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[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

Maxx Williams: Early Projection Model Look

Posted on July 25, 2014 by Chad Parsons in UTH Insider // 0 Comments

More and more on UTHDynasty.com, Insiders will be given a sneak peak at upcoming prospects, just like Maxx Williams. The University of Minnesota tight end is not eligible for the NFL draft until 2015, but is already in Chad’s bloated prospect database and should be on the minds of dynasty and especially developmental dynasty owners.

There is very little tape out there on Maxx Williams, but here is the tight end getting loose down the seam for a game-winning touchdown in 2013:

As an athlete, in the clip and the estimations in the projection model, Williams is in the average range. If he does declare in 2015, he will be 21.4 years old, right there with the young guns like Eric Ebron and Austin Seferian-Jenkins of the 2014 draft class.

Maxx Williams: Production

The noteworthy aspect of Maxx Williams’ early projection model profile is his age-weighted production: He is already in the top 1% of all tight end prospects since the turn of the century. Williams’ age 19 season this past year was ridiculous. It was the best market share-based tight end season at that age in my entire database. The only two others to even approach Williams’ young prowess in college were Austin Seferian-Jenkins and A.C. Leonard, both from the 2014 draft class. Seferian-Jenkins finished his career with a 94 production score and Leonard had a mark of 83. In short, tight ends that produce at a high level early in their collegiate career are likely to continue that path.

Maxx Williams: Make it or Break it

The biggest key for Maxx Williams from now until the NFL draft will be his athleticism. The only tight ends with a production score of 85+ and athleticism mark below 40 are Evan Moore and Rob Blanchflower, both were not drafted inside the top-225 in the NFL draft. If Williams can maintain high-level production over the next two years and improve to even the 50 range of athleticism, he improves to the comparable range of Garrett Graham, Brandon Bostick, Kevin Boss, Marcedes Lewis, Chris Cooley, Heath Miller, and Todd Heap – a much different future fantasy football outlook.
Some recently posted Maxx Williams footage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdSF-jUzQTc

http://www.tout.com/m/k6ze8q

 
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A poor man's Ben Koyack.
LOL. Be serious please. Koyack isn't even the best TE on his own team, let alone the best Senior TE.
He's not as good as Eifert or Rudolph were, but I bet he'll get picked higher than Williams.

He has the look of an NFL tight end. Good combination of size and movement. A bit rough around the edges, but certainly a better athlete than Williams.

 
A poor man's Ben Koyack.
LOL. Be serious please. Koyack isn't even the best TE on his own team, let alone the best Senior TE.
He's not as good as Eifert or Rudolph were, but I bet he'll get picked higher than Williams.

He has the look of an NFL tight end. Good combination of size and movement. A bit rough around the edges, but certainly a better athlete than Williams.
How much would you bet?

There are 5-10 TEs that fit your description of Koyack. There is a reason he was outproduced by Troy Niklas even though they both saw the field about the same amount of snaps.

Koyack isn't a scrub and I haven't written him off yet. He just isn't that much better than these Seniors:

Braxton Deaver

Jeff Heuerman

Kivon Cartwright

Gerald Christian

Rory Anderson

CJ Uzomah

Tyreese Russell

Jake McGee

Clive Walford

Maxx Williams is much better as an athlete and player than Koyack to me and is very likely to lead his team in receiving again this season even though he isn't running routes 70-80% of the time like Amaro and Ebron.

The only reason you don't like Maxx Williams is because I like him much more than you. Otherwise, you probably don't even have a strong opinion on him. Lee/Beckham, Robinson/Parker part deux.

The only reason you like Koyack so much is because you probably don't watch enough TEs. It's ok to like Koyack a lot. If you think he's better than Maxx Williams, then he's got to be better than at least 5-10 other TEs. Please name those 5-10 TEs.

 
The only reason you don't like Maxx Williams is because I like him much more than you. Otherwise, you probably don't even have a strong opinion on him. Lee/Beckham, Robinson/Parker part deux.
The only reason you like Koyack so much is because you probably don't watch enough TEs. It's ok to like Koyack a lot. If you think he's better than Maxx Williams, then he's got to be better than at least 5-10 other TEs. Please name those 5-10 TEs.
I don't like Maxx Williams because I don't think he's a special talent. No other reason. You have said he has a chance to be a better prospect than Ebron. I don't see that. He's not a bad player, but he's fairly ordinary. Tall with some speed, but not a great athlete. Doesn't make special plays. The only thing that stands out about him is his stats. I think you've railed against "box score scouting" in the past, so it's a little ironic that you're using production as evidence against Koyack and in support of Williams.

