Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
First Adrian Gonzalez, now Carl Crawford. wow
http://www.nesn.com/2010/12/report-carl-cr...th-red-sox.html
http://www.nesn.com/2010/12/report-carl-cr...th-red-sox.html
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Carl Crawford to Boston Red Sox (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ron_Mexico
- Start date
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
what a terrible dealboubucarow
Footballguy
Roberto Clemente averaged a HR every 90 or so at bats until age 24, about 45 AB/HR until age 30, and then 25 or so AB/HR through age 35. Clemente is the most similar batter to 28 year old Crawford according to baseball reference. Crawford averaged over 100 AB/HR to age 21 and has been about 45 AB/HR up until the last season at age 28.Just one player but it isn't unknown for speed guys to add power as they mature as a player. Also, Clemente was a 350 OBP guy until age 28 and became 375+ OBP guy the rest of his career.Matthias said:I don't know if I'd call it terrible but it's not the kind of player I'd want to make a $20MM per year and almost $150MM man. Crawford turns 30 this summer and most of his game is based off of his speed. So in 3 years as he starts slowing down, you still owe $80MM to a guy who is pretty much an empty average? Yuck.Would've been much better to go the route of picking up a player like Willingham in the $3MM - $6MM range.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
A team that already had the second-highest payroll in the league will add Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford to their payroll this offseason and still be spending less than the Yankees, even if they don't sign Cliff Lee. If anything this underscores just how ridiculous the Yankees' spending has been and continues to be.
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wilked
Footballguy
I can definitely see how it looks ludicrous to fans of other teams, especially Tampa fans. I do think there is clearly a distinct difference in spending between the Yankees and Red Sox, but I agree there is not a big difference between Tampa / Sox and Tampa / Yankees
Premier
Footballguy
Sucks, but the Rays have won the East two out of the last three years, so they know how to compete with these guys. I'll still put their SP up against anybody.
Baseball's system is so ridiculous that you just have to laugh at it, or not watch. I'm choosing option A for now, but it is really hard to care.
Baseball's system is so ridiculous that you just have to laugh at it, or not watch. I'm choosing option A for now, but it is really hard to care.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The difference in reactions between this and the Werth 7 year deal for 13 million less are telling. Clearly baseball execs see what they want to see based on the team and the GM. Obviously Crawford is the more valuable asset by a semi-decent margin, but the difference between the two is not so pronounced that you can argue for one being a "brilliant" move and the other being horrendous. Their WAR figures were within a single win in 2009 and two wins in 2010, even with Werth inexplicably taking a negative fielding value for that season. You could argue that after you incorporate the necessary premium the Nats had to pay to draw a premium free agent to a perennial loser, the deals are pretty similar.
the moops
Footballguy
3 wins is a big number.
the moops
Footballguy
He doesn't turn 29 until half way through the 2011 season.
wilked
Footballguy
Agreed...Market value seems to be about $5MM per win above replacement
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
From the dugout while DH'ing?
Workhorse
Footballguy
He's going to DH for 19 games against Boston?
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Said on ESPN that he turns 30 next season.
Balco
Footballguy
Whats up with Montero, defensively. I could be confusing him with another teams prospect, but I heard he isn't that great defensively. Although anything is better than Posada.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
If he's healthy, I'd bet yes. Its looking like a three catcher situation next year. And I'm not saying that Boston won't wreak havoc on the paths, but I don't expect him to get more than 30 games behind the dish next year, and they will pick those as judiciously as possible ie. against plodders if possible. And that if anything is a nod and a sign of respect to Boston, and I'm not saying Montero and Cervelli/Martin will be great at containing their speed game, I just know they'll be better than Jorge's statuesque game.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
August 5, 1981, for what its worth. Turns 30 next August by my math.And an interesting article from baseball musings:
http://baseballmusings.com/?p=63064
5Rings
Lurker
no f'n way. this is madnessThanks for the memories CC...glad you got yours...can't wait to see the first Rays cap in the HOF.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Assuming they don't trade Ellsbury.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
He turns 30 this year. He's only 2 months older than me.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
So let's assume 3 wins per two years for the first four years, and maybe as much as two wins a year the last three as the age difference becomes more relevant, although that's probably too much. Even with those assumptions, that's ten wins, so fifty million dollars. Figure once you subtract the premium the Nats had to pay to draw a premium free agent to a perennial loser, the deals are maybe thirty million apart. And remember, those values assume Werth is a negative value defender (he isn't) and account for the difference in ages. Thirty million apart, market value says maybe $50 million was the right number, although I probably overestimated their WAR difference. Clearly one deal is still better- I wouldn't argue otherwise. But one deal is "genius" and the other is so horrible it stuns GMs into disbelief? Over twenty million dollars' difference over seven years? Seems to me that the teams involved color those perceptions quite a bit, as does the fact that they don't like a shakeup of the status quo. They're fine with the Yankees and the Red Sox throwing around giant sums, but not anyone else.
