ExaltedOne
Footballguy
Beast
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Convince me on Rob Gronkowski (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Whoosah
- Start date
Right. You do this long enough you see the cyclical nature of the game (i wouldn't call them fads because they have actual verifiable substance), but conventional FF wisdom becomes reality until there is a reaction against it and things realign. Kurt Warner is a hands down 1.1 QB in nearly every league, half a decade later only an idiot drafts a QB in the first round and RBs are king, then back to Manning and Brady, then back to nobody, now its Rodgers. The talent and the buckets they end up in certainly dictates a lot of that- but a lot has to do with the marketplace and how most people value players. I guarantee there are still any number of RB/RB diehards out that that fall down laughing at every draft board. I'm not saying disagreeing with a TE in the first 20 picks makes you a luddite, there are perfectly fine arguments to be made that its not wise (i'll throw a bone- Rodgers/Brees/Brady owners are subject to only 1 real injury killing them.... themselves. Gronk and Graham have themselves plus their QB to worry about, their risk is double). But to say you NEVER take a TE early, just not supportable by the evidence, at least without some very specific scoring regime.
az_prof
Footballguy
Taking a TE in the first round, who has one season as the number one TE, is insanty.
breadtree
Footballguy
But taking a WR, RB, or QB who has 1 season as the #1 at his position isn't? Please explain the difference.
az_prof
Footballguy
How many Rbs do you start? How many WRs do you start? How many Tes do you start? That's the difference. If you don't have a top 10 Rb and top 10 WR, you are not winning your league. You can win a league with a subpar TE. That's been my experience. Even when Gates had dominated for years he was never drafted in the first round. It seems like people have gone a bit overboard with the NE love, and the Gronk hype.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
And you can win leagues starting Gronk and flexing Jimmy Graham (lumped in were WR3 and WR4) while starting subpar RB's.
CalBear
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure that teams with Rodgers, Gronkowski, Brandon Marshall, and Steven Jackson won their league. Jackson scored 5 points less than Adrian Peterson. Marshall scored 14 points less than Mike Wallace. It's just math. The team with the most points wins. If the difference between the top TE and a replacement-level TE is greater than the difference between a top RB or WR at the same draft position and the replacement RB or WR, the TE is more valuable and will help your team score more points.
Yes, you can, but you can also win a league with sub-par RBs, sub-par WRs, sub-par QB, etc.The point is to score the most points.
If Gronk (in the late-1st), plus a RB in the 5th gets you more points than a late-1st RB plus a TE in the 5th, then you made the right call in picking Gronk in the 1st.
By saying "it's wrong to pick Gronk (or any TE) in the 1st round," you're taking away a draft option that could make your FF team better.
well, id say your rating system is massively flawed.
gates did not dominate enough to be in the first round. he did not dominate to near the extent gronk did.heres the thing, its gonna gofostermccoyrodgersricebradycalvinnow what? mcfadden, lynch, mjd, cj, mathews, turner stafford, vick, cam, andre? I think im taking gronk over all of those guys except maybe mcfadden if im feeling some gambool in august. regardless, i dont think you can argue enough of those guys to push gronk out of the late first.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
i'd probably add brees and MJD before him and then if i didnt get him on the way back look at jimmy graham there.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
'cvnpoka said:
I'll concede. If he puts up those numbers again he should be a first round pick. I just don't think he will.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
At least I'm not out on this limb by myself.'az_prof said:
kutta
Footballguy
Setting aside projections for a second, I believe that your first and second round picks should be picks that are not likely to bomb. Forget about position. Which guys are "sure things?" Rogers, Brady, and Brees are pretty much sure things. Rice, McCoy, Foster are pretty much sure things. Calvin and Fitz (to a certain extent) are pretty much sure things. And Gronk and Graham are sure things. If you take any of those guys with your first or 2nd round pick (mostly first), you are not going to bomb. And that is important.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Thing is....nobody is actually projecting Gronkowski to have the same stats as last year. I currently project him for 80/1125/13, that's about 60 points less that last year in a PPR league.....and at that projection....he's still at worst a top 15 pick.'cvnpoka said:
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Here here. Thing is, some folks will take Graham preferentially thinking they are getting Gronk on sale, then pull their hair out as Graham gets a TD every other game and Gronk gets one every other half game.
rizzler
Footballguy
If you're sitting at the back end of a 12-14 man draft, and you get back to back picks. I see no better strategy ATM than going gronk&graham back2back.