There's some pretty extensive footage of Koyack's 2013 season on YouTube. He spends a lot of time as a blocker. If you want to paint that as a negative, you could do so. On the other hand, maybe they keep him in as a blocker because he's good at it? Blocking is part of the job description for a traditional in-line TE and if he excels in that department then I don't think it's a negative. It might actually boost his draft stock. His lack of production to date is forgivable considering that he had Tyler Eifert and Troy Niklas to contend with. Two guys who went top 52 in the draft. No shame in losing snaps or targets to players of that caliber. When Koyack has been given a chance to make plays as a receiver, he has generally acquitted himself well. Some examples below:

1:04 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=1m4s

4:39 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=4m39s

6:27 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=6m27s

8:12 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=8m12s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIFuyVjXVVw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8biKI2Jrk0o

I don't think Koyack is some kind of a monster talent. Just a solid prospect with obvious NFL talent. He'll get picked next year. The only question is how high. I would say middle rounds, but there are still some important data points remaining (combine and senior year performance will influence his draft slot). I don't have to think he's the next Jimmy Graham to think he's better than Maxx Williams though. That kind of reasoning only makes sense if I accept the idea that Williams is some kind of a great prospect in his own right, which I don't. I think he's just another mediocre talent that you've latched onto and overrated. You've done that quite often in the past (Jarius Wright, Antonio Andrews, countless others that I've forgotten). If I think Williams is mediocre and Koyack is slightly better than mediocre, that doesn't mean I "like Koyack so much."

I would say Koyack is a good candidate in really deep TE-premium devy drafts. I would not take him in a one round draft. I do think he looks like an NFL player though and will have a long career in the league, even if it's never as a top shelf star player or even a Dennis Pitta type. He has the frame, he can block, he moves pretty well, and his hands are solid. I think teams will value his skill set.

 
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Xue said:
Look, Melvin Gordon can catch:

With regards to Gordon, if I had to do over again I would have selected different words. I said he was a 'straight line runner' without knowing the full implications of that commentary. I didn't mean he lacked lateral agility to make people miss. My observation had to do with his running style, where he doesn't keep his pads parallel to the line of scrimmage. He sort of takes the approach of the gazelle rather than the rhinoceros, hence why I said he runs like wide receiver instead of a running back.

Along with you, a lot of people like Melvin, but not everybody has to agree. In your insistance, you're sort of behaving like rotoworld here. Instead, maybe we could just take it easy a little bit. If you can't appreciate a different view point even if you disagree with it, what are you doing here?

Keep in mind also, that I had only watched one of his games, so I had by no means made up my mind about him.

 
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EBF said:
Xue said:
The only reason you don't like Maxx Williams is because I like him much more than you. Otherwise, you probably don't even have a strong opinion on him. Lee/Beckham, Robinson/Parker part deux.
The only reason you like Koyack so much is because you probably don't watch enough TEs. It's ok to like Koyack a lot. If you think he's better than Maxx Williams, then he's got to be better than at least 5-10 other TEs. Please name those 5-10 TEs.
I don't like Maxx Williams because I don't think he's a special talent. No other reason. You have said he has a chance to be a better prospect than Ebron. I don't see that. He's not a bad player, but he's fairly ordinary. Tall with some speed, but not a great athlete. Doesn't make special plays. The only thing that stands out about him is his stats. I think you've railed against "box score scouting" in the past, so it's a little ironic that you're using production as evidence against Koyack and in support of Williams.

There's some pretty extensive footage of Koyack's 2013 season on YouTube. He spends a lot of time as a blocker. If you want to paint that as a negative, you could do so. On the other hand, maybe they keep him in as a blocker because he's good at it? Blocking is part of the job description for a traditional in-line TE and if he excels in that department then I don't think it's a negative. It might actually boost his draft stock. His lack of production to date is forgivable considering that he had Tyler Eifert and Troy Niklas to contend with. Two guys who went top 52 in the draft. No shame in losing snaps or targets to players of that caliber. When Koyack has been given a chance to make plays as a receiver, he has generally acquitted himself well. Some examples below:

1:04 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=1m4s

4:39 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=4m39s

6:27 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=6m27s

8:12 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=8m12s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIFuyVjXVVw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8biKI2Jrk0o

I don't think Koyack is some kind of a monster talent. Just a solid prospect with obvious NFL talent. He'll get picked next year. The only question is how high. I would say middle rounds, but there are still some important data points remaining (combine and senior year performance will influence his draft slot). I don't have to think he's the next Jimmy Graham to think he's better than Maxx Williams though. That kind of reasoning only makes sense if I accept the idea that Williams is some kind of a great prospect in his own right, which I don't. I think he's just another mediocre talent that you've latched onto and overrated. You've done that quite often in the past (Jarius Wright, Antonio Andrews, countless others that I've forgotten). If I think Williams is mediocre and Koyack is slightly better than mediocre, that doesn't mean I "like Koyack so much."

I would say Koyack is a good candidate in really deep TE-premium devy drafts. I would not take him in a one round draft. I do think he looks like an NFL player though and will have a long career in the league, even if it's never as a top shelf star player or even a Dennis Pitta type. He has the frame, he can block, he moves pretty well, and his hands are solid. I think teams will value his skill set.
Williams spends a lot of time inline as well. Troy Niklas spent a lot of time blocking, too. I mean, you did see him in the tape of Koyack and vice versa right?

It's funny how you don't previously accept my explanation for DeVante Parker's "lack" of production yet have a really good one for Koyack.

