Convince me on Rob Gronkowski (1 Viewer)

[Whoosah]

I know this guy tore it up last year and was a fantasy monster. However, can anyone sell me and justify me of him being a 1st round pick in some dynasty and redraft leagues?

This was his first year where he blew up and I feel like a guy like this needs to show another year of consistency before anointing him as the top guy.

I am not saying he is or isn't the best tight end right now, but I would like to hear some reasons why he should and will repeat his numbers from last year and be a top 12-24 pick in all formats.

 

[TS Garp]

I don't know that anyone thinks he's a first round pick in a redraft league, but if the best season ever by a TE, 3 more td's in the playoffs, and 27 td's in his first 32 NFL games isn't enough to convince you that he's a truly elite talent, I'm not sure what will. It's always a bad idea to expect guys to repeat historic seasons, so you have to expect some regression, but he's clearly a very, very special player in the perfect situation.

 

[Eminence]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TD

Calvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TD

What more do you want from a Tight End?

 

[Whoosah]

I don't know that anyone thinks he's a first round pick in a redraft league, but if the best season ever by a TE, 3 more td's in the playoffs, and 27 td's in his first 32 NFL games isn't enough to convince you that he's a truly elite talent, I'm not sure what will. It's always a bad idea to expect guys to repeat historic seasons, so you have to expect some regression, but he's clearly a very, very special player in the perfect situation.

I guess my concern is that they have Welker and Hernandez as well as a bunch of other WRs that Brady can target. You never know who will be Brady's top target next year. I admit I did not see much of the Patriots, except for the highlights with Gronk in it.Maybe it's the expected regression next year from a great season is leaving me somewhat skeptical. I am assuming it's a unanimous vote of confidence by all that that Gronk is the #1 TE going into next year?

 

[comfortably numb]

Im my 1.5PPR for TE leagues he is close to 1.1 let alone 1st RD

 

[rizzler]

pass on him and leave him for me.

thanks.

 

[TS Garp]

I don't know that anyone thinks he's a first round pick in a redraft league, but if the best season ever by a TE, 3 more td's in the playoffs, and 27 td's in his first 32 NFL games isn't enough to convince you that he's a truly elite talent, I'm not sure what will. It's always a bad idea to expect guys to repeat historic seasons, so you have to expect some regression, but he's clearly a very, very special player in the perfect situation.

I guess my concern is that they have Welker and Hernandez as well as a bunch of other WRs that Brady can target. You never know who will be Brady's top target next year. I admit I did not see much of the Patriots, except for the highlights with Gronk in it.Maybe it's the expected regression next year from a great season is leaving me somewhat skeptical. I am assuming it's a unanimous vote of confidence by all that that Gronk is the #1 TE going into next year?

They do have a lot of options (and they added Lloyd) but Brady's chemistry and trust in Gronkowski can't be underestimated. In the same way that I wouldn't look for Calvin Johnson to exactly repeat his numbers from last year, I wouldn't expect 90/1300/17 from Gronkowski, but, by the same token, I'd be very surprised -- barring injury -- if he didn't hit 75/1150/12 and if that's his floor, you have an incredibly valuable player, especially knowing how high his ceiling is.

 

[lbouchard]

I don't really consider him a 1st rounder, but 2nd is about right. Graham is actually my TE1, but him and Gronk are neck and neck. When someone gives you a 5 ppg advantage over the other TEs, you're looking at a special player

 

[bucsbaby]

I don't know that anyone thinks he's a first round pick in a redraft league, but if the best season ever by a TE, 3 more td's in the playoffs, and 27 td's in his first 32 NFL games isn't enough to convince you that he's a truly elite talent, I'm not sure what will. It's always a bad idea to expect guys to repeat historic seasons, so you have to expect some regression, but he's clearly a very, very special player in the perfect situation.

I guess my concern is that they have Welker and Hernandez as well as a bunch of other WRs that Brady can target. You never know who will be Brady's top target next year. I admit I did not see much of the Patriots, except for the highlights with Gronk in it.Maybe it's the expected regression next year from a great season is leaving me somewhat skeptical. I am assuming it's a unanimous vote of confidence by all that that Gronk is the #1 TE going into next year?