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Balco
Footballguy
Would you say he was the Devil Ray that put them on the map? If I remember, he got called up at the very beginning of the rebuild.I also remember when he was drafted. Believe he turned down a scholarship from Nebraska to play option quarterback.Thanks for the memories CC...glad you got yours...can't wait to see the first Rays cap in the HOF.
Eephus
Footballguy
If you buy Wade Boggs enough beers and chicken, he'll change his cap for youWould you say he was the Devil Ray that put them on the map? If I remember, he got called up at the very beginning of the rebuild.I also remember when he was drafted. Believe he turned down a scholarship from Nebraska to play option quarterback.Thanks for the memories CC...glad you got yours...can't wait to see the first Rays cap in the HOF.
I'll go on record as a Red Sox fan and saying I am not over the moon thrilled with this signing.
The only thing that's a saving grace about it I guess is they didn't deplete their farm system to acquire him.
Is Crawford very good, hell yes. Will it be nice having him in the lineup the next 3-4 years, hell yes.
The thing is, these long ### contracts wear very thin towards the end of them. Carlos Lee in Houston is an effing noose hanging around the organizations neck. And he's only owed 37 mil over the next 2 years. No GM in their right mind would dream of trading for him.
Crawford will be 30 next year. Is 34, 35, 36, 37 year old Carl Crawford going to earn $20mil/year? Not sure I think so. He's the second highest paid outfielder or all-time now, not sure I believe he's the second best outfielder in the game right now, but he's up there.
That being said, I think its way better to see him on the Red Sox for the next few years than the Yankees.
The only thing that's a saving grace about it I guess is they didn't deplete their farm system to acquire him.
Is Crawford very good, hell yes. Will it be nice having him in the lineup the next 3-4 years, hell yes.
The thing is, these long ### contracts wear very thin towards the end of them. Carlos Lee in Houston is an effing noose hanging around the organizations neck. And he's only owed 37 mil over the next 2 years. No GM in their right mind would dream of trading for him.
Crawford will be 30 next year. Is 34, 35, 36, 37 year old Carl Crawford going to earn $20mil/year? Not sure I think so. He's the second highest paid outfielder or all-time now, not sure I believe he's the second best outfielder in the game right now, but he's up there.
That being said, I think its way better to see him on the Red Sox for the next few years than the Yankees.
Eephus
Footballguy
Carlos Lee isn't a very good comparison (or a very good ballplayer).
Megalomaniac
Footballguy
Say what you want about this deal, but his numbers at AL East parks like Fenway, Yankee Stadium, & Tropicana for the last 2 years have been outstanding. I think he hit over .320 at Fenway last year.
I wasn't trying to compare the two......he just came into my mind. We can revisit this in 5 years though. Don't like these long deals very much at all. Make the player earn it. 4 year max contract, ftw. That being said, better sign an offensive player to one of these things than a pitcher.
Eephus
Footballguy
Nobody forced the clubs to sign Werth and Crawford to 7 year deals. It's not like MLB GMs aren't aware that Soriano, Zito, Helton, Wells, etc. haven't worked out too well. Yet they continue to buy post-prime futures at prime prices.The Giants' two big long-term contracts contributed very little to their World Championship. Zito had a decent first half and then cratered. They got better post-season production from guys who were midseason salary dumps. I'm hoping my new best friend Brian Sabean learned his lesson but we'll have to wait and see until Zito and Rowand come off the books and Lincecum and Cain reach free agency.I guess it's true that Yankees and Red Sox can sustain the hit better than other clubs and if salaries continue to escalate, $20M may not be a huge annual salary seven years from now.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Too many years, but given the market I guess that's not a terrible signing.
