2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[ochawkeye]

450 points scored in the last two weeks but I'm wasting my time paying any attention to this contest at this point unless a hurricane decides to come through in next couple of weeks and move any (or all) of the 49ers, Bills, or Dolphins bye weeks.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Congrats to all the Torrey Smith peeps

And it looks like Birdie made it by a wide margin

-QG

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

On to week 6!

 

[BassNBrew]

Congrats to all the Torrey Smith peeps

And it looks like Birdie made it by a wide margin

-QG

?

 

[BassNBrew]

You think there’s even a snowballs chance 25 pt isn’t a lock?

You asked if there was a chance.  There was.

This isn't a big deal.

I don't think anyone said it would. 

Is this what that was all about?  I think you seriously misunderstood somewhere along the line.

Cut line moved 5.5 pts tonight with 62 pts posted and moved 2.5 pts or so last night.  I said there was a snowballs chance in hell that it would move 25 pts, you said there was a chance.  There was no chance.

What is this about?  It's about people here posting about sweating a 25 pt margin when anyone who's remotely followed this contest or has an ounce of analytical skill knows that a 25 pt margin this week was a lock it up and take to the bank see ya next week.  Really not much different than going into the Drew Brees thread and arguing that Bridgewater should be the starter.  If the guy with 254 points had come in here posting about sweating 100+ point margin, it would have only been a tad more insane then sweating 25 pts this week.

 

[BassNBrew]

I resent that.  Just because I go to the 4:00 early bird special doesn't mean that I got to bed at 7:00.  I like to watch the nightly news and then Pat and Vanna first.  

You can go to bed as soon as you see Smith isn't on the inactive list around 7 tonight

I resent that.  Just because I go to the 4:00 early bird special doesn't mean that I got to bed at 7:00.  I like to watch the nightly news and then Pat and Vanna first.  

Like I said, you advanced as soon as Smith was announced active.

 

[spudgusta]

450 points scored in the last two weeks but I'm wasting my time paying any attention to this contest at this point unless a hurricane decides to come through in next couple of weeks and move any (or all) of the 49ers, Bills, or Dolphins bye weeks.

You do know there is a hurricane headed toward Florida right?

 

[ochawkeye]

You do know there is a hurricane headed toward Florida right?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/91/4c/93/914c9324200ca32bcbdcbe441692d051.jpg

 

[Saint]

146.15

Moved 2.4 points with 39 pts on the board.  Can we use some common sense on the cut line moving 25 pts over SNF/MNF going forward?

Nope.   Need to keep the fear of the turk. 

 

[TheWinz]

Phew!!  Made it past Peyton Barber's bye.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Phew!!  Made it past Peyton Barber's bye.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Cut line moved 5.5 pts tonight with 62 pts posted and moved 2.5 pts or so last night.  I said there was a snowballs chance in hell that it would move 25 pts, you said there was a chance.  There was no chance.

What is this about?  It's about people here posting about sweating a 25 pt margin when anyone who's remotely followed this contest or has an ounce of analytical skill knows that a 25 pt margin this week was a lock it up and take to the bank see ya next week.  Really not much different than going into the Drew Brees thread and arguing that Bridgewater should be the starter.  If the guy with 254 points had come in here posting about sweating 100+ point margin, it would have only been a tad more insane then sweating 25 pts this week.

It was my fault...my bad, I was freaking out

 

[dbc925]

Like I said, you advanced as soon as Smith was announced active.

That is incorrect. He needed 6.5 points to get me in.  It was the TD that put me over.

 

[BassNBrew]

That is incorrect. He needed 6.5 points to get me in.  It was the TD that put me over.

Alex Smith hasn't scored under 6.5 points in almost a decade.  He scored 6 in week 16 of 2010.  If he was playing, you were advancing.  Also if he wasn't playing, the cut likely wouldn't have moved 5.5 points.

Congrats on advancing!

