact he played 15 games that year).

Mike Williams may indeed be a bust, but I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on these numbers. To paraphrase Raiderfan32904, we need to look at the correlation of catch percentage of long term successful receivers to draw any meaningful conclusions.

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

After watching tape of this kid, I think he could be one hell of a stud. Good blocker, leaping ability, and gives out his guts

Two words: Josh FreemanAll this guy cares about is football. He's going to make Mike Williams an extremely valuable WR to own.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has set an offseason work agenda with offensive teammates in case of an NFL lockout, according to Roy Cummings, of The Tampa Tribune. "Hopefully the CBA gets resolved," Freeman said, "but if it doesn't, I've already been in contact with all of our receivers and everybody's excited to come (to Tampa) in March and get going. We're going to hit up a couple of the local high schools here and work out that way. Hopefully, they'll let us use their weight room or whatever it is we need, because we're anxious to get going."

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman said he is eager to improve on his footwork, both in and out of the pocket, his throwing accuracy and his ability to break down opponents' tendencies through film study this offseason, according to Roy Cummings, of The Tampa Tribune. "I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of our offense, and I feel great about all the defenses we've been seeing, but the league is constantly changing and you have to have a good understanding of those changes," Freeman said. "So, I've basically got every blitz that every team in the NFL ran last year all on my computer at home. I've got a whole storage device there that has all the blitzes, all the (interception) reels, stuff like that."

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has been working out daily with RB Cadillac Williams and New York Giants WR Michael Clayton in Florida. Freeman is organizing team and individual workouts while the lockout persists. Last week he organized a workout for the team's skill position players and the attendance was 100 percent. The players worked out at the University of South Florida for a week, ran routes and worked on plays.

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Something I've learned after years of playing fantasy football is that a WR's value is directly related to his QB's play. Ground breaking information, I know. The point is, a lot of the rookies mentioned in the OP had awful QBs throwing them the ball during their careers. That's not the case with Mike Williams.I'm never one to assume that a player's production will get better simply because they've "got another year under their belt," but if these guys continue to work together like this, the TB offense is going to be dynamic for years to come.

'squistion said:

Shaky premise (1st year catch percentage is in an indicator of future success) cherry picked data (eliminating speed guys) and glaring omissions (Fitzgerald? Well, he wasn't top 3, Calvin? well he was top 3, but "I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data" - which conveniently ignores the fact he played 15 games that year).

Mike Williams may indeed be a bust, but I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on these numbers. To paraphrase Raiderfan32904, we need to look at the correlation of catch percentage of long term successful receivers to draw any meaningful conclusions.

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

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Im not shocked to see Williams catch percentage that mich lower than Freemans completion percentage. Especially as the season progressed, every time willliams was thrown at, he had multpile defenders draped all over him. I think a healthy Benn or any quality #2 WR will help Williams, not hurt him.

Had Clayton and Wiliams not both played for the bucs, there would be no comparing the two. Im not even a huge Williams fan, and it is possible he busts, but his low catch percentage or because he plays for the same team as Michael Clayton did will have notihng to do with it. i like Williams as a solid #2, but i wouldnt want to count on him as my #1 WR.

'Go deep said:

'squistion said:

Shaky premise (1st year catch percentage is in an indicator of future success) cherry picked data (eliminating speed guys) and glaring omissions (Fitzgerald? Well, he wasn't top 3, Calvin? well he was top 3, but "I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data" - which conveniently ignores the fact he played 15 games that year).

Mike Williams may indeed be a bust, but I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on these numbers. To paraphrase Raiderfan32904, we need to look at the correlation of catch percentage of long term successful receivers to draw any meaningful conclusions.

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

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Im not shocked to see Williams catch percentage that mich lower than Freemans completion percentage. Especially as the season progressed, every time willliams was thrown at, he had multpile defenders draped all over him. I think a healthy Benn or any quality #2 WR will help Williams, not hurt him.

