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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (2 Viewers)

If he does anything in 2023 it will be a miracle. Trade for him for 2024, not 2023.
Quantify "do anything," please.
Be an effective fantasy asset.
Yeah, Cm Akers and James Robinson were not very good after their injuries so I can agree with this. There are exceptions but very few. Can anybody name any exceptions in the last few years? Not asking to be sarcastic it's just that I'm at Costco with the wife and also need to finish up the honey do list before vacation so I don't have time to look up the info 🙃
Achilles injuries are an entirely different thing. Only really 3 injuries truly concern me, Achilles, Multiple concussions in a short period, and neck/spinal.
I don't think Javonte's career is ruined.

But We saw last year with Dobbins what it looks like trying to come back from a complex ACL tear with involvement of additional parts of the knee. Long term, I agree, I'm not concerned. But for redraft purposes in 2023--I'm probably fading Javonte.
 
If he does anything in 2023 it will be a miracle. Trade for him for 2024, not 2023.
Quantify "do anything," please.
Be an effective fantasy asset.
Yeah, Cm Akers and James Robinson were not very good after their injuries so I can agree with this. There are exceptions but very few. Can anybody name any exceptions in the last few years? Not asking to be sarcastic it's just that I'm at Costco with the wife and also need to finish up the honey do list before vacation so I don't have time to look up the info 🙃
Achilles injuries are an entirely different thing. Only really 3 injuries truly concern me, Achilles, Multiple concussions in a short period, and neck/spinal.
I don't think Javonte's career is ruined.

But We saw last year with Dobbins what it looks like trying to come back from a complex ACL tear with involvement of additional parts of the knee. Long term, I agree, I'm not concerned. But for redraft purposes in 2023--I'm probably fading Javonte.
I think Dobbins is more of an outlier, than an expectation.
 
If he does anything in 2023 it will be a miracle. Trade for him for 2024, not 2023.
Quantify "do anything," please.
Be an effective fantasy asset.
Yeah, Cm Akers and James Robinson were not very good after their injuries so I can agree with this. There are exceptions but very few. Can anybody name any exceptions in the last few years? Not asking to be sarcastic it's just that I'm at Costco with the wife and also need to finish up the honey do list before vacation so I don't have time to look up the info 🙃
Achilles injuries are an entirely different thing. Only really 3 injuries truly concern me, Achilles, Multiple concussions in a short period, and neck/spinal.
 
If he does anything in 2023 it will be a miracle. Trade for him for 2024, not 2023.
Quantify "do anything," please.
Be an effective fantasy asset.
Yeah, Cm Akers and James Robinson were not very good after their injuries so I can agree with this. There are exceptions but very few. Can anybody name any exceptions in the last few years? Not asking to be sarcastic it's just that I'm at Costco with the wife and also need to finish up the honey do list before vacation so I don't have time to look up the info 🙃
Achilles injuries are an entirely different thing. Only really 3 injuries truly concern me, Achilles, Multiple concussions in a short period, and neck/spinal.
I don't think Javonte's career is ruined.

But We saw last year with Dobbins what it looks like trying to come back from a complex ACL tear with involvement of additional parts of the knee. Long term, I agree, I'm not concerned. But for redraft purposes in 2023--I'm probably fading Javonte.
I think Dobbins is more of an outlier, than an expectation.
For ACL tears as a whole, yes.

For more complex ACL tears, probably not.

Breece Hall just tore his ACL. I think he’ll be fine.

Dobbins tore multiple things. He was not fine. Javonte tore multiple things. I’m worried his recovery will be closer to Dobbins than Adrian Peterson.
 
The next key data point will be whether Javonte starts training camp on the PUP list.

Neither Dobbins nor Peterson participated in their team's spring OTA's (even on a limited basis). Javonte has, and so it's not unreasonable to conclude he's already ahead of Dobbins. ADP was a freak, so who knows, but at least participation-wise Javonte is doing more than ADP did at the same point in the offseason.

If it's assumed JW starts training camp on PUP and returns to full participation the first week of August (matching return off PUP for both ADP and Dobbins), then the approx. timeframe from injury/surgery for Javonte will have been 306 days. For Dobbins it took 345 days to get to the same point, and for ADP it was 218 days.
 
