2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (1 Viewer)

[FUBAR]

Well boys I am out.

4000 CUTOFF 131.10

4027 103460 130.65

Best of luck to all those still hanging in there.

dude, that sucks.

 

[FUBAR]

The 41 of us Denard Robinson owners are liking what's going on with him

Down to at least 40 Denard owners left. This one is out with 129.9. So close and TE trio of Graham/Eifert/Wright got me a goose. Earliest exit ever.

Enjoy it while it lasts, good luck.

Had him picked for many iterations. Kicking myself pretty hard for thinking in the end "I won't need Denard, let's go with Fitzgerald and Brown at WR, early bye week, Fitz will bounce back and Brown mitigates some risk".

 

[Lascelle]

My team's still rolling along swimmingly but I'm getting somewhat concerned. This was the worst week yet for me on the QB front despite getting points from all 3 of my starters. My sorry lot of defenses from the Panthers & Bucs clearly seem like misfires. Moreno was a colossal bust and is now on the IR and I'm now depending on Benny Cunningham of all people for regular weekly contributions on the RB front. This hardly seems like a team that can sustain itself much beyond the next couple weeks.

Golden Tate and Jordy Nelson have been carrying my team (combining for almost 50 points this week). I suspect their shared Week 9 bye will be my team's swan song.

 

[maf005]

Julio Jones and Steve Smith have counted every week thus far. Stedman Bailey hasn't yet. Still alive despite almost zero rb points for 5 weeks running

 

[James Daulton]

Still comfortably alive even with this dreadful RB crew.

Ray Rice
C.J. Spiller
Ahmad Bradshaw
Mark Ingram
Andre Williams
Jonathan Stewart
BenJarvus Green-Ellis


This group will due me in eventually though.

 

[QuizGuy66]

This guy was knocked out when Roethlisberger took those kneel downs

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/112498.php

-QG

 

[heckmanm]

Oof

 

[FUBAR]

Julio Jones and Steve Smith have counted every week thus far. Stedman Bailey hasn't yet. Still alive despite almost zero rb points for 5 weeks running

can no longer access the o.ffense site at work, but how many Bailey owners are still alive? I took him in large part hoping he'd provide an edge later in the year with a low population of owners.

How many Graham owners remain?

 

[BroadwayG]

52 out of 202 Bailey owners alive

1121 out of 4046 Graham owners

 

[CalBear]

Skinned by! I reached exactly #4000 when Antonio Brown had a catch on Pittsburgh's last drive. The cutline moved up a little with the next few plays, but Foster's TD got me back over.

Slight consolation for the fact that I lost my real league game by 0.5 points, with Foster's TD leaving me just short.

Fred Jackson going out could hurt, but at least I got Ingram back.

 

[Rick James]

Graham owner, still alive despite the -0- this week. I need him to start producing though or I'm a goner. my only other stud is Demaryius.

QB Drew Brees

QB Blake Bortles
RB Shane Vereen
RB Benny Cunningham
RB Reggie Bush
RB Khiry Robinson
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (oof)
RB Donald Brown (oof)
WR Demaryius Thomas
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Cordarrelle Patterson
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Cody Latimer (oof)
WR Markus Wheaton (oof)
TE Jimmy Graham
TE Timothy Wright
PK Shayne Graham
PK Randy Bullock
PK Mike Nugent
DST Buffalo Bills
DST Houston Texans
DST Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

This is the point when I really start paying attention to this contest to each year (if I'm still alive). Until this point I don't think stats tell us much about optimum roster composition, etc. I mean, how many garbage rosters were there at the beginning? The elimination of those really doesn't tell us anything helpful.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

This guy was knocked out when Roethlisberger took those kneel downs

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2014/112498.php

-QG

Man, that REALLY sucks.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Size Count Alive Surv Rate18 5667 1176 20.80%19 1920 472 24.60%20 1519 440 29.00%21 1169 384 32.80%22 1013 342 33.80%23 742 276 37.20%24 538 212 39.40%25 457 177 38.70%26 329 122 37.10%27 249 108 43.40%28 218 99 45.40%29 177 76 42.90%30 272 116 42.60%http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/owned.phpTop 500 Overall Entries: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/overall.php

 

[jdkapow]

Hmm, Jonathan Stewart shows up with 7.7, but nfl.com has him with 7.2 (there appears to be 1 carry for 5 yards that may have changed).