Had Clayton and Wiliams not both played for the bucs, there would be no comparing the two. Im not even a huge Williams fan, and it is possible he busts, but his low catch percentage or because he plays for the same team as Michael Clayton did will have notihng to do with it. i like Williams as a solid #2, but i wouldnt want to count on him as my #1 WR.

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I don't understand why Instinctive is getting jumped on here. The data is what it is, and should be taken into consideration. If it shows nothing else, it shows that Williams' rookie season wasn't as promising as his RAW numbers suggest. That doesn't mean it wasn't promising, it doesn't mean the % won't get better, it doesn't mean he isn't a star in the making. It means he needed a VERY high number of targets to get the numbers he did. He won't be able to rely on those targets forever, most likely. What happens when they drop? That is what owners and potential owners of Mike need to think through.Again, good data and good conversation to have. People shouldn't be scared to look at numbers like this. I suggest everyone take a look at Football Outsiders' WR stats. Williams is not very high AND his QB was very efficient. The fact that Freeman was so efficient, only means that his per-target numbers are questionable, even where they are (not high). I know there are variables to go into it, but there is some concern.

'squistion said:

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

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If the owners in your leagues are aware of this data, you could be right: he is not drastically overrated. If they are not - I don't think most are - he very well could be. For reference, he was drafted before Miles Austin in my my recent startup.People are looking at his raw numbers, at his QB situation - which is overrated in itself - and the fact that the only competition for WR targets is injured, and projecting these things to continue. The per target numbers show that there is solid potential that they won't.

I don't think that means he is a bust, as this production from a rookie WR is a very good sign. But, again, these are important numbers and people would be wise not to write them off.

'Concept Coop said:

'Go deep said:

'squistion said:

Shaky premise (1st year catch percentage is in an indicator of future success) cherry picked data (eliminating speed guys) and glaring omissions (Fitzgerald? Well, he wasn't top 3, Calvin? well he was top 3, but "I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data" - which conveniently ignores the fact he played 15 games that year).

Mike Williams may indeed be a bust, but I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on these numbers. To paraphrase Raiderfan32904, we need to look at the correlation of catch percentage of long term successful receivers to draw any meaningful conclusions.

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

Click to expand...

Im not shocked to see Williams catch percentage that mich lower than Freemans completion percentage. Especially as the season progressed, every time willliams was thrown at, he had multpile defenders draped all over him. I think a healthy Benn or any quality #2 WR will help Williams, not hurt him.

Had Clayton and Wiliams not both played for the bucs, there would be no comparing the two. Im not even a huge Williams fan, and it is possible he busts, but his low catch percentage or because he plays for the same team as Michael Clayton did will have notihng to do with it. i like Williams as a solid #2, but i wouldnt want to count on him as my #1 WR.

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I don't understand why Instinctive is getting jumped on here. The data is what it is, and should be taken into consideration. If it shows nothing else, it shows that Williams' rookie season wasn't as promising as his RAW numbers suggest. That doesn't mean it wasn't promising, it doesn't mean the % won't get better, it doesn't mean he isn't a star in the making. It means he needed a VERY high number of targets to get the numbers he did. He won't be able to rely on those targets forever, most likely. What happens when they drop? That is what owners and potential owners of Mike need to think through.Again, good data and good conversation to have. People shouldn't be scared to look at numbers like this. I suggest everyone take a look at Football Outsiders' WR stats. Williams is not very high AND his QB was very efficient. The fact that Freeman was so efficient, only means that his per-target numbers are questionable, even where they are (not high). I know there are variables to go into it, but there is some concern.

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Im not jumping on insticntive, i just think this is one of those cases were the stats dont mean much because there are so many other variables to take into account. Why do we assume that its Williams targets that will go down and not his catch percentage that goes up?

What if Freemans completion % was so high because when he wasnt throwing to a double covered Mike Williams 20 yards down field he was dumping off passes 5 yards down field to RB's and TE's?

Can stats expalin why Shaun Hill completeed 62 % of his passes and Calvin only caught 56% of his targets?

