Why I Think Adonai Mitchell is a WR2 in 2024 - Plus Talk On Going Against ADP (1 Viewer)

[Zareh Kantzabedian]

Hi BassNBrew! Thank you for catching the Frank Reich error in my previous analysis. I appreciate your feedback on the article. I apologize for any confusion caused by this oversight. I'll talk about all of the concerns you mentioned in my reply.

Adonai Mitchell's collegiate route tree and exceptional athleticism position him as a promising NFL X wide receiver. His skill set aligns perfectly with the Colts' needs in the deep to intermediate passing game, sparking optimism for his potential impact.

Alec Pierce was supposed to be that guy, but he has yet to surpass 600 receiving yards in two years, and it's not because of a lack of opportunity.

In 2023, Pierce averaged a 95 percent snap share and ranked seventh in routes run among wide receivers. Despite that, he ranked 79th in targets per game at 3.8 and averaged 4.7 fantasy points per game.

Good wide receivers earn plenty of targets. Pierce failed to do so. Additionally, he was selected by Frank Reich and has no ties to Shane Steichen.

Per Next Gen Stats, Pierce ranked 91st out of 93 wide receivers in separation and 92nd out of 93 in catch percentage. Pierce's win rate vs. man coverage ranked 99th in 2023. In contrast, Mitchell's win rate vs man in 2023 was in the 84th percentile per Reception Perception, indicating his ability to consistently beat man coverage, a valuable skill for a wide receiver.

Josh Downs is a good player, and I was a big fan of him coming out of UNC. However, his opportunity is capped as the Colts' designated slot wide receiver. In 2023, he averaged a 68 percent snap share, ranked 50th in targets per game at 5.6, and averaged 7.2 fantasy points per game.

As far as being surrounded by young wide receivers, Pittman is 26, Pierce is 24, Downs is 22, and Mitchell is 21.

If draft capital is a concern outside of Pittman, Mitchell was drafted earliest with the 52nd pick, Pierce with the 53rd, and Downs with the 79th.

Three rookie wide receivers last year finished as WR2s in points per game and were drafted similarly to Mitchell.

Jayden Reed: 50TH pick (Packers ranked 20th in pass attempts per game)

Rashee Rice: 52nd pick (Chiefs ranked 7th in pass attempts per game)

Tank Dell: 69th pick (Texans ranked 15th in pass attempts per game)

Yes, Jonathan Taylor is a fantastic running back, but the Colts were one of the more balanced teams in the league in 2023, meaning they distributed their offensive plays relatively evenly between passing and rushing. While Richardson was playing, the Colts ranked 12th in pass attempts per game and 10th in rush attempts per game. This balance suggests that there are ample opportunities for wide receivers like Mitchell to receive targets.

Pierce averaged less than four targets per game. Mitchell shouldn't have a problem averaging five to seven targets per game. If we include yards per reception and TD upside, the prospect of him finishing as a WR2 in PPG looks good.

Landing spot matters so much in the NFL, which is why I put Mitchell's stock going up. Steichen is one of the more offensively competent coaches and drafts with the intention of getting his players the ball. Mitchell is paired with a quarterback with complementary traits to elevate his fantasy value.

Mitchell is still cheap in drafts. He is being selected as WR52 right now. Considering his ADP holds, you’d get value in a player with a very high upside. Here is a list of WRs going directly ahead of Mitchell:

· Xavier Worthy
· Khalil Shakir
· Tyler Lockett
· Jakobi Meyers
· Curtis Samuel
· Jameson Williams
· Romeo Doubs
· Mike Williams
· Courtland Sutton
· JSN

One of the best things about fantasy football is finding the cracks in consensus ADP rather than strictly adhering to it and zigging when others zag. Finding value involves searching for certain indicators.

In Mitchell’s case, it's profile (tangible and intangible), team fit (quarterback, coach, GM), and opportunity (high demand). I’d very much encourage all managers to select him at cost.

I hope this offered some perspective into my process.

 

[Memphis Foundry]

Hey @BassNBrew -- we had some technical issues getting Zareh's message board account set up so that he could reply to the other thread. I asked him to post in a new thread here and I'll link to this one in the other thread.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet. The Colts are still a run first team and that isn't going to change in 2024. I don't think he's a WR2 in fantasy by any stretch of the imagination, not for 2024. I'm not going beyond that however. Don't get me wrong, I think Mitchell was an excellent pick for the Colts, but not for fantasy.....yet...

