What is up with FBGs Projections? (1 Viewer)

[Uruk-Hai]

I'd ask this question:

Obviously the push is to get projections as soon as possible.

We've always been hesitant to throw out info that we don't have a lot of faith in. A projection done Monday night or Tuesday we honestly have VERY little faith in. I mean it can be done, but it's not even remotely something feel confident in. There is simply too much left to play out during the week.

But let's say we throw something up there. Say We rank Jay Cutler as the #12 QB on Tuesday. But because of things that happen during the week (or maybe nothing significant happens and we just are able to think about it more) he winds up as the #20 QB by Saturday night. Will folks be ok with that?

J

Joe, you already know the answer to that - a thread titled "I traded for Cutler on Monday because FBGs said he's be a #1...WTF!!!!" will be up in no time.You're gonna piss off a substantial amount of folks no matter what you do. However, I do think that prioritizing stuuf like prelim rankings/cheasheets/waiver wire pickups/upgrade-downgrades to hit the wire early would probably make the least amount of subscribers upset.

 

[davidwb]

Joe -- I think people would really like a preliminary projection of weekly stats on Tuesday evening, because many of us have waivers that run that night. Even if they change as prctice information comes out during the week, as they probably would be, those preliminary projections would be very useful. Some of the other contect could be pushed back to later in the week.

thanks.

 

[KCC]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

That's what you should have been doing, half of the content in my opinion is worthless ... the most important content that we need delivered on a timely basis is being forgotten for what? ... half ### stupid articles that nobody cares about. Hope it gets fixed for next year.

You're a genial chap, aren't you?

 

[benm3218]

I'd ask this question:Obviously the push is to get projections as soon as possible. We've always been hesitant to throw out info that we don't have a lot of faith in. A projection done Monday night or Tuesday we honestly have VERY little faith in. I mean it can be done, but it's not even remotely something feel confident in. There is simply too much left to play out during the week. But let's say we throw something up there. Say We rank Jay Cutler as the #12 QB on Tuesday. But because of things that happen during the week (or maybe nothing significant happens and we just are able to think about it more) he winds up as the #20 QB by Saturday night. Will folks be ok with that?J

Yes. Because honestly the ones we are interested in are more the guys that will be waiver pickups and we want to see this:Ok, player X has hurt leg. Player Y came in and seemed to do good. But, against Defense Z is player Y a good pickup?So even if that gets tweaked some, we want general guidelines so we can decide on waiver priority. At least half of Tuesdays content is not read or looked at in my opinion. All that data stuff that gets put out isn't necessary. I'd prioritize some real projections for offense and defense and push the data stuff to Wednesday. Thanks for listening.

Joe - I meant half of Tuesdays content might really be unnecessary. All the number crunch stuff isn't quite as important as the info that affects waiver pickups etc. Thanks for listening, and I enjoy the subscription.

 

[davidwb]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

For those of us in multiple leagues, especially with different rules, having preliminary data early in the week in LD makes roster management much easier. We can choose to use the information or not -- but Joe, David, et al have some pretty good views of the teams and players. That's why we subscribe. Why would you pay them if you didn't at least consider their insights?

 

[Joe Bryant]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

 

[benm3218]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

I do, and I understand... You see on our side this whole thing is kind of like magic. We log on and see content and are happy. We don't understand all the backend stuff... I think maybe even a cheat sheet with player rankings at the positions would help. That way if I am looking at replacing a Safety I can see they rank a guy at spot 7 and he is on my waivers.

Would rankings be safer than projections? Of course they would be tweaked too, but it might be easier since you didnt have to worry about assigning points?

 

[Sarnoff]

You're not alone. There's been an ongoing discussion here.

It's been an ongoing gripe in the LD forum for a LONG time.

YEARS actually. At this point, it's pretty embarrassing.

 

[phrozen]

The other thing that is iritating is the non-response from anyone at FBG's so far in this thread. I own 2 buisnesses and reposnding quickly to dissatisfied customers is the most important thing you can do as a business person. I'm pretty shocked actually. They have to know that this thread is is active and growing by the minute. Very strange....

Dodds would be the right one to chime in here, but he's occupied with trying to get content up on the site.I'm not sure what the rest of the staff can add except that we're sorry for missing our deadlines, we're not trying to make excuses, we appreciate your business, and we'll try to do better in the future. We do understand that people expect stuff to be delivered on time, and that it's frustrating when it isn't.Dodds cares a ton about providing a great product with great customer service, so I know he's scrambling to get the projections posted as quickly as he can, and he's more disappointed than anybody about making people wait.