It's at this moment in time, my draft strategy if im picking there. you want the "surest" things possible, especially picking at the back end, to stabilize your season. Theyll be the surest bets at that point
It's at this moment in time, my draft strategy if im picking there. you want the "surest" things possible, especially picking at the back end, to stabilize your season. Theyll be the surest bets at that point
CalBear
Footballguy
I don't see how this can possibly make sense unless you start 2TEs. Or if it's a non-TE-required league, but competing against WRs neither Gronk nor Graham are particularly sure things compared to guys like Fitzgerald.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Was a fluke like this Gronki kid. I won't be convinced just for coming back from multiple knee surgeries either. I figure why take a risk now when I can wait to see if they are enshrined before rostering them on my team.
rizzler
Footballguy
got ahead of myself. Im assuming you start a TE and there's a flex position. at the 12/13 or 14/15 spots, the "elite" are usually gone. Im thinking in specific to my league here, but taking those 2 seems to be a very wise choice atm
az_prof
Footballguy
If you can start 2 TEs, and especially if you get a PPR bonus for TEs, then it makes sense. I am assuming standard leagues when I say I wouldn't take him in the first.
CalBear
Footballguy
I don't think that Graham is a sure thing in a WR/RB/TE flex spot. He was only WR/TE#6 last year (behind C.Johnson, Gronk, J.Nelson, Welker, and V.Cruz) and was also outscored by 6 RBs. Would you really take him over Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Mike Wallace? Do you really expect 99/1310/11 from him again with everything going on in New Orleans?
rizzler
Footballguy
A few things - Yes, I would take him over wallace and white, without hesitation. Over Fitz, probably not, but not entirely improbable.I see NO doing a LOT of throwing this season. like always, if not more. So to answer your question, yes, I see Graham coming close to replicating those numbers, or better. Gronk, I clearly expect to digress a bit, but still worth the pick. just my opinions
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I probably won't take either in the first this year, but only because there will probably be enough "TE bias" in most leagues that Graham will be there in the 2nd. I think they're both likely to provide top-12 value in TE-required PPR leagues - they're both young (still likely on the way up career-wise), and they're the top weapons on two of the most prolific passing teams in NFL history.
Whats going on in NO that will affect Graham negatively? They could field Temple's defense and it would only help. I would think the Saints being in shootouts instead of up by 30 at the half would be a positive.
Realistically this is probably right- I wouldn't likely take Gronk before the end of the 1st round, and if I pick late I would seriously consider taking somebody else and rolling the dice he'd be there after the turn. If I pick middle I surely would wait and could end up Calvin/Graham in PPR, which is pretty money, especially if you can hit halfway decent on the second tier RBs. Plenty of value to tap in QBs if you miss on the big 3- just take Rivers or Eli mid draft and let your recs roll in from the rest of the team. Judging by ADP I think a draft of Calvin/Graham/Lynch/Maclin/Rivers/Wells is realistic in ppr... if somebody doesnt snag Graham in the first half of the 2nd.
CalBear
Footballguy
Oh, I dunno, how about not having a coaching staff?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Well, there is that.
Well I am glad the true reason of the thread is coming to discussion. I never doubted Gronk to be the top Tight End. But more had doubt about him being a 1st round pick in any format regardless of scoring.
If you select Gronk in the first round, it could very well be a testament that he will the best tight end ever. Greater than Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates ever.
Has either of those guys ever been a first round pick? From my knowledge going back 10 years I do not think so. In all my observations and trends in fantasy, no one has ever drafted a tight end in the first round which leads me believe that there will be some firsts this year if Gronk goes in the first.
It seems as of right now, it's still a 50/50 argument as to if Gronk should be a first round fantasy pick or not. I personally am still on the fence despite all the information provided.
If you select Gronk in the first round, it could very well be a testament that he will the best tight end ever. Greater than Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates ever.
Has either of those guys ever been a first round pick? From my knowledge going back 10 years I do not think so. In all my observations and trends in fantasy, no one has ever drafted a tight end in the first round which leads me believe that there will be some firsts this year if Gronk goes in the first.
It seems as of right now, it's still a 50/50 argument as to if Gronk should be a first round fantasy pick or not. I personally am still on the fence despite all the information provided.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
The thing about your first round pick is this, you need to hit a good solid double with it. You don't need a homerun, but conversely if you strike out, you set yourself back quite a bit. I don't see many players safer than Gronkowski to be honest. Big, young, qb in his prime, high scoring offense, coming off two great seasons. I think he would certainly be a solid double with in the park homerun potential for sure.Here is a scary thought - what if he gets better? He's only entering his third season and he's younger than Fleener.
