Javonte Williams' current ranking/ADP is roughly RB28.
For 2022, the average PPR production of RBs 27-29 (Pierce, Gibson, Allgeier) according to Fantasy Pros was 1,050 total yds, 31 recpts and 4.7 TDs.
If 100% healthy, JW would absolutely smoke those numbers. But let's be extremely conservative and assume his 2023 upside is only 1,500 total yards, 50 recpts, and 8 TD's (roughly 2022 RB17 Travis Etienne's totals).
So at RB28 JW is currently priced at less than 60 percent of his conservative potential production relative to a "healthy" year, with a very achievable upside of at least RB17.
A risk/return judgement call? Absolutely.
But no idea how this is a definitive "hard pass" or "do not draft" scenario for anyone.
I think your numbers are off- 1500 yds, 50 recepts, and 8 TDs is a lot more than RB 17 last year, it would have put him right around RB 10. I also disagree that those numbers are "extremely conservative". IMO it would be a near miracle for him to do that this year.
Lol. Good luck with that. No one on the planet will know that until he plays at least 3-4 regular season games.
Williams' ADP currently reflects a roughly 60% discount relative to potential performance. And the more "new information" that comes along he in TC/preseason, the more that discount will go away.
It's fine to not like the current risk/return tradeoff, but the whole "new information" comment is just bogus.
Again, I think you have your numbers reversed- it's a roughly 40% discount to your estimates of his potential performance (60% OF your number). You're also completely dismissing the possibility that the discount could grow as more information comes along in TC/preseason. New information goes both ways, one setback and it could tank his value.
I like Javonte a lot (and own him), but there's no denying there's plenty of uncertainty and a huge range of outcomes for this season. I think his ADP is about right and offers reward along with the risk, but some are more risk averse than others.
