Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
FYI this has not been updated through week 6 yet (I'm waiting to hear from Doug about Sanu's scoring).
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2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)
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- Start date
sweaty_swami
Footballguy
Not sure if this is helpful, but by my count, there are 4 entries that would drop below the cutoff line if Sanu's points were dropped from 29 to 28. Here are the entry numbers:
100087
105030
107374
111621
This would of course push the first 4 out above the cutoff line (actually 5 due to ties):
103593
105266
106315
108886
110090
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
Only 5,000 left.
I have Sanu but beat the cut by 30, so I think I'm safe.
Week #9 & #10 will tell a lot about the strong teams. Huge bye weeks. (6 teams on a bye each week)
I've been doing well even without AP, Megatron & Kyle Rudolph. Crazy football season. Hope you're all enjoying it
I have Sanu but beat the cut by 30, so I think I'm safe.
Week #9 & #10 will tell a lot about the strong teams. Huge bye weeks. (6 teams on a bye each week)
I've been doing well even without AP, Megatron & Kyle Rudolph. Crazy football season. Hope you're all enjoying it
Marauder
Footballguy
WR is the one position I do have a solid philosophy on: Take two studs and a bunch of cheap guys with upside. This year I took Dez, DT, Benjamin, Wheaton, Mike Williams, Malcom Floyd, Quick, John Brown and Sanu. That is the position that has kept me in this thing.Tennessee_ATO said:
RB is the position that I have never been able to figure out. I've tried just about every strategy and none of them have worked for me. Next year I might just load up on a bunch of cheap backups figuring that some of them will be starters by the time we get halfway through the year.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I have both and advanced. 
sweaty_swami
Footballguy
I share your WR philosophy. My RB philosophy this year was buy only 3 RBs, all studs, and count on 2 of them to stay healthy and produce. I figured my WRs would cover my flex spots most of the time. In general, one needs 2 RBs to produce at stud level to make a run in this contest, and it's such a crapshoot to find a mid-range guy who's going to step up, so I stuck with studs.
My 3 are Forte, Bernard, and AP (oops)....but then broke my own rule and added Crowell in the 11th hour. Hooray!
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Too many posts to quote on the subject of my proclamation about 3 QBs being a must.
I never said you had to spend a fortune to roster 3 QBs. You always have to be smart allocating your limited dollars. That said, rostering only 2 QBs creates at a minimum 2 very dicey weeks, and probably more. It only takes 1 bad week to be eliminated, and the fact that you have monster scores every other week becomes irrelevant real quick when your QB1 is Eli'ing and your QB2 is sitting on 156 and 1 TD with a 17 point lead at halftime. And that doesn't even take into account injuries. Guys like Rivers are great, until they aren't. He's good for 2-3 low scoring games a year at a minimum. Maybe you survive it and all's well. As I said, it only takes 1 though.
I spent $32 at QB-- $3 more than I wanted. I wanted to roster guys w/ reasonable floors and the possibility of a big score on any given week. I went w/ Romo, Rapelsburger, and Flacco. Thus far the Cowboys haven't followed the script I envisioned: down 14 before halftime every week. Regardless, all 3 of those guys are bad plays w/ just 2 QBs as they can all lay an egg any given week. They can all also go 300 and 4 at any given time.
I get the idea that slow and steady won't win, but high highs and low lows won't win either.
Most of us don't blink at carrying 6 or even 7 RBs. True, those guys can slot in at your flex, but we're willing to drop $3 on a longshot there or at WR and not think twice about it. Why not at QB?
I never said you had to spend a fortune to roster 3 QBs. You always have to be smart allocating your limited dollars. That said, rostering only 2 QBs creates at a minimum 2 very dicey weeks, and probably more. It only takes 1 bad week to be eliminated, and the fact that you have monster scores every other week becomes irrelevant real quick when your QB1 is Eli'ing and your QB2 is sitting on 156 and 1 TD with a 17 point lead at halftime. And that doesn't even take into account injuries. Guys like Rivers are great, until they aren't. He's good for 2-3 low scoring games a year at a minimum. Maybe you survive it and all's well. As I said, it only takes 1 though.