'Go deep said:

Im not jumping on insticntive, i just think this is one of those cases were the stats dont mean much because there are so many other variables to take into account. Why do we assume that its Williams targets that will go down and not his catch percentage that goes up?What if Freemans completion % was so high because when he wasnt throwing to a double covered Mike Williams 20 yards down field he was dumping off passes 5 yards down field to RB's and TE's? Can stats expalin why Shaun Hill completeed 62 % of his passes and Calvin only caught 56% of his targets?

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I didn't mean to suggest you were, Go Deep. Just in general. Yours was the last post I read before deciding to respond. I think you are being reasonable in saying that you wouldn't want to count on him as your dynasty WR1.There are other variables that go into it. Freeman did throw the ball away, rather than force things (low Ints), and when he did so in Williams' direction (usually the deepest guy), that counts as a target. Other things like that. As for the Hill question - Hill threw a lot more picks than Freeman did. Hill forced things when Freeman did not. If he is forcing things to Calvin, his catch % will go down, although his raw totals would go up.

'Concept Coop said:

'Go deep said:

Im not jumping on insticntive, i just think this is one of those cases were the stats dont mean much because there are so many other variables to take into account. Why do we assume that its Williams targets that will go down and not his catch percentage that goes up?

What if Freemans completion % was so high because when he wasnt throwing to a double covered Mike Williams 20 yards down field he was dumping off passes 5 yards down field to RB's and TE's?

Can stats expalin why Shaun Hill completeed 62 % of his passes and Calvin only caught 56% of his targets?

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I didn't mean to suggest you were, Go Deep. Just in general. Yours was the last post I read before deciding to respond. I think you are being reasonable in saying that you wouldn't want to count on him as your dynasty WR1.There are other variables that go into it. Freeman did throw the ball away, rather than force things (low Ints), and when he did so in Williams' direction, that counts as a target. Other things like that.

As for the Hill question - Hill through a lot more picks than Freeman did. Hill forced things when Freeman did not. If he is forcing things to Calvin, his catch % will go down, although his raw totals would go up.

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These things may very well be the case, and that goes to show just a few of the variables that come into play here. There are so many variables that i cant draw any conclusion to his catch % and Freemans completion %, and i dont think anyone else can from a few year sample size, or any sample sise for that matter since every situation is different,

'Concept Coop said:

'squistion said:

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

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If the owners in your leagues are aware of this data, you could be right: he is not drastically overrated. If they are not - I don't think most are - he very well could be. For reference, he was drafted before Miles Austin in my my recent startup.People are looking at his raw numbers, at his QB situation - which is overrated in itself - and the fact that the only competition for WR targets is injured, and projecting these things to continue. The per target numbers show that there is solid potential that they won't.

I don't think that means he is a bust, as this production from a rookie WR is a very good sign. But, again, these are important numbers and people would be wise not to write them off.

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I haven't taken a poll in my leagues, but I think if I were to a post a link to this thread on the league message boards, it would change the perception of Mike Williams, minimally, if at all. I own Williams in 2 leagues and he the one player I have gotten the most trade offers for (and my leagues are comprised of sharp/shark pool owners). If you want to argue that Williams could be somewhat overrated, fine, but the OP took it a step further to drastically overrated, indicating there may be a huge red flag here - but as I noted, I think this is a conclusion drawn from flawed data.

And I am not certain Miles Austin is the best example to use, as there are legitimate questions as to how the target/catch mix will play out with Dez and Jason Witten. I own Austin in two leagues and would trade him straight up for Williams with very little hesitation if I got a trade offer.

Are we saying he has bad hands or lack of concentration because I don't think that's quite accurate. He's a great deep ball WR and a great jump ball WR. He might not be a great possession WR yet, but it doesn't matter much for fantasy, and if he grows into that role it's a huge bonus at least in PPR.

Where would you rank him, and where do you perceive the community ranking him? Looking at FBG & F&L, he's anywhere from WR14 to WR23. Where would you sell and where would you buy? What defines a "pretty nice return"? Would you sell for any other WR in the FBG top 24?

