Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Received. Thanks GB. Did everyone else get the nude self-portrait or was that just for me?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Due to the potential of lucrative payouts there’s nothing wrong with this bet. As EG said you probably need Hoff on top for it to pay big but you never know if you get some unexpected horses in 2-3
if your comfortable losing that amount then let it fly...nothing worse than trying to save $20 by taking out a couple horses and missing on them
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Happened to me last year. I pulled one horse out of my box and it cost me a bunch of dough.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Wasn’t derby but I missed a 5K tri on some random Friday or Saturday at Santa Anita a few years back. Loved a 10-1 on top (birdsong maybe...some bird horse) and decided to save a few bucks by not hitting ALL in 3rd and a 99-1 came in (I had like all but 2 horses covered). Still hit exacta and win bet but that one hurtEvilgrin 72 said:
have also missed some big pick 4 wins by saving $10-$20. I know it adds up if you play frequently but so frustrating having the horse pegged and then crossing him off
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Among all my exotic tickets in 2009 I had a pioneer of the nile/all exacta.
Had him keyed all over the place
Didn't win a dime.
Had I boxed him with all for another lousy 18 dollars I'd have won about a grand iirc
Had him keyed all over the place
Didn't win a dime.
Had I boxed him with all for another lousy 18 dollars I'd have won about a grand iirc
otb_lifer
Footballguy
reading these tales of shaving coin on spreads, reminds me of a few of my errors as well in not laying out - "penny wise, dollar foolish" :(
i have a set amount aside for the Derby ... i budget myself accordingly, knowing that this race is the only one of the year where a five figure tri/super payout is within reach even with the favorite on top! and, hell, if all the the shorter priced horses flop altogether you're talking life changing returns. it's not easy to construct, and an awful lot has to go right (or wrong, depending on your bets) for the bang to come to fruition, but ... that carrot is dangled here - and only here. these pools are astronomical. every two bit jamoke, Aunt Tilly, Cousin Vito, Uncle Leroy ... all diving in. so swing for it. dust the cobwebs off the wallet - take the shot.
will we ever see the Giacomo '05/Mine That Bird '09 kinda lottery payouts again, now that the points system has honed the fields into pretty legit route runners (no cheap sprinters)? sure. it's bound to happen. these are still three year olds being asked to do things they never have before ... though the favorites have been cashing at a very high clip since points instituted.
but we just need look back to last year, where favorite Always Dreaming took care of biz ... he went off at 9/2, was followed home by 33/1 Lookin' At Lee followed by 40/1 Battle of Midway and 5/1 Classic Empire.
the $2 Exacta, with AD on top - $336
the $2 Trifecta, again, fave on top - $16,600
the $2 Superfecta (featuring fave on top, and second choice Classic Empire in fourth) $76,000
look at that super, with first and second choice book ending
that's an absurd number for having those two horses in the config, and the prime example of how this race can deliver bat#### payouts even with chalk in the mix.
yeah, but ya gotta find those Lookin' At Lees and those Battle of Midways, right? ok ... then spread more. take a punch at the pool. of course, you can chop down to .50 cents on the trifecta, and a cool buck on the exacta/super to economize and get more coverage:
Wage Calculator to assist.
now, there are some extremely potent cats up in this 2018 field, capable of turning this edition into an '07 Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun payout dud. very possible - but they all have legit questions surrounding them, that's for damn sure .... regardless, i'm playing for the score - #### it. will have my savers, but will pepper my spread with plenty of bombs .... i'd rather have 'em and not need 'em, than need 'em and not have 'em (thank you, Clarence Worley).
watch the replays, check the PPs, trust your hunches - study up - still some 36 hrs. away as of this posting ... go get ya some
i have a set amount aside for the Derby ... i budget myself accordingly, knowing that this race is the only one of the year where a five figure tri/super payout is within reach even with the favorite on top! and, hell, if all the the shorter priced horses flop altogether you're talking life changing returns. it's not easy to construct, and an awful lot has to go right (or wrong, depending on your bets) for the bang to come to fruition, but ... that carrot is dangled here - and only here. these pools are astronomical. every two bit jamoke, Aunt Tilly, Cousin Vito, Uncle Leroy ... all diving in. so swing for it. dust the cobwebs off the wallet - take the shot.