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Insoxicated
It's picking Nits but Crawford's birthday is after the ASB. I think it's more realistic to say Boston will have 29-36 year old crawford locked up. It's a small difference but a difference nonetheless. That and assuming all stays as is.... $20MM/year will be a very reasonable sum for a guy who would have Crawfords projected skill-set at 36 years old.Plus Boston can always eat a little of his contract and move him if he crashes and burns. I know... a very Yankees-esque thing to say but we do have a little bit of luxury in that department. Not nearly as much as them but our success gives us flexibility.Assuming matters stay as they are... the combination of Ellsbury and Crawford in the field is a lethal 1-2 punch out there. Those two will be able to cover some SERIOUS ground.
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the moops
Footballguy
Actually, it would be his ages of 29-35, which is 7 years.
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
He's halfway there. Through 9 seasons, he's got numbers nearly identical to Roberto Clemente in every category... except for the additional 350 stolen bases CC has. If he can keep it up into his mid/late 30s, he'll end with career stats comparable to Clemente, Brock and Raines.no f'n way. this is madnessThanks for the memories CC...glad you got yours...can't wait to see the first Rays cap in the HOF.
Jambi
Footballguy
For those making the comparisons between the value or Werth and Crawford. Are we forgetting that Carl Crawford has been nothing but a super star since entering the league? No one except for baseball nerds even knew who Jason Werth was until midway through 2009. He's been in the league since 2002 and only became everyday in 2008. He's a 20/20 guy who is a good outfielder with a cannon arm. Crawford is a 50/20 guy who will be a 50/25-30 guy at Fenway. Werth K's about 50% more than Crawford. Crawford is a gold glover - arguably the best overall left fielder in baseball. You can make a case for Braun but after last season (and as a dynasty owner) I'm a bit concerned.
Werth is two years older. People say he's lean and mean but when I look at him I don't think he's going to age well. He's got that Ichabod Crane, rickety look about him. Crawford on the other hand looks like he'll remain svelte until he's 40. I'll take Crawford over Werth every time. I liker Werth but like I said, he's been in the league for 8 years and only became an everyday player two years ago. Crawford has been wreaking havoc since he came up.
Who has the track record? Do I think the Sox overpaid? I would say we'll see next year but I think the biggest name OF FA next year is Aubrey Huff
(This only increases Ellsbury's market value)I'm thinking they paid right about where they had to in order to lock him up. Ellsbury is attractive at $19.5M less. Where should they have spent the money? There was no Mike Piazza or Pudges in their prime sitting out there. Hanley Ramirez isn't available, they already tried to make that play.
Crawford has the ability to hit 30 hrs in Fenway. He can steal 60 bases. I expect him to be more in the 45-50 range but then again if they don't dish Ellsbury (the Grienke trade should be happening any time now) I can see them pushing each other. Sox could have two guys steal over 60. He's also amazing outfielder. Who even compares to him in the game today? Braun? When is the last time we saw a guy like Carl Crawford? I'll take it. He's only going to 36 when his contract is up. Some of you act like they just signed a 34 year old Mo Vaughn. I'm not sure I can think of an outfielder I would gamble on being in better shape at the age of 37 than Carl Crawford.
I've got a powerboner. I've been saying it for 2-3 years. When he comes to market, he'll be a Red Sox. If you need me to dig it up, I can.
And for you sour grape eating (Yankees) fans trying to make this out to be a bad signing, have a look below
A-Rod in decline - 7 more years - $25M
Jeter - not much more than a slap hitting shortstop with no range - 3 years at $17M+
AJ Burnett - Now thats just hitting below the belt
I think Kevin Brown is still on the books
Seriously, sometimes you just have to suck it up and say "nice haul". When you're a Yankees fan that doesn't have your head buried up your ### (there's a few here) there's no room to criticize FA signings. Some of you, a couple in particular, sound absolutely moronic. Baseball is going to be fun this year.
