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Jonas Gray (RB - New England) (1 Viewer)
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This is exactly where I am coming from.
I have Gray, and if I had to (because one of my main RBs was on bye or hurt) start him, I'd hope for a game where the Pats decided to hammer the run, but predicting when they will do that is very hard to do.
I sure as hell am not going to just plug him into my lineup and forget him, with the FF playoffs on the line (and then, hopefully, being in the FF playoffs). The chance for a monster game from my flex spot doesn't outweigh the chance for a complete dud, not at this time of year.
We all know the answer here (or the most likely answer). Indy's weakness is against the run. So ne ran it. Detroits strength is the run. Ne will likely lean on the pass more. That's how ari just beat them.
Neither ne back is a great play this week. But if I had to play one Id play Vereen.
Doesn't mean I don't like gray. He's got tremendous value in that offense. He's got a chance at 40-50 yards rushing and one or 2 gl touches so he has flex appeal if they give him 15 plus carries.
In other weeks vs less dominant run d's I like him a lot better.
Neither ne back is a great play this week. But if I had to play one Id play Vereen.
Doesn't mean I don't like gray. He's got tremendous value in that offense. He's got a chance at 40-50 yards rushing and one or 2 gl touches so he has flex appeal if they give him 15 plus carries.
In other weeks vs less dominant run d's I like him a lot better.
Rogi
Footballguy
Looks like the league has changed his yards to 201 since Sunday.http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/19/jonas-gray-was-so-good-he-gained-yards-two-days-after-game/
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Warpig
Footballguy
This is embarrassing. Is it ironic that Gray rushed 37 times...the same number Fleming reported as eligible? Yet the Colts D couldn't figure out what was going on?!?! Either you cut every defensive player you have and start over with guys that passed 2nd grade, or you cut your D coordinator! Absolutely no excuse for this. And for the head coach to come out and say he knew what they were doing, yet not adjust...is just mind boggling to me. Pathetic! Isn't Pagano supposed to be a defensive minded coach?! LOL!
Obviously the Colts should have adjusted. The fact is that they didn't, and Gray had a huge game (in part) because they didn't adjust. You also have to consider the fact that the Colts aren't very good against the run, and with the confusion caused by Fleming's play, the Pats O-line had an even bigger advantage. The Pats O-line was better than the Colts D-line.
If you believe that the Pats will continue to be able to scheme ways to utilize Gray & their O-line effectively, then you likely believe that he will put up good numbers.
Based on the fact that the Pats tend to run the ball less at the end of the season, that Brady is playing at a higher level right now than he has in recent memory, the fact that the use of Fleming is no longer going to "surprise" opposing D's, and the fact that NE tends to change their gameplan from week to week, I don't expect them to "rely" on Gray, although I would expect him to average 12-15 carries over the rest of the season.
Dondante
Footballguy
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
what's the adjustment?
fleming and gronk bookend the line to essentially create a symmetrical 7 man o-line ---- where are they running, which is the strong side?
now you have a guy pop out and pull, and we've got a fullback out front.
maybe it's easier to talk about it on a messageboard than actually do it.
althepostman
Footballguy
I'm not counting on him for anything, but what's the upside if they continue to give this guy 15 touches and goalline carries? Close to an rb1...no?
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I think we need to put into perspective just how bad of a match-up this is for Gray specifically. DET is allowing 68 yards per game to opposing offenses at 3 yards a clip, both stats being a league best. They've also only allowed 4 rushing TDs on the season, with only NYJ, BAL and KC allowing less.
After looking at these stats, you would probably find it odd that they're giving up the 9th least points in standard (10th least in PPR) to RBs. Rationally, you'd expect them to be top 3 in least points allowed. The catch is that they've allowed the 9th most receptions and 4th most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
The first paragraph in this post is the only stats that applies to Gray as he doesn't catch out of the backfield. This is arguably the worst possible match-up for him and I think his upside is something like 15/40-50/1 as someone pointed out earlier in this thread. This is the week he turns into Steven Jackson.
After looking at these stats, you would probably find it odd that they're giving up the 9th least points in standard (10th least in PPR) to RBs. Rationally, you'd expect them to be top 3 in least points allowed. The catch is that they've allowed the 9th most receptions and 4th most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
The first paragraph in this post is the only stats that applies to Gray as he doesn't catch out of the backfield. This is arguably the worst possible match-up for him and I think his upside is something like 15/40-50/1 as someone pointed out earlier in this thread. This is the week he turns into Steven Jackson.