"Boxscore scouting" is saying a RB can't catch because he doesn't have a lot of receptions. I'd say that when it comes to WRs production does matter to an extent to me as far as how they are going to project to the NFL. The tape still matters, too.

As far as TEs go, college production does matters less because much of TE production in the NFL is largely usage-based. You either have to have shown some level of production or be close to a freak athlete (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook). Jason Witten only produced at DR of 27.2 as a 20-year old Jr, yet he's had four 1,000 yard seasons and three 900 yard seasons.

But when a TE posts the second best age-19 "Dominator Rating" (34.5) since 2005 behind only Rob Gronkowski, it can't be discounted and should be noted: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrEXRuzCUAANeqq.jpg

Dominator Rating is just one piece of the puzzle. I definitely put a lot of stock into video and what a guy will ultimately measure or what I think he'll measure. Maxx Williams looks great on tape and I think he'll be an adequate athlete at the position. I would say his movement skills aren't too far off from someone like Zach Ertz.

The basis of your argument of Ebron vs Williams is Ebron's draft slot. We've gone over this before extensively. Let me know where you posted that Ebron was a top 10 talent months before the draft. Let me know where I said Williams would be drafted in the top 10. If you saw Ebron's Combine numbers, you wouldn't even label him an elite TE prospect let alone the most athletic TE in his own class. That belongs to Colt Lyerla. Let me know when you want to compare Ebron's play on the field and Williams play on the field.

Let me know when you've actually watched Maxx Williams. Let me know when you've watched more than just Williams and Koyack.

(I see you didn't bring up Beckham, Parker, and Coates again. I wonder why.) Why is it that when we disagree on players, it goes back to my "habit"? I'm not the one bringing the discussions in that direction, you are. I'd prefer to just talk about the players at hand. If you wish to talk about Jarius Wright, Antonio Andrews, Chris Boyd, Brian Quick, you're free to do it in the appropriate thread. So let's stop slandering me.

 
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Let me know when you've actually watched Maxx Williams. Let me know when you've watched more than just Williams and Koyack.
Dude please. You play this card any time someone disagrees with you. You live in an imaginary universe where your opinions are gospel and anyone who disagrees with you must not have watched the tape or else they would've reached the same conclusion. In general, you seem to have a really big problem with opinions that conflict with yours. You need to understand that two people can look at the same player and reach wildly different conclusions about his future. I think Koyack is a better prospect than Williams. Those others TEs are completely irrelevant to that claim. What does my opinion on Deaver have to do with my opinion on Williams or Koyack? Absolutely nothing.

I think Ebron is a much better prospect than Williams and his draft slot is just a reflection of that, not the cause. When you say that a college TE is on the level of an elite prospect, the burden of proof falls on you to justify the claim since the odds are against any given player being that good. I've seen nothing from Williams that makes me think he has a first round ceiling. If you want specifics, Ebron is much more sudden, fluid, and mobile than Williams. He plays with better balance and agility. He's also more explosive. If you want to provide some slow-motion GIFs to contest those claims then have at it, but I've seen quite a bit of both players and that's what I took away from it.

I'm not really that keen on ad hominem arguments in general, but at some point it becomes an unavoidable part of the conversation. Knowing a person's tendencies influences how you're going to interpret his analysis. If I know somebody is prone to grossly overrating mediocre prospects, that's going to influence how seriously I'm going to take his future claims. In this case, I don't think Williams is anything special despite whatever you might say. Obviously you can disagree with that conclusion, but you can't expect me to change my mind just because I don't agree with you. There are lots of voices out there broadcasting opinions and I don't agree with all of them all the time. Nothing notable about that.

 
Let me know when you've actually watched Maxx Williams. Let me know when you've watched more than just Williams and Koyack.
Dude please. You play this card any time someone disagrees with you. You live in an imaginary universe where your opinions are gospel and anyone who disagrees with you must not have watched the tape or else they would've reached the same conclusion. In general, you seem to have a really big problem with opinions that conflict with yours. You need to understand that two people can look at the same player and reach wildly different conclusions about his future. I think Koyack is a better prospect than Williams. Those others TEs are completely irrelevant to that claim. What does my opinion on Deaver have to do with my opinion on Williams or Koyack? Absolutely nothing.

I think Ebron is a much better prospect than Williams and his draft slot is just a reflection of that, not the cause. When you say that a college TE is on the level of an elite prospect, the burden of proof falls on you to justify the claim since the odds are against any given player being that good. I've seen nothing from Williams that makes me think he has a first round ceiling. If you want specifics, Ebron is much more sudden, fluid, and mobile than Williams. He plays with better balance and agility. He's also more explosive. If you want to provide some slow-motion GIFs to contest those claims then have at it, but I've seen quite a bit of both players and that's what I took away from it.