 

[CalBear]

Hmm, Jonathan Stewart shows up with 7.7, but nfl.com has him with 7.2 (there appears to be 1 carry for 5 yards that may have changed).

Yes, stat correction moved the carry from Stewart to Ogbonnaya.

 

[Rick James]

Size Count Alive Surv Rate18 5667 1176 20.80%19 1920 472 24.60%20 1519 440 29.00%21 1169 384 32.80%22 1013 342 33.80%23 742 276 37.20%24 538 212 39.40%25 457 177 38.70%26 329 122 37.10%27 249 108 43.40%28 218 99 45.40%29 177 76 42.90%30 272 116 42.60%http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/owned.phpTop 500 Overall Entries: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/overall.php

larger rosters might be surviving at a better rate, but look at the top 500 entries-- the average roster size is 21 (20.9 to be exact).

 

[QuizGuy66]

Size Count Alive Surv Rate18 5667 1176 20.80%19 1920 472 24.60%20 1519 440 29.00%21 1169 384 32.80%22 1013 342 33.80%23 742 276 37.20%24 538 212 39.40%25 457 177 38.70%26 329 122 37.10%27 249 108 43.40%28 218 99 45.40%29 177 76 42.90%30 272 116 42.60%http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/owned.phpTop 500 Overall Entries: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/overall.php

larger rosters might be surviving at a better rate, but look at the top 500 entries-- the average roster size is 21 (20.9 to be exact).

- average roster size alive is 21.2 and the average roster size to start the contest was 20.4

That top 500 includes 23 dead guys who have an average rank of 19.7

-QG

 

[msudaisy26]

Is the top 500 for overall or just teams still alive?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Is the top 500 for overall or just teams still alive?

It's overall (the elimination week is displayed in the table). I thought it would be fun/informative to include teams that were eliminated but are otherwise doing great.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Teams still alive:

Size Count AvScore Avg SD 200+ wks18 1176 169.02 18.70 0.5419 472 169.09 17.96 0.4820 440 168.45 18.01 0.4521 384 169.06 17.42 0.4122 342 168.15 17.64 0.4423 276 169.18 17.99 0.4724 212 168.26 17.28 0.3625 177 168.35 17.03 0.3726 122 168.48 17.39 0.3627 108 168.18 17.01 0.3628 99 168.22 17.37 0.3329 76 170.64 16.63 0.4230 116 168.06 17.56 0.41Tot 4000 168.78 17.93 0.46So yes, while smaller rosters are surviving at a much lower rate, the ones that are still alive are averaging more points and have greater variance than their larger counterparts, which will be useful in the final 250.Here's the same table, but for all entries (live and dead):

Size	Count	AvScore	Avg SD	200+ wks18	5667	153.14	23.93	0.2619	1920	154.58	23.06	0.2520	1519	156.35	22.42	0.2621	1169	157.67	21.96	0.2622	1013	158.02	21.45	0.2923	742	159.45	21.29	0.2824	538	160.31	20.93	0.2625	457	159.32	20.48	0.2426	329	159.85	21.06	0.2527	249	161.46	20.05	0.2528	218	160.80	20.22	0.2629	177	161.67	19.95	0.2730	272	159.99	20.56	0.31Tot	14270	155.84	22.65	0.26

 

[joffer]

need Ingram to turn it on. him and Cunningham seem to be my best hopes at RB.

The Luck/Hilton week 10 bye is going to be tough if I get that far.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

larger rosters might be surviving at a better rate, but look at the top 500 entries-- the average roster size is 21 (20.9 to be exact).