 

[Loipz]

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

 

[Zareh Kantzabedian]

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet. The Colts are still a run first team and that isn't going to change in 2024. I don't think he's a WR2 in fantasy by any stretch of the imagination, not for 2024. I'm not going beyond that however. Don't get me wrong, I think Mitchell was an excellent pick for the Colts, but not for fantasy.....yet...

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet. The Colts are still a run first team and that isn't going to change in 2024. I don't think he's a WR2 in fantasy by any stretch of the imagination, not for 2024. I'm not going beyond that however. Don't get me wrong, I think Mitchell was an excellent pick for the Colts, but not for fantasy.....yet...

Hi Johnny. I addressed that in my post.

“Yes, Jonathan Taylor is a fantastic running back, but the Colts were one of the more balanced teams in the league in 2023, meaning they distributed their offensive plays relatively evenly between passing and rushing. While Richardson was playing, the Colts ranked 12th in pass attempts per game and 10th in rush attempts per game. This balance suggests that there are ample opportunities for wide receivers like Mitchell to receive targets”

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks @Zareh Kantzabedian

This also brings up a bigger point. A big part of Footballguys is we gather a wide range of opinions on players.

Our "Bottom Line" is always going to be our official rankings. You can see our Rookie WR rankings here https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1785119600079933742

But we'll often have folks with a strong opinion on players. Zareh is one of those guys with Mitchell.

And as the owner of the site, I always want to give our folks the freedom to go out on a limb. As long as they'll back up their opinions. As Zareh is doing here.

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

But we feel we owe our readers more than that. So we'll continue to what we've always done and tell folks what we actually think. Like Zareh did here.

If you want our bottom line, again, it's the official rankings. But I love the discussion that comes with a smart person (and Zareh definitely is) when they have a take that goes against what everyone else is doing.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet.

Richardson is for sure the hinge on this. He's got to perform as well as we think he can for this scenario to work out.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet. The Colts are still a run first team and that isn't going to change in 2024. I don't think he's a WR2 in fantasy by any stretch of the imagination, not for 2024. I'm not going beyond that however. Don't get me wrong, I think Mitchell was an excellent pick for the Colts, but not for fantasy.....yet...

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet. The Colts are still a run first team and that isn't going to change in 2024. I don't think he's a WR2 in fantasy by any stretch of the imagination, not for 2024. I'm not going beyond that however. Don't get me wrong, I think Mitchell was an excellent pick for the Colts, but not for fantasy.....yet...

Hi Johnny. I addressed that in my post.

“Yes, Jonathan Taylor is a fantastic running back, but the Colts were one of the more balanced teams in the league in 2023, meaning they distributed their offensive plays relatively evenly between passing and rushing. While Richardson was playing, the Colts ranked 12th in pass attempts per game and 10th in rush attempts per game. This balance suggests that there are ample opportunities for wide receivers like Mitchell to receive targets”

They want to run the ball if it's effective and I think that doesn't change with Richardson. His sample size was small in 2024, but his rushing ability is without question and there's still Jonathan Taylor. When AR went down the entire playbook changed and they had to pass more when falling behind. I'm not sure Richardson will be effective enough passing the ball to support Mitchell enough for him to be a fantasy WR2. Just a Colts fan point of view.

 

[Boston]

When breaking down players I really like an upside/downside approach to it as that is far more realistic...you definitely hit on the upside but a lot of WR-needy teams passed on Mitchell...why do you think that happened?

 

[Zareh Kantzabedian]

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

I think it’s safe to say that Quinn Ewers left about 250+ air yards off the table.

 

[Big Nate]

I wanted to be all in on this guy and maybe in some drafts he will be available for cheaper now with his slide to the second round as the 11th WR off the board. That seems more reasonable with concerns about taking plays off, not blocking and being lost on the snap counts (seems unaware at times what's happening). Many NFL teams that needed WRs passed him up for these reasons. Those who scouted him saw some red flags.

Effort, blocking, concentration, play awareness all need too improve. He has the physical talents to be a really good WR but is he willing to put the work in?

I think Indy is a good fit if they can get him to focus and give it full effort every play. We just haven't seen it yet. Was he just disinterested at Texas? He did transfer from Georgia - why? Was it effort concerns then too? I do hope he figures it out as he has all the athleticism to be a very good player.

 

[Big Nate]

When breaking down players I really like an upside/downside approach to it as that is far more realistic...you definitely hit on the upside but a lot of WR-needy teams passed on Mitchell...why do you think that happened?