There's your problem. I watched all the Pats games last year and the guy was flat out unstoppable -- the only thing that slowed him down was the injury later on. Otherwise, him and Brady were pretty much on video game mode.

 

[Phenix]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

This.

 

[Phenix]

I don't really consider him a 1st rounder, but 2nd is about right. Graham is actually my TE1, but him and Gronk are neck and neck. When someone gives you a 5 ppg advantage over the other TEs, you're looking at a special player

I just took him at the 15th overall pick in a ppr startup. He is more than a TE, he is a machine.Points galore from this guy as he is a mismatch at any spot on the field.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Then just draft gronk and welker and hernandez then....you'll finish at or near top of league.

Not sure why someone would need convinced about gronk. his play to date speaks for itself

 

[sbonomo]

when Hernadez says he is a freak of nature without an equal i believe him....Draft him with confidence.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Just look at all those TDs. Bank on players with high TDs.

 

[Buck Stop]

 

[menobrown]

Im my 1.5PPR for TE leagues he is close to 1.1 let alone 1st RD

In 1.5 PPR leagues both he and Graham are top half of the first round guys in most leagues.On the issue of other options in NE. They only added Lloyd and if he takes the place of a player in the lineup you figure it's probably Branch who averaged 6 targets a game or at the sake of Hernandez if they opt for more true 3 WR/1TE sets. More than anything I'd say after watching the Super Bowl and seeing how much more limited the Pat's offense was without the threat of Gronkowski eased any concerns I would have about him not being a constant integral part of the offense.

 

[Phenix]

BETTER YET------

Convince me on what makes you think he will be a bust?

 

[CalBear]

I don't really consider him a 1st rounder, but 2nd is about right. Graham is actually my TE1, but him and Gronk are neck and neck. When someone gives you a 5 ppg advantage over the other TEs, you're looking at a special player

If you think he gives you a 5ppg advantage over other TEs, why on earth would you wait until the second round to take him?

 

[Whoosah]

I guess this adds perspective. I never doubted this guy nor questioned his ability. Never said he would bust, but someone did say that there will be some regression from last year.

Also, I think my skepticism is that I hear that Gronk could go in the 1st round of drafts in various formats. That's where I guess I need convincing that he's worth taking over other elite RBs and WRs, cuz I can't picture a tight end being taken so early.

 

[az_prof]

I know this guy tore it up last year and was a fantasy monster. However, can anyone sell me and justify me of him being a 1st round pick in some dynasty and redraft leagues? This was his first year where he blew up and I feel like a guy like this needs to show another year of consistency before anointing him as the top guy.I am not saying he is or isn't the best tight end right now, but I would like to hear some reasons why he should and will repeat his numbers from last year and be a top 12-24 pick in all formats.

I feel the same. I expect him to be a top 10 TE for sure, but until he puts up another elite year, I can't anoint him the #1 guy. Before Gates replaced Gonzo as the top TE, there were a number of different guys who put up one great year but didn't consistently dominate as those two have done.I don't think he will be a bust, but I could imagine Hernandez getting more looks in the passing game. I could also imagine the team redirecting its attack--NE rarely uses the same offense year after year. They tweak it and different guys sometimes have great years at different positions. Will defenses roll coverage his way more to take him away? How will he respond?

 

[Phenix]

I guess this adds perspective. I never doubted this guy nor questioned his ability. Never said he would bust, but someone did say that there will be some regression from last year.Also, I think my skepticism is that I hear that Gronk could go in the 1st round of drafts in various formats. That's where I guess I need convincing that he's worth taking over other elite RBs and WRs, cuz I can't picture a tight end being taken so early.