Size	Top 500	All Alive18	30.6%	29.4%19	12.4%	11.8%20	9.6%	11.0%21	13.0%	9.6%22	8.2%	8.6%23	6.8%	6.9%24	4.6%	5.3%25	3.8%	4.4%26	3.0%	3.1%27	1.8%	2.7%28	1.6%	2.5%29	2.6%	1.9%30	2.0%	2.9%Avg 	21.0	21.2

This is the distribution of the top 500 live teams (the top 500 on my site includes all teams alive and dead) vs. the distribution of all live teams. It is skewed a little bit to the smaller rosters but not by too much.

 

[QuizGuy66]

need Ingram to turn it on. him and Cunningham seem to be my best hopes at RB.

The Luck/Hilton week 10 bye is going to be tough if I get that far.

Yup week 10 is the one I'm sweating as well. No Luck, Morris, White , Jennings, Walsh, and Minnesota Defense. And of course Freese is on a perma-bye. The other 19 will have to step it up.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

larger rosters might be surviving at a better rate, but look at the top 500 entries-- the average roster size is 21 (20.9 to be exact).

Size Top 500 All Alive18 30.6% 29.4%19 12.4% 11.8%20 9.6% 11.0%21 13.0% 9.6%22 8.2% 8.6%23 6.8% 6.9%24 4.6% 5.3%25 3.8% 4.4%26 3.0% 3.1%27 1.8% 2.7%28 1.6% 2.5%29 2.6% 1.9%30 2.0% 2.9%Avg 21.0 21.2This is the distribution of the top 500 live teams (the top 500 on my site includes all teams alive and dead) vs. the distribution of all live teams. It is skewed a little bit to the smaller rosters but not by too much.

Though of course there's the ultimate conundrum which is "what if the larger roster sizes were as popular as the smaller sized ones"

-QG

 

[mphtrilogy]

as bad as lacy has been he has actually been serviceable for me at rb with cunningham

 

[reflint]

Hmm, Jonathan Stewart shows up with 7.7, but nfl.com has him with 7.2 (there appears to be 1 carry for 5 yards that may have changed).

Yes, stat correction moved the carry from Stewart to Ogbonnaya.

If this gets changed I will be #4001 at 130.95. Knew I was in trouble last night when Tomlin decided to throw the ball even after HOU used its last TO.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Hmm, Jonathan Stewart shows up with 7.7, but nfl.com has him with 7.2 (there appears to be 1 carry for 5 yards that may have changed).

Yes, stat correction moved the carry from Stewart to Ogbonnaya.

If this gets changed I will be #4001 at 130.95. Knew I was in trouble last night when Tomlin decided to throw the ball even after HOU used its last TO.

Are you sure the line doesn't move down to meet you?



-QG

 

[reflint]

Hmm, Jonathan Stewart shows up with 7.7, but nfl.com has him with 7.2 (there appears to be 1 carry for 5 yards that may have changed).

Yes, stat correction moved the carry from Stewart to Ogbonnaya.

If this gets changed I will be #4001 at 130.95. Knew I was in trouble last night when Tomlin decided to throw the ball even after HOU used its last TO.

Are you sure the line doesn't move down to meet you?



-QG

I see 4 teams that drop: 111039 at 131.45, 107710 at 131.35, C McCann at 131.35, and 100810 at 131.20. Group at 131.00 would be last in by my eyeball check.

 

[jdkapow]

Hmm, Jonathan Stewart shows up with 7.7, but nfl.com has him with 7.2 (there appears to be 1 carry for 5 yards that may have changed).

Yes, stat correction moved the carry from Stewart to Ogbonnaya.

If this gets changed I will be #4001 at 130.95. Knew I was in trouble last night when Tomlin decided to throw the ball even after HOU used its last TO.

Are you sure the line doesn't move down to meet you?



-QG

I see 4 teams that drop: 111039 at 131.45, 107710 at 131.35, C McCann at 131.35, and 100810 at 131.20. Group at 131.00 would be last in by my eyeball check.