This was my issue with his post. All rosy except many NFL teams who needed WRs passed on him. He has his red flags.

 

[Big Nate]

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

I think it’s safe to say that Quinn Ewers left about 250+ air yards off the table.

Ewers didn't help their WRs that is for sure. Which makes it scary thinking what Worthy and Mahomes could do. Could blow the tops off defenses.

 

[JohnnyU]

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

I think it’s safe to say that Quinn Ewers left about 250+ air yards off the table.

I wouldn't project WR value in the NFL on that. Now that we know where he is in the NFL, there are a lot more variables to consider than college production. As for Texas, Mitchell did take plays off from time-to-time, but I think Reggie Wayne and Shane Steichen will remedy that, but if not, he could get off to a sour start in Indy. Josh Downs was good in spurts in 2023 and could take another step forward.

 

[Joe Bryant]

When breaking down players I really like an upside/downside approach to it as that is far more realistic...you definitely hit on the upside but a lot of WR-needy teams passed on Mitchell...why do you think that happened?

Excellent question and you're right, it's smart to consider both sides there.

 

[Big Nate]

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

I think it’s safe to say that Quinn Ewers left about 250+ air yards off the table.

I wouldn't project WR value in the NFL on that. Now that we know where he is in the NFL, there are a lot more variables to consider than college production. As for Texas, Mitchell did take plays off from time-to-time, but I think Reggie Wayne and Shane Steichen will remedy that, but if not, he could get off to a sour start in Indy. Josh Downs was good in spurts in 2023 and could take another step forward.

Downs is the interesting one here. A guy who balls out and gives it everything each play. I can see him being a coaches favorite. Moreover he plays a different role than Mitchell. Downs issue is he is always banged up. When he's out there hes a good NFL receiver for that team. I don't expect Downs to be a top NFL receiver but if he can stay healthy he could carve out long career catching key passes from ARich. ARich had glowing things to say about him in their first year together. Curious how this shakes out if both can stay healthy this year.

If you believe in Downs there is a buy window open right now.

 

[Zareh Kantzabedian]

When breaking down players I really like an upside/downside approach to it as that is far more realistic...you definitely hit on the upside but a lot of WR-needy teams passed on Mitchell...why do you think that happened?

Great point. I’ll be sure to frame my analysis with that perspective going forward.

I think every team that didn't select Mitchell in the second round was flush with receiver talent already.

Mitchell showed inconsistencies in his game in 2023. Something that, to the best of my knowledge, wasn't an issue in Georgia.

So, if I'm doing the math correctly, I'd presume that Mitchell wasn't motivated to play in an offense that was handicapped by Quinn Ewers’ inability to deliver deep passes accurately. He should've still played with maximum effort. I'd say that's a maturity issue.

He also has diabetes, so that may have been another factor.

Minor blemishes are what take a player out of the first round.

I think it's fair to assume Jonathon Brooks would've been a first-round selection had he not suffered an ACL tear in 2023.

Mitchell transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter, not because he couldn't cut it at Georgia.

He unfortunately landed in a system that hampered him.

This leads me to my next point: System fit.

Based on need alone, the Colts couldn't have had a better prospect land in their lap in the second round.

After seeing GM Chris Ballard going to bat for him in the post-draft press conference, as well as the coach, the role, and the QB, I think Mitchell is going to buy in.

 

[TripItUp]

I'll take the over on WR24

I don't think he'll have the volume or the quality of targets to finish that highly. I do think he can beat expectations and perhaps finish top 40.

 

[pinkstapler]

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

I think it’s safe to say that Quinn Ewers left about 250+ air yards off the table.

I don't know how, or even if, that will translate to 2024 and how he fairs on the Colts; but I couldn't agree more with the bolded. I think AD popped up in a lot of negative comp lists predraft due to some season averages which were very negatively impacted by Ewers play. After watching only 4-5 condensed college games, I stopped counting how many times Ewers threw him an injury ball (very out of position pass), or missed him all together. You combine this with the very IMO gimmicky offense Texas ran, and I think it contributed a lot to some of those poor YPG, YPRR, YAC numbers he had.