Not stating that I would play Gray but the Detroit defense argument is slightly flawed. There are a few teams that will make you change your defense when you face - and the Patriots are in that group.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I think this would hold true for most defenses facing off vs. Brady but Detroit doesn't exactly have a true weakness to exploit here. I mean, they've arguably been just as good vs. the pass this year (5th least YPG, 2nd least TDs). Gray seems like the kind of dude who can feast on weak interiors but DET has one of the strongest in the league.
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https://twitter.com/JasonLaCanfora/status/535417242960560128
Blount to sign 2-year deal?
This is definitely going to muddy the waters, one would think.
Is Blount going to be a purely depth signing, is he going to share carries with Gray, or is he going to become the #1 guy?
Blount to sign 2-year deal?
This is definitely going to muddy the waters, one would think.
Is Blount going to be a purely depth signing, is he going to share carries with Gray, or is he going to become the #1 guy?
Boston
Footballguy
I can't believe Blount jumps over Gray after what he did on Sunday...that being said they are similar backs and after what just happened in Pittsburgh I find it hard to believe Blount would go somewhere where he was riding a lot of pine...I think your statement of muddy waters is exactly right...anything could happen here...especially when you see this as a two-year deal which is probably the most surprising thing about this...
If he had not history/connection in NE, I'd agree with you, but he knows the system, BB has dealt with him, so re-signing him makes me think he knows he can "control" him.
One of the arguments made by several posters in this thread about Gray's value was that he was "a lock" to get the lion's share of the 20 "big back" touches in NE. With Blount there, even if he doesn't "jump" Gray, will likely siphon some of those off. It's also not a lock that Gray will get all the GL touches (I didn't think it was a lock before, either; NE tends to do a "hurry up" at the GL, with whichever back is in the game at that point).
No matter what role Blount takes on, this signing isn't good for Gray. I highly doubt the Pats would sign Blount & not give him PT, especially after his lack of PT was the reason he was cut in Pitt. Why would they sign that problem?
Boston
Footballguy
I guess my post was confusing because I agree with you...I just don't see him jumping over Gray on the depth chart but with BB who really knows what that means...
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
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Boston
Footballguy
That is what I am saying...after what happened in Pittsburgh I don't think he would be going to a team to ride pine...so, while I see Gray still being an important part of the team what Blount does as a RB is very similar to Gray so he should effect him...especially when you see a two-year deal and not simply a depth rental deal for the rest of the season...
Warpig
Footballguy
Cheesedawg
Footballguy
People are making too much of the two-year contract IMO. I'm sure the second year is not guaranteed. That serves as an incentive for Blount to earn the second year by being a good citizen and a hard-working player.
Blount sucked for Pittsburgh which is why his PT dried up. While this certainly isn't good news for Gray, it isn't necessarily bad news either. They need RB depth and Blount provides that. Every team in the NFL declined to claim Blount on waivers, so he can't have any expectations of guaranteed playing time with ANY team.
Plus BB may be just proactively handicapping Indy and Denver by stashing Blount.
Blount sucked for Pittsburgh which is why his PT dried up. While this certainly isn't good news for Gray, it isn't necessarily bad news either. They need RB depth and Blount provides that. Every team in the NFL declined to claim Blount on waivers, so he can't have any expectations of guaranteed playing time with ANY team.
Plus BB may be just proactively handicapping Indy and Denver by stashing Blount.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
I dont think this is a bad thing for Gray. They just dont wanna give him 38 carries again lol. If anything this is a bad thing for Vereen. Sure, he will still have his passing down role but he will never get a high volume of carries and if the Pats wanna go ground and pound like last week they now can with TWO backs.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Blount averaged four yards per carry as a 250 lb. back. It tailed off the last couple weeks - including five rushes for 0 yards against the Jets - but he doesn't suck at running the ball. He's just an #######. The final straw was when he was complaining about not getting the ball more when Bell was doing awesome in a close win, and left the field before the game was over in a tantrum. I don't blame the Steelers for dumping him and I don't blame the Patriots for wanting him, because that locker room is solid enough to tell him to shut his mouth. No doubt they'll pump him for information on the Steelers offense while they're at it, since they're fairly likely to meet in the playoffs.
Blount averaged 5.0 YPC last year. Counting the playoffs, he was NE's leading rusher. His contract was up, Ridley's wasn't. The Pats saved money by not signing him, got (IIRC) a compensatory pick by letting him leave.