 

[BassNBrew]

It was my fault...my bad, I was freaking out

You weren't freakiing out, you had a legit case to sweat.  Anytime you're on the wrong side of the cut line it's  time.  I was just surprise at the large number of people freaking out when they weren't even remotely in danger.  Just me, but either come here and post how awesome your team did or post your sweat situation...we can offer congrats or in the second situation root you on if it's not going to torpedo our team.  You fell into the later category.

 

[Widbil83]

Made the 149.30 cutoff with a 149.45 

 

[BassNBrew]

Exactly how I feel at this point.  Not gonna win the contest, but other than one week I haven't had much of a sweat so far.  Dalvin Cook is my most expensive player so I'm just hoping all the other Cook owners get knocked out now, and then he can get healthy and go on a tear later in the season.  

Actually you should be hoping for the reverse.  You want Cook owners left alive and the owners of players you don't own out.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Actually you should be hoping for the reverse.  You want Cook owners left alive and the owners of players you don't own out.

My take on uniqueness in this contest has always been that it's vastly overrated.  The fun part of this contest is that what's good for one phase is suboptimal for the other, and vice versa.  Ultimately all I want is for Cook to score a lot of points when I need him to score a lot of points.  But if I did happen to make it to the final 250, it would be great if I was the only Cook owner there.   

 

[BassNBrew]

My take on uniqueness in this contest has always been that it's vastly overrated.  The fun part of this contest is that what's good for one phase is suboptimal for the other, and vice versa.  Ultimately all I want is for Cook to score a lot of points when I need him to score a lot of points.  But if I did happen to make it to the final 250, it would be great if I was the only Cook owner there.   

Agreed.  It would be best for you to have the Cooks owners get knocked out further down the road and based on the performance of their players who are different than yours.

 

[mphtrilogy]

wow, last week, squeezed by by .50, this week landed on the cutoff, onward we go!

 

[matuski]

Cut line moved 5.5 pts tonight with 62 pts posted and moved 2.5 pts or so last night.  I said there was a snowballs chance in hell that it would move 25 pts, you said there was a chance.  There was no chance.

What is this about?  It's about people here posting about sweating a 25 pt margin when anyone who's remotely followed this contest or has an ounce of analytical skill knows that a 25 pt margin this week was a lock it up and take to the bank see ya next week.  Really not much different than going into the Drew Brees thread and arguing that Bridgewater should be the starter.  If the guy with 254 points had come in here posting about sweating 100+ point margin, it would have only been a tad more insane then sweating 25 pts this week.

I don't recall anyone "sweating" it.  Just saying there was a chance (thank you for quoting the repeated attempts to remind you).  You are sweating my posts more than anyone the 25 point cushion.

The line didn't move 25. That doesn't mean the line could not have moved 25.  There was a chance.

Your awful analogies are wonderful though. 

 

[matuski]

wow, last week, squeezed by by .50, this week landed on the cutoff, onward we go!

wow

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't recall anyone "sweating" it.  Just saying there was a chance (thank you for quoting the repeated attempts to remind you).  You are sweating my posts more than anyone the 25 point cushion.

The line didn't move 25. That doesn't mean the line could not have moved 25.  There was a chance.

Your awful analogies are wonderful though. 

About the same chance as you beating Mayweather.

In other words there was no chance it was going to move 25 unless they extended the games to 120 minutes each.

 

[BassNBrew]

wow, last week, squeezed by by .50, this week landed on the cutoff, onward we go!

That's cool.  Win this and that would be the stuff of legends.

 

[Birdie048]

Tre'Quan Smith (my flyer) has the best chance to be used replacing Cooper's dud. 

Tre-Quan Smith was my savior!  Continue on to next week to sweat it again! 

Started last night 15+ under the cut-line....  Brees, T Smith & Lutz swung me to 20+ cut! 

 

[dawhipsaw]

This poor entry (not mine) on the bad side of the cutline due to a single Stafford kneel at the end of the game, tough beat

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/114277.php

 

[lsutigers]

#140 this week - Gurley, Conner, Gordon looking strong at RB. 

Best ball approach at WR not looking so hot with Goodwin, Cole, J. Brown, Dorsett.

R. Freeman, P. Barber, Goodwin, Geiscki, Jonnu Smith never used :(

 

[TheWinz]

Fun stats for teams that made it to week 6...

- 48 teams with only 1 QB, 3 teams with 9 QB's

- 15 teams with only 2 RB's, 2 teams with 12 RB's

- 1 team with only 2 WR's, 1 team with 16 WR's

- 225 teams with only 1 TE, 1 team with 7 TE's

- 461 teams with only 1 K, 2 teams with 9 K's

- 451 teams with only 1 D, 2 teams with 8 D's

Least & most $ spent at each position...

QB - 9 & 104

RB - 36 & 147

WR - 20 & 146

TE - 3 & 85

K - 2 & 36

D - 2 & 53

Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (2253), Dalton (1505), Darnold (1216), Rivers (1209), Goff (1082) - Darnold jumped Rivers this week

RB - Conner (3272), Barber (2875), R. Freeman (2253), Breida (2176), McCaffrey (2019) - Conner jumped Barber this week

WR - Cole (2667), Goodwin (2267), Ross (1809), John Brown (1767), Hill (1250) - no change from last week

TE - Burton (1807), Njoku (1292), Goedert (1189), Gronkowski (907), Hooper (768) - Hooper jumped Eifert this week

K - Fairbairn (1491), Butker (1150), Vinatieri (1114), Lambo (939), Lutz (864) - Butker jumped Vinatieri this week

D - CHI (2084), CLE (1676), MIN (859), LAR (715), JAX (584) - no change from last week

Top 5 teams I hope remain in this contest...

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/109616.php - $53 on defenses, with only 1 QB and 2 RB's

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101917.php - How can you not root for 16 WR's?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105491.php - It takes nads to go with only 2 WR's.  Kudos to a team who has used Barber 3 times

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101870.php - Is there a doctor in the house?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105400.php - He is averaging 41.58 over the line, but can you spot his flaw?

 

[Gottabesweet]

217th place this week, have a bunch of highly owned players.  on to the next!   218 points scored somehow.  RB's are a mess but cleared McCaffrey bye.  8 of 9 WR's have scored for me but they are all junk.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Taysom Hill and Mark Ingram: 3 TDs.

Alvin Kamara: 0 TDs

Alvin Kamara outscored by Royce Freeman: 6.2 vs 5.4

Mason Crosby: leaves 10 points on the table

Bears and Ravens combine for 7 points best ball

Thank you Ryan Griffin for trying to save me, but too little too late.

140 vs 149.3 and out.  Epic.

 

[QuizGuy66]

?

Lol I shouldn't post tired.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Used 23 out of 30 so far.  Hilariously two of the sevent unused are my most expensive QB and 2nd most expensive WR.  $199 out of $250 used.

-QG

 

[Gottabesweet]

$218/250 here.... Barber ($8), Doctson (9) and J. Williams (15) all not used. 

would love that money back.  The fun of the game!

 

[TheWinz]

Used 23 out of 30 so far.  Hilariously two of the sevent unused are my most expensive QB and 2nd most expensive WR.  $199 out of $250 used.

-QG

I have used 24 out of 29 so far.  $208 out of $250 used.  Most expensive WR is still unused, but he isn't a dud just yet (Goodwin).

 

[Brisco54]

I have used 24 out of 29 so far.  $208 out of $250 used.  Most expensive WR is still unused, but he isn't a dud just yet (Goodwin).

I have used 24 of 30 and $209 of $250 so surprisingly close to you.

Here's hoping a lot of Saints based teams get knocked out this week.  Otherwise, they are looking very hard to beat.

 

[Birdie048]

Amazingly I have used 20 of 22 roster spots.  Still have not used Tenn RB D Henry ($21) or ex-Clev PK Zane Gonzalez ($2 - dead money)

Connor ($4) and Julio ($32) have been used all 5 weeks! 

 

[TheWinz]

My most unique at each position...

QB - Ben (775) - used 3 times

RB - Aaron Jones (523) - used 1 time

WR - Ginn (213) - used 1 time

TE - Griffin (289) - used 1 time

K - Sturgis (571) - used 1 time (well, he tied with Lambo in week 2, so I will count it)

D - PIT (565) - used 2 times

 

[ZWK]

My squad is still alive through week 5, despite $47 of Bell+Winston sitting out the first few weeks. I had a close call week 3, but other than that have been putting up about 190 each week. I have used 21/30 players and $171/$250.

Preseason writeup here.

Pos	Player			$	St	SPts
QB	Jameis Winston		$10	0	0.00
QB	Andy Dalton		$6	3	96.35
QB	Josh Allen		$3	1	31.70
QB	Sam Darnold		$3	1	27.40
RB	Todd Gurley		$37	5	128.00
RB	LeVeon Bell		$37	0	0.00
RB	Peyton Barber		$8	0	0.00
RB	Bilal Powell		$7	5	47.90
RB	Chase Edmonds		$3	0	0.00
WR	Antonio Brown		$37	5	102.30
WR	Anthony Miller		$7	0	0.00
WR	Keelan Cole		$7	2	35.60
WR	Michael Gallup		$6	0	0.00
WR	Chris Godwin		$6	3	48.10
WR	John Brown		$6	4	67.20
WR	John Ross		$5	1	13.20
WR	TreQuan Smith		$3	1	26.10
TE	Rob Gronkowski		$26	4	66.80
TE	Jared Cook		$8	4	88.00
TE	Nick Vannett		$3	0	0.00
TE	Ryan Griffin		$3	1	15.50
PK	Zane Gonzalez		$2	1	7.80
PK	Kaimi Fairbairn		$2	1.5	19.80
PK	Cody Parkey		$2	2.5	33.30
PK	Jason Sanders		$2	0	0.00
DT	Washington Redskins	$3	0	0.00
DT	Oakland Raiders		$2	1	16.00
DT	Miami Dolphins		$2	2	19.00
DT	Indianapolis Colts	$2	1	9.00
DT	Cleveland Browns	$2	1	16.00

Breaking things down now by position:

QB
Have: 4 for $22
Used: 3 for $12
Scored: 31 ppg

Dalton off to a strong start, Darnold & Allen each have the starting job and are looking boom-or-bust. My highest-priced guy hasn't cracked the lineup since he spent 4.5 weeks sitting out, but Tampa's passing offense is looking potent and he won the job back quickly. For the amount I spent it's hard to imagine things looking much better on a roster without Mahomes.

RB
Have: 5 for $92
Used: 2 for $44
Scored: 2.0 starters for 35 pts each week

Gurley off to a great start as an every-week starter and my team's MVP. Bilal Powell unfortunately also an every-week starter. RB2 has been my weakest spot with Barber disappointing, David Johnson staying healthy, and Bell holding out. I predicted that Bell would be back by week 5; he could still be my savior if I can last a couple more weeks without him.

WR
Have: 8 for $77
Used: 6 for $64
Scored: 3.2 starters for 59 pts each week

WRs have been solid but I haven't been getting huge weeks from them. A Brown has been an every-week starter and solid WR1, though not quite what I hoped. J Brown has emerged as a nearly-every-week starter and solid WR2. Godwin, Cole, Ross, and TreQuan Smith showing best ball value with some strong weeks. Nothing yet from the other two rookies, but they still have a shot to emerge over the course of the season.

TE
Have: 4 for $40
Used: 3 for $37
Scored: 1.8 starters for 34 pts each week

A bit of a slow start from Gronk. Cook has my 2 highest scoring non-QB games and has been the best value on this roster. Griffin & Vannett looking like nice cheap depth, though they've combined for just 1 start so far.

PK
Have: 4 for $8
Used: 3 for $6
Scored: 12 ppg

Down to just 3 kickers with Gonzalez cut, but the Bears & Texans are looking like kicker-friendly teams.

DT
Have: 5 for $11
Used: 4 for $8
Scored: 12 ppg

The 5 team rotation is getting me solid production, with 4 of them already cracking my lineup.

Bottom line: if Bell comes back strong then this team could be in good shape to compete down the stretch. Though first I'll have to make it through the next 2 weeks, including wk7 when Antonio Brown & Jared Cook join Bell on bye.

 

[TheWinz]

I have used 24 of 30 and $209 of $250 so surprisingly close to you.

Here's hoping a lot of Saints based teams get knocked out this week.  Otherwise, they are looking very hard to beat.

You know who I hope gets knocked out?  All 1242 of the remaining 18-player teams.  Those are the stud-filled teams that are hard to compete with at the end.  No offense to anyone reading this with 18 players.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

You know who I hope gets knocked out?  All 1242 of the remaining 18-player teams.  Those are the stud-filled teams that are hard to compete with at the end.  No offense to anyone reading this with 18 players.

Most of them will get knocked out, that's a certainty.  And historically I think the winner is not usually an 18-person roster (but I might be misremembering).

 

[TheWinz]

Most of them will get knocked out, that's a certainty.  And historically I think the winner is not usually an 18-person roster (but I might be misremembering).

Last year, the top 25 consisted of teams that had everything except 29 players - which is what I have.

 

[apalmer]

Most of them will get knocked out, that's a certainty.  And historically I think the winner is not usually an 18-person roster (but I might be misremembering).

Last year the highest finish for an 18-man roster was 15, but in 2016 an 18-man team won.

 

[cjack]

I've used $205 out of $250, and 21 out of 28 players.  Interestingly, I have one unused player from each category (two for WR), but yet I still feel pretty confident that all of those unused players will get used at some point, with the possible exception of Gallup who just seems like wasted space.  Unused players so far:

Winston (will likely get used at some point now that he's playing, if only for covering bye weeks)

Kerryon Johnson (almost certain he'll get used, but he's just been edged out a couple of times so far)

Gallup (as mentioned, may be wasted, but here's to hoping he somehow finds life later in the season)

E. St. Brown (was basically a $2 throw-in but he almost counted last week, and if injuries continue for GB, he may be useful)

H. Hurst (just starting to see playing time after injury, may need him given my lack of talent at TE)

Lambo (almost certain to be used at some point, but haven't needed him yet and he was my most expensive kicker)

Dallas D (have to figure they'll get used during bye weeks or somewhere down the road)

 

[TheWinz]

I've used $205 out of $250, and 21 out of 28 players.  Interestingly, I have one unused player from each category (two for WR), but yet I still feel pretty confident that all of those unused players will get used at some point, with the possible exception of Gallup who just seems like wasted space.  Unused players so far:

Winston (will likely get used at some point now that he's playing, if only for covering bye weeks)

Kerryon Johnson (almost certain he'll get used, but he's just been edged out a couple of times so far)

Gallup (as mentioned, may be wasted, but here's to hoping he somehow finds life later in the season)

E. St. Brown (was basically a $2 throw-in but he almost counted last week, and if injuries continue for GB, he may be useful)

H. Hurst (just starting to see playing time after injury, may need him given my lack of talent at TE)

Lambo (almost certain to be used at some point, but haven't needed him yet and he was my most expensive kicker)

Dallas D (have to figure they'll get used during bye weeks or somewhere down the road)

Technically, you used Hurst in week 2 

 

[cjack]

Technically, you used Hurst in week 2 

Haha, yes, I debated whether I should count that as him being used.  

 

[stubby]

I squeaked through with a 150.25 this week. Outlook going forward:

Ryan, Mahomes, Winston----really like this trio, assuming Winston doesn't muck it up

Zeke, McCaffrey, Freeman, Clement----now past McCaffrey's bye week, hoping to get a small boost from Clement now that Ajayi is on IR

Diggs,Goodwin, Godwin,Cole,Amendola, Gallup, Allison, Ross, Dorsett----holy crapfast! at least I have 9 to cobble together 2 or 3 scores each week

Burton, Njoku, Howard, Griffin----Griffin literally saved my bacon this week; glad Burton's bye is over; hopefully OJ will become viable again at some point

Parkey,Fairbairn,Rosas---Parkey now through the bye and Rosas suprisingly doesn't suck

Bears,Steelers--Steelers came thru big on the Bears bye week

Conclusion---again, not nearly enough horses to do any real damage but it's fun to hang on while it lasts

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Last year the highest finish for an 18-man roster was 15, but in 2016 an 18-man team won.

If my notes are accurate, this is how many players the winner has had each year:

• 2017 - 23
  
• 2016 - 18
  
• 2015 - 28
  
• 2014 - 24
  
• 2013 - 18* (2-week final round)
  
• 2012 - 25
  
• 2011 - 18
  
• 2010 - 25
  
• 2009 - 24* (Rosters had to be 20-24 players)
  
• 2008 and prior all rosters were 22 players. 
  

So since 2010 when the rosters were expanded to allow 18-30 players, 3 of 8 winners have been 18 players, 4 had 23-25 players, and 1 had 28 players.  In 2009 the largest possible roster won as well.  There's maybe some merit to the idea that an 18-player roster that survives to the end is stronger than a larger roster, but it hasn't really played out that way in our small sample of actual contest seasons (as opposed to, say, the idea that larger rosters will have a higher survival rate over the course of the season, which does always consistently happen).  

 

[jdoggydogg]

Made the cut by only 12 points. My RBs stink. But now that Mixon is healthy, I have a shot. Problem is, I don't think Miami is smart enough to make Kenyon Drake a bellcow - and I was relying on Drake as a cheap RB2.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Advanced to this point thanks to my WR core. Built this team to rely on M.Thomas and D.Adams. I will go as far as they can take me.

$238/250 used. Only 3 players unused Foles, Gallup, Hollister.

 

[TheWinz]

If my notes are accurate, this is how many players the winner has had each year:

• 2017 - 23
  
• 2016 - 18
  
• 2015 - 28
  
• 2014 - 24
  
• 2013 - 18* (2-week final round)
  
• 2012 - 25
  
• 2011 - 18
  
• 2010 - 25
  
• 2009 - 24* (Rosters had to be 20-24 players)
  
• 2008 and prior all rosters were 22 players. 
  

So since 2010 when the rosters were expanded to allow 18-30 players, 3 of 8 winners have been 18 players, 4 had 23-25 players, and 1 had 28 players.  In 2009 the largest possible roster won as well.  There's maybe some merit to the idea that an 18-player roster that survives to the end is stronger than a larger roster, but it hasn't really played out that way in our small sample of actual contest seasons (as opposed to, say, the idea that larger rosters will have a higher survival rate over the course of the season, which does always consistently happen).  

I checked, and you are correct about the above numbers.  Also, I disagree that 2010 thru 2017 isn't a large enough sample size.  The reason is because only 1 team had a large roster, 3 had the minimum, and 4 had medium-sized rosters.  18, 18, 18, 23, 24, 25, 25, and 28, when all those teams could have had 30.  87.5% of teams were small or medium, and 12.5% were large.  If the numbers were more spread out from 18 to 30, I would agree.  In the end, I think you are more likely to make the finals with a large roster, but the winner is more likely to be the lucky studly team that avoided injury.