With respect to the "taking plays off" thing, I also think I saw Worthy take off just as many plays as Mitchell did. I'd again attribute part of that to the weird offense Texas ran, but I'm also a believer that Mitchell didn't do anything on tape much different than any other college receiver I watched in prep this year. His problem was he said the quiet part out loud. Most WRs "take plays off", even in the NFL. Very, very few WRs are running 100% every single down. They also aren't going George Pickens and making it obvious lol. If they are called to block they do, if not, they go about 80% or so. The more you look for it, the more it's there. And it makes sense tbh, you just don't have guys coming out and admitting that to the cameras. Instead they comment on the players who have motors that never stop; the very rare, pro bowl, HoF caliber guys. It's not a realistic standard IMO to the 95% of the rest of the guys in the league.

Most of my questions for projecting Colts WRs next year comes back to ARichs play, and to a lesser extent the defense (game script). If Mitchell can beat out Pierce, and relegates him to the bench for the most part, I can see a world where he maybeeee becomes a low end WR2. But I don't see him taking a ton of touches away from Pittman. And Downs plays the slot, which is not at all ADs strength IMO, so those touches I don't see going his way at all. I think he could be the outside guy in 3 WR sets; which they did run a lot of 11 personnel, so I guess there's a chance.

I just keep looking at last years numbers for the Colts and have a hard time finding the targets; unless they suddenly change their scheme a lot in a year. Taking all of Pierce's targets (65) and generously finding another 35 for him gets him to about 100 for the season. The low end WR2s last year who only got around 100 targets almost all had 7-10 TDs to round out their ranking. Which I think is a lot for a rookie, let alone one on a team with a rushing QB and a top RB to use in the redzone. The low end WR2s who didn't rely on TDs to get there, had closer to 140-160 targets (Wilson/Theilan/McClaurin/etc.) I can't see him getting that unless he goes full Puka as a rookie and basically relegates Pittman to the WR2/2nd look in the offense.

Love and appreciate the analysis and talking points though; thanks for sparking the conversation! It's a deserved one to have.

 

[Zareh Kantzabedian]

I'll take the over on WR24

I don't think he'll have the volume or the quality of targets to finish that highly. I do think he can beat expectations and perhaps finish top 40.

WR2 in fantasy? Idk how confident one can be in someone who went over 100 only 3 times and 10 times went under 61 yards.

I think it’s safe to say that Quinn Ewers left about 250+ air yards off the table.

I don't know how, or even if, that will translate to 2024 and how he fairs on the Colts; but I couldn't agree more with the bolded. I think AD popped up in a lot of negative comp lists predraft due to some season averages which were very negatively impacted by Ewers play. After watching only 4-5 condensed college games, I stopped counting how many times Ewers threw him an injury ball (very out of position pass), or missed him all together. You combine this with the very IMO gimmicky offense Texas ran, and I think it contributed a lot to some of those poor YPG, YPRR, YAC numbers he had.

With respect to the "taking plays off" thing, I also think I saw Worthy take off just as many plays as Mitchell did. I'd again attribute part of that to the weird offense Texas ran, but I'm also a believer that Mitchell didn't do anything on tape much different than any other college receiver I watched in prep this year. His problem was he said the quiet part out loud. Most WRs "take plays off", even in the NFL. Very, very few WRs are running 100% every single down. They also aren't going George Pickens and making it obvious lol. If they are called to block they do, if not, they go about 80% or so. The more you look for it, the more it's there. And it makes sense tbh, you just don't have guys coming out and admitting that to the cameras. Instead they comment on the players who have motors that never stop; the very rare, pro bowl, HoF caliber guys. It's not a realistic standard IMO to the 95% of the rest of the guys in the league.

Most of my questions for projecting Colts WRs next year comes back to ARichs play, and to a lesser extent the defense (game script). If Mitchell can beat out Pierce, and relegates him to the bench for the most part, I can see a world where he maybeeee becomes a low end WR2. But I don't see him taking a ton of touches away from Pittman. And Downs plays the slot, which is not at all ADs strength IMO, so those touches I don't see going his way at all. I think he could be the outside guy in 3 WR sets; which they did run a lot of 11 personnel, so I guess there's a chance.

I just keep looking at last years numbers for the Colts and have a hard time finding the targets; unless they suddenly change their scheme a lot in a year. Taking all of Pierce's targets (65) and generously finding another 35 for him gets him to about 100 for the season. The low end WR2s last year who only got around 100 targets almost all had 7-10 TDs to round out their ranking. Which I think is a lot for a rookie, let alone one on a team with a rushing QB and a top RB to use in the redzone. The low end WR2s who didn't rely on TDs to get there, had closer to 140-160 targets (Wilson/Theilan/McClaurin/etc.) I can't see him getting that unless he goes full Puka as a rookie and basically relegates Pittman to the WR2/2nd look in the offense.