I spent $32 at QB-- $3 more than I wanted. I wanted to roster guys w/ reasonable floors and the possibility of a big score on any given week. I went w/ Romo, Rapelsburger, and Flacco. Thus far the Cowboys haven't followed the script I envisioned: down 14 before halftime every week. Regardless, all 3 of those guys are bad plays w/ just 2 QBs as they can all lay an egg any given week. They can all also go 300 and 4 at any given time.
I get the idea that slow and steady won't win, but high highs and low lows won't win either.
Most of us don't blink at carrying 6 or even 7 RBs. True, those guys can slot in at your flex, but we're willing to drop $3 on a longshot there or at WR and not think twice about it. Why not at QB?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Because every year this contest has been in existence a 2 QB team has won.
Seems like any decent QB has a floor of about 10 pts. Add in one td and you have close to 15 pts. That 3rd QB has to have a good day to clear the floors of the other two QBs. I play a ton of bb leagues and have looked at this angle for years. If you hit on your top QB, your second QB generally only nets you 20-40 pts. A 3rd QB would be even less.
I fell for the bait this year and took 3 with McCown being the 3rd. I cut Andre Williams for him. I've been suffering with only one RB score when Williams could have been posting a second score.
Bruce Leroy
Footballguy
Good post.maf005 said:
I spent $40 on QB (Rodgers / RIvers / Bortles). I agree you MUST have a good QB to continue advancing & win it all. Also agree with the TE, although my biggest TE is Kyle Rudolph. I've been hanging in there. Also went with RB handcuffs (Lacy, Starks, Harris) then used best value backup backs (Jeremy Hill, Hyde, Andre Williams, Blue & Cunningham). Also have AP = 0. WR = Mega, then KB, Sanu, Denarius, Hunter & Floyd. TE = Kelce, Wright, Rodgers, Myers and aforementioned Kyle R. Agree with Def. & K. 2 each is plenty & 3 Max to try & get those huge weeks. I spent my money on QB/RB/WR/TE instead of another K/Def
QB 3 $40
RB 9 $101
WR 6 $57
TE 5 $36
PK 2 $8
DST 2 $8
Tot 27 $250
FWIW, I like the idea of carrying 3 QBs, Ks and DEFs but just couldn't make it jive without much more effort than I was willing to spend. Ended up with three Ks but lost Freese due to ineffectiveness.
The dead $ of Rice/Pierce/Boykin hurts, and only have 1 "start" from JStew/Moore/TWright/NYJets.
Maybe they should have a second chance/second half contest, too?
The dead $ of Rice/Pierce/Boykin hurts, and only have 1 "start" from JStew/Moore/TWright/NYJets.
Maybe they should have a second chance/second half contest, too?
Luckily I've got both Bortles and Sanu.
Sanu would also make a better QB than what a good number of teams are presently trotting out as starters.
Saint
Footballguy
I'm also a big fan of the 3 QB, 3 PK, and 3 D.
Somehow I am still alive in this thing after losing some key pieces.
QB: Wilson / Tannehill / Bortles ($28) - Used: 3 of 3
RB: McCoy / Rice / MJD / Ingram / Stewart / White - Used: 6 of 6. Yes, took a 0 from Rice in Week 5. This week should be interesting.
WR: White / Colston / Jennings / Matthews / Smith / Benjamin / Sanu - Used 7 of 7. Smith, Benjamin and Sanu have been $$$.
TE: Cameron / Rudolph / Wright / Celek - Used: 4 of 4
PK: Scobee / Zuerlein / Freese / Walsh - Used: 3 of 4. Didn't want $4, somehow screwed that up.
DEF: KC / CAR / MIA - Used: 2 of 3
Averaging 11.5 pts per week from my defense and 12.7 pts from the kicker.