Yes, the cutline will be 131 if the correction is made.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im out

Slaps money on table

 

[MarcO]

Size Count Alive Surv Rate18 5667 1176 20.80%19 1920 472 24.60%20 1519 440 29.00%21 1169 384 32.80%22 1013 342 33.80%23 742 276 37.20%24 538 212 39.40%25 457 177 38.70%26 329 122 37.10%27 249 108 43.40%28 218 99 45.40%29 177 76 42.90%30 272 116 42.60%http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/owned.phpTop 500 Overall Entries: http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/overall.php

#51 Week 9 will be the true test for me with Forte, Nelson, and Tate on BYE and then week 11 with Murray and Dez out.

 

[CalBear]

Yes, the cutline will be 131 if the correction is made.

ESPN has it: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/statcorrections?scoringPeriodId=7

Looks like Elias hasn't pushed it out yet.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

For the record, here's my policy on stats:

• I do the live scoring while the games are playing. Once MNF is over I'm no longer updating the stats on my site and have no way of getting stat changes that are made after the games.
• Every Tuesday morning I compare my results to the official FBG results. If they match, I update all the parts of my site to reflect the results for the week and basically "close it out."
• If I find something that doesn't match, I email Doug and either he or I makes the adjustment, depending on which one of us had it right.
• The goal of my site is to reflect the results of the FBG contest, not the final NFL stats. If Elias makes a stat change and FBG doesn't pick it up, then I won't make the change either.

So in this case, for example, I don't know if the FBG results will be updated to reflect the stat change for Jonathan Stewart, and I'm not going to alert Doug to the change. I assume he has some process to deal with stat changes. If he makes a change, I'll update my results. If he doesn't, I won't either.

 

[Papa Schnay]

AP AND RICE GUY CHUGGING ALONG. LOL. How, IDK!

Always root for this sort of entry to stick around

-QG

Just wanted to say Thanks QG.

If I make it 2-3 more weeks, even though I won't win anything, HUGE moral victory making it this far with 2 dead weight players at $48 on the roster producing 0s.

 

[dbc925]

168 with very little chance of an increase tonight. But that would certainly have kept me in it. So, FLuck! *

*my weekly post disparaging Andrew Luck's INT in week 2, costing Adam Vinatieri an easy FG and knocking me out. Will continue to post "FLuck" weekly until I miss the cut again.

I wonder how close I am to being named in the hard luck award?

What entry number are you? I would like to see your team

112060

 

[dancingbones]

Out this past week.

Have fun those still rolling!

 

[Das Boot]

Holy cow, Latimer is active tonight!

 

[BassNBrew]

Looks like a quarter 809 of us have Sanders. That's got to be almost got to be a punch ticket to next week?

Iggy, you got any stats about teams not advancing that had a non-QB player post 39+ points.

not sure where I got the bad info earlier.

 

[Das Boot]

Looks like a quarter of us have Sanders. That's got to be almost got to be a punch ticket to next week?

Iggy, you got any stats about teams not advancing that had a non-QB player post 39+ points.

Oof, a quarter?

That's brutal... to the rest of the field.

 

[DWI]

Gates and Tate a good start to week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Gates and Tate a good start to week.

Sanders and Tate…who needs RBs anyway.

 

[msudaisy26]

Am I the only one having trouble getting the live scoring to load?

 

[Hybrid]

Am I the only one having trouble getting the live scoring to load?

I am as well. Works sometimes after a few refreshes.

 

[msudaisy26]

Am I the only one having trouble getting the live scoring to load?

I am as well. Works sometimes after a few refreshes.

I have probably refreshed it 30+ times and got it to go through 2 times, the one time I tried to put my team in and submit and I never got it through.

 

[joffer]

Miami D

 

[FUBAR]

Miami D

280 happy fin d owners

 

[BassNBrew]

217 with room to improve.

 

[The Duff Man]

128.20 and have Antonio Brown and Morris, both -0. J Graham minus 1.7. Should be OK but expecting a higher cutoff this week.

 

[Hybrid]

In 25th on the Leaderboards this week with Antonio Brown still playing, and Ingram and Graham still to play. Gronk and Foster were fantastic. Who needs Calvin Johnson?