Maurile said it all. I am certain that David's unfortunate and untimely issue with his desktop hard drive is the main contributing factor to this situation. He has the material backed up on other computer resources, but I know that David's desktop is a really muscular computer with lots of processing power - any of his other resources are almost certainly not as powerful and this is probably delaying the processing/posting of this week's projections.Thanks for your patience and understanding, the last thing we aim to do around here is disappoint any of our valued subscribers. MW

Couple of caveats before I begin. I haven't subscribed in years because I found that I just didn't use the info. I liked it when I read it, but found I wasn't reading it so... I love the site though, always have since the cheatsheet days. I also think that the staff around here is AMAZING around here in terms of attitude and for the most part support. You aren't likely to find too many "nicer" businessmen.OK, all that said, this post is hilarious. "'Dave's desktop is a really muscular computer."? Wow. First, I can't think of any application on here that would require any more processing power than could be found on the average laptop (in terms of content generation - delivery is very different matter of course, but that is accomplished on web servers etc.). You are compiling some text and uploading data into an already existing suite of database tools. If that requires a lot of processing power, you're doing something wrong. I'm not saying this stuff doesn't take a long time to compile (not in the geek sense, but in the real-world sense), I'm sure it does. But we aren't talking about super-collider,or antenna-array data here.Second, as MANY people have already mentioned, this is a company offering paid services. A company (particularly an internet content delivery company) shouldn't be storing ANYTHING important on the hard-drive of a desktop computer. Just shouldn't happen. Sure, you can work on a local copy for a while maybe (although even that is probably not necessary), but the content should be on networked machines with multiple backup options. It's not hard, and it's not expensive - there are a million options. Relying on one hard drive on one desktop machine (if that's indeed the case) is BEYOND ridiculous in this day and age.I know I'm not adding much here, and I know there's not much to say on the staff's part at this point, but responses like this just aren't helping the cause. "Muscular computer". Jeesh.

"muscular computer" made me too. With my job I perform a lot of data analysis involving many files often with 60+ columns and millions of records. I am able to load, analyize, combine, and export millions of lines of data on a standard issued business laptop without skipping a beat.I can't imagine a scenario where Dodds needs a "musclar computer" to process fantasy football projections.

 

[TheDemon]

We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

I never really had any issues with your early (preliminary) rankings, and even if end up wildly differing from what appears late in the week, they can still give us a quick-glimpse idea of what's coming up in the following weekend without looking heavily into matchups and other data. I personally think it's interesting to watch as rankings change during the week.Also, Tuesday evening content that appears online in West-coast time isn't very useful for people on the East coast (at least not those who get up early for work on Wednesdays).

 

[KCC]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

For those of us in multiple leagues, especially with different rules, having preliminary data early in the week in LD makes roster management much easier. We can choose to use the information or not -- but Joe, David, et al have some pretty good views of the teams and players. That's why we subscribe. Why would you pay them if you didn't at least consider their insights?

I have never (and will never) pay for fantasy football advice.

 

[The Football Freak]

I'd ask this question:Obviously the push is to get projections as soon as possible. We've always been hesitant to throw out info that we don't have a lot of faith in. A projection done Monday night or Tuesday we honestly have VERY little faith in. I mean it can be done, but it's not even remotely something feel confident in. There is simply too much left to play out during the week. But let's say we throw something up there. Say We rank Jay Cutler as the #12 QB on Tuesday. But because of things that happen during the week (or maybe nothing significant happens and we just are able to think about it more) he winds up as the #20 QB by Saturday night. Will folks be ok with that?J

Why not put out a "from the gut" tiering of players on Tuesday evening EST? I usually have my own idea of projections, and don't mind looking over information wednesday and thursday to see if I'm missing anything glaring, but it seems a lot of people need some kind of projections to be ready for the first waivers of the week. I think that is understandable. If you put it into tiers, it will give the subscriber an idea of what you are thinking, while also not nailing down any specific stats that may change as they get tweaked through Friday. I would agree with your's and Dodds' sentiments that the Friday projections tend to be the best, but most subscribers are probably new to the game and feel they need that edge.

 

[Joe Bryant]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

I do, and I understand... You see on our side this whole thing is kind of like magic. We log on and see content and are happy. We don't understand all the backend stuff... I think maybe even a cheat sheet with player rankings at the positions would help. That way if I am looking at replacing a Safety I can see they rank a guy at spot 7 and he is on my waivers.

Would rankings be safer than projections? Of course they would be tweaked too, but it might be easier since you didnt have to worry about assigning points?

Thanks. Yes, rankings are tons easier than projections. The projections that David does have a zillion factors and lots of data stuff. A simpler "gut feel" cheatsheet ranking would be much more doable for Tuesday. As was said above, I'm sure there will be people screaming if a Prelim Tuesday cheatsheet ranking wound up being radically different than the Saturday projection (even when no huge news broke) but that would be something people would just have to accept.That more in line with what you're thinking?

J

 

[Sarnoff]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

Dodds promised Tuesday night Offensive Projections on Sept. 4th, by my count this was the third year FBG's promised projections by Tuesday night and the third year that this deadline has been missed on at least 10 different weeks in the season.