And there was a time when everyone would take a RB in the first.The game changes man.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

 

[CalBear]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

 

[Yenrub]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

I had both plus Aaron Rodgers in a 12 team keep 2 player league. The league is 16 years old..those 3 help me set records for most wins and points scored.Anyway back on topic if you aren't convinced that Gronk is the real deal after last season nothing will convince you

 

[jurb26]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

I had both plus Aaron Rodgers in a 12 team keep 2 player league. The league is 16 years old..those 3 help me set records for most wins and points scored.Anyway back on topic if you aren't convinced that Gronk is the real deal after last season nothing will convince you

Being the real deal and repeating with similar numbers are 2 very different things.

 

[Pictus Cat]

High TDs, record breaking performance, a year for defenses to adjust, offense has more than one read, and a coach that laughs at convention and others expectations.

He could make a IDP get the TDs. Oh wait...

Nothing but upside.

 

[Sabertooth]

He could score 50% of the fantasy points he got last season and he'd still be tied with Vernon Davis for TE12.

 

[Whoosah]

He could score 50% of the fantasy points he got last season and he'd still be tied with Vernon Davis for TE12.

I guess knowing all this. And this is to everyone that sold me on Gronk. Would you all take him as your 1st round pick in all your drafts? Regardless of format?

 

[Phenix]

He could score 50% of the fantasy points he got last season and he'd still be tied with Vernon Davis for TE12.

I guess knowing all this. And this is to everyone that sold me on Gronk. Would you all take him as your 1st round pick in all your drafts? Regardless of format?

No, but I'll take him as my second, since he performs at that level.

 

[Run It Up]

I know this guy tore it up last year and was a fantasy monster. However, can anyone sell me and justify me of him being a 1st round pick in some dynasty and redraft leagues? This was his first year where he blew up and I feel like a guy like this needs to show another year of consistency before anointing him as the top guy.I am not saying he is or isn't the best tight end right now, but I would like to hear some reasons why he should and will repeat his numbers from last year and be a top 12-24 pick in all formats.

He tore it up two years in a row, hes in one of the best offenses in the league with a QB that knows how to use him. Sorry Graham and Davis, your both clearly 2a-2b.

 

[Sabertooth]

He could score 50% of the fantasy points he got last season and he'd still be tied with Vernon Davis for TE12.

I guess knowing all this. And this is to everyone that sold me on Gronk. Would you all take him as your 1st round pick in all your drafts? Regardless of format?

No, but I'll take him as my second, since he performs at that level.

I think this is his point. He not only performs as a first round pick, but does so at a position where it is hard to find guys worthy of even a 4th or 5th round pick. His VBD must be off the charts. Plus he's just a young pup still. He's younger than Fleener. He was the 9th rated player in my dynasty last year overall. And this in "the year of the QB." He finished 4th among non-qbs. If that isn't worthy of a first rounder, I don't know what is. I think right now if I had to draft in a PPR:Rodgers (Packer fan here)CalvinMcCoyRiceGronkSo yeah, I'd take him with a first rounder.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

History would seem to tell us that Gronk doesn't match his 2011 numbers but I guess the question you would need to ask yourself is would you take 75 percent of his numbers with a first round selection?

 

[Sabertooth]

History would seem to tell us that Gronk doesn't match his 2011 numbers but I guess the question you would need to ask yourself is would you take 75 percent of his numbers with a first round selection?

Then you must also discount Graham,Rodgers, McCoy, Foster, Rice, Brees, Brady, Megatron, Stafford. See where I'm going with his? Why would he get a discount and not the other top guys? Obviously we don't have a crystal ball. So it basically comes down to prognosticating who will repeat, who will regress, and who will improve. The best best is probably to say they'll all regress. And they might. But I see no reason to think Gronkowski will regress but Graham won't. The one thing Gronk has going for him that nobody else except McCoy does is that he's only 23 years old. Much younger than all these other guys. So who has a bigger chance to regress? I'd say the older guys do. But then again, that's just a guess.

