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Rams acquire #1 pick, Massive haul for Titans (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Minnesota has been to the playoffs 4 times in ADP's career and he absolutely is the main reason why they were in the playoffs all 4 times. There were other key people (like Favre), but ADP was the main cog in Minny those 4 playoff appearances. If you think ADP had zero impact on taking Christian Ponder to the playoffs, you aren't nearly as smart as you think you are. ADP carried that OK team to the playoffs on his back.
San Diego made 5 playoff appearances in LT's career and you can feel free to try and state your point, but I think it is ludicrous to say that LT had zero impact on those teams. Have you noticed that Rivers made the playoffs 1 time in the 6 years since LT left San Diego?
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I'm curious, what was your take on RB Trent Richardson BEFORE that draft?
What do you think about picking RB Trent Richardson now?
I was against picking a RB in the top-4 before that draft. I was critical of the pick on the day it happened and I was attacked by T-Rich supporters.
I was 100% behind the selection of Joe Thomas before and after the pick was made.
I have no idea who the Browns want or what they do with the pick but I don't rule out Tunsil.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am not seeing a QB like a Luck or Newton where you are pretty darn confident that they will be a high echelon NFL QB for a long time either. You just bet the house Rams and I am not sure it was wise to do so.
For the Titans.... hell yea, you do that deal!
FUBAR
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The Redskins have won the division twice since the trade (admittedly the second one was not because of that trade). Rams have zero playoff appearances.
Hooper31
Footballguy
In my opinion anyone that thinks that the Titans gave up a lot needs some perspective.
Just take a few minutes to go to drafthistory.com and choose ANY team. Go back over their past years and get a feel for what a complete draft looks like four or five years after the fact. The reality is that the vast majority of picks don't pan out. The rarity of finding anyone that becomes a star outside of the first round is mind boggling compared to the emotional rhetoric. Those feelings are just that, they aren't based in objective reality. In my opinion draft capital doesn't have near the value that people perceive that it does.
With this thought in mind, I don't understand why John Schneider hasn't won any major awards. His three year crushing of the draft from 2010 to 2012 is like nothing I can compare to from any other team. For those that don't know he drafted 16 different players in that three year span that were solid NFL starters (and all of them got decent second contracts after their rookie contracts ended). Compounding this phenomenal run, he's also found a handful of undrafted free agents that have turned into contributors on a top of the line NFL roster (Baldwin, Kearse, Rawls). Seriously, why does Schneider not get the credit?
Just take a few minutes to go to drafthistory.com and choose ANY team. Go back over their past years and get a feel for what a complete draft looks like four or five years after the fact. The reality is that the vast majority of picks don't pan out. The rarity of finding anyone that becomes a star outside of the first round is mind boggling compared to the emotional rhetoric. Those feelings are just that, they aren't based in objective reality. In my opinion draft capital doesn't have near the value that people perceive that it does.
With this thought in mind, I don't understand why John Schneider hasn't won any major awards. His three year crushing of the draft from 2010 to 2012 is like nothing I can compare to from any other team. For those that don't know he drafted 16 different players in that three year span that were solid NFL starters (and all of them got decent second contracts after their rookie contracts ended). Compounding this phenomenal run, he's also found a handful of undrafted free agents that have turned into contributors on a top of the line NFL roster (Baldwin, Kearse, Rawls). Seriously, why does Schneider not get the credit?
pantherclub
Footballguy
Even if there is a luck or Newton in this draft that still would not warrant to give up all of those picks IMO. That is a hell of a lot to give up and you have to make it up through insanely good drafting and I just dont see it. In theory that is a ton of starters to give up for one player.
I didn't really like TRich ever. Check out his thousand page thread, I am all over it. I really disliked him after his rookie year in FF which was all about volume and being a bad RB. Honestly, I never looked at Joe Thomas at all, not clue. I also thought Russell was a horrible pick, but I think everyone and their mothers thought that.
You realize no one is bashing the Thomas pick, right? We just think that your thought that they could get a 1st rounder for him and his $10M contract are wrong. I still do think in hindsight that the Browns would have been better with Peterson. Peterson and LT as much as you devalued them have 10 playoff appearance to Thomas' 0. I'd much rather have had both of them and an average LT over Thomas.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
MattFancy
Footballguy
The Redskins have 2 division titles since the trade. The Rams haven't finished over .500
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yea, I am not a fan of moving up to get players. I rather move back and collect picks and players. I think it is very rare that a team needs to pull of something like this and it ought to be for a once every 10 year type of talent that really completes your team for a SB.