Put me on the record - John Lackey is going to turn things around and John Lester will be your Cy Young.
Werth is two years older. People say he's lean and mean but when I look at him I don't think he's going to age well. He's got that Ichabod Crane, rickety look about him. Crawford on the other hand looks like he'll remain svelte until he's 40. I'll take Crawford over Werth every time. I liker Werth but like I said, he's been in the league for 8 years and only became an everyday player two years ago. Crawford has been wreaking havoc since he came up.
Who has the track record? Do I think the Sox overpaid? I would say we'll see next year but I think the biggest name OF FA next year is Aubrey Huff
(This only increases Ellsbury's market value)I'm thinking they paid right about where they had to in order to lock him up. Ellsbury is attractive at $19.5M less. Where should they have spent the money? There was no Mike Piazza or Pudges in their prime sitting out there. Hanley Ramirez isn't available, they already tried to make that play.Crawford has the ability to hit 30 hrs in Fenway. He can steal 60 bases. I expect him to be more in the 45-50 range but then again if they don't dish Ellsbury (the Grienke trade should be happening any time now) I can see them pushing each other. Sox could have two guys steal over 60. He's also amazing outfielder. Who even compares to him in the game today? Braun? When is the last time we saw a guy like Carl Crawford? I'll take it. He's only going to 36 when his contract is up. Some of you act like they just signed a 34 year old Mo Vaughn. I'm not sure I can think of an outfielder I would gamble on being in better shape at the age of 37 than Carl Crawford.
I've got a powerboner. I've been saying it for 2-3 years. When he comes to market, he'll be a Red Sox. If you need me to dig it up, I can.
And for you sour grape eating (Yankees) fans trying to make this out to be a bad signing, have a look below
A-Rod in decline - 7 more years - $25M
Jeter - not much more than a slap hitting shortstop with no range - 3 years at $17M+
AJ Burnett - Now thats just hitting below the belt
I think Kevin Brown is still on the books
Seriously, sometimes you just have to suck it up and say "nice haul". When you're a Yankees fan that doesn't have your head buried up your ### (there's a few here) there's no room to criticize FA signings. Some of you, a couple in particular, sound absolutely moronic. Baseball is going to be fun this year.
Put me on the record - John Lackey is going to turn things around and John Lester will be your Cy Young.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
So the optimist can point to Clemente and lets say maybe Rickey Henderson while the pessimist might point to Tim Raines in so much as a speed decline after the very early 30's.
What is headscratching to me about the deal is, what is Crawford? Hell of a ballplayer, maybe used best as a leadoff/#2 hitter, since we are valuing his speed as such. To bat him third is to waste him since you'd so often run of taking the bat out of Gonzalez's hands. Particularly with a right hander on the hill and a chance to face Youkillus next.
So to mitigate that, you could bat them Crawford/Youk/Gonzo but whats the point of building around Gonzalez to bat him 5th?
Then if you hit him 1 or 2, how do you justify that kind of cake for a guy who'll spend the majority of those seasons in his 30's?
I think thats what makes me curious. Its almost like its one move too many here, I love the signing if they don't get Gonzalez. What would have scared me to death as a Yankee fan is if they got Pujols next year.
What is headscratching to me about the deal is, what is Crawford? Hell of a ballplayer, maybe used best as a leadoff/#2 hitter, since we are valuing his speed as such. To bat him third is to waste him since you'd so often run of taking the bat out of Gonzalez's hands. Particularly with a right hander on the hill and a chance to face Youkillus next.
So to mitigate that, you could bat them Crawford/Youk/Gonzo but whats the point of building around Gonzalez to bat him 5th?
Then if you hit him 1 or 2, how do you justify that kind of cake for a guy who'll spend the majority of those seasons in his 30's?