 

[Tanner9919]

B. Lloyd really upsets the balance of things in the NE offense..

looking at McDaniels track record as an OC or as the play calling HC of the Broncos, TE's haven't fared well under his direction:

TE stats , NE , 2006-08:

81-1037 ('06)

45-459 ('07)

31-302 ('08)

Denver, 2009:

59-705.

it's fairly obvious that Lloyd was brought to NE to be the homerun threat, and given his relationship with McD, you can lock it up now, Llloyd will catch at least 80 balls this season..

add to that Welker's roughly 110 recs, thats 190 completions between these two guys. factoring in approx 360 comps for Brady ( because no way he approaches 400 again, something about the 'regression to the mean' people always quote on this site), we're left with 170 completions to be spread between Gronk, Hernandez, the RB Committee..

if you give 40 recs to the RB's, that leaves you with 130 recs to be split between Hernandez and Gronk and the remaining WR's..

Lloyd's signing, IMO, significantly hurts Gronk's value, it doesn't help his value..80 balls destined for Welker and Co are now more spread out..

Factor in the 'regression to the mean' that is so talked about on this site, and you can see that Gronk's numbers would have had a major slide even without Lloyd coming aboard..

I would put Gronk down for about 70 recs in 2012..and that might be the high end of the scale..

Relative to his ADP, Gronk will be vastly overrated in 2012..you can get a guy like Witten , who represents terrific value at his draft position, in round 5 or so..he'll put up his usual 90/1000/6 season..

I'd take the steady performer over the one year wonder, any day of the week.

History says this guy won't come close to his 2011 #'s. and defenses have spent the entire offseason trying to find ways to scheme coverages towards Gronkowski.

taking Gronkowski as a first round selection 'even at 75% production of his 2011 totals', is called 'Jason Witten' in round 5.

be a thrifty shopper..use coupons!!

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

 

[kutta]

B. Lloyd really upsets the balance of things in the NE offense..

looking at McDaniels track record as an OC or as the play calling HC of the Broncos, TE's haven't fared well under his direction:

TE stats , NE , 2006-08:

81-1037 ('06)

45-459 ('07)

31-302 ('08)

Denver, 2009:

59-705.

it's fairly obvious that Lloyd was brought to NE to be the homerun threat, and given his relationship with McD, you can lock it up now, Llloyd will catch at least 80 balls this season..

add to that Welker's roughly 110 recs, thats 190 completions between these two guys. factoring in approx 360 comps for Brady ( because no way he approaches 400 again, something about the 'regression to the mean' people always quote on this site), we're left with 170 completions to be spread between Gronk, Hernandez, the RB Committee..

if you give 40 recs to the RB's, that leaves you with 130 recs to be split between Hernandez and Gronk and the remaining WR's..

Lloyd's signing, IMO, significantly hurts Gronk's value, it doesn't help his value..80 balls destined for Welker and Co are now more spread out..

Factor in the 'regression to the mean' that is so talked about on this site, and you can see that Gronk's numbers would have had a major slide even without Lloyd coming aboard..

I would put Gronk down for about 70 recs in 2012..and that might be the high end of the scale..

Relative to his ADP, Gronk will be vastly overrated in 2012..you can get a guy like Witten , who represents terrific value at his draft position, in round 5 or so..he'll put up his usual 90/1000/6 season..

I'd take the steady performer over the one year wonder, any day of the week.

History says this guy won't come close to his 2011 #'s. and defenses have spent the entire offseason trying to find ways to scheme coverages towards Gronkowski.

taking Gronkowski as a first round selection 'even at 75% production of his 2011 totals', is called 'Jason Witten' in round 5.

be a thrifty shopper..use coupons!!

A couple points.1. Why do you discount the TE receptions with Lloyd in the mix and not Welker's?

2. You arbitrarily discounted Brady's completions to 360. In three of his last four years he had at least 370 completions, and two of those years he was at 400.

3. Gronk is not a one year wonder. He had 10 TD's as a rookie in his first year.

 

[kutta]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

If you were 100% certain that Gronk would put up the same numbers he did last year, would you draft him in the first round this year?

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

If you were 100% certain that Gronk would put up the same numbers he did last year, would you draft him in the first round this year?