I'm not really that keen on ad hominem arguments in general, but at some point it becomes an unavoidable part of the conversation. Knowing a person's tendencies influences how you're going to interpret his analysis. If I know somebody is prone to grossly overrating mediocre prospects, that's going to influence how seriously I'm going to take his future claims. In this case, I don't think Williams is anything special despite whatever you might say. Obviously you can disagree with that conclusion, but you can't expect me to change my mind just because I don't agree with you. There are lots of voices out there broadcasting opinions and I don't agree with all of them all the time. Nothing notable about that.
Show me where you said Ebron was an elite prospect BEFORE he was drafted and BEFORE there were rumblings of him being a top half 1st rounder. Until then, you only label him an elite prospect because you KNOW his draft slot.Why aren't Michael Crabtree and Darrius Heyward-Bey labeled elite prospects because of their draft slots? Ebron isn't even that much more athletic at TE than Crabtree is at WR.

Haven't you considered that perhaps there's a TE prospect that COULD be as good as or better than Eric Ebron? Doesn't even have to be Maxx Williams. No, you've already made up your mind because you are stuck on his high draft slot. I'm sure you find yourself on the opposite of the "draft slot argument" with other players as well like Jace Amaro and Jordan Reed.

If Maxx Williams is mediocre than who else is above mediocre? CJ Fiedorowicz and Crockett Gillmore are mediocre and were 3rd rounders. Maxx Williams is clearly better than those two. Richard Rodgers was a 3rd rounder as well and, while a was a big fan, Maxx Williams is better than him as well.

You weren't high in Jace Amaro, but he ended being a high 2nd rounder. According to your logic, he must have had the talent to justify that draft slot, you know,the same range as a Zach Ertz.

 
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Show me where you said Ebron was an elite prospect BEFORE he was drafted and BEFORE there were rumblings of him being a top half 1st rounder. Until then, you only label him an elite prospect because you KNOW his draft slot.
I'm not sure it matters when we learned that Ebron was an elite prospect, so long as we learned it. Whether you thought he was a UDFA or an elite 1st round lock a year ago, the fact that he ended up being a unanimous 1st round talent by every pundit and going to the Lions 10th overall strongly suggests that he was a consensus elite prospect when the dust settled. I think that's more relevant to the discussion than where people might have had him a year ago.

All that said, Ebron was on my watch list after his big sophomore season. At that point I had him going anywhere from the 1st-4th round. It quickly became apparent during his final season that he belonged closer to the top of that range. If you need some quotes, have at it:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676170&page=12#entry15792889

TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina - Fluid athlete who runs routes like a big WR, almost like Eifert in that regard. Actually a decent blocker considering that he looks a little thin for a TE. The biggest negative I saw in the games I was able to find was his hands. He dropped way too many easy balls. Other than that, he's certainly an NFL caliber athlete and looks like he could go anywhere from the 1st-4th round in the draft.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676170&page=20#entry16117507

Eric Ebron highlights:

If you're going in the first round as a TE, chances are you're the top prospect at your position in your draft class. Not many prospects reach that level. If you are going to argue that a random college TE is that good then it seems to me you need to prove that he's exceptional. I have no problem with people hyping college players before they're drafted. Anyone who knows me knows that. I was a big advocate for Crabtree, Dez, Demaryius, Blackmon, Luck, and T-Rich at the college level EARLY in their careers. When I see a guy with obvious first round talent, I feel comfortable placing a lofty value on him long before his name is called in April-May.

Players of that caliber are really rare though. There might be 1-2 RBs, 3-4 WRs, and 1 TE picked in the first round in the average draft class. With that in mind, it actually makes a lot of sense to be skeptical in the face of hype. Most promising college players aren't THAT good. If you take the skeptical position, you're going to be right more often than not. For me to say that someone is on that level, I have to think he's one of the best players in the country and a nearly bulletproof talent. That is a very high standard and I try not pass it out cheaply like Halloween candy. Even as we speak right now there are maybe 6-7 guys who I REALLY like in college football and then just different tiers of players that I'm intrigued by/somewhat optimistic about.

Obviously Maxx Williams isn't on my short list. Neither is Koyack, but I do like him more than Williams. I'm not ready to put either player in the same zip code as Ebron based on what I've seen from them to date. It's always possible that that could change down the line, but it's unlikely. As I said previously, elite talents are rare by definition. FF is a game dominated by a small collection of super freaks (i.e. Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson). Hunting players of that caliber is my #1 concern in the rookie and dev draft, but it's hard to find someone who's the best player at his position within one draft class let alone somebody who can rank top 2-3 at his position across the last 6-7 draft classes. There are lots of promising players out there in the NCAA, but only a very small fraction of them have the kind of talent that really matters.

 
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Show me where you said Ebron was an elite prospect BEFORE he was drafted and BEFORE there were rumblings of him being a top half 1st rounder. Until then, you only label him an elite prospect because you KNOW his draft slot.
I'm not sure it matters when we learned that Ebron was an elite prospect, so long as we learned it. Whether you thought he was a UDFA or an elite 1st round lock a year ago, the fact that he ended up being a unanimous 1st round talent by every pundit and going to the Lions 10th overall strongly suggests that he was a consensus elite prospect when the dust settled. I think that's more relevant to the discussion than where people might have had him a year ago.
Then why do you argue vehemently again Maxx Williams being a high draft pick if you don't even know his draft slot yet?

It doesn't matter where Ebron was ultimately drafted because I'm not evaluating Williams on where he is drafted. I'm evaluating him based on his rFR year.