Love and appreciate the analysis and talking points though; thanks for sparking the conversation! It's a deserved one to have.

Thank you! Great points.

Considering Pierce’s ineffectiveness as a receiver, I’d say it’s less about us finding targets and it’s more about AD earning more targets than Pierce did.

 

[massraider]

Yes, possible WR2 for the Colts, but I don't think Richardson can support that many human bodies yet

This is where I'm at.

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks @Zareh Kantzabedian

This also brings up a bigger point. A big part of Footballguys is we gather a wide range of opinions on players.

Our "Bottom Line" is always going to be our official rankings. You can see our Rookie WR rankings here https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1785119600079933742

But we'll often have folks with a strong opinion on players. Zareh is one of those guys with Mitchell.

And as the owner of the site, I always want to give our folks the freedom to go out on a limb. As long as they'll back up their opinions. As Zareh is doing here.

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

But we feel we owe our readers more than that. So we'll continue to what we've always done and tell folks what we actually think. Like Zareh did here.

If you want our bottom line, again, it's the official rankings. But I love the discussion that comes with a smart person (and Zareh definitely is) when they have a take that goes against what everyone else is doing.

I appreciate the thesis here and love reading differing opinions, however I think the "bottom line" should also be reflected in articles that lead off like this....

Instant NFL Draft Reactions​

NFL teams are drafting their rookies. What does it mean for their 2024 fantasy football outlooks? Find out here!

When the opinions don't follow the company line the article titles should read more like

Zareh's Instant NFL Draft Reaction

NFL teams are drafting their rookies and Zareh identifies potential breakout candidates.

IMO Footballguys needs to do a much better job letting us know if an article is a Footballguy position (or consensus of FBG staff) or a random staff voice. In the case of the later it should be identified in the title of the first paragraph such as "post Draft Bloom 100".

 

[BassNBrew]

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

Best rebuttal ever to your statement above

 

[Loipz]

this guy never really dominated and we’re extrapolating so much and blaming his qb for missed air yards in college. He had worthy on the other side so he wasn’t the only guy. If he was that good he’d have done better imo. He did nothing for 2 years then did okay across a guy who went off. What am I missing on him besides a nice combine?

 

[BassNBrew]

this guy never really dominated and we’re extrapolating so much and blaming his qb for missed air yards in college. He had worthy on the other side so he wasn’t the only guy. If he was that good he’d have done better imo. He did nothing for 2 years then did okay across a guy who went off. What am I missing on him besides a nice combine?

Sanders the TE at had close to 700 yards on only 45 receptions.

 

[BassNBrew]

For Mitchell to be a WR2 he'll have to pass or mirror Pittman. Zareh is expecting the later. Let's start a list of tandems in the NFL

Brown/Smith
Aiyuk/Samuel
Chase/Higgins
Hill/Waddle
Nuka/Kupp
Moore/Allen (not sure about this one but most will project Williams pass yards over Richardson)
Evans/Godwin
Diggs/Dell

That's 16 WRs before you starting adding in the solo guys like Jefferson, Lamb, Wilson, DK, ASB, Brown, Flowers, Cooper and we have even mention the rookies drafted the top 10 Mitchell will have to top.

 

[Joe Bryant]

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

Best rebuttal ever to your statement above

The bolded statement above said I get it. Adam's excellent article has been a foundation feature on the site. But I still like to see someone make a case for a player outside of ADP. Which is actually what Adam is suggesting.

 

[travdogg]

I think both things can be true:

Adonai Mitchell is the most talented WR on the Colts.

Adonai Mitchell is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order, at least as a rookie.

 

[ffmail4me]

Anyone taking him over Worthy in PPR dynasty leagues??

 

[titusbramble]

Anyone taking him over Worthy in PPR dynasty leagues??

I wouldn't be

 

[-OZ-]

I think both things can be true:

Adonai Mitchell is the most talented WR on the Colts.

Adonai Mitchell is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order, at least as a rookie.

Do you think he’s more talented than Pittman?

 

[Big Nate]

Anyone taking him over Worthy in PPR dynasty leagues??

Nope, its not even close either for me.

My early WR rankings after the first three go: Worthy, Thomas, McConkey, Coleman, Legette, Pearsall (as the roster stands now), Mitchell. I'd also take Brooks, and likely Benson over Mitchell. I'd take Nix and Penix over Mitchell too in SF.