I think thats what makes me curious. Its almost like its one move too many here, I love the signing if they don't get Gonzalez. What would have scared me to death as a Yankee fan is if they got Pujols next year.
the moops
Footballguy
I wonder if it is going to be a Pedroia, Crawford, Youk, Gonzalez top of the order, with Ellsbury batting 9th.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
That probably makes the most sense, against LHP, and then maybe Crawford/Pedroia/Gonzo/Youkillus against RHP
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Not sure if this is addressed at me at all. If it is ... I think Crawford is clearly the better value. Even if you adjust Werth's number downward because the Nationals likely had to outbid to competition by at least $20 million to convince him to come to DC. To be honest, I'm pretty sure the Nats targeted Crawford first and were rebuffed. Any fool can see that Crawford's the superior asset, even the fools who've been running the Nats. I just think that once you account for the difference in pay and take out the premium required for a lousy team to sign a stud free agent, it's silly to say that one deal is "genius" and the other is a head-scratching "what were they thinking?" type deal. But that's how GMs reacted. I just think their perceptions were affected by the parties doing the deals rather than the terms. Also, Werth is supposedly a fitness nut, which probably contributes to his gaunt look but also bodes well for his continued production. And his body type and skill set (good plate approach with some power, strong arm) tends to age well as compared to the stocky sluggers or the speedsters.For those making the comparisons between the value or Werth and Crawford. Are we forgetting that Carl Crawford has been nothing but a super star since entering the league? No one except for baseball nerds even knew who Jason Werth was until midway through 2009. He's been in the league since 2002 and only became everyday in 2008. He's a 20/20 guy who is a good outfielder with a cannon arm. Crawford is a 50/20 guy who will be a 50/25-30 guy at Fenway. Werth K's about 50% more than Crawford. Crawford is a gold glover - arguably the best overall left fielder in baseball. You can make a case for Braun but after last season (and as a dynasty owner) I'm a bit concerned.Werth is two years older. People say he's lean and mean but when I look at him I don't think he's going to age well. He's got that Ichabod Crane, rickety look about him. Crawford on the other hand looks like he'll remain svelte until he's 40. I'll take Crawford over Werth every time. I liker Werth but like I said, he's been in the league for 8 years and only became an everyday player two years ago. Crawford has been wreaking havoc since he came up. Who has the track record? Do I think the Sox overpaid? I would say we'll see next year but I think the biggest name OF FA next year is Aubrey Huff(This only increases Ellsbury's market value)I'm thinking they paid right about where they had to in order to lock him up. Ellsbury is attractive at $19.5M less. Where should they have spent the money? There was no Mike Piazza or Pudges in their prime sitting out there. Hanley Ramirez isn't available, they already tried to make that play.
Jambi
Footballguy
You're right. Who is this guy. Pretty much just a single hitting speedster with inconsistent power.You're seriously questioning where he fits into the lineup? You're probably right. Sox just killed the chemistry of their top half.
Balco
Footballguy
Agreed. Ellsbury has a .750 (.340 OBP) OPS out of the leadoff spot in 2009, and a .698 (.320 OBP) OPS there in 2008.Pedroia or Crawford are both better options.
Sleeping King
Footballguy
I doubt it. Tito will want his usual L-R split. Crawford LPedroia RGonzalez LYoukilis ROrtiz L?
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
He'd fit anywhere on any team, thats a given. But the question is, is this the best use of your financial bullets? How much more money would Pujols cost next season if he hits the market? 7 years at 140 is insane to me, and I'm on record with that in threads from the summer. I'm shocked Crawford broke 15 million annually. Now I do understand that Werth may have changed that slightly, but the question is what's a guy worth? For reference, Hanley Ramerez is a 15-17 million guy for the next four years. Hell, Jose Reyes is a FA next off-season and he's a scarier fit than Crawford. Look, he'll certainly help them for the next 3-4 years, but as a Yankee fan, I'm THRILLED with deal.And hoping Pujols can play RF in NY next year.
the moops
Footballguy
Crawford has said he does not want to bat leadoff, and he has performed the worst in the leadoff spot (744 OPS). He has batted best 2nd (812). 3rd he has batted (790).Batting him 2nd keeps the 9,1,2,3,4 in L,R,L,R,L - if Ellsbury is batting 9th.Ortiz is so terrible against left-handed pitching that you have to think he will be pinch hit for anytime a LOOGY enters the game, so slotting him 5th behind Gonzalez shouldn't be an issue, IMO.
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