Full Schedule (Week 2 - 17)

Tuesday

MNF Game Recap - Bloom

Final Stats - Dodds

Final YTD Stats - Dodds

Final YTD Stats (PPG) - Dodds

Final Targets - Drinen

Target Details - Drinen

Final Redzone - Drinen

Data Dominator - Drinen

Historical Data Dominator - Drinen

Game Log Dominator - Drinen

Matchup Data - Dodds

Contest Results - Drinen

Updated Upgrades/Waiver - Waldman and staff

The Marketplace - Tefertiller

Dynasty Implications - Tefertiller

Rookie Profile - Tefertiller

Ultimate Survivor Recap

Def Stats Allowed - Herman

ST Stats Allowed - Herman

Gamebooks - Dodds

FP Scored/Allowed - Gray

FP Matchups - Gray

Strength of Schedule - Gray

Tuesday Night

Game Predictor - Dodds

Offensive Projections - Dodds

IDP Projections - Norton

Custom Cheatsheets/MyFBG - Drinen

Prelim Cheatsheets/Rankings - Dodds/Norton ***

Players in the News - Gray ***

Wednesday

Lineup Dominator - Henderson

Custom Top 250+ - Drinen

20/20 Hindsight - Waldman

Fool's Gold - Gray

Team Capsules - Dodds

Weather Report - Gray

Trader Joe's - Pasquino

Hot Reads - Pasquino

Monopoly - Pasquino/Tefertiller

Reading the Defense - Bramel

Returnerguys - Herman

Penalty Plays - Hicks

Dynasty Watch - Tefertiller/Pasquino

Like I said in the other thread, I think the stuff promised to be delivered Tuesday should be done by 9PM Pacific every Tuesday/Midnight eastern. If you could make that deadline every week, like was promised, there'd be a lot fewer complaints.

 

[MIMN]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

If that were the case, the only people that should subscribe or be on this board are first year players. Nobody else needs any of the data since they have it.Not everyone has the time or knowledge to analyze how that injury on the defense will or won't impact the #2 WR on the other team for this week. Most of us have full-time jobs doing something other than fantasy football.

If all people were looking for was any projection they could easily go get that from Yahoo/CBS/ESPN. The objective is to get thoughts from those you respect.

Since you don't respect the opinion of the FBG's then there really isn't a point of posting that in here other than to try to make yourself feel superior to others. Shouldn't finishing #1 every year in every league you join and always playing an optimum lineup already do that for you?

 

[benm3218]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

I do, and I understand... You see on our side this whole thing is kind of like magic. We log on and see content and are happy. We don't understand all the backend stuff... I think maybe even a cheat sheet with player rankings at the positions would help. That way if I am looking at replacing a Safety I can see they rank a guy at spot 7 and he is on my waivers.

Would rankings be safer than projections? Of course they would be tweaked too, but it might be easier since you didnt have to worry about assigning points?

Thanks. Yes, rankings are tons easier than projections. The projections that David does have a zillion factors and lots of data stuff. A simpler "gut feel" cheatsheet ranking would be much more doable for Tuesday. As was said above, I'm sure there will be people screaming if a Prelim Tuesday cheatsheet ranking wound up being radically different than the Saturday projection (even when no huge news broke) but that would be something people would just have to accept.That more in line with what you're thinking?

J

For me and I would think most, this would be perfect. It would give me something to go on. The Upgrades article is great but if you also had this preliminary ranking it would help you set those wednesday waivers.

 

[Ray_T]

Ok FGB enough is enough.My waivers run Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (1:30am so 11:30pm my time). At the beginning of the season Projections were promised on Tuesdays. Week one that slipped to Wednesday "early morning". I turned a blind eye because it was Week 1, you guys had a decent excuse about it being Week 1, and you needed a week of data to go by (or something along those lines).So Week two rolls around and on Tuesday I'm looking for projections to help with my waivers but guess what they are late again. The date was promised Tuesday, which then was changed to late Tuesday, which then was changed to early Wednesday morning.From Week two until today we've been given projections early Wednesday morning. Today this has changed yet again because they weren't there this morning either...Now It's almost 3pm EST and still no projections. The projections links have been convieniently put with all of the other week 12 articles which I think is extremely unproffessional. If you can't make your own self-imposed deadlines then perhaps it's time to hire some more help?Now we have three games tomorrow and still no projections. Even CBS is capable of putting out projections and articles ON TIME every week, and they even put them out EARLY when there are Thursday games.I'm sorry if I expect more from FBGs than this or that I expect more from FGBs than CBS. Perhaps I have too high standards?I'm sure I'm going to get lambasted for posting my opinion here. Please understand I am paying for a service and I expect that service to be delivered. Please do not give me the lame excuse of "heaven forbid you think for yourself" or "FBGs is just to advise you". We all pay for a subscription, we all deserve to get articles and projections when promised, and we, the customers, should not be the ones being inconvienienced here. FBGs should not be allowed to change when they will provided articles because the deadlines are inconvienient for them. If they are promised "early Wed. morning" then it should be set in stone at that time and delivered on time./End Rant

This was a problem for me early in the year too. I just started looking elsewhere for projections because I like to have a little more time to go over them and tweak things if I disagree with the numbers I've been presented with. I will still look at them before I do my final lineup, but when there is a thursday game I usually dont bother. I go with other websites exclusively on those weeks.it's unfortunate, but when you have games on Thursday and projections are not out on Wed. You really have no choice in the matter.