If I were 100% certain then yes I would take him in the first round. His numbers from a year ago were just way to gaudy to not take in the first round.

 

[Shutout]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

That's the problem. The numbers are SO rediculous that its not that people aren't saying he is great, its trying to figure out how much he will fall back to Earth. He has to, right?I;ve seen people get so stoked over guys like Finley and Vernon the past few years, thinking they would take things to an all-time high. And then Gronk actually did it, but its almost impossible to think that type of production could be sustained.So, I think when you look at Gronk, you could be comfortable EXPECTING that he will routinely produce numbers that are in the Dallas clark years when he was good or Gates years when he was the clear best. That is his true value, imo. If you expect or pay based on last year, I think you are going to be disappointed. If you try to discount him any lower below VERY GOOD, then I think you have underestimated him.

 

[Bayhawks]

B. Lloyd really upsets the balance of things in the NE offense..

Really? You think Brady is going to stop going to his All-Pro TE who he is supremely confident in to throw to a new guy because his OC tells him to? You do remember that this is the same QB who got into a screaming match with his OC last year on the sideline, right?

looking at McDaniels track record as an OC or as the play calling HC of the Broncos, TE's haven't fared well under his direction:

TE stats , NE , 2006-08:

81-1037 ('06)

45-459 ('07)

31-302 ('08)

Denver, 2009:

59-705

Let's be honest. During those 4 years you cited, McDaniels didn't have a single TE the caliber of Hernandez OR Gronkowski, let alone TWO of them

it's fairly obvious that Lloyd was brought to NE to be the homerun threat, and given his relationship with McD, you can lock it up now, Llloyd will catch at least 80 balls this season..

Seriously? You can lock up that a WR who has NEVER caught 80 balls in a season will do so this year from a QB who doesn't have a tendency to lock onto 1 WR and force balls (especially deep balls). I am having trouble following that logic.

I would put Gronk down for about 70 recs in 2012..and that might be the high end of the scale..

This is where your theory is REALLY flawed, IMO. Barring injury, 70 receptions is Gronkowski's floor. I would imagine he'll catch around 80 balls, around 1100 yards, and (here's where his real value is) 12+ TDs.

I'd take the steady performer over the one year wonder, any day of the week.

Interesting use of the phrase "one year wonder." You're basing Gronkowski's demise on the arrival of Lloyd, the very defintion of "one year wonder;" plus the one year Lloyd was wonderful, he was the ONLY option in Denver. Gronkowski has put up two solid years, and since he became a starter (mid-way through his rookie year), he has averaged 5 catches, 72 yards, and 1+ TDs a game. That's 24 games where he has AVERAGED those numbers. We're not talking about a 3 game hot streak, or a hot end of a season. We're talking about consistent production.

History says this guy won't come close to his 2011 #'s. and defenses have spent the entire offseason trying to find ways to scheme coverages towards Gronkowski.

You don't think DC's spent last year trying to scheme coverage towards him? You don't think Denver and Baltimore devoted attention to him in the playoffs when he had 230+ yards and 3 TDs (before getting hurt)?

taking Gronkowski as a first round selection 'even at 75% production of his 2011 totals', is called 'Jason Witten' in round 5.

Again, another flaw in your logic. 75% of Gronkowski's 2011 production would be 68/975/14. I think the catches and yards are a bit low, but let's roll with those numbers.Witten has NEVER produced those stats, yet you consider it a lock that he will do so. In fact, earlier you posted 90/1000/6 as Witten's "usual." Witten has only ever had that type of season twice (out of his 9 year career)-'07 & '10, plus 1 year when he almost did ('04-87/980/6). So Witten's "usual" only occurs 33% of the time

 

[CalBear]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

Why don't you place much value on the TE position? Do TEs not score points in your league?

 

[Whoosah]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

Why don't you place much value on the TE position? Do TEs not score points in your league?