All that said, Ebron was on my watch list after his big sophomore season. At that point I had him going anywhere from the 1st-4th round. It quickly became apparent during his final season that he belonged closer to the top of that range. If you need some quotes, have at it:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676170&page=12#entry15792889

TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina - Fluid athlete who runs routes like a big WR, almost like Eifert in that regard. Actually a decent blocker considering that he looks a little thin for a TE. The biggest negative I saw in the games I was able to find was his hands. He dropped way too many easy balls. Other than that, he's certainly an NFL caliber athlete and looks like he could go anywhere from the 1st-4th round in the draft.
According to your logic, apparently elite talents can go anywhere from the 1st to 4th round. What round will Ben Koyack go since he's only above mediocre?

If you thought Ebron was an elite talent, why the broad range of projection? You didn't sound confident enough to call him a 1st rounder, but are so confident calling Williams mediocre. If Williams gets drafted in the 4th is he still mediocre? Or is he on the edge of being elite?

As I said previously, elite talents are rare by definition. FF is a game dominated by a small collection of super freaks (i.e. Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson).
And Eric Ebron isn't one of them.

 
What does Ebron have to do with Williams anyway? We're comparing Koyack and Williams. Must we always re-hash old topics?

I don't need to think that Williams is better than Ebron to think that he's better than Koyack or to think that he's the top TE for 2015. Just like someone doesn't need to think Bishop Sankey is better than Doug Martin or David Wilson to think he's the best RB in his own class.

So tell me, who is your top TE for 2015? Maxx Williams is mine. Whether he's as talented as or is going to get drafted as high as the top TE from a previous year is another topic altogether.

Actually, Williams is 1A for me and Jesse James is 1B.

 
GREAT ARTICLE ON MELVIN GORDON!!!

Gordon to prove NFL wrong

Gifted Wisconsin runner Melvin Gordon is out to change the way the NFL sees RBs

IT'S NEARING 3 A.M. in Madison, Wisconsin, and many of Melvin Gordon's teammates are lounging at home after a June night out -- splayed on couches, winding down, getting ready to call it a night. Gordon is not. To find him, you'd need to look to the front yard, where the 6-foot-1 junior has tossed a rope ladder to the ground and chosen this time, as good a time as any, to run a few agility drills. Bouncing on his toes, knees raised high, legs pumping like pistons, soaked in sweat, he's darting between each rung, an athlete's version of hopscotch. Leftrightleftright, ininoutout, leftrightleftright, ininoutout. If you didn't know better, you might think he was chasing something.

Gordon pauses, just long enough to catch his breath, and fires off a Snapchat to Kenzel Doe, a senior receiver for the Badgers: "Are you sleeping or getting better? I'm getting better."

Doe knows the routine well. "We'll all be hanging out, and Melvin will go home ... and do drills before he goes to bed," Doe says. "He's always going to do a little bit extra, something to help him get to where he's going."

Gordon stands in an elevator at Wisconsin's Camp Randall Stadium. If there was a button for "first round," he'd hit it.

Where Gordon is going -- or wants to go -- says as much about today's NFL as it does about the player himself. Entering the 2014 season, he's among the nation's premier running backs. He rushed for 1,609 yards a year ago, compiling at least 140 yards rushing in eight of his 13 games. He broke off four runs of 60 yards or more. He led the nation with 7.8 yards per carry.

He could easily have turned pro; the fourth-year junior received a second-round grade from the NFL draft advisory board, which likely would have been good enough to make him the first running back picked. Good enough for that -- but not good enough for Gordon. And so he got to work.

This offseason, he bulked up to 216 pounds, after arriving as a freshman at 195 pounds. He's squatted 510 pounds five times this summer; last year the most he could do was 465 pounds. "And that was maybe two reps," Gordon says.

The man who hasn't lost a fumble in his 288 career rushing attempts spent hours flexing his hands in a sand bucket, strengthening his grip and his forearms. Then Gordon, Doe and junior cornerback Devin Gaulden began running the entire lower section at Camp Randall Stadium ... wearing 25-pound vests.

It was an ambitious offseason -- by design. "He's not cocky," Doe says. "But [he believes] he's going to be the best running back in the country. If you call that cocky, I guess he is."

Gordon seems like a man out to prove a point, and further proof resides on his bedroom wall, where he has taped a lineup of his collegiate running back competition: Georgia's Todd Gurley, Alabama's T.J. Yeldon, Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, Miami's Duke Johnson. Gordon wants to beat them. He also wants to lift them up. "When I'm running sprints and lifting, I'm not just thinking about the guys in our room," he says. "I'm not just competing with them. I'm thinking about Gurley. I'm thinking about Yeldon, Abdullah and the new guys coming in.

"You hear a lot of things about running backs not being as important anymore. Some people in the NFL may think they don't need backs early in the draft. I want to change that."

THERE'S A WAR on running backs raging in our land, and the Paul Revere of that war is Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey. The Pac-12's offensive player of the year in 2013, Carey rushed for 1,885 yards and 19 touchdowns. He was arguably even better in 2012, when, as a consensus All-American, he rushed for a school-record 1,929 yards and 23 TDs on 6.4 yards per run. But it was at the NFL combine in February, when asked about the trend of running backs dropping in the draft, that Carey made like the town crier.