I don't know what conclusions can be drawn as each player is going to be different. For example taking some of the top WRs in the game today and their rookie seasons:

Fitzgerlad 58/126 for 46%, his QB McCown 57%

Andre Johnson 66/129 for 51%, his QB Carr 57%

Reggie Wayne 27/50 for 54%, Peyton 63% ... small sample size

Roddy White 29/67 for 43%, Vick 55% ... another fairly small sample size

Playing style and body type Williams reminds me most of Roddy. This past year was the first in which Roddy was over 60% receptions/targets. For his career he is 43%, 48.5%, 57.5%, 54% (Ryan 61%), 51.5% (Ryan 58%), and 64% (Ryan 62%).

'squistion said:

'Concept Coop said:

'squistion said:

While I appreciate the time and effort to put this together, I don't see anything here to cause me to conclude that Mike Williams may indeed be drastically overrated.

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If the owners in your leagues are aware of this data, you could be right: he is not drastically overrated. If they are not - I don't think most are - he very well could be. For reference, he was drafted before Miles Austin in my my recent startup.People are looking at his raw numbers, at his QB situation - which is overrated in itself - and the fact that the only competition for WR targets is injured, and projecting these things to continue. The per target numbers show that there is solid potential that they won't.

I don't think that means he is a bust, as this production from a rookie WR is a very good sign. But, again, these are important numbers and people would be wise not to write them off.

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I haven't taken a poll in my leagues, but I think if I were to a post a link to this thread on the league message boards, it would change the perception of Mike Williams, minimally, if at all. I own Williams in 2 leagues and he the one player I have gotten the most trade offers for (and my leagues are comprised of sharp/shark pool owners). If you want to argue that Williams could be somewhat overrated, fine, but the OP took it a step further to drastically overrated, indicating there may be a huge red flag here - but as I noted, I think this is a conclusion drawn from flawed data.

And I am not certain Miles Austin is the best example to use, as there are legitimate questions as to how the target/catch mix will play out with Dez and Jason Witten. I own Austin in two leagues and would trade him straight up for Williams with very little hesitation if I got a trade offer.

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I don't mean to insult you at all. But I would suggest that you overrate Williams a good deal based on your willingness to trade Austin for him. That is only my onion, and in yours, I am sure I overrate Austin and undervalue Williams.Austin is a good enough player, that it takes options like Dez and Witten to threaten his numbers. I am comfortable suggesting that Williams would have similar concerns with much lesser competition. After Romo went down and Austin's numbers dropped, Austin was still getting catches at about the same rate as Williams. The only difference was the TDs. I see potential for Austin's to rise and Williams' to fall, once Tampa corrects their redzone running game and Romo comes back.

Lastly, I don't think the data is flawed. It is not perfect, but it is not flawed. Again, it shows that Williams needed a very high number of targets to get the numbers he did. In PPR leagues, he relied on TDs to keep up with other WRs in his range. There is potential that Williams comes back down to earth or plateaus. If that is the case, those willing to value him at as a WR1 would have greatly overrated him.

'Keepers said:

I don't know what conclusions can be drawn as each player is going to be different. For example taking some of the top WRs in the game today and their rookie seasons:Fitzgerlad 58/126 for 46%, his QB McCown 57%Andre Johnson 66/129 for 51%, his QB Carr 57%Reggie Wayne 27/50 for 54%, Peyton 63% ... small sample sizeRoddy White 29/67 for 43%, Vick 55% ... another fairly small sample sizePlaying style and body type Williams reminds me most of Roddy. This past year was the first in which Roddy was over 60% receptions/targets. For his career he is 43%, 48.5%, 57.5%, 54% (Ryan 61%), 51.5% (Ryan 58%), and 64% (Ryan 62%).

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You have to look at the TD/INT ratio too. These guys were throwing more interceptions than Freeman. Freeman was not forcing things. And, you have to look at who was starting and how much time each spent. The small sample sizes of White and Wayne should probably be removed. If they are only coming on the field in 3 or 4 WR sets, when play action is not a threat, their % is going to be lower than a starter running the entire route tree.

Most of the rookies on the OP's list didn't have to deal with double teams. Because of Williams' unique situation being one of two starting rookies and the more productive one, he did have the double teams. I think the catch percentage explanation is as simple as that.