The more I think about Wright I might take Wright too. Once I started digging into Mitchell the red flags came out. Seems the NFL thinks that too.

It all comes down to if Mitchell can fix the effort and concentration issues.

 

[Big Nate]

I think both things can be true:

Adonai Mitchell is the most talented WR on the Colts.

Adonai Mitchell is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order, at least as a rookie.

Do you think he’s more talented than Pittman?

No. Physically maybe, but Pittman has shown he can do it in the NFL. I think Mitchell's absolute ceiling is higher if he hits it, but I don't believe he will get there.

Pittman's targets: 129, 141 and 156. He gets open and has shown he can be a #1 target in an offense. He's pushed WR1 numbers a few times but hasn't has consistent QB play.

 

[-OZ-]

For Mitchell to be a WR2 he'll have to pass or mirror Pittman. Zareh is expecting the later. Let's start a list of tandems in the NFL

Brown/Smith
Aiyuk/Samuel
Chase/Higgins
Hill/Waddle
Nuka/Kupp
Moore/Allen (not sure about this one but most will project Williams pass yards over Richardson)
Evans/Godwin
Diggs/Dell

That's 16 WRs before you starting adding in the solo guys like Jefferson, Lamb, Wilson, DK, ASB, Brown, Flowers, Cooper and we have even mention the rookies drafted the top 10 Mitchell will have to top.

For either to be a wr2, AR has to improve his accuracy. Probably not run 10x / game.
I do like Mitchell as a late round best ball lottery ticket.

 

[Ilov80s]

I’m so out on AD Mitchell. Low volume passing offense with competition, really poor analytical college profile and he kind of slipped relative to what we expected in the draft. Redraft I’ll take a stab at the right price but in dynasty, I’m not interested.

 

[travdogg]

I think both things can be true:

Adonai Mitchell is the most talented WR on the Colts.

Adonai Mitchell is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order, at least as a rookie.

Do you think he’s more talented than Pittman?

I think its on the table. I think Pittman is a good, but not great WR, who has benefitted from being the only game in town.

We really have little to go on, as Richardson only attempted 84 passes, its possible (and should maybe even be the assumption) that Pittman's breakout last year was more to do with Minshew than anything Pittman himself did.

I mean, if you really wanna look at (and I'm not saying its meaningful data as its such a small sample size) Josh Downs outproduced Pittman in Richardson's last 2 starts.

 

[Big Nate]

I think both things can be true:

Adonai Mitchell is the most talented WR on the Colts.

Adonai Mitchell is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order, at least as a rookie.

Do you think he’s more talented than Pittman?

I think its on the table. I think Pittman is a good, but not great WR, who has benefitted from being the only game in town.

We really have little to go on, as Richardson only attempted 84 passes, its possible (and should maybe even be the assumption) that Pittman's breakout last year was more to do with Minshew than anything Pittman himself did.

I mean, if you really wanna look at (and I'm not saying its meaningful data as its such a small sample size) Josh Downs outproduced Pittman in Richardson's last 2 starts.

Downs could be the solid #2 in this offense. Like I mentioned before ARich really liked working with Downs early in camp. They hit it off. Everyone is forgetting about Downs. His only issue is he's banged up a lot.

 

[travdogg]

I think both things can be true:

Adonai Mitchell is the most talented WR on the Colts.

Adonai Mitchell is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order, at least as a rookie.

Do you think he’s more talented than Pittman?

I think its on the table. I think Pittman is a good, but not great WR, who has benefitted from being the only game in town.

We really have little to go on, as Richardson only attempted 84 passes, its possible (and should maybe even be the assumption) that Pittman's breakout last year was more to do with Minshew than anything Pittman himself did.

I mean, if you really wanna look at (and I'm not saying its meaningful data as its such a small sample size) Josh Downs outproduced Pittman in Richardson's last 2 starts.

Downs could be the solid #2 in this offense. Like I mentioned before ARich really liked working with Downs early in camp. They hit it off. Everyone is forgetting about Downs. His only issue is he's banged up a lot.

Its potentially a really good offense, and one that doesn't really use a TE or #2 RB.

 

[BassNBrew]

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

Best rebuttal ever to your statement above

The bolded statement above said I get it. Adam's excellent article has been a foundation feature on the site. But I still like to see someone make a case for a player outside of ADP. Which is actually what Adam is suggesting.

I bet if you ask 10 people, at least 7 would take "worship at of ADP and never get outside the box" as a condescending statement or at least a poke at their GM skills.