"Why in the hell didn't you tell me this a couple of years ago that running backs are going extinct?" said Carey, half-joking but half, you know, not. "I definitely would have went to corner or something." And when Carey went undrafted until the fourth round, what was most surprising was how unsurprising it was.

In the past five drafts, only three running backs have been top-20 picks, compared with 11 cornerbacks and 10 wide receivers -- even six safeties. In the past two drafts, not a single running back's name was called in the first round. It wasn't until the latter half of the second round in the 2014 draft that a back was taken, when Washington's Bishop Sankey went No. 54 overall to the Tennessee Titans. And the future hardly looks brighter: ESPN's Todd McShay has only one running back going in the first round of his most recent 2015 mock draft, projecting Gurley to sneak in at No. 30 overall.

Consider, if you will, the case of Todd Gurley. Had it not been for Johnny Manziel in 2012, Gurley surely would have been the SEC newcomer everybody was talking about that season. Despite sharing backfield duties with another true freshman, Keith Marshall, Gurley ran for 1,385 yards and 17 touchdowns. Last season he missed most of four games with an ankle injury but still flirted with 1,000 yards. One NFL coach called Gurley the closest thing he's seen to a "special" back the past few years.

Even so, Gurley -- like Gordon -- is a master craftsman of a trade that no longer has a market. Says Gurley: "You hear people saying that the running back position is underappreciated or going down in value. I feel like it's on us to bring it back, to be one of those backs who makes a team want to get you in the first round or the top five or top 10."

TITANS RUNNING BACKS coach Sylvester Croom has coached some of the game's best runners, including Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson and Chris Johnson -- all three of whom rushed for 2,000 yards in a season. Croom, in other words, knows what a difference maker looks like at the position. So it says something that Croom's advice for today's college runners who aspire to an NFL career is: Learn to catch the ball.

"Everything is about the passing game first in the NFL," Croom says. "If you can't play well in the passing game, you're going to be downgraded."

His slightly more specific advice? Just, you know, try to be Marcus Allen. "In today's game, he would be the ideal back," Croom says. "He was the best short-yardage runner I've ever seen, but he was also a great pass receiver and great pass protector. He could line up in the slot. You could put him back there with another back as a blocker. He could play every down. That's what we're all looking for."

Arkansas coach Bret Bielema, who coached at Wisconsin, recruited and signed Montee Ball, James White and Gordon. And he says the draft process will reveal Gordon's gifts: "What people don't understand is that Melvin will test out of this world. He has great speed and is so athletic and powerful, such a long strider. He reminds me a bit of Eddie George. I still remember our strength coach telling me when we signed him, 'Coach, this is the biggest freak we've ever signed,' and I'd say that's going to become readily apparent to a lot of people over this next season."

But in today's NFL, is that enough? It may be awhile before we see another running back go in the top 10, Croom says: "The way I look at it is that if I'm going to put a top-10 grade on a guy at running back, I have to think in my heart of hearts that he's going to be a Hall of Famer, and those guys are rare." Consider that in the 2015 ESPN 300, only four running backs are ranked among the top 50 players nationally. In the 2006, '07 and '08 classes, eight running backs cracked the top 50 each year.

So what's a young speedster to do when he's tapped by his coach to line up behind the QB? Hope that he doesn't get used too much. According to the NFL Players Association, the average NFL running back lasts just 2.57 years in the league -- the shortest career of all position players. Running backs have only so many hits in them. That's good news then for Gordon and Gurley, who have each shared ball-carrying duties with other backs in college. Neither has been asked to carry the ball 30-plus times a game.

Even today's high schoolers are aware that running backs have the athletic life span of a fruit fly. In late June, running back Jordan Scarlett, one of the top prospects in South Florida, backed out of his commitment to Florida Atlantic. His rationale? FAU would need him to carry the team, and he was trying to get his body "ready for the NFL."

"You used to think that you'd recruit all these kids, and if they didn't win the job at running back, you could move them to corner or safety," says Croom, who spent five seasons as the head coach at Mississippi State before returning to the NFL sideline in 2009. "Now you might have to talk some of those same kids into playing running back, especially if he's in the 190-pound range and runs a 4.4 or a 4.5. They know they can go play corner, go higher in the draft and remain healthy for a long time."

IF GORDON AND GURLEY are men on the wrong side of history -- or the wrong side of the ball -- it's notable that for many young players, that side is chosen for them. At North Carolina's Tarboro High School, Gurley, for one, spent much of his time on defense until his sophomore year. "My high school was so small that pretty much everybody was going to play two positions," he says. "I was at defensive end and moved to linebacker and then started developing my speed going into my 10th-grade year. They just told me, 'We're going to put you at running back.' "

Still, neither man is afraid to run into a headwind -- and Gordon seems almost to revel in it. "I think he likes being the dark horse," says his mother, Carmen.