Do the coaches throw blocks or touchdowns for the Saints? No wonder they've been suspended. Of course Payton tried to block Graham and that didnt go well... Seriously, does anybody really think thats going to affect this well established offense with Drew Brees at the helm?
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Well... he did break the records for the best tight end performance ever. Handily. But other than that there is hardly any evidence. Do you typically draft players based on their place in the historical strata, or based on what they are projected to do this season compared to the competition?
Anyone else?
If Brees doesn't play the conversation is moot.And coaching doesn't matter nearly that much. The system is in place, somebody else can be trained to do what Payton does. Maybe the efficiency falls of 5%. Brees only throws for 4800 yards. Its the players on the field that get the job done, not the smartest guy in the room. Go ask any team that has employed Mike Martz without 3 or 4 hall of famers on the offense.
CalBear
Footballguy
Yes, I do. Even if Payton remained, I would be willing to bet large amounts of money that the Saints would throw for less than 5476 yards and less than 46 TDs in 2012. With Payton gone, even matching the 2010 numbers (4620/33, which is about the 3-year average prior to 2011) seems unlikely. So let's say I project them at 4500/30; will Graham really get 1300/11 of that?
Run It Up
Footballguy
His girth cannot be ignored.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Adrian PetersonRay RiceArian FosterChris JohnsonJamaal CharlesMichael VickAndre JohnsonLeSean McCoyRashard MendenhallAaron RodgersCalvin JohnsonRoddy WhiteHow many of those guys were "doubles" in 2011? You've got a couple studs, a few guys that were so-so, and some busts. They were all coming off of great seasons in 2010, and most drafters probably thought they were making a "safe" pick, hence their first round ADP. There is risk with every single pick you can make in your draft. Taking a TE that early in your draft magnifies that risk, because you can't miss even a little bit at that position if you draft it that early. 1,110 and 10 would be another outstanding season for Gronkowski, but it won't be if he's your first round pick.
You're willing to bet large amounts of money that the Saints wont break the greatest quarterbacking performance of all time? How generous. Careful out on that limb. Lets say I project Brees at 2200 and 6. And 51 ints. Whats that look like for Graham. We can kick around arbitrary numbers all day.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I think its somewhat of a pointless argument really. If you have a top 8 or so pick, no way youre taking Gronk in the 1st and you would be stupid not to take him with your mid-late 2nd round pick if he's somehow still available, regardless of how high you are on his 2012 stock.The real question is if youre picking 10th or 11th (in a 12 man league), do you take him with your first pick or cross your fingers that he's there on the comeback in a few picks? I have a hard time seeing any other player fall to the end of the first that has as big of a drop-off between him and the next guy or 2 at the position. At least 2 of Brees, Cam, Brady should be there for your 1st pick, and 1 is likely still available for your 2nd pick. Mathews, Forte, CJ all have big red flags as a 1st pick, and no other RBs even deserve consideration. Fitz is very safe, but I dont think fantasy wise he's any better (and has less huge season potential) than the next handful of WR's.
7 of 12 "doubles" or better from that batch. 1 of the "non-doubles" was exclusively due to injury, with Andre Johnson and Vick dealing with injuries that kept them out of several games. That leaves you with Mendenhall and Chris Johnson as the only true, performance-baed "busts."Your point about there being risk with every single pick is valid, but your contention that taking a TE early magnifies that risk is inaccurate.'Grahamburn said:
If Gronkowski will get you more points than any other player available (relative to their respective positions), AND if he won't be available with your next pick, then it is a smart pick.
You seem inclined to think he won't get you more points than other players that will be available. That's your opinion, and you're welcome to it. But to make absolute statements like "Taking a tight end that early will cripple your team" is just plain wrong.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
OK? That's what I said in the first line of my post, and it's a pretty valid point. Why is Gronkowski immune to an average year? Those guys were first round picks for a reason.