 

[The Rook]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

I do, and I understand... You see on our side this whole thing is kind of like magic. We log on and see content and are happy. We don't understand all the backend stuff... I think maybe even a cheat sheet with player rankings at the positions would help. That way if I am looking at replacing a Safety I can see they rank a guy at spot 7 and he is on my waivers.

Would rankings be safer than projections? Of course they would be tweaked too, but it might be easier since you didnt have to worry about assigning points?

Thanks. Yes, rankings are tons easier than projections. The projections that David does have a zillion factors and lots of data stuff. A simpler "gut feel" cheatsheet ranking would be much more doable for Tuesday. As was said above, I'm sure there will be people screaming if a Prelim Tuesday cheatsheet ranking wound up being radically different than the Saturday projection (even when no huge news broke) but that would be something people would just have to accept.That more in line with what you're thinking?

J

Joe,What would make the projections change significantly from Tuesday to Wednesday (with no huge news)? I'm not trying to be a smart### in asking that question. Just trying to understand what increases the confidence level from Tues to Wed.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Joe,What would make the projections change significantly from Tuesday to Wednesday (with no huge news)? I'm not trying to be a smart### in asking that question. Just trying to understand what increases the confidence level from Tues to Wed.

Just more time to think about things. And it wouldn't be dramatic from Tue to Wed. But it would wind up being a pretty big jump from Tue - Saturday. But I hear you. It's like buying a new computer. It's always good to wait. But you'll never get a computer if you keep waiting for the best deal. At some point, you just have to buy. I hear you.J

 

[Joe Bryant]

For me and I would think most, this would be perfect. It would give me something to go on. The Upgrades article is great but if you also had this preliminary ranking it would help you set those wednesday waivers.

Thanks. Let me chew on that. Thanks to all for the feedback.J

 

[MIMN]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

I do, and I understand... You see on our side this whole thing is kind of like magic. We log on and see content and are happy. We don't understand all the backend stuff... I think maybe even a cheat sheet with player rankings at the positions would help. That way if I am looking at replacing a Safety I can see they rank a guy at spot 7 and he is on my waivers.

Would rankings be safer than projections? Of course they would be tweaked too, but it might be easier since you didnt have to worry about assigning points?

Thanks. Yes, rankings are tons easier than projections. The projections that David does have a zillion factors and lots of data stuff. A simpler "gut feel" cheatsheet ranking would be much more doable for Tuesday. As was said above, I'm sure there will be people screaming if a Prelim Tuesday cheatsheet ranking wound up being radically different than the Saturday projection (even when no huge news broke) but that would be something people would just have to accept.That more in line with what you're thinking?

J

For me, that would be great. I'd prefer a projection but a prelim ranking would help in deciding in what direction to go on the waiver wire. That could be combined with the Top 250 Forward to give a short-term/long-term view. It would be awesome to have both ranks cross populated (player X is ranked 9th this week but 30th for the rest of the year).I expect to see projections change throughout the week. Will I get burned by it sometimes? Sure. Will there be postings complaining? Probably. Not nearly as many postings as we see on Tuesday along the lines of, "Who is the better WW pickup, A, B, or C?"

Thank you for responding to this thread.

 

[KCC]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

If that were the case, the only people that should subscribe or be on this board are first year players. Nobody else needs any of the data since they have it.Not everyone has the time or knowledge to analyze how that injury on the defense will or won't impact the #2 WR on the other team for this week. Most of us have full-time jobs doing something other than fantasy football.

If all people were looking for was any projection they could easily go get that from Yahoo/CBS/ESPN. The objective is to get thoughts from those you respect.

Since you don't respect the opinion of the FBG's then there really isn't a point of posting that in here other than to try to make yourself feel superior to others. Shouldn't finishing #1 every year in every league you join and always playing an optimum lineup already do that for you?

Easy - I wasn't attacking anyone personally. Sorry you took it that way and felt the need to reply in such a way. I respect a lot of people's opinions - it doesn't mean I should feel obligated to pay them for their opinions. You also don't have to do research on every player for every week of the season. The main part of the research takes place prior to your FF draft and you have all summer to do that (even if, like me, you have a job). During the regular season, I'm looking primarily at the players on my team and any possible FAs I'm thinking of acquiring. This is a voluntary hobby. If I don't want to spend time on it, I don't need to join a league.

 

[MIMN]

Joe,What would make the projections change significantly from Tuesday to Wednesday (with no huge news)? I'm not trying to be a smart### in asking that question. Just trying to understand what increases the confidence level from Tues to Wed.

Just more time to think about things. And it wouldn't be dramatic from Tue to Wed. But it would wind up being a pretty big jump from Tue - Saturday. But I hear you. It's like buying a new computer. It's always good to wait. But you'll never get a computer if you keep waiting for the best deal. At some point, you just have to buy. I hear you.J

Great analogy. Most of my computers get sold Tuesday evening after I go to bed.