If he does anything in 2023 it will be a miracle. Trade for him for 2024, not 2023.
Quantify "do anything," please.
Be an effective fantasy asset.
Yeah, Cm Akers and James Robinson were not very good after their injuries so I can agree with this. There are exceptions but very few. Can anybody name any exceptions in the last few years? Not asking to be sarcastic it's just that I'm at Costco with the wife and also need to finish up the honey do list before vacation so I don't have time to look up the info 🙃
Achilles injuries are an entirely different thing. Only really 3 injuries truly concern me, Achilles, Multiple concussions in a short period, and neck/spinal.
I don't think Javonte's career is ruined.

But We saw last year with Dobbins what it looks like trying to come back from a complex ACL tear with involvement of additional parts of the knee. Long term, I agree, I'm not concerned. But for redraft purposes in 2023--I'm probably fading Javonte.
I think Dobbins is more of an outlier, than an expectation.
For ACL tears as a whole, yes.

For more complex ACL tears, probably not.

Breece Hall just tore his ACL. I think he’ll be fine.

Dobbins tore multiple things. He was not fine. Javonte tore multiple things. I’m worried his recovery will be closer to Dobbins than Adrian Peterson.
I don't see that meaning anything about Javonte. Dobbins was a unique case and had an unusually slow recovery. I think recency bias is getting in the way here. Even for ACL+, Dobbins recovery was below average. Saquon Barkley was ready to go week 1 in 2021, he suffered a 100% unrelated injury in week 5 (maybe the flukiest injury I have EVER seen) but he was ACL and Meniscus.

I see the same thing in the Kyler Murray thread as well. People are talking like he might not even play this season, which is ridiculous, he's no lock to miss week 1. But again, I think people are reacting too much about Dobbins.

Honestly, I'm expecting Javonte to be starting week 1, probably a little limited (like Barkley was) but 10+ touches.
 
If he does anything in 2023 it will be a miracle. Trade for him for 2024, not 2023.
Quantify "do anything," please.
Be an effective fantasy asset.
Yeah, Cm Akers and James Robinson were not very good after their injuries so I can agree with this. There are exceptions but very few. Can anybody name any exceptions in the last few years? Not asking to be sarcastic it's just that I'm at Costco with the wife and also need to finish up the honey do list before vacation so I don't have time to look up the info 🙃
Achilles injuries are an entirely different thing. Only really 3 injuries truly concern me, Achilles, Multiple concussions in a short period, and neck/spinal.
I don't think Javonte's career is ruined.

But We saw last year with Dobbins what it looks like trying to come back from a complex ACL tear with involvement of additional parts of the knee. Long term, I agree, I'm not concerned. But for redraft purposes in 2023--I'm probably fading Javonte.
I think Dobbins is more of an outlier, than an expectation.
For ACL tears as a whole, yes.

For more complex ACL tears, probably not.

Breece Hall just tore his ACL. I think he’ll be fine.

Dobbins tore multiple things. He was not fine. Javonte tore multiple things. I’m worried his recovery will be closer to Dobbins than Adrian Peterson.
I don't see that meaning anything about Javonte. Dobbins was a unique case and had an unusually slow recovery. I think recency bias is getting in the way here. Even for ACL+, Dobbins recovery was below average. Saquon Barkley was ready to go week 1 in 2021, he suffered a 100% unrelated injury in week 5 (maybe the flukiest injury I have EVER seen) but he was ACL and Meniscus.

I see the same thing in the Kyler Murray thread as well. People are talking like he might not even play this season, which is ridiculous, he's no lock to miss week 1. But again, I think people are reacting too much about Dobbins.

Honestly, I'm expecting Javonte to be starting week 1, probably a little limited (like Barkley was) but 10+ touches.
Thanks for this info. Someone dropped him in our dynasty league during the playoffs. Our IR rule to pick up a player. I'm at 1.06 so yeH, I'm interested in him. He's still young.
 
I see the same thing in the Kyler Murray thread as well. People are talking like he might not even play this season, which is ridiculous, he's no lock to miss week 1. But again, I think people are reacting too much about Dobbins.
What's the first thing we heard after Javonte was hurt? How bad it was, worst case scenario.