Ironically I have used almost every position (25 of 27).
Somehow I am still alive in this thing after losing some key pieces.
QB: Wilson / Tannehill / Bortles ($28) - Used: 3 of 3
RB: McCoy / Rice / MJD / Ingram / Stewart / White - Used: 6 of 6. Yes, took a 0 from Rice in Week 5. This week should be interesting.
WR: White / Colston / Jennings / Matthews / Smith / Benjamin / Sanu - Used 7 of 7. Smith, Benjamin and Sanu have been $$$.
TE: Cameron / Rudolph / Wright / Celek - Used: 4 of 4
PK: Scobee / Zuerlein / Freese / Walsh - Used: 3 of 4. Didn't want $4, somehow screwed that up.
DEF: KC / CAR / MIA - Used: 2 of 3
Averaging 11.5 pts per week from my defense and 12.7 pts from the kicker.
Ironically I have used almost every position (25 of 27).
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Doug checked and revised Sanu's score to 28 points, and updated the FBG results accordingly.
Everything on my site should now be current through week 6, sorry for the delay.
Everything on my site should now be current through week 6, sorry for the delay.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Code:
QB_Ct Entries Alive Surv Rate1 269 55 20.4%2 7391 2559 34.6%3 5334 1988 37.3%4 994 331 33.3%5 191 59 30.9%6+ 91 9 9.9%Tot 14270 5001 35.0%
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jdkapow
Footballguy
Cool. I'll send out the awards and notable team info early tomorrow morning, if people are still interested in seeing it.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I look forward to reading it every week.
Das Boot
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Please, keep doing it. I love reading it. I am sure once I am booted from the contest I will still come back weekly to read your updates.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
jdkapow
Footballguy
Awards and notable teams of the week.
Strongest Living Team: Just like last week, there are four teams averaging 200+, but three of those teams have changed, with only Entry 102658 repeating. The strongest overall team now is Entry 108599, averaging around 204.5.
Strongest Dead Team: No dead teams in the top 100. Da Bears00 (Entry 112965) is highest at 108, averaging 189 ppw.
Keep Your Day Job Award: Wow, Entry 100869 (a 15-QB team) has been dominating this category, but scored over 100 last week. The new champion of futility is Entry 108654, averaging just under 81 ppw. And wouldn't you know it, Entry 108654 is a 16-QB team. Hmm, I wonder i
Safest Team: We've dropped below the 50-point threshold here. Entry 113708 has cleared the cutline by over 49 points every week. Last week's leader, Irish Bombers, is still alive but dropped into the 170s this week.
Just Skating By Award: We've crossed the 10-point threshold here, but the leader hasn't changed. Bloody Nine (Entry 107224) cleared the cutline by 12.7 this week, marking their best performance to date.
Icarus Award: Flying Eagle, Entry 102617, was flying high indeed, in 63rd place through 5 weeks, before crashing to earth this week with 118 points. The lack of Brees and Graham and a bad week from Julio couldn't be overcome by DeMarco Murray and Kelvin Benjamin.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: earless (Entry 111779) was eliminated in Week 1 but has averaged 186.5 since then.
A couple new categories:
Steady Eddie Award: Nacca (Entry 106132) has scored between 177 and 183.35 every week, for a contest-lowest 2.3 standard deviation. I actually thought I'd rate pretty well in this category, since 5 of my scores are within 7 points of each other, but my one lower week knocked me down all the way to 2312th.
Bipolar Award: Tiglet (Entry 107528) is the living team with the highest standard deviation, at 42. Their low score, 153, is actually pretty good. They got this award thanks to the ridiculous 262 they put up in week 5.
Notable Teams:
QBs: hankd (Entry 103966) is still alive with 9 QBs. The other five 9-QB teams are dead, as are all six 8-QB teams.
RBs: Okay, this is getting boring. For the third week in a row, no change: three of the original six 12-RB teams are still around.