 

[redaddy25]

For me personally it is not even so much that some information is not available on Tuesday's, it's when you post it will be available by 5AM, then I check back it is changed to 8AM, then I check back and it is early morning, then its lumped into the afternoon stuff. No one likes empty "promises" (I know it's not promised but you get what I mean).

I do agree that some type of cheatsheet / rough projection would be nice on Tuesday, and if it was completely changed by Saturday and their were legit reasons for the changes (injuries, etc) then I don't see that being a problem.

Lastly, for everyone that posts the "can't make your own decisions", "can't coach your own team" remarks just give it a rest. You wouldn't be on this site, or paying for the site, if you weren't using information to make your team better.

 

[trader jake]

The quality of the product isn't the issue. The issue is deadlines are not being met. If FBG's isn't confident that a quality set of projections can be released by the deadline...the deadline needs to change or the effort put into projections needs to increase (preferably the latter). A large number of subscribers would place projections as the most important item each week. Not meeting the deadline on that item is just bad business and has been an issue for years. Over the years we've read a lot of excuses (bad) and were asked questions (good) but in the end nobody cares about either of these.

Content wise: it should be FBG's #1 priority to get out quality weekly projections by a 10 PM EST Tuesday night deadline due to various league waivers, etc. Failure to do so will only hurt FBG's bottom line. Save the excuses. Save the questions. Just get it done.

 

[CommisR]

Yes, especially if it comes with an explanation, perhaps an updates article that discusses major shifts and the reasons for them.

I'd ask this question:Obviously the push is to get projections as soon as possible. We've always been hesitant to throw out info that we don't have a lot of faith in. A projection done Monday night or Tuesday we honestly have VERY little faith in. I mean it can be done, but it's not even remotely something feel confident in. There is simply too much left to play out during the week. But let's say we throw something up there. Say We rank Jay Cutler as the #12 QB on Tuesday. But because of things that happen during the week (or maybe nothing significant happens and we just are able to think about it more) he winds up as the #20 QB by Saturday night. Will folks be ok with that?J

 

[CommisR]

We'd like projections Tuesday not some time Wed.

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

 

[myhousekey]

Just to reitterate the 3 pages of what has already been said.

#1 priority for me is seeing projections before waivers run Wednesday morning (prefer if they were released Tuesday night but no later than 5 AM PST Wed morning)

Do I understand that those projections will likely change before the week is over? Yes, I do. But considering FBG's does this for a living I'd imagine their "first pass" on projections won't be that far off from what you see at the end of the week (barring changes from injury info).

 

[Ariakis]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

If I was making a schedule for FBG's it would look something like this:Sun/Mon/Tues - Game Recaps. I don't always read them as many sites cover a lot of it in near-real time these days, but it's not bad early content. Consider having each staffer give insight on the games as they watch.

Sun/Mon/Tues/Wed - Any stats or research documents the staffers use to finalize their predictions can be published but should NOT be a priority to be published.

Mon/Tues - WW/Upgrades/Downgrades - When did this change to a catch-all that gives a quick blurb about almost every player in the league that has little forward forethought? If a player did well they go up and if they did poor they go down. Very cliche this year and not very helpful. This should actually analyze potential changes in value.

* Highlight what's changed in each volume.

* Rank or tier them.

Tues/Wed/Thurs - Continue to produce look-ahead, dynasty, sleeper, etc reports as staffers get a better feel for what is to come.

Mon - Seasonal rankings forward and Trade Dominator. Figure out how to sync up your databases so you aren't so relying on Bruce to import and maintain multiple lists. Players in the Draft Dominator should always match the Lineup Dominator. When a key ranking/projections milestone is met, it should become automatically available to the related Dominator.

Mon/Tues - Publish baseline seasonal & weekly projections (and early SOS) asap. Adjust any obvious impacts to future projections for the Lineup Dominator. If ESPN, CBS, etc can get projections out on time every single week so can FBG's. In fact, they are always out EARLY on Tuesday. They have full projections Tuesday morning ... FBG's doesn't always have a basic cheatsheet until Wednesday.

Wed - Go back to versioning your Lineup Dominator projections releases at this point fine-tuning and tweaking projections to the normal quality we expect. Your late week projections are what seperates your company from others. Figure out a way to get baseline projections/rankings out early though.

Wed/Thurs - Deeper dives into sleepers, future fliers, staffer insight, projections, and dynasty content. Figure out some way to incorporate the staffers dynasty rankings into a version of the Trade Dominator so that it applies to our leagues. If we've taken the time to load a dynasty league it would be an awesome tool to cherry-pick the WW in a more visual fashion.

Anything else you produce ... probably isn't critical.

 

[Ariakis]

Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.

Without trying to oversimplify I think you answered your own question. If your league's WW deadline is prior to Friday would you want some insight prior to your deadline or after it? You can only handicap what is known. For example, if you project player XX to be the surprise RB1 this week and tomorrow we find out his entire OL got hit by a bus it's not unreasonable to downgrade his matchup as information changes.