will we ever see the Giacomo '05/Mine That Bird '09 kinda lottery payouts again, now that the points system has honed the fields into pretty legit route runners (no cheap sprinters)? sure. it's bound to happen. these are still three year olds being asked to do things they never have before ... though the favorites have been cashing at a very high clip since points instituted.
but we just need look back to last year, where favorite Always Dreaming took care of biz ... he went off at 9/2, was followed home by 33/1 Lookin' At Lee followed by 40/1 Battle of Midway and 5/1 Classic Empire.
the $2 Exacta, with AD on top - $336
the $2 Trifecta, again, fave on top - $16,600
the $2 Superfecta (featuring fave on top, and second choice Classic Empire in fourth) $76,000
look at that super, with first and second choice book ending
that's an absurd number for having those two horses in the config, and the prime example of how this race can deliver bat#### payouts even with chalk in the mix.yeah, but ya gotta find those Lookin' At Lees and those Battle of Midways, right? ok ... then spread more. take a punch at the pool. of course, you can chop down to .50 cents on the trifecta, and a cool buck on the exacta/super to economize and get more coverage:
Wage Calculator to assist.
now, there are some extremely potent cats up in this 2018 field, capable of turning this edition into an '07 Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun payout dud. very possible - but they all have legit questions surrounding them, that's for damn sure .... regardless, i'm playing for the score - #### it. will have my savers, but will pepper my spread with plenty of bombs .... i'd rather have 'em and not need 'em, than need 'em and not have 'em (thank you, Clarence Worley).
watch the replays, check the PPs, trust your hunches - study up - still some 36 hrs. away as of this posting ... go get ya some
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I learned my lesson last year. This year, if I take stands against certain horses, it will be based on performance / value rather than trying to trim the outlay.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
I read the KD thread every year and never comment. But damn, this post just got me so jazzed up for tomorrow!reading these tales of shaving coin on spreads, reminds me of a few of my errors as well in not laying out - "penny wise, dollar foolish" :(
i have a set amount aside for the Derby ... i budget myself accordingly, knowing that this race is the only one of the year where a five figure tri/super payout is within reach even with the favorite on top! and, hell, if all the the shorter priced horses flop altogether you're talking life changing returns. it's not easy to construct, and an awful lot has to go right (or wrong, depending on your bets) for the bang to come to fruition, but ... that carrot is dangled here - and only here. these pools are astronomical. every two bit jamoke, Aunt Tilly, Cousin Vito, Uncle Leroy ... all diving in. so swing for it. dust the cobwebs off the wallet - take the shot.
will we ever see the Giacomo '05/Mine That Bird '09 kinda lottery payouts again, now that the points system has honed the fields into pretty legit route runners (no cheap sprinters)? sure. it's bound to happen. these are still three year olds being asked to do things they never have before ... though the favorites have been cashing at a very high clip since points instituted.
but we just need look back to last year, where favorite Always Dreaming took care of biz ... he went off at 9/2, was followed home by 33/1 Lookin' At Lee followed by 40/1 Battle of Midway and 5/1 Classic Empire.
the $2 Exacta, with AD on top - $336
the $2 Trifecta, again, fave on top - $16,600
the $2 Superfecta (featuring fave on top, and second choice Classic Empire in fourth) $76,000
look at that super, with first and second choice book ending
yeah, but ya gotta find those Lookin' At Lees and those Battle of Midways, right? ok ... then spread more. take a punch at the pool. of course, you can chop down to .50 cents on the trifecta, and a cool buck on the exacta/super to economize and get more coverage:
Wage Calculator to assist.
now, there are some extremely potent cats up in this 2018 field, capable of turning this edition into an '07 Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun payout dud. very possible - but they all have legit questions surrounding them, that's for damn sure .... regardless, i'm playing for the score - #### it. will have my savers, but will pepper my spread with plenty of bombs .... i'd rather have 'em and not need 'em, than need 'em and not have 'em (thank you, Clarence Worley).