WRs: Yawn. Same as last week. We're down to one 13-WR team, Zorro (Entry 102255).
TEs: Zzzzzz. Same as the last three weeks: three teams with 7 TEs survive.
PKs: Snore. 12-kicker guy (Entry 111066) survives again.
DEFs: Not one change in any of these categories. The last team with 8 defenses, Entry 113411, is still with us.
And me, you ask? I had my best week yet, at 192.9, despite having only 2 RBs in play and one of those being Jacquizz Rodgers. I moved up to 417th overall.
More to come later...
Strongest Living Team: Just like last week, there are four teams averaging 200+, but three of those teams have changed, with only Entry 102658 repeating. The strongest overall team now is Entry 108599, averaging around 204.5.
Strongest Dead Team: No dead teams in the top 100. Da Bears00 (Entry 112965) is highest at 108, averaging 189 ppw.
Keep Your Day Job Award: Wow, Entry 100869 (a 15-QB team) has been dominating this category, but scored over 100 last week. The new champion of futility is Entry 108654, averaging just under 81 ppw. And wouldn't you know it, Entry 108654 is a 16-QB team. Hmm, I wonder i
Safest Team: We've dropped below the 50-point threshold here. Entry 113708 has cleared the cutline by over 49 points every week. Last week's leader, Irish Bombers, is still alive but dropped into the 170s this week.
Just Skating By Award: We've crossed the 10-point threshold here, but the leader hasn't changed. Bloody Nine (Entry 107224) cleared the cutline by 12.7 this week, marking their best performance to date.
Icarus Award: Flying Eagle, Entry 102617, was flying high indeed, in 63rd place through 5 weeks, before crashing to earth this week with 118 points. The lack of Brees and Graham and a bad week from Julio couldn't be overcome by DeMarco Murray and Kelvin Benjamin.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: earless (Entry 111779) was eliminated in Week 1 but has averaged 186.5 since then.
A couple new categories:
Steady Eddie Award: Nacca (Entry 106132) has scored between 177 and 183.35 every week, for a contest-lowest 2.3 standard deviation. I actually thought I'd rate pretty well in this category, since 5 of my scores are within 7 points of each other, but my one lower week knocked me down all the way to 2312th.
Bipolar Award: Tiglet (Entry 107528) is the living team with the highest standard deviation, at 42. Their low score, 153, is actually pretty good. They got this award thanks to the ridiculous 262 they put up in week 5.
Notable Teams:
QBs: hankd (Entry 103966) is still alive with 9 QBs. The other five 9-QB teams are dead, as are all six 8-QB teams.
RBs: Okay, this is getting boring. For the third week in a row, no change: three of the original six 12-RB teams are still around.
WRs: Yawn. Same as last week. We're down to one 13-WR team, Zorro (Entry 102255).
TEs: Zzzzzz. Same as the last three weeks: three teams with 7 TEs survive.
PKs: Snore. 12-kicker guy (Entry 111066) survives again.
DEFs: Not one change in any of these categories. The last team with 8 defenses, Entry 113411, is still with us.
And me, you ask? I had my best week yet, at 192.9, despite having only 2 RBs in play and one of those being Jacquizz Rodgers. I moved up to 417th overall.
More to come later...
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Go here: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/currquerier/index.php
On the right side (or bottom, depending on your browser width) where it says "Show all player stats for week..." just pick Week 1 and submit. It'll display a page with every player and their price (and some other stats).
jdkapow
Footballguy
And now the players:
Eliminated Players: Come on, won't somebody just die already?! Four players--Dion Lewis, Charles Sims, David Ausberry and Tiquan Underwood--are down to their last living owner, but nobody's been eliminated yet. Underwood, with 17 original owners, owns the lowest survival rate in the contest at 5.6%.
The Biggest Mistake: The same contenders here as last week. Matt Prater is down to a 12.4% survival rate (32/258, $7), while Calvin Johnson is at 18.1% (285/1578, $31).