How many of these types of trades work out for the buyer? How many end up being a godsend for the seller?
massraider
Footballguy
It is very, very difficult to see this being a win for the Rams in the near future.
Why? Look at the 2012 Vikings, which rode ADP into the playoffs. They had Christian Ponder at QB, Harvin at WR with a team high 677 yards, Kyle Rudolph, Michael Jenkins and Jarius Wright as their offense. Their defense was the 14th ranked scoring defense, i.e. not the 2015 Broncos.
Cleveland has had solid O-lines, terrible QBs and decent enough Ds (by the way the 2012 browns gave up only 20 more points than the 2012 Vikings).
Sorry, but I 100% stand by my statement that Adrian Peterson would have been way better for Cleveland's playoff chances.
Also, Bracie, feel free to point out 1 single player on the 2012 Vikings that took them to the playoffs and how ADP had zero impact.
CalBear
Footballguy
The pick of Newton was roundly derided at the time as a reach for a sure bust.
Luck has four years under his belt and he's clearly not a high-echelon NFL QB so far.
Life is strange.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I'd rather have a HOF OLT any day of the week and twice on Sunday over a RB
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I think Luck is a top echelon QB but the surrounding players around him have not done him any favors.
Newton was not a sure fire- this guy will be a great QB but enough people believed it so (not usually going to get everyone in the same page when it comes to who will be or not be NFL stars in the draft)
Amazing IMHO that anyone could ever say these guys had zero impact on their teams chances to make the playoffs. Sure, some teams have devalued RBs and it has worked, but let's not say something silly about HOF RBs not having huge impacts on their teams. ADP was the 2012 Vikings team that made the playoffs. That team was mediocre (D) to bad (QB/WRs) other than him.
pantherclub
Footballguy
That really wasnt my point. I was trying to see that since RG3 is/was a total bust that all those picks are pretty much unrecoverable. But I get what you are saying.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
MattFancy
Footballguy
You said the Skins still hadn't recovered from the trade. I don't think you can say that haven't recovered from it when they have more playoff appearances than the Rams.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You should want a QB far more than Tunsil. No line is going to matter if they are trotting out Case Keenum.
Hooper31
Footballguy
Let's play a game based in historical averages. Fill in the pick numbers with names of guys taken from old drafts. Which group of players would you pick?
Based on the 2012 draft The Titans select:
1st round — No. 15 overall DE Bruce Irvin
2nd round — No. 33 WR Brian Quick
2nd round — No. 43 (from Rams) WR Stephen Hill
2nd round — No. 45 (from Rams) WR Alshon Jeffrey
3rd round — No. 64 DB Trumaine Johnson
3rd round — No. 76 (from Rams) G Brandon Brooks
5th round — No. 140 LB Najee Goode
6th round — No. 193 (from Falcons) T Tom Compton
7th round — No. 222 LB Caleb McSurdy
Based on the 2012 draft The Rams select:
1st round — No. 1 overall (from Titans) QB Andrew Luck
4th round — No. 110 TE Ladarius Green
4th round — No. 113 LB Kyle Wilbur
6th round — No. 177 (from Titans) DB Justin Bethel
6th round — No. 190 DB Markelle Martin
Pick another year and do the same thing. I'll even compile it for you. What year do you want to see (assuming its at least from three years ago or older)?
Based on the 2012 draft The Titans select:
1st round — No. 15 overall DE Bruce Irvin
2nd round — No. 33 WR Brian Quick
2nd round — No. 43 (from Rams) WR Stephen Hill
2nd round — No. 45 (from Rams) WR Alshon Jeffrey
3rd round — No. 64 DB Trumaine Johnson
3rd round — No. 76 (from Rams) G Brandon Brooks
5th round — No. 140 LB Najee Goode
6th round — No. 193 (from Falcons) T Tom Compton
7th round — No. 222 LB Caleb McSurdy
Based on the 2012 draft The Rams select:
1st round — No. 1 overall (from Titans) QB Andrew Luck
4th round — No. 110 TE Ladarius Green
4th round — No. 113 LB Kyle Wilbur
6th round — No. 177 (from Titans) DB Justin Bethel
6th round — No. 190 DB Markelle Martin
Pick another year and do the same thing. I'll even compile it for you. What year do you want to see (assuming its at least from three years ago or older)?
pantherclub
Footballguy
True, probably faulty wording on my part. I was just trying to say that you would think the Rams would be smarter than that seeing how the trade they did the Skins guy flamed out hard. Granted Cousins looks the part now.