People go with the first thing they heard.
 
meh. I have him in a dynasty league. probably won't keep him and I doubt he has any real trade value. I'll bet he starts on the PUP and misses, what, 6-8 games? maybe he's a guy to help you down the stretch of the season - MAYBE
 

Broncos HC Sean Payton said he is "optimistic" about Javonte Williams' progress as he recovers from last year's torn ACL.​

It may not sound like much, but Payton's optimism feels like a good sign for Williams as training camp approaches. While little has been said about when Williams could see a full return to the field, the Broncos have done little to insulate themselves from him missing any extended period of time this season. The team has distanced itself from the rumors of signing a veteran like Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette and made Samaje Perine their only notable running back addition of the offseason. While any delay in Williams' recovery could spur the signing of a veteran back, the Broncos seem prepared to move forward with their current backfield heading into training camp.
RELATED:
SOURCE: Chris Tomasson on Twitter
Jun 15, 2023, 11:22 AM ET
 

That's great and all, but every player thinks they can play after coming back from a major injury. ADP is the only freak athlete whoever came back in full force the next year after a major ACL injury. I love Javonte Williams, and his sitiuation literally went from the worst possible to one of the best possible situations with Payton, but it usually takes a year to come back full force. Definitely one to keep a close eye on.
 
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ADP is the only freak athlete whoever came back in full force
Sorry to point this out but that's not remotely accurate.
The next year after major ACL injury? it's 100% accurate
Well Jamaal Charles should end this portion of the chat.

There have been others that looked back to full force but a major issue with a lot of them has been other injuries. Dalvin and Barkley would be such examples. That's been a bigger issue then performance the year after ACL surgery for most of these RB's, they struggle staying healthy the following season.
 
ADP is the only freak athlete whoever came back in full force
Sorry to point this out but that's not remotely accurate.
The next year after major ACL injury? it's 100% accurate
Well Jamaal Charles should end this portion of the chat.

There have been others that looked back to full force but a major issue with a lot of them has been other injuries. Dalvin and Barkley would be such examples. That's been a bigger issue then performance the year after ACL surgery for most of these RB's, they struggle staying healthy the following season.

My bad Forgot about Charles. The main thing is that they don't play at 100%, and aren't 100% confident in their knee. They are more likely to get re-injured again like you said, and even though they act like they are 100% during that season we can all tell that they aren't. The point I am making is that even though Javonte Williams says he will be ready to go doesn't mean I trust him and that it won't take him 6-8 weeks to get back to "Almost" normal.

Saquon is a great example. He was saying that he was great all year during 2021, but got re-injured. Than after that season he started talking about how he was not 100% confident in his knee, and was not playing at 100% himself because of the lack of confidence and that he just never felt like he was 100%. Why I didn't draft him in 2021, but drafted him in every league in 2022.
 
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As a JW owner I'm hoping for the best but not expecting it, at least not immediately. He might be a solid addition to any fantasy team to be used from Halloween onward.
 
There have been others that looked back to full force but a major issue with a lot of them has been other injuries. Dalvin and Barkley would be such examples. That's been a bigger issue then performance the year after ACL surgery for most of these RB's, they struggle staying healthy the following season.
Those "other injuries" typically are a direct result of the rehab/loss of muscle/cascade injuries from the major knee injury. So those other injuries are original injury related. They can't just be written off as they were fine from the knee injury if only those other injuries didn't happen.
 
Those "other injuries" typically are a direct result of the rehab/loss of muscle/cascade injuries from the major knee injury. So those other injuries are original injury related. They can't just be written off as they were fine from the knee injury if only those other injuries didn't happen.

Dalvin was a cascade effect it would seem. His problem was hamstrings. Barkley had a player roll up on his ankle after a play was over. I don't think it was related at all to his knee. But yes, cascading injuries in the second year are a part of ACL tears and repairs.
 
Barkley had a player roll up on his ankle after a play was over.
I agree. This was a fluke and not ACL related. I wasn't specifically talking about Barkley. Just players in general returning from ACL/Knee surgeries. Many times they injury other areas (hamstrings is a common one as you mentioned) because they are compensating.