watch the replays, check the PPs, trust your hunches - study up - still some 36 hrs. away as of this posting ... go get ya some
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Btw @otb_lifer, I'm heading over to my local track to put in bets tomorrow morning. Not a novice gambler but not a pro by any means. If I was going to place a bet using your method of finding a key and then surrounding it with a bunch of others, how would that bet format go? I assume it would be too confusing doing it at the machines, so at the window how would I structure it? Let's use a hypothetical of a $1 trifecta bet including Audible in all combos, and then maybe 8-10 other options to fill in the other two spots. I guess technically I'm boxing all trifecta options, but since I'm always using Audible it prevents me from spending like $1000 yes?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
using one key horse, with eight others ($1 "tri key box") $168 with nine others $216 with ten others $270 - now that gives total coverage in all three spots for each bet.
just let 'em know at the window, make sure they hear "KEY box" - i had a teller not hear me correctly once and she asked for about 2k on a bet i had figured to roughly $250
(she just 'boxed')which track you hitting?
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Awesome thanks man! Meadowlands in NJ is about 15 min from my houseusing one key horse, with eight others ($1 "tri key box") $168 with nine others $216 with ten others $270 - now that gives total coverage in all three spots for each bet.
just let 'em know at the window, make sure they hear "KEY box" - i had a teller not hear me correctly once and she asked for about 2k on a bet i had figured to roughly $250
which track you hitting?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
that's where i always make my annual wager, and where the teller mishap went down
, been my "good luck charm" since hitting the Barbaro/BlueGrass Cat/Steppenwolfer tri in '06they get jammed up, though ... i usually hit it around 5, waiting 'til last minute to punch in ... friggin' rt. 120 is usually a parking lot
wish you best of luck, will be posting my layout tomorrow morn, still hangin' on Audible "key", though Bolty is beckoning ...
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Nice! And same to you man - I'm heading over earlier, probably around 130 or so. Gotta go early because we're having a derby party at our place with about 30 degenerate gamblers coming over, otherwise I'd say we could meet up for a drink and I could pick your brain hahathat's where i always make my annual wager, and where the teller mishap went down
they get jammed up, though ... i usually hit it around 5, waiting 'til last minute to punch in ... friggin' rt. 120 is usually a parking lot
wish you best of luck, will be posting my layout tomorrow morn, still hangin' on Audible "key", though Bolty is beckoning ...
shadrap
Footballguy
Few years ago I won 17 g's plus in the derby(had $160 invested). Had California Chrome in everything & did some exacta, etc. which I know nothing about. I am so insanely naïve that I didn't know I won until they updated my account.
Like lifter said there is a chance to make 5 figures with not much on the line.
Like lifter said there is a chance to make 5 figures with not much on the line.
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
can someone briefly explain:
Trifecta - pick top 3 finishers in order
Exacta - top 2 in order
Superfecta. - top 4 in order
also the "box" them - bet all combinations of that # of horses. So exacta box would be 2 combos (1-2, 2-1). So a $1 exacta box bet would cost you $2. Trifecta box 6 combos (1-2-3, 1-3-2, 2-1-3, etc..). $1 trifecta box bet would cost you $6.
Trifecta - pick top 3 finishers in order
Exacta - top 2 in order
Superfecta. - top 4 in order
also the "box" them - bet all combinations of that # of horses. So exacta box would be 2 combos (1-2, 2-1). So a $1 exacta box bet would cost you $2. Trifecta box 6 combos (1-2-3, 1-3-2, 2-1-3, etc..). $1 trifecta box bet would cost you $6.
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm not otb, but you can do this at the machines pretty easily also. basically it is 3 different trifecta bets. let's assume you like horses 13-20 to go with audible (the 5 horse).
1) 5 with 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
2) 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 5 with 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
3) 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 with 5
JShare87
Footballguy
Yep, just pick the correct track (Churchill), correct race (12), then select one dollar for wager amount, trifecta for bet type, then key it in as listed above. It would be 3 separate bets, but it works the same way.