The Survivor: No surprise that it's still DeMarco Murray. 68.1% of teams with Murray are still alive. The only other player over 60% is...
The Bargain: Mohamed Sanu, who cost his owners only $3, has a 60.2% survival rate and is owned by over 1200 living teams.
The Parasite: David Nelson of the Jets. He's scored a total of 7.9 points, never more than 2.7, and yet 50% of his 32 teams are alive (we're down to 35% overall for the contest).
The Martyr: It's getting harder to identify good candidates here. Trent Richardson, maybe? He's scored more than 8 every week, but only 22% of his teams are alive.
One new category:
The Zero: There are 31 players in the contest who haven't scored a single point this season. Of these, Brandon Bostick has the best survival rate at 37.1%. The king of the Zeros, though, is right behind him: Cody Latimer is owned by 2469 teams, of which 824 (33.4%) are still hanging in there. (Dis)honorable mention: Ray Rice, he who cost $18 for his complete lack of production, is still owned by 561 living teams, for a survival rate of 30.9%.
Eliminated Players: Come on, won't somebody just die already?! Four players--Dion Lewis, Charles Sims, David Ausberry and Tiquan Underwood--are down to their last living owner, but nobody's been eliminated yet. Underwood, with 17 original owners, owns the lowest survival rate in the contest at 5.6%.
The Biggest Mistake: The same contenders here as last week. Matt Prater is down to a 12.4% survival rate (32/258, $7), while Calvin Johnson is at 18.1% (285/1578, $31).
The Survivor: No surprise that it's still DeMarco Murray. 68.1% of teams with Murray are still alive. The only other player over 60% is...
The Bargain: Mohamed Sanu, who cost his owners only $3, has a 60.2% survival rate and is owned by over 1200 living teams.
The Parasite: David Nelson of the Jets. He's scored a total of 7.9 points, never more than 2.7, and yet 50% of his 32 teams are alive (we're down to 35% overall for the contest).
The Martyr: It's getting harder to identify good candidates here. Trent Richardson, maybe? He's scored more than 8 every week, but only 22% of his teams are alive.
One new category:
The Zero: There are 31 players in the contest who haven't scored a single point this season. Of these, Brandon Bostick has the best survival rate at 37.1%. The king of the Zeros, though, is right behind him: Cody Latimer is owned by 2469 teams, of which 824 (33.4%) are still hanging in there. (Dis)honorable mention: Ray Rice, he who cost $18 for his complete lack of production, is still owned by 561 living teams, for a survival rate of 30.9%.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Thank jdkapow. Now the contest may continue.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Suggested tracking lowest $ spent by position after qb1/rb1/wr1. Example my rbs after rb1 $32. Call these cheapskate awards.
Rick James
Footballguy
where to find overall rankings?
heckmanm
Footballguy
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
It'd be interesting to split the 3 QB entries by those with Bortles and those without him
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Me
QB: $11
RB: $48
WR: $54
TE: $19
PK: $6
DEF: $6
Put in the inverse, my top player at each position totals $106
-QG
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
just an observation, the top 10 teams in the contest through week 6 have Demarco Murray or Matt Forte or both. no surprise with these two being the top performers each week. Forte has a bye in week 9, Murray has a bye in week 11. bodes better for Murray owners I think, Forte owners will need to get past week 9.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I think it's the opposite. There are more teams (and better teams) on bye in week 9 than in week 11. Plus the cut % is lower in week 9 than it is in week 11. It'll be much easier for Forte owners to stay alive through his bye than it will be for Murray owners to survive his bye two weeks later IMO.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
You're probably right on that, but I'll playbthe part of the Devil's Advocate. What percentage of the 1000 teams entering week 11 will own Murray? Could be as high as 45% if he keeps performing like he has been. If so, the impact of having him on bye may not be as significant as being one of 20% who have Forte on bye in week 9.
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
here's the list of players who have at least 800 owners left out of the 5001 entries.
Figured it'd be fun folks to see how many of these they have. Only 9 out of my 26 players are on this list, which is fewer than usual for me I think.