 

[MCguidance]

Joe, I think it's great you are still heavily involved after all these years. It's awesome knowing that you're listening to the subscribers and their concerns. I do get a bit annoyed (not quite that strong, actually) but always value quality over quantity. Thanks for listen to everyone, even if it's not me.

 

[mdog1967]

Just to reitterate the 3 pages of what has already been said.#1 priority for me is seeing projections before waivers run Wednesday morning (prefer if they were released Tuesday night but no later than 5 AM PST Wed morning)Do I understand that those projections will likely change before the week is over? Yes, I do. But considering FBG's does this for a living I'd imagine their "first pass" on projections won't be that far off from what you see at the end of the week (barring changes from injury info).

It will be my last year for paid content here at FBG's. There is no magic to projections, and I don't play in leagues small enough for the waiver wire to be a weekly concern. Most players that have even the smallest chance of touching the ball are already on someones roster. I keep a spread sheet on my desktop with the roster of all teams I manage. I don't keep track of the other teams, I cant set their lineups so it dont matter. I check the average number of yards surrendered by the opposing team defense for each player. If two players are near equal in terms of production I start the one with the best match up, otherwise I start my studs. I check the news on my players and injury reports, of I course I take into account injuries to other members of the players team, is the QB hurt, offensive line injuries, is my stud WR going against a shut down CB and so on. I spend about 20 minutes on Tuesday or Wednesday checking the news and then set my lineup. I check the news again on Friday, maybe on Saturday and always on Sunday about 1 hour before the game starts. Its not a perfect system but it works for me. I usually don't have an option for most of my leagues to worry about updates before the Monday night games.If you pay hard earned money for anything you expect a certain quality of product and or service. I don't just question the service as of late, but I think the quality of the information is marginal. If the folks cant get the information posted on time and are unable to address the issue after repeated complaints, then how much effort are they really putting into the content. From under the tree, it appears this sight is a hobby masquerading as a business. Its not a staff issue, its an ownership/management issue. The fish stinks from the head down.Extrapolating the trend FBG's will get worse, not better.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Just to reitterate the 3 pages of what has already been said.#1 priority for me is seeing projections before waivers run Wednesday morning (prefer if they were released Tuesday night but no later than 5 AM PST Wed morning)Do I understand that those projections will likely change before the week is over? Yes, I do. But considering FBG's does this for a living I'd imagine their "first pass" on projections won't be that far off from what you see at the end of the week (barring changes from injury info).

It will be my last year for paid content here at FBG's. There is no magic to projections, and I don't play in leagues small enough for the waiver wire to be a weekly concern. Most players that have even the smallest chance of touching the ball are already on someones roster. I keep a spread sheet on my desktop with the roster of all teams I manage. I don't keep track of the other teams, I cant set their lineups so it dont matter. I check the average number of yards surrendered by the opposing team defense for each player. If two players are near equal in terms of production I start the one with the best match up, otherwise I start my studs. I check the news on my players and injury reports, of I course I take into account injuries to other members of the players team, is the QB hurt, offensive line injuries, is my stud WR going against a shut down CB and so on. I spend about 20 minutes on Tuesday or Wednesday checking the news and then set my lineup. I check the news again on Friday, maybe on Saturday and always on Sunday about 1 hour before the game starts. Its not a perfect system but it works for me. I usually don't have an option for most of my leagues to worry about updates before the Monday night games.If you pay hard earned money for anything you expect a certain quality of product and or service. I don't just question the service as of late, but I think the quality of the information is marginal. If the folks cant get the information posted on time and are unable to address the issue after repeated complaints, then how much effort are they really putting into the content. From under the tree, it appears this sight is a hobby masquerading as a business. Its not a staff issue, its an ownership/management issue. The fish stinks from the head down.Extrapolating the trend FBG's will get worse, not better.

Thanks for the feedback and I'm sorry you feel that way. I can assure you it's not an effort issue. But I do agree with you that the responsibility rests with me. I'll do my best with it. J

 

[grabnmcbutt]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

Assuming that just because a person wants to see projections (that he paid for) means he automatically going to follow those projections is just plain silly. It's all about information and gathering as much information about players as possible. If I pay for information then it should be delivered when promised. I've been with FBG for a number of years as well as another well know site. The other is always on time with it's promised content. Obviously projections are all about opinions and I like to look at as many projections as possible before I develope my own opinion as to my lineup.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Don't tell me you use other people's 'projections' 'guesses' to set your lineup.

Here's some real advice: Coach your team.

Unless it's your first year in FF, you shouldn't have to rely on someone else to decide who to draft or who to start. There are no criteria one must meet in order to call themselves a FF ""expert" and everyone has the same data to look at when making decisions.

Assuming that just because a person wants to see projections (that he paid for) means he automatically going to follow those projections is just plain silly. It's all about information and gathering as much information about players as possible. If I pay for information then it should be delivered when promised. I've been with FBG for a number of years as well as another well know site. The other is always on time with it's promised content. Obviously projections are all about opinions and I like to look at as many projections as possible before I develope my own opinion as to my lineup.