He'll adjust as #1s do, his catch percent will go up, and he'll be just fine.

'Concept Coop said:

'Keepers said:

I don't know what conclusions can be drawn as each player is going to be different. For example taking some of the top WRs in the game today and their rookie seasons:Fitzgerlad 58/126 for 46%, his QB McCown 57%Andre Johnson 66/129 for 51%, his QB Carr 57%Reggie Wayne 27/50 for 54%, Peyton 63% ... small sample sizeRoddy White 29/67 for 43%, Vick 55% ... another fairly small sample sizePlaying style and body type Williams reminds me most of Roddy. This past year was the first in which Roddy was over 60% receptions/targets. For his career he is 43%, 48.5%, 57.5%, 54% (Ryan 61%), 51.5% (Ryan 58%), and 64% (Ryan 62%).

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You have to look at the TD/INT ratio too. These guys were throwing more interceptions than Freeman. Freeman was not forcing things. And, you have to look at who was starting and how much time each spent. The small sample sizes of White and Wayne should probably be removed. If they are only coming on the field in 3 or 4 WR sets, when play action is not a threat, their % is going to be lower than a starter running the entire route tree.

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I don't see the relationship as that is factored into completion %. A more significant stat, and one that is not touched on in any of these analyses is YPR for the receivers, since short passes should have a higher completion rate. Williams was 14.9 yds, AJ 14.8 and Fitzgerald 13.4. These stats favor Williams but still I don't think any conclusions can be drawn from any of these stats.

'Couch Potato said:

Most of the rookies on the OP's list didn't have to deal with double teams. Because of Williams' unique situation being one of two starting rookies and the more productive one, he did have the double teams. I think the catch percentage explanation is as simple as that. He'll adjust, his catch percent will go up, and he'll be just fine.

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Wouldn't double teams mean Freeman would look elsewhere? His TD/INT ration suggests that he didn't force many throws. Williams' drop rate was pretty high as well. I don't think there is a simple explanation one way or the other.

'Keepers said:

I don't see the relationship as that is factored into completion %. A more significant stat, and one that is not touched on in any of these analyses is YPR for the receivers, since short passes should have a higher completion rate. Williams was 14.9 yds, AJ 14.8 and Fitzgerald 13.4. These stats favor Williams but still I don't think any conclusions can be drawn from any of these stats.

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If Freeman's INT ratio was higher or completion percentage lower, it would be easy to assume he was forcing things. We can't do that.

'Concept Coop said:

'Keepers said:

I don't know what conclusions can be drawn as each player is going to be different. For example taking some of the top WRs in the game today and their rookie seasons:

Fitzgerlad 58/126 for 46%, his QB McCown 57%

Andre Johnson 66/129 for 51%, his QB Carr 57%

Reggie Wayne 27/50 for 54%, Peyton 63% ... small sample size

Roddy White 29/67 for 43%, Vick 55% ... another fairly small sample size

Playing style and body type Williams reminds me most of Roddy. This past year was the first in which Roddy was over 60% receptions/targets. For his career he is 43%, 48.5%, 57.5%, 54% (Ryan 61%), 51.5% (Ryan 58%), and 64% (Ryan 62%).

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You have to look at the TD/INT ratio too. These guys were throwing more interceptions than Freeman. Freeman was not forcing things. And, you have to look at who was starting and how much time each spent. The small sample sizes of White and Wayne should probably be removed. If they are only coming on the field in 3 or 4 WR sets, when play action is not a threat, their % is going to be lower than a starter running the entire route tree.

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Are you basing this from stats alone, because i watched Freeman force a ton of passes to Williams. I would argue that Williams catch % is lower because Freeman felt more comfortable "forcing" throws to him he wouldnt have to oher WR's?I also dont think you can accurately tell who "forces" more passes based on TD/Int ratio.

I'd give Matt Schaub and my 2012 1st for Tampa Mike, Kevin Kolb and your 2012 2nd all day long (and weekends too!)