 

[Joe Bryant]

To be sure, my life is much much easier if we never write an article talking about a player outside his ADP range. Nobody ever yells at me for having a player ranked where all the other sites do.

And I fully get some GMs worship at the alter of ADP and never get outside the box.

Best rebuttal ever to your statement above

The bolded statement above said I get it. Adam's excellent article has been a foundation feature on the site. But I still like to see someone make a case for a player outside of ADP. Which is actually what Adam is suggesting.

I bet if you ask 10 people, at least 7 would take "worship at of ADP and never get outside the box" as a condescending statement or at least a poke at their GM skills.

If that's the case, I communicated poorly. I apologize.

You're a long time poster here and I've always assumed a good GM.

I do find the consensus thinking tied to ADP not much fun. I've always seen one of the primary joys of Fantasy Football to be getting outside the box of conventional wisdom and looking for values that go against the crowd.

No doubt, following ADP is the safest way. And from a pure game theory angle, a winning way to play as Adam has said for years. I'm just not as tied to it as some.

And especially, as it relates to this point, I don't want to tie our Staffers to it. I could save a lot of money and headaches and just post ADP rankings. But that's not the business I want to have.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Love and appreciate the analysis and talking points though; thanks for sparking the conversation! It's a deserved one to have.

Thank you. I love it too. I don't agree with Zareh and our bottom line Footballguys Rankings will not agree right now, but I like that he's thinking in different ways about players and willing to take a stand and back it up with his reasoning.

To me, that's the foundation of what I want this forum to be. Thanks for being part of that discussion.

 

[Big Nate]

Love and appreciate the analysis and talking points though; thanks for sparking the conversation! It's a deserved one to have.

Thank you. I love it too. I don't agree with Zareh and our bottom line Footballguys Rankings will not agree right now, but I like that he's thinking in different ways about players and willing to take a stand and back it up with his reasoning.

To me, that's the foundation of what I want this forum to be. Thanks for being part of that discussion.

I think the key is to be flexible and take in all information and be willing to pivot. Whether it is ADP and the bar swinging one way or the other. One of the terms we hear is don't hate the player, hate the price. At some point a player becomes a value - which gets me to my point on Mitchell.

Pre-NFL draft I saw him going around pick 1.07-08 as the 4th WR off the board. At that price I was out. Now he's going around 2.05+ as the 9th or 10th WR off the board. A price I'd be much more willing to pay. Now I'm starting to like the idea of where he is going and if he hits he was a great pick.

The last few mocks I have done he has gone:

2.05 (SF)
2.08 (1QB) - what a value!
2.10 (SF)
2.04 (1QB)

These are prices I like and I'd be back in on AD. I struggled paying the pre-NFL draft prices.

 

[TripItUp]

Adonai seems to be settling in mid 2nd round...Which is about where I'd take him.

Priced about right IMHO, but I'll be watching preseason closely on him. Adonai has a wide range of outcomes and a Josh Gordon comp is something to keep your eye on at a minimum.

 

[BassNBrew]

Adonai seems to be settling in mid 2nd round...Which is about where I'd take him.

Priced about right IMHO, but I'll be watching preseason closely on him. Adonai has a wide range of outcomes and a Josh Gordon comp is something to keep your eye on at a minimum.

Adonai like to smoke day and night?

 

[markrc99]

Adonai seems to be settling in mid 2nd round...Which is about where I'd take him. Priced about right IMHO, but I'll be watching preseason closely on him. Adonai has a wide range of outcomes and a Josh Gordon comp is something to keep your eye on at a minimum.

If the content below is accurate but Mitchell applies himself, perhaps his upside is that of DeSean Jackson? But if not, then his floor may be Albert Connell, at best. I have no experience in dynasty, but I think I'd try to find a way to get one the blue-chip prospects in this draft.