Gawain
Footballguy
Fun article. Add another what if to GPJ's thread (guy who cracked Canadian lottery and told, guys who got greedy exploiting video poker, and the guy who didn't cash a $16MM ticket)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yeah, this will also do the trick
or you could save yourself a couple/few/five minutes by just saying to the teller: "$1 trifecta key box, 5 with 2,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,18,20"
(not that the above is my final ticket, but ... )
ETA: ALWAYS CHECK TIX BEFORE LEAVING TELLER/MACHINE/FACILITY.
(this PSA bought to you by a bettor who missed '06 superfecta bonanza by punching in #12 SweetNorthernSaint instead of #13 Blue Grass Cat)
:(
Last edited by a moderator:
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Live Oaks odds for those betting it today:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/oaks-live-odds
I assume the KD tab will eventually show live Derby odds too, right now it's stuck on zero money bet.
Like the #14 despite the post, it seems like most of the good ones are loading up in outside posts.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/oaks-live-odds
I assume the KD tab will eventually show live Derby odds too, right now it's stuck on zero money bet.
Like the #14 despite the post, it seems like most of the good ones are loading up in outside posts.
Last edited by a moderator:
otb_lifer
Footballguy
did they deaden the rail again? also heard might be a tad damp for the lads later on ...
i'm looking at #5 Wonder Gadot and #10 Midnight Bisou for my Oaks/Derby double ... Justy/Aud/Vino/Bolty coming back
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Quint
Footballguy
what the actual hell?!Desoumeaux Bros. emptied the bank accounts, MBJ currently 5/1
MBJ was rounding out my four-horse TBX.
feck.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
with 5-7 over 20-1, y'all be wasting a lot of dough on your multiways
General Malaise
Footballguy
I wouldn't worry too much about the early action. My hunch is that this will drop with more money coming in on the other favorites.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
verrrrrrry early, of course - someone dropped 25k once wagering began - but i wouldn't expect him to be anywhere near his opening ml come post time.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i suspect the punters will wait to make sure he's not a scratch - if he's live, i would expect heaviest action after 1o'clock Kentucky time tomorrow ... they gotta be all done with Tea first, dont'cha kno ??
General Malaise
Footballguy
I fell in love with Mendy upon first sight and I just can't let the image go of that stallion crossing the wire in the desert 18 lengths ahead of the rest, coasting. It's a great field, but in a battle between the Apollo Curse and the UAE Jinx, I'll wager on the latter falling before the former. Will box Mendy up with Audible, D'Oro (loved his dad) and Vino Rosso closing.
$20 W/P on #14
$2 Exacta Box 5,11,14,18
$1 Tri Box 5,11,14,18
Live longshots I'll use somehow: Enticed at juicy odds, Hofburg and Vino Rosso again if he is still around 20-1.
$20 W/P on #14
$2 Exacta Box 5,11,14,18
$1 Tri Box 5,11,14,18
Live longshots I'll use somehow: Enticed at juicy odds, Hofburg and Vino Rosso again if he is still around 20-1.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
first confirmed fade of Justy, now we're cookin'
- Mendy is an incredible specimen - and that UAE curse is a very recent phenomenon, as opposed to Apollo, which stretches back some 136 years.
one last thing on Mendy - even though he has already shipped and won over here for O'Brien, it was turf ... O'Brien is 1-51 when shipping stateside for dirt stakes - but he never had a goer like this beast ... hope he gets a clean run at the coin.
wish you all the best of luck, GM!
Last edited by a moderator:
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
If Mendy had drawn Justy's post & vice versa, i'd be right there with you. He could control this race if he got the rail. But he aint gonna get it. I dont see the big horses being 1-2 here. The battle royale will hopefully be ahead of us in the Preakness/Belmont. THAT's the race i really wanna see - a small-field hookup. I got either the Red or the Chocolate falling out slightly if they dont get their trip and ol pushbutton Audible scarfing up the bottom of the exacta. Justify by 4, Audible by 4 more, Catholic Boy doing a Rosie Ruiz to take the shodo scramble.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
she would've never made it outta Jamaica Ave. station if she tried that #### up over here ... and neither will CB if they don't get him straight (bled the #### out at Gulfstream).