'Go deep said:

this from stats alone, because i watched Freeman force a ton of passes to Williams. I would argue that Williams catch % is lower because Freeman felt more comfortable "forcing" throws to him he wouldnt have to oher WR's?I also dont think you can accurately tell who "forces" more passes based on TD/Int ratio.

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Not just stats. I have both traded for and traded away Williams this year. Before doing either, I watched a few of his games. Granted, I filter the plays, to only show me targets to Williams. So I won't comment on Freeman's tendencies as I would only be going off of stats and the few games I saw during the season. I think it is logical to assume that a player forcing things would have a lower completion % and more INTs. But, you are right. There are more variables. Williams was the deep threat, so naturally, there is a lower percentage on those routes. Also, being the deepest guy, that is where Freeman would often look to throw the ball way. I think I am beating a dead horse, however. So I'll just say again, that I do think Williams is a good player. Rookie WR don't often have seasons like Williams did. I just think the OP was right in suggesting that there is potential that Williams is being overrated. His raw numbers make his season look better than it actually was.

'Concept Coop said:

'Go deep said:

this from stats alone, because i watched Freeman force a ton of passes to Williams. I would argue that Williams catch % is lower because Freeman felt more comfortable "forcing" throws to him he wouldnt have to oher WR's?I also dont think you can accurately tell who "forces" more passes based on TD/Int ratio.

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Not just stats. I have both traded for and traded away Williams this year. Before doing either, I watched a few of his games. Granted, I filter the plays, to only show me targets to Williams. So I won't comment on Freeman's tendencies as I would only be going off of stats and the few games I saw during the season. I think it is logical to assume that a player forcing things would have a lower completion % and more INTs. But, you are right. There are more variables. Williams was the deep threat, so naturally, there is a lower percentage on those routes. Also, being the deepest guy, that is where Freeman would often look to throw the ball way. I think I am beating a dead horse, however. So I'll just say again, that I do think Williams is a good player. Rookie WR don't often have seasons like Williams did. I just think the OP was right in suggesting that there is potential that Williams is being overrated. His raw numbers make his season look better than it actually was.

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I think we have similar feelings about Mike Williams, and he might be overrated to anyone who has him in the top 10-12 WR's. However, i dont think Freemans completion % or Williams catch % is telling us anything about what the future might bring. If anything, i think as Freeman and Williams mature, and become more in tune with each other, Williams catch % could go up while receiveng a simiar amount of targets. Of course alot depends on what happens with the Bucs #2 WR this season.

I found this an interesting read. I hope that the OP and others are not turned off from geting their opinions out there. I know some can be turned off if they feel attacked. For the record I don't think anyone attacked the OP. It was a spirited and engaging debate. Keep them coming.

Additionally, put me in the camp that has Williams as a nice #2 (somewhere in the #15 WR range). I do think he has a strong chance of growing with Freeman into something more. 2011 will go a long way to determine this.

One question I had was for the poster that kept brining up TD/INT ratio and indicating that QBs throwing more picks had an impact on WR catch percentage but throwing the ball away did not. (If I understood correctly) Can you explain in more detail what you are driving at with this? From my simple perspective a ball thrown away or to a DB counts as a non catch for the WR so catch percentage would be impacted identically I would think.

I don't think he's going to bust, because I loved what I saw when I watched him play.

I saw a rookie making pro plays, double-tapping the toes on the sideline, tough catches over the middle, everything I think vet #1 guys do. Mike Williams made a LOT of tough catches last year. Stuff that didn't make the highlight reel, and that he is paired up with a strong young QB just makes me like him more.

Arrelious Benn may turn out to be a player, and that may keep Williams from being a 100-catch guy, but I ain't too greedy. I do think expecting Benn to blow by Williams, rendering him a fantasy afterthought, is a big leap.

I am not dismissing the data, and I think it's valuable. And in any trend, you will find the exception. I am comfortable that Williams will buck any statistical red flags, and have a good fantasy career, especially for a 2nd/3rd round rookie pick. I am more concerned about off-the-field trouble, or the Bucs not spending enough to help he and Freeman, or other stuff fantasy owners cannot predict, that derail a player.