If the goal is to not sniff the playoffs, he's all for it. Give me rookie LT or Peterson all day over Joe Thomas and I'd bet money that I'd make it to the playoffs first and I've got all the history backing mme up.
massraider
Footballguy
Amazing position for the Titans to be in. Have their young QB in place, and a ton of picks this year and next.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Now that may be more accurate. RG3 certainly flamed out and flamed out quickly. But I don't think that should be why the Rams or any other team wouldn't make a trade. I don't agree with it from the Rams perspective, but if they really like Wentz or Goff, then you gotta go get your guy.
dkp993
Footballguy
Who wouldn't want a HOF player vs a RB. Now HOF LT vs HOF RB is a very different discussion
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Sure. 2nd and 3rd round picks are a total crapshoot. People are assuming this trade will turn into "3-5 starters" for Tennessee when in actuality those 4 non-1st round picks will likely be one starter, if they're lucky. It's more nuanced and situation dependent than strictly value. For example if the Titans weren't high on anyone near the top of this draft, if they are set on someone who will likely be available at 15, if they assume LA will be terrible next season. Not to mention the fact that the Titans have many holes in their roster so taking one stud defensive back or linebacker or tackle wouldn't move the needle much for them. It's complicated obviously
This quote from Paul Kuharsky supports the lack of value from the Titans:
Soulfly3
Footballguy
I'd take Wentz... I wouldnt be thrilled about it... But Goff all day, every day for me.
Won't change my mind if the Browns draft Wentz. I just dont think he is nearly as good as Goff
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Lmfao at the chart. Thats like dyno guys pointing to the jeffp trade calculator
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
From a FFB perspective, there's not many worse places for the top QB to go.
I agree a very good QB can help Gurley. But even if Wentz/Goff are really good, they along with Gurley will struggle behind that 28th ranked line. It's a catch 22 at this point, and I really don't think they did themselves any favors unless they see future Pro Bowl potential in one of those QB's.
I personally think they would have been better served trading up a few spots for Ronnie Stanley then drafting Cook in round 2. But an NFL GM I am not.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
In a league where teams are passing more, and more and more and more, how exactly are LT losing value?
FUBAR
Footballguy
2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002...
For the Rams to "win" this trade, their pick has to be a franchise QB. For the Titans to "win" the trade their pack of picks has to yield a few contributors and one or two impact guys.
Hooper31
Footballguy
They aren't getting paid as much as their expected value based on recent LT signing over the past two years compared to the previous five years? Just a guess.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Catbird
Footballguy
The Rams were in purgatory. A very good defense, decent offensive line, topnotch RB, but no QB. That would bring them to .500 every year, or maybe a 9-7 or even 10-6 once in a while, but you can't be a top quality franchise without a quality NFL QB. Middle range records would also leave them picking 15th or 18th every year and in no place to ever get a young QB unless they got lucky throwing darts at the 3rd, 4th and 5th QBs in a class. Same dilemma faced by the Texans. Too good to ever get a high draft choice with a playoff quality teams in all other respects being wasted year by year. Two ways out. Get lucky and find a possible quality QB in free agency for 17 Mil/yr (Oz) or give up a draft pick ransom for a top of the draft QB. If Wentz doesn't pan out - I think it has to be Wentz for Fisher - they have gained nothing and it turns out to be a coach and GM career ending mistake. If Osweiler fails, that was a huge mistake for the Texans. The thing is, both teams know there is no other way to success as a franchise than with a good QB, and without the wild luck of hitting on a later round QB draft pick, neither had an alternative to make use of the good teams they had built. Expensive as hell, but I see it as a well considered risk.
Not sure I agree with one or two impact guys. They need an perennial pro-bowler to win the trade because they should be able to get that with the #1. Agreed on the Rams, they have to get their franchise QB or it is a total loss. Titans have spread their risk a lot more, they (if they draft well) should be able to pull 2-3 solid players. I don't know enough about how good their GM is. I know I'd love to see what Dave Gettleman would do with that array of picks.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How could this be true? How could they trade so much if they didn't LOVE one of the QBs?
lod01
Footballguy
The next step is firing Fisher and the OC.Don't worry guys. Jeff Fisher will coach this guy up.
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