So there's like 6 pages to catch up on - sorry if this post is a Honda.
Gaming out what the 3rd game situation will look like based on the 9 possible results of the 2nd game.
1) Germany Win, USA Win. Party time. Both Germany and USA will clinch.
2) Germany Win, USA Tie. Close to party time. USA will be able to advance with a win/tie vs Germany, a loss/tie by Portugal. If USA lose and Portugal win, USA still go through if combined results are a) a margin of 4 or less or b) a margin of 5 where Portugal does not outscore the USA by 3 or more. If the combined margin is 5 and Portgual outscores the USA by exactly 2 it goes to the dreaded drawing of lots. (example USA lose 4-1, Portugal wins 3-1).
3) Germany Win, USA Loss. USA would still make it with a) a Win over Germany and a Portugal tie/loss or b) a tie and a Portugal loss or c) a tie and Portugal tie (Provided the US loses to Portugal by 1 or 2) or d) a win over Germany, a Portugal win and the USA maintains a better goal-differential than either Portugal or Germany or 3) A loss, a Portugal loss and the USA maintains a better goal-differential than both Portugal and Ghana.
4) Germany Tie, USA win. Party time. USA will have clinched a spot. And a win or tie vs. Germany would give them the group title.
5) Germany Tie, USA tie. USA would clinch going through with a) a win or tie vs Germany or b) Portugal/Ghana end in a tie or c) a loss and a Portugal win with a favorable goals margin scenario as outlined in #2 above or d) a loss by exactly 1, a Ghana win by exactly 1 and the US ends up with the same number or more total goals than Ghana.
6) Germany Tie, USA loss. This is scarier. The USA would clinch a spot with a) a win over Germany or b) a tie and a Portugal tie provided the US lost to Portugal by 1 or 2 or c) a tie and a Ghana win provided the US loses to Portugal by exactly 1, Ghana wins by exactly 1, and the USA scores the same or more total goals as Ghana. In this scenario, a loss in game 3 definitely knocks the USA out.
7) Germany Loss, USA Win. Not quite as ideal a scenario as #1. The USA advances with a) a win or tie or b) a Ghana loss or tie or c) a loss and Ghana win provided I) USA has a better goal differential than Ghana or Germany or II) the USA has the same goal differential as the lesser of Ghana/Germany and has scored more goals or III) the USA has the same goal differential as Ghana but is behind Germany in a 3-way tie and has the name number of goals as Ghana. Basically while #1 means the USA can clinch on Sunday, this Scenario would mean in cannot.
8) Germany loss, USA tie. The USA advances with a) a win or tie or b) a loss and a Portugal win with a favorable goal-differential situation as in #2 or c) a loss by exactly 1, a Ghana/Portugal tie, and have the Germany loss to Ghana be by exactly 1 AND the US have the same or more total goals scored as Ghana.
9) Germany loss, USA loss. This means the standings will have everyone on 3 points. In this case the US advances with a) a win b) a tie and a Portugal/Ghana tie provided that either I) The USA lose by exactly 1 vs Portugal, Ghana wins by exactly 1 vs Germany and the USA has the same or more total goals than Ghana or II) The USA and Germany lose the 2nd game in such fashion that the USA ends up having a better goal differential than Germany or the same differential and more goals scored or the same goal differential, same goals scored and we win the drawing of lots or c) a tie and a Ghana win provided that he USA and Germany lose the 2nd game in such fashion that the USA ends up having a better goal differential than Germany or the same differential and more goals scored or the same goal differential, same goals scored and we win the drawing of lots or d) a tie and a Portugal win provided that he USA and Germany lose the 2nd game in such fashion that the USA ends up having a better goal differential than Germany or the same differential and more goals scored or the same goal differential, same goals scored and we win the drawing of lots. Basically in scenario 9 - the USA really will need to beat Germany.
So there you go
-QG