All this is more about Williams in general, and less about whether he is overrated. Which, if the thread is about whether or not he is overrated, shouldn't the discussion include where Williams is going in startups and redrafts? No player can be overrated unless we know his relative value? Is he going before Roddy? Maclin? BMarshall?

'BuckeyeChaos said:

One question I had was for the poster that kept brining up TD/INT ratio and indicating that QBs throwing more picks had an impact on WR catch percentage but throwing the ball away did not. (If I understood correctly) Can you explain in more detail what you are driving at with this? From my simple perspective a ball thrown away or to a DB counts as a non catch for the WR so catch percentage would be impacted identically I would think.

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You are right. And seeing as how Williams is the deep threat, Freeman is going to look his way when throwing the ball way, while avoiding intetional grounding. But, Williams has a high drop rate, per catch. It is not as bad per target. So, if we are going to assume that Freeman throwing the ball way accounted for a lot of Williams' targets that were not converted, all of the sudden his drop rate per catchable ball is a flag as well. The simple solution would be to watch the games and chart the throws/catches. But, I can't do that at the moment. I don't mean to pretend to know exactly what his catch rate means or everything that goes into it. I just feel it is more complex than to write off. The fact is, regardless of what went into it, he needed an abnormally high number of targets to put up his numbers. We need to decide if his catch % improves (pretty drastically) when the targets and redzone targets taper off.

I appreciate the information and the time taken to compare the various receivers but I just don't see anything to suggest that this information is going to tell you if Mike Williams is going to bust.

I personally think Mike Williams is in an enviable position. He has a talented qb who is one of the hardest working qbs in the biz. They already share great chemistry and work together on routes all offseason. Mike Williams is already a great route runner and has a great combination of size and speed. In his rookie season, he was already receiving double coverage and he struggled for about a game or two but he and Freeman made great adjustments.

It's worth watching the top 100 players of 2010. Freeman is the one who discusses Mike Williams. Hearing him talk about Williams makes me confident that Williams targets are more than safe.

'Concept Coop said:

I don't mean to insult you at all. But I would suggest that you overrate Williams a good deal based on your willingness to trade Austin for him. That is only my onion, and in yours, I am sure I overrate Austin and undervalue Witten.

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I wasn't insulted, although I did take umbridge about bringing onions into the discussion.

'squistion said:

'Concept Coop said:

I don't mean to insult you at all. But I would suggest that you overrate Williams a good deal based on your willingness to trade Austin for him. That is only my onion, and in yours, I am sure I overrate Austin and undervalue Witten.

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I wasn't insulted, although I did take umbridge about bringing onions into the discussion.

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Ugh. Not only that, but I meant undervalue Williams, not Witten. Long day.

This thread was well thought out. With that said sometimes people overthink.

I Think Williams is a solid receiver but im not sure his future is a perennial WR1. My prediction is by the end of this year him and Benn are both vying for the Number 1 spot. I see the same type of year he had last year with less tds.

Dman, tried to buy mwill from an owner who lives on these boards hoping he would be swayed by this thread.

DENIED!!!

I need the detractors to pick up their game and drop his value, let's go.

Williams also had one of the best YAC averages of any receiver in the NFL last year. I did a quick look and for receivers catching at least 60 balls he was in the top 7-8. I knew that anecdotally just from watching all his games but he really is a play maker, not just a jumper.

As far as the Clayton comparison we wouldn't even be discussing it unless both played for TB.

'Enraged Nerfball said:

Williams also had one of the best YAC averages of any receiver in the NFL last year. I did a quick look and for receivers catching at least 60 balls he was in the top 7-8. I knew that anecdotally just from watching all his games but he really is a play maker, not just a jumper.

As far as the Clayton comparison we wouldn't even be discussing it unless both played for TB.

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In all fairness, we might be, Clayton is still the poster boy for the 1st year WR star who busted. There are others who have also failed in subsequent years (see Eddie Royal) but none seemed to have had the 2nd year hype that surrounded Clayton.