How? Let's say we agree Roddy White was "average," or a "double" at WR in 2011. His ADP was 12th overall, which is where it looks like people are arguing to take Gronkowski. He finished WR7 depending on league scoring with 1,296 yards and 8 TDs. Let's say Gronk matches those numbers, which would probably make him TE1. That's great, you've acquired the top TE, but now you've given up the opportunity to take Roddy White, at a position where most leagues start 2 players and sometimes 3. How is that a wise play? What if Gronkowski ends up being a double? To me, that makes him much more risky than a WR or RB that ends up being "average." Sure, you can argue there's no way Gronk only gets 8 TDs. That's lunacy, right? I bet Roddy's owners were hoping for the 1,300+ yards and 11 and 10 TD seasons he'd had the two years prior though too.
Maybe Brady hits Welker, Hernandez, or Lloyd for a few deeper TDs this year? Maybe Gronk sees a little more coverage in the red zone this season?
Of course it is, but I can't predict the future and neither can you. We can project Gronkowski for a nice season, but odds are you're passing on a player that will put up a better fantasy season at a more premium position.
You seem inclined to think you'll be able to hit on every single pick you make in your draft after taking Gronk in the first. I pride myself on being a pretty good drafter, but I've never had a perfect draft. We all miss on players. Players we count on get injured. Taking a TE that early makes it imperative to hit on the RBs and WRs you draft later. We disagree, clearly, but if you miss on just a couple of those picks you will, in my opinion, cripple your team even if Gronkowski has a good season. Maybe it's an absolute? I guess I shouldn't assume that a few of your picks will have bad years, but chances are they will.It'll be a fun excercise at the end of the year to see how the teams with Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham fared in general.
fightingillini
Footballguy
'Kenny Powers said:
I wouldn't take Gronkowski over Foster, Rice, McCoy, MJD, Mathews, Calvin, and Rodgers, and maybe Brady depending on the QB scoring. So pick 9 or later is when you even CONSIDER Gronkowski.If you have the 11 pick in a 12 teamer and both Gronkowski and Graham are available, that decision is easy.....you take another elite player and one of them will be there at pick 14. Picking 12 is also easy, since it's very unlikely both Gronkowski and Graham will be gone before 12......you can take one of them at the turn. It's picking 9 and 10 where it gets dicey. Do you take Fitzgerald, Brees, McFadden or Chris Johnson at 9 and hope Gronkowski or Graham slides to you at pick 16? Value wise, I don't see a huge difference between the next 8 or so players after the top 5 RBs, Calvin and Rodgers are off the board. IMO I think the 9-10 spots are going to be the toughest spots in a 12 teamer this year. Again, value wise, Gronkowski and Graham are both top 15 overall IMO and worth late 1st round/early 2nd round picks.
CalBear
Footballguy
If you're in a TE-required league, and Gronkowski and White both go for 1300/8, Gronkowski will be significantly more valuable, based on scoring relative to others at their respective positions.
rizzler
Footballguy
For anyone interested (and this is solely for entertainment purposes) I did a mock draft last night, to test the Gronk/Graham waters at a very tricky position.. the #12..
Note: 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1 te/wr/rb flex, 1k, 1def (standard, I guess)
So, from the #12 spot:
1.12 - gronk
2.01 - graham
3.12 - aj green
4.01 - mike wallace
5.12 - tony romo
6.01 - doug martin
7.12 - cj spiller
8.01 - donald brown
end here for simplicity
*****************************************
Now, I got some guys as of today, that I COMPLETELY expect to go a round or more earlier come august/september. But, damn... If I was drafting as of today, Id take that team after 8 rnds in a heartbeat. Sure, my RB core isnt elite by any stretch, but I like all 3 of those guys. Brown the least, but he could very well be decent for fantasy purposes.
This exercise is essence proves nothing. It was one mock. Things seemed to turn out well. But properly executed, I think the strategy could work quite well.
Note: 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1 te/wr/rb flex, 1k, 1def (standard, I guess)
So, from the #12 spot:
1.12 - gronk
2.01 - graham
3.12 - aj green
4.01 - mike wallace
5.12 - tony romo
6.01 - doug martin
7.12 - cj spiller
8.01 - donald brown
end here for simplicity
*****************************************
Now, I got some guys as of today, that I COMPLETELY expect to go a round or more earlier come august/september. But, damn... If I was drafting as of today, Id take that team after 8 rnds in a heartbeat. Sure, my RB core isnt elite by any stretch, but I like all 3 of those guys. Brown the least, but he could very well be decent for fantasy purposes.
This exercise is essence proves nothing. It was one mock. Things seemed to turn out well. But properly executed, I think the strategy could work quite well.
lol wow at even having to spell this out.