Signing him again, IMO, is a no-brainer. Let's look at the facts:
1-He is in football shape, unlike other street FAs they could have signed
2-He knows the system/playbook, again unlike other street FAs they could have signed
3-He has proven his ability, both in the NFL, and in NE; Gray has done neither-if his game last week turns out to be a fluke, Blount gives NE a viable alternative
4-By all accounts, there were no problems in NE last year; BB must feel like he won't be a problem
5-by signing him to a minimum contract, they don't have much/any risk
ETA-with regards to this impacting Vereen, he's averaged 9.2 FF points/game in PPR scoring over his career; in the 4 games last year, when Blount was dominating carries (weeks 16-17, 2 playoff games), Vereen averaged 10.1 FF points/game. This was while Ridley was getting a few carries as well. So assuming Gray remains the #1 RB, Blount gets some carries, and Vereen maintains his current role, I don't see any reason to expect him to be much less productive than he's been throughout his career.
In PPR, this signing keeps Vereen as a RB2/flex option, drops Gray from a RB2 to a flex option, and doesn't really (IMO) impact Blount much, unless he is given/claims a bigger role than I would anticipate.
Signing him again, IMO, is a no-brainer. Let's look at the facts:
1-He is in football shape, unlike other street FAs they could have signed
2-He knows the system/playbook, again unlike other street FAs they could have signed
3-He has proven his ability, both in the NFL, and in NE; Gray has done neither-if his game last week turns out to be a fluke, Blount gives NE a viable alternative
4-By all accounts, there were no problems in NE last year; BB must feel like he won't be a problem
5-by signing him to a minimum contract, they don't have much/any risk
ETA-with regards to this impacting Vereen, he's averaged 9.2 FF points/game in PPR scoring over his career; in the 4 games last year, when Blount was dominating carries (weeks 16-17, 2 playoff games), Vereen averaged 10.1 FF points/game. This was while Ridley was getting a few carries as well. So assuming Gray remains the #1 RB, Blount gets some carries, and Vereen maintains his current role, I don't see any reason to expect him to be much less productive than he's been throughout his career.
In PPR, this signing keeps Vereen as a RB2/flex option, drops Gray from a RB2 to a flex option, and doesn't really (IMO) impact Blount much, unless he is given/claims a bigger role than I would anticipate.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
One of the reasons I was high on Gray was the lack of competition for the "big back" role. But if Blount gets, say, 5-6 carries a game Gray probably maxes out at 15 or so. And that's probably his ceiling -- you can't rule out Blount having a bigger role IMO.
Long term I still like Gray way more than his current market value.
The signing also shortens the leash on Gray, too, I think.
Before this signing, if he missed a block, or lost a fumble, NE would have to stick with him, if they wanted to continue to use the power-running game, that isn't Vereen's forte. So, he had a little room to make mistakes. Now, if he drops a ball, or misses a block, NE has a viable alternative in Blount which would allow them to continue to utilize power-runs.
Also, NE has an alternative if Gray falters. If they start Gray he isn't getting it done in a particular game, but Blount is having success with his handful of carries, they can easily focus on Blount. That option wasn't there before. It's not like Gray has a lot of "credit" built up. He has 1 great game to his name. Blount had 3 great games for NE just last season.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Here we ago again, I remember people in the Bell thread thinking this guy would have an impact oh him. Yeah, they were wrong. Those same people thinking he will have an impact in NE is wrong too. How many teams were going to sign Blount? One, a team that he knew the system and needs depth. He is not good and he is a head case. Provides very little value to any NFL team.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I think it's just the opposite -- that's a team friendly term.
if he does well they have his rights for next year, too.
I doubt it's a lot of money.
Blount-4.6 career YPC over 5 seasons (4.1 this year, 5.0 last year with NE), 2 seasons with over 5.0 YPC
Gray-4.7 career YPC over 4 games
If Blount is not good, then you must believe Gray is not good, because they appear to be very similar RBs, except that Blount's talent has been established over 5 years, and Gray's has been established over 4 games.
Plus, Blount did have an impact on Bell, until this last game. Before Monday, Bell had 68% of Pitt's carries. In his rookie year, he had 79% of the RB carries. Losing 11% of the RB carries is going to impact your FF numbers.
Warpig
Footballguy
We all know how this is going. The Gray owners are chirping at how Blount is not a threat and he sucks. And those of us that don't own either player can be more realistic. Blount is a hammer. He did well for NE last year. For those of you that played football...have you ever been hit hard when it's cold out? It hurts like a mother******! Not to mention the snot bubbles. Just something about getting hit when it is cold that makes it hurt more than when it is warm out.