Yes, that's how most people use the subscription stuff. There will always be a group of people that will never ever pay no matter what. We knew that going in and that's fine. They can contribute and use the boards here that I will keep free.J

 

[Stinkin Ref]

it's great that you don't want to put your name behind something you don't feel confident in (early projections).....who does?....so if it makes you uncomfortable to do so.....don't do it.....change your deadlines....then you just have to deal with whether or not you are able to provide a service that people want......if they want it by Tuesday, they go somewhere else.....but don't say your are going to deliver the information by Tuesday, then take people's money, and then not deliver.....at that point nobody cares about you standing up and pounding your chest about how you only want to put out something that you feel confident in.....they only want you to do what you said you would do....

I think EVERY fantasy player understands that early projections are just that......early projections.....you will get all kinds of slack if you just do what you say you are going to do.....

 

[Lehigh98]

Suggestion for Joe:

Create a survey for current members to rank each of the items you produce (preseason and weekly updates) on a 1 - 10 scale based on the value they see in them or how often they use them. Trim down on some of the 1 - 3 (or wherever the data shows the boundry should be) stuff to pick up some more time to focus on the 8 - 10 stuff.

Not sure if I remember you doing this before but not sure how else you would look to improve without soliciting this type of feedback (as well as some others probably) anyway.

Thanks again for you efforts from a longterm follower from back in the Cheatsheet.net days.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Suggestion for Joe:Create a survey for current members to rank each of the items you produce (preseason and weekly updates) on a 1 - 10 scale based on the value they see in them or how often they use them. Trim down on some of the 1 - 3 (or wherever the data shows the boundry should be) stuff to pick up some more time to focus on the 8 - 10 stuff.Not sure if I remember you doing this before but not sure how else you would look to improve without soliciting this type of feedback (as well as some others probably) anyway.Thanks again for you efforts from a longterm follower from back in the Cheatsheet.net days.

Thanks Lehigh. Love seeing old timers like you here. Yes, we've done a survey the last couple of years and the data we get back is right in line with what you guys are saying. Cheatsheet/projections are really the big draw. We'll keep working on this.Thanks for being with us so long.J

 

[joffer]

Most waivers run Wednesday morning

seriously? most?i've never played in a league that processes waivers Wed morning.

 

[Sarnoff]

Most waivers run Wednesday morning

seriously? most?i've never played in a league that processes waivers Wed morning.

Almost every one I've ever done has them run sometime between 2AM and 7AM Wednesday. I've never seen one that waits until Friday to do the first run for the week... when is when the projections are sometimes out by.

 

[norgay]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

That's what's going to be troublesome. We can do projections anytime. I mean we could do week 16 projections tonight if we wanted. But they'd be crap. It won't be as bad, but an early Tuesday projection will be really shaky compared to the level of confidence we normally have in our projections. Are people going to be ok if you make a pickup on Wednesday based on a Tuesday projection that is wildly different by Friday? That's my biggest worry.The smart business answer is to "give people what they want" and produce a pretty looking set of projections Tuesday morning. They'd look ok on the surface but we'd know they would be VERY low quality given the time frame allowed to produce them in. We've just always been hesitant to put our name on something that we don't feel is the best quality. You see where we're coming from on this?

J

I do, and I understand... You see on our side this whole thing is kind of like magic. We log on and see content and are happy. We don't understand all the backend stuff... I think maybe even a cheat sheet with player rankings at the positions would help. That way if I am looking at replacing a Safety I can see they rank a guy at spot 7 and he is on my waivers.

Would rankings be safer than projections? Of course they would be tweaked too, but it might be easier since you didnt have to worry about assigning points?

Thanks. Yes, rankings are tons easier than projections. The projections that David does have a zillion factors and lots of data stuff. A simpler "gut feel" cheatsheet ranking would be much more doable for Tuesday. As was said above, I'm sure there will be people screaming if a Prelim Tuesday cheatsheet ranking wound up being radically different than the Saturday projection (even when no huge news broke) but that would be something people would just have to accept.That more in line with what you're thinking?

J

Joe,There is absolutely no reason for people to be upset. On Tuesday/Wednesday we are forced to make waiver wire decisions based in imperfect information. Of course we understand that you don't know what will happen later in the week -- we just need to know what you are thinking as of TUESDAY and why.

More importantly, this may come as a surprise, but I don't really care what David Dodds' exact projections are based on the zillion data points you mentioned. Real life will never be as neat as David's excel spreadsheet and his exact projections will never be accurate. What matters to me is what David thinks directionally. Directionally, will Player X do better during the upcoming week/s than he has in the past making him a good pickup? Why or why not? Whether that translates into 15 points, 17.5 points, or 19.3 points is almost irrelevant when making a decision on Tuesday. It's the general range that counts with the underlying reasons that is so helpful.

Thanks for listening.

 

[Chaka]

Heaven forbid you think for yourself.