My whole point for this thread is not to say Gronk sucks or anything. He is elite a #1 TE (#2 to some) in all formats. The question is if it is unanimous to take him in the first round.This is a big deal, because I do not think you have seen anytime in the past a TE being taken in the first round like that. I don't think even Gates and Gonzalez in their primes were considered a 1st round pick.With that said, I do not believe this is a "changing of the league" so to speak. Now, if we see 2 tight ends go in the first, then I am more inclined to believe there is a change on how fantasy football is approached.Until then, I think Gronk is an anomaly, which is why I am determining his over all value. Still, good discussion so far!

 

[massraider]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TDCalvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TDWhat more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

The fact that you can easily pencil in 10 TDs for Gronk, and that he plays a position of little importance to you, makes him that much more valuable. He is Randy Moss for the Pats now. Their Red Zone threat, for a team always in the Red Zone. Too bad he wasn't a WR, he'd be the #2 WR behind Calvin, and a lock 1st rounder. Ha.

 

[RUSF18]

Rob Gronkowski - 90 / 1,327 / 17TD

Calvin Johnson - 96 / 1,681 / 16TD

What more do you want from a Tight End?

I had them both last season. Anyway, I would not take a TE in a redraft in the first 2 rounds. MAYBE the 3rd.

Why not?

Just personal preferance. I don't place much value on the TE position and it's usually been a position I have had success drafting later. Even in Gronk's case last year he was my second TE-- picked in round 9 of a ten team 4 person keeper ppr.

Why don't you place much value on the TE position? Do TEs not score points in your league?

My whole point for this thread is not to say Gronk sucks or anything. He is elite a #1 TE (#2 to some) in all formats. The question is if it is unanimous to take him in the first round.This is a big deal, because I do not think you have seen anytime in the past a TE being taken in the first round like that. I don't think even Gates and Gonzalez in their primes were considered a 1st round pick.

With that said, I do not believe this is a "changing of the league" so to speak. Now, if we see 2 tight ends go in the first, then I am more inclined to believe there is a change on how fantasy football is approached.

Until then, I think Gronk is an anomaly, which is why I am determining his over all value. Still, good discussion so far!

If that's the question, I'll answer it for you: no, it will never be unanimous that a TE should/will be drafted in the first round.

 

[mbuehner]

Without scoring formats this question is unanswerable. But lets look at FBG scoring and see how Gronk benefited his owners:

Ok,for this analysis I took the top 12 Tight Ends for 2011/12 and extrapolated a 16 game season (for anybody missing games), so take that with a grain of salt.

Gronk scored 240.9 FPs. The next 11 TEs combined scored 1454.7 FPs (Again- prorate to a 16 game season!), for an average of 132.2. Thats a net difference of 108.7 points for the season from the mean TE, or 6.79 points per game. In reality, Jimmy Graham really unbalances the average. The median TE scoring was 124.7, or a 7.26 point advantage for Gronk (the score you could best expect on a given Sunday).

Thats a lot of points, and unless you were playing Jimmy Graham you could pretty much put yourself down for an extra 7 or more points per game.

Now, lets take a look at QBs since they are easy to compare in 1QB leagues (same 16g extrapolation):

Drew Brees was the QB1 in FBG scoring, so lets say you were debating whether he (or call it Rodgers if you like) is a better pick in the 1st round than Gronk based solely on projected value of their points.

Brees scored 458.4 FPs and the average score for the next 11 QBs was 367.6, a 5.7 point advantage. The median quarterback scored 353, a 6.6 point advantage for Brees.

So if you are purely looking at the relative advantage for the position (and you are willing to assume next season will be equivalent to this season), drafting Gronkowski would expect to give you .7 more fantasy points per game over your opponents than drafting the top QB (Brees in this case). They both had historic years obviously. But this is the point of value based drafting, its all about who should give you the best relative advantage by position, not by absolute points.