If it wasn't Blount, it would have been someone else eating in to Grays touches. It's the Belicheck MO. Once you grasp this, life will get much easier for you when it comes to what you expect from a NE RB.
If it wasn't Blount, it would have been someone else eating in to Grays touches. It's the Belicheck MO. Once you grasp this, life will get much easier for you when it comes to what you expect from a NE RB.
forbidden doughnut
Footballguy
They're both going to get used just like Ridley and Blount got used last year (even though Ridley got put in time out for fumbling). It isn't going to be one or the other.
az_prof
Footballguy
The fact that no one else even put in a waiver claim tells you all you need to know. He is worth a cheap contract for NE because he knows the system and can provide depth. Plus, his information on Pittsburgh will be mined. This will have marginal impact.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Gray just ran for 201 and 4 scores? Blount just got cut after not getting a carry. But because a team signed him people think he is the next best thing? I will disagree because he still is a guy who just got cut because he has issues, signing with a new team does not mean he has any less issues. If he was worth the hassle he wouldnt be passed around like (insert joke here).
Darryl Talley
Footballguy
This sucks. I hate the Steelers.
From what I can see, it's for the veteran minimum. By signing him for 2 years, it seems they are giving themselves a cheap RB option for next year. I'm not sure how practice squad players work, but assuming they have Gray under contract for next year, they should have AT LEAST 1 cheap "power" RB next year.
ETA- it seems the contract is for the minimum this year, but could hit 1.6M next year if he hits incentives. IMO, although 1.6M isn't a lot of money, this makes it less likely that Blount will be a Patriot next year (at least, not if he hits those incentives).
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Are you even reading the posts in this thread? I havent' seen anyone call Blount the next big thing. I, myself, am saying he will get a few carries, thus negating some of Gray's perceived volume value. I also believe that it's possible that in certain games (where Gray starts), if Blount does well with his carries & Gray doesn't do well with his, NE could use Blount more.
In any event, part of the reason many perceived Gray as being valuable was because he was the only "big back" option in NE. That's not the case anymore.
You can ignore the fact that Blount was great for NE last year if you want, you can ignore the fact that Gray has had one great game, if you want, but that doesn't change those facts.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
that's unfair to blount
if he was such a problem child with the pats, or had such a bad attitude, he wouldn't have been brought back in to the team.
I'm pretty sure he left the pats due to a numbers thing --- they had ridley, vereen, bolden under contract with gray in the wings, and they were a little tight against the cap earlier in the year.
I doubt they wanted to offer him much at his position, and he probably saw a better opportunity in pitt.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I don't know what you mean, and he could be cut, but it's not a signing for 1 game.
it is exactly what it looks like, and you have to understand they might lose both ridley and vereen next year, so everything they do is fwd looking.
az_prof
Footballguy
I don't think they are quite the same guy. Gray is faster for one--4.47 speed versus 4.7. Blount is 250 pounds and Gray is 225. both are strong, but Gray is uniquely strong for a guy his size--31 reps of 225 pounds at combine versus 18 for Blount. They both run North-South but I think Gray has a bit more agility.
What's with the face?
Including the playoffs, he led the team in rushes last year, he led the team in rushing yards last year, he led the team in rushing TDs last year, and he almost single-handedly gave them their only playoff win last year. I'd say that constitutes being "great for NE" last year.
According to this, Gray ran a 4.58 and benched 20 reps.
As far as Gray having more agility, it's possible, but it hasn't been displayed, not that have seen. He's only had 70 NFL carries, though, so who knows.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Gray was on a bad knee and only did the bench at the combine (20 reps). I'd take 31 a few weeks later with a big grain of salt.
Regardless of what Blount's role ends up being (local media are saying he's strictly a backup at this point), Gray's a hammer and Blount, despite his size, is not.
Blount's a good runner, but he uses his (outstanding) vision like a small back -- and stays patient until a hole opens. That's why he's always been miscast as a short-yardage back. He runs like a smaller guy.
OTOH, Gray seems to take the ball and blasts into the hole whether it's there or not. Totally different styles IMO.
Regardless of what Blount's role ends up being (local media are saying he's strictly a backup at this point), Gray's a hammer and Blount, despite his size, is not.
Blount's a good runner, but he uses his (outstanding) vision like a small back -- and stays patient until a hole opens. That's why he's always been miscast as a short-yardage back. He runs like a smaller guy.
OTOH, Gray seems to take the ball and blasts into the hole whether it's there or not. Totally different styles IMO.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
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