Which helps explain why, if you live near the UW campus and look out your window on certain early mornings, you just might see a man dragging a rope ladder into his front yard. Yet again.

Gordon has something to prove, and the only way to do that is to prove an entire league wrong.

"He likes it when people aren't talking about him," says Carmen. "He has always been a kid who loves proving people wrong."

Melvin Gordon believes he is better than the NFL thinks. And that running backs are more important than the NFL thinks. And if it takes wearing a few bare patches into his yard to prove it, that's what he'll do.

"If they like me now," Gordon says, "they're going to love me later."

 
Jay Ajayi plays the part well, serving his offense as a solid all around back, picking up extra yards sometimes through sheer determination.(1)(2)(3) Most of the time he at least gets what's blocked. He does have some elusiveness and flexibility, (4) but I'd honestly like to see more of it. Too often he almost eludes a tackle, but the defender just barely brings him down. (5)(6) Given a clean shot on him mostly defenders just stop Ajayi right in his tracks. (7)(8)(9)

I don't think he's really a special player at all. Right now I'd have him ranked at least after Abdullah, and Gurley.

 
What does Ebron have to do with Williams anyway? We're comparing Koyack and Williams. Must we always re-hash old topics?
Exactly. All I'm saying is that I don't think Williams is anything special and that I think Koyack is a better prospect. Not that complicated.

 
What does Ebron have to do with Williams anyway? We're comparing Koyack and Williams. Must we always re-hash old topics?
Exactly. All I'm saying is that I don't think Williams is anything special and that I think Koyack is a better prospect. Not that complicated.
I've thrown more names out to measure Koyack up against. Why no strong feelings against those other names? How does Maxx Williams stack up to those names?

I've held a strong opinion against Koyack since before last season started. Based on any 2012 footage I could find and any written pieces, he just didn't stand out as much as Troy Niklas did. I was high on Niklas before the 2013 season started and actually was able to get him in one of my deeper Devys. Koyack actually went ahead of Niklas. The fact that they were both on the field a lot and even at the same time with Niklas outproducing Koyack by about 3 times speaks to how lesser of a talent he is.

It's like comparing Martavis Bryant and Sammy Watkins. In a vacuum, Martavis Bryant is probably "more talented" than Watkins. But if Bryant was really that good, the production would have been a lot closer as the case is between Beckham and Landry.

In a vacuum, Koyack is probably more talented than Niklas. But as football playere on the field, probably not. Just as Maxx Williams isn't even the most physically talented TE on his own team. That honor goes to Duke Anyanwu. Doesn't make Williams a worse prospect on the field.

 
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I've thrown more names out to measure Koyack up against. Why no strong feelings against those other names? How does Maxx Williams stack up to those names?
Didn't you just say Ebron is irrelevant because this discussion is about Williams and Koyack? My first post was specifically about those two players. If I go into the Tre Mason thread, I'm not doing so to talk about Bishop Sankey. Likewise, if I make a post about Williams and Koyack, that's not with the intention of talking about Braxton Deaver.

I don't think Williams is an especially good prospect. I think Koyack is a better athlete, football player, and prospect. That's all I intended to say. The fact that I feel that way despite not believing Koyack is on par with Eifert or even Rudolph tells you that I'm pretty ho-hum on Williams.

It's like comparing Martavis Bryant and Sammy Watkins. In a vacuum, Martavis Bryant is probably "more talented" than Watkins. But if Bryant was really that good, the production would have been a lot closer as the case is between Beckham and Landry.
I don't think Bryant is anywhere near as talented as Watkins. Some people use talent as a synonym for "physical tools," but to me a lot of the skill components and intangibles are talent as well. A good example would be Jake Locker vs. Andrew Luck. Locker might have a similar physical skill set, but his talent for the position pales in comparison. Luck was better in his first season as a starter at Stanford than Locker ever will be. Likewise, just because Bryant is tall with track speed doesn't mean he's a great talent. There are lots of guys who test well in drills, but don't move well on the field. Likewise, there are lots of guys with promising athletic traits who lack football skills.

 
Weekly Michael Dyer watch. If he doesn't make it in the NFL, he might have a role in the next Hulk movie. Yeesh.

http://collegespun.com/acc/louisville-big-east/photo-louisville-rb-michael-dyer-is-looking-incredibly-jacked-on-picture-day

Been tracking the practice reports over the last week. Generally very positive.

Jake McKinney ‏@jake0335 5m

Michael Dyer looks like a different player. Fitness level is way up. Exploding in the secondary.

Jeff Greer ‏@jeffgreer_cj 7h

Petrino: Michael Dyer "keeps getting better. His quickness and speed is back to where it needs to be." Says last night's practice stood out.

This comes from the Louisville scout.com affiliate publisher:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=17&f=2964&t=13040844

--Michael Dyer might end up being the lead back. Not to take anything away from Dominique Brown - who is up to 245 - but Dyer is special and talented and the coaches just keep talking about how he "just keeps improving," per Kolby Smith and also Bobby Petrino.
T-minus three weeks until the monster runs rampant on Miami. Send out those lowball devy offers while you still can.