One more caveat (there are many)- this doesnt take into account the unlikelyhood of everybody picking and starting the exact 12 best players at the positions. So question to ask is what happens if I miss on a top 12 player (oops!) because I went fishing late in the draft, what will it cost me. The drop off to the next tiers of scoring are important at that point, and for TEs the drop off is pretty slight (there are a ton of mediocre TEs, after the first 6 of 7 it really doesnt matter anymore, or hasnt historically). But QBs have a much wider spectrum, and you can get into real trouble if you drop off the top 12, or trying to find a replacement if the injury bug bites. Just something else to consider over and above pure point projections.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

B. Lloyd really upsets the balance of things in the NE offense..

Really? You think Brady is going to stop going to his All-Pro TE who he is supremely confident in to throw to a new guy because his OC tells him to? You do remember that this is the same QB who got into a screaming match with his OC last year on the sideline, right?

looking at McDaniels track record as an OC or as the play calling HC of the Broncos, TE's haven't fared well under his direction:

TE stats , NE , 2006-08:

81-1037 ('06)

45-459 ('07)

31-302 ('08)

Denver, 2009:

59-705

Let's be honest. During those 4 years you cited, McDaniels didn't have a single TE the caliber of Hernandez OR Gronkowski, let alone TWO of them

it's fairly obvious that Lloyd was brought to NE to be the homerun threat, and given his relationship with McD, you can lock it up now, Llloyd will catch at least 80 balls this season..

Seriously? You can lock up that a WR who has NEVER caught 80 balls in a season will do so this year from a QB who doesn't have a tendency to lock onto 1 WR and force balls (especially deep balls). I am having trouble following that logic.

I would put Gronk down for about 70 recs in 2012..and that might be the high end of the scale..

This is where your theory is REALLY flawed, IMO. Barring injury, 70 receptions is Gronkowski's floor. I would imagine he'll catch around 80 balls, around 1100 yards, and (here's where his real value is) 12+ TDs.

I'd take the steady performer over the one year wonder, any day of the week.

Interesting use of the phrase "one year wonder." You're basing Gronkowski's demise on the arrival of Lloyd, the very defintion of "one year wonder;" plus the one year Lloyd was wonderful, he was the ONLY option in Denver. Gronkowski has put up two solid years, and since he became a starter (mid-way through his rookie year), he has averaged 5 catches, 72 yards, and 1+ TDs a game. That's 24 games where he has AVERAGED those numbers. We're not talking about a 3 game hot streak, or a hot end of a season. We're talking about consistent production.

History says this guy won't come close to his 2011 #'s. and defenses have spent the entire offseason trying to find ways to scheme coverages towards Gronkowski.

You don't think DC's spent last year trying to scheme coverage towards him? You don't think Denver and Baltimore devoted attention to him in the playoffs when he had 230+ yards and 3 TDs (before getting hurt)?

taking Gronkowski as a first round selection 'even at 75% production of his 2011 totals', is called 'Jason Witten' in round 5.

Again, another flaw in your logic. 75% of Gronkowski's 2011 production would be 68/975/14. I think the catches and yards are a bit low, but let's roll with those numbers.Witten has NEVER produced those stats, yet you consider it a lock that he will do so. In fact, earlier you posted 90/1000/6 as Witten's "usual." Witten has only ever had that type of season twice (out of his 9 year career)-'07 & '10, plus 1 year when he almost did ('04-87/980/6). So Witten's "usual" only occurs 33% of the time

What makes Gronk really valuable is the position he plays, TE. The production he gets at TE is so superior to that of the other TEs(outside of Graham) that each week it give you a huge advantage in FF.

(Basing this off of 12 team PPR leagues)

Gronk averaged 20.67 PPG

TE12 averaged 10.8 PPG

+10 points each week

compare that to:

QB1 29.7

QB12 18.0

+12

RB1 23.3

RB12 16.5

+7 PPG

WR1 22.4

WR12 15.6

+ 7 PPG

In order of biggest differential: QB, TE, RB, WR

Now expand this out further to flex starting:

RB1 23.3

RB36 9.5

+14

WR1 22.4

WR36 11.7

+11

WR1 22.4

WR48 9.6

+13

You could draft Gronk in the first round and then grab WR36 as your WR1 and it almost equal out. That's a huge advantage.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Why don't you place much value on the TE position? Do TEs not score points in your league?