 

[Mark Wimer]

The other thing that is iritating is the non-response from anyone at FBG's so far in this thread. I own 2 buisnesses and reposnding quickly to dissatisfied customers is the most important thing you can do as a business person. I'm pretty shocked actually. They have to know that this thread is is active and growing by the minute. Very strange....

Dodds would be the right one to chime in here, but he's occupied with trying to get content up on the site.I'm not sure what the rest of the staff can add except that we're sorry for missing our deadlines, we're not trying to make excuses, we appreciate your business, and we'll try to do better in the future. We do understand that people expect stuff to be delivered on time, and that it's frustrating when it isn't.Dodds cares a ton about providing a great product with great customer service, so I know he's scrambling to get the projections posted as quickly as he can, and he's more disappointed than anybody about making people wait.

Maurile said it all. I am certain that David's unfortunate and untimely issue with his desktop hard drive is the main contributing factor to this situation. He has the material backed up on other computer resources, but I know that David's desktop is a really muscular computer with lots of processing power - any of his other resources are almost certainly not as powerful and this is probably delaying the processing/posting of this week's projections.Thanks for your patience and understanding, the last thing we aim to do around here is disappoint any of our valued subscribers. MW

Couple of caveats before I begin. I haven't subscribed in years because I found that I just didn't use the info. I liked it when I read it, but found I wasn't reading it so... I love the site though, always have since the cheatsheet days. I also think that the staff around here is AMAZING around here in terms of attitude and for the most part support. You aren't likely to find too many "nicer" businessmen.OK, all that said, this post is hilarious. "'Dave's desktop is a really muscular computer."? Wow. First, I can't think of any application on here that would require any more processing power than could be found on the average laptop (in terms of content generation - delivery is very different matter of course, but that is accomplished on web servers etc.). You are compiling some text and uploading data into an already existing suite of database tools. If that requires a lot of processing power, you're doing something wrong. I'm not saying this stuff doesn't take a long time to compile (not in the geek sense, but in the real-world sense), I'm sure it does. But we aren't talking about super-collider,or antenna-array data here.Second, as MANY people have already mentioned, this is a company offering paid services. A company (particularly an internet content delivery company) shouldn't be storing ANYTHING important on the hard-drive of a desktop computer. Just shouldn't happen. Sure, you can work on a local copy for a while maybe (although even that is probably not necessary), but the content should be on networked machines with multiple backup options. It's not hard, and it's not expensive - there are a million options. Relying on one hard drive on one desktop machine (if that's indeed the case) is BEYOND ridiculous in this day and age.I know I'm not adding much here, and I know there's not much to say on the staff's part at this point, but responses like this just aren't helping the cause. "Muscular computer". Jeesh.

"muscular computer" made me too. With my job I perform a lot of data analysis involving many files often with 60+ columns and millions of records. I am able to load, analyize, combine, and export millions of lines of data on a standard issued business laptop without skipping a beat.I can't imagine a scenario where Dodds needs a "musclar computer" to process fantasy football projections.

Would manipulating a database that includes each play snapped during the NFL season over the last 20 years meet your definition of needing a "muscular computer"? With all of David's statistical programs that then manipulate and weight said data according to his inputted directions each week?It would meet mine from a layman's point of view. Admittedly, I'm not a tech guru like David or Keith, but I've been around here for over 10 years and I know for a fact that David's desktop would blow away my machine - and my machine is no slouch.

 

[Fiddles]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

exactly

 

[Fiddles]

Heaven forbid you think for yourself.

2nd opinions are nice to balance against

 

[grabnmcbutt]

Heaven forbid you think for yourself.

Ok, I’ll think for myself a minute….. This is a forum on a pay for information fantasy football site that you have been a member of for over six years. I think you probably get lots of good information from this site that has helped you make better roster/lineup decisions. And you’re just arrogant enough to imply that you are just “thinking for yourself”. Heaven forbid, I think that’s just a wee bit hypocritical of you.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

And to make sure I'm clearly understanding what you guys are saying:

You're not saying change this current schedule http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09week13.php

Just do better hitting the deadlines on this schedule.

Right?

J

No we are saying change it. Please if you can put out projections tuesday night. Most waivers run Wednesday morning and when projections come out its too late.

exactly

 

[joffer]

Most waivers run Wednesday morning

seriously? most?i've never played in a league that processes waivers Wed morning.

Almost every one I've ever done has them run sometime between 2AM and 7AM Wednesday. I've never seen one that waits until Friday to do the first run for the week... when is when the projections are sometimes out by.

we need a pole. i've seen posts on here that say their waivers are on Tuesday! that's crazy. less than 24 hours after the last game of week ended?

 

[Ariakis]

Most waivers run Wednesday morning

seriously? most?i've never played in a league that processes waivers Wed morning.

Almost every one I've ever done has them run sometime between 2AM and 7AM Wednesday. I've never seen one that waits until Friday to do the first run for the week... when is when the projections are sometimes out by.

we need a pole. i've seen posts on here that say their waivers are on Tuesday! that's crazy. less than 24 hours after the last game of week ended?

Here is your "pole".