(ones I own have a *. No that you care )
QBs
Cutler 2458
Roethlisberger 840
Romo 804
Rivers 801
RBs
Lacy 1303 *
Ingram 1204 *
McCoy 985
Fred Jackson 894
Andre Williams 874
J Stewart 861
Forte 811
WRs
K Benjamin 3182 *
Ant Brown 1777
Dez 1217
Sanu 1202 *
J Hunter 1170
E Sanders 1038
Wheaton 1011 *
Latimer 835
Coradelle 813
TEs
Kelce 1657
Ertz 1624 *
J Graham 1485
Heath 899
PKs
Vinatieri 1386
Wash 1169
Zuerlein 1031
Bailey 906
Freese 848 *
S Graham 812
Defs
Carolina 1462
Houston 1044
Pittsburgh 908 *
-QG
Figured it'd be fun folks to see how many of these they have. Only 9 out of my 26 players are on this list, which is fewer than usual for me I think.
(ones I own have a *. No that you care
)QBs
Cutler 2458
Roethlisberger 840
Romo 804
Rivers 801
RBs
Lacy 1303 *
Ingram 1204 *
McCoy 985
Fred Jackson 894
Andre Williams 874
J Stewart 861
Forte 811
WRs
K Benjamin 3182 *
Ant Brown 1777
Dez 1217
Sanu 1202 *
J Hunter 1170
E Sanders 1038
Wheaton 1011 *
Latimer 835
Coradelle 813
TEs
Kelce 1657
Ertz 1624 *
J Graham 1485
Heath 899
PKs
Vinatieri 1386
Wash 1169
Zuerlein 1031
Bailey 906
Freese 848 *
S Graham 812
Defs
Carolina 1462
Houston 1044
Pittsburgh 908 *
-QG
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I have 3 kickers. Bryant, Vinateri, Gano, and they all have "out?" next to their names for next week.
Is there some crazy injury news that I don't know about? Or is this just a glitch?
Is there some crazy injury news that I don't know about? Or is this just a glitch?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Gotta be a glitch. I saw that next to my 3 PK (only 1 you have) and stressed a bit myself for a second.VikingFrog said:
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
lol, i panicked a bit last night when i saw this too. looks like all kickers are like this, no worries.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
funny, that was the logic I thought why murray owners had it better. more players on bye means more teams are at risk depending on their roster make up. I for one have half my roster on bye that week. if they have more than Forte on bye, that would be a huge chunk of their normal scoring. on the other hand as you stated this should also mean a lower cut line, i didn't consider it from that angle. good stuff.Ignoratio Elenchi said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
Just looking at the post above, it seems having Dez and Romo out will be more significant. Assuming the Murray owners didn't triple up on cowboys, that should help them.
RB Adrian Peterson MIN $30 0.00 RB Reggie Bush DET $23 0.00 RB Knowshon Moreno MIA $13 0.00 RB Shonn Greene TEN $6 0.00 RB LeGarrette Blount PIT $6 0.00
Two down, three to go. Although, Bush and Greene are both injured and were of no help to me last week.
My #1 RB is gonna be Blount before this thing is over. Damn
Two down, three to go. Although, Bush and Greene are both injured and were of no help to me last week.
My #1 RB is gonna be Blount before this thing is over. Damn
fightingillini
Footballguy
I disagree.
You have to gamble somewhere. I go as cheap as possible and pick 2 QBs that have good complimenting schedules. I have done very well in this contest with just 2 QBs. This year, I did spend $3 on Bortles to go along with Cutler and Roethlisberger. You need as much money allocated to RBs, WRs and TEs to really win it.
I think 3 QBs is generally a waste. You end up paying like $10-15 dollars for possibly a 5 point bump a few weeks of the year. That said I did take Bortles as a 3rd QB this year because I loved his upside at that price. He is a solid insurance policy but I also think he will have a monster game or two this season as well.