 
Weekly Michael Dyer watch. If he doesn't make it in the NFL, he might have a role in the next Hulk movie. Yeesh.

http://collegespun.com/acc/louisville-big-east/photo-louisville-rb-michael-dyer-is-looking-incredibly-jacked-on-picture-day

Been tracking the practice reports over the last week. Generally very positive.

Jake McKinney ‏@jake0335 5m

Michael Dyer looks like a different player. Fitness level is way up. Exploding in the secondary.

Jeff Greer ‏@jeffgreer_cj 7h

Petrino: Michael Dyer "keeps getting better. His quickness and speed is back to where it needs to be." Says last night's practice stood out.

This comes from the Louisville scout.com affiliate publisher:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=17&f=2964&t=13040844

--Michael Dyer might end up being the lead back. Not to take anything away from Dominique Brown - who is up to 245 - but Dyer is special and talented and the coaches just keep talking about how he "just keeps improving," per Kolby Smith and also Bobby Petrino.
T-minus three weeks until the monster grown man runs rampant on Miami a team of 18-20 year old boys. Send out those lowball devy offers while you still can. Discount every play you see from Dyer this year.
 
Weekly Michael Dyer watch. If he doesn't make it in the NFL, he might have a role in the next Hulk movie. Yeesh.

http://collegespun.com/acc/louisville-big-east/photo-louisville-rb-michael-dyer-is-looking-incredibly-jacked-on-picture-day

Been tracking the practice reports over the last week. Generally very positive.

Jake McKinney ‏@jake0335 5m

Michael Dyer looks like a different player. Fitness level is way up. Exploding in the secondary.

Jeff Greer ‏@jeffgreer_cj 7h

Petrino: Michael Dyer "keeps getting better. His quickness and speed is back to where it needs to be." Says last night's practice stood out.

This comes from the Louisville scout.com affiliate publisher:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=17&f=2964&t=13040844

--Michael Dyer might end up being the lead back. Not to take anything away from Dominique Brown - who is up to 245 - but Dyer is special and talented and the coaches just keep talking about how he "just keeps improving," per Kolby Smith and also Bobby Petrino.
T-minus three weeks until the monster grown man runs rampant on Miami a team of 18-20 year old boys. Send out those lowball devy offers while you still can. Discount every play you see from Dyer this year.
http://www.raidious.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/42924-haters-gonna-hate-fat-kid-gif-VHex.gif

He already had 1000+ yard seasons at 20 and 21. Your magic formulas might not like what he did at Auburn, but he was physically ready for the league as a freshman. Even if he lights it up this season, painting him as a guy who only thrived because he was older than everybody else isn't accurate when you look at his entire career.

 
Kudos to the people that referenced D'haquille Williams in this thread. The kid seems like a stud. I just had my devy draft and really didn't investigate him much. I focused mainly on watching more highly rated guys. I'm a little disappointed I didn't at least give him a glance before the draft. Hopefully the Auburn offense does keep him under the radar. Any other opinions on him?

 
Kudos to the people that referenced D'haquille Williams in this thread. The kid seems like a stud. I just had my devy draft and really didn't investigate him much. I focused mainly on watching more highly rated guys. I'm a little disappointed I didn't at least give him a glance before the draft. Hopefully the Auburn offense does keep him under the radar. Any other opinions on him?
There are new reports coming out every week raving about Williams, many are about to find out what he's about.

 
Kudos to the people that referenced D'haquille Williams in this thread. The kid seems like a stud. I just had my devy draft and really didn't investigate him much. I focused mainly on watching more highly rated guys. I'm a little disappointed I didn't at least give him a glance before the draft. Hopefully the Auburn offense does keep him under the radar. Any other opinions on him?
There are new reports coming out every week raving about Williams, many are about to find out what he's about.
Picked him up @ 1.10 in a recent devy draft. Only knew of him thanks to a very savvy friend of mine's tip.

Looking forward to seeing his progress.

 
Kudos to the people that referenced D'haquille Williams in this thread. The kid seems like a stud. I just had my devy draft and really didn't investigate him much. I focused mainly on watching more highly rated guys. I'm a little disappointed I didn't at least give him a glance before the draft. Hopefully the Auburn offense does keep him under the radar. Any other opinions on him?
There are new reports coming out every week raving about Williams, many are about to find out what he's about.
Kudos to the people that referenced D'haquille Williams in this thread. The kid seems like a stud. I just had my devy draft and really didn't investigate him much. I focused mainly on watching more highly rated guys. I'm a little disappointed I didn't at least give him a glance before the draft. Hopefully the Auburn offense does keep him under the radar. Any other opinions on him?
There are new reports coming out every week raving about Williams, many are about to find out what he's about.
Picked him up @ 1.10 in a recent devy draft. Only knew of him thanks to a very savvy friend of mine's tip.

Looking forward to seeing his progress.
Thanks guys! That is interesting. I'm surprised there isn't more hype around him. I didn't really see him in anyone's top 10 wr in this thread. And there was really not a ton from the pundits either. Is it just that he is JC kid? It seems like there was more buzz about Patterson a couple years ago. Maybe I am wrong though.

 

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