1 PPR and 1 point per 10 yards receiving. His numbers last year were good enough to be the 3rd best reciever (TE's & WR's) with Jimmy Graham behon him by 46 points.I don't value the position itself because there always seems to be a guy like the two mentioned above that come out of nowhere and have top 5 seasons. In the past I have been lucky enough to draft guys like Gates (before he was Gates) and Vernon Davis much later. Having 4 keepers I usually prefer to keep a QB, 2 RB's and a WR then take WR's (since we start 3) early...I'll take a shot on a TE later and if he doesnt pan out I'll deal a pick to a lesser team to fix it.I know this isnt the case for everyone but it's JMO.

He is Randy Moss for the Pats now. Their Red Zone threat, for a team always in the Red Zone. Too bad he wasn't a WR, he'd be the #2 WR behind Calvin, and a lock 1st rounder. Ha.

This I don't agree with. One thing I learned about the NFL is that they will either figure you out or force someone else to beat you...like they did with Moss. Teams were more focused on stopping Welker and Gronk and Hernandez made teams pay. I'd expect Gronk to be the focal point of many teams game plans this season. How that works out none of us know but it will be interesting to see

 

[Phenix]

He is a beast of a WR who happens to play TE.

What makes people believe he is a one year wonder?

Without him the Patriots looked flat in the SB.

Again, if he was classified as a WR he would have went in the first. Stud TEs can be very valuable as they are a plug and play point getter, to me the value of playing a guy who gets almost as sure points as u can get at the position and gets a ton is almost priceless. How is that not worthy of a 2nd? There are less stud TEs then WRs and I can play a TE at my flex. Yes Gronk, and Gronk early please.

 

[Lab]

I think whoever pointed to VBD is on the right track. There's no doubt Gronk is an amazing player, and there's little doubt he will perform very well in 2012. The real question is "How will he perform relative to the other top TEs?"

If you believe Gronk and the 2011 NE offense represents a fundamental shift in how the game will be played in 2012, and really believe he will come close to repeating (or maybe even exceeding) his 2011 stats, then I guess you'd project him as a clear early 1st round pick in redraft, based on an incredibly high VBD score.

But as much fun as it would be to watch Gronk create a major shift in the TE position, I'm not so sure it will happen. I think his 2011 was something of a rare lightning strike, sort of like Randy Moss' 98/1493/23 season with NE in 2007. I think Gronk will regress to the mean somewhat in 2012, and while he probably will be a top-4 TE, his numbers will be less gaudy than 2011.

If you agree with me, then let's assume for now his 2012 numbers will be something like 85/1100/10 (the average of the top 4 TEs from 2011). He'd still be a complete beast, but his VBD compared to a 80/850/8 TE available in round 3-4 might be only 42 VBD points (255 versus 213 in PPR). The question (for VBD drafters at least) is whether you can get better VBD points somewhere else in rounds 1-4. Big names like Calvin and Rodgers certainly would give better VBD than that. But unless people stop drafting RBs early, I suspect the VBD spread for many of the top 15 RBs will also be bigger between rounds 1 and 4.

Do others really think Gronk & NE are re-engineering the TE position for the future, such that their TEs will start consistently scoring in the 90/1200/15 range, and other teams' TEs will be a major cut below?

ETA: I agree with the point someone else made above that many other teams will start to focus lots of effort in 2012 on shutting down Gronk. If they apply enough pressure, they certainly can stop him. But it's not totally clear how soon they will start applying that pressure, or who else for NE will benefit. Likely Welker or Hernandez, but maybe a RB is possible too. Just as defensive coordinators for NYJ, Buff, and other teams have been working this offseason to figure out ways to shut down Gronk, you have to figure Belichick has been plotting this offseason to have a devastating counter-punch ready for defenses that overload Gronk. I am really excited for this season!

 

[Yenrub]

I do not understand the one year wonder talk. Didn’t he finish as a top 5 TE in his rookie year?