What set AP apart was he had very little muscle atrophy around the knee so he didn't have to rebuild that portion before he could go full strength. I remember reading quotes from his doctors saying they had never seen anything like it. He didn't have the typical muscle atrophy of the quad/hamstring/calf that most players get when going through ACL tear treatment/rehab and that went a long way in helping him be back so soon and minimized the cascade type injuries most players have to deal with. Just a freak of nature.
 
I remember reading quotes from his doctors saying they had never seen anything like it.

I agree with your whole post and remember this part, too. I think it was Dr. James Andrews's team that did the AP surgery. Wow. That's about how you know I'm serious about fantasy football. I can remember the doctor, at least I think.
 
Yep.


Dr. James Andrews

"I say an athlete after (an) ACL (tear) is much better the second year back than the first year back," Andrews told the Pioneer Press. "First year back is a wash. It hasn't been a wash for him, obviously. After 24 months, (an athlete is) a lot more mature and confident."
 
Javonte Williams' current ranking/ADP is roughly RB28.

For 2022, the average PPR production of RBs 27-29 (Pierce, Gibson, Allgeier) according to Fantasy Pros was 1,050 total yds, 31 recpts and 4.7 TDs.

If 100% healthy, JW would absolutely smoke those numbers. But let's assume his 2023 upside is only 1,500 total yards, 50 recpts, and 8 TD's (roughly 2022 RB10-12).

So at RB28 JW is currently priced at less than 60 percent of his potential production relative to a "healthy" year, with a very achievable upside of RB10.

A risk/return judgement call? Absolutely.

But no idea how this is a definitive "hard pass" or "do not draft" scenario for anyone.
 
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But no idea how this is a definitive "hard pass" or "do not draft" scenario for anyone.

It's very feasible he doesn't play the first 6 games and wont be 100% when he returns like multiple other elite backs before him....there are plenty of other good players at his ADP.

HARD PASS
 
It's fine to not like the current risk/return tradeoff, but the whole "new information" comment is just bogus.

Telling somebody that their opinion is "bogus" probably isn't the best way for you to communicate here.

I respect your opinions that I disagree with. I'd advise you to do the same.
 
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Williams' ADP currently reflects a roughly 60% discount relative to potential performance.
Okay, 60% discount fron his potential ... But what is the probability that he achieves said potential? Is potential equivalent to ceiling?
The numbers are there in my post. The 60% is off an assumed 2023 potential of 1500 total yds/50 recpts / 8 Td's. Which I personally consider to be conservative and therefore his ceiling to be even higher.

Therefore if someone believes Williams only has 60% chance of achieving 2023 potential as defined above, then his ADP/ranking of RB28 is appropriate pricing given how 2022 RBs performed.

Pretty much just expected value concept
 
Javonte Williams' current ranking/ADP is roughly RB28.

For 2022, the average PPR production of RBs 27-29 (Pierce, Gibson, Allgeier) according to Fantasy Pros was 1,050 total yds, 31 recpts and 4.7 TDs.

If 100% healthy, JW would absolutely smoke those numbers. But let's be extremely conservative and assume his 2023 upside is only 1,500 total yards, 50 recpts, and 8 TD's (roughly 2022 RB17 Travis Etienne's totals).

So at RB28 JW is currently priced at less than 60 percent of his conservative potential production relative to a "healthy" year, with a very achievable upside of at least RB17.

A risk/return judgement call? Absolutely.

But no idea how this is a definitive "hard pass" or "do not draft" scenario for anyone.
I think your numbers are off- 1500 yds, 50 recepts, and 8 TDs is a lot more than RB 17 last year, it would have put him right around RB 10. I also disagree that those numbers are "extremely conservative". IMO it would be a near miracle for him to do that this year.
Lol. Good luck with that. No one on the planet will know that until he plays at least 3-4 regular season games.

Williams' ADP currently reflects a roughly 60% discount relative to potential performance. And the more "new information" that comes along he in TC/preseason, the more that discount will go away.

It's fine to not like the current risk/return tradeoff, but the whole "new information" comment is just bogus.
Again, I think you have your numbers reversed- it's a roughly 40% discount to your estimates of his potential performance (60% OF your number). You're also completely dismissing the possibility that the discount could grow as more information comes along in TC/preseason. New information goes both ways, one setback and it could tank his value.

