Instinctive
Footballguy
In response to a trade and responses to it in the offseason dynasty thread, I thought I would take a look at the value of Mike Williams.
23 years old
65 receptions
964 yards
11 TDs
At first glance, really impressive numbers for a rookie. Great numbers for TDs especially.
However his catch rate was an incredible 65/128. 50.8%. His Quarterback, Josh Freeman, completed 61.4% of his passes. For comparison, here are some other receivers who had strong rookie seasons:
2010
Dez Bryant: 45-561-6
2009
Jeremy Maclin: 56-773-4
Hakeem Nicks: 47-790-6
Kenny Britt: 42-701-3
Percy Harvin: 60-790-6
Mike Wallace: 39-756-6
2008
Desean Jackson: 62-912-2/3
Eddie Royal: 91-980-5
Donnie Avery: 53-674-3
2007
Dwayne Bowe: 70-995-5
James Jones: 47-676-2
I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data - I can add him in if we want to later. Just thought I should mention that he was a top receiver his rookie year
2006
Marques Colston: 70-1038-8
Santonio Holmes: 49-824-2
2005
Reggie Brown: 43-571-4
Braylon Edwards: 32-512-3
Mark Clayton: 44-471-2
2004
Michael Clayton: 80-1193-7
Lee Evans: 48-843-9
Roy Williams: 54-817-8
Before Proceeding, I have a guess to make: I believe that many of the speed players, who spend a lot of their time on boom-bust plays or are slot guys, will be at the top or the bottom of the following study.
Now, I have their catch percentages as well - target numbers taken from FFToday. I have grouped them by tiers:
70.0+
Eddie Royal - 70.5%
65-69.9
Percy Harvin - 65.9%
Michael Clayton - 65.5%
60-64.9
Lee Evans - 64.0%
Hakeem Nicks - 63.5%
Dez Bryant - 62.5%
Jeremy Maclin - 62.2%
Marques Colston - 60.9%
55-59.9
Dwayne Bowe - 59.8%
James Jones - 58.8%
Santonio Holmes - 57.6%
Kenny Britt - 56.0%
50-54.9
Reggie Brown - 54.4%
Braylon Edwards - 54.2%
Mike Wallace - 54.2%
Desean Jackson - 51.2%
Donnie Avery - 51.0%
45-49.9
Roy Williams - 45.8%
I have highlighted the speed players that I am about to discuss with blue.
It appears to me as though most of the speed players were indeed top of bottom guys. Royal and Harvin in the slots, and Avery, DJax, Wallace - low rec, high ypc players, were near the bottom.
Mike Williams looks like a TD guy to me. His type of play is most similar to the Claytons, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Britt, James Jones, and Bowe. His TD propensity makes me want to consider him with Nicks as well.
Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.
I didn't want to continue typing because I've got to get back to my finals studying, but a quick examination of receivers who were successful from every year, but not at the top of the rookie receiving totals, showed a ton of guys over a 60% reception rate.
All in all, I think that we must evaluate each case on its own, but we have to also take note that Williams is a pretty close parallel to another promising Williams. I'd love to get a 1300 yard season out of him like the other, but just like Braylon Edwards, it looks like the odds are stacked against Tampa Bay Mike. I'm an owner in quite a few leagues, but I may be looking to sell if (and only if) I can get something I consider to be a pretty nice return.
EDIT: subtitle update (post 81)
EDIT2: another subtitle update (post 102)
23 years old
65 receptions
964 yards
11 TDs
At first glance, really impressive numbers for a rookie. Great numbers for TDs especially.
However his catch rate was an incredible 65/128. 50.8%. His Quarterback, Josh Freeman, completed 61.4% of his passes. For comparison, here are some other receivers who had strong rookie seasons:
2010
Dez Bryant: 45-561-6
2009
Jeremy Maclin: 56-773-4
Hakeem Nicks: 47-790-6
Kenny Britt: 42-701-3
Percy Harvin: 60-790-6
Mike Wallace: 39-756-6
2008
Desean Jackson: 62-912-2/3
Eddie Royal: 91-980-5
Donnie Avery: 53-674-3
2007
Dwayne Bowe: 70-995-5
James Jones: 47-676-2
I am not putting Calvin because he was injured - wouldn't want that to hurt the data - I can add him in if we want to later. Just thought I should mention that he was a top receiver his rookie year
2006
Marques Colston: 70-1038-8
Santonio Holmes: 49-824-2
2005
Reggie Brown: 43-571-4
Braylon Edwards: 32-512-3
Mark Clayton: 44-471-2
2004
Michael Clayton: 80-1193-7
Lee Evans: 48-843-9
Roy Williams: 54-817-8
Before Proceeding, I have a guess to make: I believe that many of the speed players, who spend a lot of their time on boom-bust plays or are slot guys, will be at the top or the bottom of the following study.
Now, I have their catch percentages as well - target numbers taken from FFToday. I have grouped them by tiers:
70.0+
Eddie Royal - 70.5%
65-69.9
Percy Harvin - 65.9%
Michael Clayton - 65.5%
60-64.9
Lee Evans - 64.0%
Hakeem Nicks - 63.5%
Dez Bryant - 62.5%
Jeremy Maclin - 62.2%
Marques Colston - 60.9%
55-59.9
Dwayne Bowe - 59.8%
James Jones - 58.8%
Santonio Holmes - 57.6%
Kenny Britt - 56.0%
50-54.9
Reggie Brown - 54.4%
Braylon Edwards - 54.2%
Mike Wallace - 54.2%
Desean Jackson - 51.2%
Donnie Avery - 51.0%
45-49.9
Roy Williams - 45.8%
I have highlighted the speed players that I am about to discuss with blue.
It appears to me as though most of the speed players were indeed top of bottom guys. Royal and Harvin in the slots, and Avery, DJax, Wallace - low rec, high ypc players, were near the bottom.
Mike Williams looks like a TD guy to me. His type of play is most similar to the Claytons, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Britt, James Jones, and Bowe. His TD propensity makes me want to consider him with Nicks as well.
Looking at this data, I think that it's sobering to notice that Mike Williams is closest to Roy Williams (excluding the speedsters). Then you have Braylon and Reggie Brown next. I think that one can look at the catch percentages of the people around Mike Williams in his own rookie year compared to all the top receivers from the past 7 years, and one can see that the only guys with catch percentages below 60% all went on to be what I would term basically busts - with the exception of Bowe and kind of Holmes.
I didn't want to continue typing because I've got to get back to my finals studying, but a quick examination of receivers who were successful from every year, but not at the top of the rookie receiving totals, showed a ton of guys over a 60% reception rate.
All in all, I think that we must evaluate each case on its own, but we have to also take note that Williams is a pretty close parallel to another promising Williams. I'd love to get a 1300 yard season out of him like the other, but just like Braylon Edwards, it looks like the odds are stacked against Tampa Bay Mike. I'm an owner in quite a few leagues, but I may be looking to sell if (and only if) I can get something I consider to be a pretty nice return.
EDIT: subtitle update (post 81)
EDIT2: another subtitle update (post 102)
Last edited by a moderator: