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Benching a MNF player to ensure the win (1 Viewer)

ericttspikes

ericttspikes

Footballguy
I'm .2 ahead going into MNF vs. the first place team. A win puts us tied for the lead at 8-5. He's done and I have a questionable ETN going. They only way I can lose is if ETN gets tackled for a loss and then exits the game. That seems pretty unlikely, but suppose it could happen, especially since he's banged up already. Wondering if it makes more sense just to take ETN out if active and take the W now. Never done that before. Dumb idea?
 
ericttspikes said:
I'm .2 ahead going into MNF vs. the first place team. A win puts us tied for the lead at 8-5. He's done and I have a questionable ETN going. They only way I can lose is if ETN gets tackled for a loss and then exits the game. That seems pretty unlikely, but suppose it could happen, especially since he's banged up already. Wondering if it makes more sense just to take ETN out if active and take the W now. Never done that before. Dumb idea?
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it makes sense from that perspective. but it is worth noting that .2 of a point is within the range of potential stat corrections for all players.

so if you bench your guy and a stat correction happens and you are suddenly losing by 0.1 of a point you'd be reallly sad.

in my opinion the odds of this happening are about the same as the odds of your player getting negative points. both can happen. so it is your call. if the lead was closer to a half point then I'd be more inclined to make the benching. my opinion.
 
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
 
Gally said:
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
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I'm pretty sure our rules would allow it, but good point about stat corrections. Not IDP, but I have seen offensive stats change sometimes. Thanks.
 
ericttspikes said:
Gally said:
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
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I'm pretty sure our rules would allow it, but good point about stat corrections. Not IDP, but I have seen offensive stats change sometimes. Thanks.
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Now if it was Zach Wilson with negatives for turnovers that might be a different story....hahaha
 
ericttspikes said:
Gally said:
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
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I'm pretty sure our rules would allow it, but good point about stat corrections. Not IDP, but I have seen offensive stats change sometimes. Thanks.
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it actually happens a lot. you can go into yahoo (and probably most other ones) and there is an area where they post the stat corrections for the week.

there was one play I saw yesterday (cant remember who it was for some reason) where it was called a forward pass for some decent yardage but it might be changed to a run. in that case the passing yardage for that QB will go down if the reviewers decide it was a run. and if it is PPR stats for the RB will drop because he got one fewer catches. (yardage should be a wash)
 
ericttspikes said:
Gally said:
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
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I'm pretty sure our rules would allow it, but good point about stat corrections. Not IDP, but I have seen offensive stats change sometimes. Thanks.
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I would absolutely start ETN.

Thee chances of a statistical correction costing you the game > the chances of ETN getting a carry for a loss & exiting the game.

He could fumble though. ;)

I’d still start him. Too close in your margin of victory to risk a stat change.
 
If you were up more than 0.2 I would but as others have said STAT corrections do happen. If ETN played yesterday you would have started him so might as well let it play out. There is risk of a fumble/injury but you can't predict that so let it run.

If you were up 2+pts I would consider it. I have seen it in our leagues, especially if they have a DST still to go that has been known to get negative points at times.

Good luck to you this week.
 
This comes up a few times in our fantasy community. My stance? You start your best guys. Don't get cute. You play to win the game. You also play to not only win the game, but to destroy your opponent by as many points possible.
 
Gally said:
ericttspikes said:
Gally said:
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure our rules would allow it, but good point about stat corrections. Not IDP, but I have seen offensive stats change sometimes. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Now if it was Zach Wilson with negatives for turnovers that might be a different story....hahaha
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Right, as if a team starting Zach Wilson could be in a position to win their matchup

(Actually, last week I went into MNF trailing with my Addison to her Dobbs. After his fourth INT I managed to pull ahead, but the late TD to Hockenson clinched her victory)
 
A game between me and my dad earlier this year double-flipped on stat corrections. First I won by about 0.2. In the middle of the night I saw it flipped to him winning by less than a point I think. The next morning I had won by 1.6. PPR can really change things if a near lateral flips from lateral to pass or vice versa.

Long story short, I would just start Etienne. The odds are just so slim that he gets you negative.
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Gally said:
ericttspikes said:
Gally said:
If your rules allow it then you can do it. Is is it IDP? Stat corrections are real and can change outcomes. It took a win and made it a tie just last week in one of my leagues. Also, do point totals matter for tie breakers? That could be another reason to risk it. If it's me, I play ETN and don't think twice.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure our rules would allow it, but good point about stat corrections. Not IDP, but I have seen offensive stats change sometimes. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Now if it was Zach Wilson with negatives for turnovers that might be a different story....hahaha
Click to expand...
Right, as if a team starting Zach Wilson could be in a position to win their matchup

(Actually, last week I went into MNF trailing with my Addison to her Dobbs. After his fourth INT I managed to pull ahead, but the late TD to Hockenson clinched her victory)
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I had a similar situation, not my own team but a team whose first-round pick I owned (hoping to get #1 pick or close to it). He was trailing by 6 points, and his Dobbs was all that was left. His deficit got bigger and bigger through the game. Then boom, over, by 0.2 points. Though I held out hope for that fifth pick.
 
Heisenberg23 said:
bush league imo --- you put your optimal lineup in to score the most points
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The goal isnt to score the most points in HTH leagues.... the goal is to win the game. The vast majority of the time those things are the same but not always. Having said that I think in this instance the chance of a stat change is greater than the chance of an ettienne injury after a tackle for a loss. I say play him.
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
I don't buy the moral argument at all. You do what gives you the best chance to win. And I think non-IDP stat corrections, particularly those that swing match-ups, are incredibly rare.

All that said, I'd still probably start Etienne
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Exactly. It is like taking a knee at the end of a game. Or going down before you reach the end zone so you can run out the clock. Nothing moral about having to go for the highest score. It is all about getting the W and making the playoffs. Do what optimizes your chances of winning the league outside of collusion.
 
Back in the day, I had a 3-point lead and my QB still to play in a night game. My opponent had no one left, and it never really dawned on me that I could pick up a 3rd string QB off waivers that had practically no chance of playing and win automatically. But I didn't do that, my QB threw 2 quick picks without any completions (-2 points per INT) and broke his thumb getting hit on the second one and was out for the game. That win cost me a playoff spot (had enough total points to win the tiebreaker, just not enough wins). The chances of that happening were slightly above zero, and I doubt I would actually bench my QB in a regular season game if that ever came up again. But I'd do it in a playoff game.
 
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I did this one and only one time. I was up by 2 points and I had my defense yet to play. In our league, Defense is the one position that can get negative points on occasion. Dallas got me -1 this past week vs. Seattle for example.

For position players, I feel like if the guy is expected to get multiple touches, negative points is highly unlikely. Far more likely to have a stat correction, especially in PPR where what was viewed initially as a lateral could go to a forward pass and it's an instant +1.
 
What do you think the odds are of ETN getting tackled for a loss or fumbling and then leaving the game?
What do you think the odds are of a stat correction costing you the game if you sit ETN?
What do you think the odds are of ETN fumbling or losing yardage but overcoming it the rest of the game?
Do total points scored factor into your league for determining playoff position or a tiebreaker?
So many questions.
Me? I start him and cheer for every yard gained.
 
Here is my question - who would you sub in for him? Some guy on a bye? That is lame

Putting in some other player of lesser goodness is not lame
 
Fat Nick said:
I did this one and only one time. I was up by 2 points and I had my defense yet to play. In our league, Defense is the one position that can get negative points on occasion. Dallas got me -1 this past week vs. Seattle for example.

For position players, I feel like if the guy is expected to get multiple touches, negative points is highly unlikely. Far more likely to have a stat correction, especially in PPR where what was viewed initially as a lateral could go to a forward pass and it's an instant +1.
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The only position we have with more than a remote possibility of negative points is head coach. But our league has penalties for not starting a head coach equal to losing by 25 if a coach is available (at least one almost always is); losing by ten if every coach is either taken or on bye.
 
Rubi said:
What do you think the odds are of ETN getting tackled for a loss or fumbling and then leaving the game?
What do you think the odds are of a stat correction costing you the game if you sit ETN?
What do you think the odds are of ETN fumbling or losing yardage but overcoming it the rest of the game?
Do total points scored factor into your league for determining playoff position or a tiebreaker?
So many questions.
Me? I start him and cheer for every yard gained.
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agreed. chances of a stat correction is likely larger than the odds of Etienne going negative on points. Especially considering the small margin.

if we ignore the moral high ground for one moment, from a mathematical perspective for me to even consider benching the player the margin of victory would need to be more than 1 point. it is not often that a stat correction is much larger than this. if you look at the stat corrections your fantasy league has, most of your stat corrections are less than a half point. (usually a run/catch credited for 6 yards gets changed to 5 yards upon review) They can be larger but its incredibly rare. As your margin of victory if you sit him is 0.2 of a point, I do think (if you ignore the morality of the move) the right call is to play him anyways. if your margin of victory was a bit higher than this (say 1.7 of a point) that would be enough to account for 1 reception in PPR with yardage of 7 yards on the catch or 17 total yards on a run or 34 yards on a pass. At that point, I'd suggest the odds of the negative points due to a fumble etc may be greater than the odds of a stat correction large enough to alter your outcome. I cannot say for sure but it would be close.

I also agree with a prior poster, this is really more of an issue if your last remaining player to start is your defense as defenses can give up negative points in high scoring games. Dallas got me -1 points this week.

but with a bellcow back? odds are likely in the range of 0.001% or something of the like. Certainly not zero. but probably something you can live with.
 
If you knew all stat corrections were accounted for, then it's perfectly fine to bench that MNF player. It's similar to Westbrook headed for the endzone late in the 4th & take a knee at the 1. Don't give your opponent a longshot chance of beating you. A first play fumble + injury can happen. Eliminate the chance.

That said, I'd start the player if there is any chance of a stat correction. Those happen all the time & would make you sick to lose from benching someone.
 
-OZ- said:
Your optimal lineup is the one that gives you the best chance to win.

That said, a brief look at stat changes this year: https://www44.myfantasyleague.com/2023/site_news?L=70143&CATEGORY=Official+Statistics+Changes
Almost all IDP, but not all.
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There are a lot that aren't IDP though that can flip it 0.5 to 1.0 or more. Maybe a toss to the RB is reviewed and it is determined it was a forward pass (+ppr or what was a pass is determined a lateral). It happens. Week 8 I went to bed Sunday night thinking I lost that week's match-up by 0.4. Woke up Monday morning with a win by 0.2 so it definitely happens.

Like I said before since his match-up is very close I would start the player and let the chips fall.
 
Heisenberg23 said:
bush league imo --- you put your optimal lineup in to score the most points
Click to expand...
Not bush league at all if you are going for the win where a fumble or 2 and an injur could cost you the win. If benching the player guarantees the win then no issues. They are playing to win and benching the player satisfies that.
 
Fat Nick said:
I did this one and only one time. I was up by 2 points and I had my defense yet to play. In our league, Defense is the one position that can get negative points on occasion. Dallas got me -1 this past week vs. Seattle for example.

For position players, I feel like if the guy is expected to get multiple touches, negative points is highly unlikely. Far more likely to have a stat correction, especially in PPR where what was viewed initially as a lateral could go to a forward pass and it's an instant +1.
Click to expand...
100% bench the DST in a case like this. Negative points is very real with DST.
 
Ray_T said:
chances of a stat correction is likely larger than the odds of Etienne going negative on points. Especially considering the small margin.

if we ignore the moral high ground for one moment, from a mathematical perspective for me to even consider benching the player the margin of victory would need to be more than 1 point. it is not often that a stat correction is much larger than this. if you look at the stat corrections your fantasy league has, most of your stat corrections are less than a half point. (usually a run/catch credited for 6 yards gets changed to 5 yards upon review) They can be larger but its incredibly rare. As your margin of victory if you sit him is 0.2 of a point, I do think (if you ignore the morality of the move) the right call is to play him anyways. if your margin of victory was a bit higher than this (say 1.7 of a point) that would be enough to account for 1 reception in PPR with yardage of 7 yards on the catch or 17 total yards on a run or 34 yards on a pass. At that point, I'd suggest the odds of the negative points due to a fumble etc may be greater than the odds of a stat correction large enough to alter your outcome. I cannot say for sure but it would be close.

I also agree with a prior poster, this is really more of an issue if your last remaining player to start is your defense as defenses can give up negative points in high scoring games. Dallas got me -1 points this week.

but with a bellcow back? odds are likely in the range of 0.001% or something of the like. Certainly not zero. but probably something you can live with.
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Etienne is banged up coming in. There is a chance of reinjury. This isn't a low possibility we are talking about here.

But again, in this case I think the OP needs the points to protect from a possible stat correction but this is by no means a lock by playing him.
 
Heisenberg23 said:
bush league imo --- you put your optimal lineup in to score the most points
Click to expand...
I won't go this far as to say it's Bush League, but it's definitely messing with your fantasy karma to do this.

And as others have suggested, stat corrections happen and if you're within 0.2 points you don't wanna mess with it.

Just play him.
 
ericttspikes said:
I'm .2 ahead going into MNF vs. the first place team. A win puts us tied for the lead at 8-5. He's done and I have a questionable ETN going. They only way I can lose is if ETN gets tackled for a loss and then exits the game. That seems pretty unlikely, but suppose it could happen, especially since he's banged up already. Wondering if it makes more sense just to take ETN out if active and take the W now. Never done that before. Dumb idea?
Click to expand...
I think you just play him. Even if that incredibly remote possibility happens, you'll have a fantasy football story for the ages, and everyone loves a good story about your fantasy football team.
 
Lehigh98 said:
ericttspikes said:
I'm .2 ahead going into MNF vs. the first place team. A win puts us tied for the lead at 8-5. He's done and I have a questionable ETN going. They only way I can lose is if ETN gets tackled for a loss and then exits the game. That seems pretty unlikely, but suppose it could happen, especially since he's banged up already. Wondering if it makes more sense just to take ETN out if active and take the W now. Never done that before. Dumb idea?
Click to expand...
I think you just play him. Even if that incredibly remote possibility happens, you'll have a fantasy football story for the ages, and everyone loves a good story about your fantasy football team.
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I wish more people would tell me about their fantasy teams
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Lehigh98 said:
ericttspikes said:
I'm .2 ahead going into MNF vs. the first place team. A win puts us tied for the lead at 8-5. He's done and I have a questionable ETN going. They only way I can lose is if ETN gets tackled for a loss and then exits the game. That seems pretty unlikely, but suppose it could happen, especially since he's banged up already. Wondering if it makes more sense just to take ETN out if active and take the W now. Never done that before. Dumb idea?
Click to expand...
I think you just play him. Even if that incredibly remote possibility happens, you'll have a fantasy football story for the ages, and everyone loves a good story about your fantasy football team.
Click to expand...
I wish more people would tell me about their fantasy teams
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Back in a summer of ‘97, or wait, maybe it was ‘98, I was trying to decide whether to start Isaac Bruce or Jimmy Smith. Well, as luck would have it, I went with Jimmy, who scored 3 points after tearing his taint on a hook and ladder play, and Isaac went off for 22 on my bench.

We used to tabulate scoring with a copy of USA Today & an abacus back then, and well, long story short I wound up losing by .2 points.

Those were the days.
 
100% play him if total points is a tiebreaker in your league
100% remove him if you are 100% sure there are no stat corrections and total points is not a tiebreaker
50% remove him if you are 50% sure there are no stat corrections and total points is not a tiebreaker
100% do not let anyone say it's bush league or karma
 
There is absolutely nothing “wrong” with it. It is not a smart play, but not illegal. I would PREFER my opponent did this.
 
aren't total points a tiebreaker in most leagues, i've lost and won that tiebreaker by a handful of points before, I would just play him and get what points I could. Chance of negative points in this case is extremely low.
 
Total points is also my end all goto trash talk to other owners during the season. An owner might have a better record then me but if I got more points I never let him forget.
 
I would NEVER do this....it's too close to the "I want the top seed so lets start my scrubs" line of thinking. Start what you think wil score you your highest score. Anything else is garbage
 
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