I like Javonte a lot (and own him), but there's no denying there's plenty of uncertainty and a huge range of outcomes for this season. I think his ADP is about right and offers reward along with the risk, but some are more risk averse than others.
 
Lol. Good luck with that. No one on the planet will know that until he plays at least 3-4 regular season games.

Williams' ADP currently reflects a roughly 60% discount relative to potential performance. And the more "new information" that comes along he in TC/preseason, the more that discount will go away.

It's fine to not like the current risk/return tradeoff, but the whole "new information" comment is just bogus.

Please be more cool than that. He's looking to see if we get new information. And explained. That's not "bogus".
 

That's great and all, but every player thinks they can play after coming back from a major injury. ADP is the only freak athlete whoever came back in full force the next year after a major ACL injury. I love Javonte Williams, and his sitiuation literally went from the worst possible to one of the best possible situations with Payton, but it usually takes a year to come back full force. Definitely one to keep a close eye on.
ADP was a freak, but so was Jerry Rice, who tore his ACL the first week of 1997. He returned to the field in week 16 of the same season. He scored a touchdown, but on that play fractured his kneecap.
 
Javonte Williams' current ranking/ADP is roughly RB28.

For 2022, the average PPR production of RBs 27-29 (Pierce, Gibson, Allgeier) according to Fantasy Pros was 1,050 total yds, 31 recpts and 4.7 TDs.

If 100% healthy, JW would absolutely smoke those numbers. But let's be extremely conservative and assume his 2023 upside is only 1,500 total yards, 50 recpts, and 8 TD's (roughly 2022 RB17 Travis Etienne's totals).

So at RB28 JW is currently priced at less than 60 percent of his conservative potential production relative to a "healthy" year, with a very achievable upside of at least RB17.

A risk/return judgement call? Absolutely.

But no idea how this is a definitive "hard pass" or "do not draft" scenario for anyone.
I think your numbers are off- 1500 yds, 50 recepts, and 8 TDs is a lot more than RB 17 last year, it would have put him right around RB 10. I also disagree that those numbers are "extremely conservative". IMO it would be a near miracle for him to do that this year.
Lol. Good luck with that. No one on the planet will know that until he plays at least 3-4 regular season games.

Williams' ADP currently reflects a roughly 60% discount relative to potential performance. And the more "new information" that comes along he in TC/preseason, the more that discount will go away.

It's fine to not like the current risk/return tradeoff, but the whole "new information" comment is just bogus.
Again, I think you have your numbers reversed- it's a roughly 40% discount to your estimates of his potential performance (60% OF your number). You're also completely dismissing the possibility that the discount could grow as more information comes along in TC/preseason. New information goes both ways, one setback and it could tank his value.

I like Javonte a lot (and own him), but there's no denying there's plenty of uncertainty and a huge range of outcomes for this season. I think his ADP is about right and offers reward along with the risk, but some are more risk averse than others.
You are completely correct on the discount being reversed, so thanks for pointing that out. It should be 40% discount / 60% of potential.

Agreed that "new information" cuts both ways, but that's kind of the whole point. At any point in time, "current ADP" will factor in whatever is current market info. So IMHO taking a blanket "hard pass" or "do not draft" a guy who is already (deeply) discounted, without quantifying what that discount means, is a bit draconian IMHO.

I used 1500, etc as JW's rough "potential" since it reflects 100% health. IMHO that avoids applying a discount on a discount. I'd rather just apply a single discount off an assumed healthy top-line number. And you are also correct that would be closer to RB12.
 
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When I'm drafting Javonte it's primarily for the playoffs. I'm actually hoping that they'll take it slow with him (unlike Dobbins last year), so he'll sit out the first few weeks of the season, then gradually get worked back in over the next few weeks, and won't have much fantasy value until midseason. But at that point, if he's back to form, then he could outplay Perine by a wide margin and take over that backfield. He has a realistic shot at being a top 5 RB over the fantasy playoffs, which is much better playoff upside than you're usually getting at that part of the draft.

The playoffs count for like half the fantasy season (more in some formats), and he might also be good for half the fantasy regular season, so that could be 3/4 as good as him playing well for the whole season.
 

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