"... route running currently lacks focus and consistency, but agility and burst out of breaks will not be an issue. ... Intensity can fluctuate from game to game. ... Needs to keep routes on time with better efficiency and finish. ... Doesn’t play with aggression or sustain when asked to run block." - NFL Draft Tracker

"Goes on auto-pilot & coasts through his routes when the ball isn't coming his way. Lets his focus drift as a blocker. Body language & head movement don't sell his routes or set up defenders. Has a hitch coming out of his stance that slows down his route... Doesn't play up to his size... Too reliant on letting passes into his frame. ... Hot & cold player who will worry scouts with his energy." - Lindy's

"... Most peripherals and analytics reflect poorly on him. There's a serious lack of consistent per-snap production via yards per route run or yards after the catch. While Mitchell's 4.34-second 40-yard dash time graded out as elite, his game speed doesn't always depict a true "burner." ... relies on one particular release package. Effort when not primarily involved in the play wanes." https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/draft...raft-scouting-report-texas-wr-adonai-mitchell

"Effort is a big question; he doesn’t engage fully in blocks and takes a lot of routes off. ... Not an impressive run blocker; it’s partially due to effort but also due to technique." https://www.stampedeblue.com/2024/4/27/24142111/adonai-mitchell-full-scouting-report

"Doesn’t always play to his elite quantified 4.34 pace on the vertical plane. ... Effort sometimes wanes late in reps when tracking deep balls against physical coverage. ... It’s ultimately up to what each team needs and how they intend to use their WR targets to decipher whether or not Mitchell is a fit. There’s also the question of inconsistent effort and how teams feel about his ability to maximize his output on a down-to-down basis." https://www.profootballnetwork.com/adonai-mitchell-draft-scouting-2024/

 

[TripItUp]

If the content below is accurate but Mitchell applies himself, perhaps his upside is that of DeSean Jackson? But if not, then his floor may be Albert Connell, at best. I have no experience in dynasty, but I think I'd try to find a way to get one the blue-chip prospects in this draft.

"... route running currently lacks focus and consistency, but agility and burst out of breaks will not be an issue. ... Intensity can fluctuate from game to game. ... Needs to keep routes on time with better efficiency and finish. ... Doesn’t play with aggression or sustain when asked to run block." - NFL Draft Tracker

"Goes on auto-pilot & coasts through his routes when the ball isn't coming his way. Lets his focus drift as a blocker. Body language & head movement don't sell his routes or set up defenders. Has a hitch coming out of his stance that slows down his route... Doesn't play up to his size... Too reliant on letting passes into his frame. ... Hot & cold player who will worry scouts with his energy." - Lindy's

"... Most peripherals and analytics reflect poorly on him. There's a serious lack of consistent per-snap production via yards per route run or yards after the catch. While Mitchell's 4.34-second 40-yard dash time graded out as elite, his game speed doesn't always depict a true "burner." ... relies on one particular release package. Effort when not primarily involved in the play wanes." https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/draft...raft-scouting-report-texas-wr-adonai-mitchell

"Effort is a big question; he doesn’t engage fully in blocks and takes a lot of routes off. ... Not an impressive run blocker; it’s partially due to effort but also due to technique." https://www.stampedeblue.com/2024/4/27/24142111/adonai-mitchell-full-scouting-report

"Doesn’t always play to his elite quantified 4.34 pace on the vertical plane. ... Effort sometimes wanes late in reps when tracking deep balls against physical coverage. ... It’s ultimately up to what each team needs and how they intend to use their WR targets to decipher whether or not Mitchell is a fit. There’s also the question of inconsistent effort and how teams feel about his ability to maximize his output on a down-to-down basis." https://www.profootballnetwork.com/adonai-mitchell-draft-scouting-2024/

Right, so in a nutshell those faults are likely correctable. You can't teach the physical tools Adonai has.

 

[markrc99]

Right, so in a nutshell those faults are likely correctable. You can't teach the physical tools Adonai has.

Given that so much of what's there is attitude-based, yeah, poof & it's gone! I think landing spot is excellent, but this is a team that features balance. Gotta believe the organization has done its homework & that there's a good chance they'll extract his upside.

 

[BassNBrew]

Went WR80 in the FBG Survivor draft. For reference that was in between Eli and Keaton Mitchell overall and Burks and Tutu at WR.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I hope he doesn't come back to bite me but I passed him up a few times around the 12/13/14 pick range. How many pass attempts are really being split up amongst three receivers, two of which have already proven to be target hogs. I think he's going to be more useful to the Colts as a great deep threat while Pittman works the intermediate and Downs works the shorter areas of the field. They have legitimate options on all three levels which is going to keep defenses honest. So-- good for Indy, not good for Mitchell being much more than a 5-6 target per game guy IMO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

A WR2 in Redraft '24?
He's gonna land somewhere in the 13-20/25 range?
I think the bigger question is ARich starting and completing games and being able to carry at least 2 WRs in FF

Seems like a lot has to happen for this to turn into reality
Rookie WRs have a rough go of it in the NFL