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
And anyone interested taking the field str8up against the Big 3, holla
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
All the experts I've read/listened to (primarily from links OTB posted) do not give a whit about the curse of Apollo.
Is it really a curse? I'd say there has to be some reason why no horse entered without racing as a 2-year old has won in 136 years. How many Derby entrants since then have fit the profile? 500? 1,000? That's way too big a sample size to brush this off as statistically insignificant. Calling it a "curse" imbues a feeling of the supernatural. This isn't Babe Ruth and the Billy Goat here, guys. This is hundreds, if not thousands, of horses that have failed to win. There HAS to be a reason - if that reason is as simple as a lack of fundamental race experience, then it's more important than people seem to be acknowledging.
Is it really a curse? I'd say there has to be some reason why no horse entered without racing as a 2-year old has won in 136 years. How many Derby entrants since then have fit the profile? 500? 1,000? That's way too big a sample size to brush this off as statistically insignificant. Calling it a "curse" imbues a feeling of the supernatural. This isn't Babe Ruth and the Billy Goat here, guys. This is hundreds, if not thousands, of horses that have failed to win. There HAS to be a reason - if that reason is as simple as a lack of fundamental race experience, then it's more important than people seem to be acknowledging.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
sry, ol pal - inside joke. Rosie Ruiz won the Boston Marathon by taxicab and Otb & my original out-of-the-clouds horse, Catholic Boy, would have to do the same to be in the Derby.
facook
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
facook
Footballguy
I AM a moron. I get it now.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
believe it's actually 0-61
Toddfather was 0-41 prior to Super Saver, iirc
we also had the BC Juvey curse 'til Street Sense in '07 (over Apollo Cursed Curlin)
Last edited by a moderator:
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Classically, top horses who dont run as 2yos do so because of size and big horses seldom have the speed that Justy does. One needs race experience to negotiate large fields and i'd be throwing Justy out just as i have Mendy if his draw kept him from getting his race on that basis. It sets up perfectly for Justy to get out - horses inside him not wanting the lead, the rabbit right on his hip. So 'curse' be damned.
ETA: the only things to fear w Justify are a bad break & Mikey Smith's tendency to chase rabbits too soon, the latter somewhat lessened by Justy's class (top racehorses know when to do what they do, like a baller to the hole)
Last edited by a moderator:
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Only 61 in 138 years? OK, much smaller sample than I thought, but still. I feel like the root cause of something like that is more likely based in reality rather than anomaly, unlike a certain trainer not having the right horses (or adjusting his style of training later in his career) or one specific past race not seeing a repeat winner in a later race, which would seem to have no functional basis for happening.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
and Justy can be a ##### about breaking cleanly ... has had some gate issues, but Aud/GM/LS/Hof/MBJ - all the flesh around him - none are gonna be sent - so, if he hiccups at the gate, while in the 7 hole, and around that 'fall back' crew, it wouldn't be as damning as if he were hung in one of the aux. gate holes
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, I have no doubt that a horse who never raced at 2 will one day win the Derby and it might damn well be tomorrow. I just don't want to play Justify at this price with other horses in the field I like better.
American Pharoah and California Chrome were favorites that I DID back for the Derby and I would have if they too were unraced at 2. I just had major conviction in those horses and didn't really like the competition. I don't think Justify is American Pharoah and I love other horses in this field at more enticing odds. If Justify is as advertised, I'll be down $100ish and I'm okay with that.
American Pharoah and California Chrome were favorites that I DID back for the Derby and I would have if they too were unraced at 2. I just had major conviction in those horses and didn't really like the competition. I don't think Justify is American Pharoah and I love other horses in this field at more enticing odds. If Justify is as advertised, I'll be down $100ish and I'm okay with that.
Similar threads
